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• It’s Miz, Skenes, and Wheeler day — Rejoice!! Unfortunately, they all have evening games so there will be some overlap, but the start times are a little staggered with Skenes first at 5:40pm CT, 6:10 for Wheels, and 6:45 for Miz so you get a clean half an hour with Skenes before Wheels even starts. If you trying to split your time and catch some of all three, you can watch Skenes’s first few IP before jumping over. Skenes used to take precedent over any non-Skubal start for me, but Miz has ascended into that spot so come 6:45, CHC-MIL gets the big screen, even over my Tigers. 🙈
• Ginn, Arrighetti, and Martinez are the interlopers of the 3-x world thanks to matchups, venues, and/or recent performance. Ginn has become a firm home/road sit/start guy for me: 4.29 ERA/1.62 WHIP at home | 1.99/.79 on the road. Arrighetti and Martinez are toting mid-5.00s ERAs over the L30 days but both have solid full season records and get to face sputtering offenses.
• From there, the board gets really sketchy. I don’t feel great about starting any of the 2-x’ers and below. I’m taking a shot on McDonald despite his recent struggles because he’s catching ATL at the best possible time as they sit dead last in wOBA vR over the last month as regression and injuries catch up to them. Pair that with SFG’s offense hitting a lot better of late and putting a potential W in play if McDonald can put up a solid 5.
• Ureña still has that sharp ERA/WHIP split (2.41/1.31) that suggests the former will be headed upward sooner than later, but we’ll take a shot against a road ATH team that is top 10 vR in the aggregate, but sits 18th against ’em on the road.
• Castillo blew Miller’s gem last time out when they were in the starter-follower setup but his four outings before that were solid: 1.79 ERA/1.00 WHIP/13% K-BB in 20.3 IP. I only say “solid” despite the beautiful ratios because the K-BB is still pretty modest, suggesting there’s some run-hot here. But even if you tack the 4 unearned runs back onto his ledger, it’s still a palatable 3.58 ERA in this span. The clincher is the matchup, though. Our start thresholds against the J-Ram-less Guardians are wiiide open!
• We’re at the point of the season where COL has built enough good numbers at home to push their full season rankings way up so don’t immediately get deterred by their 4th highest wOBA vR. They’re tied for 1st at home with TBR (that’s interesting!) with a .353 wOBA that drops to .313 (16th) on the road. That doesn’t mean Bradley and his 6.93 ERA/1.62 WHIP over the last month is an auto start, just that the matchup isn’t as scary as it seems on the surface. 
• My interest Cantillo is purely matchup related as SEA is dead last vL on the year and 25th over the L30 days.
• Abbott is another pure matchup play. PIT has a night-day vR/vL split, sitting 23rd in wOBA vL with a 27% K rate that is tied for highest with COL. Abbott also hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in a start since April 24th, posting a 2.41 ERA in his L10 starts. But the modest 1.23 WHIP and outright bad 8% K-BB don’t give the ERA a lot of credence, yet he keeps getting it done. I’d have no problem sitting in a tougher matchup even w/the hot ERA run, but PIT v. a southpaw is tough to pass.
• I originally gave Corbin 1-x, but took it off about 20 minutes after posting. TEX isn’t a scary matchup, but Corbin has completely pumpkin’d after a fast start (6.64 ERA/1.82 WHIP/5% K-BB in L30).  

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• Cam/Sanchez Day is fun! I wish one had a day game instead of playing around the same time because I love dialing in on both this year. Sanchez draws the spunky Nats so slots 3rd among the aces.
• I thought Seattle was moving the Opener/Follower around the rotation but it Miller/Castillo doing it again. Last time I listed Castillo since I usually list Followers but their OP/FW setups aren’t like normal. Miller isn’t necessarily going to be limited on the front end. Last game, he was brilliant for 5 but Castillo had a really rough 4 behind him. Woo! (not Bryan, but rather an exclamation of celebration!) I was right that they are moving the OP/FW around. Miller and Castillo get traditional starts today & tomorrow with Gilbert/Hancock running the double dip setup on Saturday. Nothing changes for our purposes today as we were starting Miller even against the tough Pirates, but maybe now he’ll be allowed to go 6-7 IP if he’s rolling. Ty to commenter TheBabbo!
• Early has found a better strikeout groove of late. After reaching 6 Ks just once in his first 7 starts, he’s hit the mark in 6 of his L8 with his composite K% going from 20% to 24% in that time.
• Melton has quite hit his K% peak, but he’s also gotten better of late. After just 4 Ks in his first 2 starts (12.7 IP), he has 5 in each of his L3 though he’s still only at 20% during that time, amassing 19 IP of 3.32 ERA and 0.95 WHIP with the improved K output. The results have made it easy to stick with him and I still feel there’s more in the tank skillswise.

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• Joe Ryan out sick

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• Mannn, I don’t know with Bradish. His last outing was excellent (7.7 IP/1 ER/12 Ks) after back-to-back Duds. That sort of volatility also explains the Angels offense. They’re just 22nd on the season in wOBA vR, but they have the 2nd-most 10+ R gms (9) and the 2nd-most <=3 R gms (41)!
• Some really good matchups for the streamers (Woodruff, Kay, Holmes, and Rocker) and that is no doubt the driving force behind their recos. Woodruff is coming off the IL and could be limited while the others have all looked pretty bad in the last month.
• Kelly had a nice QS before catching the upside wrath of LAA (5.3 IP/6 ER). WAS also dropped 7 ER on him but he ran off a 2.36 ERA in 5 starts before that. Super wide range of outcomes.
• If you want a glimmer of a hope on King, he is catching ATL at the best time as they sit dead last in wOBA vR over the last month. LAD comes visiting on the weekend, though, so this is still a rough 2-step.
• Speaking of LAD, they are getting some good numbers out of Lauer with a 3.22 ERA/1.03 WHIP over the last month. Unfortunately, it’s only netted 1 W despite going at least 5 IP in 4 of his L5.

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Comments in yellow added Fri AM

• Soriano is in for LAA, not Caden Dana. I’d consider him in between Sasaki & Cavalli.
• A devastating 5th inning v. CHW fueled by 3 BB brought Sasaki back down to Earth with 7 ER. But he allowed 7 ER in his previous 5 starts combined, posting a 2.16 ERA/0.86 WHIP/25% K-BB, so I’m inclined to give him a pass for a tough inning against a good young team and run him back out there without fear today.  
• Cavalli is a WHIP risk but has been running well of late (3.86 ERA/1.14 WHIP/19% K-BB in L5) and catches TBR at a good time with them sitting just 22nd vR in the L14 days.
• Meanwhile Suarez gets SEA an upswing as they’ve surge to 10th in the L14 days but he’s also back on track after a hiccup, including 13 Ks in 11.3 IP.
• Roupp is a big get for those who got him off the wire and he could be a big get in this start at a MIA team that doesn’t hit righties very well.
• Vásquez has gone full pumpkin and should be relegated back to streamer status. After a 16% K-BB in his first 8 starts – that included a 12% SwStr, nearly 2x his 2025 mark (7%) – he’d earned some trust, but he’s down to just 5% K-BB in his L6 with a 7% SwStr. And with that ringing endorsement… let’s start him at TEX!
• Tough to see Imai give back all the good of his 4-start run with one of the worst starts of the years: 5 runs on 4 H and 1 BB in just two outs of work. And yet I think we saddle back up here against the J-Ram-less Guardians.
• SEA is going to run Miller/Castillo but I’m not sure of the IP expectation. Miller is coming off an excellent 8-IP gem at WAS (7 Ks, 0 BB) while 3 UER helped Castillo survive his trip to DC.

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Woo has just a 6.26 ERA over his L4 but three were on the road and he’s really developed a venue-based split this year. He has a 2.37 ERA/0.71 WHIP in 6 home starts but 5.93/1.32 on the road in 8 starts. He’s always had that split, but it used to be elite at home and simply good on the road (3.71 ERA/1.09 WHIP coming into this year). A 12-point drop to 19% K rate on the road is what pushes me to taking this split more seriously. As such, I might be open to skipping his at PIT next week, at least in shallower formats. I still think even a diminished Woo is probably better than what most people have on their bench or wire in 15-teamers (not that you’d cut him, I’m not advocating of that at all, just saying you were looking for someone to fill-in next week off the wire).

• Messick now has 120 career IP of 2.69 ERA/1.16 WHIP… what a stud! Someone brought up possibly trading him in my chat as a preemptive strike against a possible IP limit, but he threw 138.3 IP last year between the majors and minors so even just a 15% bump gets us 160 and shouldn’t require any major layoffs to get there.
• Gray has been finding his footing of late with a 2.29 ERA and 24% K in 7 starts since coming off the IL (4.30/1.30 before that).
• Is Manaea recapturing his 2024 groove? 2.91 ERA/0.92 WHIP/22% K-BB in his L5 outings including his first traditional start of the year last time out during which he went 6 strong (2 ER, 6 K, 0 BB).
• MIL just keeps twisting the knife of the Devers deal for BOS as Drohan looks to settle into his role. Even with 5 IP/4 ER v. PHI, he still had 7 K/0 BB. His 7% HR/FB probably has some regression coming, but so does the 65% LOB rate so a mid-3.00s ERA with strong supporting skills seems plenty doable. He’s also 27 years old so he doesn’t necessarily have to be babies IP-wise, but on the other hand he has just 70 combined IP the last two years so they also can’t just push him to the max. I’m not concerned about any IP caps right now, though.
• Yesavage retains his 3-x status thanks to an easier matchup after posting Duds in 3 of his L4 with 17 BB in the 22.3 IP being a huge problem.
• Weathers and Roupp have sputtered significantly over their L5 including 3 straight Duds from Weathers while an 8-bomb at MIL and modest 4.7 IP/4 ER v. CHC last time out overpower 3 solid starts from Roupp in his recent quintet. Both get very difficult matchups, too, so they might even be skippable in 12s depending on your depth and what you need in the standings.
• NYY is worse without Judge, but not bad as they sit 12th in wOBA v. righties this month. Burke has labored through a pair of 5 BB outings at PHI and v. LAD but has still managed 13 Ks in the 8.3 IP of work.
• SFG has been top 10 vL over the last two weeks (and even better vR) so I haven’t been blindly recommending guys against them and certainly wouldn’t give Pérez if he wasn’t pitching well of late (3.81 ERA/1.19 WHIP in L5).
• Jump has been nice in his first 4 starts – 2 home, 2 away – so I’m open to considering him in a lot of spots against the K-heavy Angels (25% K vR).
• Leiter’s recent record (6.15 ERA/1.52 WHIP in L5) paired with MIN surging a bit offensively (6th wOBA vR in L14 days and that doesn’t even include their shellacking of Rocker tonight) makes him more of a lottery ticket stream at best.
• SEA is no longer a pushover at home, sitting 8th in wOBA vR at home this year and I’ve never been shy about my distrust of Baz, so be careful here.
• Obviously a big part of streaming is using less than stable skillsets against weaker opponents but I still want to be discerning and not just blindly start guys I don’t actually trust. To that end, I’m not sure I see many fits for Nola even against the lowly Mets. He’s now at a 5.95 ERA over his last 165 IP thanks in large part to a 1.7 HR9. If he wasn’t named Aaron Nola, we wouldn’t even be giving him a second look. I’m a track record/pedigree guy so I don’t discount a player’s history, but the simple fact is that old Nola isn’t comin’ back!

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Afternoon updates:

• Senga coming off the IL and Scott headed on it (hip). Don’t start Senga until we see something and probably 2-3 good starts worth of that “something”
• Rasmussen isn’t risk-free at LAD but he’s just too good for me to be concerned by his matchups
• Commenter TJ brought up some King concerns for 10-teamers and it’s not completely unfounded with a 6.45 ERA/1.39 WHIP in his L4 starts but I’m not totally off him based on this run. ATH and WAS got to him the most, allowing 9 ER in 9.3 IP. ATH beat him straight up, but 4 of the 5 at WAS came in the 7th inning of what had been a solid start to that point (outside of the meager 2 Ks). He went 6 IP/4 ER v. NYM which falls shy of a QS but certainly isn’t a terrible outing. And then his most recent was 6.7 IP/3 ER v. CIN. Despite the ERA, I love that he’s gone 6+ in 3 of the 4. I will concede he’s not a must-start in 10s given the lighter skills (12% K-BB) compared to his recent years and a .246 BABIP that is rife for some more regression, but he remains startable against an OK Cardinals lineup. I do think 10-team managers have to think deeply about the ATL/LAD 2-step he’s set up for next week as they could get that BABIP regression going in earnest. Coming back around on this to say I’m convinced to drop King a bit after another “bleh” outing (4.3 IP/3 ER/8 BR/1 K)… in fact “bleh” is taking him off the hook a bit, it was bad. He’ll now be in the 1-2x range depending on matchup and that 2-step next week now becomes a potential cut point for 10-teamers since I can’t imagine you’d want to use it. Good call, TJ! 
• Holmes is more of a Wins chase and with SFG’s recent offensive surge, I downgraded him to 1-x.
• I want to love Perkins and even picked him up in my Main Event league on June 7th but it’s been tough to confidently start him. I didn’t even consider Vegas last week and then labored on this week’s 2-step — both at home — before eventually slotting him in. I’d likely skip this in daily moves leagues before jumping in this weekend against LAA.

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