Archive for Roto

Over the years, I’ve made several attempts to adjust both hitter and pitcher performance statistics based on the quality of their opposition, but I’ve never settled on a method that I really like. Those failures will not stop me from trying. In this attempt, I’ve opted to use a plus/minus approach similar to those used in modern defensive statistics like Defensive Runs Saved. Here’s how it works in this case. Whenever a batter records a hit, I am giving him credit of 1.0 hits minus the batting average allowed this season by the pitcher he is facing. So if that hit comes against Clayton Kershaw, that’s 1.0 minus 0.185 or 0.815 hits over what that pitcher would be expected to allow in a typical at-bat. If instead that hit comes against Alfredo Simon, that’s 1.0 minus 0.348 or just 0.652 hits. Meanwhile, if the batter fails to get a hit, he receives 0.0 minus the pitcher’s batting average allowed, which would be -0.185 hits against Kershaw and -0.348 hits against Simon.

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It’s that time of year again, American League starting pitcher tier update time! I still pay no attention to ERA, as it’s not a metric I use for evaluation and ranking pitchers for rest of season performance. Player movement between tiers will only occur when there’s a change in underlying skill, pitch mix, or velocity. Injured pitchers with non-arm injuries expected back relatively soon will remain in the tier they had been. Pitchers with arm-related injuries with up-in-the-air return dates have been removed. I just can’t speculate on that kind of stuff.

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It once again is time for the monthly update for my AL Outfield Tiers! As always, these are my rest of the season ranks for the position and you can check out my previous versions below as well as Alex Chamberlain’s NL versions. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s time for an updated list of potential HR/FB rate decliners! As usual, I scanned the batted ball distance leaderboard, matched each hitter with his HR/FB rate, and identified those hitters whose distance suggests major HR/FB rate downside. Yesterday, I looked at the potential surgers.

As a reminder, please be aware that the other two components of my xHR/FB rate equation are missing from this analysis. So to avoid giving wrong advice, I have stayed away from discussing the hitters in the middle of the distance ranking. Also remember that this ignores park effects, which certainly plays a role.

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It’s time for an updated list of potential HR/FB rate surgers! As usual, I scanned the batted ball distance leaderboard, matched each hitter with his HR/FB rate, and identified those hitters whose distance suggests major HR/FB rate upside.

Please be aware that the other two components of my xHR/FB rate equation are missing from this analysis. So to avoid giving wrong advice, it’s why I have stayed away from discussing the hitters in the middle of the distance ranking. Also remember that this ignores park effects, which certainly plays a role.

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Things have been tough for Trevor Rosenthal lately, to put it nicely. Tonight’s game certainly did not help the Cardinals confidence in him, as he blew a two-run lead in the 9th. Rosenthal didn’t retire a batter after giving up a lead-off double, a walk, and then a walk-off three run homer by Adam Lind to seal the deal. Rosenthal has blown four of his last seven opportunities, and has not thrown a clean full inning since June 9th. His ERA is now up to 5.63 after this latest appearance. For more on Rosenthal’s struggles, check out this article by Paul Swydan. Regarding the current situation in St. Louis, nothing has been said whether or not he will lose the closer role just yet, but if I owned him, I would be prepared for a change coming up soon.
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This week I wanted to take a look at the three top 1B prospects in AAA. I am not suggesting that these players will definitely get called up this season, but these are players I wanted to look at further either because of performance or because of opportunity. The player may not have a direct path right now, but could be moved creating that necessary path. The player may not be called up this season, but may provide value in those deep keeper leagues where minor leaguers hold value and could be an asset next season. Note that this article was written Thursday morning, so some of the stats may be off by a day.
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Pitchers seemingly undergo true talent level changes far more frequently than hitters do, especially on a game by game basis. The velocity and movement of a pitcher’s pitches, along with his command, on any given day go a long way toward determining his fate. Let’s talk about two pitchers who struggled earlier in the year. One of whom we may never know for sure what the root cause of his issues were, while the other was almost surely injury related.

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At this point in the season many people are looking at grabbing the next potential impact prospect to come up. While it is always fun to speculate, it is a kind of a crap shoot. We would all love to believe that the Pirates are going to be calling up Tyler Glasnow and Josh Bell or that the Astros are going to be calling up AJ Reed, but no one really knows their timetables. If you are fighting to stay in the hunt, it may be more apt to grab some guys that are more likely to make an impact now. So, here are some guys that are making (or will be) an impact right now that are widely available on fantasy waiver wires. Read the rest of this entry »

The summer is heating up which means the standings are starting to solidify in your league. Big trades are going down and you find yourself uncharacteristically indecisive – do I make this deal or not? Will it actually improve my team enough to matter?

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