A Shortcut for Projecting Pitchers ROS

by Trey Baughn

June 22, 2016

The summer is heating up which means the standings are starting to solidify in your league. Big trades are going down and you find yourself uncharacteristically indecisive – do I make this deal or not? Will it actually improve my team enough to matter?

Trade and player evaluation can take time, as can league-specific scoring calculations, so thankfully for those playing Ottoneu I’ll share a quick shortcut to projecting pitchers for the rest of the season. Since Home Runs Allowed are the plague in Ottoneu points leagues that are founded on linear weights, they play a critical role in evaluating any pitcher over the course of the next few months. In addition, you’ll need to account for strikeouts and walks, which are the primary indicators of pitcher’s skill readily available. Using just these three quick stats you can get an estimated value of pitchers for the rest of the season.

Here’s the shortcut calculation: K’s – BB’s – HRA’s

Using Depth Charts ROS season projections, I’ve listed the Top 100 pitchers ROS based upon this shortcut formula, and compared it to the true calculation of scoring projections for each pitcher in both points formats (FGPTS and SABR).

Top 100 SP ROS

	Name	Team	IP	SO-BB-HR	RANK	FGPTS	RANK	SABR	RANK	playerid
1	Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	125	128	1	841	1	772	1	2036
2	Max Scherzer	Nationals	126	112	2	729	2	680	2	3137
3	Chris Sale	White Sox	128	106	3	704	3	670	3	10603
4	Noah Syndergaard	Mets	114	98	4	669	7	630	7	11762
5	David Price	Red Sox	131	94	5	672	5	662	4	3184
6	Jose Fernandez	Marlins	98	91	6	610	11	567	14	11530
7	Corey Kluber	Indians	123	91	6	671	6	649	5	2429
8	Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	104	89	8	596	14	563	17	10131
9	Madison Bumgarner	Giants	120	88	9	663	8	627	8	5524
10	Jake Arrieta	Cubs	119	86	10	688	4	644	6	4153
11	Jon Lester	Cubs	120	83	11	639	10	616	10	4930
12	Carlos Carrasco	Indians	108	77	12	566	18	546	22	6632
13	Jacob deGrom	Mets	115	76	13	607	12	587	11	10954
14	Zack Greinke	Diamondbacks	117	72	14	599	13	583	12	1943
15	Johnny Cueto	Giants	123	70	15	653	9	627	8	6893
16	Chris Archer	Rays	111	69	16	555	19	533	24	6345
17	Matt Harvey	Mets	116	68	17	583	15	567	14	11713
18	Gerrit Cole	Pirates	113	65	18	573	17	566	16	13125
19	Jose Quintana	White Sox	115	64	19	547	21	554	20	11423
20	Jeff Samardzija	Giants	112	62	20	551	20	548	21	3254
21	Danny Salazar	Indians	93	62	20	472	36	447	45	5867
22	Dallas Keuchel	Astros	119	61	22	579	16	575	13	9434
23	Justin Verlander	Tigers	116	61	22	533	22	526	25	8700
24	Aaron Nola	Phillies	97	59	24	463	39	459	39	16149
25	John Lackey	Cubs	102	59	24	493	31	482	33	1507
26	Masahiro Tanaka	Yankees	106	58	26	483	34	482	33	15764
27	Julio Teheran	Braves	116	58	26	505	29	497	29	6797
28	Kenta Maeda	Dodgers	99	57	28	485	33	474	36	18498
29	Steven Matz	Mets	92	56	29	468	37	457	41	13361
30	Michael Pineda	Yankees	85	56	29	401	62	400	62	5372
31	Cole Hamels	Rangers	117	56	29	509	27	507	28	4972
32	Drew Pomeranz	Padres	93	55	32	464	38	437	47	11426
33	Carlos Martinez	Cardinals	99	53	33	493	30	490	30	11682
34	Francisco Liriano	Pirates	102	52	34	490	32	470	37	3201
35	Yu Darvish	Rangers	72	51	35	369	77	347	98	13074
36	Wei-Yin Chen	Marlins	108	51	35	478	35	486	31	13071
37	Jon Gray	Rockies	97	51	35	424	50	433	48	14916
38	Collin McHugh	Astros	103	51	35	454	43	458	40	7531
39	Hisashi Iwakuma	Mariners	102	51	35	444	46	450	42	13048
40	Adam Wainwright	Cardinals	108	50	40	509	28	516	27	2233
41	Sonny Gray	Athletics	117	50	40	531	24	526	25	12768
42	Matt Shoemaker	Angels	89	50	40	406	59	403	56	4776
43	Drew Smyly	Rays	80	50	40	372	75	357	88	11760
44	Vincent Velasquez	Phillies	78	49	44	367	79	347	98	11189
45	Scott Kazmir	Dodgers	88	49	44	415	55	402	58	4897
46	Felix Hernandez	Mariners	83	48	46	410	57	400	62	4772
47	Gio Gonzalez	Nationals	95	48	46	453	44	448	43	7448
48	Jake Odorizzi	Rays	91	48	46	412	56	402	58	6397
49	Taijuan Walker	Mariners	94	48	46	398	63	397	68	11836
50	Andrew Miller	Yankees	37	47	50	324	111	293	143	6785
51	Rich Hill	Athletics	92	47	50	448	45	424	52	4806
52	Carlos Rodon	White Sox	93	46	52	408	58	398	66	16137
53	Lance McCullers	Astros	88	45	53	419	52	402	58	14120
54	Kevin Gausman	Orioles	102	45	53	419	51	425	51	14107
55	Marcus Stroman	Blue Jays	105	44	55	461	40	475	35	13431
56	Tim Lincecum		140	44	55	532	23	545	23	5705
57	Ian Kennedy	Royals	107	44	55	396	65	400	62	6986
58	Michael Wacha	Cardinals	98	43	58	436	47	433	48	14078
59	Rick Porcello	Red Sox	91	43	58	392	68	411	55	2717
60	Patrick Corbin	Diamondbacks	102	43	58	433	48	446	46	9323
61	Nate Karns	Mariners	91	43	58	393	66	383	72	12638
62	Dellin Betances	Yankees	37	42	62	291	147	260	181	6216
63	Robbie Ray	Diamondbacks	86	42	62	386	71	379	74	11486
64	Jordan Zimmermann	Tigers	108	42	62	428	49	448	43	4505
65	Anthony DeSclafani	Reds	99	41	65	417	54	426	50	13050
66	Jeremy Hellickson	Phillies	88	40	66	338	95	352	93	4371
67	James Shields	White Sox	105	40	66	393	67	401	61	7059
68	Kyle Hendricks	Cubs	81	39	68	375	73	375	76	12049
69	James Paxton	Mariners	83	39	68	380	72	375	76	11828
70	Mike Fiers	Astros	89	39	68	354	87	355	91	7754
71	Chris Tillman	Orioles	109	39	68	417	53	420	53	5279
72	Kenley Jansen	Dodgers	36	38	72	360	81	339	103	3096
73	Nathan Eovaldi	Yankees	86	38	72	356	85	371	80	9132
74	Jason Hammel	Cubs	74	37	74	326	107	324	114	4538
75	Mike Leake	Cardinals	114	37	74	458	41	485	32	10130
76	Josh Tomlin	Indians	81	37	74	304	134	324	114	9388
77	Hector Santiago	Angels	104	37	74	405	60	398	66	4026
78	Marco Estrada	Blue Jays	108	37	74	401	61	390	70	1118
79	Kyle Lohse		161	37	74	518	25	559	18	739
80	Tyson Ross	Padres	66	36	80	340	93	332	108	7872
81	Josh Johnson		82	36	80	356	84	358	86	4567
82	Ricky Nolasco	Twins	79	36	80	315	122	339	103	3830
83	Junior Guerra	Brewers	72	36	80	309	129	304	135	5702
84	Jimmy Nelson	Brewers	98	36	80	396	64	403	56	10547
85	Craig Kimbrel	Red Sox	37	35	85	344	92	321	118	6655
86	Michael Fulmer	Tigers	85	35	85	332	102	344	100	13218
87	Ervin Santana	Twins	106	35	85	387	70	414	54	3200
88	Danny Duffy	Royals	73	34	88	322	116	309	128	3542
89	Jerad Eickhoff	Phillies	79	34	88	314	124	317	122	12664
90	Aroldis Chapman	Yankees	31	33	90	308	130	283	155	10233
91	Alex Wood	Dodgers	62	33	90	293	145	291	146	13781
92	Chad Bettis	Rockies	89	33	90	339	94	362	84	10587
93	Matt Wisler	Braves	97	33	90	348	90	368	82	12804
94	Dan Straily	Reds	80	33	90	292	146	294	142	9460
95	Jake Peavy	Giants	82	32	95	350	89	352	93	1051
96	Yordano Ventura	Royals	86	32	95	358	82	361	85	11855
97	CC Sabathia	Yankees	87	32	95	334	100	349	97	404
98	Matt Moore	Rays	75	32	95	303	136	301	140	1890
99	Aaron Harang		166	32	95	511	26	555	19	1451
100	Andrew Cashner	Padres	88	31	100	360	80	374	78	8782

As you can see, the rankings ROS look fairly similar, but be reminded we’re just using a quick shortcut to estimate expect value. Hopefully this handy shortcut will help you as you made key rotation decisions this summer. We can discuss the differences in these pitcher rankings (and value of the shortcut) in the comments.

9 Comments

Oldest

Newest Most Voted

Inline Feedbacks

View all comments

OddBall Herrera

7 years ago

Shame on all of those with lower expected value than Josh Johnson

Trey Baughn

Reply to OddBall Herrera

JJ is a true sleeper. Tim Lincecum might actually be the biggest surprise considering the difference in ranking between the shortcut method and actual scoring calculations…but that looks entirely driven by his 140 ROS projected IP for some reason…

Avi24

Reply to Trey Baughn

Somehow Buehrle was not on this list, yet the others were included. Very puzzled.

Nelson S.

Like poor Joe Ross, whos below Aaron Harang even. Harang!

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG