Deep League Starting Pitchers (Morris, Keller, Wood, & Suarez)
I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP. Here are the previous editions:
Archive for Starting Pitchers
Justin Verlander Heads to Big Apple
December 7, 2022
Just three days after Jacob deGrom signed with the Rangers, it was reported that the Mets agreed to a two-year, $86.66 million contract with Justin Verlander. That’s a lot of money for a 40 and 41 year old pitcher! Ignoring his age and the possibility of performance decline, let’s consult the park factors to determine how the move from Minute Maid Park to Citi Field might affect his results.
Jacob deGrom Chooses Texas BBQ Over NY Pizza
December 5, 2022
On Friday, Jacob deGrom signed a five year, lots of money contract with the Texas Rangers, where the smell of smoked meat wafts through the air. Let’s compare the park factors of his previous New York home, Citi Field, with his new Arlington home, Globe Life Field and find out how his performance might be affected, if all else was equal (which it never is). Since we don’t need to worry about the DH only existing in the AL anymore, it makes for a much easier comparison than in years past.
Justin Mason vs ADP: 5 SP Hates
by Justin Mason
December 2, 2022
I am almost all the way through my pitching projections and as I start to compare my projections versus ADP I am noticing guys that I think are nice values or guys that are extremely overrated early in draft season. Here are a few of the starting pitchers I have ranked well below where they are going versus other starters in terms of NFBC Draft Champions ADP.
Dylan Cease: My Rank 19, ADP: 6
I am not surprised to see Cease a lot lower in my ranks than in the ADP. He is coming off of a monster season, but there are clear red flags. First, for being an “elite” starter, he doesn’t have a great WHIP. I think this is one of the most overlooked categories in the game. Part of his issue with the WHIP is how much he walks guys and I worry about the fact he does not have great control and him relying so much on two pitches. He could easily repeat last season and I’ll look dumb, but if I am taking a pitcher as high as he is going, then I would prefer to not have the questions I did.
Spencer Strider: My Rank: 17, ADP: 8
This is another player that I could look really stupid by the end of 2023. Strider was one of the best pitchers in baseball if you look on a per inning basis. If he repeats with a higher inning total, he could easily be the #1 pitcher in fantasy. That being said, I struggle with his lack of track record and what his innings count will be. He threw 136.1 innings in 2022 if you include the playoffs and minors and while he could make a jump to 150 or 160 innings, but I have a hard time projecting that. I also worry about his true two-pitch mix. Guys like him can struggle when they don’t have the feel for a pitch and as hitters start to see him over time. He may move up in my projections over time, but even if he does, I can’t imagine he ends up on any of my teams this year.
Nick Lodolo: My Rank 69, ADP 38
This one hurts a little because I love Lodolo’s potential. He can strike out anyone and I the control and command are improving. However, I don’t love that he pitches in Cincinnati. It is a horrible park and the team is not going to be good at all. He is likely going to deliver a bad WHIP and wins will be hard to come by and while I love the upside, it is hard to take a guy that has potential to be just a two-category producer as a SP 3 or high end 4.
Dustin May: My Rank 93, ADP: 46
Who is Dustin May? That is the question I struggled with when doing his projections. I want to believe he is the dominant guy we saw in 2021 and that 2022 is largely a product of his health. That being said, I just can’t get past the injury issues. He only threw 51 innings between the Majors and minors and he didn’t even appear in the postseason. I can’t imagine he gets to 130+ innings which means his upside is limited even on a great Dodgers team.
Michael Kopech My Rank: 101, ADP: 69
I am surprised at this point that people are still drafting Kopech as highly as they are considering what we have seen from him. I think a lot of people are throwing out how he looked after hurting his knee in June, but I worry about his command and control and the huge dropoff in strikeout rate in 2022 which means he is a fifth starter with a bad WHIP. Finally, I worry he won’t be able to throw 140-150 innings. Maybe a return to health means he becomes the guy many believed (including me) he would eventually become, but I think there are too many people still drafting him based off of his name value from that prospect pedigree and not enough people looking at what has happened on the field. I could definitely find myself pushing him up my ranks in spring training if we see a completely healthy Kopech that looks great, but for right now, I can’t draft him at cost.
Pitcher Fastball Velocity Decliners 4/14/2022 – A Review
December 1, 2022
Just as important as monitoring fastball velocities for spikes to identify potential breakouts, velocity declines might hint at potential injury and/or a drop in performance. So let’s now review the six pitchers who experienced early season velocity declines versus 2021 and find out if their velocities rebounded.
Justin Mason vs ADP: 5 SP Loves
by Justin Mason
November 30, 2022
I am almost all the way through my pitching projections and as I start to compare my projections versus ADP I am noticing guys that I think are nice values or guys that are extremely overrated early in draft season. Here are a few of the starting pitchers I have ranked well above where they are going versus other starters in terms of NFBC draft champions ADP.
The Argument for Spencer Strider
by Alex Sonty
November 29, 2022
We don’t need a post telling us that Spencer Strider is a really good pitcher, but there might be a need for one that he’s already one of the greatest in the game. And his strengths play to everything we want in fantasy.
Shohei Ohtani tops the list of pitchers for obvious reasons, but the next nine or so are more jumbled than we might think. Taking a look at where Strider ranks among all pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched tells an important story:
Starting Pitcher Fastball Velocity Surgers 4/12/2022 — A Review
November 29, 2022
Let’s continue reviewing how the first start fastball velocity surgers performed over the rest of the season. Did they maintain their velocity spikes and post a higher strikeout rate or did their gains fade?
Starting Pitcher Fastball Velocity Surgers 4/11/2022 — A Review
November 28, 2022
Early in the season when we have a limited sample size to work with, I like to investigate those metrics that stabilize the quickest. Fastball velocity is one of those metrics. Since velocity is highly correlated with strikeout rate, a spike in velocity might hint at a strikeout rate surge, and perhaps a breakout. I originally identified six starting pitchers that enjoyed a velocity bump in their first start versus their 2021 marks. Let’s see if they were able to maintain those increases over the rest of the season.
Deep League Starting Pitchers (Bradish, Wainwright, Soroka, & Ortiz)
I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP. Here are the previous editions:
- Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore
- Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill, & Steele
- Walker, Pérez, Manaea, & Bello
- Megill, Stripling, Jameson, & Civale
- Whitlock, Houck, Gray, & Maeda
- Peterson, Matz, Syndergaard, & Quintana
Kyle Bradish (364 ADP)
The 26-year-old righty showed some positive signs of last season with an 8.5 K/9 and a 4.01 xFIP. He improved in the second half (.396 BABIP to .253) when his ERA dropped from 7.38 to 3.28 and his WHIP from 1.77 to 1.16. His core talent didn’t change with his K%-BB% dropping from 13.2% to 12.5% but his ground ball rate going up from 42% to 48%. Very bland profile.