Nationals Playing Time Battles: Hitters

We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

We ran through the Nationals’ pitching battles yesterday. Since then, Bronson Arroyo has joined the team on a minor league contract. If he’s healthy and performing, he’ll probably push one of Tanner Roark or Joe Ross out of the rotation.

With one exception, the Nationals don’t really have any position battles. What they do have are several regulars who frequently land on the disabled list. So we’ll talk about them, their back-ups, and what the club may do between now and Opening Day.

First Base

There’s no battle here. Ryan Zimmerman will start nearly every game he’s healthy. When he’s on the field, Zimmerman is still an above average hitter. If he were a third baseman, that would be a much more exciting assessment. As a first baseman, Zim is one of those guys fantasy owners take when they neglect the position entirely. He still bats in the heart of the order, giving him ample RBI opportunities.

While Zimmerman was sidelined last season, Clint Robinson actually outperformed him at the plate. In his rookie season as a 30-year-old, Robinson hit .272/.358/.424 with 10 home runs in 352 plate appearances. He’s a fine streaming option when he’s playing. He demonstrated good plate discipline, above average contact skills, and non-trivial power. Don’t get too excited about the career minor leaguer, but he could be sneakily serviceable in an every day role.

Shortstop

This is the real roster battle, yet I think it’s already all-but-decided. The team is very publicly supporting Danny Espinosa as the starting shortstop. As many observers have noted, manager Dusty Baker has a thing for veterans. Also involved in the battle are rookie Trea Turner and the corpse of Stephen Drew.

In 2015, Espinosa rebounded nicely from two seasons of futility. He made small but meaningful improvements to his walk and strikeout rates. His contact rate also surged.

Despite his success, he’s a very hard player to project. A high infield fly rate and plenty of soft contact makes his .299 BABIP look fortunate. He’s made a career of inconsistent plate discipline so there’s no telling if his small improvements are sustainable. I suspect 2015 is something of a best case scenario. He could still repeat his atrocious 2013.

I’m sure you want to read about Turner now, but it’s going to take a fantastic spring for him to force his way into the picture. Drew is probably second in line for starting reps. He was a replacement level utility infielder last year. Once upon a time, he was a highly regarded player, and he does have a 3.4 WAR 2013 in the rear view.

If Drew was going to rebound, it probably would have been last season. He did blast 17 home runs in 428 plate appearances – a career best home run rate. He also struggled to make consistent contact with a .201 average, .201 BABIP, and the batted ball peripherals to support the low BABIP. Still, there’s a whiff of veterany upside about him. If Espinosa is terrible this spring, Drew may get a shot at a renaissance.

And now, Turner. There’s no question he’s the future of the franchise at shortstop. Unfortunately for us, I’m confident the club hopes to get him more seasoning in the minors. He was modestly successful in a 205 plate appearance sample at Triple-A, but there are still parts of his game that could use work. In particular, he appears passive at times which causes his above average contact skills to play down.

Turner could probably take the reins and perform just as well (or better) than Espinosa or Drew. In the long term, it may be better for the club if he was the one gaining major league experience. There are two more reasons why the Nationals may prefer the developmental approach.

The service time game is a consideration. Turner accrued 45 service days last year. If Washington keeps him in the minors until sometime around June 1, they’ll gain an extra season of club control. More importantly, teams like to control as much depth as possible. If Espinosa, Drew, and Turner are comparably valuable in 2016, the team is better off rostering the veterans with Turner on deck as a call up. If Turner is on the roster, it may mean that Drew or another utility man isn’t.

Sorry Nats fans and fantasy players. I know you want to see Turner now. I do too. The club has too many reasons to explore other options first. Maybe we’ll still get what we want.

Third Base

As with first base, there’s no battle here. Anthony Rendon is considered by many to be injury prone. If he hits the disabled list once again, Turner will probably be summoned to man shortstop with Espinosa and/or Drew sliding over to third base.

This also applies to Daniel Murphy at second base. He’s not injury prone per se, but he’s not an iron man either.

Outfield

Despite a full outfield of Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth, Ben Revere, and Michael Taylor, the Nationals opportunistically tried to acquire Yoenis Cespedes. That effort failed, but it might signal a willingness to chase another outfielder like Dexter Fowler or one of the Rockies’ surplus. The picture could become more complicated between now and Opening Day.

We know Harper’s a full time starter. Revere is kind of fringy as a center fielder, but that’s where he’ll start. Werth will also play regularly. Once again, the battle is with attrition.

Fantasy owners wanted to see Taylor get a chance to build upon his 2015 success which included 14 home runs and 16 stolen bases in 511 plate appearances. Taylor has serious contact problems – a 30.9 percent strikeout rate and 16 percent swinging strike rate. His overall performance was saved by an excellent defensive season.

While home runs and steals are great in fantasy, Taylor is a bottom-of-the-order hitter with no ability to hit for average. He’ll damage you in two or three categories if he plays regularly. In other words, he’s better as a streaming pick than a fantasy regular.

Until somebody hits the skids, Taylor will probably play about three days a week. The club wants to keep Werth fresh so he may only start about 5 days a week. Revere also doesn’t warrant an every day start. Whoever winds up as the fifth outfielder – probably Matt den Dekker or Chris Heisey – will have trouble cracking the lineup.

Catcher

This last battle is kind of pitiful from a fantasy perspective. Wilson Ramos could be marginally useful if he stays healthy. Last season, he had a career best 504 PA, but they were terrible. Projection systems and fantasy analysts alike expect a rebound season for the 28-year-old. It’s also possible he’ll either continue to play poorly or land on the disabled list.

As of now, Jose Lobaton is the backup. You’re not going to roster him. The Rays appear poised to discard Rene Rivera. He could be an upgrade here with fringe fantasy value in deep NL leagues (only if he’s traded).