Five Starting Pitchers Adjusting Their Pitch Mix in July and August

One way to identify potential pitch mix changes is to compare monthly fastball (four-seamer and sinker) usage splits to season-long averages. That helps identify which pitchers have been increasing or decreasing their fastball usage, typically in favor of other offerings.

The chart below shows the pitchers who averaged a lower fastball usage in July and August compared to their season-long average by 5 or more percentage points.

We’ve discussed Joey Cantillo multiple times. Adrian Houser has been throwing harder over the past two seasons, adding to the intrigue before he landed on the injured list with a right forearm strain in late August. Spencer Arrighetti has only pitched two games with the Blues while continuing to show poor control.

But five of the other names on this list are worth a closer look. How has this impacted their pitch mix? Should they continue throwing fewer fastballs?

Noah Cameron, SP, Royals

Since July, Cameron has been pitching well, with a 2.74 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and a 3.13 xERA. Given Cameron’s 12.9% K-BB and 4.18 SIERA, it appears he has been fortunate. Cameron’s fastball usage has continued to trend down. He is throwing his four-seamer 16.8% of the time in August, coinciding with more sliders (20.7%) and changeups (21.1%).

He has been throwing each of those “secondaries” over 20% of the time in August. All three of the changeup (.232 wOBA, .258 xwOBA), cutter (.349 wOBA, .289 xwOBA), and slider (.099 wOBA, .126 xwOBA) have been effective, and have an xwOBA under .300.

Cameron gets those results by relying on command. His overall location+ has been strong since the start of July (103 Location+), and those three pitches — the cutter (114), slider (115), and changeup (110) — have been even better. Cameron was struggling before July, with a 4.95 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP, though the K-BB% (13.5%) was similar.

What’s changed is the ground ball rate. Cameron has a 44.5% groundball rate since July compared to 34.7% before. Specifically, Cameron’s cutter and changeup have been inducing more ground balls. Interestingly, the sinker’s groundball rate has fluctuated, with 66.7% in August and 33.3% in July. That has coincided with a big drop in BABIP and a nice increase in strand-rate. That .212 BABIP may not be sustainable (which is why his SIERA and K-BB don’t support his ERA), but his FIP (3.47) suggests there is at least some reason to believe.

Cameron’s pitch mix changes throughout the season have been actionable, with better command (105 Location+) than last season. These are the types of adjustments to buy into from a starting pitcher, though there can be bumps if the command wanes. He will be a top target next season.

Cade Cavalli, SP, Nationals

Cade Cavalli has been a fantasy success story in 2026, sitting in the top 20 SP on our Player Rater despite being drafted outside the top 300 overall. And it’s not just results – Cavalli’s 20.5% K-BB% and 3.28 SIERA indicate his skills support those results. The improvements seem to come from Cavalli making intentional changes.

Cavalli lowered his four-seam and sinker usage while throwing more knuckle curves and sweepers since July. Specifically, Cavalli is throwing his knuckle curve 29.4% of the time with a sweeper at 19.1% in August. Meanwhile, Cavalli lowered his four-seam usage to 27%.

The breaking pitches have been strong parts of his arsenal. The sweeper (114) and knuckle curve (111) lead his arsenal in Stuff+. Cavalli’s sweeper (which may be a variation on his knuckle curve) is new to his arsenal this season and gives him a different look from a breaker. The knuckle curve drops three inches more than the sweeper, with the latter moving 7 additional inches toward his glove side.

Cavalli was one of my breakout starting pitchers heading into 2026, so this is partly confirmation bias, but I am buying in on Cavalli. We are seeing him evolve into something better by adding the sweeper and adjusting his pitch mix. And the changes in four-seam usage from the start of July suggest he is still finding ways to adjust and improve. If Cavalli’s command or stuff improves next season, he could take it to another level.

Carmen Mlodzinski, SP, Pirates

Mlodzinski’s role has been murky throughout the season, pitching as a starter and reliever, so we’re dealing with a smaller sample of pitches in July and August, but we can still see some changes. It’s not just the last couple of months, either. Mlodzinski has toyed with his pitch mix throughout the season. For example, he threw more splitters (31.5%) in July, dropping to 21.8% in August. Meanwhile, Mlodzinski has increased his sinker (19.7%) and sweeper (12.8%) usage, both rising by 5-7 percentage points.

All these shifts might be an attempt to find a solution for lefties, as Mlodzinski has a 2.73 FIP and a .281 wOBA allowed vs. righties, but a 4.27 FIP and .345 wOBA allowed against lefties.

Through all of these changes in pitch mix, his splitter has been effective, allowing a .278 wOBA (.281 xwOBA) in August and .106 wOBA (.218 xwOBA) in July. And he throws that pitch most often against left-handed hitters (33.9%, up 10 percentage points from last season).

Besides the splitter, Mlodzinski’s sweeper has been performing decently by allowing a .245 wOBA (.317 xwOBA), though he hardly throws it (5.7%). Meanwhile, lefties have crushed the rest of Mlodzinski’s primary pitches, allowing a .421 wOBA on the four-seamer, a .357 on the curveball, and .403 on the sinker.

It might benefit Mlodzinski to throw more sweepers against left-handed hitters if he can locate them low and inside, generating weak contact. The sweeper has a significantly different movement profile this season, with 41.8 inches of downward movement (7 inches more than last year) and 12.1 inches of glove-side sweep (4 more than last year).

Mlodzinski’s four-seam and sinker have been hit hard by both sides of the plate, so he might want to lower the usage on those two even further. However, the numbers suggest he commands them well, with the four-seam (106) and sinker (107) having an above-average Location+. Mlodzinski throws his four-seamer in the zone 52.4% of the time while opposing hitters make plenty of contact (85.6%). Unfortunately, righties (.401 wOBA, .355 xwOBA) and lefties (.421 wOBA, .395 xwOBA) have been crushing the four-seamer.

Similarly, Mlodzinski pounds the zone with the sinker (61.9% zone rate), with opposing hitters making contact 96.7% of the time. The sinker and four-seamer have been pitch-to-contact offerings, but the sinker has allowed hard contact against left-handed (.403 wOBA, .508 xwOBA) and right-handed (.363 wOBA, .369 xwOBA) hitters.

Mlodzinski’s Stuff+ is down to 92 this year, from 102 (2025) and 105 (2024), though his command improved to a career-best 105. There probably isn’t much actionable for 2026, since he hasn’t reached five innings since late May and has allowed 11 earned runs across 8.1 innings over the past three games.

Make a mental note of Mlodzinski heading into the 2027 season. If the tinkering helps him find success against lefties, he could finish strong and continues to adjust his pitch mix as a deep sleeper.

Payton Tolle, SP, Red Sox

Tolle has surpassed expectations by pitching like an above-average starting pitcher from the jump. He has been lowering his four-seam usage in July (45.3%) and August (39.3%) while throwing slightly more cutters and curveballs. Specifically, Tolle has been throwing his cutter 26% of the time in July and 21.6% in August. For context, Tolle threw his cutter 19.9% of the time this season.

Tolle threw curveballs 14.6% of the time in August, up from 9.4% across the season. The curveball has been nearly unhittable by righties, with a .148 wOBA (.056 xwOBA) against right-handed hitters in August. That’s not far from Tolle’s season-long outcomes via the curveball (.196 wOBA, .142 xwOBA) against righties. That makes his curve, with its 128 Stuff+, a huge weapon for the lefty against opposite handed hitters. Among starting pitchers with 50 innings, Tolle’s curveball ranks 5th in Stuff+ behind Emerson Hancock, Jacob Misiorowski, Braxton Ashcraft, and Clay Holmes.

Only Tolle and Misiorowski have elite four-seamers and curveballs in Stuff+, as seen above. Zack Wheeler and Tarik Skubal popped on the list of starters with elite four-seamers and curveballs. Meanwhile, Christian Scott and Gage Jump have above-average heaters with elite curveballs in Stuff+.

Speaking of Tolle’s heater, it makes sense for him to rely on it. Though Tolle threw his four-seamer at a season-low percentage, 41.7% of the time in August against right-handed hitters, the results have been solid, with a .177 wOBA (.230 xwOBA). The four-seam results against righties were poor in July (.524 wOBA, .408 xwOBA), but the heater has been performing well (.249 wOBA, .254 xwOBA) this season.

Tolle introduced a sinker, throwing it 19.1% against righties and 30.9% to lefties this season. It was a new pitch for him, with better results against lefties (.347 wOBA, .300 xwOBA) than righties (.379 wOBA, .325 xwOBA). He tends to command the sinker well with a 105 Location+. Tolle’s sinker generates ground balls 54.3% of the time and allows contact (87.4%), with the hopes of inducing weak batted balls, given the 16.8 inches of arm-side fade.

Tolle’s skills (21% K-BB%), whiffs (13.3% swinging-strike rate), and stuff (114 Stuff+) have been in the high-end to near-elite range. Fantasy managers will have to pay a higher toll for Tolle, and there’s a lot to like next season after being a favorite of mine heading into 2026.

Will Warren, SP, Yankees

Like these other starting pitchers, Warren has been lowering his fastball usage, specifically throwing fewer four-seamers in July (30.1%) and August (31.3%). Meanwhile, Warren threw his sinker 23% of the time in July and 24.7% in August. That coincides with Warren throwing more changeups and a consistent dose of sweepers (16-18%).

That’s interesting because Warren’s four-seam (110) and sinker (104) have been two of his best pitches from a Stuff+ standpoint. Though Warren’s four-seamer grades well in Stuff+, he tends to throw it too often in the zone. Warren’s four-seamer performs well against right-handed hitters (.259 wOBA, .244 xwOBA), though the sinker has been hit hard (.382 wOBA, .358 xwOBA). For context, Warren’s results via the four-seamer (.246 wOBA, .270 xwOBA in 2025) and sinker (.297 wOBA, .315 xwOBA in 2025) have been worse this year than they were last year against right-handed hitters.

Against lefties, Warren has been lowering his four-seam usage (36.6%) while throwing more sinkers (19.2%). That’s a 10-point drop in four-seam usage against lefties with a 12-point increase in sinkers. Warren’s sinker has an above-average downward and horizontal movement profile, aligning with the above-average Stuff+ grade. Though Warren’s sinker has a 98 Location+, he seems to locate it well by throwing it outside to left-handed hitters and toward the inside third of the plate to righties.

Warren has been throwing a few more curveballs, tossing 9.4% in August and 10.3% in July. He hardly throws his curveball (7.5%), the lowest among his five pitches against left-handed hitters. Warren’s curveball tends to generate weaker contact than the actual outcomes, with a .397 wOBA and .250 xwOBA. Though Warren throws his curveball in the zone 25.1% of the time, opposing hitters make contact 68.1% overall and 93.8% when in the zone.

He commands the curveball well, low and below the zone, supported by his 113 Location+. When Warren locates his curveball low and below the zone, he succeeds. However, left-handed hitters put the curveball into play when he hangs them in the heart of the zone.

Warren’s fastball (four-seamer and sinker) and sweeper approach works against right-handed hitters. That said, it’s an actionable change for Warren to back off his four-seamer usage to left-handed hitters while throwing more changeups and sinkers. Though Warren’s career ERA (4.77) and WHIP (1.42) look worrisome on the surface, the career 3.87 xFIP and 4.01 SIERA provide optimism, especially if the pitch mix supports more consistency and better outcomes.