Starting Pitcher Swap Meet

With the end of the season in sight, it’s time to kick season-long strategies out of the driver’s seat. Slow and steady may win the race if you’re a tortoise, but in fantasy baseball, it’s either sprint or switch over to football. And who even likes football?

When I say sprint, I mean sprint while throwing any and all things that could weigh you down over your shoulder. Especially in 12-teamers and shallow leagues, this needs to be the mindset. Small sample size holding you back? There’s only a small sample size left! Things are going to be random. It’s getting wiggy. 

Hitters have so many days to frustrate you. Owning Gunnar Henderson this season has been like wading into a pool with a freshly made pizza. Like sure, there’s moments you may enjoy, like the pepperoni-and-pineapple sweet 3-5 game with a bomb. But then your hands get wet, you can barely stand, let alone eat your pizza, and Gunnar is in the midst of a 3-43 stretch. Without a steal. 

You get the picture. 

But today, I’m going to focus on starting pitchers. Relievers are more volatile, and if you’re chasing saves in Roto, best of luck and look to Hogan Harris, I guess? But starting pitchers are truly the kings of the small sample size, especially when the calendar inevitably flips to August. 

If you are behind in hitting counting stats or ratios, the end of the year feels miserable. But at five or so innings a pop, burning and churning through pitchers at the end of the year (add/drop format notwithstanding) can be incredibly viable. 

In this article, I’ll look at a handful of starting pitchers you can safely swap out, especially in shallow leagues, and some hot hand plays you can make with that sweet new roster spot. 

Now, there are a few landmines you probably are all too familiar with in starting pitcher land as we approach the end of the season. Injuries are unavoidable. Innings limits are somewhat more easy to anticipate. So the easiest first pass is to get at poor performance. If you need ratios, cut out the volume plays that now are killers! And if you need counting stats, scoop them up!

Since volume is the easiest to work around, I’ll focus here on ratios, or really even on the all-around approach. If your pitching really does need a jolt. 

At various times this season, this group may absolutely have been worth rostering. But at this point, they’re worth cutting, especially if you need help in the ratios. 

Michael McGreevy is at best a quality start volume play. And with 13 quality starts and a 3.57 ERA across 116 innings this season, he’s been that. But if you need ratio help now, with the rabbit ball and WHIP danger, McGreevy just is not your best bet. 

In ten starts since June 1, he’s allowed seven homers, which feels incredibly lucky, with a 4.44 xFIP. Even considering his thusly demonstrated ability to beat his peripherals, his WHIP has steadily increased over the summer, with the biggest blow coming in a seven run slamming by the Cubs on Tuesday. 

MacKenzie Gore is perhaps more a trade chip than flat out drop, especially after twirling seven innings with nine punchouts on Wednesday. But even still, this was Gore’s first quality start of July, and he’s been classically mercurial again this season. 

Though his xERA, FIP, and xFIP are all below 4.00 on the year, he was rocking an ERA above 4.80 heading into Wednesday’s outing. Volume plays should certainly not cut him considering the strikeout output. But with a BB/9 over 3 on the season and Zone% hovering around 40% for July, he clearly is not going to be helping dip your WHIP.

Mitch Keller is an awful lot like Gore in that he does this every year. Bankably all over the map from game to game, sort of like Jose Berrios back in his hey day. Except this has been Keller’s worst season since 2021. He’s striking out hitters less and walking them more, with a K/9 below 7 and a BB/9 above 3. His fastball velo is down and the peripherals all back up the decline. 

Maybe you can deal him, especially after he’s allowed just two runs in his last two starts. But really, chasing better ratios is the only way to dig yourself out of the hole. And Keller is unlikely to volume his way to a WHIP below 1.30 this summer. 

Davis Martin was a fantasy darling through May. Like Aragorn, or perhaps Samwise Gamgee. Consistently pumping out quality starts, low WHIPs, and even strikeouts. From April 23 to May 22, Martin had a six start stretch with seven or more punchouts in each game. Since then, he hasn’t had a single start with more than six strikeouts, reaching that while allowing five earned runs against the Belli and Judgeless Yankees.

In the ten starts since that magical run, Martin has a K-BB of 5.9% and a 1.58 WHIP with a strand rate below 70%. While he has kept the ball in the yard, that is unlikely to hold. And if it doesn’t your ERA and WHIP could both come crashing down. Let go of that glittery past and find something solid to hold onto. Let go of your precious.

Noah Cameron is somehow still rostered in 20% of Yahoo leagues. And 68% rostered in CBS. Huh? There can’t be that many draft and hold leagues on those platforms. If you need help in the ratios, don’t be fooled by his sub-3 ERA last season. This is a 4+ ERA arm. With a cute, bespectacled face sure. But this is an ERA/WHIP bomb.

At his best, the 27-year-old Cameron can glide around trouble, pitching better than his 4+ ERA indicators suggested last season and at times this season. But this isn’t the time to hope for dancing around danger, especially considering Cameron’s 1.71 WHIP and 41% Zone% since July 1. This is not going to be an Andrew Abbott ratio season for Cameron. This is going to be like, Chris Capuano once he didn’t have any bullets left in the chamber. 

Griffin Jax is the most established of this group this season, which would not have been on bingo card back in April. But the converted reliever has come into his own. Since June 7, Jax has made it through five innings or more in ten consecutive starts, with a K/9 above 10 and 1.08 WHIP, holding opposing hitters to a .221 AVG. The Rays will need him for the stretch run and he’s shown no signs of slowing down. Add him in shallow leagues and trade for him elsewhere. 

Hayden Wesneski tossed 5.2 innings against the lowly Angels on Wednesday night, his first start back in the majors since Tommy John surgery last year. As noted by Vlad Sedler prior to the start, the former Cubs pitcher had got up to 80 pitches rehabbing at AAA and had a respectable 21:4 K:BB and a 2.25 ERA in 20 innings across five rehab starts. While ATC projections don’t trust him to be a sub-4 ERA pitcher, he gets to face a scuffling Toronto lineup before taking on the even lowlier Giants in San Francisco for his next two starts.

AJ Smith-Shawver has the highest strikeout upside of this group after Jax. In his abbreviated return to the majors on Wednesday, the 24-year-old covered 4.1 innings with four punchouts, allowing two runs. With a sub-2 ERA while rehabbing at AAA, Smith-Shawver was sent down following Wednesday’s outing but figures to come back to the bigs for another turn next week. 

Ben Brown needs to come back from injury to be worth swapping out for one of the names from earlier, but reports indicate he is working back to getting into some bullpen sessions. And the Cubs certainly need him. If Brown can return and get in a handful of starts during the fantasy playoffs, that’d be especially valuable in head-to-head leagues, as he had a 1.85 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 68 innings this season while moving from the pen into the rotation. He will certainly be an interesting arm heading into drafts next year.

Clay Holmes may come off of the IL and immediately join a contender’s rotation. With a 2.39 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 52.2 innings this season, he’s certainly earned it. Holmes reached 59 pitches in a rehab outing on Tuesday and the Mets are incentivized to bring him back quickly, if only to deal him. Coming off a leg injury, Holmes is one of the arms in this group that is most likely to add a few quality starts between now and October. If a team unloaded him with his injury, give him a home before he’s sent packing at the Deadline.