Nicklaus Gaut’s 2023 SP Rankings – The Next 50

Must. Reach. Finish line…So. Close. We’re almost done with our positional previews, having now covered catchers, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, outfielders, and relievers. We got started on the starters last week, checking it on the Top 50 options. But as we leave those tiers behind, the waters necessarily get choppier, with more categorical warts appearing as player quality (and reliability) begins to drop off. So, before we get to this latest Rankening*, let’s have a quick chat about how these ranks come to be and the wiggle room inherent.

*not a word…yet

At the root, it’s the same as always; stats get turned into dollar amounts, and the dollar amounts determine rank. But these things can be even more fluid with starting pitchers, than they are with hitters, as it’s very easy to put your projection thumb on the value scale by simply projecting a few more starts (or the reverse). Give even an average pitcher 1-2 more starts and just the extra innings will let him accumulate enough stats (according to the projected rates for SO/IP, W/IP, etc) to move him up the raw value ranks a few spots. But things can swing even more extremely when dealing with a talented pitcher whose projected for fewer starts whether due to age, injury concerns, etc.

For example; Chris Sale is ranked #54, being projected for 24 GS and 130 IP. But let’s say my hope for his heath springs eternal and I give him two more starts; without changing any of his projected rates, Sale quickly bumps up to the #40 SP. Or, if we’re really feeling froggy, we could project (pretend) that he’ll reach 28 starts; Again, without even changing the talent rates, Sale would now rank as the #28 SP. As I said, it’s easy to put your thumb on the scale.

Moving beyond changing games started (and the subsequent differences in IP), you can also instigate big changes by increasing/decreasing their per-IP rates for Wins, SO, ERA, WHIP, etc (with the ratio stats driven by the per-IP rates for ER, BB, H, etc). But these changes need to be more dramatic in order to shoot players up the value ranks, as you’re only changing a single scored stat, as opposed to affecting multiple categories when you adjust GS and IP.

These same fluctuations are obviously also possible with hitters but I tend to stick more to my created values when ranking them, as I’m more confident in the width of their value bands. That is, how easily their value can stray out of where my projections are assuming they’ll be. This isn’t just because hitter value tends to be more predictable than pitchers; it’s more about how knowing my confidence in how much of their value (good or bad) I’ll be capturing over the course of a full season.

With hitters, there is a much larger pool of players that you’re going to start every game, even when they’re slumping, and will capture most of their value, even if it’s less than what you were projecting. Ignoring extreme examples where a drafted hitter is so brutally bad (or is unexpectedly losing playing time) that he must be benched, you’ll have to fall pretty fall down the ADP tree before you hypothetically start benching/dropping guys.

In a 12-team league, your likely hitter bench will include players in the range of Trey Mancini, Yandy Díaz, Ha-Seong Kim 김하성, etc. Assuming normal production from your bench, how bad (and for how long) would Christian Yelich (123 ADP) have to be in order to start sitting him? Going deeper, what about Josh Bell (175 ADP), or Jake Cronenworth (185 ADP)?

Any player can cross the benching threshold but my point is that you’re going to have to just eat some slumps with hitters sometimes, especially in leagues with weekly lineup locks. That threshold should be lower with starting pitchers, however, as there are more variables that come along with how they match up against some opponents. Yes, there are plenty of SPs you be running out almost every time, even if the recent performance has been suspect. Start your aces (and kind of aces), and all that. However, while you might not bench the Bell and Cronenworths of the world after a two-week slump, the story should probably be different with starting pitchers from a similar drafting perspective.

As we go lower in my SP ranks, the less certain I am in the ratio of captured- to projected value, and this is why my deeper ranks don’t move in complete lock-step with projected value, as my general feel on pitchers needs to also take the wheel a bit. And as you’ll see later, I believe I’ll be able to squeeze (capture) the best parts of some otherwise somewhat suspect pitchers by virtue of manipulating usage.

But enough talk – let this penultimate Rankening*, commence!

*Oh, it’s definitely a word now

We’ll start by looking at the starting pitchers who finished #51-100 in 2022, including their ranks in each half, using an SGP method to make our values. One note – in last week’s Top 50, Spencer Strider and his RP to SP transfer somehow got merked out of the ranks, making everyone after be off by one. It doesn’t really matter but this is why Carlos Carrasco appears as #51 this week but was included as #50 last week.

An-nny well, here we go:

And here are the stats that made them earn their place, again for the year, as well as by half:

The past is dead and gone – time to move our eyes to the future. Here are my SP ranks for #51 – #100, followed by the used tiers that are totally normal, with a sortable chart at the end.

Tier: That WHIP Tho

Let’s start down the list a bit so we can first chat about WHIP and keep me from repeating the same points later.

1. Respect Yo WHIP! – WHIP sometimes seems like the forgotten ratio, lost in the ERA shuffle, easy to assume they’re moving on parallel tracks. But do remember the two won’t always dance partners – and out in the wild, a good ERA/bad WHIP won’t be as rare as the reverse; hits and walks don’t always score runs but it’s way more difficult to score runs without walks and hits. And WHIP holes dug by your drafted starters will be hard to climb out via wire surfing, as it’s not a category the typical pool tends to excel at.
2. Flip Side of the No-Shift Coin – Compared to the hitters, there hasn’t been nearly as much talk about how the new shifting rules will affect pitchers. But part of that is because quantifying the effects on pitchers isn’t nearly as straightforward as with hitters, as shifts are driven by who’s at the plate, not who’s on the mound. Pitchers will certainly be affected though and I happen to think WHIP will suffer more casualties than ERA; again, hits don’t always turn into runs but they always count against your WHIP. No shifts will bring rising BABIPs, and BABIPs beget more hits. All will likely suffer some but that’s just a relativity adjustment; what’s more important is what type of pitchers will feel more degrees of pain. And the suspect ones who already had issues suppressing hits will be on the front lines.

End mini-WHIP rant

#65 – Patrick Sandoval, LAA (208 ADP, #58 SP)

#73 – Alex Cobb, SF (236 ADP, #64 SP)

I might be a known Patrick Sandoval apologist but the unbearable weight of his massive WHIP is putting this Nick’s enthusiasm in a cage for 2023. His walk rate has stayed steadily below average but he’s always given up hits, even when he’s running sharp. And without the benefit of full shifts, more hits will be finding holes; with a shift behind him in 2022, Sandoval allowed a BABIP almost 40 points lower than without one, and a batting average that was 60 points lower.

I’ll still be drafting him (and have already) when he comes with a little discount but only on teams where my WHIP is looking very shiny.

It’s almost a rinse/repeat with Alex Cobb, who might have a better walk record than Sandoval but is just as big of a hit-giver, racking up 1.30 WHIPs like the store’s running out. With a contact% that hews closer to 80% than to 70%, I’m not expecting things to suddenly change.

If he again pitches near a full season(something he’s only done once of the last four), Cobb will be a perfectly solid option for ERA and strikeouts. But the risk of him again missing time, combined with the WHIP anchor he’ll carry around even if on the field, will only put Cobb on my teams when I’m getting a steep discount on draft day.

Tier: Forgive Me, Tony

#51 (but moving on up!) – Tony Gonsolin, LAD (166 ADP, #47 SP)

My deepest apologies to Tony Gonsolin (who is obviously reading); you should’ve been in the Top 50. But seriously, how can I do a whole screed about WHIP lovin’ but then hate on a guy who has a 0.90 WHIP for his career and posted a 0.87 WHIP over 130 IP in his fullest season yet?

I’m not expecting him to post a sub-1.00 WHIP again but think it will be well above average. Add an ERA that’ll again be good (but just maybe not great), plus the wins rub the Dodgers bring, and Gonsolin seems like a pretty safe floor to pay at his current market value.

Tier: I Can’t Believe “Operation: Just Wait For Lance McCullers Jr. to Inevitably Get Hurt” Has Already Been Activated

#57 – Hunter Brown, HOU (242 ADP, #67 SP)

Okay, I can actually totally believe it – but I wish McCullers could’ve waited a few more weeks, as the Hunter Brown hype train was mostly being held back by his lack of a rotation spot. But much like with Spencer Strider last season, sometimes you just have to bet on the talent and hope the opportunity shakes itself out. Which is what I’ve been doing, scooping up some cheap Brown in almost every draft I’ve done so far. But thanks to McCullers’ unbridled selfishness in not waiting to announce the inevitable, that discount tag is about to get ripped right off.

Don’t get too twisted; Brown is not Strider and you shouldn’t be expecting to get an ace with a ridiculous strikeout rate right out of the gate. But while Brown might not get as many whiffs as Strider, what he has done along every stop of his pro career is get buckets and buckets of grounders, with hitters pounding both of his secondaries (slider/knuckle-curve) into the ground at an alarming rate. And it’s not like he’s a slouch in the strikeout department, either, registering a 28% K% over his first 20 IP cup o’ coffee in the bigs, and a 32% K% over 106 IP in Triple-A.

Brown has a heater that sits 96-97 mph, two secondaries that generate extreme groundball rates, with the curveball also getting above-average whiffs. Oh, and he’s in the perfect organization for getting the best out of his stuff, not to mention having Obi-Wan GB-nobi himself, Framber Valdez, by his side to whisper mystic secrets.

This is what’s known as a recipe for success; don’t go hungry by missing out on Brown.

Tier: Ok, But Just Imagine How Good He’ll Be In Tampa Bay

#67 – Roansy Contreras, PIT (299  ADP, #83 SP)

It’s hard valuing good pitchers on bad teams, as they’re always dragging that Wins weight but hey, the Pirates have to be better this year, right? But even if they’re not, the stuff that Roansy Contreras brings to the table continues to bewitch me, just as it did last season when he littered most of my draft-and-hold teams, even coming in knowing that his playing time wouldn’t be a full load.

The frustration of his back-and-forth usage should be a thing of the past, though. The Pirates have no service-time reasons to waste his time in Triple-A, and with a total of 130 IP in 2022, reaching 150 IP should be well within his reach. And even with the “but Pirates” caveats, a near-300 ADP seems very juicy, with his price not rising nearly as much as I assumed it would after turning in a good 2022 that included more than a couple of gems.

As long as you’re not longing for Wins, Contreras is an easy investment at his current price.

Tier: Is Chris Young Going For a Fantasy Overall?

#72 – Nathan Eovaldi, TEX (245 ADP, #68 SP)

#77 – Andrew Heaney, TEX (212 ADP, #60 SP)

Bring me ALL of your starter risk – we bathe in it! Not merely satisfied with giving Jacob deGrom $185 million, Texas GM Chris Young doubled – nay tripled – down on building an all-or-nothing rotation, spending another $59 million over the next two seasons for a pair of starters not exactly known for their ability to be counted on every five days.

Nathan Eovaldi missed large chunks of time in 2022 dealing with back and shoulder issues but otherwise turned in a solid performance, posting a 3.87 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over 20 starts. Ok, solid is doing a lot of work there, as those ratios (and 6 wins), aren’t exactly page-turners, while his 22% K% was back down to where he was prior to 2020-21.

But! It’s very easy to draw some straight lines between Eovaldi’s performance before and after going to the IL in June:

Prior: 12 GS – 68 IP – 26% K% – 3.16 ERA – 1.10 WHIP

Post (until going back on the IL on 8/13): 6 GS – 31 IP – 6.32 ERA – 1.63 WHIP

You know, I’m starting to think he might have still been hurt. Eovaldi did return to make two more starts, allowing just one run total, with a 0.93 WHIP. But what about that velo?

Wanna play “when did he get hurt?”

Heading into spring training, Eovaldi is someone I have a big eye on*. Not for his performance, necessarily; just that velo. If it’s trending back toward his 96-97 mph normalcy, my March drafts are going to be all over him anywhere near his 240 ADP. But if we get through a few spring appearances and the heater is closer to the 93-94 mph he was rolling with post-injury last season, Eovaldi might be E O off my board.

* Alright, alright – great news from the velocity standpoint in Eovaldi’s first start on Saturday, hitting 98 mph multiple times and striking out four batters in two innings…Let’s go!

Andrew Heaney turned in a masterful performance in 2022, running a 3.10 ERA and 1.09 WHIP (both career bests) and a 35.5% K% that was his best by seven points. Geez, how in the world is he only at a 212 ADP???

Oh…It’s probably the just 73 IP in 2023 and/or his entire career:

Like the Reverse-Alcantara, Heaney simply cannot be trusted to make it through an entire season. If he does – hell, it doesn’t even have to be his unicorn 2018 season (180 IP), just give me the 130 IP from 2021 – Heaney will blow his draft cost out of the water.

There just aren’t any giant red flags in his stuff, which was the best it’s ever been in 2022. Probably not a total coincidence after spending the year with one of the best pitching organizations in baseball, reworking his delivery and stuff, while bringing a new sweeping slider to the party. And that sweeper was the truth; at 32% usage, it generated a 25% SwStr%, 44% Whiff%, and 45% Chase%.

Granted, Heaney also gives up a ton of hard contact (bottom 1%) and is basically a two-pitch pitcher now, with the changeup dropping to 5% and the curveball just getting dropped. I may have him ranked far below his average price but his drafting band is a wide one and even baking in the injury risk, the upside in drafts where he falls will be tantalizing. Especially if you are confident in streaming his spot after the inevitable shelving.

Now, let’s all join hands and try to manifest a healthy Heaney being the one who gets a two-start week in late April against the Royals and A’s.

Tier: Earning Another MPE or Just An Excuse to Show You Mr. Milchik Getting Down?

# 78 – Martín Pérez (325 ADP, #93 SP)

It’s the former?

.

.

.

.

 

Ha-Ha! You’ve clearly been duped by my clever subterfuge. And for that, I apologize. None may atone for my actions but me and only in me shall their stain live on. All I can be is sorry, and that is all I am.

We celebrated earning a Martín Pérez Experience last season but there’s no time like the present to double down on a pitcher coming off of a career year that seems destined to get hit by the hammer of regression. All aboard the hype train part deux!

“Whoa-whoa-whoa!  Absolutely not – that’s enough, Nicklaus. We let you have your WHIP rant, respected the principle behind giving Patrick Sandoval the heel and appreciated you making things right with Tony Gonsolin. But we will, not – Not! – accept said rant if you’re going to now propose trying to survive riding the Martín Pérez lightning again. No, no, no. We can’t come with you. You’re in too deep, walk away from the table while you still can. “

Sincerely,
We care about you

Worry not, ethereal interruption, there is a method to my madness and one that hasn’t changed.

You don’t have to (and shouldn’t) start him every time. Groundbreaking, right? But being obvious doesn’t make it less true. You’re power-streaming Pérez for everything but strikeouts, looking for bulk innings, ratios, and wins while trying to tiptoe through the matchup tulips.

I’d put the chances of his putting up a repeat 2.89 ERA (3.80 xFIP, 4.08 SIERA, 4.18 pFIP) and 1.26 WHIP at near zero. Pérez is a 4.00 ERA/1.30 WHIP or more, kind of guy, and one outlier season in which he had near career lows in HR/9 and HR/FB% shouldn’t radically alter the long-term outlook. But even if it ultimately shakes out that way in total, the crafty manager should be trying to capture much better rates, particularly in an April schedule that features a lot of homer-happy matchups, and/or venues.

That’s not ideal. Counterpoint: Texas Chili Company Dollar Hot Dog Night. Is that something you might be interested in?

Looking at the above, let’s amend the aforementioned recommendation; don’t draft Martín Pérez, just wait until his drafter rage-drops him following a 5.00 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in April. And then you swoop in to do some May streaming on a schedule that features the Pirates, Tigers, A’s, and the Rockies at home.

Fantasy wizardry, reborn!

Tier: Never Gonna Give You Up, Even If You Let Me Down

#74 – Ranger Suárez, PHI (303 ADP, #86 SP)

Oh my sweet Ranger Suárez, what happened to my beautiful, seam-shifted boy? Well, speaking of getting rage-dropped by the masses, Suárez came out plopping after starting the season late due to visa issues, going 4-3 through April and May, with a 4.69 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. A 3.77 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in June were steps forward but lower back spasms put him on the shelf after a 4 ER loss to Atlanta.

The Suárez that came back, though, was the best one yet, finishing the season with 76 IP of a 2.95 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, going six or more innings in seven of his 14 starts. And honestly, his captured stats for fantasy-wise should’ve been even better – I don’t really know what to tell anyone that thought he was a viable option in his last (and worst) start of the year. On the road at Houston went predictably awful, allowing 6 ER in 3 IP while racking more home runs (3) than strikeouts (2). Throw out that obvious booby-trap and he drops to a 2.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP following his return from the IL.

It wasn’t just a balky back holding him down. Suárez’s mix was in need of adjustment, and he found it via the introduction of a new cutter that replaced a chunk of his sinker usage, while completely dropping a slider that was lightly used but often hammered. The cutter gave him a better weapon with which to attack righties on the inside and help his sinker play up while working down, with the latter’s GB% jumping back up into an elite tier, posting a 74% GB% in the second half that was 13-points higher than in the first.

I’m back in (never left) on Ranger but am I going to go all wacky like these nutjobs?

Did Bill James and I just become best friends? pic.twitter.com/GnFCwoxkBF

— Nicklaus Gaut (@Nt_BurtReynolds) March 22, 2022

No, probably not but at a bargain basement post 300 ADP, my Roster(Ranger)% in 2023 will again be quite high.

Tier: My Children Believe Anything Can Be a Joke As Long As You End With “Wacka-Wacka!”

#83 – Michael Wacha, SDP (510 ADP, #119 SP)

Speaking of bargain basement prices, the secret is getting out on Michael Wacha, particularly after signing with Padres on a one-year deal following a 3.32 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 127 IP for the Red Sox, collecting double-digit wins (12) for the first time since 2017. Wacha has been evolving his pitch mix and the money changeup he’s always had crushed at new levels in the second half of 2022, generating a 34% CSW%, 26% SwStr%, and an outrageous 50% Chase%. He won’t always be a must-start but couldn’t have found a softer landing spot than in San Diego, with a pitcher’s park that can blunt some blows, and backed by a great offense and bullpen.

The price may be rising since signing but a 420 ADP on NFBC in the 28 drafts since he signed is still more than affordable. Basically free in most formats, Wacha could be a monster steal. And if not, I hope you find solace in knowing that we’re in this together.

So-ooo, Wacka-Wacka?