2019 Shortstop Rankings
Shortstop is the deepest I can ever remember it and the deepest position on the diamond. There are 3 first rounders, 9 Top-50s, and 13 Top-100s at the position according to the NFBC ADP. You will almost certainly want your middle infielder from this pool, too.
Garrett Hampson has incredible SB upside. Jorge Polanco and Marcus Semien are solid power-speed combos. Paul DeJong and Eduardo Escobar are tied for the 6th-most HRs at the position over the last two years with 44. Amed Rosario capped off 2018 brilliantly. Asdrubal Cabrera is a boringly solid power option and Ketel Marte has some burgeoning pop (and some latent speed). Plus several others who have intriguing upside.
I POSTED THE WRONG LIST INITIALLY. I MADE SEVERAL UPDATES THAT WERE SUPPOSED TO BE INCLUDED AND I POSTED THE OLD LIST INSTEAD. THE NEW ONE IS UP AS OF 5:40 PM CENTRAL ON MARCH 1ST!
Podcast on SS: Link
- What’s your strategy at SS in shallower mixed leagues (10-12 teams)?
- What about 15-team NFBC-type leagues?
- Who’s your favorite gamble outside of my top 20?
In a points league, does Mondesi have any value at all? That OBP is such a killer and steals aren’t nearly as valuable in this format. I’m deciding if I should keep him on my radar if he falls to the very late rounds.
I wouldn’t he doesn’t have *any* value, but he surely takes a hit given that his value is no doubt driven by speed.
I was being a tad hyperbolic, but where would you slot him in a points league ranking? Above or below Profar? Thank you for answering and for the rankings!
I wouldn’t say he has no value in points leagues, in my points leagues he averaged around 3.5 fp/g last season… Because of the power/speed combo, he’s one that can make up for the excessive Ks and lack of walks in points leagues… I honestly wouldn’t discount him too much in points leagues (though I like him better as a 2B in points leagues this year than as an SS, because of the depth of the SS position and the later bargains you can get)
Kinda sad that Arcia is that far down. He’s the backup in my dynasty NL-only auction if I can’t get Baez, Segura, or Peraza.
Agreed on Arcia. He’s still young enough where he may pop one of these years when people least expect it, if given the chance.
It’s more about the depth of the position. I actually like him as a deep league flier, but he’s got a lot more IFs than many ahead of him
I like Asdrubal to outperform his rank. As a Mets fan, i watched him a lot the last few years, and it always seemed like he wasn’t playing through a tweak or lingering injury. Maybe playing in a warmer climate will help limit those nagging pains. And that lineup might be sneaky good in a division without any real killer SPs outside of Houston.
Sneaky solid af. Depth just pushes him low, but I loooove him as a MI
Assdribble is my guy. Got him everywhere as a MI or backup at multiple positions. Great ballpark, good hitter, multi position eligibility. I’ve had a few rare drafts where I somehow can’t get any of the elite hitters, which wasn’t ideal, but I go a couple fliers and then I am set.
Still bullish on Mondesi (I’d put him at 9 and move Bogaerts/Correa up one), but much closer to reasonable than I’ve been seeing.
That’s pretty lofty for Baez. Kinda want to see him repeat 90+% what he did last year before valuing him that high tbh
That’s interesting bc I’m pretty down on Baez compared to the market.
Outside your top 25 I like Chris Taylor and love Tulo at next to nothing. Nothing but upside for Tulo and if he is healthy he could move into the top 12.
I’m with you on Tulo.
He will be very good in those 22 games you get.
Paul, do the nightly changes to some of the FanGraphs Auction Calculator simply come from adjustments on playing time of a specific player (transaction, injury, etc)? For a $65 budget/12 team/NL only/ROTO5x5, Peter Alonso recently went from $2.70 to $2.00, Roman Quinn $2.40 to $1.10, Gerardo Parra from -$0.60 to $1.10, etc.
Glad to see you have finally come to see that Willy Adames and Ahmed Rosario are fairly close in value 🙂
You keep trying soooo hard with that. I think you’re trying to convince yourself more than you’re trying to convince me
Nah..if you recall my original point was that I thought you,picked Rosario to early in labr(10th Rnd)
And said “Adames is there 160 players later”
….can’t imagine 5 spots on your SS rankings is equal to 160 spots in a 15 team ?
How in the world can you have Trea Turner above Lindor? I shouldn’t even have to pull the numbers for that one.
IMO I would put Trea 5th overall.
If you did you’d see over 20 more SB for Trea vs only 10 fewer HR. SB are very hard to come by. Trea isn’t starting out a little late with injury. WAS probably has the better lineup. So no, it’s not a given Paul was wrong
Yeah, gotta figure Turner jumped him as soon as Lindor tweaked his hamstring.
You may not be pulling the numbers but Lindor pullled his hammy.
I think you’d be in the minority on this one. Lindor will miss at least 2 weeks with the calf. This isn’t a ranking of what they did in 2018.
Lol, apparently nobody knows the injury. If he is completely healthy after two weeks into the season, he’ll likely out-earn Turner. But calf injuries linger, and I doubt he is going to be running for a while.
Wow, Mondesi all the way to 7?? I will own him exactly 0 times on basis of 3.8% BB and 26.5% Ks last year. He’s in the Torres/Peraza/maybe Segura tier… though I’d rather have Segura, Torres, Peraza over him in that oder. I can’t buy into his last season HR/SB x650 AB since thats 30HR/60SB… feels way too fluky for his pedigree / minor league stats
I have him in one of my leagues, cause I ran out of options haha. Otherwise, yeah I agree Mondesi shouldn’t be up that high.
If you don’t like this ranking you can always go to razzball, where he is 19…overall. True story. Here is the issue; they might be right for a standard 5×5. I get that some people use other types of leagues, but his projection is 20/40. What part of that seems high? That makes him one of the most valuable players in baseball, even with a .240 batting average. Even if you go straight steamer which is a conservative model by default he ranks as the 36th best player in fantasy baseball..sooo, ya steals matter.
Turner has only been a slightly above average hitter the past two years in a row, and has pedestrian power to boot. I know steals are a thing but I don’t know how he can be ranked #1 in the arguably the deepest position
I wouldn’t call his 13, 11, 19 HR (2016,17,18 respectively) seasons exactly pedestrian. 15 HR/ 40 SB would be the most conservative I’d personally go — depending on how much you believe the Spring chatter of him running more is.
It’s not like he JUST gives steals, though. He also popped 19 HRs, with 103 R and 73 RBI last year. The year before, he managed 46 SB in just 98 games with 11 HR and 75 R. His 45 RBI would’ve paced to 75 had he matched last yr’s 740 PA which is great when RBIs is the last thing you’re wanting out of him. He did that with a .284 AVG, too.
He’s one of the most dynamic players in all of fantasy. I’d have Lindor #1 without the injury, but Turner would be a close #2 without a doubt. I’m surprised his ranking is questioned given Lindor’s injury, tbh.
Maybe a dumb question given how deep this position is, but where would Villar slot in for those leagues he has eligibility? Seems like it would be in the Peraza zone…
In the auction calculator settings, can someone explain the difference between the Steamer, Fan, The Bat, when setting the option, when trying to run prices ?
you’re choosing which projection system you’re basing the values on. Each system has it’s own projections for player performance, which will obviously affect values.
Man, Toronto’s SS position is so weak right now that several teams actually have multiple players ranked higher. Here’s hoping Bichette turns into something really good.
Hey Paul, I tried to search for last years rankings but was unsuccessful. How much did Elvis Andrus drop from last seasons rankings?
Pretty sure Andrus was ranked 6th in the March Composite Rankings last season.
You seem pretty down on Gurriel for a guy who smacked 18 last season and hit the ball enough to keep his avg up, despite the K rate.
I know he was streaky last season, but that’s pretty common in a player’s first cup of coffee.
Curious what you’re seeing that makes players like him or Adames so much lower than Andrus, who doesn’t have power or speed and seems increasingly unable to hit for average anymore.
Adames is ranked virtually equal to Andrus (25 vs. 23). I’m gonna guess Paul is taking into account Andrus’s body of work, and doesn’t like Gurriel’s putrid BB rate and total absence of speed. As rarely as Andrus walks, Gurriel walks half as often. And look at his XBH production as a whole. His value is looking completely HR dependent. Look at the ATC projections for the two players (to choose a model that is comparatively optimistic about Gurriel). Andrus’s projection is a substantially more valuable player.
Dear Paul, love your work.
In a league where we have these 8 batting cats: R HR TB RBI SB BB AVG and Ks, who would you draft 3rd overall? Nolan or JRam? You concerned about JRams struggles against breaking balls last year?
Thanks!
Andrelton Simmons behind Hampson, Escobar, Rosario? Nah.
That is #22 vs #14/#18/#20. Maybe less so with Hampson, but I imagine that #18-22 are virtual ties…? For fantasy purposes, defense beyond what makes the player eligible for more positions pretty much doesn’t count, so just looking at their project WAR offensive components, they are all in a ~5 run range.
Rosen nails it. I really love Hampson’s speed, hence him being top dog here, but the others are really tight. Simmons defense only helps insofar as guaranteeing his PT (which helps, but doesn’t really DELIVER fantasy value)
The most underrated/sleeper/breakout candidate = Orlando Arcia.
He is a headcase and the NLCS was mental floss.
Brandon Crawford has a starting job but gets ranked behind Kingery? Not sure if you’re super high on Kingery’s ability to recover from last year and get enough AB’s to be relevant, or if you just hate Crawford.
Crawford is WW filler at best… Kingery at least has some upside if he can secure the starting job at 3B over Franco
What is your opinion on Willy Adames? I had him last year and he was awesome for me towards the end of the year. Been strongly considering drafting him late once I get into my drafts.
Pretty stunned Dansby Swanson is below a ton of backup players. He may not ever hit, but he still plays every day. Surely Scott Kingery will not end up with more value by end of the year?
And I am also quite surprised by how low Lourdes Gurriel is. I have him quite a bit higher than Arcia, for sure.
Playing every day is a negative with Swanson. He’ll just keep hurting you.
I should probably tier these positions, espec. SS, bc I have Gurriel low-ish by rank, but he’s not thaaaaaaaaaat different than Simmons. There’s basically an SS glob.
Swanson’s still young enough not to be hopeless. If his wrist is healthy, he could break out. Of course, it doesn’t seem to be healthy. And he isn’t going to play every day if he doesn’t hit if Donaldson is healthy. Camargo will play somewhere, and a lot.
I know it’s a fantasy ranking, but the Rockies fan in me is stoked to see two guys in the top 14 on this list and three in the top 43.
I think I’m just going to take Tim Anderson way later, enjoy the surplus value from draft position, and use the earlier round for one more pitcher to kick everyone’s butt with.
He’s actually not going too late. He’s got a 130 ADP. I’m just not a fan.
The guy I like outside of the top 20 is less of a “gamble” and more of a “safe” type… that player is none other than Simba (AKA Andrelton Simmons)… nobody seems to want him, and he’s been a great 2nd/3rd SS on my teams the last 2 years… There’s “enough” homers+steals and the fact he doesn’t K and usually helps in the avg category makes me love him for where I’m able to draft him. The fact he’ll play almost the whole season still at age 29 also makes me believe we may not have seen his best season yet (doesn’t turn 30 til Sept). He’s only struck out 333 times in his CAREER!!! 333 Ks in 3,729 career PA.