Introduction

I made the following controversial proclamation earlier this year – that Chris Archer is highly overvalued by fantasy owners. I go even further to say that in all but deep mixed leagues and mono leagues – continually rostering the right hander would be a poor use of fantasy resources.

My contention with Archer’s value stems from his ratio stats:

Read the rest of this entry »

We are a month into the season and the pitching landscape is a mess. The top tier has been shaken to its core with several studs struggling their way through the month while streaming feels damn near impossible with they way the ball is flying out of parks. Of course, there have been bright spots and I do my best to highlight those while also being careful not overreact too much.

I look at my in-season rankings in 4-6 week blocks so the potential innings limits facing some of the younger arms rated highly aren’t really that important right now. Given that so much is going to change in the next month let alone the next five, I don’t see the point in pretending that these updates are viable for the rest of the season.

Pay attention to the tier! If I didn’t rank someone as high as you thought I should, but they are still a must or usually start, then it’s probably not worth freaking out too much. Those tiers mean they are in the rotation pretty much all the time. I’m open to debating slotting, too, but worrying about a 4-spot difference between two guys in the same tier is probably a waste of time.

Read the rest of this entry »

Few aspects of fantasy baseball deviate more from the reality of major league baseball more than the speculation of prospects.  Like most aspects of market-based economics, you often have to buy early on limited information if you want to get the best return on investment before the rest of the industry influences supply and demand.  Perception is reality until prospects actually get the chance to contribute (or fail) on a major league field, and the outcome of those small but important samples can swing values wildly in short cycles.

The goal today is to identify up and coming talent well before the masses of most leagues, so here are five prospects primed to see a big increase in value in 2019.  You won’t find these prospects sitting on many Top 100 lists (yet), but you’ll want to at least keep them on your radar as they rise in the future.

Read the rest of this entry »

This is always the most difficult ranking for me. I research and re-slot. Research and re-slot. And even after settling on this list, I could still draft a team differently as I start to draft for need over best available once I have 3-4 starters.

At any rate, I’ll keep this intro short because I have much more on the way about starting pitching, but I’ll reiterate as I do in all of these SP rankings to not focus too much on the number. I’ve discussed The Glob™ regularly since last year and it’s more prominent than ever. The basic takeaway is that the tiers get huge after the top 30 or so and thus the true talent gap between something like pitcher #56 and #82 isn’t as large as a 26-point difference might otherwise suggest.

That’s not a copout to avoid accountability. I’ve ranked these guys in my order and I will still defend my rankings with evidence of why I like one over the other, but I will stress that the differences just aren’t always as vast as a number might usually suggest. Realistically if I wanted to focus heavily on the number, I’d probably have ties, but instead let’s just focus more on the tier and talent instead of the number.

Previous iteration: Top 120 – Feb.

Read the rest of this entry »

I think we’ve been ranking outfielders incorrectly as an industry. A straight 1-to-whatever list loses some value after the top 50 or so. Once you’ve got your first 2-3 OFs, the last few are often strategically picked to attack categories instead of just going with best available.

Say you need a speed asset for that 4th OF, but the best one is the 12th ranked guy on your remaining board, do you just take him knowing it fills the need or do you internally justify taking someone higher because he’s more talented even though he doesn’t really help the team construction? I’m sure some of you have no issue just taking the needed player, but plenty of us waffle on those decisions and it can cost us in the end.

I’ve ranked my top 50 in order of how I’m drafting them for the most part. I do have some clusters of speedsters and I’d only take one from a cluster even if the others were available the next time I was looking at outfield. I have Dee Gordon and Mallex Smith at 40 and 41, but I’m not going to roster both. Beyond that, it’s a straight draft list. After 50, I broke 106 OFs down by standout skill. Within each skill tier, the guys are slotted in my preferred order. The tiers are most self-explanatory, but just to cover my bases, here they are:

AVG – Player offers a strong batting average (usually .280+… maybe .270+ for some later ones). He may bring other assets to the table but strengthening your AVG is the goal with these picks.

PWR – I told you they were self-explanatory. These guys are capable of or have already shown the ability to club 25+ HRs (30+ at the top end).

PWR/SPD – These guys can bring a double/double (10+ HR & SB) to the table with enough playing time.

SPD – These guys have 20+ SB upside.

TIME/UTIL– Most of this group doesn’t have a standout skill and even if they do, it’s on the fringes of the qualifications for the groups above so their real asset is playing time. I grouped these two together as there were only four utility guys (players with at least 3 eligible positions) and their ability to bounce around helps them get playing time.

Read the rest of this entry »

I remember back in mid-December when first putting together a reliever ranking that I eventually threw my hands up around the early-20s and comforting myself with the idea that things would be much clearer by the time draft season kicked into high gear.

I was wrong.

A few situations have become clearer, but what I didn’t quite anticipate was that even more teams would push toward a more open setup rather than committing to one guy. Even a team like Philadelphia that brought in David Robertson and his 137 career saves has acknowledged that he will still share some of the duties with Seranthony Dominguez.

Read the rest of this entry »

Catcher is so brutal. As if it couldn’t get worse, Salvador Perez is now out for the year. I’m not even sure everyone I listed is real.

Podcasts on C: J&J, Sporer Solo

• What’s your strategy at C in 1-C leagues v. 2-C leagues?
• How do you play it in shallow (10-12) v. deep (15)?
• Who’s your favorite gamble outside of my top 15?

Read the rest of this entry »

Shortstop is the deepest I can ever remember it and the deepest position on the diamond. There are 3 first rounders, 9 Top-50s, and 13 Top-100s at the position according to the NFBC ADP. You will almost certainly want your middle infielder from this pool, too.

Garrett Hampson has incredible SB upside. Jorge Polanco and Marcus Semien are solid power-speed combos. Paul DeJong and Eduardo Escobar are tied for the 6th-most HRs at the position over the last two years with 44. Amed Rosario capped off 2018 brilliantly. Asdrubal Cabrera is a boringly solid power option and Ketel Marte has some burgeoning pop (and some latent speed). Plus several others who have intriguing upside.

I POSTED THE WRONG LIST INITIALLY. I MADE SEVERAL UPDATES THAT WERE SUPPOSED TO BE INCLUDED AND I POSTED THE OLD LIST INSTEAD. THE NEW ONE IS UP AS OF 5:40 PM CENTRAL ON MARCH 1ST!

Podcast on SS: Link

• What’s your strategy at SS in shallower mixed leagues (10-12 teams)?
• What about 15-team NFBC-type leagues?
• Who’s your favorite gamble outside of my top 20?

Read the rest of this entry »

Third base is in a very healthy state checking in as the second deepest position on the diamond heading into the season (or at least the infield… judging IF v. OF is difficult given the need to roster 3-5 OF depending on league type). There’s even upside for many. Is Rafael Devers ready for a breakout season? Can Jake Lamb’s shoulder stay together and push him back to the 30 HR level? Will Maikel Franco have another Spring Training HR explosion and trick me into drafting him again? Will Kyle Seager rebound? Is Ian Happ capable of trimming his K% to foster a breakout?

Podcasts on 3B: Pt. 1; Pt. 2

• What’s your strategy at 3B in shallower mixed leagues (10-12 teams)?
• What about 15-team NFBC-type leagues?
• Who’s your favorite gamble outside of my top 20?

Read the rest of this entry »

Outside of catcher, I think second base is the thinnest position on the diamond. It runs a good 10 deep of guys I’m happy to roster, but quickly becomes a sea of “ifs” right after that. Gleyber Torres can be great IF he avoids a sophomore slump. Yoan Moncada might as well be named “Yoif Moncadif” as we wait for his skills to fully translate. It’d be great if Dee Gordon can get back to his previous levels. And so on with Rougned Odor, Ketel Marte, Nick Senzel, Jonathan Schoop, etc…

Podcasts on 2B: Pt. 1; Pt. 2

• What’s your strategy at 2B in shallower mixed leagues (10-12 teams)?
• What about 15-team NFBC-type leagues?
• Who’s your favorite gamble outside of my top 20?

Read the rest of this entry »