Starting Pitcher Pitch Mix Change in June and July: More Fastballs Part 2

We covered several starting pitchers that have been throwing more fastballs (sinkers and four-seamers) in June and July. Pitch mix changes intrigue me because they can be a concerted effort to make changes or a noisy small sample. Sometimes pitchers command a pitch better, or it’s just the normal fluctuation of pitches across their arsenal, with some thrown more often than others. Let’s examine four more starting pitchers who have been throwing more fastballs in June and July.

Sandy Alcantara, SP, Marlins

In June and especially July, Alcantara has been relying more on his sinker and four-seamer. Specifically, Alcantara was throwing his sinker 28.1% of the time in July and 29.1% of the time in June. He upped his four-seamer usage from 16.8% in June to 21.3% in July. That coincided with slightly fewer changeups and a gradual increase in his sweeper usage. 

If you haven’t noticed, Alcantara has been pitching well since June 1, with a 2.99 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and a 14.9% K-BB%, with a 3.57 xERA being the most optimistic ERA estimator. That suggests Alcantara can suppress hard contact, though the strikeout skills might be lacking. It might make sense for Alcantara to rely more on both fastballs because he commands the four-seamer (102 Location+) and sinker (108 Location+) well. 

What’s wild is that Alcantara is throwing his sinker at the lowest rate against right-handed hitters (29.6%) since 2019 (31.7%). The sinker generates weak contact against right-handed hitters (.328 wOBA, .300 xwOBA) and lefties (.262 wOBA, .288 xwOBA). Interestingly, Alcantara’s sinker used to be a groundball machine (career 62.3% GB%), but it’s been at 54.7% in 2026 and 54.8% in 2025. 

Alcantara tends to locate his sinker low and outside to left-handed hitters while throwing them low and inside to righties. That aligns with Alcantara’s lower arm angle that tends to generate plenty of arm-side movement. Against lefties, there’s probably value in Alcantara’s changeup and sinker having similar induced-movement profiles, leading hitters to guess on those hard changeups and sinkers. That’s evident in Alcantara’s changeup allowing a .269 wOBA (.288 xwOBA) and the sinker giving up a .262 wOBA (.288 xwOBA) against left-handed hitters.

The peak stuff might not be there for Alcantara, but he continues to thrive on his above-average command. If you’re worried about pitchers with workload concerns, Alcantara might be a sneaky workhorse to target in a trade toward the deadline. 

Sonny Gray, SP, Red Sox

In June and July, Gray has been throwing more sinkers. He is throwing sinkers 20.9% of the time in June and 27.6% in July compared to his season-long usage (20.8%). Specifically in July, Gray is throwing fewer sweepers (19.3%) and four-seamers (13%) in favor of more sinkers. We’ve seen Gray tweak his pitch mix throughout his career, though he throws five pitches over 15% of the time, showing depth in his arsenal.

That’s helpful because Gray’s sinker has been his best pitch (.242 wOBA, .258 xwOBA), a quality offering against righties (.278 wOBA, .260 xwOBA) and lefties (.203 wOBA, .256 xwOBA). Gray’s sinker has consistently graded as an above-average pitch in Stuff+ (104), though the command has faded this season (93 Location+). 

Speaking of pitch mix changes, Gray has been throwing more cutters to left-handed hitters,  16.3% of the time this season, up from 5.7% in 2025 and 8.8% in 2024. That coincided with fewer changeups (8.2%), curveballs (22.7%), and four-seamers (22.9%). For context, Gray’s usage of four-seamers and changeups dropped by five percentage points with a three-point dip in curveballs. 

Interestingly, Gray’s cutter has been hit hard by lefties (.455 wOBA, .417 xwOBA) this season. The cutter is dropping 2-3 inches fewer this season compared to recent years. It might make sense to back off the cutter usage, though the Red Sox love throwing them. Red Sox pitchers throw cutters at the second-highest rate this season behind the Brewers. 

Gray has been commanding the cutter well with a 107 Location+, leading his arsenal from a command standpoint. He locates the cutter low and inside to lefties, which aligns with opposing hitters doing damage. One change might be to throw cutters higher in the zone, though the Location+ grades may suffer. Gray pounds the zone with the cutter, given a 62.8% zone rate, so that might be playing into the command grade. 

Gray continues to outpitch his ERA estimators with an xERA (3.79) and SIERA (3.91), both of which are over one run higher than his actual ERA. After a 21% K-BB% or higher in two previous seasons in St. Louis, Gray’s K-BB% is down to 14.8%. There’s value in Gray’s arsenal depth, as he leans into his sinker usage in June and July to find success. 

With so many struggling starting pitchers hurting ratios, injuries, and other factors, it’s hard to sell high on Gray when there’s a track record of success. Good pitchers can outpitch their peripherals. 

Nick Lodolo, SP, Reds

After Lodolo posted career-best numbers last season, we wanted to invest in him this year. Though Lodolo has been on the injured list since early July, he was throwing more four-seamers in two July outings. Lodolo’s four-seam usage skyrocketed to 40.6% in July, up from 22.1% in June and 26.3% in May. For context, Lodolo typically threw his four-seamer 27-28% of the time in recent seasons.

He specifically was throwing more four-seamers to right-handed hitters in July (39.2%), up from 23.8% (June) and 29.7% (May). That’s notable because Lodolo’s four-seamer grades well in the Stuff+ models, given a 105 Stuff+ this season, similar to his career average (106 Stuff+). With Lodolo throwing from a low arm angle (15 degrees), his four-seamer generates nearly 17 inches of arm-side fade (16.9 inches). Lodolo’s four-seamer leads all four-seamers with 16.9 inches of arm-side movement, tying him with reliever Tim Hill’s four-seam fastball.

There’s a chance that Lodolo’s sinker, four-seamer, and changeup tunnel well, with all having plenty of arm-side fade and similar induced movement profiles. We highlight that because Lodolo’s sinker has typically been hit hard, especially to right-handed hitters. That’s been true this season, with the four-seamer allowing a .517 wOBA (.564 xwOBA) against right-handed hitters, up from a .386 wOBA (.366 xwOBA) last year. 

Though the command numbers don’t agree, we like Lodolo’s four-seam locations (97 Location+) against right-handed hitters. He tends to locate his four-seamer higher in the zone, with most of the damage coming when it isn’t peppered across the top edge of the zone. This is a situation where we’re intrigued by the small sample of Lodolo throwing more four-seamers to right-handed hitters in July. 

Lodolo’s 8.2% K-BB% means none of his ERA estimators show optimism. Assuming health, Lodolo’s skills should regress closer to his career norms. He might be one of the better starting pitchers to stash, with the potential to return in mid-August. If you’re a sucker for pain like me, we’ll keep believing in Lodolo. 

Brandon Pfaadt, SP, Diamondbacks

The June spike in four-seam usage for Pfaadt might be causing him to pop up on the leaderboard of pitchers throwing more fastballs in June and July. Pfaadt was pumping four-seamers 38.8% of the time in June compared to 24.7% (May) and 25% (July). The June pitch mix might be the outlier, given the monthly pitch usage.

Interestingly, Pfaadt’s four-seamers have been performing better in June (.339 wOBA, .214 xwOBA) and July (.213 wOBA, .283 xwOBA) compared to the season-long average (.324 wOBA, .319 xwOBA). That’s notable because Pfaadt commands his four-seamer well, with a 106 Location+, leading his arsenal this season. 

Since Pfaadt’s four-seam doesn’t stand out from a stuff (97 Stuff+) and movement perspective, he might be fortunate since he often throws his four-seamer somewhat in the heart of the zone. The four-seamer is a pitch-to-contact offering, allowing a 90.1% contact rate this season while throwing it in the zone 59% of the time. For context, Pfaadt’s four-seamer allowed an 83.1% contact rate throughout his career.

The two other pitch mix changes in Pfaadt’s profile involve throwing more cutters (11%) to right-handed hitters and more curveballs to lefties this season. He has been tossing more cutters, up from 6.4% last season when he introduced the cutter. Interestingly, Pfaadt’s cutter has been succeeding against righties, allowing a .137 wOBA, though the .261 xwOBA suggests regression. The cutter seems to operate like a harder gyro-like slider, giving him something between his four-seamer and sweeping slider. 

He tends to locate the cutter low and toward his glove side to left- and right-handed hitters. The stuff models dislike the cutter, with an 88 Stuff+. However, Pfaadt had a 113 Location+ in 2025, dipping to 97 this season. It’s a small sample of the new cutter, but the heatmaps show he can command it consistently.

Pfaadt has been pumping curveballs 23.6% of the time to left-handed hitters, which would be a career high. That’s up from 13.9% (2025) and 10.1% (2024). The curveball has been better at allowing weak contact (.328 wOBA, .260 xwOBA) this season compared to 2025 (.434 wOBA, .342 xwOBA). Pfaadt’s curveball has been dropping nearly two inches more while losing an inch of glove-side sweep compared to last season. 

The additional downward movement makes the curveball have an above-average vertical movement profile. He has been burying the curveball low and below the zone to lefties, similar to last year. Pfaadt’s curveball has a 102 Location+ this season, up from a 99 Location+ throughout his career. Most of Pfaadt’s pitches move side to side, so the curveball seems to cross a different plane, making it an interesting option against left-handed hitters. 

I enjoy researching the inputs and pieces of a starting pitcher’s arsenal. Pfaadt’s 9.1% K-BB% would be a career low. His 4.02 xERA aligns with his actual results, which is the most optimistic ERA estimator, suggesting he tends to generate weak contact. Anytime a starting pitcher has a single-digit K-BB%, it’s typically a worrisome sign, though Pfaadt’s 15.5% K-BB% might keep us optimistic.

Pfaadt has been making significant adjustments to his pitch mix in recent months and throughout the season, making him a more intriguing streaming pitcher than anticipated.