Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – February 27th, 2023

Justin Mason: Need a few more questions…

Justin Mason: In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Justin Mason: Happy TGFBI Day to all those who celebrate!

Justin Mason: Still time to get into TGFBI satellite leagues if you want to try and win your way into the big contest next year! http://tgfbi.com/satellite-leagues/

BB: What sort of prospect would you want in exchange for the rights to the top Japanese/KBO players (murakami, yamamoto, sasaki, etc), assuming a deep dynasty league w/ dedicated prospect slots

Justin Mason: To be quite honest, I do not know enough about NPB/KBO to give a good answer. Hit up Tim McLeod

KevinT: What do you think about the red sox batting Yoshida down in the order? Good/Bad. Sox office sure looks like it could be eaten alive by a strong lefty with 5 of their top 7 hitters being lefites

Justin Mason: I think it is bad for fantasy. He doesn’t profile as a great power source so I was looking forward to him leading off. I probably won’t draft him again this year

Craig: Any of the non-opening day rotation ATL SP that you like? Between Morton’s age, Wright’s health and Soroka’s return from injury, I imagine there will be an opportunity for someone to shine.

Justin Mason: I was in on Wright before the injury news. I will watch for an update before I draft him again. I am out on Soroka. Needs to prove health. Morton is a decent gamble to rebound. Strider is super enticing but the price is so high I may end up missing out.

Mickey Rivers Cuomo: In OBP league, what order for Justin Turner, Yoan Moncada, Anthonry Rendon, and Yandy Diaz?

Justin Mason: Turner, Diaz, Rendon, Moncada

Dan: Doing a roto with an innings limit for the first time. How many SP/RP would you typically run with a 1400 IP limit? 5-6 SP for 150 IP each then fill in the gaps with relievers?

Justin Mason: 6 SPs and then relievers

JV: What are your expectations for Jose Abreu this year?  The team around him seems very positive – and while his analytics say he is still a great hitter it does worry me that he struggled against fastballs and lost a lot of power.

Justin Mason: He would have had 22 homers in Houston last year, I expect something close to that. He is a value in drafts.

Dan: Using SV+HD as a single category should push down closers a ton, right?

Justin Mason: Yes because holds are easy to find

Anonymous: Two HR Sunday… are we doing Jarred Kelenic things again?!

Justin Mason: I am! I also don’t want to go overboard. One big game should make you increase the price you were willing to pay last week.

Paddy: If you load up on bats, how late are you willing to wait for an SP1? Framber/Fried/Darvish too late?

Justin Mason: I am totally fine doing that. I have a league where I started out with Both Darvish and Fried in a league and really liked it.

KevinT: Any thoughts on any late power options? I am having trouble finding people besides Nolan Jones and Adam Duvall after pick 300?

Justin Mason: Nelson Cruz, Isaac Parades, Brandon Belt, Drew Waters. It is not as easy as it used to be.

Dan: Yaz, Joc, or Conforto your favored Giant OF? How do you expect PT to shake out?

Justin Mason: Joc platoons and likely so does Conforto a bit. The DH will be used a lot for these guys.

KevinT: Great work with Podapolooza! You are a great person and all your work is greatly appreciated

Justin Mason: Thank you! it was a blast!

Anonymous: NFBC is a huge outlier on Nico Hoerner, of all people (135 overall). Everywhere else, he’s 180ish- Any idea why the sharps love him and are paying such a premium?

Justin Mason: Elite contact skills, may lead off, will gain 2B eligibility quickly and has speed on a team that likes to run. I am in on the hype.

Colton: Good morning Justin! Hope you’re well today. Trying to decide on a back up third baseman right now, have Hayes, Justin Turner, Brett Baty and Jung are the one’s I’ve narrowed it down to. I’ll get all of these guys right at the minimum, is there one in particular that stands out to you?

Justin Mason: I like all four, but Hayes has the speed at a position that doesn’t offer much. If you don’t need speed, Jung is my favorite

Mickey Rivers Cuomo: Better one-dimensional SB threat: Myles Straw or Esteury Ruiz?

Justin Mason: Straw because his defense will keep him playing.

Justin Mason: I like Ruiz and he could be great, but he is just as likely to be a version of what Straw was last season on a much worse team in a much worse park.

Guest: Detmers?

Justin Mason: I like Detmers, but I haven’t drafted a ton of him yet. Waiting to see if the Angels roll with a 6-man rotation.

Dan: Heliot Ramos going to be good enough to use a roster spot on in 2024?

Justin Mason: Probably not.

Anonymous: Jason Heyward swing change, if he lands the Dodgers CF gig post- post- post-hype sleeper?

Justin Mason: In NL only or draft and hold, I guess.

JLPicard: Keep forever question. Been offered Franco & India for Henderson & CJ Abrams. Standard 5×5  – 16 team league. Thanks and appreciate the chats.

Justin Mason: That is tough. I lean Franco side here because of him, but I would hate to sell low on Abrams.

Craig: Your thoughts on Jordan Montgomery for the upcoming season? He obviously had a terrific August and September following the trade from NYY to STL. But, his HR9, BB9 and SO9 were pretty similar Before The Trade and then After The Trade. And, his HardHit% actually went Up while with STL. Could his success with STL simply be due to lesser competition in the NL Central? His 11 GS included COL, CHC, WSN, CIN, PIT. And, the 5 GS he had in STL against Top 10 Offenses (LAD, NYY, ATL, MIL 2x), he gave up a total of 15 ER in 25 IP (5.40 ERA). What do you expect from him this upcoming season? Take “a jump” or a similar season as 2022?

Justin Mason: I think it is a similar season to what we saw in St. Louis, but that is pretty damn good. Great defense and very good park. I am a buyer

Jesse Winker Tailor Soldier Spy: Twins showdown:  Kepler or Gallo (5 x 5 OBP)?

Justin Mason: Kepler

Art: Hi Justin, NL only 5×5 roto with OPB, $260 budget to buy 9 active hitters, 9 pitchers and 7 reserve players. Can keep 5 players forever at salary shown. How would you rank: Yelich $12, Cruz $8, Carroll $2, Abrams $1, Alvarez $3, Walker $3, Tovar $2, Baty $3?  Thanks.

Justin Mason: Carroll, Walker, Cruz, Abrams, Yelich

Anonymous: How does one avoid feeling like they’re a wet blanket party pooper for not believing in uber-prospects (this is a Gunnar Henderson subtweet)

Justin Mason: I am not a believer in Henderson either. Had real platoon problems in the minors and majors. He is just too expensive in redraft. In dynasty, I believe in the upside.

AJ: Time to worry about Alex Kirilloff?  In a keep forever league, time to try and move on and get something for him or wait it out and see if he can be a stud still?

Justin Mason: Always lol. He needs to find health and for me I need to see it before I buy in .

Help!: I’m in an 8 team AL only league. 6×6 roto. $260 auction budget. I’m keeping JRam for $37, but I can keep Jung as well for $10. Witt is going back to the auction, but Bregman, Devers and Gunnar are likely being kept. According to Paul’s rankings, Jung is the 6th best 3B (and second best available) in my league. Auction calculator says no, but Paul apparently says yes. What say you?

Justin Mason: I like Jung a lot. I am not worried by what we saw last year because he came back from an injury that was supposed to sideline him all season. I probably am right there with Paul

Vince: Hi! Great Podapallooza panels! Appreciate putting it together!

Justin Mason: Thanks! I had a great time

Jesse Winker Tailor Soldier Spy: Graveman or Reynaldo Lopez? (Standard but deep enough league where non-closers have value, so better overall value for whole year even if Hendriks comes back)

Justin Mason: I think Graveman gets the job, but it could get passed around. The White Sox could also bring someone else in. I might avoid the situation moving forward.

Broken Bat: What happens in regards to pitch clock when:

Justin Mason: Seems like you ran out of time on the clock

DesperatelySeekingSeager: Hey Justin,

Justin Mason: Hey!

Should i move?: I’ve heard you reference many times how you grew up in the DC area and you are tickled pink you left. Can I get some specifics why it sucks here as a lifelong Northern Virginian?

Justin Mason: I love visiting the area still, but DC wasn’t the safest place to grow up and there were too many tourists lol. The summers were brutal with the humidity. I miss the falls and springs though. We go from winter to summer here in California and the summers are just as brutal but in a different way.

Anonymous: Can WBC performance influence your fantasy picks, or is it just pure fun?

Justin Mason: Not a ton in spring is going to move me unless we see something different. I’m watching health, velocity for pitchers, lineup spots for hitters, strikeouts and walks for both.

Broken Bat: what happens to pitch clock when: 1. Pitcher asks for a different ball every few pitches, gets ahead in count and throws one in dirt tomscuff up. Umpire tosses new ball, pitcher says no, give me another.

Justin Mason: I think that the clock runs if and when they ask for a ball. It is going to be messy for a little while lol

Old Prospector: Having a hard time defining position scarcity this year. Am I right to say that OF and 2B are shallowest for top tier players?

Justin Mason: Absolutely. 2b is bad for the top middle and bottom.

David: Where is the best place to play bestball for fantasy baseball?

Justin Mason: Fantrax, Underdog, and NFBC

JV: Is there any chance that the Rays just roll Fairbanks out there as an elite closer and zig against the bullpen by committee strategy that they started?

Justin Mason: They have done it before with Fernando Rodney and Alex Colome, so it wouldn’t be completely shocking. I am not projecting that though.

1B: What is a realistic expectation for T.Casas this season, AB/HR/R/RBI?

Justin Mason: 450 ABs, 20+ bombs

David: and also, is there a strategy shift for bestball, for instance worrying about the distribution of a players outcomes instead of the median projection?

Justin Mason: Run your points system through some sort of calculator! Each format is different and can wildly change the values. Make sure you have plenty of backups at each position because you can’t address injuries in season. I tend to stay away from the injury prone guys because of you can’t drop or replace them. Streaky guys get bumped up because you don’t have to take their bad work but balance them with boring steady guys because you don’t want to all of your guys to be cold at once late in the season with injuries pile up.

Craig: Clarifying my question on the ATL pitchers… I meant, any of the potential SP that are not currently slated for the starting rotation. Meaning… Ian Anderson, Bryce Elder, etc. Any interest in any of them? NL only league.

Justin Mason: Anderson could be interesting if he looks good in spring. He was being drafted as a top 40 starter last year, there is an outcome where he becomes that again.

Guest: Keep 3 pre tenth rd keepers: Yordan(hand ok?), A Riley, Witt Jr, Freeman, Vlad Jr, Verlander, Woodruff and then keep 2 post tenth rd keepers: Michael Harris 2, Schwarber, Glasnow, Framber.

Justin Mason: Witt, Yordan, Vlad. I am a little worried about Yordan though so I can understand pivoting to Freeman or Woodruff. Give me Harris and Schwarber for the rest

SP: Detmers or E.Cabrera?

Justin Mason: Detmers

KevinT: There was a significant number of players who lost 3 position eligibility last year. Who are you looking at for this year later in drafts? I like Kike Hernandez alot and Isaac parades

Justin Mason: Parades is someone I have been targeting lately. I also take a lot of LeMaheiu and Urias though they aren’t going as late as Parades.

Ramp: There is a lot of buzz around Bryce Miller in Mariner’s camp. With Marco coming off of two negative WAR seasons and getting lit up in his first ST start, could you see Miller breaking camp with the big league club and having upside as a SP 3/4?

Justin Mason: I think it is unlikely he breaks camp, but could be up early.

Jack: Thoughts on Yordan? He still produced at an elite level last year with the hand issue. I think he can play through it again, but he had a lot of days off to manage it at the end of the season. Should we be expecting 130 games this year?

Justin Mason: I was lower on Yordan than the market prior to this news because of previous injury issues and lack of speed, so this likely means I do not draft him. I am not overly worried about this, but it is just another red flag for me.

Aaron: Who are 3 deep sleeper hitters and starting pitchers you think can provide great value?

Justin Mason: Friedl, Nelson Cruz, Tavares, Bradish, Eflin, Gore

Justin Mason: If that isn’t deep enough, let me know lol

Dan: Mancini, Winker, or Wil Myers for best bounce-back candidate?

Justin Mason: Myers

K2: Doing my first ever draft & hold. Recommended strategy on RP depth? Handcuff with my closers or go speculating for next most likely closers? Is 7 the right number of total RPs to go for?

Justin Mason: I go with 7 relivers. 2-3 closers I believe in and then high upside gambles. I don’t mind handcuffing my established closers, but I don’t think you have to.

Jesse Winker Tailor Soldier Spy: Best handcuff in Baltimore for Felix Bautista?

Justin Mason: Probably Mychal Givens

DesperatelySeekingSeager: Hey Justin, In a 6×6 OPS 10 team league, H2H categories, I feel like just punting sb and focusing on the power. Wise strategy or folly?

Justin Mason: I don’t mind punting SBs in that format.

Seth: I have a limited draft budget, and I have Framber, Gallen, and Springs as my keeper SP. Those three are a solid enough base for me to put most of my money towards hitting?

Justin Mason: I believe so.

Vince: Could you give me your thoughts on Matt Olson vs next tier (Vinnie P, Nate Lowe) in 10-tm H2H category OBP.  ATC has Olson @ $31, Lowe $9.50, Vinnie @$7.  Is Olson worth the huge gap?

Justin Mason: I don’t think he necessarily is because you pass up on a lot of good speed players and SPs where he goes. I usually prefer Lowe and Vinnie P and Abreu later over Olson

Jack: Can you answer this question somewhere between chalk (Judge, JRam, Turner)  and bold (Buxton, deGrom)? 2023’s #1 fantasy player is? An answer that would surprise me, but isn’t necessarily bold.

Justin Mason: Tucker. If he gets moved up in the order and doesn’t start slow, he could be the #1 guy. I could also see Bichette, Vlad Jr, and pitchers like Strider do it.

Broken Bat: Who do you want in 4x4league,  with 5 outfielders, Taveras, Marsh, Kiermeier, Siri, Outman, Belanger. Who is definitely not on any of your teams.

Justin Mason: Taveras

Justin Mason: Kiermaier is not on any of my teams

Dan: Which player that you don’t like very much are you ending up with the most shares of?

Justin Mason: Cody Bellinger. The price is just too good

Jack: Is it a disadvantage at all if you to be doing this during the TGFBI draft?

Justin Mason: Nah, I made my first pick already and it stalled right after.

Dan: What’s your KDS preference looking like this year?

Justin Mason: I have been preferring to draft in the middle. I think there are 6-8 guys in the conversation for the top 4, so I will take whoever falls to me. I also like the back of the draft as well because I think there are about 20 really great talents before it falls off.

Seth: Is Tommy Edmans worth keeping as my 2B? He is $18 in a 16 team keeper league ($280 draft budget).

Justin Mason: I think so. 2B is garbage.

Damian: Just reassure me Rockies will play Tovar and not do Rockies things

Justin Mason: I do not want to lie to you

Justin Mason: but it looks like it!

Jack: If you made a deal with the devil to win TGFBI, but then you could never play in, or talk about fantasy baseball ever again, would you do it?

Justin Mason: Nope

Jack: Does the value of a Toby mean something different in a mono League? These players aren’t as easy to pass up on due to the reduced player pool

Justin Mason: The deeper the league the more important boring pitchers or “Toby’s” are. Nick caters to more shallow formats so that is why he hates those guys.

Jack: Who wins more games, the Giants are the Orioles

Justin Mason: Orioles

Jesse Winker Tailor Soldier Spy: End game $2 MI pick:  Espinal or A.Frazier (5 x 5 OBP)

Justin Mason: Neither? I guess Fraizer

Ramp: How are you handling Tatis right now? He’s a top 5 talent if he returns to form and if he retains SS eligibility, but that’s a lot of ifs.

Justin Mason: I am not taking him in the first round. I have been tempted in the second round

Justin Mason: I haven’t pulled the trigger yet though

Anonymous: Jordan Walker top 12 (startable) at 3B when he comes up? Pairing him with Rendon in drafts, hoping Walker gets the call by the time Rendon gets injured for the year

Justin Mason: Yes. My bold prediction yesterday is that he is a top 7 3B this year

Craig: Interest in Bryce Elder or Ian Anderson in 12 team, NL-only? Kolby Allard?

Justin Mason: Anderson

Craig: Interest in either Sean Manaea or Ross Stripling for the upcoming season? If so, why?

Justin Mason: Until yesterday, I was only interested in Stripling, but with Manaea throwing 95 yesterday, I am pretty intrigued there now.

Jesus was a Carpenter: It’s a 2fer!  Does Kerry Carpenter get enough playing time to be fantasy worthy?  Did Schmidt just take the early lead on the 5th starter spot?

Justin Mason: I think Carpenter is interesting in a really deep format as long as he isn’t platooning.

Justin Mason: I am going to try and get as many questions in as possible in the last five minutes!

Ramp: Verlander for Kirby/Lazardo in a 12 team 5×5. Which side would you want?

Justin Mason: Verlander

Anonymous: Has any fantasy sport ever had a situation where an entire team has zero fantasy-relevant players? (Rockies & A’s)

Justin Mason: There is always deep enough leagues where everyone is viable.

Mr. Redlegs: How would you rank Senga vs. a top prospect like Druw Jones or Pfaadt in a dynasty draft?

Justin Mason: I will take Druw every time. It is not close for me. His upside is amazing.

BR: Any A’s you think will surprise?

Justin Mason: Probably not lol

Guest: Torn between two keepers…Julio Urias ($35) v. Max Fried ($32). We have $256 to spend on 23 players so keeping both would really limit my options elsewhere in my deep NL-only league.

Justin Mason: I prefer Urias

Damian: Would you pick chourio last in a bestball just on the off chance he comes up?

Justin Mason: I doubt he comes up

Ryan: Corbin Burnes Trade to the Orioles make sense if the brewers are out of it? They have the trade capital and a clear payroll to sign him to an extension.

Justin Mason: I would love that for Baltimore! I just don’t see the Brewers doing it unless they fall out of the race.

Anonymous: what are the easiest stats to find mid-season?

Justin Mason: K’s

Mark: 5×5 12 team head to head auction league where we can keep 4 players for up to 3 years max + $5 per year. Which 4 should I keep? Vinnie Pasquantino $6, Vaughn Grissom $6, Gunnar Henderson $6, Jordan Walker $6, Elly De La Cruz $6, Kyle Wright $6? thanks!

Justin Mason: Vinnie P, Walker, Henderson, De La Cruz

Prospecting: In a 12 team dynasty 5×5 roto, should be competitive, lots of rotation risk, Kershaw, Glasgow, Severino. We can keep 24 players, debating holding Mackenzie Gore or Kyle Harrison.

Justin Mason: Gore

ProspectPr0n: I’m sad there’s no “Prospect Graduates” article today as planned. Any idea what happened to it?

Justin Mason: No idea. Who was the previous writer? I can ask around

Bobby B: Keep forever QS league, who is your last keeper between: Bello, Mahle, or Whitlock

Justin Mason: Whitlock

KevinT: Should we be moving left handed starters up a round or 2 in our evaluations as they are less likely to be affected by the new rules? Whips could rise across the board for right handed pitchers more than lefties. Steals too

Justin Mason: I wouldn’t do it too much. We have no idea how much and who this will really affect. Pitchers and teams will adapt to the new rules

Ryan: Which is the first team that loses a game on a pitch clock violation and has a fan base that will talk about it for years? My money is on the Dodgers or Red Sox

Justin Mason: I hope it is the Dodgers lol

Ben: Who are some guys who make a notable value jump in an OBP league vs traditional roto 5×5? Particularly at shallow positions like 2B and OF.

Justin Mason: Anyone that walks 10% or more

KevinT: Your take on Max Muncy last year I thought was brilliant. Even if I am wrong, and he’s good and healthy (he wasnt), hes not a guy who will kill me to be against. Do you have that same opinion on Kris Bryant this year? Or Tim Anderson?

Justin Mason: I think both are similar but I am more inclined to draft Anderson because of the five category production.

RAGBRAI: Who ends up with more saves in LA, Hudson or Phillips?

Justin Mason: Hudson

KevinT: Wade Miley will be this years Martin Perez, mark it down. Soft tossing lefty who eats innings and is underrated from a ratios stand point. I think I am resetting the min every DC i do. But can I squeeze him into an OC draft is the question?

Justin Mason: Nah, off the waiver wire for good matchups

KevinT: 7 relievers??? And was 14 SPs, 4 catchers. So half of your roster is in pitching and catchers?

Justin Mason: Pretty much

IWantToBelieve: Anything about Mitch Keller’s solid first spring start make you more of a believe that he finally figured things out last season?

Justin Mason: Absolutely not

Ryan: I think I’m in the minority on 1B. I don’t like the Hoskins/Vinnie P/Nate Lowe/Abreu tier and I don’t want to pay up on the first 3 rounds either lol

Justin Mason: You can wait on 1B pretty easily. I definitely have in some drafts.

KevinT: @jack- The answer is always Jazz Chisholm

Justin Mason: Stop it. Get help

Justin Mason: Upside is there though lol

William: Can you shed some light on Bradish? His stats weren’t so hot, but hard to ignore a few of his brilliant starts.

Justin Mason: Pitch mix change in the second half was huge for him. Park shields him

Jesse Winker Tailor Soldier Spy: Which A’s closer candidate do you pick first?

Justin Mason: Jimenez

Guest: Who does worse analysis Sporer or Pollack?

Justin Mason: They are both equally amazing

Dan: What player have you been sniped on most often this year?

Justin Mason: Suzuki

Justin Mason: Got to run!  please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!