Rotographs Rankings First Run – Third Basemen
Some of this is being repeated from the Primer piece that went up this morning.
We’re bringing them to you earlier this year, but that also means that they’re far from set in stone so take that into consideration as you peruse them. There are still strong arms on the free agent market, let alone all the moving and shaking that happens once players start reporting to camp.
- Outfielder (Jan. 18)
- Starting Pitcher (Jan. 20)
- Shortstop (Jan. 22)
- First Base (Jan. 25)
- Catcher (Jan. 26)
- Second Base (Jan. 27)
- Third Base (Jan. 28-today)
- DH (Jan. 29)
- Reliever (Jan. 29 courtesy of the Bullpen Report crew)
We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments.
We can also be reached via Twitter:
There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?!
Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. Like I said, it’s early. Things are going to change.
The chart is sortable and by default it’s sorted by AVG. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1. That would be 47 for Zach, Dan, and Mike, 40 for Brad, and 48 for Paul K. They are indicated in red on the chart.
Key:
- AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
- Adj. AVG– the average minus the high and low rankings
- SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings
| PLAYER | Jeff | Zach | Dan | Mike | Brad | Paul | Paul K | AVG | Adj. AVG | Split | |
| 1 | Josh Donaldson | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 2 |
| 2 | Manny Machado | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 3 |
| 3 | Kris Bryant | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 4 |
| 4 | Nolan Arenado | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 2 |
| 5 | Todd Frazier | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 5 |
| 6 | Adrian Beltre | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5 |
| 7 | Kyle Seager | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 2 |
| 8 | Miguel Sano | 6 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 13 | 11 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 8 |
| 9 | Evan Longoria | 9 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 3 |
| 10 | Matt Carpenter | 14 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 7 |
| 11 | Anthony Rendon | 13 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 10.6 | 10.8 | 8 |
| 12 | Maikel Franco | 11 | 9 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 4 |
| 13 | Mike Moustakas | 15 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 14.1 | 14.2 | 4 |
| 14 | Daniel Murphy | 10 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 18 | 21 | 15.0 | 14.8 | 11 |
| 15 | Josh Harrison | 12 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 22 | 20 | 14 | 15.7 | 15.2 | 10 |
| 16 | Jung-ho Kang | 16 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 4 |
| 17 | David Wright | 23 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 17.1 | 16.6 | 9 |
| 18 | Matt Duffy | 17 | 12 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 17.7 | 18.6 | 7 |
| 19 | Pablo Sandoval | 19 | 19 | 17 | 20 | 21 | 15 | 18 | 18.4 | 18.6 | 6 |
| 20 | Justin Turner | 18 | 21 | 20 | 24 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 18.9 | 18.6 | 9 |
| 21 | Trevor Plouffe | 22 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 25 | 21 | 24 | 22.3 | 22.0 | 4 |
| 22 | Brett Lawrie | 20 | 20 | 23 | 18 | 33 | 23 | 25 | 23.1 | 22.2 | 15 |
| 23 | Nick Castellanos | 25 | 29 | 26 | 22 | 17 | 24 | 20 | 23.3 | 23.4 | 12 |
| 24 | Chase Headley | 24 | 23 | 24 | 28 | 29 | 28 | 23 | 25.6 | 25.4 | 6 |
| 25 | Yasmany Tomas | 26 | 25 | 22 | 27 | 38 | 43 | 22 | 29.0 | 27.6 | 21 |
| 26 | Cory Spangenberg | 21 | 34 | 25 | 25 | 40 | 26 | 32 | 29.0 | 28.4 | 19 |
| 27 | Martin Prado | 27 | 26 | 27 | 29 | 31 | 35 | 30 | 29.3 | 28.8 | 9 |
| 28 | Luis Valbuena | 28 | 24 | 33 | 35 | 26 | 34 | 27 | 29.6 | 29.6 | 11 |
| 29 | Jake Lamb | 30 | 30 | 28 | 32 | 28 | 39 | 28 | 30.7 | 29.6 | 11 |
| 30 | Jed Lowrie | 31 | 27 | 35 | 30 | 32 | 27 | 35 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 8 |
| 31 | Danny Valencia | 34 | 28 | 37 | 23 | 20 | 38 | 40 | 31.4 | 32.0 | 20 |
| 32 | Yunel Escobar | 32 | 32 | 34 | 37 | 37 | 31 | 29 | 33.1 | 33.2 | 8 |
| 33 | David Freese | 33 | 31 | 32 | 38 | 34 | 36 | 34 | 34.0 | 33.8 | 7 |
| 34 | Yangervis Solarte | 37 | 40 | 38 | 31 | 30 | 29 | 39 | 34.9 | 35.0 | 11 |
| 35 | Lonnie Chisenhall | 36 | 36 | 40 | 26 | 40 | 41 | 37 | 36.6 | 37.8 | 15 |
| 36 | Hector Olivera | 40 | 33 | 30 | 33 | 40 | 45 | 36 | 36.7 | 36.4 | 15 |
| 37 | Javier Baez | 35 | 41 | 29 | 47 | 36 | 44 | 33 | 37.9 | 37.8 | 18 |
| 38 | Joey Gallo | 43 | 42 | 31 | 42 | 40 | 48 | 26 | 38.9 | 39.6 | 22 |
| 39 | Adonis Garcia | 29 | 39 | 36 | 36 | 40 | 51 | 41 | 38.9 | 38.4 | 22 |
| 40 | Cesar Hernandez | 44 | 37 | 46 | 47 | 23 | 42 | 42 | 40.1 | 42.2 | 24 |
| 41 | Derek Dietrich | 53 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 27 | 30 | 43 | 42.0 | 42.8 | 26 |
| 42 | Giovanny Urshela | 45 | 46 | 44 | 39 | 40 | 33 | 48 | 42.1 | 42.8 | 15 |
| 43 | Mark Reynolds | 49 | 47 | 47 | 46 | 40 | 37 | 31 | 42.4 | 43.4 | 18 |
| 44 | Brock Holt | 51 | 35 | 47 | 47 | 24 | 47 | 46 | 42.4 | 44.4 | 27 |
| 45 | Cody Asche | 41 | 38 | 41 | 43 | 40 | 52 | 45 | 42.9 | 42.0 | 14 |
| 46 | Will Middlebrooks | 46 | 47 | 45 | 34 | 40 | 40 | 48 | 42.9 | 43.6 | 14 |
| 47 | Jonathan Villar | 39 | 43 | 42 | 45 | 39 | 57 | 38 | 43.3 | 41.6 | 19 |
| 48 | Jose Ramirez | 38 | 45 | 39 | 44 | 40 | 50 | 48 | 43.4 | 43.2 | 12 |
| 49 | Danny Espinosa | 57 | 47 | 47 | 41 | 35 | 32 | 48 | 43.9 | 43.6 | 25 |
| 50 | Marwin Gonzalez | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 40 | 49 | 48 | 46.4 | 47.2 | 9 |
I’m surprised to see Bryant above Arenado in all but 2 rankings.
The top 4 3B are nearly identically valued. You can “correctly” list them in any order.
im with zach and brad-
bryant and sano are closer together than most think.
What does Kris do better than Arenado? I’m confused.
Do you mean other than hit the ball harder & farther, steal bases and hit in a lineup that isn’t terrible?
Kris will be praying to have the season Arenado had last year. Oh and 10 steals? Amazing.
Is Bryant’s ceiling basically what Arenado did least year?
I get the steals, but Nolan had 40 2B’s, 40 HR’s, and only struck out 16.5%. Not to mention he plays at Coors.
I don’t see the line-up being much worse this year.
Doesnt get much better than an 89 to 110 extra base hit to strikeout ratio. Arenado is a beast. But hey, Kris is 9 months younger and will probably get 10 more steals.
Heh, Bryant had a 1% higher Hard contact rate. And Arenado has Coors. Arenado has some untapped AVG potential, too. Could pop 35+ HR w/a .320 AVG. Bryant better repeat that .378 BABIP or he’ll be down in the .250s-.260s. 10 SBs can’t cover 30 pts of AVG (that’s without Arenado improving), more HR, and more RBI.
I agree with Paul, somewhat. Arenado should strike out half as much as Bryant, so he should have a big leg up in the avg department. I disagree in that the steals can’t cover the difference in average. By my numbers, 30 points in average is worth 6-7 steals, in a vacuum. However, these players don’t play in a vacuum.
Bryant should have ~40% of plate appearances end in a walk or strikeout while Arenado should have ~20% of plate appearances end in a BB or K. Given 600 plate appearances, that means Arenado puts the ball in play roughly 120 more times than Bryant. That will lead to a lot more RBIs. I think 20 more RBIs is fair.
I’d leave the runs about equal, though. If Arenado has a .300 average to make the math easy, he’ll get on base via hit 120*.300 = 36 more times than Bryant. However, a 6% difference in walk rate over 600 PA is 36 more times on base for Bryant via walk.
So for me, it’s really the RBIs that make the difference here putting Arenado over Bryant.
Strong work. And not just bc it agrees with me, lol
Matt, Arenado will also be praying to have the season he had last year.
I’m not saying Bryant is hands down better. I’m saying, yours is an odd argument to make.
@novaether
You just changed my mind on Arenado. I dont like taking players based on them getting ridiculously high RBIs but you made a strong point on why he should be able to duplicate it.
It’s probably a matter of his OBP and his ability to steal 10+ SB. He has better raw power, too, even though Arenado’s power totals exceeded Bryant’s last year.
I’m inclined to agree with you. Bryant and Sano have some great tools but I’ll take the guy with similar power and half the K rate, please.
Steal bases and draw walks…
Bryant was a rookie, so I think most people see improvement on the horizon. It’s true that Arenado had a better season, but this isn’t about LAST year, it’s about this year. Kris Bryant will improve on his stats, but I doubt Arenado does.
I have a feeling 2015 was Arenado’s peak. Kris Bryant is going to have one of those crazy peak seasons that look like something Manny Ramirez used to do.
Gonna be hard to have a “Manny peak season” with that trash strikeout rate.
The certainty with which so many think Bryant WILL improve is mind-boggling.
Projecting him to have a BB or K rate better in the majors than he ever did in the minors seems like a pipe dream to me.
Interesting. Paul’s on the extreme side for both Beltre and Sano (he’s the lowest ranker) and Rendon (highest ranker).
I think I’d rather have Carpenter over Longoria but it seems like most of the guys are more or less as expected.
I am wee bit surprised with Turner’s overall rank compared to some others before him. Is it just the possible playing time risk dragging his rank down? I definitely prefer him to guys like Moustakas, Murphy, Harrison, Wright, Kang, and Sandoval for various reasons.
100% agree
Turners going to be a great stopgap while Sano is working on his eligibility.
Anybody care to explain how Rendon ends up three spots ahead of Carpenter at 2B but one spot behind him at 3B?
The only thing I can think of is if it’s an upside thing – if you’re more willing to take a lower floor / higher ceiling player like Rendon at 2B than at 3B.
This is odd. The only other thing I can think of is if some rankers are using a z-score method, using (projected) stats only from players in the applicable player universe. So for example, if the players qualifying at 3B have a lower mean BA than the players qualifying at 2B, carpenter’s higher BA gives him more value in this ranking than it did in the 2B ranking.
I don’t subscribe to that line of thinking, and maybe it’s not the approach that was used here. But I can’t think of another explanation for the same people ranking two players differently relative to one another in a span of four days
I had a typo in the 2B ranks, Carp and Rendon were switched. I noted that in the comments. That’s not enough to fully explain the difference in the composite by itself.
We’ve talked a bit behind the scenes. I know my positional rankings are designed to be consistent with my Top 300 list. Others only rank by the position without regard to the Big Board. This is bound to create a few idiosyncrasies like this.
Ah, that changes the picture a bit but definitely doesn’t fully explain the difference. Mike and Paul K are the other two who ranked Rendon ahead at 2B but ranked Carpenter ahead at 3B. Would love to hear their rationale – if it does have to do with upside or z-score, it would make for a truly fascinating article!
Frazier at 4! HAHAHAAHA two words second half.
I think Arenado is good, but last years BABIP is unattainable or expected each year. He will regress, but not past 4th or 5th in my humble opinion.
Love this position this season!
I’m not sure I agree. His .284 is actually low given his ability and home park. I think there’s a great case that he ADDS to his batting average.
Whaaa????
From 1-10, 10 being the riskiest, how would people rate Machado’s risk of a significant injury.
On one hand he’s blown out both knees, and has had a major surgery. On the other hand, he was very young and young people heal faster/don’t feel the effects till several years down the road. Also, he stole 20 bases last year, which is a good sign that his knees are feeling alright. Whether I view him as the 2nd or 4th best 3B of the group really hinges on this question.
Know what fangraphs could use? An orthopedic surgeon who can resolve questions like this. Actually, that’s a really good idea.
This is a very uninformed opinion, so please take it with a grain of salt. From what I can recall from both of his knee injuries, they were sudden and not a gradual wearing down over the course of months. I believe those sort of sudden injuries can happen to any player, so I would put him at 1 or 2 along with every other player that doesn’t have some sort of chronic injury. It really doesn’t factor for me.
Thumbs up for the complimenting your own statement one sentence later.
But ignoring the potential cost of having a orthopedic specialist who focuses on sports injuries fielding fantasy baseball questions, it is actually a good idea.
That was my favorite part too.
Ya know, I am smart and do have great ideas.
And doggone it, people like me!
Brad and/or Paul – I’m curious to hear the case for Machado over Donaldson. Would you mind giving your pitch?
I had them come out as virtual ties in value (along with Arenado and Bryant). It’s a very top heavy position. With Machado, I see burgeoning power, speed, and a good track record. Most importantly, he’s very young. Donaldson is a 4 category stud, but he doesn’t have the steals and he doesn’t have age on his side. If I’m choosing a 3B with the 8th or so pick, I go Machado every time. The five category foundation is too much to pass up, even if I’m giving away a few runs and RBI.
As a Donaldson (and Rendon and Kang who I am using at 2B and SS respectively next year) owner in my league, I have no qualms with Machado or Arenado over Donaldson. If I was offered either for Donaldson, it would be something I’d have to think very carefully about as I totally get the youth and dreams of the upside components. I would say the same for Bryant, but as talented as he is, I think people are ignoring the risk associated with his current skill set and are only recognizing the upside.
How is Sano put in with the 3B. He didn’t play enough games in almost every format to qualify as a 3B
“We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances.”
As far as I’m aware, Yahoo is also the most popular fantasy platform. In my opinion, it’s hands down the most user friendly. It’s weaknesses are in customizability which only affects advanced users (like us).
I’ve never understood why all fantasy baseball ranking don’t incorporate Yahoo! eligibility since, as Brad mentioned, it is the most popular fantasy platform.
1) Doing so answers the question “where would player x rank if he was eligible”. Go check every single 1B fantasy baseball ranking article and you will find at least one comment concerning David Ortiz and where he would rank with 1B eligibility. 2) If you know your platform has more stringent position eligibility then simply remove “player x” from the rankings and move everyone up a spot. Easy.
At least Rotographs is on-board.
In my opinion, one of the best opportunities for profit at this position is Franco. He could easily end up top five with a hitting line similar to something Adrian Beltre would put up a few years ago.
This would be even better if you got the positions correct. Even though Brett Lawrie “qualified” as a 3B, (a) he also qualified as a 2B, where the bar for value above replacement is lower, and (b) he’s going to be playing 2B this season. A similar story can be made for Rendon, Kang, Daniel Murphy, Josh Harrison, etc.
It detracts from the analysis.
Pardon? They’re listed at the positions where they qualify. I don’t see how that’s an issue.
Isn’t this a fantasy analysis and not a “real life” ranking? That being said, Yahoo sucks lol. I thought I was being liberal with my 15 appearances minimum for position eligibility in CBS. Sano is now my DH. Yuck.
Let me apologize for being too strident – it’s a GREAT analysis. When I rate a player by position, I’d always move them to the role that’s the most scarce in fantasy, and treat the other eligibility as a small bonus. So I’d always think of Daniel Murphy as a 2B, or Kang as a SS.
Compared with you guys, my rankings are more pessimistic on Beltre (age), Longoria (no more breakouts) Moustakas (burned before) Pablo Sandoval (food) and David Wright (major injury risk). And I seem like like Maikel Franco (upside) and Daniel Murphy (safe and solid) quite a bit more than some of you.
I also think the “throwing darts” upside of Jake Lamb and Javier Baez might be underestimated. They might be “nothing”, but they could be “something” – and some of the guys ahead of them appear to have no chance of being “something”.
But I would have reached none of those conclusions without your work! So I thank you, and apologize for my indiscretion.
One issue for 2B/3B is that 3B is actually the shallower position this year. The talent is very good at the top, but if your league has any kind of depth, a couple owners in your league will need to use a 2B eligible player at third or CI.
Replacement level can vary by the league format. For example, a league with a corner IF, middle IF, and a util probably has similar replacement values for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, and maybe OF because these positions tend to level the playing field. In other words, if 2B is “deeper” than SS, then people will use 2B in their MIF until it’s not deeper any more.
That being said, it makes sense every player is listed at every position they’re eligible using the most relaxed of guidelines. If you think 3B is deeper than 2B in your league, then cross out the dual-eligible guys from the 3B list. If Sano isn’t available at 3B in your league, then cross him out. The rankers are making an all-encompassing list here to satisfy everyone.
What are the chances that Machado gets 5 starts at SS this year?
With not much seperating the top 4, I think Machado being SS/3B eligible would make him #1. Otherwise I have to put Donaldson and Arenado over him.