2015 Standard Deviation of Distance Leaders

Last year, I unveiled the xHR/FB rate equation I developed that I use to help guide my HR/FB rate forecast for my Pod Projections. We’re all familiar with the average batted ball distance component of the formula. Also included is the hitter’s standard deviation of distance (SDD) of his fly balls and home runs, which has a rather high year-over-year correlation, though not as hefty as distance. That means that the leaders generally remain near the top and the bottom dwellers will rarely surge into the top quartile.

What the SDD does is remind us that the same average distance isn’t necessarily created equally. A batter with a 300 foot distance might look great when trying to project his HR/FB rate, but if that average distance was the result of 150 fly balls that traveled exactly 300 feet each, a whopping zero of them are going to leave the yard and his SDD is going to be 0. If, instead, the batter alternates between 400 foot shots and 200 footers, then he’s going to hit a lot of homers. But both would average the same 300 feet. So the SDD provides some important information and is therefore a required component in any equation trying to forecast future HR/FB rate.

So let’s get to the leaders in 2015. You might see some familiar names…

2015 Standard Deviation of Distance Leaders

Name	2015 SDD	2015 HR/FB
Joc Pederson	73.6	19.7%
Miguel Sano	72.7	26.5%
Bryce Harper	72.7	27.3%
Carlos Gonzalez	72.1	25.8%
Starling Marte	70.4	18.6%
Nelson Cruz	70.0	30.3%
Ryan Zimmerman	69.6	16.5%
Adam Jones	69.0	16.8%
Yasiel Puig	68.5	13.1%
Randal Grichuk	68.4	19.1%
Jung-ho Kang	68.4	16.9%
Mitch Moreland	68.1	18.3%
Travis d’Arnaud	67.8	15.0%
Mike Trout	67.7	25.3%
Justin Bour	67.7	21.5%

The average (not weighted by fly balls) HR/FB rate of this group was 20.7%, nearly double the league average

Forget about Joc Pederson’s poor second half. The guy is capable of some monster blasts. The issue at the moment is that Roster Resource is guessing that Pederson is slated to open the season hitting eighth in the order. That’s obviously a terrible spot. However, it also speculates that Enrique Hernandez will be the starter at second base and serve as the leadoff man. Steamer projects Pederson to post a .340 OBP, while Hernandez is forecasted for just a .297 mark. You know how a smart manager would set that lineup. We’ll see how long it takes for a change to occur. In the meantime, given that weak second half, Pederson is sure to be undervalued in all formats.

So yeah, ummm, Miguel Sano is good. Not listed above is his 299 foot average distance and 24.2% xHR/FB rate. That mark ranks as the fourth highest xHR/FB rate in baseball.

Bryce Harper’s SDD jumped by 11, which was all that was needed to enjoy that enormous breakout we had been waiting for.

I’m looking forward to Carlos Gonzalez, or any of the Rockies outfielders being traded. I love to see how park effects affect players heading to or departing Colorado.

Who knew Starling Marte has so much power in his bat? PNC Park had been holding him back, but his distance has been at least 290 every single season, and popped above 300 for the first time in 2015.

If, and this is obviously a huge if, Ryan Zimmerman remains healthy enough for at least 500 plate appearances, he’s going to be a huge profit center for his owners. All his skills were there last year, he just needs to stay on the field.

There seems to be a lot of trendy Yasiel Puig hate. I like it. Players with his talent can explode at any time. And hey, he’s this close to announcing that he’s in the best shape of his life after getting down 15 pounds from last year’s weight!

Did we know that Randal Grichuk had this much power? I certainly didn’t. But he apparently does and his output was apparently no fluke. Unfortunately, since he won’t BABIP .365 again, he’ll need to cut down on his strikeouts to avoid hurting your team’s batting average. Then we’ll find out if he could sustain that power while also making better contact, which is always an interesting test.

It’s too bad that Jung-ho Kang busted up his knee and is going to miss time because he displayed some serious power and seemed to remain under the radar. You never know how a player is going to recover from such an injury, so his 2016 performance expectation is very much up in the air.

If only Travis d’Arnaud could stay healthy. He has top three catcher upside.

Where did Justin Bour come from?! He posted a 20% xHR/FB rate so he was very deserving of his actual 20%+ HR/FB rate. That the Marlins are bringing in the fences should help offset some of the regression he was likely facing. Oh, and he can’t hit lefties, so he’s worth a bit more in leagues that allow daily transactions so you don’t have to take a 0 on the days he’s on the bench, like you would in weekly transaction leagues.