Archive for Roto

You smell that? That’s the smell of spring in the air. Baseball is around the corner and draft season will be in high gear before we know it. We already ran our first set of rankings that you hopefully got a chance to check out as they were rolled out. You can either bookmark the Rankings filter which will show you all posts dealing with rankings or you can access them by position in the sidebar:

In a post later today, I’ll be covering all of our draft tools in more depth, but let’s get to what you came here for, the spreadsheet!

Not only does it contain all of the rankings from the seven of us, but we’ve also added Steamer Projections and a cross-off capability that allows you to assign each player to the team that drafted him while putting a line through his name and numbers. Thanks to Jeff Zimmermann, Tanner Bell, and Danielle Mason (Justin’s wife) for their work on this. As with our rankings, this is our first run, so we will be making enhancements where necessary. In fact, if there is anything you’d really like to see on future updates, please let us know. If it’s feasible, we’ll try to get it on there. The next update of this spreadsheet won’t come until March when we update the rankings.

Without further ado:

ROTOGRAPHS FIRST RUN RANKINGS SPREADSHEET

There was a misalignment in OF and RP in the first upload here which skewed some Steamer Projections. It has been fixed. If you downloaded before 12:58 PM Central on 2/19, please re-download. 

Is Justin Upton going to bat second for the Tigers? Or sixth? What would happen to Addison Russell‘s value if he moved from ninth in the order to second? Is Corey Dickerson really going to hit cleanup for the Rays? How does Yoenis Cespedes‘ signing affect Michael Conforto’s projections?

When it comes to evaluating our typical fantasy baseball hitting categories, we know that home runs, batting average, and stolen bases are dependent upon some mix of skill and playing time (let’s say “skill-dependent”). Runs and RBI are a bit more difficult to assess. They have playing time and skill elements (getting on base and hitting for power), but they are also largely team-dependent. The projection systems, like Steamer, project R and RBI for us, but what if we want to make an adjustment? Or we want to take a gamble on a player winning a particular battle?

My goal with this post is to provide a simple framework that can be used to quickly answer questions like those above. I’m also not the first to attempt this task. So when I’m done displaying my method, I’ll share the other strong approaches I’ve been able to find. Read the rest of this entry »

Three years ago, I conducted an exhaustive study of ESPN Home Run Tracker data. At that time, it was the primary tool I used to validate a batter’s power, before we got into the sexy new batted ball distance, and then combined that with standard deviation of distance and average absolute angle. The short story is I found that hitters with an unusually high percentage of “Just Enough” (JE) homers saw their HR/FB rates decline the following year, significantly more than the rest of the player population. On the other hand, those who hit a high percentage of “No Doubt” (ND) homers maintained their HR/FB rate much better than the rest of the group.

Read the rest of this entry »

Three years ago, I conducted an exhaustive study of ESPN Home Run Tracker data. At that time, it was the primary tool I used to validate a batter’s power, before we got into the sexy new batted ball distance, and then combined that with standard deviation of distance and average absolute angle. The short story is I found that hitters with an unusually high percentage of “Just Enough” (JE) homers saw their HR/FB rates decline the following year, significantly more than the rest of the player population. On the other hand, those who hit a high percentage of “No Doubt” (ND) homers maintained their HR/FB rate much better than the rest of the group.

Read the rest of this entry »

Finish third in each rotisserie category and you’ll win the league. We’ve all heard or read that at some point. Where does it originate from? Is it founded in fact?

I’ve spent a lot of time acquiring and analyzing standings data of late (AL-only, NL-only, mixed).  And looking at that information got me to thinking that I could easily determine if finishing third across-the-board is really what it’s cracked up to be.

Turns out that it is. Finishing third in all ten categories would have won 67 of the 76 AL-only leagues and 47 of the 51 NL-only leagues I looked at.

But in looking at things a little closer, I found an even better reason you should set your sights on finishing third. One that had never crossed my mind. Read the rest of this entry »

(This is part one of the “Ottoneu 101” series)

Spring is almost here, which means pitchers and catchers (and fantasy drafts) are just around the corner.  Today I’ll walk you through an Ottoneu player auction (thanks to the guys in League 100) so you can be fully prepared before your own league draft gets underway in the coming weeks.

Read the rest of this entry »

2/8/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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• @sporer
• @enosarris

Strategy Section

• Revisiting SP Ranks – Discussing Outside the Top-25
  • Carlos Martinez ended the season ailing w/a shoulder (3:08)
  • James Shields spiked his Ks, but doubled his 2014 BB%, what happened?! (9:56)
  • Andrew Cashner also spiked his Ks, but everything else regressed, why? (14:20)
  • Steven Matz is 30th in ADP, but 56th in our ranks (27:50)
  • Is there more to Jimmy Nelson or is this (3.75-4.25 ERA kind of SP) it? (32:00)
  • Will Mike Leake get a sprinkling of Cards Devil Magic or be his solid-but-boring self? (36:55)
  • Battle of Young-ish Lefties: Robbie Ray (24 y/o) or Alex Wood (25 y/o)? (40:10)
  • John Lamb had a 5.80 ERA last year, yet is drawing some deep-league interest? (45:04)
  • The Backend of SF’s rotation: Jake Peavy, Matt Cain at 4, 5 and Chris Heston on-deck (54:46)
  • Are you drafting Lucas Giolito and/or Tyler Glasnow in mixed leagues? (59:59)

Emails

• Joe – New Auction League (1:06:17)
• TJ – International Players (1:12:27)

Off-Topic

• Super Bowl ads and beer (1:16:00)

We have a new email address for questions: sleeperpod@gmail.com. Send your fantasy-relevant questions. You can send keeper questions, but those are much better for Twitter. Questions most likely to get selected are those that apply more broadly, as opposed to specific trade or keeper queries. However, if you do ask a league-specific question, please include the league size and categories.

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As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions.

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Approximately 81 minutes of joyous analysis.

2/5/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

THE INITIAL POSTING HAD THE WRONG FILE ATTACHED. IT HAS BEEN CORRECTED. AND THEN THE CORRECTION WAS WRONG AND THAT IS NOW FIXED. IT SHOULD ALL WORK PROPERLY AS OF 2/6 1:45 CENTRAL.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris

Strategy Section

• Revisiting SP Ranks – Discussing Outside the Top-25
  • Adam Wainwright is only lagging in Ks; what do you see in ‘16? (3:00)
  • Michael Pineda had a flashy K-BB% (20%), but ugly ERA; better in ‘16? (10:10)
  • The AL Pitching Market (16:40)
  • Yu Darvish’s TJ return (20:10)
  • Collin McHugh or Mike Fiers in 2016? (29:07)
  • Jesse Hahn has two nice half-seasons, but inj.-shortened ‘15 leaves questions (40:09)
  • Is there another level for Andrew Heaney? (44:22)
  • Post-hype sleepers: Matt Moore & Trevor Bauer (48:26)
  • Martin Perez was a legit big-time prospect, but just 15% K as MLBer (1:01:20)
  • I say “cat pajamas”… on purpose (1:01:29)
  • Matt Shoemaker’s ERA jumped almost a run and a half despite v similar skills; what gives? (1:06:42)

Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

For the New York Mets, there are no outright starter roles up for grabs. There are, however, potential platoon roles given the amount of versatility some of their players have. August Fagerstrom looked at the most promising platoons here, and the Mets had two of the top 5 “potential” platoons, meaning if the Mets were to platoon, they have some valuable options at second base and in the outfield. Will there be a straight platoon? We’re not sure just yet, but the Mets have options, which is something the front office wanted to improve upon this off-season.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week we took a look at standings data, for 12-team AL-only leagues. Now I’m back to present the same findings using a sample of 51 NL-only leagues. What follows is a look at the points required to win an NL-only roto league, what it takes to finish first in each rotisserie category, standings gain points information, and a downloadable Excel file for you to analyze further. Read the rest of this entry »