2019 Starting Pitcher Rankings
This is always the most difficult ranking for me. I research and re-slot. Research and re-slot. And even after settling on this list, I could still draft a team differently as I start to draft for need over best available once I have 3-4 starters.
At any rate, I’ll keep this intro short because I have much more on the way about starting pitching, but I’ll reiterate as I do in all of these SP rankings to not focus too much on the number. I’ve discussed The Glob™ regularly since last year and it’s more prominent than ever. The basic takeaway is that the tiers get huge after the top 30 or so and thus the true talent gap between something like pitcher #56 and #82 isn’t as large as a 26-point difference might otherwise suggest.
That’s not a copout to avoid accountability. I’ve ranked these guys in my order and I will still defend my rankings with evidence of why I like one over the other, but I will stress that the differences just aren’t always as vast as a number might usually suggest. Realistically if I wanted to focus heavily on the number, I’d probably have ties, but instead let’s just focus more on the tier and talent instead of the number.
Previous iteration: Top 120 – Feb.
Thanks for going so deep with these!
*TWSS
JUST in time, thanks Paul.
Found a typo Paul. You accidentally put a 5 in front of the 8 for Gibson. You’ve put in a lot of good work lately, everyone makes mistakes.
Booooo, on whoever down voted this. . . .
Salazar at 169?
Not expected back until mid-May at this time. Not guaranteed a spot when he does come back. May be shifted to relief since he’s only once managed to stay healthy for anything even remotely close to a full season.
Unless you meant you were surprised he’s that high. . . .
Not sure if you think that’s too high or too low, actually not sure if I think that’s too high or too low. This coming from a guy who once pulled over on an interstate highway in a driving rain to add Salazar cause he was being called up from the minors. Yeah, didn’t work.
“pulled over on an interstate highway in a driving rain to add …” yeah been there
At least you pulled over
Jim, I have no clue if you think Salazar is too high or too low. On ability he could be top 40, but on reliability, and whether he will end up starter or reliever, he is way down. So 169 might be a good estimate.
Certainly the low man on Corbin. No concerns playing for a better team and sitting 95-97 this spring?
Agreed – I would put Corbin at 15
I think it was actually Corbin Martin sitting 95.
The better team isn’t going to change much. It was a career year and I’m expecting pullback. Can I get a source on the velo boost?
I could be wrong, but I swear it was Eno saying he is sitting 95-97.
I really don’t see much evidence to suggest a pull back is coming. His 3.15 was excellent and he actually *underperformed* his FIP by more than half a run. His strand rate wasn’t particularly high at 74%. His BABIP allowed was .302 which is basically league average. He didn’t suppress HR at a crazy rate. And I have a hard time believing that that being on a better team won’t lead to a lot more than 11 wins. Putting him behind guys like Tanaka and Archer? I just don’t see how that can be justified. And yes, I know it’s only one year but it’s hard to fluke your way to a 2.47 FIP and a 31% strikeout rate.
Jeff Zimmerman’s spring training velocity doc has him at 95 but the link mentions Corbin Martin. Haven’t seen elsewhere stating P. Corbin is at 95.
Folty down at 87…injury risk?
Already hurt, my dude.
But likely returning in April, making this an aggressively low ranking.
Good ol’ injury timetables… they never fail. I definitely went low on Folty, basically acknowledging that I’m not drafting him right now w/the uncertainty. If we get some clarification on his outlook, I’ll boost him.
The low ranking — for now — is probably safe, but it has been reported — by Mark Bowman from MLB.com — that his ailment is nothing serious. The Braves have stated that if it was the middle of the season, Folty wouldn’t miss a start.
Who knows if they’re being completely honest, but hopefully Folty is back by the end of April or beginning of May at the latest.
Gausman has been getting shelled in his first two starts, as he has also been dealing with some soreness issues. The Braves had, at one time, six different pitchers with enough soreness to keep them from pitching this Spring. It looks like everyone, except Folty, is good to go at the moment.
Could be already planning the dodgers 10 day DL long con
Misses 2 starts and then good to go.
Like everyone else commenting about someone I think is too low, are you not sold on FG’s Depth Charts projection for Paddack’s playing time?
I’m pro-Paddack. He’s in a tier ranging as high as 55. I’m buying.
See you have 4 Tribe starters in 2nd tier…is this partially because of the weak division?
That helps but it’s really just bc of their talent
What would be the reasoning for ERod ranked above G. Marquez?
Check the podcast, there was recent dissection of both. I’m with you though, Marquez by a mile (Paul hates on the park factor too much imho)
How so? It’s not just some random park effect. It’s Coors. No one beats Coors. Marquez has a good half season and now he’s going to be the first SP to ever beat that park? I just don’t see it.
And I ranked him top 40 so let’s not pretend I have him down as some bust. But if you’re *planning* for an ERA better than 3.50, you’re asking for disappointment
26 seasons of Rockies baseball, 8 qualified player seasons with an ERA under 3.50 and only 18 under 4.00. The only 2 guys with 2 seasons under 3.50? Ubaldo and . . . . .Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin actually had a 3rd season at 3.62
While I am with Sporer here as I have basically no shares of Marquez if he keeps going 3 innings 9ks I might have to take the plunge.
Lets say tomorrow Scherzer is somehow traded to the Rockies, where do you rank him? Top 10?
I’m not sure Scherzer would be top 10. I’ve posted this before but:
– Kershaw at Coors: 126 IP, 4.57 ERA
– Kershaw everywhere else: 1970.1 IP, 2.25 ERA
His ERA there is 56 points higher than anywhere else he has pitched more than once. Coors Field alone has raised Kershaw’s career ERA by 0.14 runs. I can’t figure opponent OPS easily but it’s kind of the same thing for Kershaw – .746 OPS at Coors which is 40 points higher than anywhere else that he has pitched more than once.
His ERA in the 5 NL West parks (since he has pitched there a lot more than anywhere else):
– SFG: 164 IP, 1.54 ERA
– SDP: 89.2 IP, 1.61 ERA
– LAD: 1111.2 IP, 2.08 ERA
– ARI: 92.1 IP, 3.70 ERA (& remember, Chase has been a great hitter’s park for most of its history)
– COL: 126 IP, 4.57 ERA
If Kershaw can’t figure out Coors , who can? (BTW, I checked MadBum and it’s kind of the same thing, though he has a few other parks that have been worse for him, including, oddly, Oakland)
There’s a reason I have never rostered a Rockies starter and avoid closers unless I absolutely have to dabble there. Granted, I’ve always been in pretty shallow leagues so that helps, but pitching in CO is just tough.
Until someone beats Coors, I’m out. I’m fine missing the first boat. Props to whoever nails it. I miss on plenty of players in a fantasy season. Not gonna hurt my feelings.
(Gulp) I might’ve reached for Marquez at 6th rnd then. I thought I’d never draft a Rockies pitcher but I decided to take a shot after I noticing how well he pitched at home in the 2nd half
Marquez’s last 7 starts at Coors:
7.0IP 3H 0ER 1BB 11K
7.0IP 6H 1ER 1BB 11K
6.2IP 7H 2ER 2BB 11K
7.0IP 3H 0ER 1BB 9K
6.0IP 10H 3ER 2BB 10K
7.2IP 5H 2ER 1BB 8K
6.0IP 5H 2ER 2BB 8K
He’s only had one good half but he was damn good in that half. Even if he’s average at home he will still be good on the road getting a good number of QS, K’s, Wins. ERodriguez plays in a tough park and division and doesn’t normally go very deep in games, even with the Coors effect it;s hard to see him out performing Marquez.
I’m a Yankee fan, but Eduardo Rodriguez is very good….and keeps improving. Marquez is excellent as well.
Thanks Paul. Hoping that you and Nick do a Fireside Chat comparing your lists again. Or maybe one last final one before the season starts, love listening to that stuff.
Thank you, Paul, but crap, I got updates from both you and Nick today, now have to figure out how to incorporate these into my clumsily constructed draft rankings, with about a week to do so. Back to my original point, thanks.
foltynewicz below heaney, burnes, woodruff, german…………………hard to imagine
the driveline comeback is inspiring regardless but i’m pretty sure kyle zimmer is purely a reliever at this point
Source on that? I’ve always been a fan, so I’m holding out some hope!
yeah, i mean, same. i’ve been following him pretty closely for years since i drafted him in my main league and keep adding and dropping him as the ups and downs roll by
the actual official relief conversion happened over a year ago, as i recall. then he didn’t pitch at all last year anyway. so in googling now i’m not seeing any particular declarations about role, but i’m only seeing him discussed in terms of the bullpen, so i don’t feel like anything’s changed
i suppose if they decide that driveline really did work a miracle and he’s now Entirely Cured it’s not impossible they might convert him back, but it feels unlikely. figure at this point they’d just take any contribution as a win and not get greedy
I’ll be very surprised if Reynaldo Lopez’ performance comes close to matching his ranking here. Time will tell.
This was the one that stood out to me. What on earth is Paul seeing that the projection systems aren’t?
I love the Tiers!!
It’s very helpful and not something many people provide.
ESPN does something along the lines of ‘tiers’, but it’s not as many, so you don’t get as good of an idea for the lower-tier types
Listened to the latest pod, and while I agree the NL Central has strengthened overall, when looking at the projected lineups, it feels like there are a ton of Ks to be had throughout the division. I think that gives guys like Yu, Archer and Tony D a nice floor from the K/9 alone.
so you’re a believer in the health of Price and Darvish? especially ahead of Severino? I like your list, just curious about your take on those 2 guys.
I think the reasoning was that we know Severino’s gonna miss time and we aren’t sure how much. While it’s likely that Price, Darvish, Strasburg (those types) only pitch 150-ish innings, it’s in the realm of possibility that they could pitch close to 200 IP. That’s basically out of the question for Severino…which makes me heartbroken because I have him as a keeper.
25 Miles Mikolas STL – Will not be on any of my fantasy teams even.
What’s your primary concern with Glasnow? (I mean, I know there are warts, but I’d have expected him closer to late 40s/high 50s)
Lacks consistent control and I feel like he always will. Seems to struggle repeating mechanics at 6’8. Just not seeing any reason to slot him that high.
Thor seems 5-10 spots too high, and it seems wildly optimistic to put him in the same tier as deGrom & Scherzer.
Is there any projection system that actually has him that high?
No idea if any projection system has him there and frankly don’t care at all about that when making my rankings.
How is it wildly optimistic? He has a career 2.93 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 22% K-BB. He’s also top of the scale in Aaron Sauceda’s ACES metric (https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/fantasy-baseball-introducing-aces-a-new-way-to-find-sleepers-busts-at-pitcher/).
The only real issue against him is that he hasn’t posted a 200-IP season yet, but there were no arm injuries last year and I’m willing to bet on the elite skillset and take my chances w/the health.
Thank you. He has probably the best stuff of ANY pitcher. Ever. (Fun exercise: Can anyone name a pitcher with better stuff?)
He throws 100 with pinpoint accuracy of four pitches. He throws a mid nineties slider he can locate anywhere. He supresses home runs and never walks anyone.
His issues have been too many injuries (none chronic) and a strangely high BABIP on soft contact. No one has a higher upside.
Those are solid numbers, but Scherzer’s K-BB last season was 29%, which is the same as Thor’s career high K%, and deGrom wasn’t far behind at 27%. Moreover, last season Thor’s K-BB was at 18%.
Scherzer’s WHIP in 4 seasons with the Nationals has averaged 0.93, and deGrom was at 0.91 last season. Thor was 1.21 last season, and in his excellent 2016, he was still at 1.15.
Or look at wOBA against – Thor’s 2016 was .277 (good for 17th min 350 PAs). Last year he was at .286 (good for 22nd min 350 PAs).
Perhaps most importantly, the last time Scherzer failed to make 30 starts was his rookie season in 2008, and deGrom has hit the mark in 3 of his 5 seasons, including the last two. Thor has hit that mark once in his career, and barely hits it if you combine his last two seasons.
As a Mets fan I would love to see Syndergaard join deGrom as a top 5 SP and if Wheeler cracks the top 20 that would be gravy.
4 of the top 13 for Cleveland. That’s..uh..pretty good.
0 of the top 81 for Baltimore. That’s..uh..not.
The only reason that Baltimore starters are ranked so low, is that they are all lousy pitchers.
Thanks for the rankings, Paul. Very surprised by the Baumgarner ranking. Since the dirt bike accident he’s been barely rosterable. Maybe he bounces all the way back to the near ace level this year (which is where this ranking has him) but that seems like a substantial gamble.
yea i mostly agree although i saw a bit of him on TV and his velocity had creeped back up
Barely rosterable??! In what kind of league? He has a 3.29 ERA/1.17 WHIP the last two seasons. His demise is *greatly* overstated. And this ranking doesn’t call for him to bounce back to his ace level. He was a top 10 SP pre-2017. This still leaves cushion.
I would only agree that Bumgarner is ‘barely rosterable’ because he was barely on the roster for the past two seasons, but he’s healthy now. He may not be the ace everyone still believes him to be (a la Kershaw or King Felix… which is a little sad), but I think he’ll be a solid SP2 or at worst SP3 this year.
A lot of people are down on him because he’s perceived to be not the same elite guy, but don’t sleep on Bumgarner.
Kershaw is pretty highly ranked here, curious why you’re not worried about his injury woes like others
I feel like I’ve accounted for his injury concerns by putting him 15th. We draft Strasburg in the top 15-20 every year knowing he almost certainly won’t approach 200 IP and he hasn’t been anywhere near as good as Kersh. Everyone’s ready to take James Paxton despite dropping below 3.75 ERA just once in his 3 good yrs and who’s next 170 IP season will be his first.
I think the Kershaw panic is largely overblown. Gimme 150 IP out of him over MANY others.
First one I strongly disagree with you Paul. I don’t trust Kershaw to start even 15 games. He might, but then again he might be injured all year. The Dodgers keep saying he is progressing well. The season is about to start and he has not pitched. He would easily be my # 1 injury concern in the entire MLB.
Edit: Never mind! Thanks for the list, Paul.
Surprised to see Greinke below Price and Darvish, given his consistency over the years and risk in the other two. Curious to hear your thoughts!
I would be careful,with Kershaw,and Darvish.
Health being the obvious reason.
Both have had a hard time completing a season.
I had Mikolas in every league last year.
He may not be flashy,yet he gets the job done.
In my 20 teamer, all of my pitching (excluding Bauer) falls in Tier 4. I’m not sure if I should be excited or if I need to upgrade 1 or 2 of those guys.
Why Strahm before Paddack? Earlier chance?
Love the rankings Paul, thank you!
Curious about E-Rod ahead of Corbin since I have both as keeper options. What do you see in Corbin falling that low? Injury? Velocity is obviously an issue, but I was surprised to see his advanced stats pointing to an even lower ERA last year. And that slider got him to the highest swing rate out of the zone of any pitcher last year. Do you think batters will learn to lay off? Thanks again!
Paul, love your stuff. Generally I come away with a good understanding. However, I can’t see Ray @33 let alone top 60. Why the love?
Bieber at 53 is criminally low. He had the 12th lowest FIP amongst SP with at least 100 IP in 2018. The only SP to post a BB% under 5% and a K% over 25% in 2018 were Verlander, Kluber, Stripling and drum roll… Bieber.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=100&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,a
Ya none of them allowed 10 hits per nine. He was 5th in H9 bc he fills the zone with hittable pitches. The .356 BABIP isn’t just bad luck. It’s his approach. He was 101st in LOB%. 53rd is perfectly fine for the latest iteration of Whitechael Pineda until he shows that he can actually avoid the blowup outings.
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Why Strahm over Paddack? More immediate opportunity?
Ya Strahm is a 27-year old so I think they’ll turn him loose a bit more while Paddack is 23 comin off a 90-inning season (and 0 in 2017) so he’s going to managed tighter, imo. I really dig Paddack, but for re-draft it’s easily Strahm for me
Lol
Love Darvish at 20. People sleeping on him in drafts, for good reason, but it sets up a nice gamble for your SP3-4.
Great stuff! Any chance you can dive into who you are higher/lower on than the norm?
I know it’s just spring training, but Spencer Turnbull is having a nice run. Not disputing his #174 here but would be interested in hearing more about him.
Good stuff.