2016 Bold Pitcher League Leaders

Yesterday, I unveiled my bold hitter league leaders, with the acknowledgement that these are a lot tougher to hit than the generic Bold Predictions. The pitching side of the ledger is a bit easier, but still difficult, of course. Given that there is more luck and factors outside the specific pitcher’s control involved that shape his surface results, it’s more conceivable that a non-favorite leads the league in a category.

In an effort to avoid double dipping and naming the same pitcher in two categories, there may have been a slightly better bold choice for a particular category. I opted to come up with different names in each. Also keep in mind that it is difficult to balance boldness with realistic. I eliminated many names that I didn’t think were bold, but maybe you do. I also eliminated names that have no real chance at leading in the category.

American League

ERACarlos Carrasco

Want to know what’s absurd? That Carrasco posted a 3.63 ERA last year. His SIERA stood at just 2.74. Carrasco is the complete pacakge — excellent control, a 50%+ ground ball rate, and an absolutely dominant repertoire. Both his slider and curve last year generated SwStk% marks above 25%, while his most thrown secondary pitch, the changeup, generated a near 20% mark. That’s just unfair to possess three elite pitches, which combines with a mid-90s fastball that induces grounders more than 60% of the time. Better defensive support and positive regression in his HR/FB rate could result in a sub-3.00 ERA.

WHIPMichael Pineda

Elite control + strong strikeout rate = excellent WHIP. That’s the recipe for success and Pineda has that. His defense let him down last year, but the Yankees figure to be sold defensively this year so his BABIP should improve dramatically. Hopefully, he remains healthy long enough to actually qualify for the WHIP lead!

WMarcus Stroman

Strategy: choose a starter on one of the top projected offenses — the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Astros, or Tigers. Stroman still baffles me. There are reasons to be so very intrigued, namely due to his high ground ball rate, excellent control, and assortment of pitches. However, that assortment of pitches has oddly generated a below average SwStk% through his short career. It seems like he should be capable of better. Of course, it doesn’t matter all that much since even a mediocre 20% career strikeout rate has been enough to yield a 3.22 SIERA. Innings is a question mark and he’ll need to accumulate enough of them to be in the conversation for the wins leader.

SODanny Salazar

A bold strikeouts leader is always a tough call. We all know who the strikeouts artists are, so given enough innings, is anyone really a bold choice? Salazar finished sixth among AL starters last year in SwStk%, thanks to an absolutely insane changeup, along with a good four-seamer and slider. Is there more upside here in the strikeout rate department? There certainly could be, if he reduced his fastball usage. He has generally thrown the pitch quite frequently, around 70% of the time. Swapping out some fastballs for more sliders and changeups would likely boost that strikeout rate. Innings will be key though. He threw a combined 191 innings last year, so he should be set to exceed whatever total, with no limit in sight.

SvSean Doolittle

I considered skipping the category, as we know that saves are essentially a crapshoot and any decent closer could notch 40 saves in any given year. Doolittle was hurt last year and was limited to just 13.2 innings. Now he’s seemingly healthy, his velocity was up in his first outing, and you cannot forget how good he had been. If he can successfully introduce more non-fastballs and reduce his reliance on the pitch, he may be able to get back to that glorious 2014 level.

National League

ERARaisel Iglesias

Seriously. There’s a reason he was on everyone’s sleeper/breakout list this preseason. Did you even realize he posted a sizzling 3.26 SIERA last year? Despite top skills, he somehow managed to post an ERA over 4.00. That was mostly due to an inflated HR/FB rate, and while GABP boosts home runs, that mark should come down some. Plus, the Reds are projected to have the fourth best defense in baseball. Iglesias’s slider and changeup were both excellent last year, so he comes with two plus pitches, a ground ball tilt and acceptable control.

WHIPPatrick Corbin

Another bolder than it has to be choice, because none of the other potential names with a truly better shot would be considered bold. But Corbin has a lot going for him that could make him a real WHIP asset. He possesses excellent control, pitches in front of what should be an above average defense (though the loss of A.J. Pollock hurts), and looks completely recovered, and perhaps even better, after his TJ surgery. Ideally, he’s going to need a strikeout rate bump to have any chance at leading in WHIP, but the BABIP should come down, pushing his WHIP below 1.20.

WKyle Hendricks

Like I did in searching for a bold AL wins leader, the Cubs and Rockies are easily expected to be the NL’s top offenses. We could throw out any pitchers on the Rockies, which leaves us with the Cubs. Hendricks is the darkhorse on that staff after his skills surged last season. After recording 180 innings last year, he should have no limit this year. He’ll need to exceed that total to pass rotationmates Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester and have any sort of chance.

SOFrancisco Liriano

Out of all NL starters I projected, Liriano was forecasted for the highest S/Str (Baseball-Reference.com’s swinging strike rate). Of course, that’s not a surprise. His career strikeout rate is 24.3% and he struck out just over 200 batters last year. But he has never thrown more than 200 innings. Let’s imagine a world in which the 32-year-old Liriano does so for the first time in his career this year. Perhaps he is also able to sharpen his control over night, which allows him to average more innings per start, and tack on additional strikeouts. Hey, it could happen.

SvJake McGee

Obviously, the bold saves prediction theme is formerly injured left-handed closers. Like Doolittle, McGee is seemingly healthy now. The kneejerk reaction to his move to Colorado is a very negative one. But it shouldn’t be. The thin air at Coors Field generally affects breaking balls. So the fastball heavy McGee shouldn’t have problem with his new home. With a career 2.35 SIERA, we know he has the skills. Colorado just needs to give him save opportunities and not get into their typical offensive marathon games.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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