2019 Second Base Rankings
Outside of catcher, I think second base is the thinnest position on the diamond. It runs a good 10 deep of guys I’m happy to roster, but quickly becomes a sea of “ifs” right after that. Gleyber Torres can be great IF he avoids a sophomore slump. Yoan Moncada might as well be named “Yoif Moncadif” as we wait for his skills to fully translate. It’d be great if Dee Gordon can get back to his previous levels. And so on with Rougned Odor, Ketel Marte, Nick Senzel, Jonathan Schoop, etc…
- What’s your strategy at 2B in shallower mixed leagues (10-12 teams)?
- What about 15-team NFBC-type leagues?
- Who’s your favorite gamble outside of my top 20?
Second Base – February
*20+ gm eligibility
Tyler White is 2B eligible in my league – curious where he would rank on this list
17-20ish
Adam Frazier is a gamble I’d take. Natural pure hitter, should post a nice batting average, and added a little pop, too, late last season.
Lowrie, too, but I don’t know that he’s necessarily a gamble, really.
I came on to say the same thing. 1.6 WAR and 7 homers in 196 plate appearances in the second half of the season. ISO of .228 and wRC+ of 138. I know it’s a small sample size but he’s always been a good hitter in the minors and made a few adjustments during a demotion last year. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a top 15 or even top 10 2B by season’s end.
Umm.. why is Jonathon Villar ranked 8th here? I know the upside is tantalizing and steals are a crapshoot but this is a guy who has exactly one season of a wRC+ above 100.. I would’ve guessed mid teens.
He has 44 SB per 600 PA the last 3 years and 37 over the last 2 yrs if you’re concerned the mega-season inflates things too much. With all due respect, wRC+ totals are pretty irrelevant when it comes to speedsters or else Billy Hamilton would go undrafted. And unlike a Hamilton-type, Villar brings some pop with his SBs.
But stolen bases have the worst y2y correlations for the major stats, and almost always trend in the downward direction as the player ages. IMO it’s the weakest category to use past results as forward looking.
Stolen bases have virtually no relevance in the modern game unless you are rebuilding.
That’s why I don’t play in roto leagues anymore. It’s a stat that’s outdated. Unless the hitter can produce an outstanding number of hits to go with the SBs, I ignore them in points league.(Or their conversion rate is outstanding.)
I wish RG would acknowledge how many fb players prefer points leagues more nowadays and give us rankings according to that…crappy ESPN does that. Why can’t RG do the same thing?
A lot of people prefer auctions as well, but the articles are always based on ADP. They do it how they want to.
I realize pts lgs are popular, but roto still rules and it’s not super easy to make full ranking lists for every format.
As a counterpoint, projection systems predict SB the *best* among any 5×5 stat — even better when you adjust for PT and look at SB per PA
So you don’t think Villar runs this year? That’s a bet I’m willing to take.
That would be RBIs.
He was a consensus third rounder in 2017 fantasy drafts after going 19/62 with double digit walk rates. So, yah.
Love Villar 15/45 would not be shocking what so ever, being in BAL actually helps a player like this- Hes actually ranked a lot higher at other sites
Well, also it helps to have positional flexibility in both real and fantasy baseball helps.
Dozier over Shaw? Calling the bounce back!
Dead cat bounce helped only by the lineup, not the park.
That just ignores the fact that the bone bruise lingered all year. If he’s healthy, there’s literally nothing in his profile saying he won’t get back on track. Not necessarily back to PEAK Dozier, but I see better than 2018 for sure
Still gonna be 32 though. Feel like he and Gleyber have similar upside this year.
Jose Ramirez is 2B eligible in Yahoo leagues. Assume he would be #2 on this list behind Altuve?
I’d put him ahead of Altuve, personally.
Being that he is 3 overall,hah
Gleyber may be 11. Or 2 ifthings go well!
or 25 if they don’t. tough read, but he’s an incredible talent.
Paul, do you really think there is a (non-injury based) world in which he finishes that low? What is so concerning?
I mean, Gary Sanchez in 2017 had similar BA and HR numbers to Torres last year in a similar number of plate appearances, and… look where that got him in 2018.
He said “non-injury” though, and Sanchez played through injury and then didn’t play through injury, and then came back injured, and then went to DL again.
Finishes 25th? No, that’s not a likely outcome, but I think it’s as likely as finishing 2nd. I just don’t see incredible growth here. I think 11 is fine.
my mind is blown that you have Torres this far below Albies – they’re basically the same player – especially when you consider that Albies just cratered in the second half last year.
How are they the same player? Albies has 30SB upside, Torres could *maybe* get to 10. Albies ran a 17%K rate last year, Gleyber 25%.
I doubt Albies gets another 24 HR season, so essentially, how many more home runs does Gleyber have to hit to make up for what will certainly be a deficit in SB and runs, and likely a deficit in AVG and OBP? I’ll take Albies, happily.
How are they NOT the same player? They’re both projected by all projection systems to put up about a .270 / .330 / .450 line, each with about 80 runs and RBI. Torres is projected to hit about 25 homers to Albies 20, and Albies is projected to have about 16 steals to Torres’ 10.
From June on, Albies hit .251 w/10 HR & 8 SB while Torres hit .252 w/15 HR & 5 SB. Don’t really seem em similarly, though, as Albies is a much better SB asset.
While Torres is a much better HR asset.
he’ saying that Torres hitting 24 jacks was out of character albeit similar to Albies HR production. Given that they both ended with 24 how many more jacks would Torres have to hit to make up for his lack of steal compared to Albies. I think you’re blinded by your Yankee love
on what planet do you think Ozzie Albies, a guy who never hit more than 9 homers in a minor league season, is likely to repeat a 25 homer campaign?
Looking at batted ball distribution, Torres clearly hits for more power than Albies, while Ozzie has the SB advantage. In all other counting and rate stats, they are basically identical.
There’s no way that Albies is 6 spots better than Torres, full stop.
I’m not even a Yankee fan!
If they match counting categories and AVG while Torres goes 25/10 and Albies goes 10/25, I still want Albies without a doubt.
You still haven’t mapped out any real case that shows why Torres is under-ranked.
I guess I just don’t understand why every single caveat you’ve placed on Torres somehow doesn’t apply to Albies. You keep claiming that “nothing in his profile” shows improvement for Torres, yet ignore the fact that Albies went .226 / .282 / .342 with only 4 homers and 5 steals in the second half.
So that’s just a blip, and we can expect Albies to grow, but Torres is a reminder that prospects progress “non-linearly.”
Maybe I’m wrong, and maybe i’m lazy, but it feels like, to me, you need to try and explain to me what, exactly, about Torres’ profile makes him such a regression candidate, and what, exactly, about Albies’ profile makes him so unlikely to regress.
Even if we agree on the value of SB vs HR, which we clearly do, I still don’t understand how there’s such a large gap between two so obviously similar players … and that’s before we even get to the fact that you somehow think Brian Dozier and Jonathan Villar are going to be better fantasy assets than Torres.
I’m not even necessarily projecting overall growth with Albies. Even with his fade and pedestrian 100 wRC+, he was 4th in AC among 2B (https://goo.gl/YYAbMR). Meanwhile, Steamer has ’em 6th & 10th for this season (https://goo.gl/6pNw69). I see a lot more SB for Albies and perhaps 7-10 fewer HR.
I don’t understand why you’re desperately trying to make them out to be such similar players, too. It’s just not true no matter how many times you repeat it: (https://imgur.com/a/WASCBOB). Torres is a 60% base stealer, Albies was 75% base stealer in the minors (85% in the majors) & faster. I see 15+ more SB for Albies.
Torres is a better power asset. I think he probably repeats his 24 HR/6 SB over a full season. I like Albies for 20+ SBs, so even if his HR dip to 12-15, he’ll still have more HR+SB than Torres in my estimation.
I just don’t see a case for Torres over Albies even without projecting growth. If you want to take Torres, do it. But you haven’t shown why he’ll be better than Albies.
Paul, you gave me Albies last year and I’m grateful but Gleyber is way, way too low on this list. You have some serious jabronies ahead of GleyberDay.
I can understand liking him, but I don’t really see a viable case that he’s way, way too low. Nothing in his profile really suggests growth. I see more of a consolidation/pullback year where he matches the counting #s, but does so in more games followed by 2020 growth. Remember, prospect growth isn’t necessarily linear.
Moncada rate stats suggest he should be a better overall hitter,how far up the list can he go with some better luck?
Not sure, but he really needs to change his approach. People think he is just a free swinger but I think he led the league in called third strikes. If he matures he can be a real talent though.
he broke the record for called 3rd strikes in a season. that said, he’s playing 3rd in ST and probably will this year as the white sox clear out 2nd for Madrigal’s elite glove sometime next year if all goes well.
That’s the most optimistic ranking of Dozier I’ve seen. I’d like to hear your reasoning. Are you high on him or just low on the others?
Id take McNeil over a number of players ranked ahead of him. Frazier already hurting and McNeil superior player. I can see quite a few ABs and his wRC+ ranks 7th best among 2B.
Not ranking Hampson?
He’s only SS-eligible to start. I only rank on where you can draft them.
Let’s pretend he’s 2B-eligible. Just for fun?
In Yahoo! He counts for both 2b, Ss.
Will there be a composite rankings for each position released at some point? I always found those really useful.
I can’t decide on Albies. He had a monster April but really was pretty meh after that. I actually straight waived him in September once the Braves dropped him in the lineup.
Also, trying to figure who is a likely add to this list once they qualify – Taylor, Profar and Moustakas are 3 I could think of. Anyone else?
Also #2 – LOL on Moncadif. . . .
I might do a piece of to-be players at other positions like I did with 1B.
I still love Albies. Don’t get bogged down too much on just ’18. He’s still a 22-year old with development ahead. Even if you take his May on & prorate for 6 months, it’s like .260-19-15 which is still p good.
Barreto has some post hype sleeper whiff to him
Justin loves him a good bit!
I can’t decide where a fully realized Luis Urias will fall on a spectrum that goes something like:
Placido Polanco < Cesar Hernandez < Michael Young
empty but very good avg? / a little more speed/power with a pretty good avg? / a semi-stud hitting .300+ in his best years at MI with enough HR+SB to chip in everywhere?
Yahoo has Mondesi eligible at 2B… where would he fall at on this list? Between 3 and 5? Too many outcomes maybe puts him at 7-8?
Razzball has him at 19…overall
Razzball is just the type of place to jump on a hype train like Mondesi.
ESPN in my format has him as a very conservative 18th among SS (he’s not eligible at 2B there). He is soundly in my “Let someone else use a high draft pick on him” category, because even if he’s better than ESPN’s estimate, he’s not giving you value at 19 overall.
Well, his projection wouldn’t be bad for 19 overall. If he can hit his projection.
I’m a huge Mondesi skeptic – I think people are setting themselves up to be Buxtoned.
But then, this is a guy who traded away Juan Soto for next to nothing because “cash in on the hype” sooooo, my instincts clearly suck.
I still can’t for the life of me figure out why Albies didn’t run more last year. He has the speed to steal 40+, and enough opportunities standing on 1B to get there.
Perhaps coaches are not giving him the green light?
Acuna took plenty more chances than Albies. Can’t think of why one would be held up if the other is allowed to run. At first I thought maybe they just didn’t want to risk getting him thrown out batting ahead of Freeman, but then Acuna had plenty opportunities to steal.
SBs are weird like that. Sometimes it’s player decision. He has the ability to go off for 30+ though
Albies is not that fast tho. Quick. 80th overall behind guys who are thought of as slow, and 12th at his position. Short legs start quicker hence stolen base success, but he’s top 25%, not elite
Basically, I’ve seen it broken down that the Braves only run out of the #1 slot under Snitker. Guys run a lot if they lead off, and pretty much don’t at all from anywhere else in the lineup.
What is the market missing on Odor vs. Dozier? 7 vs 15 is a sizable gap.
Unless one of your top 4 falls to me I’m waiting on a Hernandez/Marte type to start the season, and watching the waiver wires carefully to see whether someone lower down starts getting more regular ABs. Outside font options 20 probably Kinsler; and in my OPS league I’d love to have McNeil on my bench—PT unclear, but love his contact skills and think he provides solid stats if they’d JUST PLAY HIM.
I’ll go with Gurriel in the 20+ set –
1. His playing time is certain
2. Despite being a free swinger, he avoided bad contact last year (3% IFFB and 45% batted balls hit 95+ mph) indicating a good hit tool
3. Swinging often and avoiding bad contact means potential for high BABIP and BA as I can see him cutting his K% down below 20%
4. He has a good home park for power and good parks in his division
I recently traded for him, so I hope you’re right, but is his playing time certain?
You’ve got the -Vis (Galvis and Travis) gaming for PT at 2B/SS, so any slow start or misstep could be a ticket to AAA.
the thing i keep coming back to on gurriel is that multi-hit streak. 11 multihit games in a row, only stopped when he hurt himself and never really got back on track after he came back.
but – i think it was only 7 other guys had ever had a multihit streak that long, and they were 6 hall of famers and shoeless joe. so sure maybe you can fluke into doing something like that, but nobody ever has before
maybe it’s all nothing, but to me he’s pretty interesting
Jose Peraza?
For >20, I was going to say Adames, but apparently he doesn’t make the cut?
Asides from LGJ at 21 (which feels like cheating), there is not much I want a part of. Zobrist is the safe pick for steady Runs and BA, but nothing else. Maybe Barreto as a flier?
Cesar year in and year our performs. I’m happy taking him around 160. You def are the high man in dozier and the low man on Torres whose going in 3rd or 4th. I would personally would put Villar higher, and I feel his late 70-80 overall is about right in an overall since you can’t compete w/out stolen bases, however I’m not paying a premium for him in 12 men leagues w/out overall prize
Oof I didn’t realize the second base drop off is pretty huge after the first ten. Curious Why Adalberto Mondesi (Don’t call me Raul) doesn’t count here? Is he a shortstop in your eyes?
Ya only SS eligible w/20+ game thresholds
Odor is a guy I would of never thought twice about and would of had him at about 15 too, but then there’s the problem of his projection, which has him going 28/16 79/86 .250. That projection puts him as the number 5 projected fantasy 2b. 15 is too low. Body of work 2 years prior to last year, + the great 2nd half, makes me buy that projection.
I think Villar is an interesting comp. He’s only projected for 5 more HR+SBs, with MUCH worse counting stats. I get that 60 sb upside is enticing, but looking at their most likely outcomes, Odor is ahead. I like Odor more but can understand people who choose Villar, I don’t think there should be a gap between them though.
I’m not a huge fan, but perhaps he someone I’m wrong on. He has a 57% SB success rate and sinking ISO. He was great in Jul-Aug, but then brutal again in Sept. I can’t really get behind the projections with where his skills have been going.
Profar? Has to right around top 15, Could see him taking Marwins spot
Where would Max Muncy rank on this list? He’s eligible in my league (13 games last year)
Paul, do you know why more than one projection system dings 2B a couple of dollars in a 14-hitter format vs. other infield positions? That doesn’t make any sense to me…
The projections for Wilmer Flores are pretty decent. A 20/60/75/.277 line seems better than a ranking of 36. Care to explain why you are so down on him?
That one stood out for me as well…essentially same projs as Schoop (#19).
Don’t see Kike getting the same amount of PAs as last year? Or do you just not buy the advancements he made?
Where would Moustakas fall if he indeed does become 2B eligible?
Where would Moustakas rank? About equal with Shaw I’d guess…slightly more power, less OBP, maybe just depends on your league?
Worried about playing time for Brandon Lowe or just not a big fan yet?
The former for sure. I’m quite a fan, tbh, but I was unsure of his PT. I’m hearing better reports of late, though, so I will be moving him up in March
Wendle is this year’s Whit.
The 2nd base position has something for everyone… everyone can find somebody they like, with upside, outside of the top 10 at the position. This is particularly true in formats with fewer games played minimums for eligibility.
the infield in general is so busy lately. there’s a lot of really interesting players all the way down in 2B/SS/3B, while i’m struggling to find OFs i like. exact opposite of how it always used to feel to me. pretty weird
Jurickson Profar?
If I had to make a bet on someone from the middle of the pack down jumping up into the top 10 possibly top 5 for the season I would go with Marte. He has a chance to be the leader of that team.
With news of Hernandez’s early injury, I think it makes Kingery a worthwhile stash. He may have been slow to come around with the bat last year while working on his D at SS/3B/OF. Back at his natural position, maybe he’ll produce if Cesar misses extended time.
I’m buying in on Kingery this year with the tanking of his price. He’ll be in my SS ranking for sure.
Moustakas should slot in at number 7 in May (after he gains eligibility).
He could lead the position in homeruns.
Robertson was once a top 50 prospect, and hit .262/.382/.415 in his sophomore season. I’ll be snagging him much higher than most it seems. He should get 500 PA or so as super utility. I think you’re severely underdrafting him.
Like the talent, but it’s uber-crowded in TB. He’s tough to draft in anything below 15-team mixers
Hey guys, where’s a good place to keep up to date on these guys who “should” get new positions in NFBC early on in season? examples…Daniel Murphy 1B, Ketel Marte OF, Mike Moustakas 2B. FYI, I’m not banking on these things to happen, but instead will use them to break a tie when deciding between two guys.
Moustakas probably top 10?