Let us not talk falsely now: Most of us Fantasy geeks know baseball stats better than we know baseball. We understand stats from the inside, but baseball incompletely and from the outside. And since everyone’s got full access to the same full set of stats and the predictions based thereon, we all know or think we know exactly the same things. There’s too much confusion; we can’t get no relief.

But what about the guys who are stat geeks, but also know baseball? Do their direct observations of the game itself, unmediated by statistics, offer a way out of the inferno of stat-geek parity? Do they have an edge over us, or would they have one, if they weren’t generously sharing with us what they see? Read the rest of this entry »

There were a lot of save opportunities today and the closers (one set-up man) were perfect in converting these saves (or at least when I published this). I won’t get into every save tonight, just the more interesting ones.

Sean Dolittle faced one batter in the 8th inning tonight after surrendering a home run the night before down by a run. Instead of turning to Doolittle for the four-out save, Bob Melvin went to Ryan Madson for the first time since he gave up two runs to the Angels. Madson wasn’t perfect and gave up an unearned run, but he did get himself his third save of the season. Using Doolitle on Friday was not necessarily ideal for Melvin, so there will still be some save opportunities ahead for Doolittle. Doolittle has given up runs in his previous two appearances, so it’s not a rock solid hold on the closer role, which seems to be inconsistent anyway with the A’s using their top relievers in high leverage situations for the most part.
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• After a four game slide Terry Collins didn’t play around today calling on Jeurys Familia for a five-out save. Familia answered the call pitching around a couple of hits for his second save of the year. Hansel Robles got the last two outs of the seventh (both via strikeout) and Jerry Blevins got the call to start the eighth inning with the left-handed Ichiro and Christian Yelich due up. Addison Reed still figures to be the main eighth inning set up man with Blevins playing the matchups. Although he doesn’t have the “closer experience” like Reed, Robles has some real strikeout potential and could end the year in a more prominent role behind Familia.

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• Although he nailed down the last two save opportunities for the Phillies, Jeanmar Gomez has not yet been named closer with Pete Mackanin saying “I don’t want to jump to conclusions here […] Let’s keep playing it out until we see what happens.” Mackanin won’t say it, but I will – Gomez is the closer in Philadelphia. He may not have a long leash if he were to start struggling but David Hernandez and company likely won’t be seeing the next opportunity.

• Craig Kimbrel had a forgettable night for the Red Sox. Entering the ninth inning in a tie game Kimbrel allowed three runs with Chris Davis taking him deep for a 449 foot, three run homer. Kimbrel’s velocity (97.6 mph) was right in line with what you would expect from him and he still ranks among the elite closers in the game. Keep walking, nothing left to see here except future saves and loads of strikeouts.

• Fernando Rodney was able to shoot his first arrow of the year, closing the door on the Phillies today. Rodney is unlikely to be a safe haven for saves all year, whether it’s due to poor performance and a role change or a strong performance and a mid-season trade but owners should be happy with the clean save nonetheless. Rodney is certainly secure for now but Brandon Maurer is the guy to own as a handcuff.

• Jumbo Diaz received the ball in the eighth inning tonight and blew the lead for the Reds. It’s early on but Diaz’ 3.86/6.64/4.95 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line is certainly less than impressive. J.J. Hoover isn’t a stud by any means but with Diaz and Tony Cingrani (who gave up two runs of his own for the loss) struggling his job remains secure.

•Quick Hits: David Robertson threw a scoreless ninth for his third save of the year. Robertson’s ERA was a little inflated last year at 3.41 but his underlying numbers were strong as normal and he remains a great option. After Chris Davis gave the O’s the lead, Britton pitched around a Mookie Betts solo shot for his third save as well. Jonathan Papelbon (4), Mark Melancon (3) and Hector Rondon (2) also recorded clean saves tonight.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

It’s Week 1 of the MLB season, so it’s time to obsess over velocity. It’s a topic that several other FanGraphs writers have touched on, including Jeff Sullivan in his article about Felix Hernandez yesterday. As a fantasy player, I try not to overact to early-season velocity changes for established starters, but I do like to peruse the early velocity leaderboard for relief pitchers. Since there is so much bullpen turnover from year to year and since I frankly don’t know many of the young relievers who earn jobs and, in spite of whatever limitations that prevented them from sticking as starters, have a chance to become late-inning relievers in the future, I like to use velocity to identify possible relief sleepers.

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Yesterday, I unveiled my bold hitter league leaders, with the acknowledgement that these are a lot tougher to hit than the generic Bold Predictions. The pitching side of the ledger is a bit easier, but still difficult, of course. Given that there is more luck and factors outside the specific pitcher’s control involved that shape his surface results, it’s more conceivable that a non-favorite leads the league in a category.

In an effort to avoid double dipping and naming the same pitcher in two categories, there may have been a slightly better bold choice for a particular category. I opted to come up with different names in each. Also keep in mind that it is difficult to balance boldness with realistic. I eliminated many names that I didn’t think were bold, but maybe you do. I also eliminated names that have no real chance at leading in the category.

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• As expected, the Astros looked towards Luke Gregerson with their first save chance of the year and he rewarded the team with a clean save, throwing a perfect inning along with a strikeout against the Yankees. Ken Giles threw in the eighth allowing a solo shot to Didi Gregorious but otherwise looked effective, striking out two. Giles’ velocity (96.4 mph) was in line with last season and I would expect him and Gregerson to comprise a darn effective end of game tandem moving forward.

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• It seemed like a safe guess that Ken Giles would be closing games in Houston after the Astros gave up some real talent (Mark Appel, Vincent Velasquez and others) for him this offseason but A.J. Hinch announced that Luke Gregerson will be the closer to start the year. Baseball wise this might be a solid decision, especially if Giles can be used more freely in the seventh or eighth innings in higher leverage situations.  Gregerson is no slouch though, having saved 31 games in 36 tries last year with a 3.10/2.86/2.71 ERA/FIP/xFIP line. For what it’s worth, Hinch said that Gregerson will be the “primary closer”, which doesn’t suggest a committee but Giles could see save opportunities as well.

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• The Phillies have not named a closer yet, and it’s not as if they have an answer and are not telling anybody. For now, our chart lists David Hernandez as the closer despite giving up a home run to the Phillies future squad. One time closer favorite Andrew Bailey has been demoted to the minors, along with Ernesto Frieri. Hernandez has appeared in 5 games this spring, and has surrendered a run in two of them. Dalier Hinojosa is not out of the picture to close games, but has struggled this spring giving up three home runs 8.2 innings. I’d avoid this situation unless you are in the deepest of leagues. Hernandez very strong numbers in Arizona in 2011 and 2012, so that would take some serious optimism to think he could get back to those numbers.

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• Well it didn’t take long for us to have our first closer controversy in 2016 as John Gibbons announced that Roberto Osuna will be their closer on Opening Day. After trading Ben Revere for Drew Storen this offseason, it was assumed that Storen would be in the driver’s seat for the closing gig in Toronto but 2015 rookie sensation Roberto Osuna should take the job and run with it again. Adding insult to injury, after learning about his demotion from the closer’s chair, Storen allowed two runs in one inning of work yesterday. For those of you who had their drafts already, I’m sorry for your loss and you should try to convince the commissioner to hold the draft closer to Opening Day. For those of you who have not had their draft, please bump up Osuna’s value. While there is very stiff competition at the top of the relief rankings (these are a bit outdated and we hope to have an update soon), Osuna was darn impressive as a 20-year old and I could see him touching the top ten by the end of 2016.

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