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Afternoon updates:

• Senga coming off the IL and Scott headed on it (hip). Don’t start Senga until we see something and probably 2-3 good starts worth of that “something”
• Rasmussen isn’t risk-free at LAD but he’s just too good for me to be concerned by his matchups
• Commenter TJ brought up some King concerns for 10-teamers and it’s not completely unfounded with a 6.45 ERA/1.39 WHIP in his L4 starts but I’m not totally off him based on this run. ATH and WAS got to him the most, allowing 9 ER in 9.3 IP. ATH beat him straight up, but 4 of the 5 at WAS came in the 7th inning of what had been a solid start to that point (outside of the meager 2 Ks). He went 6 IP/4 ER v. NYM which falls shy of a QS but certainly isn’t a terrible outing. And then his most recent was 6.7 IP/3 ER v. CIN. Despite the ERA, I love that he’s gone 6+ in 3 of the 4. I will concede he’s not a must-start in 10s given the lighter skills (12% K-BB) compared to his recent years and a .246 BABIP that is rife for some more regression, but he remains startable against an OK Cardinals lineup. I do think 10-team managers have to think deeply about the ATL/LAD 2-step he’s set up for next week as they could get that BABIP regression going in earnest. Coming back around on this to say I’m convinced to drop King a bit after another “bleh” outing (4.3 IP/3 ER/8 BR/1 K)… in fact “bleh” is taking him off the hook a bit, it was bad. He’ll now be in the 1-2x range depending on matchup and that 2-step next week now becomes a potential cut point for 10-teamers since I can’t imagine you’d want to use it. Good call, TJ! 
• Holmes is more of a Wins chase and with SFG’s recent offensive surge, I downgraded him to 1-x.
• I want to love Perkins and even picked him up in my Main Event league on June 7th but it’s been tough to confidently start him. I didn’t even consider Vegas last week and then labored on this week’s 2-step — both at home — before eventually slotting him in. I’d likely skip this in daily moves leagues before jumping in this weekend against LAA.

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I’m headed to Houston to watch the Tigers game and staying overnight so I’m going to load Tuesday’s board now as-is and it’ll run tomorrow night. I’m sure there’ll be changes, but it’ll be easier for me to address those in comments as opposed to finding time to put together the board on the road.

• I was stunned Imanaga went into Coors and dominated like that. He should be able to pull it off again as long as the wind isn’t blowing out 15 mph or something crazy.
• Core skills were better for Melton last time out with 5 K/0 BB in 5 IP, but 4 HRs (all solo) soured the outing a bit. He nabbed the Win, though, and still has sparkling ratios while he figures out the strikeouts and walks.
• This certified Dustin May Skeptic is on the train! He’s finally missing bats with consistency, posting a 3.25 ERA/0.97 WHIP in his L6 with 21% K-BB and 13% SwStr supporting the 28% K rate.
• Few teams have a wider start/sit range based on pitcher handedness than Arizona, sitting 28th vR and earning Ureña a full reco. Meanwhile, they sit 5th vL leaving me starting only the very best southpaws against them.
• A nightmare inning in each of his last 2 have pushed Teng’s ERA more than a full run to 3.71 and it seemed to be inevitable with his elevated walk rate. He skated on an 18% BB rate in his 3 starts before the struggles allowing just 3 ER in 16 IP. DET is hitting better of late, but is walking at a below average clip so they might not be able to take advantage of Teng’s problem.
• Jones had a solid 4-inning outing v. LAD but heading Sacramento is a different story and I’m definitely a bit nervous to run this one. He gets a trip to COL this weekend for the other part of his 2-step so I wouldn’t even necessarily justify this in a weekly setup.
• The PHI offense just keeps stinking so Gusto has some juice to stream.
• Alvarez sank himself at SFG with 5 BB but they could only cash in two of his 10 base runners. I still like plenty of what I’m seeing here and think this could be a successful 2-step (at TBR this wknd).

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They’re working on a transformer here so the power is going out intermittently this morning.

• I didn’t realize ATH was in Vegas all week, so that Jump reco was misguided at best. Easy no-go there.
• Ben Brown has been pushed back to tomorrow.
• I’m never particularly excited to start Baz, but it’s hard to envision a better matchup
• Leiter/Imai are matchup recos, though they’ve been passable of late (mid-4.00s ERA in L30 for both) but Imai’s 1.17 WHIP is a good bit better than Leiter’s 1.27 in that same span.
• I know Sandy had an amazing 2-step last week, but this is a very difficult matchup so I don’t think he’s a must in 10s. His platoon split plays right into their strong lefty lineup, too. Not even sure you have to run this in 12s. I got burned for being proactive with him last week and actually skipped the 2-step. Of course, I put him back in this week to eat what will surely be a flameout. 🤣

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Justin Wrobleski is still running a tightrope with that 11% K-BB rate, but the ratios remain excellent and of course, being a Dodger puts him in line for a Win every time out as he’s racked up seven so far. Pittsburgh is much worse versus lefties with a 27% K rate that sits 2nd to only Colorado, but can Wrobo take advantage? He has just a 16% K rate, the 4th-lowest mark among qualified starters. He is spamming four-seamers this year with a 51% usage rate, 6th-highest in the game, and it’s down 2 mph to 93.9 mph. Last year he threw even more fastballs, but they were split among four-seamers (29%), sinkers (21%), and cutters (14%). The curve and changeup were show-me pitches last year and remain so this year.

You don’t get a 2.62 ERA with these skills without some “run-hot”. He’s 10th in BABIP (.243) and 1st in HR/FB (4%). Now just because someone is running well in those categories doesn’t mean it’s always pure dumb luck happening to them but there are certain thresholds where the combo of stats just can’t hold without something giving. In this case, I do think Wrobo’s ERA will be headed upward, I’m just not sure it starts tomorrow given Pittsburgh’s struggles with southpaws. I have him as a Team Streamer with only scary matchup in the near future. From here, he’s lined up for v. TBR, at MIN, and at ATH. The first two are bottom half wOBAs v. lefties but ATH is 5th overall and 1st at home. I’d strongly consider skipping that one.

• I’m still not totally sold on Zebby with his 1.5 HR9 but he has 4 QS in 5 starts. The fifth was a 7 ER Dud, though, and that’s my concern with him. It’s a wide range of outcomes, but enough good to start earning a little more trust.
• I had some interest in Dobbins at times last year with Boston and I’m happy to see him back starting after some strong extended RP outings.
• Feltner and Cabrera are going to burn me for even looking for upside in Coors. Maybe I’m overreacting to Wednesday’s 3-2 game. By the way, COL is going for the sweep! Feltner has been outright awesome of late with a pair of 6 IP gems since returning while Cabrera had a brutal return off the IL with 8 ER
• Montero could be making his last start for a bit with Skubal, Mize, and Verlander on the verge of returning.
• Pérez has bee a revelation for the Braves (3.02 ERA/1.06 WHIP) but this is a risky matchup with the sweet swinging White Sox on tap.
• Kelly’s full season stats stinks but his 4.18 ERA/1.14 WHIP over the L30 days are more indicative of who we can expect him to be going forward now that he appears fully healthy.
• Phillips is a pure matchup play if you want to take advantage of ARI. Don’t get enamored with the 2.08 ERA, the 1.36 WHIP will ensure that heads upward.

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• I know there’s been some consternation with Skenes as he’s been less godlike than normal lately but I kept him at #1 in my recent rankings update as I didn’t find the 4-start blip to be actionable. I wouldn’t quibble with someone slotting in a new #1, but for me he holds for now. He’ll calm any and all fears with a gem here and I’m eager to see how he handles one of the best offenses going.
• Burns draws today’s top spot and ascended to Ace status in my latest update as the #7 overall arm. He is truly a 2.0 version of Hunter Greene, improving both the HR and BB rates that plagued Greene early on in his career. Burns is up at 1.2 HR9 this year (after a 1.0 flat in last year’s debut), but Greene sat at 1.6 in his first two years before improving. It took Greene three seasons to post a BB rate under 9% while Burns is toting an 8% mark right now (not a huge difference there, admittedly). Imagine if Cincy can get these two clicking together.
• Cease is returning from a hamstring injury that cost him a couple weeks but he did make a rehab start and I’m willing to get him right back in. As I always mention with these, every fantasy manager has their own way of handling first starts off the IL, so do what works best for you. I do consider the injury type in my start/sit with arm-related injuries being more worrisome. That isn’t to say a hammy can’t hamper you, just that I’m more inclined to get back in right away on non-arm related issues.
• I believe Melton is quite a bit better than his 4% K-BB and having watched all three of his starts this year, I can confirm he has pitched like someone with 4-5x that mark, including back-to-back long outings of 7 and 8 IP where he allowed just 3 ER on 10 H and 3 BB but with just 6 Ks. The dam will break if he doesn’t improve, though, as a .175 BABIP will only hold for so long, particularly when you’re allowing that much contact. The Tigers are on the verge of potentially a trio of arms returning (Skubal-Mize-JV), including their ace, but I really hope Melton’s job isn’t threatened. With Jack Flaherty pitching better of late (26% K-BB in L3) and his lofty contract – which does matter whether we like it or not – he’s unlikely to be unseated, either. I wonder if they consider a 6-man to ease Skubal and Verlander back, shifting Montero to the pen and going Skubal-Framber-Mize-Flaherty-JV-Melton.
• I wasn’t sold on May during his April rebound as he worked off the ugly 13 ER from his first two starts with a 1.95 ERA in his final four starts of the month as they came with a modest 12% K-BB. But his last 30 IP have drawn my interest as his 3.90 ERA is powered by a 1.00 WHIP and 20% K-BB, including at least 7 Ks in each of his last 3 (and 4 of 5). He has nearly doubled his swinging strike rate, going from 7% to 13%, and done so by dialing up his cutter usage 10 pts to 29%. A great matchup here gives him a chance to stay hot and then folds into a potential 2-step next week v. SDP and at KCR.
• I couldn’t see myself sitting Kyle Harrison in any format yesterday, even knowing the dangers of Vegas. But after seeing this game… and still seeing it in fact, as I’m watching the 12th inning while writing this… you will not see a single “x” for the rest of that series. Ginn, Perkins for ATH and Gasser, Sproat for MIL will be nowhere near any lineups. Meanwhile, daily players are left with an interesting choice between stacking Vegas or Coors.
• Holmes is predominantly a Win chase. The White Sox are no joke as a lineup so they could clip him as their strength is homers and he has a 1.7 HR9, but he has managed to avoid letting the longball sink of late w/a 2.91 ERA in his L4 despite five bombs. This is probably more a 1.5-x (maybe even 1) reco as I look deeper into it. If you’re OK chasing Wins at the potential expense of ratios, feel free to run him.
• I’ve been tracking Alvarez the last few weeks as he’s been stretched out into a starter. He got his first traditional start last time out and fell just an out shy of a strong 5 IP (4.7 IP/1 ER/5 base runners/5 Ks) while reaching a season-high 82 pitches. He also lines up for a 2-step next week v. KCR and at TBR, so don’t be afraid to stash him for that even if you skip this one.
• I miiiight have still given Cecconi 1-x if Judge was in the lineup as he’s put up a decent 3.09 ERA/1.28 WHIP/14% K-BB in his L6 including a gem against the Yanks last time out (though they were already Judge-free at that point).

If you have questions on anyone else, drop a comment!

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It’s a pretty straightforward board today with some easy locks at the top and few decisions on the streaming front.

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I’ll be in the comments answering questions and discussing changes!

Focus more on tier differences over rankings differences within a given tier. Sure, the top and bottom of a tier can be discussed, but 7-10 rankings within the same tier isn’t a huge split to me and comparing them would likely come down to short-term matchups.

Full Rankings Without Tiers

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SP rankings out todayyyyy. I know I’d said Thursday, but I blame this new game for distracting me. It’s called Chasin’ 117 and it’s amazing!! It’s not really why I didn’t have the rankings out yesterday, but it is undoubtedly a new obsession. These games are apparently on fire across the internet with basketball and football having one, too. Say goodbye to your free time! Not an ad, just a mega fan of these!

•  I know Framber’s ratios aren’t great right now but I don’t see it as actionable and I’m still starting him everywhere. I always link him and Logan Webb as lefty-righty versions of each other and now they’re even struggling in unison but just when we started getting nervous about Webb, he dropped 7 IP of 1-hit ball at MIL to reassure us. Hopefully Framber can do something similar against SEA and their 30th ranked offense vL.
• Sasaki had a wonderful May (3.20 ERA/1.00 WHIP/19% K-BB) and has risen to must-start status for now.
• Detmers has a 61% LOB rate creating a chasm between his 4.63 ERA and 3.31 SIERA, but I’m encouraged by the 21% K-BB that matches what he did out of the bullpen last year. Don’t get daunted by the ERA, you’re still getting a 1.16 WHIP and 29% K and while he might not start his ERA improvement tonight at LAD, I have confidence that he’s better than a mid-4.00s guy.
• Griffin has been a revelation for WSN but the D’Backs slam lefties so I’m definitely open to skipping in 10s and could even see some sits in 12s.
• Cabrera is coming off the IL but it’s from a blister so I’m more open to running him right away. The lack of a 3-x reco is more due to his modest output this year than concerns about first start off the IL in this case.
• Rocker always makes me nervous but this is a good streaming spot for him. Don’t get completely duped by his 2.30/1.17 over the L30 days as it comes with an 18% K and 4% K-BB. The matchup is driving my interest here.
• Ray hasn’t made it 5 IP in any of his L4 after posting a 2.76 ERA through his first 8 starts. I’d still reserve before cutting in a lot of situations, but he doesn’t have to be in your starting lineup right now.

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