2019 First Base Rankings
First base enters 2019 at an interesting crossroads. It’s a bit thin at the top in terms of bankable, premium talent, but there’s also a path to it re-taking its perch as one of the deepest positions in the game. It will add the likes of Rhys Hoskins, Daniel Murphy, and Jake Lamb early into the season (the former pair being top 10ers right off the bat once they qualify). Here’s a piece I did with more thoughts on those 1B-to-be. There’s a group of pivotal guys like Max Muncy, Matt Olson, and Jesus Aguilar who could really flip the position at the top while guys like Ryan O’Hearn, Jake Bauers, and Luke Voit are on-the-rise bats who intrigue me.
- What’s your strategy at 1B in shallower mixed leagues (10-12 teams)?
- What about 15-team NFBC-type leagues?
- Who’s your favorite gamble outside of my top 20?
First Base – February
*20+ gm eligibility
Where would Hoskins rank in leagues where he is eligible?
“It will add the likes of Rhys Hoskins, Daniel Murphy, and Jake Lamb early into the season (the former pair being top 10ers right off the bat once they qualify).”
Which then wouldn’t be a pre-season ranking, would it? With Carpenter 5th on this list, it looks a bit different from others that I’ve seen, which makes me curious as to where he would be placed.
Well top10 is a huge range.
In the article about 1B to be, Paul says he doesn’t see much of a difference between Hoskins and Bellinger…
I think this is a legitimate question, as in some leagues he’s already eligible. Plus, in the second base article written by Paul this kind of question has been answered multiple times for various players.
So for consistency, here it is: 4th or 5th. I got this from the article that Paul linked that talked about Hoskins, etc as to where they’d be ranked when eligible. With Paul comparing Hoskins to Bellinger, 4th or 5th it is.
E5 seems undervalued here. He slipped a bit last year, but still smashed 30+ HR with 100+ RBI. Done it for the better part of a decade now. Reminds me of the aging Ortiz who slipped in drafts every year and produced top tier numbers anyway. Edwin won’t hit for the average, but seems a near lock for the power numbers. I think it’s easy to make an argument he should be 5th/6th here.
Ya I’ve been warming up to E5 myself. I’m really hyped on Muncy so he stands out for me at 7, but then 8-14 is tight (and Martinez would join that fray w/a full time gig, too)
Seattle=forget it.
Seattle has a better right-handed HR park factor than Cleveland.
Edwin’s plate discipline, ISOs, and wRC+ have all been getting noticeably worse for four years in a row now, which seem like major red flags given his age. Ortiz’s only stretch like this was from 2009-2010 where he was striking out 21+% of the time before immediately returning to a lower ~14% figure in 2011 onwards. I just have a hard time seeing that happening with Edwin considering how many other aging sluggers fail to rebound.
I hate to keep asking every time, but where would Hoskins be ranked?
Anyway,
Question 1: in a 10 teamer I wouldn’t want anyone worse than Votto and I would take one of the top 3 if I already had some SB from my first pick.
Question 2: 15 team I suppose I could stomach EE or Miggy, but I’d look for Abreu.
Question 3: outside the top 20 I’d look for Voit.
“It will add the likes of Rhys Hoskins, Daniel Murphy, and Jake Lamb early into the season (the former pair being top 10ers right off the bat once they qualify).”
Says in the intro that Hoskins would be ranked top-10. Murphy, too, which was my next question.
Jose Martinez at 15 is interesting. He’s a good hitter, but where will the ABs come from?
Not readily apparent, but he got 590 last year. Talent plays. There are some injury concerns elsewhere on the team and they just signed Martinez so I think they’ll get him his PT.
They didnt have Goldy last year to lock up 1B abs
yeah, between goldy and jose’s 1B defense last year they’re saying martinez has given up his 1B glove altogether this spring, so he’s getting zero time there this year unless there’s some kind of major crisis.
there seems to be a lot of elbow room around the margins of the cardinals OF, though. fowler is no sure thing after last year, and the early noises about ozuna’s recovery from whatever surgery he had have been pretty weird this past week, to where it sounds like there’s some chance JM might be opening the season as the regular in LF. how long that lasts is an open question, of course, but JM is the kind of guy where one he gets his nose into the lineup and starts hitting it might be hard for them to take him out again.
Ozuna may not be 100% to start the season, but he’s still going to be starting in LF on Opening Day.
Martinez’s only path to even semi-regular playing time is in RF, but Fowler is currently ahead of him on the depth chart, and even if he flops again, J-Mart will also need to compete with O’Neill for those at-bats. O’Neill may be an unpolished hitter, but he has more raw power and flashes much better leather than Martinez ever will.
Are we considering Ji-Man Choi a DH for the purposes of these lists? Felt like he had some good success last year and could easily find it again as a sleeper ahead of some of the dudes at the bottom of this. Thanks as always for the #content.
If I miss the top bats I’m grabbing Bour late, and filling his LHP games with any number of 110-ish wRC+ guys who will be freely available to find at my leisure.
How can Josh Bell be ranked ahead of anybody?
Because I can think beyond just 1 year of data and not rank entirely off of 2018?
Eno Sarris also highlighted some trends in his profile for the Athletic consistent with most of the recent offensive breakouts. If he can combine the best of his last two seasons, he’s a legitimate top-15 hitter at the position at worst.
My 1b strategy is to get one of the top 3, and if not get a top 3B and wait on 1B. Voit is getting so much attention that he’s likely to end up overvalued. After top 20, I like Justin Bour whose numbers were down last year because of injuries, but who has the potential for E5 numbers many rounds later (I’m taking the over on his ABs).
Agree on Bour. Big fan for him to go off this year – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/finding-this-years-_____-hitter-edition/
What about points leagues? Not everybody plays in roto. Would Voit be higher in your rankings then? That opposite field power and 81 games in one of the shortest RF porches in baseball, makes him attractive to me, especially in deep leagues.
I was expecting Jake Bauers in the top 10 😂
Big fan of Marwin and Profar because of the positional flexibility. I always try to land one of those guys. They hit enough to carry value, and they can fill in at several spots to cover off days and injuries. Also think Luke Voit would be a good middle-to-late round grab. He hit a ton last year, and plays in a very power-friendly division.
I suppose if you get them deep enough in the draft, but I was actually thinking Profar is a bit too high here. 2018 was his best year in the majors by a long shot and he went .254/20/82/77/10 which is . . . .OK I guess. It isn’t like he has a monster track record in the minors either – good, but not great. Now he is going from Texas, not the hitter haven it used to be but still a good park, to Oakland which a rough, rough park to hit in. I ran his adjusted numbers using b-ref’s neutralized batting stats and it shows his numbers in Oakland would have been .236/18/70/65/9 which is pretty underwhelming IMO.
I think if you are using either at 1B, you’ve made a mistake somewhere.
I actually tend to take a lot of 1B, use them in utility spots since the position is so deep with hitters, so they’re roughly never going to be used at 1B unless that’s just how the day shakes out. I carry three or four every season by the end of the year because someone always seems to emerge with a good bat.
Christian Walker? For us NL only deep leaguers. I’d think he’d be right after Alonso? No way Lamb is blocking him if he hits and Lamb struggles.
Seems a few picks low on Gallo and adp agrees. Not sure where I stand, even though there is a lot to like with his second half last year. Made you dream of one day purring together a career yeaemr batting in the 230s
I like Bour too, but how certain are we that the Angels will sit Pujols? Ohtani is already hitting and people are saying mid to late April now, so I feel like a lot of faith is being put into Pujols becoming a bench bat. That’s what they should do, but I’d bet he gets the lions share of at bats.
I know there’s a Yankee fan in every league, but I can’t imagine Voit will be the 27th 1B taken in any draft. People love his power and the lineup he’ll be in. I think he’ll be going at the 15-17th 1B in most leagues.
Which means I likely won’t end up with him
Paul are these solely your rankings? Will composite ones also eventually be posted showing how guys like Podhorzer and Zimmerman rank positions as well?
Solely mine. TBD on a March composites.
I would move Justin Bour into the top 20 for a couple of reasons, beyond my being in an OB league. I believe he will get more time at 1B than many are predicting, and more homeruns.
Pujols will see little time at 1B, and the 18 foot wall in Right Field no longer needs to be cleared. A line on it has made it 10 feet shorter.
Jose Martinez at #15 for a guy without a regular lineup spot? You must be awfully confident of either another Fowler collapse or a sudden trade.