Looking at 3 First Base Prospects: Bell, Vogelbach, & Reed

This week I wanted to take a look at the three top 1B prospects in AAA. I am not suggesting that these players will definitely get called up this season, but these are players I wanted to look at further either because of performance or because of opportunity. The player may not have a direct path right now, but could be moved creating that necessary path. The player may not be called up this season, but may provide value in those deep keeper leagues where minor leaguers hold value and could be an asset next season. Note that this article was written Thursday morning, so some of the stats may be off by a day.

Josh Bell– 1B, Pirates

Josh Bell is not a secret. Based on what he is doing in the minor leagues, Bell appears to be a legit 1B prospect and is the Pirates first baseman of the future. He walks, and is hitting for good power this go around in AAA. He is currently triple-slashing .316/.405/.525. The problem for Bell this season is that the Pirates first basemen have ranked 11^th in wRC+ amongst all major league first basemen. The platoon of John Jaso and David Freese (with a sprinkle of Sean Rodriguez and Jason Rogers) has worked well for the Pirates. The Pirates need pitching and trading Bell would certainly land them a legit pitcher, but I don’t see that happening. The Pirates are way back in the division and are starting to fade in the Wild Card, so trading a key future piece does not seem very plausible. Even though their current platoon is working, this is not a sustainable long-term plan.

Bell right now plays as a strong keeper who should be a full-time starter next season. If Jaso were to go down with injury (who is not a beacon of health), then the Pirates would seriously have to consider bringing Bell up. I really like the walk rate where he has been over 10% since 2015 at each level. The K rate (16.1%) shot up about five percentage points this season, but is still a nice number. If he does get called up for whatever reason, jump all over him, especially if it’s a keeper league.

Dan Vogelbach– 1B, Cubs

Dan Vogelbach is also a victim of having a path to the majors blocked, and unlike Bell, this is not a path that will open up as soon as next season. As much as I like what Vogelbach has done in AAA, it would take quite the player to unseat Anthony Rizzo at 1B. Vogelbach is a three-outcome lovers dream as he either K’s, walks, or mashes. He is currently triple-slashing .300/.421/.525. Not a very versatile fielder from the information I have gathered, so a Schwarber-like move to left is not happening.

Guys like Vogelbach are too valuable not to start playing soon. I don’t think there is a fit for him with the Cubs right now with Rizzo ahead of him, and I don’t see them moving Rizzo’s position in order to get Vogelbach playing time. He’s a guy the Cubs could move and land a serious piece. The problem is it seems the Cubs are mainly looking to upgrade their bullpen and Vogelbach is more valuable than a reliever. Then again, I am not an expert nor an insider on how teams value these players. Would it be worth the Cubs time to use Vogelbach to get one of the Yankees ace relievers? Either way, I just don’t see his bat not being used in the majors all season, or even next season. Treat him like Josh Bell and prepare for something next season, and be happy if you get some time this year.

AJ Reed -1B, Astros

Unlike the first two guys mentioned, Reed does have a path to the majors. Jeff Lunhow said Reed is close to a major league promotion. Astros first basemen have the 8^th-worst wRC+ in the majors. Tyler White came up firing on all cylinders, but then flamed out rather expectedly and was optioned to AAA last week. So now Marwin Gonzalez is the strong side of a platoon at 1b who has more value as a utility player rather than an everyday first baseman. Reed is triple-slashing .261/.343/.495. Not as stout as the previous two first basemen, but could still be an upgrade over what the Astros first basemen have put up so far (.237/.306/.397).

I like the fact that Reed walks (11.5 BB% in 2016), but I am concerned about the strikeouts at the higher level (23 K% in 2016). Tyler White put up similar K and BB rates at the major league level after controlling the strike zone better in the minors than Reed, so that is some reason for pessimism. Unlike White, however, Reed has shown more consistent power throughout his minor league career. I don’t think Reed will carry your team when he is called up, but he will get on-base with some power and carries significant keeper potential.