Why You Should Aim for Third Place

Finish third in each rotisserie category and you’ll win the league. We’ve all heard or read that at some point. Where does it originate from? Is it founded in fact?

I’ve spent a lot of time acquiring and analyzing standings data of late (AL-only, NL-only, mixed).  And looking at that information got me to thinking that I could easily determine if finishing third across-the-board is really what it’s cracked up to be.

Turns out that it is. Finishing third in all ten categories would have won 67 of the 76 AL-only leagues and 47 of the 51 NL-only leagues I looked at.

But in looking at things a little closer, I found an even better reason you should set your sights on finishing third. One that had never crossed my mind.

While trading e-mails with the folks at OnRoto about the AL- and NL-only standings data, they pointed this out to me…

“My experience is that the SGPs are actually bell shaped within each category… which has an impact on how you should set up your team.”

Relax

I just mentioned SGP. Not everyone uses standings gain points. I know this. But hold on! Even if you use z-scores, PVM, or the auction calculator to value your players, the concept of moving up and down the standings is really what we’re about to look at. Moving up the standings applies to everyone! This article is not about valuation or even ranking players.

Regardless of your preferred valuation methodology, when playing fake baseball games our goal is to move up the standings one spot at a time. We can all look at a given set of standings and see that it might take 15 runs or 0.06 ERA points, on average, to move up to that next spot.

The Data Used

I downloaded and cleaned up the 2015 NFBC Main Event standings data (30 leagues, 450 teams). Here are the average standings of those 30 leagues:

2015 NFBC Main Event Standings
RANK BA R HR RBI SB ERA WHIP W K SV
1 0.275 1,075 287 1,031 170 3.22 1.14 109 1,484 108
2 0.272 1,040 276 1,003 156 3.38 1.18 102 1,425 97
3 0.271 1,018 268 983 148 3.49 1.20 99 1,391 90
4 0.269 1,004 261 973 142 3.55 1.21 96 1,364 86
5 0.268 993 256 960 135 3.62 1.22 94 1,346 81
6 0.267 980 250 947 130 3.67 1.23 92 1,325 78
7 0.265 970 245 933 127 3.71 1.23 90 1,311 74
8 0.265 956 241 923 122 3.76 1.24 89 1,293 70
9 0.263 943 236 912 117 3.81 1.25 87 1,279 68
10 0.262 932 230 899 113 3.85 1.26 85 1,259 63
11 0.261 919 225 885 107 3.89 1.27 83 1,243 57
12 0.259 904 219 870 104 3.96 1.28 80 1,211 50
13 0.258 886 210 850 98 4.02 1.29 79 1,180 42
14 0.255 861 198 826 89 4.11 1.30 75 1,128 33
15 0.252 822 186 784 76 4.28 1.32 69 1,043 17

I then used that average standings data to determine the average stats needed to climb up one spot in the standings.

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Stats Required to Reach Next Position in Standings
TO REACH BA DIFF R DIFF HR DIFF RBI DIFF SB DIFF ERA DIFF WHIP DIFF W DIFF K DIFF SV DIFF
1 0.0029 34.9 11.0 28.7 13.2 0.153 0.038 6.9 58.9 10.5
2 0.0017 22.9 7.8 19.8 8.7 0.117 0.014 3.0 33.6 7.3
3 0.0018 13.0 7.7 10.3 5.6 0.052 0.012 3.1 27.2 4.1
4 0.0012 11.2 4.4 12.7 6.9 0.070 0.008 2.0 18.0 4.8
5 0.0010 13.0 5.8 13.2 4.8 0.054 0.010 2.4 21.0 3.0
6 0.0012 10.2 5.0 13.7 3.5 0.036 0.007 1.5 13.8 3.9
7 0.0009 14.0 4.5 9.9 5.3 0.059 0.009 1.3 18.2 4.1
8 0.0012 12.8 4.8 11.5 4.9 0.044 0.011 2.1 13.9 2.5
9 0.0011 11.2 6.4 12.7 4.1 0.045 0.007 2.1 20.1 4.1
10 0.0014 13.4 4.3 13.8 5.6 0.041 0.008 2.0 16.2 6.3
11 0.0015 14.8 6.3 15.3 3.2 0.064 0.010 2.4 31.7 7.3
12 0.0017 17.3 8.8 19.2 6.2 0.065 0.013 1.9 31.5 7.9
13 0.0026 25.6 12.2 24.7 9.1 0.088 0.012 3.8 51.7 9.3
14 0.0029 38.4 12.2 41.9 13.0 0.170 0.021 5.7 84.8 15.5

For example, you can see that, on average, first place in the standings table was 287 HR and second place was 276 HR. That’s a difference of 11 HR to climb from second place to first, and you see that in the first row of the “HR DIFF” column above.

Looking at the data, you can see some bell shaped phenomenon playing out. The numbers in the middle of the standings are noticeably smaller than at the edge of the standings. It’s still a little hard to absorb, so I also graphed each category out.

Here’s a look at runs, home runs, and stolen bases:

R_GRAPH

HR_GRAPH

SB_GRAPH

For fear of causing Carpal Tunnel, I won’t make you scroll through all ten categories of graphs, but you can view them individually by clicking these links (R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, K, SV, ERA, WHIP). Or you can take my word for it that all ten demonstrate the same phenomenon.

What Do You Notice?

Each category is slightly different, but for the most part it’s clear that the standings are bell shaped (I’ll get to Saves in a minute). The red line on each graph represents the standings gain points calculation (this is also represented in the parentheses in the title of each graph).

For example, according to my own calculations on this NFBC data (using Excel’s SLOPE calculation), it takes 15.19 runs to move up one spot in the standings. That 15.19 calculation does not take into account exactly where your team is in the standings. It’s more or less an “average” calculation with the effect of outliers being mitigated.

When you look at the graphs you see that the “on average” nature of the SGP calculation has some weaknesses. When you’re at the edge of the bell curves it takes much more to reach the next team in the standings (to reach 1st, 2nd, 12th, 13th, 14th, and sometimes 3rd). When you’re in the middle of the curve it’s almost always easier to move up the standings than the “on average” SGP calculation indicates.

Moneyballing

Despite a fear of being accused that I don’t really understand what Moneyball was about (that’s never happened in the FG comments), I’ll make the analogy anyways. It seems like we have an inefficiency to take advantage of here.

In an auction or in a draft, we have a limited amount of resources or draft picks to work with. So it becomes imperative to spend those resources wisely and in the most efficient way possible. Given the bell shaped curve we see in these graphs, it’s most efficient to spend or draft players that can position you to come in third place.

As you move up the curve in an effort to reach second or first place, it becomes more costly and a less efficient use of your resources. If you project yourself to be in third in HR and seventh in SB, you should first allocate resources to the SB gap. A given amount of resources will get you further in the SB category than in HR.

Saves Are Different

Check out the saves graph:
SV_GRAPH

The curve is skewed further left than the others. It’s difficult to climb that curve from the bottom of the standings (the steepness here is surely due to punting and teams that didn’t plan on punting but then threw in the towel when their closers flamed out). Once you get past that part of the curve the teams are very tightly packed, with the average distance between teams being less than four saves!

Practically Speaking

This is all well and good. But what does this really mean? I’m a skeptic by nature. So I can imagine some of you are thinking, “What do you think happens, Mr. Bell? Do you think I’ll shoot for third and everyone else will aim for fourth and fifth, and the plan works perfectly? It’s not like the other managers in my league aren’t trying to do the same thing.”

Another skeptical thought I have is that I usually walk out of my drafts with the highest projected totals in nearly all categories. This is not to toot my own horn. I’m sure you have similar experiences. This is due to the biased or self-fulfilling nature of using a set of projections and preferences that nobody else will be using (read Todd Zola here).

With that skepticism in mind, here are a few practical ways you can apply this information:

  • You should try to track team projected stats during your draft or have historical targets in mind about what it will take to finish around third. If you customize projections, don’t use those same projections to calculate the projected standings. Use an unbiased resource, like Steamer (without your tweaks and edits). Try to keep your team in the middle of the standings (or bell curves).
  • Avoid trying to “run away” with a category during the draft. It’s misguided. Not only are you wasting stats (you only need to beat second place by one), it can be extremely costly to do so.
  • Don’t sweat it if one or two other teams themselves try to “run away” with categories. Stick with but try to beat the rest of the pack.
  • The ideal strategy is to build a balanced team that is set up to be in the middle to top of the pack in each category. Don’t punt! Especially if punting means you’ll be sacrificing a category you could easily move up in for categories where you’re trying to climb the steep end of the bell curve. Once you feel confident that your team will be in the thick of the race in each category, then you can get aggressive and try to climb the extreme parts of the curve.
  • Perhaps the best thing you can do on a practical side is to continue performing the four bullet points above regularly as the season progresses. Use Steamer’s rest-of-season projections and monitor where you’re likely to fall.





Tanner writes for Fangraphs as well as his own site, Smart Fantasy Baseball . He's the co-auther of The Process with Jeff Zimmerman, and has written two e-books, Using SGP to Rank and Value Fantasy Baseball Players and How to Rank and Value Players for Points Leagues, and worked with Mike Podhorzer developing a spreadsheet to accompany Projecting X 2.0. Much of his writings focus on instructional "how to" topics, Excel, and strategy. Follow him on Twitter @smartfantasybb.

42 Comments
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LenardMember since 2016
10 years ago

This is why America is falling behind. Let’s not just aim for first place, let’s take it by the throat and make it ours. This is how we make America great again. /poutyface

ashtray
10 years ago
Reply to  Lenard

This third place talk is for losers. I will be so good at winning all the categories I get tired of winning. Go big or go home.

HappyFunBall
10 years ago
Reply to  ashtray

Saves are Un-American. Let’s build a wall to keep out the closers. And we’re going to make Tony LaRussa pay for it!

Kurt Rader
10 years ago

hahaha Lenard!! But everyone gets a participation trophy right???

Justin VibberMember since 2020
10 years ago

Fascinating stuff Tanner! I wonder if modifying the SGP denominators to only look at the delta across the middle positions might be a better way, based on this info? So instead of taking the average additional HR to gain a standings point across 1-12 (or 1-15 for this NFBC data), maybe only look at 4-9 (or 4-12)?

johnnycuffMember since 2017
10 years ago
Reply to  Justin Vibber

An interesting idea. I usually throw out first and last when I calculate SGP but hadn’t thought of focusing on just the middle parts.

Statistics Don't Lie
10 years ago

The article illustrated that allocating resources to augment stolen bases at the expense of home runs is advisable if your expected standings are 3rd in HRs and 7th in SBs. Sorry, but that seems overly simplistic. A hitter with a strong HR profile might also have strong RBIs. A hitter with a strong SB profile might be weaker in RBIs. So acquiring a player means getting a cluster of stats moving different directions for different categories. Try tracking this all during a draft as you seek to optimize? Certainly when considering trades or waiver pickups there is time for analysis, but not during any drafts I’ve participated in.

Chickensoup
10 years ago

That’s not really what the graphs are saying. What they are telling you is that it takes more home runs to go from second place to first place then from fourth place to third. It’s typically similar across all stats.

The most efficient place to aim for is a third place finish across all categories. By the NFBC data it’s a winner about 90% of the time

Statistics Don't Lie
10 years ago
Reply to  Chickensoup

As I see it, the author is explaining a perspective on the most efficient allocation of draft resources. Once you’ve attained 3rd place in a category, you have vastly diminishing returns for additional resources put there. I am saying that any hitter you might choose impacts multiple categories. He could help you in categories where you project to rank 3rd, 5th, and 9th, for example. So don’t necessarily turn down a HR hitter if you are weak in walks, total bases, runs, whatever – especially if the SB guy only helps in one place and weakens you in other places. Ignore the other categories at your peril.

HappyFunBall
10 years ago

The article illustrated that allocating resources to augment stolen bases at the expense of home runs is advisable if your expected standings are 3rd in HRs and 7th in SBs.

No. This article illustrates that it is often easier to move from 7th to 3rd in one category than it is to move from 3rd to 2nd in another. HR/SB was merely one specific example provided.

Try tracking this all during a draft as you seek to optimize?

Why yes, that’s what spreadsheets are for.

Chickensoup
10 years ago

This graph doesn’t show it but another reason to target second and third place finishes is losing value on players that you could have allocated to other places. First place in home runs is 12 points if you win by 1 homerun or 15. Any home runs over the top is actually lost value on players that could have been put into average or SB.

Going for 2nd/3rd finishes has no lost value. It could be argued that leaving the draft projected as 2nd by 15 home runs is the same thing but it’s not. It gives you room to fluctuate up and down instead of just down

I agree with the sentiment of not tanking anything either and it’s the same reason. You tend to have to overpay on players, have no growth potential, and have to have really good projections.

BanderXogaerts
10 years ago

This is awesome.

Capt. Clutch
10 years ago

One problem with this theory is embodied in the curves. Many of the curves show third place as being in the middle area of the bell rather than an outlier with first and second. If that is the case aiming for third will give you a fairly high risk of finishing fourth, fifth, or maybe worse. Doesn’t sound like a winning strategy to me.

The Real McNulty
10 years ago
Reply to  Capt. Clutch

you can’t win all the time though. Sure you could aim for first in some categories, 6th in others, and luck your way up to 3rd or 4th in those categories. But I’ll take my odds in aiming for 3rd place and getting it in each category. That’s the whole point of the article. It’s harder to get 1st or 2nd and category without trading off in another category.

Capt. Clutch
10 years ago
Reply to  Tanner Bell

I agree Tanner. Overall this is very interesting. What about shooting for second instead? That will allow you to possibly have less downside without being completely unrealistic by going for first everywhere. Obviously just brainstorming here. I really like the idea behind strategy articles like this, thanks for the good work!

Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
10 years ago

Interesting stuff. Would you agree that this may validate those who argue that the stolen bases from top SB guys like Billy Hamiltonand Dee Gordon are being overvalued? Perhaps, as someone had emailed me last year, there are diminishing returns, and therefore lesser value earned, the more stats a player accumulates in one category once you pass a certain threshold.

DragonAsh
10 years ago

> Would you agree that this may validate those who argue that the stolen bases from top SB guys like Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon are being overvalued?

No, I don’t think it validates it at all. Or to say it another way – Guys like Hamilton or Gordon may well be over-valued, but that’s not part of what this (very interesting, and well-written) article says.

If your roster is structured that you’re getting 10 SBs or so from practically your entire roster, and a Dee Gordon means you’d run away with the SB category, yes – that’s over-valuing Gordon. If you get Dee Gordon and just one or two other speed guys because you think that will be sufficient to get to to near third in SBs, then use the other draft spots to get Power / RBI etc? That wouldn’t be over-valuing Gordon at all.

As the article says – it’s not any one player’s contribution per say, it’s in your entire roster construction.

The Real McNulty
10 years ago
Reply to  DragonAsh

then some would say if Gordon gets injured, you’re screwed.

Not so, if you got Dee Gordon, you probably value steals the most, so they should be relatively cheap to acquire vs. your evaluations. And since you have a bunch of good HR/BA guys, you probably can swing a trade.

brian_msbc
10 years ago

I’ve never heard of shooting for 3rd place… after reading this article, i’m and instant believer. Well done.

philosofoolMember since 2016
10 years ago

I think this makes it easier to make trades that benefit your team. If you leave the draft with a team that’s 6th in every category, almost any collection of stat improvements will make your team better. But if you’re 3rd in everything except three stats where you’re last, any player who helps in those last categories will make little impact, while you need more for the guys contributing in the good ones to make an improvement. The “all round team” is much easier to improve, and also to find trade partners for.

James
10 years ago

What are your thoughts on punting saves (or SB’s) in H2H? They are very inconsistent stats when viewed week to week. You can have 4 closers and get 4 saves total one week and lose to a team that has 2 closers who got 5 saves. It’s one of the most frustrating parts of H2H for me. Not to mention the volatility of the position. In H2H I think I’d rather spend that money to ensure that I’m elite in 3-4 categories.

Paul
10 years ago
Reply to  James

I punt SB in H2H. My strategy is to be near the top in all the other hitting cats with the goal of going 4-1 each week. I don’t punt saves because I just go for cheap closers as they churn over the season and stay competitive in saves that way. I’m very curious about the “aim for third” applications in H2H, as well as how SGP can be employed.

cmcneillyMember since 2020
10 years ago

I’ve been doing this for 2 years now and its worked great. My league has much flatter scoring, so I can get away with targeting 4th in every category (5×5) which leaves me in the top tier. Two additional advantages to what Tanner notes are a) The target numbers are much more consistent year to year than the fluctuations at the top – which makes planning straight-forward as I don’t worry in draft what others are doing. And b) it puts me in a great place for mid-season course corrections. Since I’m close in most categories to additional points, when disaster strikes I have more options to repair. For example, this past year I bungled Holds so badly that I had to tank the whole category. But I was able to gain several points here and there and recover.

Chris

P.S. Congrats Tanner on the new gig at RotoGraphs!

Kicker31
10 years ago

Here’s a thought:

Why not target 5th place in most categories and then aim for first place in two. That would allow you to “clinch” first or second place in categories A and B, and give you a large chance of moving up from 5th to 3rd in the others, with shrewd management. I realize “clinching” is a strong word, but I’m using it in coordination with how we’re able to use projections to make projections that are seven months away from being fulfilled.

What I’m saying is that you might be better off landing in 1st (shrinking your error bar, relatively speaking) in a few categories and hoping you land above the mean in the other categories, rather than banking on 3rd place throughout, which likely gives you more downside (easier to fall to 6th than move to 1st). Instead, you’re about equally likely to move from 5th to 7th or 3rd, depending on luck and management, but you also have “locked in” (relative, again) two or three high category finishes.

Daffy
10 years ago

Nice article, confirms what I’ve long suspected about point distributions. I’m wondering if sometimes it might still be better to build up a massive projected lead in one category and perhaps try to trade your way back to the deficient categories later in the season. If your league is overvaluing a single category and undervaluing another then increasing your batting average by .0029 might be easier than increasing your stolen bases by 4. If your leaguemates are overpaying for stolen bases and underpaying for empty batting average, then going from 3rd to 1st in batting average becomes relatively easy while improving from 6th to 4th in stolen bases may be a real task.

I noticed this in my keeper league last year, about 3 teams held on to all the best base stealers in the league. I was one of them and was ignoring stolen bases the whole draft, but the rest of the league was basically starting near 0 stolen bases and everyone was overpaying for them, this made guys who hit .280+ with limited power and limited speed really cheap. So the 3 of us who kept base stealers were having a field day on the other categories while everyone else desperately tried to acquire base stealers.

RainmakerMember since 2016
10 years ago

I think the part of the equation your missing is that many of the categories are correlated in outcomes…..a player that will support you in Runs typically also provides support in AVG, likewise for RBI and HR, and to the greatest extent ERA, WHIP, Wins and Ks. What that means is that each marginal dollar spent in Runs for example doesn’t just increase Runs, but also increases AVG. But as you also noted, Saves and SB tend to not really have correlations…..so marginal dollars spent in SB and Saves, don’t have additional value

There’s probably some exercise to be done to go back through to figure out the correlation and map the dollars spent in the those league champions you cited earlier, but what I’ve found it to mean is that the pitching categories are cheaper to invest in. I aim to take 1st in W, ERA, Ks, and WHIP, 3rd in Saves and SBs, and 5th in RBI, R, AVG, and HR. Per your charts, you can spend relatively little and still managed a 5th place finish those cats.

Stephen
10 years ago

Hey Tanner, really enjoyed the article, it makes a lot of sense. I too like spreadsheets but I am not quite a “nerd”. Care to share any tips? Specifically for tracking drafts