2020 Pod vs Steamer — ERA Downside, A Review

Yesterday, I reviewed my starting pitcher ERA upside guys, comparing my Pod Projections with Steamer. Today, I’ll review the downside guys.

It’s another 3-2 victory in favor of Pod! This was perhaps an even more meaningless win than the ERA upside battle, in which I also “won” 3-2. That’s because three of these five lads pitched fewer than 20 innings!

Max Fried was a nice little sleeper heading into the season, with strikeout potential, decent enough control, and a strong ground ball rate. So he was certainly on the radar of mixed leaguers. However, he beat all projections thanks to a woman named Lady Luck. His BABIP plummeted from heavily inflated marks in previous seasons to just .268, he allowed a mid-single digit HR/FB rate, and his LOB% surged above 80%. He hit the luck trifecta and outperformed his SIERA by more than two full runs. I like his overall skill package, but man he’s going to be overvalued in 2021 if he doesn’t dramatically improve his underlying peripherals.

Nick Pivetta pitched all of 5.2 innings for the Phillies before the team traded him to the Red Sox, where he threw a whopping 10 innings. The long-time sleeper continued to sleep, and still hasn’t gotten his BABIP below .300. As soon as everyone gives up on him, he’s going to break out. You know that’s what’s going to happen.

Kwang Hyun Kim made his MLB debut after spending 12 seasons in the KBO. His role was initially up in the air, but he ended up spending the majority of the time in the Cardinals’ starting rotation. Like Fried, Kim used some magic to post his sparkling ERA. His strikeout was disappointing at just 15.6%, but his walk rate and ground ball rate were both solid. Overall, his skills package was underwhelming and resulted in an ugly 5.00 SIERA. However, he posted a tiny .217 BABIP, which led to a sky-high 86.6% LOB%. Neither of those marks should occur again. His pitch mix wasn’t very good at inducing whiffs, so it’s hard to envision a whole lot of strikeout rate upside. I’m guessing he’ll improve a bit, but nowhere near enough to be worth a mixed league roster spot.

Kendall Graveman was limited to just 18.2 innings and spent a majority of them in the bullpen due to injury. This came after missing all of 2019 due to Tommy John surgery. His strikeout rate actually jumped for the third straight season, but his walk rate also rose, while his ground ball rate sunk below 50% for the first time. Amazingly, despite posting better than league average BABIP and HR/FB marks, he still underperformed his SIERA thanks to a ridiculously low 49.5%. The encouraging thing is his velocity was the highest of his career, but some of that was likely due to spending time in the bullpen. That said, it’s a good sign after the TJ surgery. It would be nice if he was able to turn that increased velocity into whiffs, but he still has a long way to go in getting that strikeout rate up to a fantasy-relevant level.

Wade Miley only pitched 14.1 innings thanks to a shoulder injury so you can pretty much throw out his season. That said, he was coming off two straight years of significant SIERA outperformance, after underperforming for four straight seasons. He’s posted a strikeout rate above 20% once in his entire career. Regardless of his health, he should remain far away from your 2021 fantasy team.