2020 Pod vs Steamer — ERA Downside, A Review
February 3, 2021
Yesterday, I reviewed my starting pitcher ERA upside guys, comparing my Pod Projections with Steamer. Today, I’ll review the downside guys.
Archive for Starting Pitchers
Justin Mason’s Top 150 Starting Pitchers: 2/3/2021
by Justin Mason
February 3, 2021
Drafts are in full swing and now I am 10 drafts into the season, here are my current ranks for starting pitchers for 2021. I will post updates every 2-4 weeks as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball.
The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 889 – SP Differences in the Top 100
by Paul Sporer
February 2, 2021
2/2/21
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.
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- @sporer – Host
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PAUL V. JUSTIN SPS
- Mike Minor (2:30)
- Michael Kopech (7:15)
- Eduardo Rodriguez (10:05)
- David Price (12:33)
- Lance McCullers Jr. (15:40)
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2021 Starting Pitcher Ranks – January
by Paul Sporer
February 2, 2021
It’s been just over four months since my last SP update so this was overdue. I’ll have an article and a podcast discussing these in more detail. For this piece, I’ll just have the rankings and then respond to your comments. Blue bar starts a new tier. Let me know what you think!
The Impact of Games Started vs. Innings Pitched Caps in Ottoneu H2H
The standard pitching metric of production in Ottoneu points leagues is points per inning pitched. With a 1500 IP cap, innings are currency and you need to maximize the return for every inning pitched. But in head-to-head leagues, innings are no longer the scarce resource managers have to manage. Instead, each team can throw an unlimited number of innings, but there’s a limit on games started per week. For Ottoneu head-to-head, or any other league with a games-started cap for pitchers, the pitching metric that matters for SP is not points per inning pitched, but points per game started. And that can swing values. The question is, how much does it matter?
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2020 Pod vs Steamer — ERA Upside, A Review
February 2, 2021
We have completed our reviews of Pod Projections versus Steamer on the hitting side, so now let’s move on over to pitching. I only published two pieces, comparing our ERA projections. Today, I’ll recap the names included on my ERA upside list. Given that even a full season ERA reflects a good deal of good and/or bad fortune, only 60 games and around 12 starts means ERAs landed all over the place, sometimes far off from consensus forecasts. So it’ll be fun to see where we projected these pitchers and where their ERAs actually settled.
Pitchers To Watch In Spring Training
February 1, 2021
Spring training can be helpful in determining a pitcher’s future performance. While most of it should be taken with a grain of salt, sometimes it can be a calling card for things to come. Some major components to look out for involve velocity, command, and pitch mix.
Starting Pitcher ADP Market Report: 1/27/2021
by Justin Mason
January 29, 2021
With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.
Beat the Shift Podcast – Starting Pitcher Episode (Part I) w/ Paul Sporer
by Ariel Cohen
January 29, 2021
The Starting Pitcher Episode (Part I) of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Paul Sporer
Strategy Section
- How many pitchers will throw 200 innings in 2021?
- Pitcher ramp up from the 2020 short season.
- Pitchers returning from injury (Chris Sale / Noah Syndergaard / Luis Severino)
- How do you project innings for 2021?
- How do you assess their fantasy value?
- What leagues are these players more (or less) valuable?
- Super Elite Pitchers (Jacob deGrom / Gerrit Cole / Shane Bieber)
- How far should the trio be pushed up in drafts?
- Which hitters should be drafted ahead of the super elite starters?
- Does the format make a difference?
- Pitching Strategy in 2021 – Snake Drafts vs. Auctions
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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 887 – SP Debates ft. Nick Pollack
by Paul Sporer
January 28, 2021
1/28/21
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.
Follow us on Twitter
- @sporer – Host
- @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer
- @PitcherList – Nick Pollack
STARTING PITCHER DEBATES
- Better 2021 buy: Sonny Gray or Max Fried? (2:00)
- Health risk investment: Stephen Strasburg v. Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진? (11:24)
- 2020 Riser to Buy (if any): Dinelson Lamet v. Framber Valdez? (23:54)
- Any breakout potential here: José Berríos, Kyle Hendricks, Zack Wheeler? (35:02)
- Buying the Hype: Ian Anderson v. Jesús Luzardo? (53:00)
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