Justin Mason’s Top 150 Starting Pitchers: 2/3/2021
Drafts are in full swing and now I am 10 drafts into the season, here are my current ranks for starting pitchers for 2021. I will post updates every 2-4 weeks as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball.
Justin Mason’s Top 150 Starting Pitchers: 2/3/2021
| Rank | Player | Team | ADP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacob deGrom | NYM | 6.57 |
| 2 | Gerrit Cole | NYY | 5.07 |
| 3 | Shane Bieber | CLE | 9.11 |
| 4 | Yu Darvish | SD | 16.11 |
| 5 | Lucas Giolito | CWS | 17.18 |
| 6 | Walker Buehler | LAD | 20.29 |
| 7 | Trevor Bauer | FA | 17.36 |
| 8 | Aaron Nola | PHI | 21.71 |
| 9 | Luis Castillo | CIN | 24.04 |
| 10 | Brandon Woodruff | MLW | 30.11 |
| 11 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | 32.57 |
| 12 | Max Scherzer | WAS | 29.07 |
| 13 | Jack Flaherty | STL | 28.79 |
| 14 | Zac Gallen | ARZ | 38.64 |
| 15 | Kenta Maeda | MIN | 44.75 |
| 16 | Lance Lynn | CWS | 53.5 |
| 17 | Carlos Carrasco | NYM | 57.57 |
| 18 | Corbin Burnes | MLW | 58.18 |
| 19 | Blake Snell | SD | 43.46 |
| 20 | Tyler Glasnow | TB | 47.04 |
| 21 | Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 83.82 |
| 22 | Sonny Gray | CIN | 63.46 |
| 23 | Max Fried | ATL | 63.36 |
| 24 | Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 | TOR | 70.29 |
| 25 | Zach Plesac | CLE | 58.18 |
| 26 | Chris Paddack | SD | 104.61 |
| 27 | Ian Anderson | ATL | 95.61 |
| 28 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | 90.46 |
| 29 | Jose Berrios | MIN | 83.71 |
| 30 | Julio Urias | LAD | 112.89 |
| 31 | Charlie Morton | ATL | 113.54 |
| 32 | Pablo Lopez | MIA | 114.75 |
| 33 | Framber Valdez | HOU | 82.93 |
| 34 | Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 67.39 |
| 35 | Joe Musgrove | SD | 126.79 |
| 36 | Patrick Corbin | WAS | 139.39 |
| 37 | Frankie Montas | OAK | 153.93 |
| 38 | Zack Greinke | HOU | 106.86 |
| 39 | Kevin Gausman | SF | 114.04 |
| 40 | Jesus Luzardo | OAK | 96.39 |
| 41 | Andrew Heaney | LAA | 204.93 |
| 42 | Sixto Sanchez | MIA | 128.21 |
| 43 | Dylan Bundy | LAA | 98.21 |
| 44 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | 136.5 |
| 45 | Tyler Mahle | CIN | 161 |
| 46 | Marco Gonzales | SEA | 168.36 |
| 47 | Marcus Stroman | NYM | 228.21 |
| 48 | Dustin May | LAD | 157.04 |
| 49 | Aaron Civale | CLE | 180.04 |
| 50 | Triston McKenzie | CLE | 198.89 |
| 51 | German Marquez | COL | 173.04 |
| 52 | Tony Gonsolin | LAD | 186.46 |
| 53 | Chris Bassitt | OAK | 195.61 |
| 54 | John Means | BAL | 204.25 |
| 55 | Dinelson Lamet | SD | 78.07 |
| 56 | Griffin Canning | LAA | 311.21 |
| 57 | Jose Urquidy | HOU | 228.86 |
| 58 | Lance McCullers Jr. | HOU | 117.54 |
| 59 | Jameson Taillon | NYY | 234.93 |
| 60 | Corey Kluber | NYY | 236.57 |
| 61 | James Paxton | NYY | 252.86 |
| 62 | Mike Soroka | ATL | 183.82 |
| 63 | Dane Dunning | TEX | 275.57 |
| 64 | Kwang Hyun Kim 김광현 | STL | 278.32 |
| 65 | David Price | LAD | 189.89 |
| 66 | Ryan Yarbrough | TB | 240.39 |
| 67 | Nate Pearson | TOR | 278.75 |
| 68 | Matthew Boyd | DET | 334.32 |
| 69 | Mitch Keller | PIT | 329.14 |
| 70 | Drew Smyly | ATL | 199.57 |
| 71 | Shohei Ohtani | LAA | 250.96 |
| 72 | Nathan Eovaldi | BOS | 229.36 |
| 73 | Zach Eflin | PHI | 189.86 |
| 74 | Zach Davies | CHC | 243.07 |
| 75 | Cristian Javier | HOU | 227.93 |
| 76 | Brady Singer | KC | 221.54 |
| 77 | Dallas Keuchel | CWS | 204.43 |
| 78 | Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 186 |
| 79 | Chris Sale | BOS | 243.71 |
| 80 | Yusei Kikuchi | SEA | 306.82 |
| 81 | Sean Manaea | OAK | 240.25 |
| 82 | Robbie Ray | TOR | 342.43 |
| 83 | Carlos Martinez | STL | 410.71 |
| 84 | Garrett Richards | BOS | 430.5 |
| 85 | Deivi Garcia | NYY | 312.96 |
| 86 | Caleb Smith | ARZ | 331.71 |
| 87 | Luke Weaver | ARZ | 399.21 |
| 88 | A.J. Puk | OAK | 408.93 |
| 89 | Adam Wainwright | STL | 426.68 |
| 90 | Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 240.18 |
| 91 | Justus Sheffield | SEA | 292.04 |
| 92 | Domingo German | NYY | 316.43 |
| 93 | Taijuan Walker | FA | 316.71 |
| 94 | Spencer Howard | PHI | 367.36 |
| 95 | Merrill Kelly 켈리 | ARZ | 508.93 |
| 96 | Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 395 |
| 97 | Jon Gray | COL | 514.32 |
| 98 | Jake Odorizzi | FA | 289.75 |
| 99 | Luis Severino | NYY | 378.86 |
| 100 | Elieser Hernandez | MIA | 261 |
| 101 | Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 355.89 |
| 102 | Michael Pineda | MIN | 232.61 |
| 103 | Antonio Senzatela | COL | 556.68 |
| 104 | Brad Keller | KC | 312.93 |
| 105 | Keegan Akin | BAL | 497.43 |
| 106 | Tarik Skubal | DET | 306.93 |
| 107 | Dylan Cease | CWS | 377.75 |
| 108 | Anthony DeSclafani | SF | 414.11 |
| 109 | Chris Archer | PIT | 533.57 |
| 110 | Seth Lugo | NYM | 375.96 |
| 111 | Tanner Houck | BOS | 386.32 |
| 112 | MacKenzie Gore | SD | 330.43 |
| 113 | Adrian Morejon | SD | 450.14 |
| 114 | Luis Patino | TB | 437.82 |
| 115 | Ross Stripling | TOR | 453.71 |
| 116 | Josh Lindblom 린드블럼 | MLW | 338.07 |
| 117 | Brent Suter | MLW | 507.32 |
| 118 | Casey Mize | DET | 381.5 |
| 119 | Adrian Houser | MLW | 453.75 |
| 120 | Rich Hill | MIN | 475.86 |
| 121 | Randy Dobnak | MIN | 511.14 |
| 122 | Daniel Ponce de Leon | STL | 441.64 |
| 123 | Trevor Williams | CHC | 737.36 |
| 124 | J.A. Happ | MIN | 395.75 |
| 125 | Madison Bumgarner | ARZ | 400.32 |
| 126 | Michael Kopech | CWS | 307.36 |
| 127 | Kris Bubic | KC | 473.46 |
| 128 | Spencer Turnbull | DET | 345.54 |
| 129 | Garrett Crochet | CWS | 492.39 |
| 130 | Mike Minor | KC | 307.29 |
| 131 | Steven Brault | PIT | 483.82 |
| 132 | Kyle Freeland | COL | 576.61 |
| 133 | JT Brubaker | PIT | 467.36 |
| 134 | Kyle Gibson | TEX | 533.82 |
| 135 | Chad Kuhl | PIT | 578.18 |
| 136 | Matt Shoemaker | TOR | 494.25 |
| 137 | Alex Wood | SF | 493.86 |
| 138 | Danny Duffy | KC | 499.25 |
| 139 | Justin Dunn | SEA | 537.64 |
| 140 | Daulton Jefferies | OAK | 554.04 |
| 141 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | 443.39 |
| 142 | Freddy Peralta | MLW | 339.39 |
| 143 | Cal Quantrill | CLE | 360.07 |
| 144 | David Peterson | NYM | 359.21 |
| 145 | Adbert Alzolay | CHC | 360.18 |
| 146 | Miles Mikolas | STL | 376.93 |
| 147 | Johnny Cueto | SF | 545.75 |
| 148 | Alex Cobb | BAL | 623.29 |
| 149 | Alec Mills | CHC | 482.21 |
| 150 | Jose Quintana | LAA | 456.14 |
ADP is from NFBC Draft Champions Leagues from 1/1-1/31.
Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.
Thanks Justin! Always a great read through. By the way, it says “catcher” in the first paragraph but we know it’s all about pitchers here.
Also, impressed that Framber Valdez’s 2020 season has catapulted him past a lot of good arms. We’ll see if everything holds.
Is Jose Quintana really last on your list? A 150 ranking based on 30 teams and five starters suggests a workhorse good for 30+ starts and 170+ innings is a half step backwards from being out of MLB!
BTW It links to a Jose Quintana who is 18-years-old and in the Blue Jays organization, but it says LAA, so I’m not sure who you’re ranking there.
I’m pretty sure the player page links are automated (remember many instances of Johan Santa), so I’d trust the LAA tag.
That is also my assumption. More surprised the automated link generator would go to the teenager in the Blue Jays system.
Well Rob, while I understand Quintana could be rated a bit higher, he is projected for a 4.68 ERA by depth charts, he is 32 years old and he is not a strikeout pitcher.
Fair enough. I’ll take the over on him though.
As will I. One aspect not to be underrated this season is durability. Quintana strikes me as the type of veteran who will hold up well and deliver innings, much more than a younger pitcher.
Thank you for this list. I generally agree with these rankings. With any ranking of SP for 2021, there is a giant elephant in the room … with the short 2020 season, who will make it to a full season (~200 – 170 innings) in 2021? When you look at innings pitched in 2018 and 2019, guys like Fried, Gallen, and Castillo were all arguably poised to make the jump or maintain 200 innings in a full season of 2020 (whether their management would actually let them is another question). You would think they put in the reps outside of the short season to maintain their position.
On the other hand, guys like Corbin Burnes has never broken 80 innings at the major league level. He too has probably put in the time outside the shortened season. These guys are all ranked around the same top 30 to top 15 zone (which I totally agree with).
All this rambling to say, it would be great to see your take on predicting innings pitched. Obviously the error bars would be huge, but even a prediction of plus or minus 30 innings would be vastly informative.
Thanks you again for this article today.
I think the innings questions is a concern for Burnes. If I knew for sure I was getting, 170-190, I would be even higher on Burnes. I have him projected for about 150, but there is risk in that and I could drop him a few spots. I have been drafting him a lot and I wanted my rank to reflect that, but maybe it is aggresive.
I’m fascinated with Cristina Javier’s extreme profile. Using the standard settings on Savant’s leaderboard, Javier had the highest LA among the 101 qualifiers, and not by a little, by a lot at 25.1*, more than 2* higher than 2nd. At the same time, he had the 18th lowest EV at 86.9 mph. He’s the rare fly ball contact manager. HIs K’s were so-so last year but have been really high in the minors. If he can bump that number up, he could be really, really good.
I really like his core skills, but he needs a third pitch or he will end up being a bullpen arm.
I always hear everybody say that, and maybe that is the reason for your Lamet rating, but plenty of pitchers get by throwing basically two pitches.
Lamet is a giant injury question mark going into spring training.
ya no doubt. not disagreeing here. I literally just traded him today.
What kind of value did you get for him? I’m in the same position and would love to move him + Rhys Hoskins for a single better player, but I don’t know how the market is lining up for Lamet and don’t want to just firesale him away.
Most people don’t like my get tbh, but razzball and basically every other source does, and I trust computers more than ppls opinions. Dynasty keep forever, My Bryant, Lamet, Benitendi for M Chapman, Gausman and Means. Through the context I view it as Chapman>Bryant, Gausman only a year older than Lamet and less of an injury risk and peripherals thought he was basically the same pitcher last year. So to me Gausman with injury risk at least is = lamet, and Means is a pitcher I like this year. I did sell 2 of those 3 guys at basically their minimum value, but I’m not fully confident beni isn’t on waivers even in a dynasty by years end.
Me likey list.
Archer was signed by the rays, where does that put him now?
Tampa Bay?
haha, Does the signing shift him On the list…
No difference between Pittsburgh and Tampa. Both are pitchers parks. Tampa has a bit better bats for support, but not by that much.
In all seriousness, I actually think it hurts his value. If he went somewhere else, you could always dream on some pitching coach unlocking something. However, his decline started in TB in the first place and they couldn’t fix it. Why would one bet on them doing it now?
I’m fine with that. I don’t know if that is how the market will play because it seems like he’ll likely eat up innings. Personally, I’m gonna be looking for some underrated production and I believe the Rays can re-adjust his pitch mix that got out of balance in Pittsburgh. So lower price is good
I had information prior to the list coming out that Archer was signing, so this rank reflects that. However, the more I think about it, I should drop Archer a bit due to health concerns .
I spent some time reading about TOS, and while I’m no expert, and would love to hear an expert opinion (I’m hoping from beat the shift) to find out more, the stuff I was reading suggested that velocity and control were recoverable. I’m wondering if there is a misconception that it is a career-ender with some of the guys deciding to hang up their cleats. Also, a huge inference/assumption is why are the Rays giving him only one year? Boston was only going to give Kluber (and Richards they gave) a 1+1 deal. No option tells me maybe the Rays have more confidence in him. Food for thought, please let me know if I’m missing something or just wrong.
Please answer @Anon’s question re: “Cristina Javier” thx
One of the lower rankings I’ve seen for Lamet. Is that based off skillset or injury risk?
Holy hell, I did a double take. I’d have to assume it is injury risk. Guy was going right around Kershaw in most NFBC’s to date
Yup. Too many reports that the Padres are worried about Lamet’s health. Great pitcher but….
It is definitely injury risk. The Padres bringing in so many starters has me concerned about their lack of confidence in his health.
I know Lamet had arm issues at the end of last year, and I think that’s a valid reason to downrank him. However, if your logic is “the Padres brought in more SP depth” – wouldn’t that also mean you should downrank the other starters? For all we know, that depth could have been the plan w/o any Lamet risk – SP depth is key. It also could have reflected their concern about Darvish’s health, Snell and Paddack’s effectiveness, etc.
I agree with your downrank but don’t think your reason is sufficient justification, unless you consistently apply that logic to other SD SP.
I actually agree to downgrade all the starters if they are going to a 6 man rotation. A guy on Twitter showed that even if we use Bauers projection, he instantly would be considered the most valuable player in fantasy if he pitched every 4 days. So I’d have to imagine that it works in reverse for 6 man.
I have the 6-man rotation guys bumped down more than this, at least in formats with weekly scoring, due to lack of 2-start weeks.
Excellent point. It makes a difference.
I understand that, but we have no idea how many teams will use a 6-man rotation and how many can stick to it through an entire season. Definitely worth putting into your ranks though.
I’m definitely in on Alex Wood at that rank
The reason for the big drop in ranking for Nate Eovaldi? He was ranked 24th in the FWFB guide, now down to 72?
The ranks in the guide are based on projections that weren’t completely mine. My rank is lower because of the injury risk.
Those of us in A.L. only leagues….it interesting to see how few A.L. pitchers make the top 20 (only 5)…the 11th best pitcher in the A.L, is Luzardo at number 40 and Civali (15th in A.L) at 49th spot on this list. As you look over the bottom 50 pitchers on this list for the A.L. …..who would you target for you 4th and 5th starters and bench slot that might have some upside?
Not many. Chris Archer is worth a shot for sure. Rich Hill if he stays healthy…..but he won’t. Turnbull has shown flashes and is young enough. For me in an American League pool, I would pick a good 7th inning reliever before a 5th starter because your 5th starter is likely to hurt you more than help you.
Thanks…I agree. I look for power arms on winning teams to vulture wins with decent whips, Era and K’s. It is an auction, keeper league that you have fill 5 SP slots….the other benefit of feeding off of power arm relievers….you sometimes end up with a closer. It sounds like the Rays will have a bunch 100 IP pitchers to choose from….