AL Tiered Outfielder Ranks: June 2016
It once again is time for the monthly update for my AL Outfield Tiers! As always, these are my rest of the season ranks for the position and you can check out my previous versions below as well as Alex Chamberlain’s NL versions.
AL Tiered Outfielder Rankings: Preseason
NL Outfield Rankings: March/April
AL Tiered Outfielder Rankings: April 2016
AL Tiered Outfielder Rankings: May
This month I have named my tiers based upon my favorite breakfast foods.
Tier 1: BACON
Nothing is better than bacon.
Tier 2: Biscuits and Gravy
Mookie is the biscuits and Springer is the gravy.
Tier 3: Pancakes
Desmond is swinging at pitches outside of the zone less and striking out less. I almost put him in Tier 2, but he has a really high BABIP and HR/FB rate which will lead to some obvious regression. However, I still believe in a lot of the adjustments he made at the plate this season.
I keep waiting for Mark Trumbo to fall off, but it is hard not to buy into the production. In seasons past he has faded in the second half, so I would sell him if I could get good value.
I got a fair amount of grief for my ranking of Adam Jones in the May update, but he had a pretty great June hitting ten home runs and a .315/.348/.639 line. His hard contact percentage for the month of June was over 40% and he is not swinging at pitches outside the zone as much as he did last season. He is a good bet to get to 30 home runs and get his average up towards .280.
Tier 4: Monkey Bread
Jacoby Ellsbury
I was torn about moving Lorenzo Cain down into this tier, but with the recent hamstring strain and his history of hamstring injuries, I thought I needed to play it safe.
With nineteen home runs already, I feel pretty good about being so high on Khris Davis preseason. He has raised his average and on base percentage each month and the power plays in any park. Since he is still under club control for a few more seasons, I don’t expect him to get moved in Oakland’s yearly fire sale, which is unfortunate because you’d love to see him in a contender’s line up.
Michael Saunders has been a godsend to fantasy squads this year. He made a swing adjustment this year and it is really paying off. Of course, not tripping over sprinkler heads helps too. The question rest of the way is health, but given that I think he can hit another 14-17 home runs in that great Blue Jays lineup. The average will come down but I would be surprised if it dropped below .260 rest of the way.
Justin Upton has started putting it together. While it may not show in the results quite yet, he is walking more and striking out less. I still believe he gets over 20 home runs and double digit steals. You aren’t getting what you paid for him on draft day, but there are very encouraging signs.
Tier 5: Chicken Fried Steak and Eggs
Jackie Bradley Jr
Melky is quietly putting together a pretty nice year. He is hitting .294/.344/.462 while walking more and striking out less than last season. He doubled his home run total in the month of June and is looking more like the 2014 version of himself.
I recently wrote about Rajai Davis as a guy who is under owned in fantasy.
I still can’t completely buy into Tyler Naquin, but his numbers have been out of this world.
Tyler Naquin since Byrd suspension:.339/.422/.821/1.243
— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) June 29, 2016
It is easy to forget that he does have some pedigree. However, regression is coming. He has a .458 BABIP and a 31.1% strikeout rate.
Kevin Pillar has hit 5 home runs and has hit .290/.317/.500 in the month of June. It is nice to see signs of life from him, but he is still striking out more and walking at an abysmal 2.9% for the month. I think the true talent level is something in between April/May and June.
Tier 6: Eggs Benedict
Steven Souza
It is the injury tier!
Martinez is supposed to miss another 2-4 weeks, but that seems pretty optimistic.
Michael Brantley is hitting off a tee, but there is still no timetable to return.
Sano is on a rehab assignment and should be back soon. While, Souza should be starting his own pretty soon.
Tier 7: BACON
Dickerson will turn it around, Dickerson will turn it around, Dickerson will turn it around. Has it happened yet? No? I still believe it will, but at some point it becomes harder and harder to stand by my convictions.
Carlos Beltran is having an amazing season, but who knows what kind of situation he ends up at the trade deadline and if he can stay healthy rest of the way.
I’ve been an ardent supporter of Max Kepler and it is nice seeing him getting the playing time, but I worry that will be lessened once Sano returns.
Tier 8: Waffles
Rua has been a pretty successful platoon player that as had a pretty great June. Still, outside of the deepest of leagues, he can’t be trusted to get regular playing time.
If you have time, go listen to Paul Sporer’s impression of Whit Merrifield.
Tier 9: Omelets
The minor leaguer tier! At some point all of these guys will be up, but your guess is as good as mine to when.
Tier 10: Coffee and Cigarettes and BACON
It bothered me that I wasn’t at a round number. Ranking 75 outfielders was better than 71.
Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.
Two questions:
1) Why is Bacon your tier 1 and tier 7 brekky food? Is there good bacon and bad bacon?
2) Tier 10 seems a bit harsh for HS Kim. Is this due to his huge BABIP despite the grounder-happy ways?
Thought the same thing about Kim
1) Bacon is amazing
2) Even if Kim gets better, he has a limited upside in terms of power, speed, or playing time.
Did I miss Jacoby Ellsbury’s tier ranking? Where would he fall on this tasty breakfast tier.
Thanks for catching that. He is added to the bottom of the 4th tier.
Benintendi probably belongs on that minor league list – his combination of opportunity + potential makes him preferable to a lot of the guys you do have listed.
Unlikely with the depth Boston already has that he makes an impact before September.
Are we really that sure about Mazara yet?
1st 40 games: 325/368/500
Next 29 games: 239/303/349
Before 2016 he had 88 PA above AA and his minor league numbers, while good, were not elite. I have no doubt he has a strong future ahead of him, but does he really belong in the same category as Jose Bautista right now?
I am pretty sure about him. Mature approach. I have no doubts he will be fine.
Mazara’s K% and BB% have been relatively constant each month since his call up. His batted ball profile has also remained relatively constant except for his pull, center, and opposite field tendencies. He is still a line-drive hitter, but in April he was hitting 45% of his balls in play to center. That dipped to the mid-30s in May, and below 30% in June. We’ve also seen his HR/FB decline in June, despite his hard-hit rate being relatively in line with his April and May percentages.
Overall, I think his numbers to-date are an accurate reflection of his productivity. His BABIP stands at .308 and his xBABIP is .310. His HR/FB% is a healthy 16.2% which might have even a little more regression but given his strength I would expect it to be above league average.
Going forward, I think it’s reasonable to expect him to hit .270-.290 and hit about 20-25 HRs over a full season, all while hitting 3rd in a very good Texas lineup. The biggest concern I have about him is his ability to hit left-handed pitching. His .256 BA against lefties isn’t terrible, but he seems to sacrifice power in order to make contact against lefties as his SLG% is just .308. To this point, he is receiving regular playing time against southpaws, but he could be a platooning option.
On Kepler and playing time, if the Twins are smart, when Sano is activated, Park will be sent down to AAA, Sano will play at DH rather than be a 270-lb experiment in the outfield, and Kepler will continue to play every day in RF.
That is a big “If.”
I think it is more likely that Plouffe gets moved and Sano returns to third base, but I like your thinking.
Billy Burns belongs in the Soggy Cereal category.
French toast is better than bacon, the most overrated foodstuff.
How dare you?!?
French toast goes with syrup, sugar, and jelly. And Bacon. Bacon goes with absolutely every other food on the planet with the possible exception of plain yogurt.
Bacon yogurt sounds amazing.