2019 Reliever Rankings
I remember back in mid-December when first putting together a reliever ranking that I eventually threw my hands up around the early-20s and comforting myself with the idea that things would be much clearer by the time draft season kicked into high gear.
I was wrong.
A few situations have become clearer, but what I didn’t quite anticipate was that even more teams would push toward a more open setup rather than committing to one guy. Even a team like Philadelphia that brought in David Robertson and his 137 career saves has acknowledged that he will still share some of the duties with Seranthony Dominguez.
Another factor was that closer-types I thought could earn a full-scale role signed on with teams where they will remain middle relief studs, namely Adam Ottavino and Jeurys Familia. Oh ya, and there’s the fact that a clear top 5 closer is still unsigned and will likely end up just displacing a current closer when he does finally land unless the Red Sox do an about face.
I’m of two minds on all this. On the one hand as an analytically-oriented person, I think it’s completely the right move for teams to be flexible with their ninth inning situation and play the matchups as games unfold. On the other hand as a fantasy baseball diehard, it has made tackling saves a complete fustercluck.
I’ve got 95 relievers for you. The first table of 50 focuses on announced closers, those in the aforementioned flexible situations, a handful on deck in sketchy situations, and a host of hurt guys who will be in line for saves once healthy. The other list of 45 is really for Holds leaguers, deep leaguers, and a watch list for shallow leaguers.
| Pitcher | Team | Status | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edwin Diaz | NYM | CLOSER |
| 2 | Blake Treinen | OAK | CLOSER |
| 3 | Roberto Osuna | HOU | CLOSER |
| 4 | Kenley Jansen | LAD | CLOSER |
| 5 | Aroldis Chapman | NYY | CLOSER |
| 6 | Craig Kimbrel | FA | CLOSER |
| 7 | Felipe Vazquez | PIT | CLOSER |
| 8 | Brad Hand | CLE | CLOSER |
| 9 | Kirby Yates | SD | CLOSER |
| 10 | Corey Knebel | MIL | CLOSER |
| 11 | Sean Doolittle | WAS | CLOSER |
| 12 | David Robertson | PHI | IN THE MIX |
| 13 | Ken Giles | TOR | CLOSER |
| 14 | Jose Leclerc | TEX | CLOSER |
| 15 | Jordan Hicks | STL | IN THE MIX |
| 16 | Raisel Iglesias | CIN | IN THE MIX^ |
| 17 | Jose Alvarado | TB | CLOSER |
| 18 | Josh Hader | MIL | IN THE MIX? |
| 19 | Wade Davis | COL | CLOSER |
| 20 | Pedro Strop | CHC | CLOSER |
| 21 | Archie Bradley | ARI | IN THE MIX |
| 22 | Cody Allen | LAA | CLOSER |
| 23 | Arodys Vizcaino | ATL | CLOSER |
| 24 | Trevor May | MIN | IN THE MIX |
| 25 | Alex Colome | CWS | CLOSER |
| 26 | Matt Barnes | BOS | CLOSER |
| 27 | Will Smith | SF | IN THE MIX |
| 28 | Seranthony Dominguez | PHI | IN THE MIX |
| 29 | Shane Greene | DET | CLOSER |
| 30 | Blake Parker | MIN | IN THE MIX |
| 31 | Ryan Pressly | HOU | NEXT UP |
| 32 | Hunter Strickland | SEA | CLOSER |
| 33 | Drew Steckenrider | MIA | IN THE MIX |
| 34 | Sergio Romo | MIA | IN THE MIX |
| 35 | Joe Jimenez | DET | NEXT UP |
| 36 | Mychal Givens | BAL | CLOSER |
| 37 | A.J. Minter | ATL | HURT |
| 38 | Ryan Brasier | BOS | HURT |
| 39 | Jeremy Jeffress | MIL | HURT |
| 40 | Dellin Betances | NYY | NEXT UP |
| 41 | Andrew Miller | STL | IN THE MIX |
| 42 | Wily Peralta | KC | IN THE MIX |
| 43 | Brad Boxberger | KC | IN THE MIX |
| 44 | Mark Melancon | SF | IN THE MIX |
| 45 | Brandon Morrow | CHC | HURT |
| 46 | Kelvin Herrera | CWS | HURT |
| 47 | Jeurys Familia | NYM | NEXT UP |
| 48 | Alex Reyes | STL | IN THE MIX |
| 49 | Keone Kela | PIT | NEXT UP |
| 50 | Ty Buttrey | LAA | NEXT UP |
The historical volatility of closers tells us that several of the above guys will be out of the job by midseason making this next list of 45 worth knowing. The morbid thing about closer turnover is that even this upcoming list of 44 likely won’t even capture all the guys who nab 5+ saves this year, but I had to cut it off somewhere.
| Pitcher | Team | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Martinez | STL | HURT/IN THE MIX? |
| Taylor Rogers | MIN | IN THE MIX |
| Steve Cishek | CHC | IN THE MIX |
| Greg Holland | ARI | IN THE MIX |
| Craig Stammen | SD | NEXT UP |
| Jared Hughes | CIN | IN THE MIX |
| Seung Hwan Oh | COL | NEXT UP |
| Trevor Rosenthal | WAS | NEXT UP |
| Joakim Soria | OAK | NEXT UP |
| Bud Norris | TOR | NEXT UP |
| Joe Kelly | LAD | NEXT UP |
| Diego Castillo | TB | NEXT UP |
| Ryne Stanek | TB | MR STUD |
| Richard Rodriguez | PIT | MR STUD |
| Corbin Burnes* | MIL | MR STUD |
| Chad Green | NYY | MR STUD |
| Adam Ottavino | NYY | MR STUD |
| Chaz Roe | TB | MR STUD |
| Zack Britton | NYY | MR STUD |
| Lou Trivino | OAK | MR STUD |
| Carl Edwards Jr. | CHC | MR STUD |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | MR STUD |
| Tony Watson | SF | MR STUD |
| Reyes Moronta | SF | MR STUD |
| Scott Oberg | COL | MR STUD |
| Yoshihisa Hirano | ARI | MR STUD |
| Adam Conley | MIA | MR STUD |
| Jake Diekman | KC | MR STUD |
| Scott Alexander | LAD | MR STUD |
| Kyle Barraclough | WAS | MR STUD |
| Brad Brach | CHC | MR STUD |
| Richard Bleier | BAL | MR STUD |
| Tyler Beede/Ray Black | SF | DEEP RADAR |
| Tyler Thornburg | BOS | DEEP RADAR |
| Touki Toussaint | ATL | DEEP RADAR |
| Jesse Chavez | TEX | DEEP RADAR |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | DEEP RADAR |
| Nate Jones | CWS | DEEP RADAR |
| Sandy Alcantara | MIA | DEEP RADAR |
| Kyle Crick | PIT | DEEP RADAR |
| Tanner Scott | BAL | DEEP RADAR |
| Fernando Romero | MIN | DEEP RADAR |
| Shawn Armstrong | SEA | DEEP RADAR |
| Dan Altavilla | SEA | DEEP RADAR |
Great list, especially after I spent Saturday culling the “Don’t Pay for Josh Hader” article for some good names that show up here. Closers really are a messy challenge this year.
When you have someone listed on the second list, are you assuming all of them will be relievers for most of the season? For instance, Touki Toussaint is listed but I thought he might be getting that fifth rotation spot.
Would you actually draft Drewgio Steckenromo or Joe Jimenez ahead of Givens? The skills don’t seem that different and at least Givens comes with near 100% probability of opening with the job. I think he’s in a [fantasy only] nice place of being too established to be all that cheap in arb while not all that dominant such that other teams will not be beating down the door to acquire him midseason. If can he scrape by Shane Greene style providing bulk saves with respectable K’s while not wowing anyone he probably stays put and prevents younger/better[?] up and coming O’s relievers from accumulating saves and getting expensive in arb themselves.
I’ve walked the walk of taking Jimenez over Givens. Haven’t landed any Romo shares but I also have him above Givens. Would take Steck later personally.
I think even Paul will agree when I say Givens is mediocre.
This is great work Paul: also I wonder if leagues should start looking at SV+HLD as teams move further and further away from “their one guy” in the 9th.
Hot take: fantasy pitching is going to go under a huge change in the next 10 years because of Openers, massive bullpens, and greater understanding of advanced pitching stats. I don’t expect 5×5 in its current form to make it through the 2020s.
But why not? To me the use of openers makes fantasy more fun, not less. Also, draft day closer targets involves more luck, which I love me some variance.
Openers ironically reinforce using Wins over Quality Starts, since the “starter” is still most likely to get the Win due to the 5 IP clause, yet nobody is obviously getting a Quality Start.
Ya I’d absolutely love my starters to get an opener. Guys like Charlie Morton, Ross Stripling, etc…
Holds were added 2 years ago in my H2H points league. The opener concepts could screw us when it comes to quality start points though.
Yes. Saves+Holds recently replaced saves in my league as well. Maybe a list of relievers according to ability and opportunity for both stats would be best?
We switched from W to IP and SV to SVHld in my main and like it. Cuts out a lot of the luck of wins, and nobody can try to punt IP.
For the Cardinals’ sake, I hope Carlos Martinez is not relieving at all. For fantasy purposes, I hope he is because one of only 2 teams better than me (on paper) has him and needs his innings badly lol.
Bit surprised to see Chapman “all the way down” to 5. Most leagues seem to be taking him right after Diaz still.
I believe the Reds manager indicated they will use Iglesias but not every time out as their main closer, no? Thanks for putting this together.
You are correct, David Bell eluded to using Iglesias in the highest leverage situations, not specifically as a closer. Tough for Paul to catch all these little nuances with the 24/7 new cycles.
Agreed, and thanks for backing me up.
Paul’s relievers run deep, so deep ain’t no relievers left to sleep.
Seriously though the depth here is awesome. There are some names that weren’t on my radar in your 44 More list that will absolutely help my squad.
I took Diaz as my number 1, I didn’t hesitate, to call Edwin Diaz my top gun.
what size league? what round? trying to decide whether to jump for a premier closer early or hope value drops to me later.
At about 3 minutes in, the answers will be revealed to you. I didn’t even have to use my A-DP.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4UqMyldS7Q
thought on my new fave sleeper, Ray Black>
Ah, I totally forgot my guy Black!
Just thought for this, but I feel like a lot of these guys are ranked high based on opportunity vs talent, and given the roles are so fluid over the season, this view makes it hard to compare guys. I’d much rather like a view where you ranked guys more on ability, not just the Save stat.
Like, Ottavino and Hader were top 15 relievers last year even though they only got a handful of saves, just on the value of their Ks and peripherals alone.
YES!
I would add Seth Lugo to the MR STUD group, also has SP eligibility in Yahoo.
Good call he threw his curve more than ever and the strikeout rate went way up. I still want him to get a chance as a starter, but that seems like a pipe dream at this stage.
Good call. I loooove Lugo so I still have him rather prominently in my SP list for someone without a gig
I like to read them as ‘Mister STUD’
Mister manager!
Thanks Paul! Bit surprised to see LeClerc at 14. Is he that low because of the team situation?
A bit, yes. I’m also a little torn on whether or not he’ll hold the walk gains. And while he is no doubt nasty, can we really expect 1 HR for a FB heavy guy in Texas? The pop-up rate helps, but I just can’t see another 1 HR season.
Wouldn’t be surprised if Jordan Hicks is at the top of the list for the next few years. I can’t imagine too many players look forward to facing him.
Totally agree. I’m getting him in lots of places.
You would actually draft Hicks over Alvarado and Davis this year?
Yes, I already have
Sincerely appreciate the comprehensiveness, thank you! I’ve nothing but kudos for the “next 44.” As a spoiled long-time Fangraphs reader, it would be extraordinary for the Top 50 list to distinguish capability from opportunity as another commenter already suggested. FIP is readily available in depth charts so I will add that myself. Would be great to see projected save opportunity % range (e.g., 85%+, 76% to 85%, and so forth) versus the designation “closer.” Even if some of the bands would have to very large b/c of situations like Kimbrel, current injuries, injury history, and other phenomena.
I am all over Brad Hand this year, but surprised to see him so low here. Any reason that you’ve got Velasquez and Kimbrel higher? Imagine it might be due to Hand’s HR issues?
Great list.
Is Osuna really the #3 option? his XFip was up around 3.70 last year, his K/9 was down to 7.58, and Houston’s pen has spectacular depth (i.e. if he struggles at all there are multiple candidates to replace him).
As you’ve ranked him at 3, I guess your answer is ‘yes, he is’, but he’d have to be the weakest #3 RP in many many years. As soon as Kimbrel signs, does he slot in behind Treinen and Diaz at #3?
I hear ya, but I think that’s just a little too “last year” focused. I won’t pretend for a second that he didn’t 10000000% create his own trouble with reprehensible actions so I’m not pitying or anything, but the turmoil likely played a role in some of his on-field shortcomings.
He had a 17% SwStr w/HOU and just a 22% K rate, no way that happens again w/that kinda swing & miss. While I wouldn’t project a 3% HR/FB rate again, I also wouldn’t really rely on xFIP which brings HR/FB back to avg when he’s consistently been way better than avg at suppressing them (and even his worst season was a lg avg 10.5% HR/FB).
They’ve named him the closer and while they have candidates behind him, he didn’t even actually *struggle* in terms of results at all last year so I don’t see him as someone on the cusp of being replaced short of a loooong period of struggle.
I’m with adrock here. He wasn’t good last year, doesn’t strike out enough people, had the whole DV thing that could mess with his mental state, and has a better pitcher in Pressly behind him. Also I am not certain the Astros won’t get creative as they are a creative team. I’d also caution on Kimbrel. We have seen how royally he struggled down the stretch, and now he is skipping spring training.
Where are you getting the “he wasn’t good last year” fiction? Every closer situation is influx bc that’s the position, so a nebulous “I think they’ll get creative” doesn’t really do much to move me off a position, especially when they’ve already named him the closer, something a lot of teams haven’t even done yet.
Kimbrel didn’t struggle royally down the stretch last year. He allowed runs in 2 of his last 15 outings and 4 of the 5 ER came in one outing. Otherwise, he had a 42% K rate. He did walk 10 in those 14.3 IP, but allowed 3 H. If you’re referring to the playoffs, I’m wholly unconvinced. I’m not burying one of the best RPs in the game based on 3-4 shaky October outings. The #6 ranking is my caution with him given that he’s teamless and likely to be ST-less at this point. That said, I think we can all agree that of all the positions in the game, RP needs the least amount of ramp up time.
Justin Anderson?
How is Leclerc “In the Mix” when the closest competition is Jesse Chavez at the end of the second list in “Deep Radar?”
Disregard. Must have read it wrong. Tough getting old.
I remain unconvinced that Knebel is the clearcut closer. They almost assuredly are going to do a variation of what they did last year, with Knebel, Hader and Jeffress all getting saves. Jeffress was lights out last year, and I think is a very solid late round choice as he is going to get saves too, and talent doesn’t always = opportunity.
Why so low on Leclerc? I have seen him up near 6 in some rankings, and he is talented, has a job, etc.
I would personally bump Osuna down, as I just have a bad feeling about him this year and his backup is likely a better pitcher. Kimbrel is about right, guys who come late seem to struggle. I’d put Leclerc around the 10 spot, and have Hader up there as well. I couldn’t ever see myself paying up for Jansen with last years “struggles” (he was still fine) and velocity currently in the 87-88 range.
I don’t dislike Leclerc, but he’s living on the wire a bit as far as being *elite* and there’s no way I can take him up at 6 right now. Does he hold the BB gains? Even at this BB rate (11%), he has to maintain his insane hit suppression to keep the excellent WHIP. He has filthy stuff and generates lots of pop-ups which are automatic outs, but this heavy of a flyball pitcher can’t be expected to skate through another year in Texas allowing 1 HR.
That said, if you’re only moving him up to 10, we’re really not far off. I don’t have all that much of a split on 6-14 and then even 15-20 is knocking on the door of heavy confidence.
makes sense
Good list, great Logic reference.
I was hoping someone would get it!!