Archive for January, 2016

Rotographs Rankings First Run – Third Basemen

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January 28, 2016

Some of this is being repeated from the Primer piece that went up this morning. 

We’re bringing them to you earlier this year, but that also means that they’re far from set in stone so take that into consideration as you peruse them. There are still strong arms on the free agent market, let alone all the moving and shaking that happens once players start reporting to camp.

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league.  If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments.

We can also be reached via Twitter:

There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?!

Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. Like I said, it’s early. Things are going to change.

The chart is sortable and by default it’s sorted by AVG. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1. That would be 47 for Zach, Dan, and Mike, 40 for Brad, and 48 for Paul K. They are indicated in red on the chart.

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When (and why) to Ignore Projections

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January 28, 2016

Fantasy baseball is an inherently analytical game – you are trying to use a scarce resource (either dollars or draft picks) in a wiser manner than your competitors. And so it is no surprise that fantasy players have become big fans of the projection systems from ZiPS to Steamer to PECOTA and beyond. Just last week, Justin Vibber shared his ottoneu Surplus Calculator which uses Steamer projections to find expected values for MLB players.

In the ottoneu Slack community, the surplus calculator and other similar tools have become the primary manner of determining player value – if Steamer says a player will produce $30, that is the baseline. And this creates an opportunity to profit by ignoring projections.
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Bust Candidates According to Steamer: Infielders

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January 28, 2016

I ran the 2016 Steamer projections through Zach Sanders’ Fantasy Value Above Replacement system and compared the results to early ADP data. Below I’ve got a player at each infield position that the Steamer projections think are unlikely to live up to their draft day price.

Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles

Wieters coming off the board as the ninth catcher on average makes little sense. For one, drafters are counting on a big bounce back in health from a now 30-year-old catcher. Wieters has a combined 394 plate appearances in the last two seasons. Staying healthy and getting enough PA to be a relevant fantasy option in shallow mixed leagues will be Wieters’ biggest obstacle this season.

But let’s not forget that he wasn’t that great in his last healthy season in 2013. Per our end of season valuations for that year, Wieters was barely starter-caliber in 12-team mixed leagues. His biggest issue that season was a .235 batting average, which was undoubtedly somewhat affected by some bad luck on balls in play. But since that time Wieters has been striking out more, as his strikeout rate was was a career-high 23.8 percent last year in 282 PA. So even assuming better health and an absence of bad luck on balls in play, Wieters seems unlikely to hit for much average. Steamer has a low-but-reasonable projection for Wieters’ BABIP and a 20.3 percent projected strikeout rate with a projection for his average of .244.

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Birchwood Brothers 2.1: We’ll Never Be Royals

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January 28, 2016

The woods decay and fall. Man comes and tills the fields and lies beneath, and after many a summer dies Abe Vigoda. But…we’re still around! We’ve worked hard this winter, pumping irony. We’ve added five pounds of muscle—well, one of us has; the other has added ten pounds of fat—so we’re in the best shape of our lives. This season, we’re going to run more. We’re also going to walk more. Especially, though, we’re going to sit semicomatose in front of our computer screens more, burning up even more irreplaceable hours than we did last year. Yes, once again, we’re taking our two-man submersible deep into the sunless sea of fantasy-relevant stats, and, as before, when we resurface, we’ll show you our specimens.

We’re the Birchwood Brothers, honest-to-God siblings, aggregate age 124 years, lifelong stat geeks and baseball fans, unregenerate fantasy baseball addicts, and spare-time would-be craftspersons of lapidary prose. Like you, in all probability, we’ve got better things to do than this, but that doesn’t mean we do them. Having attained mediocrity in last year’s National Fantasy Baseball Championship Main Event, we’ve decided to seek new challenges. The Main Event uses a snake draft; this year, we’ll be joining the NFBC Mixed-League auction, where we figure to be even more overmatched. As an aperitif, yesterday we started an NFBC slow-draft league—15 teams, no in-season transactions, as much as 8 hours to make each pick, 50 rounds or Ragnarok, whichever comes first. We’ll also be playing in the Bluefish Blitz league, whose rules have so little in common with anyone else’s that we’ll have to prepare for it all over again. And somewhere, we’re going to find a fourth league that suits us, and if we can’t find one we like, we’ll start our own. Read the rest of this entry »


2015 Standard Deviation of Distance Leaders

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January 28, 2016

Last year, I unveiled the xHR/FB rate equation I developed that I use to help guide my HR/FB rate forecast for my Pod Projections. We’re all familiar with the average batted ball distance component of the formula. Also included is the hitter’s standard deviation of distance (SDD) of his fly balls and home runs, which has a rather high year-over-year correlation, though not as hefty as distance. That means that the leaders generally remain near the top and the bottom dwellers will rarely surge into the top quartile.

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The Sleeper and the Bust 01/27/2016 – First Base & Catcher Ranks

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January 27, 2016

Episode 302

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

We have a new email address for questions: sleeperpod@gmail.com. Send your fantasy-relevant questions. You can send keeper questions, but those are much better for Twitter. Questions most likely to get selected are those that apply more broadly, as opposed to specific trade or keeper queries. However, if you do ask a league-specific question, please include the league size and categories.

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Nationals Playing Time Battles: Hitters

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January 27, 2016

We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

We ran through the Nationals’ pitching battles yesterday. Since then, Bronson Arroyo has joined the team on a minor league contract. If he’s healthy and performing, he’ll probably push one of Tanner Roark or Joe Ross out of the rotation.

With one exception, the Nationals don’t really have any position battles. What they do have are several regulars who frequently land on the disabled list. So we’ll talk about them, their back-ups, and what the club may do between now and Opening Day.

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Rotographs Rankings First Run – Second Basemen

by
January 27, 2016

Some of this is being repeated from the Primer piece that went up this morning. 

We’re bringing them to you earlier this year, but that also means that they’re far from set in stone so take that into consideration as you peruse them. There are still strong arms on the free agent market, let alone all the moving and shaking that happens once players start reporting to camp.

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league.  If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments.

We can also be reached via Twitter:

There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?!

Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. Like I said, it’s early. Things are going to change.

The chart is sortable and by default it’s sorted by AVG. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1. That would be 50 for Zach, 56 for Dan, 46 for Mike, 48 for Brad, and 46 for Paul K. Everyone in the top 50 was on the lists of Jeff and myself so we don’t have any +1s. They are indicated in red on the chart.

Key:

  • AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
  • Adj. AVG– the average minus the high and low rankings
  • SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings

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More Keeper Questions Answered

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January 27, 2016

Hard to believe, but it’s almost February.  Almost all the top free agents have signed.  It’s almost prospect season, and it’s almost time for pitchers and catchers to report.  All these things add up to a baseball season that is almost here.

Patience.

But patience is a luxury we don’t have these days in fantasy leagues like Ottoneu that have a keeper deadline (January 31st) fast approaching.  Auction formats make player valuation even more complex, and now that it’s crunch time, tough decisions need to be made.  How comfortable are you hanging onto that $20 Corey Dickerson while the risk of a possible trade out of COL remains a real possibility in February or March? Despite the power and the incoming fences, how does Giancarlo Stanton’s unavoidable injury history influence your decision to keep at $56? How much value, if any, has Zack Greinke really lost moving to Arizona? Is he a $35 starting pitcher? Everybody loves Kyle Schwarber as the next best thing (C and OF!), but where’s the line? $20? $25? $30?

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Diamondbacks Playing Time Battles: Pitching

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January 27, 2016

Unhappy about the team’s sub-.500 record in 2015, Diamondbacks General Manager Dave Stewart has resorted to signin’, wheelin’ n’ dealin’ this offseason to seemingly make a run at a playoff spot. The majority of his moves were to bolster a starting pitching staff that ranked 11th in ERA in the National League with a 4.37 mark. Of course, I’m not here to discuss Zack Greinke or Shelby Miller. Rather, let’s talk about the guys who are not a lock to be a part of the team’s rotation and back end of the bullpen.

Rotation

Because I cannot type an entire article without mentioning Zack Greinke’s 2015 performance, I will simply note this — his LOB% ranked as the fifth highest mark ever among qualified starters. That’s running our leaderboard as far back as it goes, choosing 1871, and ending up with 9,358 pitcher seasons. Do not pay top five starter prices. That is all.

Since I’m on a luck will run out campaign (wait, aren’t I always?), I might as well mention Shelby Miller and his massive SIERA-beating ways. Wait until he hits a severe hitter’s park for the first time!

Now I feel better.

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