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About Last Night: a few notes about some Monday SPs

• What the hell was that, Kyle Harrison?! Yeah, CHC is #1 in wOBA vL so there were no guarantees, but I didn’t think he’d hit a full meltdown like that.
• George Kirby is a home-0nly starter the rest of the way… if that, tbh. We can’t keep banging our heads against the wall with him.
• A couple of HRs, including a 3-run shot, tanked Jackson Jobe’s outing and now through 5 starts, the 2 Duds have easily outweighed the two good ones and one decent one. This is a perfect microcosm for why I’m so cautious with TJ returners. See another JJ – Jared Jones – for a larger sample of TJ returner inconsistency. I still had Jobe as a 3-x, so I’m not pounding my chest here, more excoriating myself for not following my normal skepticism of this player class.
• deGrom maintained his 1 up, 1 down pattern, dominating ATH… can he break the streak and hold up v. TBR this weekend?

Tuesday’s Starters

• Luzardo had 4 Duds through his first 8 starts but allowed 4 ER in the other 4 starts combined so while frustrating, the poor starts weren’t really actionable and those who just kept him locked in the rotation have been rewarded handsomely: 2.12 ERA/1.02 WHIP/23% K-BB in 119.3 (19 starts) since the last of those Duds.
• I still think Melton has the stuff to be a legitimate ace as he develops but the Ks were back down again in August after a surge in July, giving him more of a Sandy Alcantara feel right now which is still great but short of a true fantasy ace.
• Remember when I floated the idea of Gav Williams dropping a 20-K game at LAA last week? That was cute… instead, he had his worst start of the year as he failed to finish 2 innings. (1.3 IP/5 ER)
• I really thought we’d see the other shoe drop with E-Rod as he had a 2.29 ERA/4.77 SIERA split in the first half and it seemed like the 88% LOB and .247 BABIP were ripe for regression. The regression has in fact come, with a 73% and .306 in the 2H, respectively, but his 0.95 HR9 is all the way down to 0.38 (6th best in 2H) and has masked a lot of the impact of that regression.
• PIT has slammed righties on the year (2nd in wOBA), but they’re just 28th in the 2H so I’m no longer running from them as much with non-ace righties. That doesn’t matter as much today as we’d be starting Webb even if they were still a top 5 offense against ’em, but just wanted to note that as we move through the final month. That would include guys like Landen Roupp, Blade Tidwell, and Walbert Ureña who draw PIT this week.
• I won’t blame anyone for skipping Bradish in Coors especially on the heels on a pair of rough outings (at STL, v. NYY). I don’t want to be overly influenced by Monday’s 2-1 game, either. A low scoring game one night doesn’t mean it can’t be 10-9 in the 4th inning the next in that park!
• I’m nervous to jump in on GrayRod, but he’s been pretty good lately with a 3.07 ERA/1.21 WHIP/17% K-BB in his L6 (32.7 IP). He has a couple meh 4 IP starts in the mix, but the other 4 starts have been really good, including a pair of 7 IP gems. NYY’s modest offense helps, too. Walby cooked ’em on Monday night!
• It might be too hard to get away from Woo in 15s, but as I mentioned with Kirby, he probably needs to be a home-only starter at this juncture: 2.63 ERA/0.79 WHIP at home | 5.96 ERA/1.38 WHIP on the road.
• Learned my lesson from Harrison, let’s avoid these Cubs right now.

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• Tolle has allowed more than 3 ER just once over his L9 outings, posting a beautiful 2.65 ERA/1.04 WHIP/28% K-BB in 51 IP. Today, he gets the 30th ranked offense versus lefties.
• Any concerns for Harrison after the shellacking at SDP have been tamped down by 2 strong starts since, allowing just 1 ER in 10 IP with 13 Ks. CHC is scary, especially with how dialed in PCA is right now, but Harrison doesn’t leave the rotation for me.
• A gem last time out from Kirby (7.7 IP/1 ER/9 Ks) inspires some confidence, but man oh man it’s been a grind this year. I mentioned ahead of his last start that SEA’s defense is a big reason behind his struggles and obviously one good start doesn’t fix that. I can’t see benching him despite the bumpy year, though.
• deGrom’s been on a 1 up/1 down pattern over his last 8 starts but it’s so hard to take those sort of runs seriously. If anything, it just underscores a pitcher’s start-to-start inconsistency and there are no guarantees the pattern will continue meaning we can’t expect a good outing just because the last one was bad. And yet, I still have him at 3-x as he’s facing the battered A’s lineup at home. I might have more caution if it was in Sacramento, but this is the right setup for him to continue to this weird pattern.
• A 9 ER Dud v. LAA two starts ago has saddled Lambert with a 6.12 ERA over the month but that’s literally his only bad start during the run. In fact, it’s the only start where he’s allowed more than 2 ER in his L10 and he did rebound from the LAA outing with a solid 5.7 IP/2 ER/5 Ks at NYY.
• I’ve got some nerves about this Nola rebirth as the 2.63 ERA comes with a 1.26 WHIP over his L6 starts but the run also comes with a 29% K rate and of course his residence on a strong PHI team gives him a decent W probability (though he is just 2-2 during this run).
• COL is just 11th in wOBA at home since the break giving me more confidence to run Bradish in Coors today. I’ll never give managers a hard time for skipping Coors with non-aces especially if you’re protecting ratios against the meltdown start (which Bradish had last time out with 7 ER at STL).
• Ureña, not Mitch Farris, going for LAA. While NYY got Belly back and Luis Garcia Jr. has been excellent with them, they remain a pretty non-threatening offense without Judge. Ureña’s ERA is due for some regression given how many base runners he allows but even if he’s more high 3.00s than high-2.00s, I’m still comfortable using him v. NYY today. 

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Pardon me for no Thursday board. I was light on sleep Wednesday night and then crashed after my morning stream. I will have some comments in the morning on Friday’s star-studded board.

• Any Tigers fan who boos Skubal tonight is a stone cold loser. He was traded and it’s not like he demanded to be moved. Anything but overwhelming love for him would be really out of pocket to me.
• McClanahan catches a hot hitting SDP team (9th wOBA vL in L30) but after 5 scoreless on 74 pitches last time out – his 2nd start off the IL – I’m confident installing back into every lineup.
• The erosion of the Nationals offense has been a tough watch. Trades of Curtis Mead and Luis Garcia were one thing, but then James Wood’s injury and the absolute worst month of the year for CJ Abrams has them sitting just 26th in wOBA versus over the last month and down to 14th on the season. The 4th for the year going into August! I say all that and Eury was just fine against them last time out (5 IP/1 ER/3 BB/4 Ks) but there’s a chance for a big outing for sure.
• Classic TJ returner season for Jones. RIGHT when you get comfortable with them as a must start, they hit the rug pull! After a nasty July, Jones has made it 5 IP just once in 4 August tries, was pasted for 8 ER v. NYM, and was lucky to survive LAD with 4 IP/2 ER given his 5 BB. Predictably, it’s been spotty command and control behind his struggles with a 14% BB rate and 2.3 HR9 over his L4. Like I said, classic TJ returner! All that said, though, and he’s still catching a relatively high slot in the 3-x tier as a trip to STL provides a good chance to get right. Another major struggle here would make him a tough start anywhere next week, though. (Note: he was moved down from 8th to 12th after the original post).
• I remain terrified of anyone pitching in Sacramento but Lopez has simply been far too good over his L7 to sit anywhere: 2.36 ERA/1.05 WHIP/22% K-BB in 39 IP, including 4 home starts.
• 2 great, 2 awful starts for Mize with SDP so far, including an early departure after slipping down the stairs between innings and rolling his ankle in his last one. He’s said to be recovered from that and ready to go today, but with a tough matchup on tap, I can see some skips… especially if you’re protecting ratios and a Dud would really hurt you.
• Brown certainly hasn’t been the frontliner we expected for a while now, toting a 4.41 ERA/1.41 WHIP combo over his L9 with a paltry 7% K-BB. He’s allowed multiple BB and 1 HR in each of his L5, too, thus taking him out of any must-start status. I still have a hard time getting away from him in deeper formats, but 10-team managers shouldn’t feel obligated to run him.
• It’s only 1 spot, but Painter should be ahead of Bradford on matchup alone, especially as Bradford has been “meh” lately while Painter is surging: 3.62 ERA/1.06 WHIP/14% K-BB. He did suffer a Dud at MIN thanks to a 4-run first inning but he stabilized and dropped four strong IP after that and then bounced back in the next start (his most recent) for his best start of the year: 7 IP/1 ER/0 BB/8 Ks.
• Sandoval rebounded from his Dud at PIT with 5.7 IP/2 ER/2 BB/6 Ks v. SFG, but it was his 6th straight game with at least 2 BB. This ostensibly should be a good matchup for him despite heading to NYY. Their lefty-laden lineup should play into Sandy’s strengths, despite what a disgusting .586 BABIP vL has done to his numbers this year. That’s clearly small sample flukiness to me so I’m willing to run him in some spots tonight.
• I would still be pretty nervous to run Anderson or Sugano, but they are catching their otherwise tough opponents at the right moment with LAD 25th and ATL 29th in wOBA vR over the L30 days.

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• SFG switched from Roupp to Webb, nothing changes on our end. In fact, I’m more confident in Webb than Roupp.

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• C’mon baseball, let something play out exactly like it should. Let us see Williams strike out 20 Angels on Tuesday! He’s running a 40% K rate in the L30 days and 32% for the year while LAA’s 25% team K rate is tied for the highest in the league.
• King is getting PIT at a perfect time with their normally righty-mashing offense in a lull, sitting just 21st in wOBA over the L30 days. King has run an essentially neutral split this year (.004 pts of OPS difference favoring his vR work) so the lefty-heavy Pirates lineup doesn’t threaten him like it does so many other righties this year.
• I still can’t envision myself benching Skenes for fear of missing of a gem. By the same token, I can’t keep banging my head against the wall and leaving him top 3 in the face of a 6.59 ERA/1.68 WHIP/17% K-BB in his L5 starts. The funny thing is that 17% K-BB is still pretty good and a level many pitchers would strive for during their hot streaks. And yet, when the bar is set at a career 24% level, it is still disappointing to see even an above average mark like 17% (league avg. for SPs is 14%). Reminder that he won three straight with a 2.45 ERA/1.22 WHIP/21% K-BB right before this streak. Yes, the 1.22 WHIP was indicative that he wasn’t back back but his good starts are still useful for anyone rostering him.
• I’ve grown so comfortable with Thornton so quickly that I might be overrating him a touch. I’m still good running him anywhere even in a tough MIL start, but he should probably be a bit lower in the 3-x ranks thanks to relatively modest K% and K-BB% rates.
• Jobe has already shown the volatility of returning from TJ – elite in the first start, a disaster inning unraveled the second start, and then a solid rebound in the third start, though still 3 BB showing the spotty command and control which is a TJ Returner hallmark. The upside keeps him a 3-x reco, but any given start can be a crashout for him which is just part of the deal with TJRs.
• You don’t have to be deep into the second- and third-level stats to realize Ureña is running hot with his 2.80 ERA. The 1.24 WHIP and 12% BB (which are, of course, related) make it tough to maintain such a low mark, but he is helping himself survive the control with exceptional hit and HR suppression (.197 AVG, 0.56 HR9). The cold water there is that sustaining Top 10 BABIP and HR/FB rates isn’t easy, especially with an average 23% K%. Add it all up and he’s walking a bit of tightrope as the 4.42 SIERA preaches some caution, but I don’t think the concerns rise to level of benching him. I’m sure some 10-team rotations are deep enough to not need him, but getting him out of a 12- or 15-team rotation seems remarkably difficult barring some unexpected depth.
• I did struggle keeping Kirby at 3-x given his season. I’m a longtime fan and want to believe this is a blip year, but last year was supposed to be the blip year. In fact, his ERA is actually a click better this year, down from 4.21 to 4.18 but the WHIP has surged from 1.19 to an ugly 1.36. A career-high .336 BABIP is likely not entirely his fault when we see how poorly SEA ranks defensively this year: dead-last in Fielding Run Value at -42. So sure, some of these struggles probably don’t lay at Kirby’s feet directly, but he still has this same defense behind him and we might just have to downgrade him for at least the remainder of 2026. Hell, maybe just I do as I’m sure many already have. As such, he was dropped to 2-x after this post went up. Consider his ranking swapped with Bradley.
• Speaking of Bradley, I don’t love throwing anyone at ATH but they are SO beaten up with injuries that I’m making an exception. We just saw Zebby dominate (7 IP/6 H/1 ER/1 BB/7 Ks) and while that doesn’t guarantee Bradley will do the same, he’s far more trustworthy than Matthews.

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• Messick’s first full season has been fantastic and getting better as it goes on. After a bit of a June Swoon (“swoon” relative to his elite level as 2 gems couldn’t completely counterbalance 3 meh outings, saddling him with a 4.26 ERA), he’s 1 of 5 arms with a sub-2.00 ERA since July 4th, posting a 1.88 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 48 IP. He has a chance for a massive week with a home date against KCR lined up for the weekend.
• Cavalli was a chic breakout pick for some this year as he was finally healthy and ready to show off his prospect pedigree off at the big league level after an interesting 10-start run down the stretch in 2025. It was a wobbly start as a meager 1.77 WHIP and 6% K-BB suggested his 4.22 ERA should be even worse after his first five starts. He then closed the month with back-to-back 10-K games which has spurred a fantastic 22-start run during which he’s posted a 3.07 ERA/1.14 WHIP/23% K-BB, only once allowing more than 3 ER (4 ER at ARI on Jun. 7). The run is currently bookended by two double-digit K outings as he’s racked up 10 and 11 Ks during 14 scoreless innings to go with initial pair that launched him in late-April. Add it all up and he’s SP28 on the year now.
• Ashcraft, Alcantara, and Gilbert have deceptively tougher matchups as SDP (3rd), BOS (1st), and PHI (6th) are all well ahead of their season ranks in wOBA over the L30 days. It doesn’t rise to the level of sitting them in any leagues but could impact your interest in them for daily fantasy games.
• After an excellent debut with CHC, Gausman hasn’t reached 5 IP in either of last two starts but this feels like a get-right spot at ARI as they are generally much better vL, though they have been rising vR of late sitting 14th over the last month.
• Klassen sputtered through two outings back in April with 5 BB in both (31% BB) and while the walks haven’t gone away in 3 August starts since returning (12%), the surface results have been incredible in spite of the wobbly control with a 1.59 ERA/1.06 WHIP in 17 IP. It’s still just a 10% K-BB, too, as we haven’t seen the Ks really dial up so just know this is still a scary start anywhere. This isn’t a fence-sit or anything, I’m fully on board running him, but we’re going in eyes wide open that if the BBs are up, he can get smoked.
• Longtime readers will remember my yearly Urquidy interest for a good bit there. He was someone Eno put on my radar and I became an instant fan of, enjoying plenty of his 2021-22 seasons while then hoping to recapture the magic around a myriad of injuries since 2023. He’s back on the radar after a brilliant start for the White Sox in Wrigley with 6 scoreless IP and 8 Ks against 0 BB. It’s one start, so let’s keep it in perspective, but it’s a 2-step v. TEX and at MIN on a team where he can earn some Ws with non-elite outings so he was a chase guy in 15s and he’s on the radar for 12s.

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I wonder how many teams that drafted Ian Seymour are still benefitting from the fruits of his summer labor. A popular late round breakout pick after 57 solid innings to close out last year, Seymour didn’t make the rotation out of camp and promptly allowed 5 ER without getting an out in his season debut. If that didn’t lead to a rash of cuts, his residence in the bullpen for the first 2+ months almost certainly did in most leagues. In mid-June they started mixing him in for starts and extended follows (4, 5 IP in 2 starts; 3.3, 6.7 IP in 2 follows) and since July, he’s had a traditional starter’s workload with 7 starts and 2 long follows. In that stretch, he’s put up a 3.59 ERA/1.03 WHIP/25% K-BB, leading to 6 Ws in 13 appearances.

While I thought he had the workload established to avoid needing the ramp up management (143 in 2025; 145 in 2024), I did still think that Tampa Bay would take that approach. From my March SP rankings:

I’m a big Ian Seymour fan for 2026, just not necessarily 2026 drafts as he’s very likely to be an in-season reinforcement for the Rays so unless your league is setup to favor holding a guy for 4-6 weeks (Draft Champs, deep reserve AL-only or giant mixed lg), just keep tabs on him for a the call-up and be ready to pounce. He’s got an excellent changeup as his A-pitch and then four supporting pitches to craft the rest of his arsenal from, which makes sense when you throw 92 mph (multiple options instead of raw fastball dominance). After some early struggles as a pro (11%), his control took a leap in 2024 and has now sat around 7% for 288 IP, and he’s never had issues missing bats despite the lack of velocity (double-digit SwStr rates at every stop but one as a pro and that one sub-10% was for 4 IP). Seymour is likely their 4th best SP right now behind Ras, Pep, and Shane Mc, but in typical Rays fashion, they will likely try to get some innings out of Steven Matz and Nick Martinez at the frontend of the season before turning to the young lefty. They shouldn’t because after 143 IP last year, he can go a full season, but they almost certainlyyyyy will so plan accordingly.

Seymour’s excellent changeup helps him profile as the rare lefty who decimates righties (204-point reverse platoon OPS split: .622 vR, .826 vL) and the opposition almost protects him from his weakness, too, by stacking righties against him in hopes of getting a platoon edge that never seems to come their way. The lefty struggles are heavily tied to his 8 HRs allowed in 145 PA, compared to 7 vR in 254 PA. I still see a 25% K-BB (42 Ks, 6 BB) against lefties as a major reason to believe he will get better against them even if he regresses some against righties (a still-healthy 19% K-BB, but a .252 BABIP that won’t necessarily hold firm). If he continues to excel down the stretch, his draft price will skyrocket and he should be positioned to be a full-time starter out of camp for Tampa Bay in 2027. Does the original Seymour drafter still have him in your league?

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I haven’t fallen asleep before posting in a while, but I crashed after the Tigers game. I’m adding comments right now (as this goes up at 8 AM CT), but wanted to get the base post up right away since I’m late.

Pfaadt has returned to the majors with a vengeance and some of the best success of his career. A rough start in the rotation led to a role change but the bullpen didn’t go any better and eventually saw him demoted to a Triple-A in early-June. After three “opens” (they were starts, but all under 4 IP), he returned with 5.3 strong IP v. SFG, netting his first W of the year followed by an even sharper 5 IP outing at SDP that included 6 Ks/0 BB. Given the offenses in question, I remained skeptical. A solid start at LAD (5.3 IP/2 ER, but just 2 Ks) resulted in a 3rd straight W and he’d eventually run the streak up to 5 straight Ws. I still wasn’t sold that it was a transformation, citing his 200-pt. platoon split in the August 3rd SP Chart.

Now nine starts into his return, Pfaadt has certainly shown it’s more than a hot run. He’s even made it into the 7th inning in each of his last four, completing it three times, running his record up to 7-0 in the process. There’s at least a souvenir cup-sized of cold water to throw on this with a meager 14% K rate that gives him an out of place 11% K-BB to go with the incredible 1.16 ERA/0.89 WHIP. Premium control (3% BB), a .237 BABIP, and just 1 HR allowed (0.2 HR9) have overrun the need for strikeouts, at least for now. Let’s be honest, only the walk rate is truly skill-based, meaning the other two are ripe for regression. More 4-seamers (+10 pts to 30% usage compared to pre-demotion) are leading his 3-headed fastball approach (4-seamer, sinker, cutter) along with a huge surge in changeup usage (+13 pts to 22%) making him formidable against lefties for the first time… ever? Southpaws have just a .218 wOBA against Pfaadt since returning, down from .405, while he’s also gotten better versus righties, dropping from .284 to .227 wOBA.

Pitchers can succeed for long periods without a ton of strikeouts. It’s not the best day to cite him after a 6 ER Dud last night, but Nick Martinez has a 3.05 ERA/1.14 WHIP this year despite just an 11% K-BB in 142 IP. He’s one of nine guys with a sub-3.50 ERA and K-BB no higher than 12% in at least 100 IP. Only three of them have a 20% or better K rate, none eclipsing the 22% league average (Walbert Ureña 22%, Michael King 21%, and Robbie Ray 20%). They all have a SIERA in the mid-4.00s, ranging from 4.33 to 4.90 and it’s hard not to think there are some Duds in the offing for Pfaadt if the skills remain down here. He’s doing positive things that are driving enough bankable success to get him into rotations in any league size, but he still isn’t close to a set it and forget it type and won’t be able to achieve that level without cultivating a swing-and-miss pitch he can believe in start-to-start.

• Cavalli hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his last 12 starts, netting a 2.82 ERA/1.04 WHIP with a sharp 22% K-BB, fueled by a pair of double-digit strikeout games and four more with at least 7 Ks. He was lifted before a total implosion in the worst two of these 12 starts with early walks (5 BB in the 5 IP of these two outings) perhaps being a key indicator that it’s not his day. Unsurprisingly, he has 3+ BB in 5 of his 8 worst starts by Game Score (far from a perfect measure of a game, but a useful starting point in bucketing good/bat outings) this year. TEX is bottom 10 in BB% vR on the year and 27th in the L30 days (7%) along with the 3rd highest K% (26%) in that same time.
• Offff course May has two gems since joining MIL! He closed his STL tenure with a pair as well, so it’s been four straight good ones since his last Dud, posting a 1.50 ERA/0.96 WHIP/15% K-BB in 24 IP. I was definitely carrying some residual sourness from buying in after his 17 scoreless IP in mid-June only to see him allow 11 ER in 2.7 IP over his next two starts at KCR and at ATL. He’s earned enough trust that his next Dud won’t instantly have me running for the hills.
• Holmes was sharp in his 2nd start off the IL with 6.7 IP of 1-hit shutout ball. Only 3 Ks, but that’s never been the focus of his game with an elite groundball rate that should play very nicely with this defense behind him. Now they did lose Dansby Swanson which moves Nico Hoerner over to SS and Pedro Ramírez into the everyday 2B role which no doubt weakens the overall unit, but not enough to become a liability for Holmes.

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I’ll add some comments in the AM!

• Harrison got trounced at SDP, including a Luis Rengifo grand slam, but just 3 of the 8 runs were earned. Unfortunately, there were no “unearned baserunners” so the 10 H and 3 BB resulted in a disgusting 2.77 WHIP. The fastball velo was down to 93.2, compared to a season mark of 94.9 and 94.6 in his first start off the IL which does give some pause that this is more than just regular ol’ bad start (hat tip to trashpanda in the comments for posting the velo info right as I was about to go search it up and saved me the trouble!), but I’m still riding with him today and this will be a pivotal start in determining there’s more to worry about. If it was a really tough matchup, I might suggest more caution in shallower leagues, but catching the lowly M’s gives him a great chance to get right and shake this one. Regardless of the results, keep an eye on the velo. Sub-94 mph again and we start to get some real concerns.
• Ray has 8 BB in 2 starts w/SDP after just 5 in his final 3 w/SFG which is just the standard inconsistency that comes with his game. NYM is surging of late vL (8th in L30 days) but it’s not enough to take me off this start. Ray is someone you generally just set and forget outside of injury. When he’s on, no one can touch him.
• Maybe Martinez should be above the trio of lefties with how electric his season has been for Tampa Bay. His already modest K% is even lower this year at just 14% and yet he’s got some of the best ratios going at 2.74 ERA/1.09 WHIP. MLB-bests of 4% BB and 85% LOB are working in concert to keep his WHIP tiny and make sure that his 1.0 HR9 stings a lot less than normal. There’s still some real “run-hot” to the season, but dammit, the Rays did it again!!
• Y’all already know I’m terrified about Baz being this high, but he’s earned it and of course, NYY is ripe for the picking right now (here comes 6 ER now that I said that, of course). Even with a Dud last time out, Baz has a solid 3.39 ERA/1.33 WHIP/15% K-BB in his L8. There’s still plenty of risk here even with the hapless Yankees.
• SDP’s offensive surge has come more vR than vL, but they are up to 11th in wOBA over the last month against southpaws so don’t take that 26th season rank totally to heart. I mentioned this briefly yesterday that we’ll need to be careful starting any ol’ pitcher against SDP as we were throughout most of the summer, but Thornton still clears the bar to get a full reco from me. He is susceptible here if the Ks remain light, though. He has just 7 total in his L3 starts for a mere 10% K%.
• Ashcraft battled through a brutal July, posting a 7.78 ERA in four starts, but he’s hit the road in August to get right. In three straight roadies, he’s allowed just 5 ER in 19 IP (2.37 ERA) and had his best start of the year last time out, allowing just a solo shot in a complete game at MIA with 10 Ks.
• Well, we mega-whiffed on Mahle! Justin, Jason and I thought his move from SFG to ATL would be a total bust given how much of a stark home/road split he had with the Giants. Instead, he’s had two of his best starts of the year, one at NYY and the other hosting NYM. Sure, neither of those offenses are anywhere close to scary, but I was concerned that Mahle would actively hurt fantasy teams regardless of who he was facing. This is a nice challenge for Mahle as MIN can hit it outta the park and they’ve been 11th in runs against righties.
• After an unstoppable 7-start run to open the year, Soriano labored through May and June, posting a 5.34 ERA in 11 starts, boosting his ERA from 0.84 to 3.42 in the process. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of the six starts since then, but it’s worth noting that the 2.44 ERA/1.05 WHIP combo since then comes with just an 8% K-BB (he was at 20% during his opening 7-start surge). With that in mind, he’s not a must-start in the shallowest of formats, especially against a tough TBR team.

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