Bullpen Report: April 4, 2016
• It seemed like a safe guess that Ken Giles would be closing games in Houston after the Astros gave up some real talent (Mark Appel, Vincent Velasquez and others) for him this offseason but A.J. Hinch announced that Luke Gregerson will be the closer to start the year. Baseball wise this might be a solid decision, especially if Giles can be used more freely in the seventh or eighth innings in higher leverage situations. Gregerson is no slouch though, having saved 31 games in 36 tries last year with a 3.10/2.86/2.71 ERA/FIP/xFIP line. For what it’s worth, Hinch said that Gregerson will be the “primary closer”, which doesn’t suggest a committee but Giles could see save opportunities as well.
• The Phillies won’t have too many leads to hold this year but they blew one today against the Reds. David Hernandez entered the eighth inning with a one run lead and proceeded to allow three base runners to reach base without recording an out, and all three managed to cross home plate. The Phillies hadn’t announced a closer before the game but it certainly looks as though Hernandez won’t get the next chance considering he blew the lead today in the eighth. It might be a while until this situation is figured out and Pete Mackanin said it could be one of five guys who sees the ninth. My bet would be on Dalier Hinojosa getting the next opportunity but avoiding the chase for sub-mediocre saves is likely the best course of action. If you’re desperate for saves early on, you may have no other choice but the fantasy baseball season is a marathon, other more fruitful opportunities should come across your path.
• Just like in Philly there likely won’t be a plethora of save chances for the Braves this year and they also managed to blow the lead in the opener. Arodys Vizcaino entered the game in the eighth and threw a scoreless frame with two strikeouts and one walk but then Jason Grilli then came for blown save. Grilli wasn’t hit that hard but he allowed the first three batters to get on base before losing the one run lead. This situation was red hot before the game and it remains so now. I’m not going to switch the order after one game without an announcement on the Braves side but Grilli doesn’t have many weak outings before a change is made.
UPDATE: Well it looks like I published too soon as Fredi Gonzalez said that Vizcaino is the closer. The grid has been updated below.
• Notes from yesterday: Mark Melancon finished the game against the Cardinals but entered with a four run cushion, so no save for his inning of work. Of more interest is that Tony Watson threw a perfect seventh with Neftali Feliz following him for a perfect eighth. Tony Watson has the longer track record but he’s a lefty and Feliz could become the primary setup man in Pittsburgh. Wade Davis had some minor velocity concerns during the spring but he was throwing 94.8 mph last night and got the save although he put two men on base before closing the door. He averaged 95.8 mph on his fastball last season but before we sound the alarm here it’s worth waiting to see if he can close the velocity gap over his next few appearances.
• Quick Hits: Zach Britton did his thing throwing a perfect ninth, getting two ground balls in the process. He entered in a tie game and fantasy owners were given a win after the O’s scored on Jepsen in the ninth. Trevor May took kindly to the pen last year supporting a 2.97 FIP and 3.24 xFIP with 37 strikeouts in 31 innings and he continued on that success today, throwing two scoreless innings with four strikeouts. Glen Perkins struggled with several ailments last year but says he feels healthy again this year. Perkins velocity was also down earlier this spring and although his role is secure, Jepsen and/or May (if he pitches like this) could see the closer’s role if an injury returns. Jon Papelbon threw a clean inning, saving the game for Washington against Atlanta. A Papelbon save and a Bryce homer, maybe these guys will get along after all! After being announced as the closer earlier in the week Roberto Osuna continued on his success this year throwing a perfect ninth for his second. A majority of the geniuses expect the Blue Jays to win the division this year so many saves should be expected out of Osuna moving forward.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias
After the game, Fredi Gonzalez said Vizcaino is his primary closer.
Just saw this as well, thanks for the tip too. Updated now.
Maybe I’m misreading, but where are y’all reading that? It says Arodys will get the toughest batters regardless of inning.
No he didn’t
I wouldn’t read too much into Watson pitching before Feliz.
In the Pirates/Cards game, Watson pitched to three consecutive left-handed hitters in the 7th. Feliz pitched the 8th when three right-handed hitters were due up.
Exactly. Prior to the game Hurdle said theyd employ Watson in different spots depending on the situation and matchups. Three lefties is a perfect to use that strategy. If something happens to Melancon, Watsons definitely first in line
Yes, good call. I probably overstated the case, but it’s worth following Feliz. If he has a real turn around in Pittsburgh, as the righty he could be next in line. It’s a big jump as Watson is more the guy there, but I wanted to make note of Feliz.
Miami’s Mike Dunn is DL’d, I believe he is suffering from sorearm forness.
Motte DL too.
Anyone else intrigued by the Rangers going to Diekman for the 8th inning, leading by 1, to face the 2-3-4 hitters (Marte, Cano, Cruz)? I read somewhere that both Diekman and Kela were warming in the pen. Any idea why Kela didn’t get the call?
Between Kela, Diekman, and Dyson, it appears Tolleson is the 4th best guy in this pen, but after yesterday’s strange usage I’m no closer to figuring out the roles or pecking order.
I don’t know what Wilhelmsen is doing on this chart.
I don’t think the Rangers are in any great rush to precisely define roles in the 7th/8th inning. To the contrary, they think they overused those guys when they kept coming back to them last year, and have enough options that they don’t have to keep going back to the same well. Given a setup situation in the 8th today, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Kela or Dyson. Tolleson would presumably close again today, but I doubt they would go to him three days in a row.
That did surprise me a bit.
“Baseball wise this might be a solid decision, especially if Giles can be used more freely in the seventh or eighth innings in higher leverage situations.”
I thought this was studied by somebody and even with the frustrating orthodox use of an anointed closer, the set-up man’s innings were still usually lower leverage than the closer’s.
For sure that’s why I tried to point out that Hinch said “primary closer” which suggests that Giles could see some ninth innings as well.
Jones is the set up guy for the White Sox. Throws 98 with no effort he is the real deal.