More Keeper Questions Answered
Hard to believe, but it’s almost February. Almost all the top free agents have signed. It’s almost prospect season, and it’s almost time for pitchers and catchers to report. All these things add up to a baseball season that is almost here.
Patience.
But patience is a luxury we don’t have these days in fantasy leagues like Ottoneu that have a keeper deadline (January 31st) fast approaching. Auction formats make player valuation even more complex, and now that it’s crunch time, tough decisions need to be made. How comfortable are you hanging onto that $20 Corey Dickerson while the risk of a possible trade out of COL remains a real possibility in February or March? Despite the power and the incoming fences, how does Giancarlo Stanton’s unavoidable injury history influence your decision to keep at $56? How much value, if any, has Zack Greinke really lost moving to Arizona? Is he a $35 starting pitcher? Everybody loves Kyle Schwarber as the next best thing (C and OF!), but where’s the line? $20? $25? $30?
So while the season is almost here, keeper decisions are right in front of us today. It’s time to buckle down and make the tough calls. Brad has already done a great job answering a lot of keeper questions, and just in case you missed the Surplus Calculator you’ll want get familiar with that tool quickly. But today we’ll use these comments as the Ottoneu edition of keeper questions answered (though all keeper questions are welcome), and as a bonus, since the January 31st deadline also serves as a trade deadline in Ottoneu, all your trade questions are welcome too. These decisions often go hand in hand.
So, which player represents your toughest call this week? How are other teams influencing your final roster decisions? What are the consequences of keeping too many players? What role are projections playing in your decision? Is it worth trading for a player that might otherwise be cut by their current owner just for the added security of knowing you won’t have to bid on him in your auction?
Fire away below. Our Ottoneu team (and readers) will help you make these January 31st deadline decisions a little easier.
Trey is a 20+ year fantasy veteran and an early adopter of Ottoneu fantasy sports. He currently administers the Ottoneu community, a network of ~1,200 fantasy baseball and football fans talking sports daily. More resources here: http://community.ottoneu.com
Do you see Travis Shaw getting serious AB’s for Boston this year? If so, what is his upside? Hit really well in limited duty last year and showed power in the minors.
He has MLB talent, but I don’t think 2016 will be good for him with playing time. I like him more in 2017 when Big Papi leaves and DH opens up
I don’t see a ton of AB’s for Shaw in BOS, but even for those he might receive I wouldn’t have high expectations. First base prospects are often disappointing because the bar is so high. Keep him on your radar, but I wouldn’t give up much to acquire him at this point until skill and playing time become more clear.
10 team, 8×8 league, H2H, 1 win.
Additional categories are Hitting: H, K, BB. Pitching: L, H, BB.
Need to decide one more keeper from the following (round in parenthesis)
Votto(3)
Puig(7)
W Davis(10) Typically wouldn’t consider a closer (or SP), but additional cats favor relievers soo much. Thanks!
I think I would still choose Votto here. I see his 2016 much closer to his 2015 than what Steamer is currently projecting. Looks like he costs you a higher round premium vs. Puig and Davis, but his low risk more than makes up for that in my opinion.
5×5 final keeper? Ramos or B. Crawford – each $6
Crawford me me, easily. I’m a believer in some of the changes he made last year, and SS is so shallow.
Confident A. Rendon is a top 5 3B if healthy this season?
The top 5 in Machado, Arrenado, Donaldson, Bryant, Frazier would be extremely tough to crack.
If you’re playing Ottoneu you should be slotting him into 2B instead of 3rd. If he’s not 2B eligible in your league I do think he can be a strong 3B with nice upside. Health may always been the key factor for Rendon. I don’t see him as Top 5 at 3B, however.
I agree w/ tour top 4. I don’t think Frazier is a lock for Top 5. Rendon was 4th in MVP voting 2 years ago, at 23 years old. Frazier has the power but, I don’t think he’s a guy that will consistently be Top 5 at his position.
he started 59 games at 2B last year and 19 at 3B. If he is not 2B eligible in your league, your league is broken.
Frazier also has the speed game. Should hit many more homers and steal more bases than Rendon. I don’t see the avg diff big enough to make it up.
Similarly, I could keep Rendon or Sano.
Sano’s upside seems much higher, but Rendon’s already had a very good year in 2014 (albeit possibly a fluke).
Leaning Sano because Rendon burned me last year.
16 Team, 8 keepers, no cost, can keep forever.
Trout/Kershaw/Betts/Altuve/Chapman/Cruz
Pick my last two, Kang/Pujols/R.Iglesias/Severino.
If it’s me, I hold Kang and Iglesias.
I don’t often side with pitchers, but since it’s “keep forever”, I’d take the youth pretty easily there and go with Iglesias and Severino.
My vote would be Kang/Iglesias.
Trout at $72 and I don’t see a way his owner can fit him in as a keeper. Potentially 3-4 teams total bidding for his services at a 60-70 range. Wait til auction and hope for the best or trade an at cost keeper to avoid the bidding war?
The answer to this question really depends on where your own team is on the win curve for 2016. Do you hope to compete with Trout and would you be a favorite with him? If so, it really depends on what you’d have to give up to do it. However, if you’re not sure you can compete even with Trout (or know you are rebuilding), I’d actually be more aggressive in trying to acquire him now, knowing you can trade him in-season for a king’s ransom. $72 is tough to build a competitive team around, but if he hits they auction, you may be bidding against rebuilding teams, too, at which point price becomes almost secondary.
5×5. Do you like springer in 4 or Cruz on 5? Thanks!
Go with Springer. Good FanGraphs article on his today, and he’s on the right side of the momentum curve. Could be a big year for Springer.
NL Only Auction $260 roster
Which do you recommend keeping?
Trea Turner $10, Kolton Wong $16, Jose Peraza $5, Corey Seager $8? I have Peraza and Seager in minors and don’t need to be called up until after 150abs, but I will have a log jam sometime soon.
Also, with not many 1st baseman available, is it ok to keep Hundley $4 at catcher and move Posey $28 to first?
The easy answer here is Seager, and it isn’t close. He’s head and shoulders above these other guys and will start in LAD right out of the gate. Wong would be a distant 2nd in my opinion probably.
I would do everything you possibly can to play Posey at catcher, where he is tremendously more valuable.
Agree with Trey. Can you trade Hundley for a better first basemen than what you’d get out of Hundley? Posey is going to play so much, that 600 at bats of a decent first basemen + 600 from Posey = way more than 600 Posey and 400 Hundley.
Should I keep Kolten Wong at $17 ($320 total budget) or will he become a low-in-the lineup platoon hitter? Also, do you foresee Hector Rondon ($9) being the Cubs closer all year?
Seems expensive for Wong (is this NL only?). I don’t think he ends up a platoon bat, but the STL acquisition of Gyorko gives me some pause that they may be concerned about that. Without knowing more about your format, I’d lean to cut Wong at that price and re-target him in your draft.
I don’t have any reason to think Rondon won’t be a serviceable closer all season right now.
In a 10-team $20 23-player AL only, Is it too much to offer a $1 Holland, $4 Gallo, $3 Brad Miller, $2 Boxberger and my #3 minor league draft pick for a $19 Betts?
Not sure if it matters, but my league is non-standard with 23 players (14 hitters, 9 pitchers)
Offense 10-point cats are HR, AVG, TB+BB, R+RBI-HR with Net SB as a 5-point category.
Pitching 10-points for ERA, WHIP, K, Net W, and Net SV as a 5-point category
I’m not familiar with that format, but that offer probably depends on how you feel about Gallo. I still think he could turn into a slugger that would fit that format pretty well, but if you’re sour on him I think Betts is a great get.
mixed 12 team keeper league, assuming can’t trade…keep or cut?
– Trea Turner $5 (MLB active roster)
– Braun $33
– Bruce $15
– Kemp $21
– Span $5
– Jennings $5
– Kennedy $2
– Shields $14
thanks
You didn’t mention a format, but I would probably only keep Trea Turner out of that group.
14-team OBP league. Can keep 6 forever:
Correa, Rizzo, Bryant, Betts, Schwarber, S. Marte, Springer, Arrieta, deGrom, Cole
I think the first 4 are must-keepers, but hard to pick 2 out of the remaining bunch.
Take two of the pitchers. I wouldn’t keep Schwarber as you’ll be starting 3 Cubs, and the first 4 guys are well-rounded category dudes. Grab some pitching. I’d take deGrom and Cole.
If it were me I would keep Correa/Rizzo/Bryant/Betts/Schwarber/Cole.
5×5 roto – keep 3 – can keep for 2 years – draft round in parenthesis
Schwarber (29)
Grichuk (29)
Aaron Hicks (29)
Josh Reddick (29)
Trevor Plouffe (29)
Syndergaard (29)
Steven Matz (29)
Yu Darvish (20)
Luis Severino (29)
Aaron Nola (29)
Thanks
Schwarber and Syndergaard for me.
Schwarber and Syndergaard are no doubters, after that I would probably take Matz or Severino.
I was all set to drop my 7$ Melky Carbrera, but the Ottoneu surplus calculator is putting him worth 16$ which is a pretty big surplus. However I look at his Zips released today and they are really bleh. I really cant see him going for more than 5$ if I dropped him and tried to get him again. Advice?
I’m definitely taking the under on $16 from the calculator. I’m leaning drop where I own him at 11. At $7 I might keep, but I wouldn’t judge you for dropping (and potentially trying to grab him for 3 or 4)
For what it’s worth Melky is $9 on my personal sheet right now, with his ZiPS factored in. So I definitely think he is worth keeping at $7, but he very well could auction at or under that price.
Um, shouldn’t you have a disclaimer like, “Take note, I’m an emotionless robot, my values may differ from yours” on your posts? 🙂
Justin is absolutely a robot when it comes to $ values. He’d cut his own mother if she didn’t show surplus in his calculator.
Beep boop.
Hey Trey, I’m looking to make a stretch run for 2016-2017 in my AL-only contract keeper, my last years with Trout. I have a $10 Keuchel and a $6 Kluber, and can keep them at that salary for 2016 only, or extend them for $4 a year (e.g. Keuchel at $14 a year for 2016-2017, or $18 a year for 2016-2018) How long would you extend them?
I’m currently planning to extending Keuchel to $14 a year for 2016-2017 and Kluber to $14 for 2016-2018, but I’m unsure if I should be less stingy.
I’m not Trey, but I don’t think you should be less stingy. I worry that the regression monster will rear his ugly head with Keuchel given his middling velocity and miniscule Zone % (as Eno mentioned in an article a few weeks ago). I don’t have the same concerns with Kluber, but keeping a 30+ year old pitcher beyond two years is always a risk.
Not an Ottoneu but since you said ALL keeper questions are welcome here you go!
Trying to decide between Miguel Sano (DH) and Xander Bogaerts (SS) as my final keeper. Worried about Sanos Ks and Bogs possible regression.
League format is 12 team Head to Head Points league. Other keepers are EE, Altuve, Betts, Greinke and possibly Marte.
Is there a clear cut choice or should I consider packaging one or two guys for a top player? (To then keep). Thanks!
If you’re keeping EE (DH, power), keeping Sano might be redundant (even thought OF elig. is possible). I like Xander’s profile a lot, and with a tweak he can up his power/HR quite a bit. He’s already shown his contact abilities. Go XB.
I’m high on Sano, and think he could profile to look quite a bit like Stanton as a hitter, so I would definitely keep him. I also think Xander is a top SS option, so to me the decision isn’t either Sano/Bogaerts but which one of EE/Greinke/Marte I would let loose, and Greinke is the answer there for me.
Refsnyder $6 Ottoneu Fangraphs points. Looking to compete this year, I don;t need Ref to be in the line up but is he worth the salary just to hold?
I’m dropping him at 3 in one league. You can likely get him back for less than 6, and if he goes for more there are plenty of other players with upside you can grab and I don’t think you’ll be suffering for letting Ref go.
thank you.
I agree with Tom on Refsnyder.
In a NL-only auction league where new players entering the league (unowned minor leaguers or players traded from AL) can be acquired via auction, with unlimited waiver wire picks and 4 free agent picks, does it make sense to adopt a stars and scrubs strategy and bid aggressively/troll the wire/wheel and deal to upgrade the scrubs?
It might, as long as adopting stars/scrubs doesn’t mean you are paying more for the scrubs than you should. I don’t know that any NL or AL-only league is deep enough for stars & scrubs to really work though.
Under what conditions can you keep a guy whos projected value is 10$ (or more) less what you own him for. Following the surplus calculator, only 5 players should be owned for over 40$ but obviously so many more guys will be kept over 40, 50$. Is there a case to keep a 42$ Justin Upton or Joey Bats, if they have values at 25$
Joe’s article about too many keepers would advise you to almost always cut Upton or Bautista in your example, and I’m inclined to agree. If you think a player will go for a much higher price than his value in the auction, just sit back, relax, and watch some other team waste their money!
Is there an article somewhere about this “win-curve” idea? I have a hard time believing that only 5 players should be kept over 40$ (in otto 5×5).
The 5×5 values in the Surplus Calculator are definitely subject to scrutiny, I prepared those without being in a 5×5 league myself, so it’s entirely possible that my top end values are too low. On the other hand, just because more than five guys over $40 will be kept, doesn’t mean that they should.
16 teams, 5×5 roto, weekly h2h. keep 4.
choices: arrieta, thor, edwin, cano, beltre, schwarber, soler, heyward
a little help?
Arrieta, Thor, Edwin, Schwarber
thanks alex!
Standard 5×5 roto, $260 auction budget; Keeping Schwarber ($8) and Lindor ($8), need 3 more out of the following options; D Salazar ($8), Odor ($11), M Franco ($8), Rendon ($13), B Gardner ($16)? Thanks!
Salazar, Franco, Odor
Some Otto 5×5 keep/cut decisions(400$ budget, plan to compete this season):
Greg Bird $4
Jose Peraza $7
Javier Baez $8
Joe Ross $5
Thanks to anyone who has an opinion!
I think Ross is an easy keep. I love Bird and would bet he gets PA from a vet’s injury. I don’t know enough about Baez’s trade situation, so PA will be an issue. I think Peraza is a cut/trade for you since he is clearly blocked.
I agree with Greg’s choices here. I’d probably try to trade Baez if possible unless you’re not in contention and you can afford sit on him and see what happens. Peraza I’m avoiding in FGPTS, but in 5×5 obviously the steal potential will boost his value.
Keep Bird, Ross. Cut Peraza. The more realistic my chances of competing for a title in 2016, the more likely I would be to cut Baez there, but it’s the hardest decision on your list.
I think I might keep all four of those guys, the only one I hesitate on is Peraza.
I have Rubby de la Rosa, Kyle Hendricks, Chase Anderson, and Jimmy Nelson all for $3 each, but they’re my no. 6-9 starters based on my other keepers. In isolation, I like them all for that price, and I’m already below $300, but should I keep them all? If I gave up one, it should be Anderson, right?
I think you might be wise to keep 9 starters on your roster, since everyone always deals with injuries or unexpected bad performance. I think you might be able to save a couple bucks and pick up $1 players in the draft if you want to cut one or more of them loose. I’d definitely keep Hendricks, and I’d consider tossing back Nelson or Anderson.
These are all streamers essentially. Agree with Tom that Hendricks belongs at the top of that list. I would cut Rubby, and would lean to cut Nelson and Anderson because if you’re just looking for SP to stream, your options are almost limitless in the auction.
Call it Cubs bias, but Hendricks is a no doubt keeper at $3. I would probably cut at least two of the other three though.
What’s the most you’d keep Drew Pomeranz for? I think he’s an intriguing pitcher in the right spot, but he doesn’t seem to have clear fantasy value right now.
I’d probably be comfortable taking a flier on Pomeranz at < $5 in Ottoneu.
Agree – I own Pomeranz at 4 and I’m pretty happy but I wouldn’t want to spend TOO much more and risk getting burned.
OPS and QS 12 team league. Keep 6 forever: Correa, Betts, Votto, Greinke, Keuchel, Heyward, Cain, Buxton. Which 2 do I throw back?
Assuming equal costs, I think you’re throwing back Buxton and Keuchel. Pitching depth in a 12 teamer is massive and Buxton still has enough question marks where you should be able to redraft at a good price.
The keep “forever” gives me the reason I need to take a bigger risk on Buxton here.
A lot of good options here. Correa, Betts, Heyward, Votto are locks. I think I’d take Keuchel and Buxton as your final two. Buxton is obviously the riskiest of the list but sometimes you need to live dangerously when you have five other great options. Reward could be big.
Keep 5 R RBI HR OBP SLG
Keeping Harper ($26) Votto ($21) Correa ($3) Pollock ($2). Final spot down to Springer ($27) or Odor ($0). Not sure what to do.
Is Odor actually $0? If so, I think you pretty much have to go him over Springer.
$0 for Odor? Yeah, at that price, I’d choose him. Springer is great, but the price difference here makes Odor an easier call
20-man dynasty league 6×6 H2H with OPS and Holds as the extra cats.
Positions are C,1B,2B,3B,SS,LF,CF,RF,UTIL,5 SP, 7 RP, 5 bench spots, 5 DL.
We keep 20 players based on a tier system, relying on last year’s ranking. We also have a minor league system with up to 8 players.
Right now, my keepers look like this:
TIER 1
——-
Goldschmidt
Bumgarner
TIER 2
——
Kipnis
Longoria
Melancon
TIER 3
——
DeShields
Shelby Miller
McHugh
Verlander
Bruce/Reyes/Fiers
TIER 4
——
Wieters
Buxton
Hicks
Grichuk
César Hernández/Cron
Hundley
Stroman
Jeffress
Motte
Conley/Chi Chi González
Drops include Nelson Cruz (because he’s Tier 1, and can only keep 2 of those
), and a bunch of relievers.
My biggest quandary right now is deciding between Bruce, Reyes and Fiers. Although I have Tim Anderson and Alen Hanson in my minors, I would definitely keep Reyes under normal circumstances. However, his possible suspension (and bench clogging, should it happen) really scares me.
Also, I’m intrigued as to whether keep Hundley in a single catcher league. I think he would at least have more value than Cron or Hernández, allowing me to trade either him or Wieters.
Thoughts?
I’m staying away from Reyes for the reason you mentioned. When there’s a massive unknown, I’m steering clear. I’d choose Bruce over Fiers.
As for Hundley, he has a .356 BABIP last year. I think we see pretty serious regression this year and that probably puts him borderline Top 12. I’d prefer keeping Wieters and trying to trade Hundley, who may have more trade value coming off last season.
Thanks!
Can keep 20 forever at no cost, points league:
I have three catchers and need to use one as trade bait to get an OF upgrade. Travis d’Arnaud (could find himself in the OF), Kevin Plawecki (has no job until he gets traded or d’Arnaud moves positions), and Jorge Alfaro (will he make enough MLB contact when he comes up?)…which one to trade?
I’d definitely keep D’Arnaud there, and I wouldn’t hesitate to package both Alfaro and Plawecki to land an OF (if you can).
I’m with Trey, definitely keep TdA.
In a Roto league where we keep 15, redraft 10.
I’m projecting to keep eight hitters and seven pitchers. Interested in seeing how you all view my logic (or lack thereof!).
Hitters:
Keeping – Schwarber, Odor, C. Seager, Bryant, Pollock, Conforto, Co. Dickerson,
Dropping/trading – Calhoun, J. Pederson, Moreland, Grandal
Pitchers:
Keeping – Bumgarner, Salazar, Wacha, Corbin, Matz, J. Ross, Berrios
Dropping/trading – Osuna, Stroman, Teheran, Ray, D. Norris, Buccholz
That’s 14 keepers…my thought is to try and get more speed on offense by dealing either Joc, Teheran or Stroman for someone like Ben Revere. Obviously things will change if Dickerson leaves Denver. I’d then probably roll with Joc, because Dickerson is atrocious away from Coors.
What do y’all think?
Shocked you would keep Wacha, Corbin, Matz, and Ross over Stroman. Is that strictly because you are looking to net a high return or you really don’t find him to be as valuable as those guys I mentioned?
I would keep Stroman over Ross, and I think I’d also keep Grandal over Ross. Berrioss is the toughest decision here because I’m a big fan and I think he has a productive, early debut this year.
I’m honestly basing it on his height. I’ve gone back and looked using the BRef Play Index, and the only sub-5’10 starter who even approached decent was Flash Gordon, and that didn’t even last more than a few years. I could be crazy for Manning that a consideration, but if I could deal Stroman and my 1.10 in the redraft for 1.1, and then draft an A.J. Reed or Mazara I’d be all over it.
14 team mixed keeper league, keep 9 this year then keep 7 next year. i have too many 3B, who do i keep among:
Adrian Beltre
Justin Turner
Maikel Franco
thanks jeff!
Close call, but go Beltre, Franco, Turner. But any order wouldn’t be wrong as I have them all fairly closely ranked.
Hard to say without knowing the format (5×5?) but definitely agree Beltre and Franco over Turner if you’re picking 2.
I dumped huge amounts of salary in a 20 team keeper league. 25 man roster, 260 cap, keep 12 or less each year (stay under 260 for the 25 man roster). I have 150 to spend at my auction and traded the following:
41 dollar Longoria for a $2 Duda
27 dollar Encarnacion and 3 dollar stroman for a 19 dollar frazier and 2 dollar Dickerson
22 dollar N. Walker for a 3 dollar castellanos
1 dollar nola for an 11 dollar Puig
Iglesias, Berrios and Karns for a 35 dollar Bautista
What do you think?
41 dollar Longoria for a $2 Duda (great deal)
27 dollar Encarnacion and 3 dollar stroman for a 19 dollar frazier and 2 dollar Dickerson (great deal)
22 dollar N. Walker for a 3 dollar castellanos (good deal)
1 dollar nola for an 11 dollar Puig (excellent deal)
Iglesias, Berrios and Karns for a 35 dollar Bautista (this is the only one that may hurt long term, but it could still work out well for 2016 with Bautista)
10 teams, 18 keepers, no cost, can keep forever. I’m pretty set with 12 bats and so I’m looking at 6 pitchers. I’m thinking:
Cole, Harvey, Carrasco, Stroman, Allen, plus one more from:
Liriano, Zimmermann, Iglesias, Smyly, Wheeler, Gausman, Velasquez
Who’s the last guy? Like that list or make any changes?
Seconding Trey’s advice to some other owners, Iglesias has the best upside in a keep-forever league. I could see an argument for Velasquez as well, but in any case in a keep-forever I’d prioritize those high-upside young players and target veterans like Zimmerman or Liriano in the draft.
Good advice. I like this way of thinking. Thanks!
10 team 5×5 Keep up to 7 (Rounds 1-7 pick) and can keep forever.
Keeping Giancarlo, Altuve, Frazier, Chris Davis, and Corey Seager.
Pick two more out of Kimbrel, Puig, Joc Pedersen, Conforto or Carlos Carrasco. Closers are always over-valued in this league.
Tough choices here. Stanton, Altuve, and Seager seem like locks. Davis is a nice choice.
I love Conforto but I actually like Carrasco and Puig better than Frazier as a keeper pretty easily.
In these “keep forever” formats I usually lean toward taking the more risky guys like Puig because the upside is so much higher (if it works out).
If you are a contender seems like Liriano is your best bet. If you are playing for the future Gausman and Iglesias probably have the highest upside.
Zimm…not even close.
Standard 5×5 h2h league. 3 keepers, price increases 1 round each year. I’ve narrowed my choices to these four:
Machado (1 year left, 12th round)
AJ Pollock (3 years, 18th)
Miguel Sano (3 years, 14th)
Xander Bogaerts (3 years, 15th)
It pains me to have to throw one of these back… but who’s the odd man out?
I’d throw back Machado, only since he has 1 year left. The rest as long term keepers are bargains…but then again, so is Machado at R12.
It would have to be between XB and Pollock for me. Machado is just too good to throw back, especially as a 12th rounder.
I’m honestly stumped on this question, too. I think I’d choose Pollock to cut, but I could feel differently in five minutes…
Uh oh Trey. In my myriad scenarios I’ve played out, Pollock is the only one who is kept 100% of the time.
16 team mixed league 5×5
Danny Salazar (10th round) or Carlos Martinez (12th round)?
Do you have a third choice? Just kidding…go with Salazar.
Salazar. But it’s close.
Change that to Martinez. I read too quickly and though it said Victor Martinez.
13-team mixed 5×5 league, $260 budget. Keep 4.
Keeping:
M.Betts: $15
G.Springer: $10
Two spots for 5 guys:
N.Syndergaard: $6
K.Schwarber (C-eligible): $10
X.Bogaerts: $13
C.Kluber: $15
G.Cole: $16
Leaning right now towards the two hitters, but throwing back Thor at $6 seems criminal. Thoughts?
Keep Syndergaard and Schwarber
I think a good argument could be made to keep any of those guys, and honestly Schwarber might be last on the list there.
Eric Hosmer or Freddie Freeman – no cost to keep.
I’d take Freeman pretty easily
10 team H2H league. OBP and SLG offensive caveat. ERA, OBA, WHIP on the pitching side. 7 keepers.
Hitters: Dozier, Sano, Pederson, Betts, Marte, C. Seager, B. Crawford
Pitchers: Kluber, Strasburg, Archer, Richards
Betts, Seager, Sano, Kluber, Strasburg, Archer, Pederson
You’re keeping Pederson over Marte?
I have to pick three of these: Stroman in the 25th; Kang in the 25th; Brandon Crawford in the 25th, Wade Davis in the 22nd; or JD Martinez in the 6th. I can keep them all for three more years. What say you?
Stroman, Kang, JDM
I think Stroman and Crawford are easy 1-2s. Your last depends on roster construction. If you need power, take JD. If your league favors closers, take Davis. If you’re contending this year or can wait, take Kang.
Keep Votto at $50 in Ottoneu FG Points league? Have many other positions covered with solid, underpriced younger players, so I COULD afford it, but not sure if I should. Have no other 1b currently on roster so I’d have to either try to get Votto back in the draft or get another 1b in the draft.
Thanks!
I think Votto is worth $50, but I don’t think most owners believe that, so I’d cut him and re-target him and hope you get him for a few dollars less. I’d be surprised if he goes > $50
If I owned a $50 Votto in FGPts I would be cutting him, assuming I can’t trade him.
Points League
Hitters: TB = 1, R/RBI/BB = 1, K = -1, SB = 2, CS = -1
Pitchers: W = 7, QS = 3, L = -5, S = 8, Out = 1, K = 1, BB/H/ER = -1
5 keepers take top 5 draft spots, so no debate about value relative to draft position.
I’m keeping Posey/Goldschmidt/Bautista/Scherzer, but I’m debating the fifth keeper.
Choice comes down to Jose Abreu for a util slot or Price/G. Cole as another SP.
I don’t see Abreu being much better than last year, which was about 420 pts compared to Price/Cole who were over 700. While I think hitters are more stable year to year which had me keeping Abreu I’m starting to change my mind and leaning towards a pitcher, although I have no idea if I prefer Price or Cole if I do keep a pitcher.
You can’t just compare points vs. points – it’s RELATIVE points. If Price/Cole are 700, I’m sure even some crappy pitchers put up 420 pts. But of course you wouldn’t take Ervin Santana over Abreu.
You probably know all that… I’d take Abreu. First two years in the league, he’s sitting at 30/100/.300 both seasons. That average is the hidden value.
SP are tricky to evaluate. We have a very low IP cap (1250) so mediocre SP are not very worthwhile. But elite starting pitchers that can get you ~ 3.5 points per inning pitched have quite a bit of value.
Given that we get a point for a single and a point for a BB, it’s probably more appropriate to look at a hitters OBP rather than average, and Abreu’s OBP isn’t that great, atlhough projections seem to think he’s going to be closer to 2014’s BB% than 2015.
Hitters getting -1 for a K and +1 for a BB makes for some weird evaluations.
Agreed. I think it’s between Price and Abreu here. This is where I’d scan your league and try to anticipate what the pool might look like at 1B and SP. Usually safer to keep the hitter, but I lean Price here.
12-team H2H Standard League (OBP instead of AVG);
Pick 4 keepers(keep forever, no cost):
Stanton
Betts
Sano
Schwarber
Bogaerts
C.Seager
Heyward
Rendon
Stanton, Betts, Sano are the top 3.
Rendon doesn’t make the cut, and I’d prefer Seager to XB long term. Most would choose Schwarber here but I think there are still some growing pains coming in the near term.
I’m in the minority but I might choose Heyward. Not sure you can go wrong with Seager or Schwarber there, either.
A 17 team league with and $260 auction draft. Teams have 25 players (10 pitchers, 15 position players), and I can keep 8 players. Is $25 too much for Chris (with a C) Davis? I like him, and don’t think I can get him for $25 in our auction, but that price is kind of high. What would you do?
Assuming Davis is eligible at OF in your league, I would still keep at that price
I’m having a hard time deciding between J Upton and Xander for my final keeper. I’m more focused on winning now versus later.
Can you provide more context George (scoring, teams, salary, etc.)?
10 team roto (obp/r/hr/rbi/sb) No salary. Keepers just replace rounds. Either player would replace my 7th round pick.
Right away I thought “Upton”, but when I pulled up my projections they were valued surprisingly similarly.
My projections are for a 13-team mixed league (5×5, standard rosters). I don’t make any adjustments for positional value; if you give ANY kind of bump to SS over OF, I think it tilts the balance to the X-man.
Agree this is a close call. I don’t see a big power spike for XB coming like many do, but SS is so shallow it’s worth taking the gamble that XB breaks out even more this year.
yahoo league, 10 teams, the (relatively) unique scoring cats we have include BA, obp, slg, & errors… for pitchers its pretty standard except we score k/bb ratio in addition to most standard cats.
keep 2: shwarber, bryant, or sano.
keep 2: de grom, jose fernandez, or matt harvey.
thanks.
Errors!?
Keep Bryant, and Sano
Keep JFer and Harvey
interesting: i asked this same question during the last “ask an expert keeper questions” forum and jeff sullivan (i think) said keep bryant/schwarber & j-fer/de grom.
It’s an easier call for me taking Sano over Schwarber than it is taking Harvey over deGrom. Both Sano and Schwarber have some red flags for sure, but I think Sano becomes more valuable more quickly
Struggling to decide what to do with prospects. Is a $4 David Dahl pointless to keep when I have $2 Ryan McMahon, $2 Jose de Leon and $3 Giolito as my prospects currently?
Is this Ottoneu Jameson? If so, I’d try to let my league answer this question for me by shopping Dahl heavily over the next few days. If the offers are low or non-existent, I would cut and re-target him (I would lean that way anyway).
yeah It’s ottneu. I haven’t had much luck shopping him.
6×6 keep seven, already have Schwarber, Goldie, Harper, machado locked in. Now. need 3 from Bautista, Freeman, MadBum, Lester, Xander?
Lots of Xander questions today!
Freeman, MadBum, Xander
I have room for 3 guys at 2B/SS/MI. Options are:
Odor, Kipnis, Tulo, Desmond
It’s a no cost, keep forever league, so Odor is a no-brainer. How about the other 2?
In that format Desmond is the odd man out.
I’d still like to see where Desmond lands, but he’s probably the odd man out.
I play in a standard mixed-league 12 team head to head keeper league with a $250 draft budget (8 keepers, retain value for 3 years)
Keeping: Chris Davis (19), Tulowitzki (16), Brantley (1), Yelich (4), Jose Ferandez (11) and Stroman (0). Trying to fill the last two spots with one bat and one arm.
Would you keep Wainwright or Darvish for 0 dollars? Both are in their first year of eligibility. I am keeping Brantley (1 dollar) and only have 1 DL spot, so I’m wary of keeping Darvish despite liking his upside and floor more than an aging Wainwright. I also have Iglesias (0).
Second, I’m considering keeping Billy Burns (3) over Billy Hamilton (1). Am I crazy to trade 20 saves for a player with slightly better counting stats, considering the Reds offensive has been gutted? Would Ozuna (2), Grichuk (2) or Eugenio Suarez (0) be a better option to use a keeper spot on, which would lead me to target steals in the draft (or punt the category).
Thanks for your advice.
I think, given your DL situation, keep R. Iglesias. You never know how the vets might respond, and Iglesias has nice upside that will give value Day 1. Given the recent scarcity of steals/speed and your current power bats being kept, I’d stick to Burns/Hamilton. Between the two I’d keep Hamilton because of your head-to-head format. He could pounce for a bunch of steals on any given week but his bad counting stats can’t weigh you down too badly. Remember he has Joey Votto hitting behind him.
I also would lean Iglesias/Darvish over Wainwright/Brantley, there’s there’s more risk on the first side. Both Darvish and Brantley likely out through May, or longer.
Also lean Hamilton over Burns.
Hey man, thanks for doing this.
Would you want Rendon, Carlos Gomez or Yasiel Puig in 7×7 11 team (5 keeps per team) with obp/slg and avg too.
C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 3OF, 2UT
If you meant would any be viable keepers in your league, yes, and I’d rank them Puig, Rendon, Gomez, but I’d lean towards just cutting Gomez.
If you meant which of the three you should pick, I’d say Puig.
Agree on Puig here.
How do you value middle relievers who have ok, but not crazy stats, but a non-zero shot at closing at some point, like Jumbo Diaz, Ottavino, Dan Hudson, etc, do you ever go more than 2-3$ on them?
As keepers, never, but in the draft room, you could dumpster dive doing that. Better just waiting mid-season to grab like 2015’s Ramos/Tolleson/Davis etc.
I think you have to have to have a long list of those possible pop up closers and treat them all equally (in terms of potential role), but scale them based on skills. Obviously guys who have better peripherals would be a higher priority, but I would try to avoid getting excited about any of them and just treat them as fungible $1 watchlist targets. In other words, if I’m speculating on these guys, I’d rather do it during the season than in the auction. But that’s easier said than done…
8 team keep forever with CI/MI spots and 5 OF per team and 7 SP slots, keep 14. Already keeping:
Schwarber C
Miggy 1B
Kipnis 2B
Odor 2B
Franco 3B
McCutcheon OF
Bautista OF
Betts OF
Pollock OF
Jose Fernandez SP
Kluber SP
Syndergaard SP
Rodon SP
Stuck on the last spot. Trying to decide between Trea Turner and Stroman. Part of my loves Stroman and thinks he’s a potential ace, but the other part of me thinks he might be more of a groundball guy without the elite K rate going forward. And looking at Turner, I have no idea how long he’ll take to get to the bigs and also not sure if he’s a possible keeper going forward or more of a solid contributor. Also have JP Crawford on the roster, but thinking he’ll probably be down on the farm for even more of the year (and his counting stats might take a while to come around).
Would definitely take Stroman over Turner. I don’t think Stroman is an ace (you described him well), but Turner may not hit early or at all, and may not get a ton of time in WAS this year either.
You have the makings of a great rotation.
OBP dynasty $200 Cap. $15 Sale or $1 C Seager as MI? As great as Sale is, pitching is easier to find than quality SS eligible players. I have Carrasco, C Mart, Syndergaard, Rodon, and Archer or Sonny Gray. Seager would pair with Correa and Odor.
Tough one. I love Sale. If you are keeping all the players you have in that list, I’d prefer to keep Sale to Gray, Rodon and CMart quite easily. But, as you said, if pitching is easier to find, I’d go with Seager because of the position and large price gap between the two.
You keep Seager. Given the depth of SP vs. MI, I think that’s a no brainer once you look over your current keepers.
I know deGrom is much for valuable in 2016, but who do you prefer for total value 2016-2019, deGrom or Buxton. I can only keep one & it is a 4 yr contract.
This will be an interesting question to revisit 12, 24, 48 months from now, but I prefer deGrom
Which side? Donaldson for 25,28,31 or Yelich and C Seager (11,14,17 and 7,10,13)
Yelich/Seager side
Would you prefer a $2 Pollock or $56 Trout in 5×5 plus OBP and SLG, no AVG? Thanks!
Pollock
7×7 (ops, off Ks, Ls, k / bb)
Cost rises $5 / year
Keeping:
Trout $17
Machado $14
Correa $6
Pick 2:
Salazar $6
Stroman $6
Wainy $6
Polanco $6
Yelich $6
Mesoraco $6
Thx
Polanco and Wain. Yelich only hits GB, we don’t know the health of Meso’s hip, and I just think Wain will have the best year of those 3 SPs. You could substitute Salazar for Polanco.
Thanks Greg!
Yelich & Polanco.
Thanks Trey!
Pick 5 keepers out of the following in a 12 team H2H league (no price):
Rd1
H Ramirez
Rd3 (Pick one)
MadBum
Votto
Freeman
Rd 5 (pick one or two)
Cargo
Carrasco
Rd 14
Pollock
Rd 23
Soler
Pollock, Votto, MadBum, Soler, Carrasco. Votto > Freeman and I’d rather have MadBum over Cargo. Not sure why you’re keeping H Ram.
i’m reading that as you can only pick one out of round 3 guys (madbum/votto/freeman), and he’s not keeping hanley, that’s just one of the options (pretty clearly the worst one)
I would go with Bumgarner/Carrasco/Pollock/Soler for sure, and probably CarGo as the 5th.
deep 5×5, can keep minor leaguers indefinitely + three years once they hit the majors: Moncada or Benintendi + AJ Reed? Is it close?
I would probably prefer Benintendi/Reed, and it’s close enough that I think it’s fair for either side.
12 team 5X5 mixed H2H, keep four forever (no cost).
Holding Betts, Springer, Sano, Bogaerts, Strasburg, J. Upton, C. Seager.
Planning to keep the first four – does that make sense? Thanks!
The first three make sense. With “forever” on the line, the toughest decision is between Seager and XB. Don’t think there’s a wrong answer.
12 team 5×5 keep 6 league with 5×5 + h, obp, slg, k/bb, hld & qs. Keepers are kept at 2016 yahoo ranking (dumb I know, hoping to change that for next years draft).
I’ve got goldi and kershaw squared away, trying to figure out 4 between Xander, Thor, Puig, Rendon, Felix, Kipnis, Polanco.
I’m thinking Xander, Thor, puig, rendon… but curious to hear your thoughts.
Agree with your four: XB, Puig, Thor, Rendon
Standard 5×5 H2H format. Can keep up to 5 but can keep fewer. If you keep fewer than 5 then there’s a supplemental draft of all the leftover players so that every owner has 5 players before the full draft begins. I’m keeping Sale, Posey, deGrom for sure. Other possibilities for the other 2 keepers include:
A. Gonzalez
Ortiz
Lester
S. Gray
Schwarber
Carrasco
B. Hamilton
Would you keep any of the above or just go with 3 or 4 keepers and see who’s available in the supplemental draft? It’s a one catcher league so Schwarber seems less appealing since I’ll already have Posey. I’m toying with the idea of Posey + 4 SP (deGrom, Sale, Carrasco, Gray) to have a great start on SP and then drafting nothing but hitters for the first 10-ish rounds. Thoughts?
Thanks!
I like Carrasco at #4 for sure. Sounds like Schwarber is not (yet) OF eligible in your league, but I’d lean Schwarber as my 2nd selection. Prefer Lester to Gray if you go with another SP.
hey thanks for doing these!
my ottoneu borderlines:
$17 Billy Hamilton
$15 Glen Perkins
$9 Neil Walker
Even in a 5×5 I would cut Hamilton. If that’s FG or SABR points I would break my keyboard hitting the cut button so hard.
Perkins I’d likely cut either way. Neil Walker I’d keep in a points league, but probably cut in 5×5.
This has to be 5 x 5 Ottoneu, right? Walker looks like a solid keeper. I’d toss back both Perkins and Hamilton.
haha yes it is 5×5. thanks for the input!
I have some hesitancy to cut Perkins as I have a feeling closers will be slim pickings in the draft. I suppose that shouldn’t make me keep him above cost regardless.
Maybe punt saves? They seem to almost always be available on waivers during the season. Let’s someone else overpay for Perkins
5×5 Dynasty league, no cost to keeping players year to year. I have Springer, Gomez, Kemp, Fowler, Castillo and Bradley Zimmer in the OF (Also Kris Bryant has OF elig.) Since I am overwhelmingly stacked, and competitive to win next year, looking to cut one. Do I cut Fowler? Do I give up on Castillo? Or do I cut the prospect Zimmer? Fowler has the most ‘proven’ track record, but hitting 30 and not sure he offers the same upside as Castillo or Zimmer. With my depth, I feel upside is the play, but how much upside is here? Phew! Thanks
I don’t think you’re stacked, but there is a good base here. Tough to make the call on Fowler till we find out where he signs, but I thik the easiest choice here is to cut Castillo. If you’re limited in your number of keepers, I’d rank them Springer, Gomez, Fowler, Kemp, Zimmer.
12 team 5 by 5
QS instead of Wins and OBP instead of avg.
can keep any 5
keeping machado, Bryant and harper
now I cant decide final 2 between marte,scherzer, cespedes, arrieta, and degrom
This one is easy: Scherzer & Arrieta. That’s a terrific 5.
6×6 weekly league with OPS as the sixth batting category and Holds as the 6th pitching cagegory. 1 C, 3 OF, 2 UTIL, no MI or CI slots.
Which 5 of the following do I keep? I’m interested in two scenarios, one assuming I don’t keep any of the pitchers (I’ve punted Ws and Ks the last two years with good success), the other assuming I am planning to compete with SPs (either because of rule changes or because it strategically makes sense)
(2016 $/2017 $ /2018 $) — future year prices are team options, not obligations
Correa ($6/$11/$16)
Schwarber ($6/$11/$16)
Lindor ($6/$11/$16)
Springer ($11/$16/FA)
Rizzo ($32/$37/FA)
Chris Davis ($22/$27/$32)
Carpenter ($18/$23/$28)
Braun ($27/$32/$37)
Posey ($35/$40/$45)
Wainwright ($6/$11/$16)
Stroman ($6/$11/$16)
Rodon ($6/$11/$16)
Correa & Springer are easy decisions here. Considering the price difference between Posey and Schwarber, I’d choose Schwarber at C for your third. C. Davis would be my 4th choice, followed by Lindor or Carpenter as my 5th. I like almost all these hitters more than your options at SP, so I’d stick with the offensive selections.
Alright guys, 6×6 AL-Only question for you. Little bit different categories. Hitting categories H, OBP, R, RBI, HR, SB. Pitching categories ERA, WHIP, IP, net wins, SV, K-BB. We keep 8 and rosters reset every 5 years.
Here’s who I’ve got as potential keepers:
Betts
Tulo
Carlos Gomez
Adam Jones
Kyle Seager
Kipnis
Stroman
Calhoun
Gordon
Carlos Santana
That’s ten possibilities for eight spots, so I’ve gotta cut two. Santana would be easy if it wasn’t an OBP league. Interested to get your thoughts. Thanks for doing this!
I would cut Calhoun and Santana, since Santana is now lumped in with all 1B and doesn’t stand out as much as he used to at C.
I would cut Tulo, and then probably Calhoun.
A bit of a weird one: avg/obp/slg league that also has QS as a cat.
Can keep Stanton for one more year, but he’ll cost 3 keeper spots. The other candidates for those spots are Pollock/Carrasco/Cole/Archer.
So would you rather have Stanton or 3 of that group? Which 3, if you lean that way?
Also, I have Trout/Betts/Marte as my OFers already.
I’ve never heard of a league like this before, but my instinct would be to keep a group of three instead of Stanton, considering that you already have an elite outfielder and two other very good ones. I think I’d keep Pollock, Carrasco and Archer.
The system was devised as a way to “extend” the contract of elite keepers. We have a 3-year contract, so after you’ve kept someone for three years, you can extend the contract one more year at the cost of an additional spot, and then a year past that costing 2 extra spots, etc. I extended Stanton last season.
NL only / 12 Teams/ 250 cap 14 hitters 8 Pitchers 7×7 (OBP;HR;RBI;SB;R;H;2b+3b & ERA;WHIP;W; QS; W%; K; S) can keep 9 max.
Clayton Kershaw $44
Ryan Braun $31
Max Scherzer $30
Matt Kemp $29
Neil Walker $24
Jhonny Peralta $22
Jonathan Papelbon $20
A.J. Pollock $19
Martin Prado $18
Jean Segura $17
Yasmani Grandal $15
Francisco Liriano $12
Jake Arrieta $8
Angel Pagan $5
Chase Anderson $2
I would definitely toss back Kemp/Papelbon/Prado/Segura/Pagan/Anderson, and keep the rest I think.
ottoneu 4×4 league. i have:
$50 Miggy Cabrera
$49 Andrew McCutchen
$65 Clayton Kershaw
i won the league last year, and am looking to continue my run. I’d love to drop and redraft one or two of these guys, but there’s a bunch of teams with a lot of cap space, and very few stars available in the draft.
if i dropped them, they would be the best players currently available.
I’m coming back with a strong team, but only $46 cap space for 10 free slots.
Do i keep them all and run stars and scrubs, or should i kick someone free (Miggy?) and hope for more flexibility?
I also have a $7 Hosmer and $19 Chris Davis to play 1b. The rest of my rotation is $16-Ventura $14-Gray $13-Archer $9-Matz $3-Severino
If you want to cut someone lose under those conditions, I think Miggy is clearly the safest choice. If I was in your position, I think I would go ahead an cut him. You’d have freedom to spend at 1B to get Miggy or another good player back, or go cheaper and invest in upgrading your rotation or other positons. BTW, I would most definitely try to put Davis in your outfield, and use Hosmer at 1B. Davis will have more value as an outfielder and you can target another 1B to play at Util and backup Hosmer.
12 team H2H keep forever. Keeping Miggy, Stanton, Springer
Final three keeper candidates: J. Fernandez, Kluber, MadBum, Votto, JDM.
What do you think? Thanks!
Continuing the trend of supporting young talent in a keep-forever league, I’d definitely keep Fernandez. After that, I think I’d take JDM and Votto.
Keep forever, I’d actually consider cutting Miggy and taking Votto. I think you’re cutting JDM too, or MadBum/Kluber depending on how power and pitchers are valued.
I think cutting Miggy and replacing him with Votto is a reasonable idea. Beyond that, I just trust hitters more than pitchers for a keep-forever. I’d rather have a solid JDM in a couple years than MadBum on the DL with Tommy John. Not that that’s certain to happen, but that’s my line of thinking prioritizing hitting. I’m more interested in Fernandez simply because he’s so much younger than the others, so the upside of 5+ years of him with no increase or penalty is really awesome.
My last keeper is down to M. Conforto or J. Pederson in a 6×6 H2H. Which one for this year and beyond? Thanks!
Pederson. Conforto can become Votto, but Pederson can be Trout (hopefully you see where I’m going with that)
I think that’s pretty close, but I would probably keep Pederson.
10 team; AL only; 5 keepers; no cost; standard 9 position 3 OF + 1 utility; H2H; Points
Trout, Bautista, Tulo obvious keepers
Which 2 of Cain, Beltre, Stroman, Buxton
Either Buxton/Cain or Buxton/Stroman. I’d probably go with the OF.
$13 Kole Calhoun in FgPts, and I haven’t been able to drum up much trade interest. Is he a guy I should be cutting?
Keep the faith! I think Calhoun is a reasonable keep at 13, although he’s not necessarily a steal. Unless you feel confident interest is so low you could get him back for less, I’d play it safe and keep him.
Because Calhoun is probably a platoon guy playing full time, I think I’d cut him at $13 in FGPTS and re-target, probably around $9-$10
That is just above my cut line for Calhoun. I like him, but I agree with Trey that you could probably get him back for a couple bucks less.
Keep 2:
Tulo vs. Puig vs. Votto vs. Gomez
5×5 league no penalties or limits for keeping.
That’s Carlos Gomez? I’d take Votto and (as an ottoneu player it pains me to say this) Gomez. Tulo is too injury prone to be helpful in a regular 5×5 for me and Puig I’d rather toss back and try to pick him up again without blowing a keeper spot on him right now.
If your team is setup well for 2016, take Votto and Tulo. If you’re not sure, take Votto & Puig.
FG Points. Trout will be available in auction and several owners are clearing room to go after him. Several minus one will have a lot of salary left to go after a very limited pool of talent. Does this make Braun a keeper at $37?
No. I don’t like to get so cute, pardon the phrase, with predicting auction action. I’ve got Braun around 30, and many are actually lower on him because of age, decline and PED concerns. If someone is going to turn around and drop 40 on Braun after getting Trout, I’d say let them blow their money … or, if their team is going to be so good with Trout and Braun added that they’re unbeatable, then nobody probably stood much chance against them anyway.
This is a great question. Right now I have Braun at 5.63 P/G (roughly similar to CarGo). Despite Trout being scooped up, I still don’t think it makes Braun $37. Part of that reason is I’ve seen a little less inflation in FGPTS leagues over time than I original expected (but every league is different). I would cut at $37.
Head-to-head weekly points league. Which 4 do I keep? I have Trout, Harper, Correa, Bryant, Schwarber, Encarnacion, Kluber, Sale, DeGrom, Cole, Jose Fernandez!
Trout, Harper, Correa, Bryant. Those are insanely good options though. A nice problem to have.
Keep 3 more in a points league with a 300 cap in a league where ace pitching is always extremely expensive. Current keepers: Lester ($24), Rizzo ($41), Corey Seager ($5)
Duffy ($5), Bumgarner ($60), Severino ($5), Dee Gordon ($10), Heaney ($5), Justin Turner ($5), Posey ($26).
Yikes. $60 sounds expensive for MadBum when comparing him to Lester at $24. I think I’d prefer Posey, Severino, and either Turner or Gordon for the 3rd. Since I don’t really know the points, I’d go Turner.
Got a keeper question for ya. Thanks in advance!
18 team H2H – can keep a player 3 times total
Which one do you keep?:
Michael Pineda – rd 13 (last keep possible)
Yordano Ventura – rd 17 (2 keeps left)
Zach Wheeler – rd 13 (3 keeps left)
second question:
do you keep Addison Russell rd 22 (3 keeps left) over all of those guys?
I like Ventura the most of those pitchers, both because his round is so late, and because I think he’s straight up better than Wheeler. But of all of them I think I’d go with Russell. He’s a solid player now, that’s the latest round of all of those guys, and Russell still has potential to grow into an awesome SS who would be a no-doubt keep in future years.
Ventura pretty easily there. But yes, I’d prefer Russell in the 22nd round to all three SP (but that’s without details on your scoring format). 18 teams is deep and I’d rather have the MI with upside
Better keeper for ’16-’17: Boxberger or Gallo at $4?
I love Gallo, but I think Boxberger is the smart play here. If they’re both on your team, I’d keep both!
I’m going to disagree with Tom a bit here: I’d rather have Gallo. I think there’s more risk, but way, way more upside and $4 feels like it’s well worth that shot.
I’m with Trey, I think Gallo is the better keeper at that price.
Ottoneu, Fangraphs Points format. Do you keep or cut an $8 Nick Castellanos?
Ah, the most controversial player in Champs League history. I’d cut him loose, but I think 8 isn’t far about his value (I see him more at 5 or 6). I wouldn’t mock you for keeping.
I actually had to look this one up but I have him at 4.63 P/G (~725 FGPTS). There’s probably some upside there and 3B feels shallow this year. I would keep, but I don’t have a ton of confidence yet.
He’s $7 on my sheet right now, so that’s a bubble price for him for sure. I would probably cut.
Ottoneu Fangraphs Points format.
Keep/Cut:
$41 Jose Bautista
$16 David Robertson
$9 Sean Doolittle
$4 Kevin Pillar
$3 Ben Revere
Alright now THIS is a comment – I’m out of my depth trying to judge draft rounds and wild snake draft formats!
I would cut Bautista, Pillar, and especially Revere, he’s a noted FGPTS drain. Doolittle and Robertson I think are fairly priced – not steals, I could keep them or cut them loose if I’m looking to clear space.
Cut: Robertson, Doolittle, Pillar, Revere
Keep: Bautista (this is right on the edge I think)
The only one I would keep is Robertson. Bautista is probably a couple bucks overpriced, Pillar/Revere look like $1 OF to me, and Doolittle is risky at $9.
Ottoneu, FGPTS, what do you guys think about a $32 Greinke? Leaning toward the cut side, but would love to hear more.
Also, what about $6 Orlando Arcia, $6 Aaron Judge and $4 Jeff Hoffman. Those are my only prospects going into the auction this year (if I keep them).
I’d cut Arcia unless you think he’ll take over a starting role pretty much immediately. The only way I think he’s that great of an option is if he’s playing every day, otherwise I don’t love his upside enough to sit on him waiting. Judge I’d keep, although I don’t love paying 6. Hoffman I’d cut, he’s just too far away and $4 is too much to be waiting on him.
As far as Greinke, I think that’s an easy cut now that he’s in Arizona.
Thanks!
I would lean to keep Greinke at $32. He’s lost some value moving to ARZ, but he was so excellent last year that I think he keeps enough gains to earn that price. As for the prospects, I would shop Arcia and Judge heavily at those prices until the 1/31 deadline, but if no takers, I would cut all three (especially Hoffman). Even if you save $2-$3 on those guys in the auction, it’s a win. I’d doubt they go that high if you throw them back, and I don’t see them gaining much helium in the upcoming prospect “ranking” season of Feb/March.
I would do everything in my power to make a $32 Greinke someone else’s decision.
I couldn’t get anybody to take him, and I haven’t been asking for much recently. It has made me think I could cut and get him back for less.
Verlander @ $13 (FGpts). Who is he? Will he ever be an ace again or is he a #3 or worse?
Dump him (but in person or over the phone, not by text message)
Verlander has to be one of the toughest keeper decision of the off season, right? He had a nice rebound 2nd half that looks legitimate. However, knowing what I know about your team (hint hint), I’d much rather keep Verlander at $13 than Bundy at $10. You shouldn’t keep both…
Drop it like it’s hot.
If I think I can compete this year (#2 on the surplus calculator), am I keeping too many prospects if I’m keeping 6 at $22? Will it hurt my chances at competing?
$5 AJ Reed
$5 Blake Snell
$4 Bradley Zimmer
$3 Alex Bregman
$3 Brendan Rodgers
$2 JP Crawford
I don’t think it’s ridiculous to keep 6 prospects, but it is a bit high – if I’m competing, I’d rather use some of those spots for depth. But I think you could easily keep these guys, and then flip a couple for help midseason, since if you’re competing you’ll probably be interested in buying at the deadline as well.
Reed, especially, has potential to help you this year in your lineup too. It’s not like you’re sitting on six single A pitchers with big arms and no control.
Thanks, the main two I’m wondering about hanging onto are Bregman and Rodgers, since they’re further away. My guess is because they are SS and fairly inexpensive, they would still have some decent trade value at midseason.
Yeah, and Rodgers is fairly close. Even if you have to hunt for the right owner I bet someone in your league will want him.
*still* fairly close, that should say
Seth, I think you can still compete with this bunch. I’d keep all of them, or try to consolidate into one less before the deadline. Reed and Snell will help you this year (not sure how much), Crawford will be big trade bait, and Bregman and Rodgers should catch some helium. Zimmer is sort of in between but he may be up late this year and has a high enough floor to keep (or trade).
I think you keep all six, using Reed/Snell/Crawford as mid season replacements and the other three as trade chits.
Better keeper for 2017: Gallo, Soler, Profar, or Brendan Rodgers? Who is the safest? Who has the highest ceiling?
Assuming there’s not a big price difference, Soler is the easy choice for me, and definitely the safest. He has the most track record at MLB even if he hasn’t always been playing at a star level. The others could give you something great or nothing.
As far as highest ceiling … Rodgers? He’s not necessarily the best in a vacuum but we’ve seen what Coors can do for DJ LeMahieu.
For 2017: Soler, Gallo, Profar, Rodgers
Ceiling: Gallo, Soler, Rodgers, Profar
Trey, you fooled me into thinking Neil Walker was a good player to trade for at $16. I regret this decision. There are many players like this that I traded for and now wish I hadn’t. I’m sure there are other Ottoneu players out there that have done same. Do you agree that I need to cut these “mistakes,” i.e. $16 Neil Walker? If you could speak specifically on Mr. Walker and about the general concept, that would be amazing…because you owe me after fleecing me!
In general, I’d say it’s smart to cut your losses if you have a player you feel is overpriced. You already got hurt by trading for him, don’t hurt yourself again by keeping him! I can let Trey answer for his crimes of fleecing in this specific case!
Ha! I don’t remember what I received in that Walker deal, but I agree $16 is too high. That says less about Walker and more about the 2B position in Ottoneu. If you think about each position as a production curve, I think 2B is one of the “flattest”: there are a lot of 2B’s that seem similar that are all bunched up together. I’d be just as happy with Pedroia or Kendrick or Murphy or Forsythe, etc. as I would be with Walker (who probably was a $16 player in the last two years). Only recommendation is to lump all those guys together on your draft sheet and just ignore the names and draft only for value (easier said than done). They are all very similar at 2B once you get past Altuve, Cano, and Carpenter
$19 Brantley – FGPTS. Is that worth keeping knowing he’ll be out for a month?
I’d cut him at 19, from what I’ve heard a month is the MINIMUM he’d be out, and I don’t want $19 tied up in Brantley if reports come out that he’s now out until the All Star break.
I heard an interview earlier this week from someone in the CLE front office that gave me the feeling Brantley was “on track to return a few months into the season”. Don’t quote that quote, but it didn’t sound like he would be back early May. I would lean to cut him at that price because of it (plus it’s his shoulder, right? Could sap his power).
Maybe Chad can add more context to this question since he loves the Indians…
If you’re planning on being competitive I would cut Brantley, otherwise I definitely think it’s worth the risk to hold at $19.
Which one should I save? (assume salaries etc are all equal)
Odor
Kang
Lemahieu
Brandon Crawford
Odor
Thanks! That’s what I figured but it’s nice to get confirmation.
Rougned Odor. Big, big fan.
Odor!
12 team 6×6 (AVG, R, HR, RBI, SB, OPS) league with 5 keepers. Down to Yu and two Coreys for my last keeper slot (already have Goldschmidt, Donaldson, Bryant, Altuve):
Two years of Corey Dickerson (18th round pick),
Three years of Yu Darvish (19th round pick) or
Three years of Corey Seager (21st round pick)?
Keep Seager
Keep Darvish
I think I would go with the Coreys.
General question:
I’m in a shallow 10 team NL only Dynasty. No bench. Each team keeps 8 Major League players and 4 minor leaguers. I’m finding it hard to rebuild due to no teams needing depth. With no bench players needed its really hard to acquire top guys for 3-4 solid players. How would you recommend rebuilding in a league like this? Thanks.
Totally honest – that is a bizarre setup and I would quit and join ottoneu 🙂
I guess the only way to rebuild here would be to focus on prospects – maybe you can draft a star and then flip him for a couple top prospects, and/or a post-hype type player who is on the back end of someone else’s roster? My thought is that if it’s hard to use 3 or 4 guys to acquire one stud, flip the script, and try to deal a stud for 3-4 solid guys who can grow. You’ll have to wait out the rebuild rather than charging ahead but it sounds like this league forces some tough choices, so that may be what you have to do.
20 team, keep 8, 4×4 (no R or WHIP), $260 salary, $5 inflation for keepers each year.
Currently have Schwarber, Lemahieu (both $6), Correa, Lindor, Carrasco, Thor, Hector Rondon, and Soler ($11 each). Would you:
Trade Rondon and Soler for $6 Raisel Iglesias and $6 Michael Conforto
Trade Lindor or Thor for $21 Rizzo
Both
or stand pat?
Thanks in advance, these are awesome
Ah, a trade question:
Yes, I would absolutely trade Rondon & Soler for Iglesias and Conforto
I would keep Lindor and Thor instead of moving them for Rizzo
NL only 11 team 5×5, $260. Would you rather have Domingo Santana @ $5 or Matt Carpenter at $19?
Is Matt Carpenter 2B eligible for you? If so, I’d go with him. If not, it’s closer, but I think I’d still go with him, Santana hasn’t really proven much yet, while Carpenter has established himself as a solid option at 3B and a very good 2B.
Carpenter
$20 Brandon Belt FGpts league
$6 Eduardo Escobar FGpts league
$5 Jake Lamb FGpts league
Cut em all loose! I think you could pick any of them up for less if you want to reacquire them.
Be aggressive with your cuts for Ottoneu and cut all three.
SABR Pts
$30 Greinke or $30 Liriano?
…… neither?
Greinke in Arizona is more worrisome in SABR than in FGPTs to me, because of the homer potential. Liriano may be worth 30, but I’d MUCH rather own him for 20 or so, considering the risk that he turns back into a pumpkin.
I’m with Tom, in SABR I think they are both cuts.
12 team league that does NOT use NL or AL west teams except for Astros. 5×5. MI/CI, 5 of. weekly league if that matters and roto
Can keep 4.
definitely keeping Bryant at $15
other potential keepers
DeGrom $24
Abreu $31
Stroman $5
Rodon $5
Addison Russell $5
Leaning towards DeGrom, Stroman and Russell because i could probably get abreu at that price in the auction
Did you once write into Effectively Wild about this league? This format sounds strangely familiar to me. Hard to judge how the teams included affect keeper values but I think what you’ve suggested sounds reasonable. Rodon isn’t likely to go for much and Abreu isn’t as much of a star as he was at this point last year.
i’m not sure, maybe? Its only my second year in the league, but for instance the 3 top players are unavailable (trout, kershaw, and goldyschmidt) and this drives up the price of other players. also harder to stream starters since its a weekly league and 9 teams starters are unavailable
Here are the players I’m on the fence about in FGPs Ottoneu:
Matt Holliday $19
Yunel Escobar $6
Jaime Garcia $15
Joe Ross $9
Roberto Osuna $4
Tony Watson $6
Tom Wilhelmsen $4
Trevor Story $8
My take on those guys:
Matt Holliday $19 keep
Yunel Escobar $6 keep
Jaime Garcia $15
Joe Ross $9 I’d be on the fence here. My instinct is to cut, but as I’m just noted with my colleagues, I’ve been ruthlessly advising cuts today. If you’re a believer that’s not a crazy price.
Roberto Osuna $4 keep
Tony Watson $6 cut
Tom Wilhelmsen $4 cut
Trevor Story $8 cut
Tom, is your “I’d be on the fence her…” comment applicable to both Jaime Garcia and Joe Ross?
Thank you.
Would definitely cut J. Garcia at $15 and Ross at $9. Agree with Tom everywhere else.
Yeah, my bad, I’d cut Garcia as well.
Pick 1 group of keepers. 6X6 (with QS, hlds and OPS) 16 team keeper league.
Group 1:
Machado, Springer, Marte, Jose Fernandez, Buxton and Gallo
Group 2:
Bryant, Upton, Yelich, Lindor, Trea Turner and Josh Bell
Group 1 pretty easily.
I have Betts, Bogaerts, Abreu, and Carrasco as for-sure keepers. Five keepers, as long as you like.
Who should be my 5th keeper? Who has the most value this season and who has the most long-term value?
Heyward
Salazar
Odor
Is there any sort of round or penalty attached to these guys? If not, I’d take Heyward. if there is, that might sway me towards Odor, for his long term value and likely a better round.
Without any context or additional info, I would take Heyward
Ottoneu FGPTs
Greinke $35
Iwakuma $13
Lackey $7
Asdbrubal Cabrera $6
Kyle Zimmer $4
I’d cut Greinke and Zimmer for sure. Iwakuma I think I’d keep but it’s not a slam dunk for me.
Cut (or trade), keep, keep, cut, cut
Greinke $35 Cut
Iwakuma $13 Cut
Lackey $7 Cut
Asdbrubal Cabrera $6 Cut
Kyle Zimmer $4 Cut
(would just re-target many of these players, likely at lower prices)
I would keep Lackey and Asdrubal, but neither are much of a value at those salaries (in fact both are exactly at my $ values on my current sheet).
Thoughts on this BP pieces in FGpts?
$15 Cody Allen
$9 Papelbon
$6 Grilli
$6 Strop
$4 Capps
$3 Tolleson
$3 Colome
I think Strop is a cut here, but I am hesitant for some reason. I have an irrational appreciation for Colome and view him a prospect since he just got moved to the bullpen.
I have Papelbon and Grilli as borderline, Strop and Colome as cuts. The $3 non-top-tier RP is one of the big blind spots for a lot of owners, I think. Colome is a fine piece to own but there is absolutely no reason to be committed to him at $3 now.
I would cut Grilli, Strop and Colome, though I am sure reasonable minds will disagree. None are egregious keeps.
Dan, I’d cut all these guys except for Capps and Tolleson, though I really like Allen and would try to re-target him in the auction. I like your sleeper call on Colome but since I don’t think anyone else is really on him, I’d be willing to take my chances to sign him for $1. Capps has a ton of helium right now as a possible closer in MIA (I’d be looking to trade him), and Tolleson is decent enough to spend $3. Papelbon is a choking hazard at any price.
I would cut Papelbon, Strop, Colome. I would also hug Capps tight every night and tell him how much I love him.
12 team, NL only, 6×6. Keep 10. I have a strong team of late 20s vets. Came into Vinvent Velasquez, Margot, Javy Guerra, Mark Appel, and Ben Revere via AL trades. How valuable are these guys as trade chips with rebuilding squads? Any combo of guys enough to pick up Soler, Posey, freeman or arenado from rebuilding clubs?
Revere has some real value with the steals and a potential lead off slot in a good lineup. Margot has some prospect hype, as does Velasquez. That said, I don’t think you are even in the right world to be talking Posey or Arenado. Soler and Freeman depend a lot on what their owners think of them. But I wouldn’t trade my Soler or Freeman for all five of those guys.
Keep an $8 D. Norris as C#2 in FGPT Ott or cut and get somebody cheaper at auction?
Get someone cheaper. I doubt Norris goes for 8, you could easily pick up him or someone equally good at 5 or less.
Norris seems like a clear cut to me at $8. Maybe re-target at $3.
For what it’s worth, I think D. Norris (2015) is a decent guideline for what we can expect from Blake Snell’s debut this year. AL East LHP prospects don’t have an easy road…
5×5 h2h 12 team
Keep 6. No cost. Can keep forever
Keeping Cabrera/Mccutchen/Betts/Springer/Scherzer
Have A. Russell or Odor to choose from for final keeper. Okay with risk given pretty dependable 5 other keepers. Let me know what you think. Thanks!
Odor and Russell seem very similar to me so it’s probably a toss up. Russell was always regarded/scouted more highly and should stick at SS, so I would choose Russell.
Really need help on whether or not some of these guys are worth keeping in standard league 5X5 (well 6X6 with OPS and QS):
Carrasco: $16
Corbin: $7
M. Moore: $6
T. Ross: $13
CarGo: $33
Rendon: $17
M. Franco: $7
Fielder: $24
Really wondering about Rendon…
Hopefully others will weigh in here but assuming a $260 budget, I’d keep Carrasco, Ross, Franco, Rendon. I think I’d pass on Corbin and Moore, and CarGo. Fielder is close for me.
Those are exactly the same guys I would recommend keeping.
Is $3 Keone Kela worth targeting?
Assuming $6 Alejandro Ramos is an easy cut.
I wish more teams wanted to trade me their $3 Keone Kelas.
And yes, I would cut Ramos.
I like Kela at $3. He’s a keep for me
Not sure I would cut Ramos. I still think he is more likely to win the job than Capps (basically, I assume they will both have good springs and Ramos will get the “closer experience” edge, plus a little bonus cause they can delfate Capps’s value in his arbitration years). At $6 as the closer, he is a keep for me, and if he loses the job, you can cut him loose at that time.
Pretty sure I’d need a $24 Zobrist to reach his 80th, 90th percentile projections to pay off in an Ottoneu Fangraphs points league. But if I’m rebuilding this team, is there a way to see keeping him as an in-season trade piece?
Zobrist is great in FGPTS but losing SS eligibility hurts his stock a bit. I expect a good year in CHC but it’s hard to say just how enticing he will be to contending teams in your league in May or June. $24 feels a bit heavy so I would consider cutting and reallocating that money into a bigger trade chip exiting the auction
There will be much better ways to spend that $24 at auction as a rebuilding team.
Standard 5X5. Need to choose one between Aaron Nola, Joe Ross or Eduardo Rodriguez. My others SP’s are: Price, Cueto, Matz, Severino.
I would choose Ross. I’d rank them Ross, Nola, ER for 2016 (but probably ER, Nola, Ross long term)
14 team/ keep 4/ salary locked for 3 years then increases $10 a year
Keeping $25 J. Bautista , $2 Correa, $3 Stroman, and with last spot have to decide between $2 T.Walker, $2 B. Buxton or $2 A. Russel. I’m leaning Walker, even though he’s a pitcher. In keep 4, short-term keeper league, you really only keep studs and he’s the only one that has shown that ability at the MLB level yet.
Am I crazy to throw back $2 Buxton and A.Russel? Russel’s ceiling just seems a bit too low to wait on, especially if he keeps on hitting in the #9 spot.
What is the scoring format? Points, 5×5, etc? I do think both Russell and Buxton could be well worth taking over Walker, but more more context would help
5×5.
salaries for all three the next 5 years would be 2,3,13,23,33
My thinking is that the most likely scenario for Russel and Buxton this year is being around league average as far as fantasy. That would only leave one cheap year before their salaries started climbing and I’m in win now mode. Plus, I already have Correa at short. Walker’s actually shown stretched of dominance already, so seems more likely to reach star potential in the next couple years.
5×5 H2H actually
12-team dynasty league with standard pitching scoring. Rotation next year is looking like Greinke (21), Wainwright (19), McCullers (6), Stroman (2), Ventura (4). Beyond that, my SP bench is Roark (3) Desclafani (5) and Nelson (5). My starting rotation I think is pretty solidly priced – any of those bench guys worth dropping to free roster space (I’ll be calling Ventura and Stroman up from my minors, and looking to figure out where exactly to make room).
Probably worth noting that the Salary cap is $217, and I’m in no need to free up salary room – just roster space.
I don’t love Greinke or Wainwright at those prices with a $217 cap. McCullers, Stroman, and Yordano I like a lot, but not sure I would keep the bottom three. Can you trade in the off-season? I’d shop those top two and target aces in the auction.
Is Blake Swihart a top 10 dynasty catcher moving forward?
For dynasty? Yes, probably. But no one disappoints more than catching prospects (though all those 1B prospects say “hello”)
Probably, but I think that says more about the catcher position than it does Swihart.
Zach Wheeler at $9 in a $217 cap league. Worth throwing him back into the FA auction?
Yes, throw him back
Agreed.
5×5 10 tm w/ inflation can keep 4 of following (should I though?):
Betts $17
Bryant $23
Votto $26
Freeman $19
Strasburg $16
Gomez $28
I have impossible decisions to make in a 10 tm 6×6 KEEP 8 (OBP & SLG instead of AVG)(K/9 and QS instead of wins):
Votto
Odor
Joey Bats
McCutchen
Trout
Betts
Braun
Rizzo
Blackmon
Puig
Scherzer
Hamels
Fernandez
DeGrom
Chapman
In that first group I would keep Betts, Bryant, Votto, and Strasburg.
In the 2nd league: Trout, Betts, Scherzer, JFer, Rizzo, Votto, Cutch, Bautista
I don’t have any issues with Trey’s answer, but I might think about DeGrom or Chapman over Bautista. DeGrom in particular is young and could be a long term keeper for you. Bautista feels like he could fall apart any day now. Even Scherzer, for that matter, will have a shorter shelf-life than DeGrom, though he’ll likely be much better this year.
12 team H2H Points league. 7 keepers, can keep them til the end of time with no draft penalty. Pitching is coveted in this league. Choosing between:
Freeman, Kipnis, M. Franco, Tulo, Cespedes, Upton, Springer, G. Richards, Stroman, Odorizzi
Oh, and extra categories are 1B, 2B, 3B, BB, K, CS & QS, CG, L, BS, BB (for what it’s worth)
Springer, Freeman, Upton, Tulo, Kipnis, Franco, Stroman
Thanks!
So, not a believer in Richards?
Richards, Odorizzi and Stroman are all pretty similar in my mind, but my guess is Stroman might be seen as the more valuable guy to everyone else, and I always want to be holding the guy with the greatest perceived value. I think Richards is more 2015 than 2014.
10 team roto 3 keeper lg. I need 3 from Altuve $24, A Jones $24, Schwarber $5, Sale $13, Arrieta $15. Do I keep the 2 stud SPs & a top 2B in Altuve? Schwarber not proven & Jones’ production is in line to available players at auction time.
Thanks!
I’d do Altuve and the pitchers but there isn’t a bad mix of 3 in the group.
In Roto I think it would be hard not to take Altuve/Sale/Arrieta there, but keeping Schwarber instead of one of those three isn’t a mistake.
Trey, how many balks do you project for Justin Verlander this year?
I get negative points for balks in my points league…
I’m not Trey, but Verlander will have one memorable balk in ’16.
I balk at this question
15 team roto, 1 Catcher League: Do I keep Russell Martin in the 18th round or Prince Fielder in the 5th round? Leaning Martin. Thanks.
Martin, but it’s close.
I’m in a 12 team mixed h2h with $260 cap. With not many top-tier hitters likely to be available (Cabrera, Encarnacion, McCutchen, Cano, Posey and then a huge dropoff), what are your thoughts on keeping Fielder at $25?
Basically 10% of your cap on Fielder feels like too much, I would cut.
16 team, head to head points league. 10 keepers, unlimited years kept.
All of the following are rostered – Schwarber, FFreeman, Cano, Correa, Kyle Seager, Maik Franco, Nelson Cruz, Mookie, Starling Marte, Joc
Kershaw, Price, Harvey, McCullers, Tai Walker, Ed Rodriguez
In my mind, it had been a foregone conclusion that I do not keep Cano and/or try to move him for a draft pick, his age obviously being a factor.
Was planning on keeping Schwarber, Freeman, Correa, Seager/Franco, Marte, Betts, Kershaw, Harvey, Price and Walker/McCullers. The tougher decisions being between 2 of Seager/Franco/Walker/McCullers.
I’ve gotten feedback that I should keep Cano instead, but over whom? I have a deal on the table for a 3rd round pick for him and am strongly considering taking it. Keep in mind, 160 picks are off the board by the time the 1st round starts.
Cano can still produce but I can easily envision a scenario where one of the guys I drop to keep him is already out producing him by the end of 2016.
I would keep Kershaw/Harvey/Price/McCullers/Schwarber/Correa/Franco/Mookie/Joc/Marte. I don’t think Cano is a bad option, and would consider him instead of McCullers.
Agree Cano > McCullers
Young pitcher question for everyone. Rank the following:
Rodon
Heaney
Joe Ross
Same for prospects:
Mazara
Berrios
Alex Reyes
Rodon/Ross/Heaney
Mazara/Reyes/Berrios (Reyes and Berrios are basically even though)
Thanks! Berrios vs Reyes is a toughie!
12 Team, Head to Head roto 12×12 catagories. Basically 5×5 with OBP, ABs, Hits and Total bases on offense. GS, HR allowed, losses, Complete games, shut outs and K/9 added for pitching.
Keep a player in the round drafted. Player goes up one round after keeping in multiple years.
Keeping Mike Trout as an 18th Rd pick. Must keep one other batter and one Pitcher.
Options below. Must Keep one Batter One Pitcher. Last years round picked next to each (20) is a last round pick.
Manny Machado (6)
AJ Pollock (15)
George Springer (19)
Carlos Rodon (20)
Steven Matz (20)
Luis Severino (20)
Marcus Stroman (20)
Mostly cannot decide between Pollock and Springer. I Believe in Springer but Pollock is basically better everywhere but HRs. Need Help, More opinions the better.
Im leaning towards Trout Springer Rodon (upside play) or Trout Pollock Stroman. (Feels Safest though not necessarily best)
I think Trout/Springer/Rodon is your best option.
I prefer Matz to Rodon, but they are close. Trout/Springer/Matz
Keep 5, it’s h2h points so top pitchers get overvalued. Cost of keeper is draft round, and can keep forever.
No doubters: Trout (16), Betts (18), Thor (19)
Debating: Strasburg (13), Salazar (17), Sano (19, but he’d be 15th due to other rounds occupied), Miggy (1)…although he could be a draft target. Any thoughts on last 2 keeps?
Thanks!
I would keep Sano and Strasburg, but I don’t think you can go wrong with any of Stras/Salazar/Sano.
Can keep up to 5 players. NL only, 10 team roto. Player prices increase $5 per year. $260 budget. Also we play with a LF, CF, RF, OF format. 7 P slots.
Braun for $31
Votto for $30
Heyward for $30
Arenado for $29
Revere for $25
Justin Turner for $10
Kang for $10
Panik for $9
Jake Lamb for $7
Scherzer for $38
Greinke for $28
Melancon for $19
Familia for $11
Nola for $7
Hendricks for $7
Eickhoff for $6
I’m leaning toward keeping Arenado, Kang, and Familia and just throwing the rest back. Maybe keep Turner but then he’s locked in at CI. Thoughts?
I would keep Arenado/Kang/Hendricks.
5×5 OBP League. 13 Teams with a $300 budget, 9 keepers. Keeper cost goes up by $4 for 3 years then back into player pool.
Have been offered Tyson Ross ($6) and Semien ($3) for Granderson ($1) and Moncada ($1).
Moncada could be something special in a few years, but if you’re capped at three years to keep I think you definitely make that deal for Ross/Semien.
5×5 mixed league 30 round draft. Players kept in round previously drafted. Which 6 do you keep?
Degrom 4
Votto 6
Machado 10
Harvey 12
Eaton 13
Giles 17
Stroman 18
T Ross 19
Moustakos 27
Ross/Giles/Harvey/Machado are the ones that I would keep for sure, and then I would probably keep Votto and Eaton.
11 team, dynasty league, roto, 26 roster spots, NL only. I have a trade that was offered to me so I would like some feedback. Any advise is appreciated. First, I will explain both people’s situation. I am currently rebuilding since I have gathered some decent prospects (Brendan Rodgers, Alen Hanson, JP Crawford, Billy McKinney, Josh Bell, Tyrell Jenkins, and Robert Stephenson).He won the league last year. I personally don’t like the trade, but I would like several other opinions.
I trade:
Travis d’Arnaud
Tony Watson
He trades:
Austin Meadows
Zack Cozart
Dominic Brown
Ben Revere
Bobby Parnell
I like Meadows, but the rest are basically filler. I would probably hold on to d’Arnaud/Watson unless a better offer is made.
The only players that could possibly start for me is cozart(I lost Castro from the Cubs-Yankees trade),Meadows(good prospect), and Ben Revere(3rd outfielder).
Stick with TDA for now
12-team, h2h dynasty points league – no salaries or year restrictions. Scoring categories: wins, QS, innings, Ks. I have to keep two of these three starters: Jordan Zimmermann, Joe Ross and Eduardo Rodriguez.
Youth and potential over Zimmermann’s greater age and apparently slight downward trajectory?
I’ll probably be semi-competitive for this year – trending toward youth/prospects overall however.
Thanks!
I would definitely keep Ross, and probably Rodriguez. I might keep Zimmermann instead if I thought I could trade him in season for something better than ERod.
keep 6. 6×6, obp instead of avg, slg and qs added. 225 budget
schwarber – $10
rizzo – $25
donaldson – $30
pollock – $10
conforto – $10
david ortiz – $10
carlos santana – $10
scherzer – $21
carrasco – $10
cueto – $10
stroman – $10
liriano – $10
zimmermann – $10
right now: schwarber, rizzo, donaldson, pollock, conforto, and scherzer
pretty sure on the first four. not sure about conforto. could easily keep ortiz over him. would love to keep scherzer, but carrasco at $10 is pretty great.
thanks in advance.
I would keep Schwarber/Rizzo/Donaldson/Pollock/Scherzer/Carrasco.
Agree with this. Love Conforto, but he barely misses the cut here.
10 team, 5×5 with OBP and QS. FWIW, my strategy is always to spend big on hitting and get cheap pitching–never sure if that means I should keep good pitching on the cheap, or keep good hitting and be confident in my ability to cobble together a staff in the mid rounds. Keep three, one year only. Thanks!
Harper, Rd.4
Carrasco, Rd. 9
Archer, Rd. 13
Jose Fernandez, Rd. 16
Corey Seager, Rd. 20
Danny Salazar, Rd. 23 (unlikely, but such a value)
Harper is a lock despite the high round, as is JFer at tremendous value. Since it’s one year only, I’d probably go Archer next, though Seager is hard to pass up there too.
I’d keep Harper even if he was a first round pick. Agree with Trey on Archer, I think he’s in for another big year, while Seager may not contribute much right away, which really puts a damper on him if you can’t keep him for another year.
Thank you both. At the end of the season, I was pretty set on Harper, Fernandez, and Archer, but then started to consider Seager after reading that SS ranking article and being reminded how atrocious that could be. Also somewhat nervous about Archer getting hurt (too many sliders?) but I think I’ll keep and trade.
12 team 5 x 5. $260 budget and can only keep 7
Bryant 7
Bogaerts 4
Frazier 11
Goldy 35
C Seager 4
Price 28
Stroman 4
A. Jones 37
Soler 8
Cueto 13
Peralta 4
Which 7? Should I try to package the extra SS with Jones to get a better OF or should I try to get a stud pitcher?
Goldy, Bryant, Seager, XB, Peralta, Stroman, Cueto
16 team H2H roto categories. QS instead of W
Trying to decide between James Shields and Matt Moore as my final keeper.
Thoughts?
I would say it depends on the type of risk with your starters. Moore showed a little promise after he was recalled (post-horribad comeback) last year, so the upside is higher.
I like Shields a little better. Better home park, and using QS instead of wins will help mitigate him being on the awful Padres. Steamer likes Shields’ underlying performance a bit better and I’m inclined to agree.
Shields. Still not convinced Moore has the control/command to succeed in the AL East.
12-team H2H points, weighted towards pitching. $260 budget. I get three keepers for $5 over last year’s cost. My top options are:
Harper $30
Donaldson $35
Sano $1
Syndergaard $1
C. Archer $3
Seager $1
Syndergaard and Archer are nearly sure deals for me. Do I take a risk on Seager or Sano, or go with locking down Harper at a reasonable $35?
This is one of the toughest keeper questions of the day. Can you keep these guys indefinitely in the future at the $5 inflation rate, or just one season (2016)?
Good question Trey. If you can keep with a $5 raise for multiple years in a row Sano becomes one of the slam-dunkiest keeps in this thread for me
We can keep any player for two years – $5 over previous year for year 1, and ESPN auction value for year 2.
Ok, in that context I think I spread out my risk slightly and go with Harper, Syndergaard, Sano. I like Syndergaard a bit better than Archer, and I’m inclined to go with Sano over Seager only because he’s had more time to make some adjustments (though I’m assuming Sano already has 3B eligibility in your league…)
That’s a tough one, I like Harper a lot at that price, but Sano could be worth 20+ easily. I think I’d have to take the sure thing in Harper though, he could be potentially be worth 40-50 this year this year, giving you close to Sano’s surplus value, plus the pure production of Harper. TBH I think you have great options keeping any 3 of the non-Donaldson guys there, so I wouldn’t worry too much about making the wrong move! (not to crap on Donaldson, he’s just the weakest value in that group of six really good players for me)
@Trey @Justin
29 team keeper league 10×10 (includes foul tips, infield fly rules, and defensive indifference), only retired Mariners players allowed.
I can keep Griffey in the first round or Randy Johnson in the third, and Chone Figgins in the 50th or Omar Vizquel in the 43rd for my superutility spot where I get points for grit and leadership
Really depends on whether the dome is open or closed
Last keeper: Justin Turner or Jose Berrios? In win-now mode but 3B covered by Carpenter.
Or, alternately: Berrios or JP Crawford? Have an aging Tulo covering SS at the moment.
I’d go Crawford. I think he offers way more upside than Berrios and Carpenter is a solid 3B if you’re using him there (although I’d rather use him at 2B if possible)
Seven keepers in a 12-team dynasty roto league with weekly moves so 3 good SPs can get the job done. Plan on keeping bumgarner, Jose Fernandez, darvish, schwarber, and sano. Last two spots are coming down to Lindor or Corey Seager at SS and either Dickerson or Cain at OF. Also have maikel Franco. Thoughts?
I prefer Seager to Lindor easily, and I I’d take Dickerson over Cain (and over Franco) unless you really need steals.
Thanks, I agree! But now how about with Dickerson going to TB? Road splits don’t look good for Dickerson. Cain does offer steals that I won’t be getting from any other keepers thus far.
20 Team H2H OBP keeper (forever) league. Last 2 keepers outta Gausman, Lawrie and JP Crawford. SP Keepers Gerrit Cole, Carrasco, Salazar and Matz. Less coverage in MI with Kipnis and no other 3B. Love Crawford’s up-side plus I have no other SS and he might be up with the Phillies sooner rather than later; love Lawrie’s dual eligibility and his bounce-back potential & Gausman may be an ace in the making. I’m on the verge of competing in 2016.
Thanks in advance ….
I definitely keep Crawford of those 3. After that I feel like I’d take Gausman. Do you think you can find a viable replacement for Lawrie in the draft? I don’t imagine that would be *too* hard, while Gausman’s upside might be harder to replace.
Thanks Tom.
Roto 5×5 (OBP) – 16 team / 10 keepers / 4 years max on roster / normal snake with unkept players / 9 position players + Util
7 Definites:
Goldschmidt (1B) – 3 years left <- Required to keep
Hanley Ramirez (LF) – 3 years left <- Required to keep
Jacob DeGrom (SP) – 3 years left <- Required to keep
Nolan Arenado (3B) – 2 years left
JD Martinez (RF) – 2 years left
Dee Gordon (2B) – 2 years left
Jose Bautista (RF) – 2 years left
3 more needed:
Todd Frazier (3B) – 2 years left
Zack Greinke (SP) – 1 year left/last year
Hunter Pence (RF) – 3 years left
Danny Salazar (SP) – 3 years left
Eduardo Rodriguez (SP) – 3 years left
AJ Ramos (RP) – 3 years left
Carter Capps (RP) – 3 years left
Cody Allen (RP) – 3 years left
I'm leaning Frazier, Greinke, Pence as my last 3 keepers. Do you agree? Or do you think Greinke in Arizona in combination with his getting a year older and being on the last year of his contract means I should go for Salazar/Pence? Last year I shrewdly kept Prince Fielder over Julio Teheran (but then fumbled by trading Fielder for Hanley Ramirez) and thinking Greinke might be another shrewd but prudent place to cut bait.
Also, I'm thinking of trying to trade Greinke + Bautista for Correa (3 years left) + a scrub. Would you do that? (Caveat: under our rules, off season trades must be 1 for 1 and you have keep all players… so I'd have to keep the scrub)?
Would you still do that if he upped the asking price to DeGrom as the SP?
I’ve established a rep as a Greinke hater today so I need to keep my brand strong. I like the chance at 3 years of Salazar as he improves over 1 year of Greinke that might not be great.
In the trade scenario, I’m already leaning towards cutting Greinke, so it becomes more like Bautista for Correa. I think I’d do that considering Correa is still entering his prime while Bautista is leaving his. Honestly, the scrub is what gives me more pause, because it seems like the scrub would be killing a roster spot you could use for one of these good keepers. You’d really be giving up Bautista and a combination of Greinke (whether you want him or not) and the keeper you could have use Greinke’s spot on if you had cut him. That’s a tougher pill to swallow.
Can keep five. 15 teams. Pitching has the be 5 SP’s and 3 RP’s. Have to start 4 outfielders. Standard 5×5.
Encarnacion – $34
K. Wong – $6
Segura – $3
Cespedes – $18
L. Cain – $5
B. Burns – $3
R. Castillo – $3
Sale – $33
Salazar – $6
Smyly – $3
Osuna – $3
Ziegler – $3
I haz a sad: stupid nationals traded for Revere.
Was hoping to go into 2016 with two high upside multi-cat options for my OF5 spot in Rusney Castillo and Michael Taylor, both at a dollar (and I need some cheap value to preserve other keepers). Am I now stuck relying on Castillo alone, needing to throw Taylor back in the heap? Or can I stick with this strategy despite the setback?
Other OFs are Harper ($19), Carlos Gomez ($13), JD Mart (needs a contract, prolly $10 or $13) and Revere ($3).
11 team, standard mixed 5×5, $264 budget, four bench spots
16 team, h2h/points, snake draft, 4 keepers with no restrictions or draft round penalties etc. Lf/Rf/Cf spots with one additional OF spot.
I consider Josh Donaldson, Dallas keuchel, and troy Tulowitzki locked in keepers. Here are the following options that I consider keepable:
Nelson Cruz
Corey Dickerson
Cole hamels
Francisco Lindor
I pick 11th and have investigated the potential players available around my pick:
Justin Upton
Prince Fielder
Yasiel puig
Matt carpenter
Johnny cueto
Wade Davis
And possibly but not probably:
Carlos carrasco
Miguel Sano
From what I’ve studied, I would have the opportunity to redraft all of my potential 4th keepers except for Nelson Cruz. I initially set out to have Dickerson as my 4th (he has Cf eligibility) but I find it very likely to acquire him or puig within the first or second round. Hamels is in the same boat, while Lindor seems to be outside the first round for sure at this point.
There is a significant drop off in available sp, as the non keeper list looks like carrasco, (hamels), cueto, darvish, tyson Ross, Zimmermann, stroman, McHugh, mccullers etc.
So is Cruz the play or should I be considering alternatives? Also, feel free to suggest not keeping Tulowitzi as well, as I’m seeing a lot of dissenting opinions on him. Hopefully people are still answering some of these and thanks for the advice if you do!
10 team NL Only league. I have a surplus of OF’s, how many is too many to keep (start 5)? I’m trying to trade at least one of Braun/Puig/Cespedes. Would a $14 Gerrit Cole be good value? Would there be any you’d be okay throwing back if I can’t work out a trade? I’d hate to have constrains to start out the drafts bc I already have my OF spots taken.
McCutchen $30
Braun $23
Cespedes $21
Puig $22
Ozuna $6
Piscotty $16
Santana $1
I’m in an Auction League. H2H, 14 Teams 23 roster spots so pretty deep. I can keep 3 players of which I’m already keeping Arenado @ $12 & Boegearets @ $5. However I can keep either Cody Allen @ $1 or Carlos Rodon @ $5.
Allen I can only keep @ $1 for one more year, where Rodon I have two years of control @ $5. I don’t ever pay for saves so I usually just draft Setup men for $1 and then work waivers if they don’t pan out (how I got Allen for $1 3 years ago).
All the analysis I’m reading says Allen over Rodon, but seeing that Rodon has a lot of upside and realistically could return @ least $10 value this year and possibly more in 2017 what are your thoughts?
I think I’d stick with Allen. Rodon could return 10 this year, but he could also be awful and give you negative value. Allen is a safe bet to produce well beyond his $1 salary, I’d take him.
16 team H2H keep 8. We have IF,OF and Util positions. Funky salary structure so I’ll simplify
Keep 2 of the following: Stanton, Cespedes, Cano, Votto and Greinke
Keep 6 of the following: Seagar, B Crawford, Eaton, Parra, D Peralta, ARod, Giles, Stroman, Tolleson
I’d take Stanton and Votto of the first group.
Second group, I think I’d keep Giles, Stroman, Peralta, Crawford, Tolleson and Seager (that’s Kyle? If it’s Corey, that’s an even easier keep).
Would Lazarito be worth a first overall dynasty pick, over the guys drafted in June ’15? If not, who would be your top 3-5? I have a few years before really competing.
10 team 6×6 H2H league with OBP, SLG, HR, R, RBI, SB and IP, QS, ERA, WHIP, K/9, SV , $260 budget keep 12, finished 2nd last year, pitching very strong in the league.
Trying to decide who my last guy should be between
$28 Greinke
$8 Eaton
$11 Soler
$8 T Ross
I’m already keeping Scherz, deGRom, Harvey, and Carrasco all at solid discounts. I’m wondering if I should keep T Ross for $8 since it’s a pretty solid bargain compared to Greinke for $28 and use additional cash for offense/saves? Thanks for any help
Definite keepers
$28 Goldschmidt
$11 Dozier
$20 Machado
$4 Seager
$34 Harper
$25 Gomez
$21 C Davis
I prefer Ross out of those four.
Thanks for the input!
10-team standard 5×5. Each team can keep up to 5 hitters, with 7 player limit total. My hitter are pretty locked but mediocre choices abound for pitchers. Each player has a similar draft round penalty, around 14th round for each. Focusing on 2016 performance:
Garrett Richards
Carlos Martinez
Steven Matz
Alex Wood
Lucas Giolito
I have 2 roster spots that I’m going to use on prospects. I am in a 11 team, NL only league, dynasty, roto, league. I’m thinking of choosing between Mallex Smith, Josh Hader, Wilson Contreras, Keury Mella, and Amir Garnett.
I’m in a 16 team dynasty, 6×6 H2H with K/BB and OPS extra cats, plus QS instead of W. the leader of each roto cat at the end of the season wins $. Here is my roster. C – Wilson Ramos, 1B – hosmer, 2B – kipnis, SS – correa, 3B – sano, OF – stanton, nelson cruz, marte UTIL – beltre, ortiz BN – brantley, avisail garcia, harrison, Dickerson, xander SP – price, teheran, sonny gray, jose fernandez, peavy, salazar, Karns, rich hill, jake degrom, gausman, liriano, jamie Garcia, buchholz RP – papelbon, perkins, carson smith, melancon, Minors – kelby tomlinson, susac, justin williams, manuel margot, verdugo, pham, trayce thompson, jorge mateo, gilbert lara, tyrell jenkins, alex reyes, john lamb, eickhoff, bruce rondon. Just won my first championship and my team is built to contend for a while.
I’d like to upgrade my C. I’ve been going hard after Schwarber. The other owner initially was resisting but he came up with a package that he’d consider. He’s looking for Sano and Alex Reyes for Schwarber + hector rondon. The only way I’d consider the deal is if I picked up Hector Rondon (he also has Boxberger/cishek). I see Sano and Schwarber as somewhat similar offensive forces with Sano having more power and Schwarber having more upside in avg (although I’m not sure how much more). I think they’ll be similar in obp with Schwarber having the edge depending upon how they each fare in avg. So I see it as a deal where I can basically move sano’s offense behind the plate, replacing Wilson ramos. It’s a yahoo league so schwarber only has to start 5 games at C to keep his eligibility which I certainly think is reasonable for a few seasons at least. With Sano, it sounds like they’re going to make him an OF this year and I don’t really anticipating him getting any time at 3B this year, so he’s lose his eligility next year and be unable to replace beltre when the time comes anyway. Once he goes OF only, I’d have 5 spots (3 OF, 2 UTIL) for Sano, Stanton, Brantley, marte, nelson cruz, Dickerson, xander. So for these reasons, I’ll say Schwarbs could be the slightly more valuable players. Even so, I’m not sure if the dif between Schwarber and Sano plus Hector Rondon is worth Alex Reyes. Closers are so unpredictable from year to year and Maddon has shown a willingness to adjust his back end of the bullpen even when Rondon is pitching well that I’m not sure there’s a guarantee of how long Rondon keeps that job. I think Reyes has a chance to be a beast. Is the upgrade at C and CL worth giving up Sano’s power and alex reyes?
Thanks!
10×10 dynasty league, keep 8 every year. Hitting Cats: R, HR, RBI, SB, BB, K, AVG, OBP, SLG, XBH. Pitching cats: IP, W, L, SV, HR all, K, ERA, WHIP, k/bb, QS. I have machado (qualifies at 3b and ss in our league) and correa. Another owner is offering Kris Bryant for either. Which 2 of the 3 would you hold on to?
Thanks
That’s a tough call. I doubt Machado keeps SS eligibility beyond this year, so then you’re looking at having two 3B keepers if you trade Correa for Bryant. I wouldn’t do that. I think I probably favor Bryant over Machado slightly due to his power upside and the better supporting cast, but they’re 1 and 1A. Flip a coin.
10-team, standard 5×5, keep 4 in perpetuity with no cost. No-brainer keepers are Goldy and Rizzo. Then I need to pick two of Bogaerts, C. Seager, Strasburg and Carrasco. I generally like having one pitcher keeper and I’m leaning towards Carrasco.
Bogaerts > Seager at this very moment, but that could very well change as soon as, like, Opening Day. Help!
Can keep 4 guys. Go a round earlier than last years draft. Round in parentheses. If player was picked up on waivers they go in 13th round.
Altuve (1) Arenado (2) Cespedes (5) C. Davis (7) Correa (12) Schwarber (13)
Leaning Altuve, Arenado, Correa, Schwarber.
Thoughts?