Looking at 3 First Base Prospects: Bell, Vogelbach, & Reed
This week I wanted to take a look at the three top 1B prospects in AAA. I am not suggesting that these players will definitely get called up this season, but these are players I wanted to look at further either because of performance or because of opportunity. The player may not have a direct path right now, but could be moved creating that necessary path. The player may not be called up this season, but may provide value in those deep keeper leagues where minor leaguers hold value and could be an asset next season. Note that this article was written Thursday morning, so some of the stats may be off by a day.
Josh Bell– 1B, Pirates
Josh Bell is not a secret. Based on what he is doing in the minor leagues, Bell appears to be a legit 1B prospect and is the Pirates first baseman of the future. He walks, and is hitting for good power this go around in AAA. He is currently triple-slashing .316/.405/.525. The problem for Bell this season is that the Pirates first basemen have ranked 11th in wRC+ amongst all major league first basemen. The platoon of John Jaso and David Freese (with a sprinkle of Sean Rodriguez and Jason Rogers) has worked well for the Pirates. The Pirates need pitching and trading Bell would certainly land them a legit pitcher, but I don’t see that happening. The Pirates are way back in the division and are starting to fade in the Wild Card, so trading a key future piece does not seem very plausible. Even though their current platoon is working, this is not a sustainable long-term plan.
Bell right now plays as a strong keeper who should be a full-time starter next season. If Jaso were to go down with injury (who is not a beacon of health), then the Pirates would seriously have to consider bringing Bell up. I really like the walk rate where he has been over 10% since 2015 at each level. The K rate (16.1%) shot up about five percentage points this season, but is still a nice number. If he does get called up for whatever reason, jump all over him, especially if it’s a keeper league.
Dan Vogelbach– 1B, Cubs
Dan Vogelbach is also a victim of having a path to the majors blocked, and unlike Bell, this is not a path that will open up as soon as next season. As much as I like what Vogelbach has done in AAA, it would take quite the player to unseat Anthony Rizzo at 1B. Vogelbach is a three-outcome lovers dream as he either K’s, walks, or mashes. He is currently triple-slashing .300/.421/.525. Not a very versatile fielder from the information I have gathered, so a Schwarber-like move to left is not happening.
Guys like Vogelbach are too valuable not to start playing soon. I don’t think there is a fit for him with the Cubs right now with Rizzo ahead of him, and I don’t see them moving Rizzo’s position in order to get Vogelbach playing time. He’s a guy the Cubs could move and land a serious piece. The problem is it seems the Cubs are mainly looking to upgrade their bullpen and Vogelbach is more valuable than a reliever. Then again, I am not an expert nor an insider on how teams value these players. Would it be worth the Cubs time to use Vogelbach to get one of the Yankees ace relievers? Either way, I just don’t see his bat not being used in the majors all season, or even next season. Treat him like Josh Bell and prepare for something next season, and be happy if you get some time this year.
AJ Reed -1B, Astros
Unlike the first two guys mentioned, Reed does have a path to the majors. Jeff Lunhow said Reed is close to a major league promotion. Astros first basemen have the 8th-worst wRC+ in the majors. Tyler White came up firing on all cylinders, but then flamed out rather expectedly and was optioned to AAA last week. So now Marwin Gonzalez is the strong side of a platoon at 1b who has more value as a utility player rather than an everyday first baseman. Reed is triple-slashing .261/.343/.495. Not as stout as the previous two first basemen, but could still be an upgrade over what the Astros first basemen have put up so far (.237/.306/.397).
I like the fact that Reed walks (11.5 BB% in 2016), but I am concerned about the strikeouts at the higher level (23 K% in 2016). Tyler White put up similar K and BB rates at the major league level after controlling the strike zone better in the minors than Reed, so that is some reason for pessimism. Unlike White, however, Reed has shown more consistent power throughout his minor league career. I don’t think Reed will carry your team when he is called up, but he will get on-base with some power and carries significant keeper potential.
Do you think there’s an off chance Rowdy ‘Rowdy’ Tellez might get a call up next year, with the Jays possibly losing both their sluggers to FA?
Not yet, I don’t think at least. He seems a little young to be called up next season and is putting up solid numbers in AA, but in order to garner a call-up next season, I would think he has to tear up AAA since he is still so young.
I know he’s not a first baseman but what is Jorge Alfaro’s ETA?
I think bell would also be called up if an OF hits the DL and with Cutch struggling through his thumb issue, this might be his best opportunity. Bell is a better RF and is only playing 1B due to the logjam.
Good point. I would have to think the Pirates were confident in Bell’s ability to help them make the playoffs, since his development at 1B seems to be the best move long-term with the way their roster is currently constructed.
I’m a fan of neither team but Vogelbach for Andrew Miller would make sense for both teams if the Cubs are trying to solidify their pen. Miller has two years of contract left at $9M per season which is affordable for an elite closer and Vogelbach being a lefty would play that much better at Yankee stadium. Mark Teixeira 2.0? Younger Mark Teixeira of course. Offset any perceived difference of value from either team with lesser prospects, sign the paperwork and light the cigars.
That’s a pretty risky sell to Yankees fans. One of the more dominant relievers in baseball is worth more than a coinflip prospect. Maybe 3 coinflips. Baez, Schwarber & Vogelbach would be enticing possibly. All three have MAJOR red flags but also have good potential. All could easily bust out too. All I’m saying is it should take more than one unproven guy to get the best lefty reliever in baseball (arguably). Three unproven guys sounds better.
Those 3 combined would probably land one of the best STARTING pitchers on the planet. Yes, Miller has 2 years of control, but when he was just a rental he returned…Eduardo Rodriguez, who barely cracked the top 100 prospects at the time. No way that the Cubs even consider that, and no way that’s the Yankees asking price.
cubs fan? My point is that one of those coinflips isn’t going to cut it for an actual major leaguer, and a dominant one. Yea he’s a reliever, but he’s the most dominant one available, locked up, in a seller market. Vogelbach- not athletic, can’t field, a DH. Completely unproven.
Schwarber- not athletic, can’t field, a DH. Decent small sample size. Owned by lefties. Unproven
Baez- athletic, awesome D, strikeout king. Unproven.
Andrew Miller- nobody can hit him. PROVEN.
For a coinflip guy? Cmon
Maybe that’s why I’m not a MLB GM haha. It could be Vogelbach, another prospect and a useful or decent position player. Vogelbach, Soler and a minor league SP? Yes, Andrew Miller is an elite proven closer but the Yankees also happen to have a surplus of elite closers (which is a good thing). Seems to me that the Cubs have enough talent in their system and surplus at certain positions to facilitate a deal that works well for both teams. The Yankees already have some solid prospects in their farm system and have the chance to create an exciting, young core for their future by attaining more talent while the Cubs could strengthen an area of need presently. Like I said, I’m a fan of neither team (although I admit I’m an Andrew Miller fan and what he does for my fantasy team) but I think the Cubs and Yanks have the pieces to work out a deal beneficial for both parties.
For sure it does seem like a good match! I think it’s interesting to note how the stock of nearly every cubs HOF prospect has dropped this year. Almora, meh. Schwarber, meh. Soler, meh. Russell, meh. Baez, meh. Bryant & Rizzo seem like pretty decent players though. Not a future star in the bunch, but collectively, it’s a nice batch of pretty good players. Before the season the talk was that any one of these guys could fetch a darn good starter. I think that hype has cooled quite a bit. This deadline should be super exciting
Whoops, my fat thumb got the down button when I meant to vote your last comment up. I think many of the Cubs prospects have a chance to be better than average players, it may take a little time though. We hype up prospects so much that many times if they don’t hit the ground running like Trout, Pujols, Braun, Kershaw, etc that we dismiss them as busts. Sometimes it simply takes an extra year or two, or four.. Seems like pitchers need a little extra seasoning. Arrieta was highly touted coming up with the O’s, didn’t perform right away and many considered him to be a bust after a couple years, or at least not frontline material. Now look at him! Although it’s a smaller sample size of success, Pomeranz, Duffy, Gausman and a few others who were once top pitching prospects and then considered busts or average players at best, have recently performed to their pedigree, simply a few years later than expected. There are hundreds more examples of top prospects who actually ARE busts and never perform to their potential but I think the Cubs have some good prospects if they can afford to give them time to mature. I also agree some of the hype and shimmer of the Cubs prospects has dulled since last season but they still have interesting pieces to trade or be patient with.
You are right that vogelbach alone won’t land Miller but there is no way the Cubs give up schwarber and Baez for a reliever. That being said people are underrating what a top reliever is worth when they say vogelbach is too valuable for a reliever. Top relievers command high prices (see Kimbrel and Giles) and vogelbach is not that good of a prospect. He never was in the top100 and like Tyler white he is mostly living on his solid hit tool and great plate discipline. Granted he has a little more natural power than white but his batspeed is questionable and game power only broke out this year
In the hitter friendly PCL. I like vogelbach but his tools are not that good and I’m not sure he can make it against elite pitching. His plate discipline is a big asset but once pitchers get a scouting report on him he will have a harder time sitting on pitches he likes ( just like white who got killed on pitches on the outside corner after pitchers adjusted and hasn’t been able to adjust back so far).
Also it is a little inaccurate to call Vogs a three true outcome player. His K rates have been about average to slightly better.