The Argument for Spencer Strider

We don’t need a post telling us that Spencer Strider is a really good pitcher, but there might be a need for one that he’s already one of the greatest in the game. And his strengths play to everything we want in fantasy.

Shohei Ohtani tops the list of pitchers for obvious reasons, but the next nine or so are more jumbled than we might think. Taking a look at where Strider ranks among all pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched tells an important story:

• First in FIP (1.83), as the only pitcher under 2.00.
• First in SIERA (2.41).
• First in xFIP (2.30).
• First in xERA (2.39).
• First in K/9 (13.81) by almost two full strikeouts.
• Second in HR/9 (0.48) to the 0.41 of Jose Quintana.

Neutral flyball rate, neutral groundball rate, neutral BABIP, depressed line drive rate, high walks (but who cares?!?), and a more than acceptable 6.0% barrel rate allowed.

Strider’s ceiling isn’t somewhere in the top-eight. Strider’s ceiling is the best in baseball, even just extending him to 180 innings. Strider pitched 136.1 innings in 2022, so 180 might be conservative over 30 starts. And his per-inning brilliance can be repeatable and sticky.

What Strider’s doing is an extension of what he did in the minors with his 80-grade fastball. In 2021, Strider had 14.6 K/9 after 14.3 in his 2020 senior year of college.

There could be some chatter that his K/9 was bloated a bit by being a reliever for ~18% of this 2022 innings. What if we told those people that his 13.84 K/9 as a starter was actually greater than the 13.68 he posted as a reliever? Would they be convinced?

And then there are wins.

Strider’s not gonna win the volume argument over Corbin Burnes, Sandy Alcantara, Gerrit Cole, or Aaron Nola. He’s probably not getting 200 innings. But how many of them have a legitimate shot at 18 wins? Or even 15 wins, for that matter? Kyle Wright had 21 in 2022 for the Braves in 180.1 innings pitched, so should we set Strider’s ceiling at 20 wins?

Every time that I wanna call myself crazy for saving that Strider is worthy of a top-25 with top-10 potential, I look back to the data and the data don’t lie. It’s consistent with all of the hype with which he came up.