Diamondbacks Playing Time Battles: Pitching

Unhappy about the team’s sub-.500 record in 2015, Diamondbacks General Manager Dave Stewart has resorted to signin’, wheelin’ n’ dealin’ this offseason to seemingly make a run at a playoff spot. The majority of his moves were to bolster a starting pitching staff that ranked 11th in ERA in the National League with a 4.37 mark. Of course, I’m not here to discuss Zack Greinke or Shelby Miller. Rather, let’s talk about the guys who are not a lock to be a part of the team’s rotation and back end of the bullpen.

Rotation

Because I cannot type an entire article without mentioning Zack Greinke’s 2015 performance, I will simply note this — his LOB% ranked as the fifth highest mark ever among qualified starters. That’s running our leaderboard as far back as it goes, choosing 1871, and ending up with 9,358 pitcher seasons. Do not pay top five starter prices. That is all.

Since I’m on a luck will run out campaign (wait, aren’t I always?), I might as well mention Shelby Miller and his massive SIERA-beating ways. Wait until he hits a severe hitter’s park for the first time!

Now I feel better.

Let’s talk D-Backs starters number four and number five. At the moment, Rubby de la Rosa should open the season in that fourth slot. I’m a big fan here, even though he has taken the Nathan Eovaldi and Joe Kelly paths of possessing big velocity, but lacking the strikeouts to match. With his fastball-slider-changeup repertoire, he hasn’t had an issue inducing swings and misses. His 11.1% SwStk% ranked 19th among qualified starters.

His four-seamer peaked at 100 mph this year and averaged 94 mph, while both his slider and changeup generated SwStk% marks in the mid-to-high teens, both above league average marks. He seemingly possesses the stuff to strike out a hefty rate of batters. What’s missing, however, is the ability to induce called strikes. His looking strike rate ranked eighth worst among qualified starters in the National League (surprisingly, Max Scherzer was worst! he was probably too busy making batters swing and miss). This is no fluke as he hasn’t posted a looking strike rate approaching anywhere close to the league average in any season. Whether it’s an issue with location/command or something else, this is what he’ll need to improve upon to take the giant leap forward his underlying stuff suggests he is capable of. I’d rather bet on a spike in called strike rate than root for more swinging strikes, that’s for sure.

Perhaps slotting into the number five slot in the rotation is Robbie Ray, who was acquired from the Tigers after the 2014 season. After posting a grotesque 8.16 ERA over 28.2 innings in Detroit in 2014, Ray surprised with a solid performance, posting a 3.52 mark over 23 starts with Arizona last season. The strikeouts returned to a level hinted at by his minor league record, though his walk rate remained worse than the league average.

Ray throws a respectable fastball, especially for a lefty, that nearly reached 97 mph at its peak this year, while averaging about 93 mph. The problem is here relies on it far too often. Of starting pitchers who recorded at least 100 innings, his 71.8% fastball usage rate ranked fifth highest. Such a high fastball rate usually doesn’t lend itself to a whole lot of strikeouts. Ray has counteracted that somewhat with an excellent slider, though its effectiveness was certainly much greater than predicted given the mediocre 40/45+ scouting grades slapped on the pitch before the 2015 season began.

Since his changeup was absolutely terrible and failed to induce grounders or whiffs, he’s essentially a two-pitch pitcher. It’s no wonder that he was significantly better against left-handed batters (3.09 xFIP) than right-handers (4.39 xFIP). He makes for an interesting speculation in deeper mixed and acceptable addition in NL-Only leagues, but I’m not sure he lasts in the rotation all season.

If Ray gets the boot at some point, then Chase Anderson might receive the first shot to replace him. Anderson was a trendy sleeper heading into 2015 based on wicked results from his changeup, but he didn’t exactly pan out, as he limped to a 4.30 ERA. His control remained sterling, but both his changeup and curveball lost some swing and miss abilities and his fastball is just meh. If his elite changeup returns, he could make good on his 2015 sleeper hype in 2016 after everyone forgot about him. But that’s just an if. Still, it’s enough to take a shot in NL-Only leagues and monitor in mixed leagues once he gets his chance.

If the sparkling Rubby, Ray or Anderson do not work out, then Plan D is one of our favorite still-waiting-on-you prospects, Archie Bradley. For some reason, he has been a top prospect with just good, but not elite, strikeout rates, and no control whatsoever. His career minor league walk rate sits at an unacceptable 12.4%, which means he will never make a positive impact in the Majors until he learns to throw strikes at a better clip. During his eight ugly starts with the D-Backs in 2015, his poor 58.6% strike percentage would have easily been worst among all qualified starters in the National League. If you’re wondering, the next lowest mark is 61%. He wasn’t even close. And where’s the velocity? His fastball peaked at just 94.3 mph. Newsflash: I’m not a fan.

Bullpen

Who would have thought the a 35-year-old side-arming righty ground ball machine who averaged just 83.9 mph with his fastball would collect 30 saves and post a microscopic 1.85 ERA? A .218 BABIP won’t happen again, but even his SIERA, which hasn’t been above 3.00 since 2010, tells us that this peculiar pitcher is good, just not your prototypical closer. But there are risks — given his delivery, he’s less effective against lefties and cannot always luck his way into minimizing the damage they inflict. Since his strikeout rate is pathetic for a closer, I wouldn’t invest too heavily in him.

If Ziegler begins to show his age, there are sleepers galore here in this pen that will make Ziegler owners nervous. One of those is Daniel Hudson, who returned from his 12th TJ surgery. He’s had 12 now, right? Not surprisingly, transitioning into a relief role boosted his velocity and strikeout rate. His 13% SwStk% was driven by three different pitches that induced a SwStk% of at least 11%. Look at that, he still owns a starter’s arsenal! He’s a much more traditional closer candidate than Ziegler, but I think Ziegler would have to pitch himself out of the job, with Hudson having little chance of pitching well enough to move into the role.

If you’re not into Hudson and his health history, then perhaps you like guys with cool names. So Silvino Bracho may interest you. He’s a 23-year-old who has posted a video game like 36.7% strikeout rate in the minors, with good control to boot. It was just 12 innings in Arizona, but he posted a 15.4% SwStk%, thanks to 15% SwStk% marks from both his fastball and slider and a 40% (!!) mark on his changeup. Okay, it was just 10 changeups, but, whatever. He has just those 12 innings on his Major League ledger so it would be a surprise if he racks up more than a save or two. But even without more than a handful of saves, his strikeouts and ratios alone could earn him some value in NL-Only leagues.