Justin Mason vs ADP: 5 SP Loves

I am almost all the way through my pitching projections and as I start to compare my projections versus ADP I am noticing guys that I think are nice values or guys that are extremely overrated early in draft season. Here are a few of the starting pitchers I have ranked well above where they are going versus other starters in terms of NFBC draft champions ADP. 

Max Scherzer: My Rank 4, ADP: 17

I am not surprised to see Scherzer fall after posting only 145.1 innings in his age 37 season. The fantasy community is about as ageist as can be so seeing him makes some sense. That being said, in spite of his low innings, he still had a top 20 season as a starter according to the Razzball player rater and it was his lowest ERA of his career and the second lowest walk rate of his career. Even if you are conservative with his projection in terms of innings, he still gives a ton of strikeouts and amazing ratios. 


Lance Lynn: My Rank 22, ADP: 42

I am not surprised to see Lynn being higher in my ranks than ADP after me being so high on him coming into last year. He really struggled in June and July after missing all of April and May due to injury. However, after the All-Star Break he was a top 20 pitcher in fantasy posting a 2.52 ERA, 89 strikeouts, seven wins, and a .98 WHIP in 89 innings. I tend to believe that he should be able to carry a lot of that over. I think the fact he is entering his age 36 season will give everyone a reason to fade him, but I am a big fan. 


Jordan Montgomery: My Rank 30, ADP: 53

Montgomery is coming off of a breakout season in which he posted a career high in innings and a career best in ERA and WHIP. While he had a couple of blowup starts after being traded to St. Louis, you have to love his overall line after being dealt, posting a 3.11 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 61 strikeouts in 63.2 innings. He has a fantastic park, amazing defense behind him and a good division to pitch against. He isn’t overpowering like other options, but he is a well rounded pitcher with a ton going for him. 


Miles Mikolas: My Rank: 46, ADP: 69

Mikolas is underrated because he is boring, like super boring. However, all he does is rack up innings with good ratios and there is a place for that in fantasy. He has the park and defense advantages from being in Busch Stadium and he is really good at keeping men off base. The strikeouts are a deficiency, but if you pair him with a high strikeout pitcher then he makes a lot of sense for many builds. 

Aaron Civale: My Rank: 60, ADP: 101

Civale is buried in the ADP right now and for good reason. His surface stats were awful because of a really terrible first half, where he posted a 6.17 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. However, he was running a .350 BABIP and a 59% strand rate during that time. Once he returned in August from an IL stint due to a wrist injury, he was fantastic, posting a 3.35 ERA, .84 WHIP, and 46 strikeouts in 43 innings even while missing two weeks with forearm soreness in early September.  He is probably somewhere in between the two halves, but I believe a healthy Civale can be a very effective pitcher and is a steal right now at his price. 

Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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2 months ago

In 100% agreement on Civale.