The Hazards of Evaluating Pitchers

Remember fantasy baseball before the PITCHf/x era? I fondly recall arguments over player valuations. “I think” was the primary selling point, usually followed by an outlandish projection based purely in wishcasting. Stats were found on ESPN or Yahoo. In other words, they were unsophisticated. Maybe you were already reading a fledgling FanGraphs where you could peruse any number of articles about how Player X will regress from high/low BABIP. We’ve all come a long way.

Nowadays, I can’t imagine evaluating a pitcher without the help of PITCHf/x. When another site asked me to rate dynasty starting pitching prospects, I basically told them it was a waste of time. There are the guys we already know about, i.e. Julio Urias. Then there is a mountain of muck to throw against the wall. Some of it will stick. Without minor league PITCHf/x (and MLB translations), I lack the necessary tools to find the next Jacob deGrom.

There’s another issue, and it’s the primary purpose of this article – pitchers are not static talents. Command can change suddenly, new pitches may be discovered, or the next Carlos Carrasco might spontaneously figure out how to use his already excellent repertoire. Previously dominant sliders can lose their tilt or hitters might adjust to a predictable high fastball.

Last week, I penned articles about my favorite closer sleepers in the AL and NL. Both posts were informed almost exclusively by 2015 PITCHf/x data. Using the same methodology allowed me to be the first to predict Carter Capps‘ outrageous season. I was also in, to a lesser extent, on Yoervis Medina and Dominic Leone. I don’t recall ever personally rostering either pitcher, but it’s still a little embarrassing to have hyped them.

Medina and Leone flashed some tasty stuff in 2014. They had velocity, useful secondary stuff, and plenty of whiffs. So what went wrong? Medina lost two mph on his fastball, stopped inducing ground balls, and dropped eight percentage points on his strikeout rate. In short, he simply wasn’t the pitcher he used to be. The story of Leone was similar – he lost one mph on the fastball, his command vanished (5.40 BB/9), and his strikeout rate halved to just 12.2 percent.

As one commenter noted in the NL Sleepers article, Arquimedes Caminero is having an awful spring. You can reference the numbers yourself – they’re bad! This could be an unimportant Spring Training blip or an early sign that his talent level has declined. He had a velocity and command breakout last season. Losing one or both could lead to a very different projection than his 2015 PITCHf/x implies. At his best, Caminero is fun to watch because he throws four plus pitches that run between 90 and 100 mph.

Cubs closer Hector Rondon is having a similarly miserable spring. Cubs writers are already drawing links to Carlos Marmol and Jose Veras. I still project a good season out of Rondon, but I’m using 2015 data to do so. I can only hope it’s still an accurate representation of his talent.

On the other end of the spectrum, it’s impossible to find the next Mychal Givens or Tony Zych. At least, we can’t do so with any semblance of predictability. If you want to roster 10 minor league relievers with good strikeout rates, you may land one or two surprise relief studs. You may miss entirely. I recall getting excited about Brad Boxberger and Shawn Tolleson back in 2012. They didn’t provide fantasy value until 2014 and 2015 respectively.

Even Givens and Zych offer a lesson. They performed fantastically last season in small samples. We all know to beware the SSS monster. Sometimes, pitchers temporarily gain command but aren’t able to replicate the same feels next season. Who’s to say Givens or Zych won’t lose their edge? It’s easier to believe a small sample outburst from somebody like Nate Jones – he’s done it before.

The same ideas apply to starting pitching. While relievers tend to live at the extremes, starters usually see more moderate changes. Andrew Cashner is said to have discovered superior command this spring. If true, that could parlay into an additional strikeout per nine innings and a walk rate around 2.50 BB/9. His 3.85 ERA projection would decline to around a 3.30 ERA.

That’s the difference between a stream starter and a rosterable volume arm. Any PITCHf/x analysis is not going to see the potential for improved command, increased whiff rates, and better outcomes. While it’s a little easier to judge starting pitchers during spring – they’ve thrown more than four innings – there’s still too much potential for smoke and mirrors to “trust” the numbers.





You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

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AlexTheGreat
8 years ago

I think you mean an additional strikeout per NINE innings for Cashner… and I’m liking A-A-Ron Sanchez this year as a sleeper type.