2021 Starting Pitcher Ranks – January
It’s been just over four months since my last SP update so this was overdue. I’ll have an article and a podcast discussing these in more detail. For this piece, I’ll just have the rankings and then respond to your comments. Blue bar starts a new tier. Let me know what you think!
January SP List
Looks good other than Greinke needs to move up two spots so there can be triple Zach/k again.
Great list. Missing Jose De Leon, but otherwise great list.
Paul, thanks for the list! I am curious about Gonsolin and Antone. They both have good stuff, but do you think their respective clubs will let them settle in as SPs or more likely long relief with starts now and then?
Gallen at 10 seems aggressive to me. I guess his slightly elevated GB% and seemingly good contact management make him more likely than some to consistently beat his FIP but ZIPS’ projected 3.74 ERA seems right and I while that’s valuable its not top 10.
Why so low on Flaherty? He’s been the 9th-11th pitcher off the board in NFBC so far (grouped with Castillo/Scherzer).
I think the drop is deserved after his underwhelming 2020. Sure, there are a bunch of extenuating circumstances, but you have to be at least a little wary of those results and his overall limited track record.
The pitchers in STL should benefit some from the extreme upgrade in defense with Arenado replacing Carpenter at 3B.
Arenado is a + for the defense. Losing Wong is a – for the defense. Overall, I think these changes more or less even out.
Curious as to why you have Keuchel ranked below a handful of pitchers with significant recent injuries, i.e. Montgomery, Eovaldi, Paxton and Rodriguez. Is it due to the lack of K’s? I understand they are in the same Tier so the rankings may be a little moot.
Ya I mean I like Eovaldi over him, Paxton seems like a good gamble risk over Keuchel…but it all depends. Keuchel always gets overlooked due to low K’s, and I can understand him slipping in leagues with inning caps, but assuming we are using NFBC he is printing money at his current price, assuming he can keep up his fip beating ways…which, who knows.
Keuchal relies a bit more on difficult to control metrics like LOB%, BABIP, and HR/FB, so his profile is more boom-bust. If things aren’t going right for him, his ERA and WHIP tend to implode a season, so paying for the upside comes with a nice risk discount.
great list! Couple questions just to understand the tiers a little more . . .
1. Would you take anyone in a tier over anyone else in the same tier if they’re cheaper? For example, in a 12 teamer standard roto, if you could keep Burnes for way less (~$15) than the likes of Gallen/Snell, would you do so?
2. What tier is the latest you’d want to take your SP1 in a relatively shallow mixed league (12 teams or fewer)?
Thanks for all your work!
Great list. Flip Nola and Gallen and looks even better 😉
Couple questions – as always, thanks for these!
1) Within the first three tiers, are you seeing much differentiation between the top and bottom guy in each tier?
2) How much of 2020 Joe Musgrove goes into his ranking? Changed pitch mix, higher K% in 2020, but SSS, obviously. Are you ranking on regression, or is there hope for growth and a potential hop into the next tier (since he’s close to the top of his tier)
3) Any chance to get a better accounting of all the Positional rankings on the site? I love that you link to the prior release in the post. But the Positional Rankings on the right still link to a 2020 ranking (and is often outdated). Would be awesome to have all the updated ranking easily accessible, as well as links to various other writers who do them here so we can easily compare and contrast, and develop meta analysis.
Thanks again!
Maybe I’m drinking too much short-sample kool aid, but I think I’d move Framber higher. Seems like he’s finally got the control ironed out a bit. Misses bats, gets grounders, works deep into games, has a solid offense behind him.
Luzardo looks great in highlights, but I’d like to see him get to 110 innings in a season before I put him a few rounds ahead of Valdez.
Holy shit someone likes Walker Buehler.I do like your list a lot overall though, with exception of Buehler and a couple other guys. Also I have this feeling Plesac is going to be a wtf were we thinking next year when he finally faces a team that doesn’t suck, same with Carrasco.
Walker seems crazy to me. What am I missing? Sure that HR rate can be variance, but he also decreased his K rate, increased his walk rate, all the while posting a .198 babip which is bound to go up. He also plays for a good team who isn’t shy about yanking pitchers early, and babying young pitchers. I don’t think the training wheels come off quite yet, and I def don’t think he is #4…but that is why rankings are fun!
No Mackenzie Gore? Concerned he won’t come up due to mechanical issues from last year?
You’re seriously ranking Ponce de Leon ahead of Mikolas (not to mention Wainwright)? Sure, Mikolas is a little questionable returning from injury, but he has a much better track record and a guaranteed rotation job. PdL might even be as low as 7th on the depth chart behind Alex Reyes.
Interesting list. Definitely aggressive on some, but seeing your real opinions is the whole point.
I’m a little surprised to see Kyle Cody and Jordan Lyles rated and Arihara not rated at all. Arihara pitched quite a bit last year and has pretty good control, so if he can bring any other positives, I would think that he should slip in somewhere toward the bottom.
What’s the thinking with Kershaw/Scherzer so far above Nola? Their ceilings are higher than Nola’s, but their injury risk weighs them down because of lost volume. Even if either finishes with sub-3.30 ERA, sub-1.15 WHIP, shouldn’t Nola’s extra volume and relatively similar numbers push him closer to the Best Pitchers of the 2010s? Or are you mostly rewarding Scherz’ and Kersh’s differences in ceiling?
Rankings are fun. I would move Scherzer down a tier, move Giolito and Castillo and Woodruff up a tier. I also move Sonny Gray down a tier and Maeda goes up (it helps that they signed Andrelton Simmons to play SS!!).
I am having a hard time projecting McCullers. I legit think he could be top 10-15 range if things break right, or drop down to the tier starting at 77.
McCullers, for me, is one of the easiest to project: He will past a sub-4 ERA with a high k-rate and good WHIP until his slider wrecks his arm again after 15 to 20 starts.