Author Archive

Analyzing Past and Future Lineup Performance

For those of us who play in DFS or play in leagues with daily lineups, pitching matchups can be essential. We can always try and rely on the top pitching options, but what if we are either trying to draft a cheaper pitcher in DFS or stream a pitcher with a favorable matchup? Knowing the effectiveness of the opposing lineup is important, and that’s what we’re going to look at this week.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t give the small sample size caveat, since we are looking at two weeks of team lineup data, so we’re also going to look at Steamer projections for the rest of the season to see if what teams have done so far is sustainable or just a small sample size fluke.
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Reviewing Paul Kastava’s 10 Bold Predictions for 2016

These were fun. I usually just say crazy things to my friends and when one of them is true, try to remind them about it and they usually don’t care because they have lives that involve things outside of baseball. Losers. Anyway, here is my initial Bold Predictions article along with my midseason review where a few of my colleagues and myself were so impatient, we had to see where we stood. My goal was to bat .300, so let’s see if I was able to hit my mark. Then laugh at all the ones I was terribly wrong on.

1.) Chris Carter will break 100 R.B.I.

This was the prediction I felt most confident about going into the midseason review and I came very close to nailing this one as Carter ended up with 94 RBI Coming into the season, I really felt strong about Carter having a strong season because of opportunity and how he closed out the 2015 season. He hit 41 HRs and had a wRC+ of 114, so I’d say his season was a success and the spirit of this prediction was pretty spot on. I didn’t account for the Brewers trading away Jonathan Lucroy, which maybe could’ve accounted for another 6 RBI? To be fair, I also didn’t think Jonathan Villar would have the type of season he did and that certainly gave Carter more RBI opportunities than anticipated.

Since I am going to be struggling to find hits with these other predictions, I am going to give myself the every-so-common half a hit. Trust me, it will not help my batting average too much.

0.5 for 1

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Bullpen Report: September 21, 2016

Seattle’s Edwin Diaz was called on for the four-out save and was tasked with facing the heart of Toronto’s line-up. After striking out Josh Donaldson to end the 8th, he then struck out Edwin Encarnacion to start the 9th and had to face Jose Bautista with a one-run lead. Well, Bautista took him deep for his second blown save of the season and the first earned run he had given up since August 30th when he blew his first save against Texas as well. The Mariners would win in the bottom of the 12th taking Diaz off the hook as Nick Vincent got his fourth win and R.A. Dickey gave up an unearned run to suffer his 15th loss.

Jeurys Familia suffered his fifth blown save of the season, although it was not your traditional one out save. With two on and one out in the 8th, Familia was called on for the 5-out save. After a double steal put two runners in scoring position and the Braves down by one, Matt Kemp would hit a sacrifice fly to tie the game, even though the run was unearned for set-up man Addison Reed as the runner, Ender Inciarte, reached on an error by James Loney. Familia would get out of the inning and come on for the 9th, when the Braves scored with two singles, a sac bunt, and a fielder’s choice. The game was not over as Jim Johnson came on in the 9th for the Braves looking for the sweep. After giving up a hit and a walk, with two outs Yoenis Cespedes stepped up to the plate and ripped one to deep center that looked like it was gone and would’ve given the Mets the dramatic win. Inciarte, however, would strike again and robbed Cespedes of a homer to secure Johnson’s 17th save.

Quick Hits: With Ken Giles unavailable after pitching two straight days, Luke Gregerson came on for his first save opportunity since July 6th. He gave up an unearned run, but managed to hold on for the save (15). Daniel Hudson held on for the 4-out save (4) in Arizona. Andrew Bailey (4), Tony Watson (15), and Cody Allen (15) all earned saves tonight, with Allen giving up a run in the 9th.

Closer Grid:

Closer First Second DL/Minors
Arizona Daniel Hudson Randall Delgado Jake Barrett
Atlanta Jim Johnson Mauricio Cabrera Ian Krol Arodys Vizcaino
Baltimore Zach Britton Brad Brach Mychal Givens Darren O’Day
Boston Craig Kimbrel Koji Uehara Brad Ziegler Carson Smith
CHI (NL) Aroldis Chapman Hector Rondon Carl Edwards
CHI (AL) David Robertson Nate Jones Matt Albers
Cincy Tony Cingrani Raisel Iglesias Michael Lorenzen
Cleveland Cody Allen Andrew Miller Bryan Shaw
Colorado Adam Ottavino Jake McGee Carlos Estevez Scott Oberg
Detroit Francisco Rodriguez Alex Wilson Justin Wilson
Houston Ken Giles Luke Gregerson Will Harris
KC Wade Davis Kelvin Herrera Joakim Soria Luke Hochevar
LAA Andrew Bailey J.C. Ramirez Mike Morin Cam Bedrosian
LAD Kenley Jansen Joe Blanton Pedro Baez
Miami A.J. Ramos Fernando Rodney David Phelps
Milwaukee Tyler Thornburg Corey Knebel Blaine Boyer
Minnesota Brandon Kintzler Ryan Pressly Taylor Rogers Glen Perkins
NY (NL) Jeurys Familia Addison Reed Fernando Salas
NY (AL) Dellin Betances Tyler Clippard Adam Warren
Oakland Ryan Madson Ryan Dull John Axford
Philly Jeanmar Gomez Hector Neris David Hernandez
Pittsburgh Tony Watson Neftali Feliz Felipe Rivero
St. Louis Seung Hwan Oh Kevin Siegrist Jonathan Broxton
SD Brandon Maurer Ryan Buchter Brad Hand
SF Hunter Strickland Derek Law Sergio Romo
Seattle Edwin Diaz Steve Cishek Nick Vincent
TB Alex Colome Brad Boxberger Xavier Cedeno
Texas Sam Dyson Jake Diekman Matt Bush Jeremy Jeffress
Toronto Roberto Osuna Joaquin Benoit Jason Grilli
Wash. Mark Melancon Shawn Kelley Blake Treinen

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

Bullpen Report: September 14, 2016

Let’s throw another name into the mess known as the Giant’s bullpen. Derek Law was activated and pitched for the Giants for the first time since August 27th. He struck out the only batter he faced down 3-1 in the 9th, as Bochy said he will not use him high leverage situations just yet. Law has had a very strong year with a 1.93 ERA (2.30 WHIP), and could see some 9th inning chances as the season winds down and the Giants bullpen continues to struggle. For now, he is off the grid.

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Bullpen Report: September 9th, 2016

It’s been a while since you’ve heard from us and we apologize for that. For tonight, I’m going to first update you on changes in the grid since the last time we put something out. Then I will close out with an update on tonight’s slate.

Bruce Bochy announced he will remove Santiago Casilla as closer and go with a committee. He then used him with a one-run lead tonight in extra innings and he gave up a game-tying home-run to Jake Lamb. This makes the Giants closer job very volatile and although Will Smith is at the top of the grid, this does not mean he will get first shot at save opportunities. If you’re in a Holds/Save league, go for one of the three Giants on the grid. If it’s just Saves, be cautious when picking up these relievers who have no hold on the job just yet.
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Bullpen Report: August 28th, 2016

Although we had a long weekend, there were no major news stories from the bullpen, so we’ll keep this short and sweet. A couple of middle relievers had some role changes and one big name could be coming back soon. Read the rest of this entry »

Bullpen Report: August 21, 2016

Sorry we missed you most of the weekend, but a lot has happened on the grid so let’s get you updated.

Enrique Burgos had an up and down weekend blowing a save in the 8th inning on Friday, but then earned his first save of the year on Saturday by striking out two and walking one. Jake Barrett and Steve Hathaway loaded the bases for Daniel Hudson in the 8th, who escaped the jam earning the Hold (16). Not a lot of stability in this situation right now, but the grid reflects Burgos as the closer with Hudson next in line for now.
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What if Wil Myers Stopped Running?

According to ESPN’s Fantasy Player Rater, Wil Myers is ranked 3rd amongst all first basemen and 11th out of all hitters. There is no doubt he is having a great season and is finally living up to the lofty expectations set up for him since he was a minor leaguer. Much of his value, however, is derived from his 21 steals, which leads all of first basemen. The high steals has never really been in his repertoire before, so I wonder how much we should rely on this year’s numbers moving forward.
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Bullpen Report: August 13, 2016

Friday was busy for relievers as Jim Johnson (10), Dellin Betances (4), Will Harris (12), David Robertson (28), Brandon Maurer (5), Sam Dyson (26), Ryan Madson (25), Tony Watson (5), and Zach Britton (36) all shook hands and earned saves on Friday. Transactions started to build up on Saturday, along with some saves so let’s get to those. Read the rest of this entry »

Bullpen Report: August 7, 2016

Ah, the beauty of the Holds statistic. Up by 3, Jeremy Jeffress gave up two runs in the 8th and then Sam Dyson blew his third save of the season giving up a run in the 9th. Jeffress earns a hold (3) and Dyson is stuck with the blown save. I know I’m probably preaching to the choir, but this is one of those glaring statistical injustices it would seem. Either way, the Rangers would come back and win the game as Matt Bush pitched two scoreless innings for the W (5). I guess the real bullpen story of this game falls on the Houston side as Will Harris’ struggles continue after walking a batter and hitting the next. After a stolen base and a fielder’s choice leaving runner’s on second and third, Ken Giles came in and gave up a double to score two runs on Harris’ docket. That’s when things got interesting for Giles who would allow 3 more baserunners over 1.2 innings, while striking out six Rangers. Yes, I know that doesn’t seem to make mathematical sense, but Giles managed to strike out Nomar Mazara on a wild pitch after allowing a Mitch Moreland double. He would then hit Ryan Rua to load the bases. Then Giles settled down and struck out the side. Read the rest of this entry »