Rotographs Rankings First Run – Second Basemen
Some of this is being repeated from the Primer piece that went up this morning.
We’re bringing them to you earlier this year, but that also means that they’re far from set in stone so take that into consideration as you peruse them. There are still strong arms on the free agent market, let alone all the moving and shaking that happens once players start reporting to camp.
- Outfielder (Jan. 18)
- Starting Pitcher (Jan. 20)
- Shortstop (Jan. 22)
- First Base (Jan. 25)
- Catcher (Jan. 26)
- Second Base (Jan. 27-today)
- Third Base (Jan. 28)
- DH (Jan. 29)
- Reliever (Jan. 29 courtesy of the Bullpen Report crew)
We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments.
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There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?!
Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. Like I said, it’s early. Things are going to change.
The chart is sortable and by default it’s sorted by AVG. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1. That would be 50 for Zach, 56 for Dan, 46 for Mike, 48 for Brad, and 46 for Paul K. Everyone in the top 50 was on the lists of Jeff and myself so we don’t have any +1s. They are indicated in red on the chart.
Key:
- AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
- Adj. AVG– the average minus the high and low rankings
- SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings
| PLAYER | Jeff | Zach | Dan | Mike | Brad | Paul | Paul K | AVG | Adj. AVG | Split | |
| 1 | Jose Altuve | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 |
| 2 | Dee Gordon | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0 |
| 3 | Robinson Cano | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1 |
| 4 | Ian Kinsler | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 5 |
| 5 | Rougned Odor | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 6 |
| 6 | Jason Kipnis | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 7 |
| 7 | Anthony Rendon | 11 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 8 |
| 8 | Brian Dozier | 7 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 4 |
| 9 | Dustin Pedroia | 9 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 3 |
| 10 | Matt Carpenter | 12 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 6 |
| 11 | Daniel Murphy | 8 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 19 | 11 | 11.7 | 11.0 | 11 |
| 12 | Ben Zobrist | 13 | 15 | 12 | 16 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 5 |
| 13 | Josh Harrison | 10 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 17 | 24 | 7 | 13.7 | 13.0 | 17 |
| 14 | Kolten Wong | 14 | 16 | 15 | 18 | 13 | 20 | 16 | 16.0 | 15.8 | 7 |
| 15 | DJ LeMahieu | 15 | 7 | 17 | 17 | 20 | 21 | 17 | 16.3 | 17.2 | 14 |
| 16 | Howie Kendrick | 20 | 19 | 16 | 15 | 18 | 17 | 14 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 6 |
| 17 | Starlin Castro | 16 | 20 | 14 | 20 | 24 | 16 | 19 | 18.4 | 18.2 | 10 |
| 18 | Joe Panik | 26 | 17 | 24 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 18 | 18.7 | 18.6 | 14 |
| 19 | Neil Walker | 23 | 14 | 26 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 18.7 | 18.2 | 12 |
| 20 | Brett Lawrie | 19 | 18 | 18 | 13 | 32 | 15 | 21 | 19.4 | 18.2 | 19 |
| 21 | Addison Russell | 25 | 22 | 23 | 22 | 22 | 8 | 22 | 20.6 | 22.2 | 17 |
| 22 | Brandon Phillips | 18 | 25 | 19 | 19 | 23 | 27 | 15 | 20.9 | 20.8 | 12 |
| 23 | Logan Forsythe | 24 | 21 | 27 | 24 | 21 | 22 | 24 | 23.3 | 23.0 | 6 |
| 24 | Jonathan Schoop | 28 | 24 | 28 | 26 | 19 | 14 | 32 | 24.4 | 25.0 | 18 |
| 25 | Trea Turner | 17 | 23 | 20 | 25 | 35 | 39 | 23 | 26.0 | 25.2 | 22 |
| 26 | Martin Prado | 27 | 26 | 25 | 28 | 25 | 29 | 25 | 26.4 | 26.2 | 4 |
| 27 | Cory Spangenberg | 21 | 27 | 22 | 23 | 41 | 26 | 29 | 27.0 | 25.4 | 20 |
| 28 | Scooter Gennett | 22 | 33 | 21 | 27 | 40 | 25 | 28 | 28.0 | 27.0 | 19 |
| 29 | Brad Miller | 30 | 28 | 31 | 29 | 15 | 34 | 30 | 28.1 | 29.6 | 19 |
| 30 | Chris Owings | 29 | 34 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 28 | 38 | 31.1 | 30.4 | 10 |
| 31 | Enrique Hernandez | 40 | 32 | 41 | 35 | 38 | 23 | 26 | 33.6 | 34.2 | 18 |
| 32 | Chase Utley | 37 | 29 | 38 | 36 | 31 | 33 | 31 | 33.6 | 33.6 | 9 |
| 33 | Johnny Giavotella | 31 | 36 | 35 | 37 | 48 | 38 | 27 | 34.0 | 34.8 | 21 |
| 34 | Javier Baez | 32 | 50 | 30 | 46 | 36 | 40 | 33 | 34.2 | 33.7 | 20 |
| 35 | Jace Peterson | 36 | 50 | 33 | 31 | 39 | 37 | 34 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 19 |
| 36 | Yangervis Solarte | 33 | 43 | 36 | 33 | 37 | 31 | 46 | 35.5 | 34.8 | 15 |
| 37 | Eduardo Escobar | 39 | 31 | 39 | 41 | 28 | 44 | 42 | 37.7 | 38.4 | 16 |
| 38 | Cesar Hernandez | 41 | 35 | 45 | 43 | 27 | 36 | 39 | 38.0 | 38.8 | 18 |
| 39 | Jose Ramirez | 34 | 37 | 32 | 40 | 48 | 57 | 35 | 39.2 | 36.5 | 25 |
| 40 | Devon Travis | 52 | 41 | 50 | 32 | 26 | 35 | 44 | 40.0 | 40.4 | 26 |
| 41 | Steve Pearce | 35 | 44 | 37 | 34 | 44 | 53 | 37 | 40.6 | 39.4 | 19 |
| 42 | Wilmer Flores | 38 | 38 | 40 | 42 | 46 | 48 | 36 | 41.1 | 40.8 | 12 |
| 43 | Jose Peraza | 42 | 50 | 34 | 39 | 43 | 49 | 40 | 41.2 | 41.0 | 16 |
| 44 | Danny Espinosa | 55 | 50 | 52 | 38 | 33 | 30 | 46 | 41.6 | 41.0 | 25 |
| 45 | Brock Holt | 48 | 30 | 49 | 45 | 29 | 51 | 41 | 41.9 | 42.6 | 22 |
| 46 | Ryan Goins | 47 | 49 | 48 | 46 | 34 | 43 | 43 | 43.8 | 45.3 | 15 |
| 47 | Omar Infante | 43 | 39 | 42 | 44 | 45 | 52 | 46 | 44.2 | 43.5 | 13 |
| 48 | Kelly Johnson | 64 | 50 | 56 | 46 | 42 | 32 | 46 | 46.0 | 42.0 | 32 |
| 49 | Chris Coghlan | 50 | 47 | 56 | 46 | 48 | 42 | 46 | 46.3 | 47.0 | 14 |
| 50 | Aaron Hill | 46 | 45 | 47 | 46 | 48 | 50 | 45 | 46.6 | 46.0 | 5 |
Dang I love Odor…and so does everyone else(except you Brad!).
Is the divide with Devon Travis over health or where he will hit in that wonderful line-up?
Would someone be kind enough to explain the Odor love here? Assuming the standard 5×5, I do not see how Odor could be ranked above guys like Kipnis, Dozier, and possibly Carpenter. My best guess is that a 20 HR, 10 SB, .260 AVG season is expected of him in a best case scenario, but does that really beat any of the best case scenarios for the other three that I mentioned?
I must note that even though these rankings are for a standard 5×5 league, Odor’s ranking looks even worse in a BB or OBP league.
He hit .261 last year with a sub-par BABIP (.283). He hits a lot of infield flies, so that is a problem. But if he corrects that even a little, he could hit .275 and a .330+ OBP. That might be 75 R, 70 RBI.
I appreciate the reply. In my opinion is a big if and would be at the extreme end of good outcomes in my opinion and does not address the possible extreme end of good outcomes from others ranked around him.
From what I can tell, he has been pretty consistent in what he is during his minor league and major league career. I know that next season will be his age 22 season, but I find it very unlikely he will experience major growth when he has been what he was last season for the last 4 years or so (albeit at different professional levels).
Ugh at the lack of a quick edit…
In my opinion, it is a big if and would be at the extreme end of good outcomes and does not address the possible extreme end of good outcomes from others ranked around him.
I’m also surprised how high Odor is ranked. It seems inconsistent with past position rankings where both floor and stability were valued over ceiling. Seems like this rank is only considering his ceiling/upside. I would take everyone between 6-11 before Odor other than Pedroia.
I think in general the anti-Odor sentiment (or at least not-quite-so-pro-Odor sentiment undervalues how impressive he has been. As a 21 year old, he struggled early, then posted a .292/.334/.527 line with 15 HR and 5 SB in less than 2/3rds of a season. If you were looking for a breakthrough, there it is. And again, he was a 21 year old. The list of players 21 or under who have done anything like that this century is:
Pujols, Trout, Trout, J. Upton, Stanton, Heyward, Cabrera, Beltre, Harper, Zimmerman, Freeman, Hosmer, and that is about it. And only Pujols, Troutx2, Upton, Stanton, and Cabrera posted a higher OPS, despite the fact that Odor was playing in a relatively low offensive environment. He may not repeat that, but his performance after his call up was insane.
Huh? I really like Odor this year. But I think he’s getting a little Schwarberized by my fellows.
As for Travis, yes, health and lineup role.
Why so low on Jason Kipnis? I feel like injuries are the only thing keeping him from being the number one seconds baseman
Altuve beat him in all 5 cats last year.
His power has really disappeared, and now his sbs may be following suit. Makes, as you say, injuries are an issue.
Devon Travis seems criminally too low. He can have double digit hr/sb with a good avg and he has a chance for looks at the top of the order.
I’m really butchering this today. Obviously replied to my typo’d comment by accident.
Paul,
Why no love for Kolten Wong? Didn’t you read Chamberlain’s article?
“…he had the third-best expected batting average — essentially demonstrating he had one of the best batted ball velocities in the game, only two points below Stanton with a sample size twice as large — says a lot about the contact he’s making. He’s only 25 with room to grow.”
I didn’t read this article, but this sounds fishy to me. According to Baseball Savant, Wong had the 107th highest out of 345 batters with 100+ ABs last year. By hard hit %, he’s 101st out of 141 qualified hitters last year. Also, he had a 15.1% IFFB percentage last year which would really hurt his chances of hitting for an elite average. Steamer seems to agree, as they project him for the 120th highest avg out of 349 hitters projected for 200+ PAs in 2016.
Would you please provide a link to the article?
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/2015-hitter-babip-on-pulled-ground-balls-part-ii/
Thanks! I didn’t realize we’re talking just about pulled ground balls here. It was still surprising to me that Wong could have one of the highest velocities on pulled ground balls given that his overall exit velocity is so mediocre. I pulled the data from baseball savant myself to try and validate this claim, and I’m seeing Wong with the 154th highest pulled ground ball velocity out of 433 players with 20+ pulled ground balls. I guess I must have used slightly different parameters than Alex given that I’ve got Wong down for 115 PGB instead of his 84. Either way, the alarms are going up for me on Wong here. I did notice in my sample that a disproportionate amount of these PGBs came on off-speed stuff, so maybe the 1B is expecting it.
bump
Paul,
Why no love for Kolten?
The proper answer is I don’t know, because I actually really like Kolten Wong and backed him big time last year. We discuss him on the pod I’m editing so I’d point you in that direction. I guarantee he will move up my rankings after the talk with Eno. Especially bc I’ve been beating the drum that he has AVG upside (without the excellent statistical backing that Alex provides) so I’m glad to see I was onto something with it. I made an error and it will be corrected. He shouldn’t be 20.
Carpenter seems low for someone who could lead the position in home runs (it will be him or Dozier) while providing a .270+ BA and 180 R/RBI depending lineup spot. I can’t see putting him outside of the Top 5 and he seems like a much safer bet than Odor or Rendon at this point.
No one seems to think he will hit 27 HR again but I don’t think he does a complete 180 degree flop and goes back to hitting 7-10 either. You only had to hit 18+ HR last year to be in the Top 3 at 2B, I’m confident Carpenter will hit 18 HR with an approach similar to the one he showed last year.
Carpenter might be #3 for me after Altuve and Gordon. Cano offers a similar skill set but is three years older, Kinsler doesn’t hit home runs anymore and his SB numbers aren’t impressive either. Altuve, Gordon, Carpenter, Cano, Dozier, Kinsler, Kipnis …
So in your league draft him 3rd if you like him more than others. This list isn’t stopping you.
Carpenter might be a moot point in a chunk of leagues that don’t give him 2B eligibility.
I like him to pick up eligibility in-season at some point in leagues where 10 games is the criteria. Whether that happens by the ASB or doesn’t happen until September will likely hinge on what Wong/Gyorko do in 2016.
A thin 3B pool could also force owners to use him as a 3B.
I don’t see him picking up eligibility. They have Wong and just traded for Gyorko, presumably with the intention of using him at 2B to spell/platoon with Wong. Not sure where you get enough PA for Wong and Gyorko while also giving Carpenter more than a few starts at 2B.
LeMahieu also seems kinda low for a guy who was top 7 or so in most categories last year.
There’s a lot of doubt in his ability to repeat a .362 BABIP and 8% walk rate. If those numbers regress as we expect, he’ll also be batting at the bottom of the order. Add it all up and he’ll decline in average, SB, R, and RBI.
I still like him, just don’t buy last season’s performance as a floor (or even as a median).
I’ll be curious to see where some of these 3B eligible guys (Rendon, Carpenter, Lawrie, etc) rank on the 3B list. Will be interesting to see if some of them are actually higher on that list than on 2B (I would imagine Carpenter at least has to be, right?)
Looks like I accidentally transposed my values for Carp and Rendon. I have Carp as the #5 2B and the #10 3B. Third base is soooo top heavy and then whoosh, off the cliff we go.
Alen Hanson?
Devon Travis seems criminally too low. He can have double digit hr/sb with a good avg and he has a chance for looks at the top of the order.
I dont think Rendon will be on 2b too much in 2016, but he qualifies for most leagues this year. When he is healthy, he is a stud. He was dominant in the minors, was excellent before he got hurt. It is a definite high risk, high reward for me.
the guys above him have pretty good health…so I can see the rating….but I think I would take a chance on him. bc if healthy, he could be a number 3 easily.
martin
I agree on devon travis. Before the injuries started, he was stellar. His triple slash was .304/.361/.498 in the majors in 2015. Not sure about double digit steals but even factoring in substantial regression does not result in the above ranking. I know that he’s likely to miss the start of the season, but kang is 7th on the SS list.
Schoop .260, 30HR, 70+R, 80+RBI incoming.
Possibly. Or .205, 21 HR, 50 R, and 65 RBI.
Addison Russell has virtually the same rank across the board at 22-23, except for Paul S. at 8 – whoa! What the deal?
I’ve got him for a breakout campaign! Have him high at SS, too.
Will we eventually get ranks for OBP leagues?
Doubt we’ll be to do exclusive OBP ranks, but check this out: https://thegoodthebadandtheroto.wordpress.com/2016/01/26/last-years-rankings-5×5-vs-obp/
Very cool. Thanks for this.
What is up with D. Murphy’s steamer projection? The BA/OBP projections seem high. Steamer projects a .350 OBP when he hasn’t had an OBP that high in five years and his career OBP is .331.
Doesn’t Matt Duffy meet 2B-eligibility through Yahoo!? Believe he had around 7 starts at 2B last season for SF. If so, where would he stack up on these ranks?
With the vast amount of similar 2B in “tier 3”, why no love or mention of Neil Walker. I understand there isn’t a lot of upside, but his floor seems very stable. He consistently gets the 20+ HR+SB that were mentioned on the podcast and his avg is just a tick under the .280 threshold. Still just 30, moving to a better hitters park, decent BB and K rates, projected to hit 2nd in a decent lineup = seems to have a lot going for him. I think I’d gladly wait on him over some of the older guys ranked higher like Zobrist, and Kendrick; and injury concerns with Pedroia, Harrison. Just wondering.
Is the basis off of Brandon Phillips low projection is his hes unlikely to run as much?
I can’t speak entirely for the others, but that is 100% it for me. I just can’t see 23 SBs again, maybe half that and that’s why I have him so low.