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I’ll add some comments in the AM!

• This doesn’t really apply to McLean today as he’s an auto start everywhere, but it’s worth noting that SDP is on fire of late, sitting 1st in wOBA vR over the L30 days. They’re also up to 10th vL after spending the vast majority of the year in the bottom 5 both ways. This will definitely be a bigger deal for their MIN series later in the week and might cost Zac Thornton an “x” for Tuesday’s board.
• Wacha gets a remarkably hobbled ATH team with Tyler Soderstrom joining the rest of their best players on the IL. They’re on the road all week so it’s easy to play against them in that situation even without all the injuries, but now we might start considering more arms against them at home next week and beyond.
• I really don’t mind running Snell in any format, even in Coors. I gave him the extra “x” this morning after just 2-x on the initial board. Yes, Coors can clip anyone at any time, but we’re talking probabilities and it’s hard for me to drum up any major concern about the Rockies, even at home. The strength of their lineup comes from the left side, too, which obviously plays into Snell even more.
• McClanahan comes off the IL for a bizarre 2-step where he’s facing BAL both times thanks to a wraparound series that has him finishing the weekend set today and then getting ’em again this weekend at BAL.
• Board might feel a bit thin when Perez, Pallante, and Bello (who isn’t even traditionally starting) hit the Top 10, but they’re all deserving. Perez has been flat out amazing all year with a 2.96 ERA/1.15 WHIP in 106.3 IP and is currently in the midst of an 18-IP scoreless streak. Even with a pair of Duds (5+ ER outing) mixed in, Pallante has a sparkling 2.88 ERA over his L12 starts, totaling 72 IP. He’s still skills-light with just a 9% K-BB but a groundball stud with a great defense behind him can outrun modest strikeout numbers more easily. There’s still high risk with any given start, but hard to get him outta the rotation these days. And Bello has been dialed in since going to an extended RP role, posting an 0.81 ERA and WHIP across 6 appearances (22.7 IP) with a 20% K-BB. He hasn’t been a traditional Follower in each, notching a 3-IP SV in one of them, but he is lined up to follow today.
• Castillo is coming off a beautiful outing v. CIN last time out (7 IP of 1-hit ball w/10 Ks), but let’s keep things in perspective and not immediately throw him back into every lineup. The two starts before this were both Duds and the recently outing only just got him back below 5.00 ERA for the year (4.96).
• I took Mlodzinski’s “x” from the initial post upon further review. He has a pair of bad 3 IP outings since returning to the rotation and it’s not like the DET offense is a rollover. I’d probably start Bratt over him (not that I’m interested in either).

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• Daily SP Chart archive
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• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

I’m dealing with a nasty neck strain the last couple days so I’m heading to bed early and will get some comments going in the morning (might be late-AM if I can’t get ’em done before Justin and I record the podcast).

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• Daily SP Chart archive
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• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
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Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

• It’s always scary to take an SP in Sacramento, but Rasmussen is amazing plus the A’s have been melting as the season wears on with their three best players (Kurtz, Shea, and Rooker — if you want to say Soderstrom is over Rooker, sure, but it’s splitting hairs and there’s no disputing Kurtz/Shea as 1/2) on the IL and Gelof just returned two days ago. The result of these injuries has been a precipitous drop in home wOBA vR from 5th through July 25th – first game without Langeliers – to just 24th since then.
• This is why I stay living in the gamelogs: Framber’s L30 is a 4.58 ERA/1.63 WHIP but if you lop off the meltdown at CHC (6 ER, 7 baserunners in 2 outs of work), he’s at 1.89/1.32 including a great outing against the aforementioned hobbled A’s (7 IP/2 ER). And yeah, 1.32 WHIP is still bad but it’s a reminder how much a bad start can spoil a sample. Over these last 4, it’s 2 gems, a decent one (5 IP/2 ER), and the Cubs Dud. Plus, he gets a CLE team that has struggled with lefties all year.
• Miller doesn’t quite have the crazy home/road splits of teammate Bryan Woo, but it’s still nearly 2 runs of ERA (2.09 home/4.02 road) and nearly 40 pts of WHIP (.75/1.14). And yet, he’s a full reco for the same reason Woo was yesterday – the Yankees offense is rouuuugh right now. Only Miller’s own M’s are worse in wOBA than NYY since Judge’s departure on June 1st. They’re only marginally better when looking at their work vR at home in that timeframe (up to a whopping 27th!).
• C’mon, don’t burn me, Baz! If you read me consistently, y’all know I’ve been skeptical on him for a minute but he’s shaved his ERA down to 3.76 on the year so if you can afford some WHIP risk (1.32), I’m good running him anywhere today. He’s coming off his best start of the year (8 IP/2 ER/9 Ks at TEX) and has been dialed in over his L7 in all: 2.55 ERA/1.19 WHIP/16% K-BB. MIN can certainly pop off as evidenced by their 8th ranked offense vR for the year, but they are floundering down at 25th over the last month.
• Like I said, SEA’s offense is similarly awful lately, hence a full reco on Warren despite his inconsistency since June 1st (not related to Judge, just happens to be when he dropped off after a nice April-May: 3.23 ERA/1.20 WHIP/19% K-BB thru May | 5.49/1.61/12% since then.
• Once we get out of the 3-x realm, things gets dodgy immediately. Can Soriano keep BOS cold after their blazing hot run? They have just 10 R in their last 4 games combined after averaging 10 the 5 before that and of course the 15-game W streak not being that far in the rear view.
• Was the Mahle trade a sneaky gem for ATL? Not just saying that because he debuted with 6 scoreless and 9 Ks at the sputtering Yankees, but because he’d stabilized a bit in his last 7 starts with SFG (3.79 ERA/1.18 WHIP/12% K-BB). Even his Dud at SDP in his last start as a Giant still had 9 Ks! I only gave 2-x, but he could be started in a 10’er against NYM.
• I was too aggressive with Junk’s original rank so I dropped him to 1-x. I’ve been aggressively running away from PIT vR for most of the year and I am open to taking a shot on him at home with PIT sitting 18th in wOBA over the last month but only in 15s as more of a Hail Mary. He has such a stark righty-lefty split (.860 OPS vL, +256 pts his vR mark) that he might be the perfect Rx to get them out of their funk.

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Comments in the AM… or early PM, but games don’t start until evening so we should be good!

• Skenes is now staring down the barrel of a 4.00+ ERA, but whattya gonna do, bench him? No. Never. Still has 162 Ks, 1.12 WHIP, and 9 Ws.
• How about my guy Sandoval?? I’ve been a longtime fan and longing for his departure from LAA to a more competent org and when he landed in BOS, I was super excited for him to get healthy (they took a shot on him during TJ). The bill will come due on that .386 BABIP if he doesn’t get it under control soon, but I wasn’t going to pass this juicy matchup.
• Pallante has had an impressive summer and really entire year when compared against expectations, but particularly nice of late. Even with a pair of Duds mixed in, he has a 3.14 ERA/1.11 WHIP in 66 IP since June 1st. Now, it comes with an 11% K-BB which does make him scary to trust in any given start as that .274 BABIP during this run & .278 on the season could regress at any moment (.287 league average). Though I say and it’s worth noting that Pallante has a strong 55% GB rate and quality defense behind him.
• Woo has a brutal home/road record, but I’m sticking with him due in large part to NYY second to only Woo’s very own Mariners in wOBA since Aaron Judge’s exit from the lineup on June 1st. He still has a 15% K-BB on the road which is still well below his 20% home mark, but above the 13% league average.
• I miiight be closer to 1.5-x for Young at MIN, but while they are a good offense in the aggregate, he is catching them at a good time given that they are just 22nd vR at home over the last month.
• Bradford’s only in his 2nd start off the IL (4.3 IP the first time) so he could still be on a tighter pitch count but I’ll take the shot at LAA.
• Snell/Lodolo both off the IL in case you want to see one before getting ’em back into the mix.

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I’ll take a closer look on some mid-tier guys in the morning, but a mostly straightforward shortened Monday board for us to attack.

3-x

• Scott, our posterboy today, has been great since returning: 3.25 ERA/1.17 WHIP/23% K-BB in 33.7 IP including a great outing and a meh outing against the same ATL team he faces today. (The great one is the more recent one).
• I’m not jumping off Mize just because of the brutal SDP debut. It happens, it was awful, and it still only moved his ERA to 3.04 on the year which underscores just how great he’d been prior to the meltdown.

2-x

• Wesneski maybe a bit shakier than I ranked here especially with SFG’s offense being mid-pack vR. I’m a big fan of Wes, but more for 27 when he’s further away from his surgery. I am starting the 2-step in weeklies with more confidence, though (v. SEA on the wknd).
• Cameron earned 2 for his recent performance (3.34/0.86/18% in last 35 IP) even with a trip to LAD today. They’re down to 12th vL in the L30 days which is still fine, but a good bit lower than their 6th season rank as they have been sputtering a bit of late as a team (2-8 in L10). LAD can always go off on someone so I get fading Cameron even with this encouraging outlook.
• Dobbins and Elder are pitching well on the season and of late, but still carry modest skills profiles (sub-15% K-BB for both) so they are susceptible to blowups, but I like both here. Philly, despite their record and presence of superstars, just never move up the wOBA board.
• Hughes might become my new Ryan Feltner – Rockies pitcher I desperately want out of COL to fully excel. I’d like to see more swing-and-miss in line with his MiLB figure this year (12% v. just 9% in MLB), but I don’t mind giving him a shot on the road.
• I might be overly cautious with Soroka off the IL getting Rockie Road (shoutout Nick Pollack!) so he’s more 1.5-x as I’m certainly open to running him in shallower formats if you’re comfortable w/guys immediately off the IL.

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• Zebby in for Prielipp, dropped to a shaky 1-x reco. as MIL is much better vR.
• Drohan broke his 4 QS streak in a tough 5 ER start v. COL but then immediately started a new streak with 6 IP/2 ER at LAA in his most recent outing.
• Really eager to see if Gausman can shave that .318 with one of the best defenses in baseball behind him now.
• Roki’s on another heater (2.25 ERA/1.00 WHIP/20% K-BB in 24 IP) and gets a great matchup to stay hot. Of course, his last bad outing was a 3 IP/6 ER Dud against SDP, one of the worst offenses in the league, so there are never any guarantees with him.
• Despite getting SDP today, I did drop Blanco down to 1-x just because we really haven’t seen a ton in his 3 starts off the IL.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
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• Daily SP Chart archive
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Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

• Weird as hell board. I’m not super confident in a #1, so I chose my guy Detmers: 21% K-BB for the year and 30% over the L30 days. Eury was close and actually had the #1 spot initially, but I balked with a trip to ATL. Woo’s excellent at home, but DET is raking right now so that’ll be a nice unstoppable force vs immovable object type of vibe.
• Maybe Scott should’ve been more of a contender for the #1 as he’s dominating lately (1.77 ERA/0.98 WHIP/25% K-BB in L30) and gets a good matchup with CLE. Hell, with that in mind, maybe Burke is underrated at 9. He’s been electric over the last month (1.05 ERA/0.66 WHIP/32% K-BB) but BOS has been sizzling so don’t let that 28 wOBA rank fool you, they’re 12th over the last month so I got cold feet pushing him too high. He’s still an easy must-start and would make a nice pivot in daily games if you want someone who won’t be highly rostered.
• Mize gets a strong landing spot with his new team, facing an ARI team that hasn’t done much vR. If he can stay healthy – a big IF with him – he could be a huge add for the Pads.
• Skenes he’s the lowest he’s been in… forever? Back-to-Back Duds (with 18 Ks in 9.3 IP, to be fair) and a 6.46 ERA/1.57 WHIP in his L7 (36.7 IP). I’ve been slow to this move as I didn’t even consider a tangible move down back in May and then held firm in June, feeling comforted by his 2.84 ERA/1.17 WHIP/27% K-BB run in the first four starts of the month. That last one of the month where he had the bad 2nd inning (4 ER) sink him v. CIN has started this tailspin. And we’re still talking “tailspin” relative to his obscene heights because even in the midst of this, he ran off three in a row with a 2.49 ERA/1.22 WHIP/22% K-BB against three playoff-positioned teams (ATL, MIL, at CLE). I grant that 22% K-BB is almost pedestrian for him, but let’s remember that’s a Top 10 mark on the year (11 guys hit the mark if you round Luzardo up — and of course, I do as a hater of decimals in fantasy baseball percentages).
• Harrison, you know my spiel on the IL returners – everyone has their personal way of handling guys off the IL so just follow that. Some are firm “never start” and I think that’s likely a winning proposition in the aggregate. It’s always been case-by-case for me and I nervously ran Harrison in the Main Event. I’d have been more scared with a righty against PIT in this scenario but they can clip lefties (up to 17th in L30), too. I’m just so in the bag for Harrison that I don’t want to miss a start of his so here we go!!
• Will likely add some more in the AM!

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• Daily SP Chart archive
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I’m wiped after a pair of Trade Deadline shows (with Nick Pollack here and then a Sleeper & The Best ep. that should be up by the morning for audio and can be watched here) so I’ll drop some comments in the morning!

• Skubal debut in LA… I’m sure everyone will be tuned in as there was absolutely zero pushback or consternation about it! Btw, people can be annoyed with the deal and how the Dodgers get everyone, but taking it out on Skubal who was simply traded by his team is silly.
• I won’t pretend it was the consensus but I didn’t think any pushback on Minnesota keeping Ryan had merit. They’re very much in the mix, were clearly buying, and still have another year of Ryan to consider dealing him this winter/next year if things go south.
• I have no idea if Milwaukee offered Henderson in the River Ryan role of a Skubal trade, but if so, I’d have rather gone that route. But it’s pure speculation, we have no idea who Milwaukee offered (or if it’s out there, I haven’t seen it). I wanted them to go hard for Skubal not just so my Tigers get what I perceive to be a better return (if Hendo was in it) but also so the Dodgers didn’t get another elite piece.
• Maybe Jared Jones is more firmly back than I originally thought. I preached some caution on a couple recent pod appearances where he was getting promoted as a 2H breakout because I didn’t want to get caught up using a small sample to think someone is fully back from TJ. It is 5 starts and 27 IP where Jones has been completely dialed: 2.00 ERA/.63 WHIP/28% K-BB. Even if I still have a bit of residual caution on thinking he’s fully back, he has done enough to be a rotation lock for the foreseeable future. He gets a 2-step this week (NYM on the wknd) and even if this didn’t go super well, I still think he’d be a firm 3-x next week v. BOS whereas in the throes of my panic, I might’ve run him to the bench at the first sign of trouble.

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