Archive for Starting Pitchers

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

• The Braves and Phillies play the fourth game of a wraparound series on Monday, September 7. The matchup score for the Braves’ pitcher at Philadelphia is 64 and the score for the Phillies’ pitcher versus Atlanta is 91.

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Feels like a starting pitcher is hitting the IL every day. Or is that just on my fantasy team? As I scoured the waiver wire for options to just get me some innings, I wanted to try to at least maintain some kind of floor.

When looking at pitchers outside of your top rostered starters, it can be a minefield; these are pitchers not picked up for a reason. The problem that can be prevalent is that these pitchers are susceptible to blow-up innings that quickly crater decent starts into nightmare starts. Often this takes place on the third time through the lineup.

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After the home run on Wednesday and this, perhaps Vladdy is getting his mojo back…

On the Agenda: 

1. Quick Hits
2. Various News and Notes
3. Streaming Pitchers

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Series Overview

This series aims to help readers conduct routine due diligence in their dynasty leagues. It makes use of up-to-date OOPSY Peak projections and my own arbitrary whims to discuss a handful of players, both prospects and major leaguers, who may have seen their perceived value shift recently. Any reference to how a player projects using the FanGraphs auction calculator uses these settings (15-team 5×5 SV 2 C) with OOPSY DC (ROS).

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Brother Luis Luis Luis!

He sure does look good in orange.

On the Agenda: 

1. Quick Hits
2. Various News and Notes
3. Streaming Pitchers

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There is no such thing as the perfect fantasy draft. Even national contest winners in fields of 3,000 teams will have drafted several busts or players who haven’t earned their value. We can still win our leagues despite making numerous mistakes in the draft. In fact, leagues will be won this year by teams who may have even drafted two busts in the first two rounds — the 2026 top 24 has been historically bad. A drafter could have started with Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh, but could have a monster lead on second place if they drafted Dillon Dingler, Jordan Walker, Miguel Vargas, Jacob Misiorowski, Cam Schlittler and FAAB’d Jacob Latz, Parker Messick, Liam Hicks and Kody Clemens.

Though in-season free-agent pickups will not always save us, take a look at my worst of four NFBC Online Championship (OC) drafts, a 12-team national contest:

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One way to identify potential pitch mix changes is to compare monthly fastball (four-seamer and sinker) usage splits to season-long averages. That helps identify which pitchers have been increasing or decreasing their fastball usage, typically in favor of other offerings.

The chart below shows the pitchers who averaged a lower fastball usage in July and August compared to their season-long average by 5 or more percentage points.

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Induced vertical break (IVB) is a measure of how much vertical movement or ride a fastball has. It can be an important factor in determining the shape of a pitcher’s fastball, and some pitchers are much more reliant on it than others. It can be the difference between six to seven innings and getting pulled after four and a third. As we get to the final weeks of the season, movement and ride on a pitcher’s fastball can begin to degrade after the wear and tear of the season. This piece will look at what kind of pitchers are reliant on IVB for success, which pitchers have been most impacted by the wear and tear of the season, and who is still able to maintain vertical movement in the final stages of the season. Which pitchers’ four-seams actually depend on IVB, and where is that IVB heading right now?

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Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

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Rumbling, bumbling, stumbling…Zac Veen tumbling

On the Agenda: 

1. Quick Hits
2. Various News and Notes
3. Streaming Pitchers

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