Starting Pitcher Arm Angle Changes Part 2

We previously covered several starting pitchers who changed their arm angle in June and July. Let’s follow that up with a few other starting pitchers who have been throwing from different arm angles this season. Arm angles can impact pitch movement profiles, depending on the pitch type.

Besides one near-elite starting pitcher, we’ll examine a few players who have been performing well while showing different arm angles. How have those arm angles impacted pitch movement and usage? Why does it matter?

Bryce Elder, SP, Braves

Elder has been throwing from a lower arm angle this season (48 degrees, down from 52 degrees). That led to Elder’s slider dropping four inches more this season. His changeup also added over one inch of downward movement. Interestingly, Elder’s slider, which averaged 100 stuff+ through his career, now has just an 88 Stuff+, though we might think that additional downward movement leads to better stuff.

Elder relies on his command overall with a 104 Location+. The slider is one of Elder’s four pitches with a Location+ at 101 or higher. He lowered the slider usage against right-handed hitters by 10 points to 27.1%. Even with the increased movement, opposing right-handed hitters hit the slider hard, with a .380 wOBA (.340 xwOBA), similar to 2025 (.359 wOBA, .344 xwOBA). 

Elder is also throwing fewer sliders to left-handed hitters (24.4%), down eight points from 2025. The slider allows a .312 wOBA (.293 xwOBA) against left-handed hitters. He consistently locates the slider low in the zone against both sides of the plate. Typically, sliders generate more whiffs when they add downward movement. However, Elder’s slider elicits a 14.9% swinging-strike rate, two points below his career norm, despite dropping the most it has since 2022.

After throwing one cutter in 2024, Elder has been tossing them 19.9% of the time to left-handed hitters. He tends to locate the cutter high and inside toward lefties, as an attempt to generate weak contact. As a pitch that relies on command, Elder seems to locate the cutter well with a 106 Location+. The cutter performs decently, allowing a .314 wOBA (.351 xwOBA) against left-handed hitters. 

Besides throwing fewer sliders, Elder is tossing more cutters and fewer sinkers. Elder’s sinker was hit hard by lefties last season (.359 wOBA, .363 xwOBA), so it is no surprise he decreased the usage vs. lefties from 30.2% last year to 14.2% this year. However, the outcomes have been better (.208 wOBA, .244 xwOBA) with the lowered usage this season. That’s a positive outcome in a small sample. He leans on sinkers against righties the most often (52.9%). Elder commands his sinker the best, leading to a 110 Location+ this season.

Command-focused pitchers can outperform their underlying metrics and ERA estimators. That’s what Elder is doing this season, with his best performance since 2023. Elder’s 4.00 xERA is the most optimistic ERA estimator, suggesting he can generate weak contact. Meanwhile, Elder’s 4.12 xFIP is the second-best estimator, though his 4.34 SIERA will be unkind with a 12.1% K-BB%. 

Elder’s deep arsenal and strong command help him outperform his ERA estimators. There will be regression, but he can be a steady option in deeper leagues. 

Dustin May, SP, Brewers

Throughout May’s career, his arm angle has fluctuated. May is throwing from a 34-degree arm angle this season, up from 21 degrees (2025) and 30 degrees (2024). With May throwing from a higher arm angle, his changeup, sinker, and cutter have been losing 2-3 inches of downward movement this season. Meanwhile, May’s four-seamer added two inches of induced vertical break. 

Like May’s arm angle, his pitch-level stuff and command grades have fluctuated throughout his career. That makes sense since May’s arm angle changes, leading to different pitch shapes, movement profiles, and locations. The sinker leads May’s arsenal from a Stuff+ standpoint (114 Stuff+), though the cutter (89 Stuff+) and changeup (85 Stuff+) grade poorly with those movement changes. However, May commands the cutter (110 Location+) and changeup (106 Location+) well.

Let’s start with May’s cutter and changeup, because he throws them often against left-handed hitters. May has been locating his cutter higher in the zone against lefties this season, given the heatmaps. Interestingly, the cutter’s average vertical and horizontal locations have been similar over the past two seasons. However, May’s higher arm angle and different vertical movement profile seem to be impacting the locations. 

With May commanding his cutter well and throwing them more often against lefties, the results have been the best since the tiny 2023 sample. May’s cutter allows a .329 wOBA (.303 xwOBA) this season after a .540 wOBA (.427 xwOBA) against left-handed hitters in 2025. May throwing his cutters higher and inside to lefties could be helping generate weak contact.

The stuff models don’t like May’s changeup (85 Stuff+), possibly because it runs 16 inches toward his arm-side, generating more side-to-side movement unlike other changeups. May’s changeup has a similar induced movement profile to his sinker, but neither has been inducing weak contact with that horizontal movement. He throws his changeup 11.2% of the time to lefties, allowing a .381 wOBA (.365 xwOBA) this season. It’s hard to compare his changeup to previous seasons because he only threw 75 of them against left-handed hitters from 2022-2025.

May’s 15.5% K-BB% provides some optimism for better outcomes, as the ERA estimators indicate. The SIERA (3.95), xERA (3.91), and xFIP (3.88) all expect May to have an ERA under 4.00. Based on May’s arm angle and other changes to his arsenal, he seems like a pitcher who tends to tweak different aspects. That could be related to being on three teams over the past two seasons and dealing with injuries throughout his career. 

May typically relied on his stuff, but we’ve seen that he can command his pitches better this season. Hopefully, that’s a sign of more positive outcomes coming soon.

[I wrote this up about May before he was dealt to Milwaukee. The Brewers are an organization to trust from a pitching development standpoint, so don’t be surprised if May turns into something better and different than what we have seen before. Stock up on May. ]

Nick Martinez, SP, Rays

Martinez’s arm angle is three degrees lower this season compared to last year. That has coincided with Martinez’s changeup adding 1-2 inches of downward movement. Meanwhile, Martinez’s slider lost 1-2 inches of downward movement. The sinker gained two inches of arm-side fade while his changeup added one inch of arm-side movement. 

Speaking of Martinez’s sinker, he has ramped up his usage against right-handed (38.3%) and left-handed hitters (26.7%). He has been throwing the sinker 10% more often against righties and a 20% more against left-handed hitters. The stuff+ on Martinez’s sinker went from below-average in the previous two seasons with the Reds to slightly above-average (102 Stuff+). 

Martinez is a command-first pitcher and the sinker’s 114 Location+ is leading the way for his arsenal. Martinez pumps the sinker in the zone 64.4% of the time, up 12 points from his career average. That’s probably boosting Martinez’s sinker Location+, given he often throws it for strikes (73.7%). Martinez’s sinker has generated strong results against righties (.303 wOBA) though the .384 xwOBA might be cause for concern. Against lefties, the results aren’t as good (.340 wOBA) but the contact isn’t as strong (.332 xwOBA). 

The other notable adjustment for Martinez is the changeup usage against righties. He is throwing his changeup 23% of the time to right-handed hitters, leading to quality outcomes (.068 wOBA, .176 xwOBA). With the Reds, Martinez backed off his changeup usage against righties in 2025 (14.4%) and 2024 (19.5%). 

Martinez has been throwing his changeup lower and below the zone against right-handed hitters compared to last season. He was throwing his changeup in the zone 51.8% of the time to righties in 2025, dropping to 30.5%. Unsurprisingly, Martinez’s changeup is causing opposing right-handed hitters to chase 39.3% of the time, up from 27.2% (2025). The changeup continues to lead his arsenal in Stuff+ (110), though it’s down from his career average (119). Regardless, Martinez’s changeup has been a quality pitch to both sides of the plate.

Admittedly, Martinez is a pitcher I’ve overlooked this season, with an ERA under 3.00 and 10 wins. He has been mixing his pitches well with the Rays, and has benefitted from movement and location changes. He boasts strong control (32.2% ball rate) and above-average command (106 Location+), yet he toes a fine line with a 9.9% K-BB% and 4.60 xERA. Martinez has been fortunate given a career-low .259 BABIP and career-best 85.6% strand rate. 

With most fantasy baseball trade deadlines approaching or past, many fantasy managers would love to have Martinez’s control- and command-based ratios, even if it’s luck. 

Drew Rasmussen, SP, Rays

Interestingly, Rasmussen was one of the starting pitchers using a higher arm angle in June and July. Without overanalyzing Rasmussen, who has been hashtag near-elite, let’s touch on some changes. Rasmussen’s sinker was moving two inches more toward his arm side, with the changeup moving over three inches more horizontally. 

After throwing 28 changeups last season, Rasmussen has been tossing them the third-most against left-handed hitters (16.1%). The changeup has been one of his best pitches against lefties, allowing a .145 wOBA (.199 xwOBA) and a 17.6% swinging-strike rate. Rasmussen’s changeup has been grading well in Stuff+ (110) while he commands it well (103 Location+). 

He is locating his changeup low and below the zone (32.3% zone rate), leading opposing hitters to chase it 35.8% of the time. That seems like an optimal approach: throw one of his better pitches more often while locating it well for better results. 

We highlighted the sinker earlier with the additional arm-side movement. Rasmussen is locating his sinker better with a 111 Location+ this season after being below 100 in the previous two seasons. Interestingly, the sinker heatmaps look relatively the same over the past two seasons. However, the sinker’s additional horizontal movement might be helpful, as he tends to throw it low and inside to left- and right-handed hitters. For context, Rasmussen’s sinker has been a quality offering against righties (.274 wOBA, .283 xwOBA) and scary good against lefties (.126 wOBA, .202 xwOBA) this season. 

Rasmussen rocks a 22.1% K-BB% (No. 9), a 109 Stuff+ (No. 8), and a 109 Location+ (No. 5). Most projection systems have Rasmussen pushing for 175 innings of quality ratios on a winning team. He ranks inside the top 10 on the FanGraphs Player Rater, as one of five pitchers with an ADP past pick 100. This is another reminder that the Rays can help a pitcher evolve and level up.