Archive for Rankings

Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: Catcher

Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

With the two largest position groups out of the way, the Ottoneu rankings push takes a breather with the smallest position group to finish this week. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Changelog

  • 2/13/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Added player notes for all players in tier $1-$2 and above. Updated tier placement for eight players (green = moved up, red = moved down).

 


Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP


Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 20-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. Let’s get into it.

Ottoneu Points C Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Position Projected Pts Pts/PA Notes
$28-$35 1 Cal Raleigh C 919.6 1.43 Probably won’t hit 60 home runs again but is clearly the best catcher in baseball. Huge power supported by real plate discipline gains in 2025.
$15-$20 2 Will Smith C 636.4 1.32 2025 was his best offensive season since ’20 but it might have been BABIP driven. He did have career-high walk rate and contact quality looked a lot like it did back in ’20.
$15-$20 3 Ben Rice C/1B 644.7 1.31 Huge breakout in 2025. Should get regular at-bats as 1B in New York, but will probably loose C eligibility in 2027.
$15-$20 4 Hunter Goodman C 678.6 1.31 This tier is full of breakout catchers! I like his foundation a little less than the other players in this tier — poor plate approach gives him a low floor.
$15-$20 5 Shea Langeliers C 678.0 1.31 Another huge breakout in 2025. Cut strikeout rate by 7.5 points and absolutely mashed in 2H (176 wRC+).
$15-$20 6 Iván Herrera C 612.7 1.31 Another huge breakout in 2025. Should get regular at-bats as DH in St. Louis and could retain C eligibility for 2027.
$15-$20 7 William Contreras C 802.3 1.27 Played through a fractured finger in 2025 and his power output dropped. Should bounce back if healthy.
$10-$14 8 Drake Baldwin C 602.6 1.27 Very impressive debut in 2025 that earned him ROY honors. Good plate approach and solid contact quality give him a high floor.
$6-$9 9 Gabriel Moreno C 446.1 1.19 Has dealt with a number of injuries over the last few years, but has been productive when healthy.
$6-$9 10 Samuel Basallo C/1B 462.0 1.18 Struggled a bit in his brief call up in 2025 but is still just 21. Position is a question mark but should force his way into the lineup.
$6-$9 11 Alejandro Kirk C 543.4 1.18 High contact approach might be a little BABIP dependent, but improved contact quality significantly in 2025.
$6-$9 12 Francisco Alvarez C 451.3 1.18 Dramatically improved contact quality after returning from midseason demotion but hand injuries derailed his progress.
$6-$9 13 Salvador Perez C/1B 695.4 1.14 The home runs are nice, but that’s about it. He gets regular at-bats whether its at C, 1B, or DH.
$6-$9 14 Adley Rutschman C 613.7 1.13 He’s been below replacement level for a season and a half now but the promise of a huge bounce back is still present.
$3-$5 15 Ryan Jeffers C 525.3 1.14 Power disappeared in 2025 but plate discipline improved.
$3-$5 16 Yainer Diaz C 611.7 1.13 Two straight years of declining production. Aggressive approach means he’s BABIP dependent and power has slid backwards.
$3-$5 17 Tyler Stephenson C 475.1 1.11 Big improvement in contact quality but strikeout rate jumped over 30%.
$3-$5 18 Carter Jensen C 472.0 1.10 Really impressive late season debut in 2025. Playing time in question, but should take over full-time catching duties soon.
$3-$5 19 Agustín Ramírez C 593.6 1.09 Another young catcher whose debut season in 2025 was a little rocky. Projections think he’ll take a step forward.
$3-$5 20 Kyle Teel C 456.6 1.09 Solid debut season in 2025. Will likely fall back to earth a bit when his BABIP regresses, but solid skills to build on.
$1-$2 21 Austin Wells C 465.2 1.08 Should be a good source of power but plate discipline took a big step backwards in 2025.
$1-$2 22 J.T. Realmuto C 522.0 1.08 He’s back in Philadelphia but 2025 was his worst season since his rookie year in 2015. How much longer can he catch 100+ games?
$1-$2 23 Dillon Dingler C 443.8 1.08 Pretty significant breakout in his first full season in the big leagues. Good contact quality but might be a little too dependent on BABIP.
$1-$2 24 Dalton Rushing C 271.2 1.08 Playing time blocked behind Will Smith, but could force his way into at-bats in the outfield mix or as backup catcher.
$1-$2 25 Moisés Ballesteros C 451.7 1.07 Top prospect should get plenty of time as DH in 2026. Promising late season debut, but contact quality is a little lacking.
$1-$2 26 Victor Caratini C/1B 362.0 1.06 Should see plenty of playing time as DH and backup catcher. Decent underlying skills and improved strikeout rate by 2.5 points in 2025.
$0-$1 27 Josue Briceño C N/A N/A
$0-$1 28 Sean Murphy C 373.5 1.09
$0-$1 29 Gary Sánchez C 274.8 1.08
$0-$1 30 Carson Kelly C 387.1 1.07
$0-$1 31 Danny Jansen C 336.4 1.03
$0-$1 32 Joey Bart C 323.4 1.03
$0-$1 33 Luis Campusano C 351.6 1.02
$0-$1 34 Carlos Narváez C 417.8 1.01
$0-$1 35 Kyle Higashioka C 273.6 0.99
$0-$1 36 Edgar Quero C 415.2 0.98
$0-$1 37 Logan O’Hoppe C 434.4 0.98
$0-$1 38 Harry Ford C 363.1 0.97
$0-$1 39 Bo Naylor C 398.6 0.97
$0 40 Ethan Salas C N/A N/A
$0 41 Connor Wong C 324.4 0.99
$0 42 Liam Hicks C/1B 329.3 0.99
$0 43 Miguel Amaya C 254.1 0.96
$0 44 Endy Rodriguez C/1B 247.8 0.95
$0 45 Travis d’Arnaud C 238.1 0.93
$0 46 James McCann C 186.3 0.93
$0 47 Mitch Garver C 282.4 0.92
$0 48 Hunter Feduccia C 250.8 0.90
$0 49 Freddy Fermin C 335.3 0.89
$0 50 Jake Rogers C 217.4 0.88
$0 51 Keibert Ruiz C 328.5 0.86
$0 52 Elias Díaz C 263.2 0.86
$0 53 Pedro Pagés C 290.0 0.86
$0 54 Rafael Marchán C 118.7 0.85
$0 55 Reese McGuire C 153.5 0.85
$0 56 Jose Trevino C 214.6 0.82
$0 57 Patrick Bailey C 362.5 0.82
$0 58 Henry Davis C 225.5 0.81
$0 59 Jonah Heim C 326.7 0.81
$0 60 Jacob Stallings C 161.9 0.80
$0 61 Nick Fortes C 222.2 0.78
$0 62 Korey Lee C 231.0 0.75
$0 63 Ben Rortvedt C 158.8 0.70
$0 64 Christian Vázquez C 171.6 0.69

Second Base 2026 Fantasy Rankings

Changelog

  • 1/2/2026 – First Release
  • 2/11/2026 – Write-ups added for all players, many rankings changes within Tiers 6 and 7; Injury updates on Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg, Tommy Edman; Updated ADP data from NFBC Draft Champions to NFBC Online Championships

Ranking Methodology

  • $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
  • ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
  • 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net.

The Elite Tier

Clearly above the rest.
The Elite Tier
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
1 Ketel Marte ARI 2B 33 $18
2 Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY 2B/3B 22 $16

Ketel Marte has been the best second baseman over the past two seasons, and it hasn’t been particularly close either. Since the start of 2024, his 149 wRC+ is 29 points higher than the next second baseman. He leads all qualified players at the position in HRs, runs, RBI, and batting average in that time as well. 2025 also saw him post the best barrel rate (13.5%) and maxEV (119.6) of his career. He gets drafted after Jazz in nearly every room which doesn’t make a ton of sense to me

Jazz Chisholm Jr. had the most complete fantasy season of his career in 2025, reaching the 30-30 plateau for the first time in his career despite missing 32 games. Durability has been a bit of a question in his career, but he has played in 77% of possible games since the start of 2024. His strikeout rate will likely keep the batting average in the .240/.250 range, but you can live with that considering the categorical output and the positional versatility you get.

Not Quite Elite, But Still Foundational Assets

Fantastic options that should be targets for most managers
Not Quite Elite, But Still Foundational Assets
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
3 Brice Turang MIL 2B 56 $11
4 Nico Hoerner CHC 2B/SS 112 $11
5 Jose Altuve HOU 2B/OF 122 $11

Brice Turang made some excellent strides with his power output in 2025. He raised his barrel rate from 2.4% to 7.9%, and his hard hit rate went from 29.7% to 47.4%. Those are massive gains to make over the course of a single season, especially since Turang didn’t sacrifice any of his bat-to-ball skills and still achieved a .288 batting average. He represents a bit of a no-mans land after the first two names and before the next batch by ADP, and it’s justified in my eyes. He is very easily the #3 second baseman heading into 2026.

Nico Hoerner quietly had a fantastic 2025 season, something that didn’t seem guaranteed last offseason after he underwent shoulder surgery. At this point, we have an established baseline expectation of the production Hoerner brings: single-digit HRs with ~ 90 runs, 30 SBs, and a batting average that will be close to .300. He’s a great draft pick as long as you compensate for the lack of power you’ll be getting.

Jose Altuve has his doubters every year, and he always ends up producing anyway. Even at 35 years of age, he managed to hit 26 HRs while providing solid coverage across the other categories. He may not be the super elite target that he once was, but I’m not willing to count him out until we see the bottom really fall out from under, and we didn’t really get any string indications that he will be hitting that cliff in the immediate future. Now, we also get the added benefit of outfield eligibility.

Excellent Fall Back Options

If you miss out on the top two tiers, you should feel more than comfortable with these players starting for your squad
Excellent Fall Back Options
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
6 Maikel Garcia KCR 2B/3B/SS/OF 72 $14
7 Ozzie Albies ATL 2B 162 $6
8 Jordan Westburg BAL 2B/3B 124 $13

Maikel Garcia had the breakout season in 2025 that many were expecting a year earlier. He was a true five category asset and also cut down on his strikeout rate while improving his launch angle and barrel rate. Those playing on Yahoo or sites with lighter eligibility thresholds will get a goldmine utility player that they can stick just about anywhere in their lineup

Is this ranking of Ozzie Albies an indication that I believe he will bounce back, or is the position simply so bad that even a guy who was arguably droppable last year is entering the year as a Top 10 option? Well, yes on both fronts. We have seen several elite fantasy seasons from Ozzie Albies and I find it very hard to believe that all of the magic is just gone before he even turns 30. The Braves are positioned to be one of the better lineups in baseball (stop me if you’ve heard that one before) and Albies will be afforded the opportunity to play every single day. I’d personally be very surprised if we don’t see him turn things around in a big way in 2026.

Talent has never been the question when it comes to Jordan Westburg, it’s just been a matter of staying on the field. The positive news is that he did finish the season healthy and the Orioles’ lineup looks as good as it ever has in this era of Baltimore baseball. We are projecting him to hit 2nd in the O’s lineup and should that stick, he’ll find himself in a very opportune spot for run production. 2/11 Update: Westburg is already dealing with a sore oblique and given his track record of health (or lack theirof), he has to move down a few spots until we have a clearer picture from the Orioles

The Question Marks

The players who have big questions surrounding their value entering the season, but all are very capable of returning Top 100 value if thinhs break right
The Question Marks
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
9 Ceddanne Rafaela BOS 2B/OF 138 $11
10 Brandon Lowe PIT 2B 193 $1
11 Luke Keaschall MIN 2B 136 $5
12 Matt McLain CIN 2B/SS 186 $5
13 Jackson Holliday BAL 2B 140 $2
14 Jorge Polanco NYM 2B/3B 227 $4
15 Xavier Edwards MIA 2B/SS 188 $6
16 Marcus Semien NYM 2B 261 $5

Ceddanne Rafaela fits more into the “accumulator” category as opposed to someone who will give you elite per-game production. He is arguably the best defensive center fielder in all of baseball so playing time will never be in jeopardy. However, he has an exceptionally high chase rate and SwStr%, which have been big reasons why his OBP has never exceeded .295. He’ll probably provide something close to a 20-20 season, just be prepared for it to come with a .240 batting average and potentially underwhelming counting stats.

What will Brandon Lowe look like in Pittsburgh? Well, I think fairly similar to what we’ve seen in Tampa. The initial instinct will be to think that Lowe is getting a park upgrade considering that the Rays are going back to Tropicana Field, but PNC park isn’t all that great for left-handed power hitters either. Over the past three years, PNC park ranks 25th in HR factor for LHH, and it was actually dead last in 2025, coming in more than 30% worse than league average. At the end of the day, Lowe is powerful enough to mostly compensate for that, but he may end up losing a few dingers. We also have to worry about his durability, as he’s never played 150 games in a season and the closest he came was 149 way back in 2021.

Many are exciting at the prospect of drafting Luke Keaschall, but I think he may be a bit overpriced in early draft rooms. While I think he can hit for a strong batting average and likely provide ~25 SBs, I worry about the power potential and what his counting stats will look like in a rebuilding Twins’ lineup. He had just a 5.2% barrel rate and 31.2% hard hit rate as a rookie. Combined with his 46% ground ball rate, that translated to just four homers in 49 games. He’s a better target for OBP and point league players than he is for standard categories and roto formats.

2025 was a horrific season for Matt McLain that saw him lose time as the Reds’ everyday second baseman. He still managed 15 HRs and 18 SBs, but it came with just 50 RBI and a .220 batting average over nearly 600 plate appearances. His hard hit metrics plummeted throughout the course of the season and he finished with a 77 wRC+. I still mostly believe in his talent, especially while hitting in that park, but we may have to adjust our expectations down a bit from what we thought he could achieve following his incredible rookie year in 2023. He may be able to reach those heights again, but it would be wiser to expect something in the 20-20 neighborhood and he pleasantly surprised if he is able to surpass that.

I am expecting Jackson Holliday to take a big step forward in 2026 now that he’s had close to 900 plate appearances to get acclimated to big league pitching. He’s been mostly disappointing to this point but hasn’t really been overmatched by big league pitching either. He’s has an 8.3 BB% and 24.4 K% with relatively solid plate discipline metrics, especially considering he just turned 22 in early December. He’s expected to lead off for the Orioles, at least against RHPs, and we could see a monster season from Holiday if he is able to lift the ball just a bit more than what we’ve seen to this point. 2/11 Update: Holliday will miss opening day with a broken hamate bone and that does concern me with regards to his power for the rest of the season. This feels like a situation that the Orioles will approach carefully as opposed to rushing him back, so we cold end up looiking at a mised month (or more) with potentially diminished skills in the immediate aftermath.

Jorge Polanco was terrific in 2025, especially considering he was hitting in one of the worst parks in the league. Across 138 games, he hit 26 HRs with a .265 average and a 132 wRC+. Now he’ll be in New York hitting right behind Juan Soto and should thrive in a better ballpark and RBI spot. He is one of the more mis-priced players on the board in early drafts, he should be going at least 75 picks earlier on average.

Xavier Edwards did just about exactly what we thought he would in 2025. A very marginal power output that was accompanied by 27 steals and a .283 batting average, and that is about what we should expect again. He’s a phenomenal contact hitter and could compete for the batting title in a given year. In a lot of ways, he’s a poor man’s Nico Hoerner. You can expect relatively similar production from Edwards with a lower floor in most categories, but if you miss out on Hoerner and want to shore up your speed/BA categories, Edwards is a solid option in what has become a very interesting offence in Miami.

I’m very intrugued by Marcus Semien as a New York Met. It’s very likely that he will be sandwiched between Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto in that lineup, which would provide Semien with a massive opportunity to provide runs and RBI. While he did miss some time in 2025, Semien has built his career around being a guy who plays 162. Even if he can’t quite play every game in 2026, I can easily see a world where he suits up 150 times, and even with a degrading skillset, ~150 games in that lineup spot could mean he comes close to 100 runs and RBI. He’s priced as a bench piece who could very easily become a cornerstone of your lineup.

Mediocre/Middle Infield targets

The guys who you won’t be terribly excited to draft, but will likely return a small profit by the end of the year
Mediocre/Middle Infield targets
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
17 Gleyber Torres DET 2B 254 $7
18 Brendan Donovan SEA 1B/2B/3B/OF 323 $0
19 Bryson Stott PHI 2B 186 $7
20 Luis García Jr. WAS 2B 231 $4
21 Brett Baty NYM 2B/3B 286 -$5
23 Lenyn Sosa CWS 1B/2B 429 -$11

Gleyber Torres is back in Detroit following a very solid first year with the team in 2025. However, it was a tale of two season for Gleyber. He slashed .281/.387/.425 in the first half with a 131 wRC+. In the second half, he slashed .223/.320/.339 with an 88 wRC+. This will probably keep people away and is likely why his ADP has been around 250 all draft season, but I’m not overly concerned about the splits. Torres is still only 29 and he represents a very high floor at a terrible position. He’s a solid fall back option as a starter in deeper leagues, a very good MI candidate, and could function as a bench asset in shallower leagues

While his 2026 home is still undetermined with trade rumors flying all around, Brendan Donovan should be counted on as a solid asset wherever he lands. Across four seasons and nearly 500 major league games, Donovan has a 119 wRC+ with a .282/.361/.411 slash line. For fantasy purposes, he’s a great option to throw in when you know he’ll be facing a lot of RHPs, but he is a bit limited overall considering the lack of power and speed. He’s a great batting average asset and you could get away with starting him in your MI spot, but I’d prefer if he wasn’t in the starting 2B spot if possible due to the lack of categorical juice. 2/11 Update: A trade to the Mariners should actually help his value despite a ballparl downgrade. We were never relying on donovan for power to begin wth and now he is projected to lead off for a very, very good mariners lineup. He’s a very strong target in all formats.

While there has been some fluctuation in his year-to-year output, we have a pretty solid baseline when it comes to Bryson Stott. He plays nearly every day in a solid lineup and is a great speed threat if you went power-heavy early in your draft. He goes around pick 200 in most drafts, which is more than reasonable considering what he’s done to this point in his career. It’s also about the lowest he’s gone since he became a household fantasy name in 2023.

Luis Garcia Jr. wasn’t quite what we were hoping for in 2025, but it was necessarily a bad campaign either. He went 16-14 while providing decent counting stats and a .252 batting average, but it does look like he is capable of more than that. He showcased a career high 9% barrel rate and 46% hard hit rate and also cut down on the ground balls for the third consecutive season. He’s a nice option for those looking to punt the position in deeper formats and go bargain bin hunting, as I’d still feel comfortable with him as my starting 2B in a 15 team league.

Brett Baty was surprisingly really good in 2025, but it mostly flew under the radar. He hit 18 HRs with a .254 average and a 111 wRC+, and really thrived in the second half with an .829 OPS and 135 wRC+. He’ll enter 2026 splitting time between second, third, and DH and I expect him to enter the lineup on most days. I’m not as confident as others with regards to the Mets’ infield construction, especially when talking about the third base viability of Bo Bichette, so I expect there will still be ample playing time for Baty. With an ADP in the 260s and qualifying at two of the worst positions in fantasy, he’s looking like a great late pick

2025 was Lenyn Sosa’s first full major league season, and he delivered with 22 HRs, 75 RBIs, and a .264 batting average. He displayed an impressive 10.4% barrel rate with very strong contact rates as well. After some offseason moves, he is now projected to serve in a branch role for the White Sox but I don’t see that as being very likely. This isn’t a team that is good enough to leave Sosa on the bench with any regularity, even given his defensive shortcomings. I expect him to see time at first, second, and third base throughout the season with DH reps mixed in as well. He is being drafted beyond the Top 300 picks in NFBC drafts, and I think he has become a value.

The Boring Tier

These players all have their uses but aren’t particularly exciting and likely won’t be mainstays in your starting lineup all season.
The Boring Tier
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
22 José Caballero NYY 2B/3B/SS 211 -$12
24 Colt Keith DET 2B 487 -$4
25 Ernie Clement TOR 1B/2B/3B/SS 322 $6
26 Luis Arraez SF 1B/2B 290 $7
27 Otto Lopez MIA 2B/3B/SS 237 $5
29 Jeff McNeil ATH 2B/OF 690 $2

While he is not the most exciting player to draft, Jose Caballero will fit a lot of builds in 2026 due to his elite speed. Since the start of 2024, his 93 stolen bases trail only Elly De La Cruz and he led the majors in 2025 with 49. Caballero was initially projected to serve in more of a utility role for the Yankees, but Anthony Volpe’s injury means that more playing time has opened up for him at shortstop to begin the season. He is a traditional fantasy “rabbit” that will likely only assist you in one category, but there is value in that for speed deficient teams given his mid-200s ADP

Colt Keith has some fairly strong underlying skills, and is a target in particular when it comes to OBP formats. Over 137 games last year, he slashed .256/.333/.413 with 13 HRs and a 9.2% barrel rate. He also is a very good contact hitter who doesn’t chase a lot of pitches. RosterResource is also projecting him to lead off for the Tigers which should add to his fairly pedestrian run total from a year ago. An added bonus is that he has eligibility all over the field and will be easy to squeeze into your lineups.

Ernie Clement had a strong 2025 season and went on a legendary run in the postseason, but he doesn’t have a very strong fantasy skillset. In 157 games and 588 plate appearances, he managed just nine homers and six steals while driving in 50. His .277 batting average and 83 runs scored were nice, but the main appeal here is his multi position eligibility and being able to plug him in when one of your starters is injured or sitting. If he is in your starting lineup with regularity, you will inevitably start to fall behind with power and speed.

I believe we have reached the point where Luis Arraez has become undervalued. While he doesn’t possess a well rounded fantasy skillset, he has the ability to win a batting title and even in a poor 2025, he still hit .292. He has at least 600 plate appearances in every season going back to 2022 and his batting average with that volume is incredibly valuable. As the leadoff hitter for the Giants we can expect a solid run total to go along with his usual chip in homers and steals. His ADP is usually around the 280 range, and it feels like the market has soured on him a bit too much this year.

Otto Lopez had a very serviceable fantasy season in 2025, putting up a 15/15 season with 77 runs and a .246 batting average. The issue is that it took him nearly 600 plate appearances to do so and he doesn’t have a strong offensive skillset when you look beneath the hood. While he is a strong contact hitter, most projections see him as a ~.260 bat with very limited power. He’s also projected to be the #6 hitter in the Marlins lineup which is far from ideal for fantasy counting stats. He’s not necessarily a fade, but not really a target unless I am desperate for a middle infielder.

Jeff McNeil feels like a very good fit in the Athletics’ lineup. On a team full of young players, McNeil is the only bat besides Brent Rooker in the lineup who is over 30 years old and should provide a stable veteran presence. We could see a few more home runs than usual given the very favourable home park that the A’s will be playing in again, and we’ve seen the batting average upside throughout his entire career. McNeil will likely be in the middle of the order somewhere but don’t be surprised to see him get some top-of-the-order reps as well. He’s a great but right now.

We’re Throwing Darts, Folks

The point of a draft where you are simply throwing darts and hoping for the best
We’re Throwing Darts, Folks
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
28 Kody Clemens MIN 1B/2B/OF 731 -$22
30 Chase Meidroth CWS 2B/SS 595 -$4
31 Willi Castro COL 2B/3B/SS/OF 295 $1
32 Brooks Lee MIN 2B/3B/SS 528 -$1
33 Tommy Edman LAD 2B/3B/OF 406 $1
34 Kristian Campbell BOS 2B/OF -$31
35 Jonathan India KCR 2B 673 -$7
36 Jake Cronenworth SDP 1B/2B/SS -$3
37 Christian Moore LAA 2B -$10
38 Andrés Giménez TOR 2B 467 $5
39 Gavin Lux TB 2B -$12
40 Hyesong Kim LAD 2B/SS/OF -$25

Kody Clemens has a similar story to Lenyn Sosa. They both played their first full season in 2025, had success for a re-building team, and are now projected as bench pieces. As with Sosa, I think this will not end up being the case with Clemens. He hit 19 HR in just 386 plate appearances, anchored by a 12% barrel rate and 48.3% hard hit rate. His power is also combined with solid contact and low chase rates. He’s a strong defender at first and second base, and I can see him functioning in a utility role that sees him playing ~5 times per week. He’s an afterthought in drafts with his 392 ADP. I’d be buying the dip where possible, especially in NFBC Draft Champions formats.

Chase Meidroth had a very impressive rookie debut in 2025. He played a very strong second base and shortstop while also showing a lot of promise at the dish. His contact ability is already some of the best in baseball, evidenced by his 21.9% O-Swing, 91.6% Z-Contact, and 4.3 SwStr%. His power will likely be non-existent given his 1.6% barrel rate and 53.3% groundball rate, but he will likely give you ~15 SB with a strong batting average as an everyday player. There is some value here but he really is best suited deeper league players.

After a poor 2025, Willi Castro seems like a strong bounceback candidate in 2026 as he heads to Colorado. We’ve seen solid fantasy seasons from him in the past and in a very hitter friendly environment where he should play everyday, Castro could return something like 15 HRs and 30 SBs as long as he stays healthy. Initially not someone I had a ton of interest in, I now see Castro as a pretty viable sleeper at a very dark position. As a bonus, you can also use him at third and in the outfield, two other very scarce positions in 2026

Brooks Lee has a fairly average profile overall. His power and contact rates are fairly average and he’s not a standout defender anywhere on the field. However, as the Twins continue to rebuild, Lee should stand to see 500+ plate appearances again in 2026. After 189 games played and more than 700 major league plate appearances with a 75 wRC+, it’s fair to question what Lee will turn into, but he’s being drafted outside of the Top 300 picks and brings 2B/3B/SS eligibility to the table. He’s a decent dart throw but keep expectations in check.

Playing for the Dodgers can be a huge boon to your fantasy value, and that’s why Tommy Edman comes in as high as he does on this list. In just 97 games, he managed 49 runs and 49 RBI, even with a career worst 81 wRC+. Edman is still just 30 and I’d expect him to start stealing again now that the ankle issues are in the rearview mirror. The upside here is a Top 7-10 option at the position if he is able to stay healthy. That’s a big if with Edman, but he’s priced to buy with an ADP beyond 300. 2/11 Update: Edman will miss the start of the season as he continues to recover from anle surgery. I’d still be willing to draft him if he falls quite dramatically in drafts, but it would have to be a substabtual discount given his track record over the past couple of years.

Kristian Campbell was a bit of a disaster in 2025. He looked great in April before faltering and being sent down to AAA where he spent the remainder of the year. The Red Sox have said that he’ll be primarily in the outfield this season and he’ll have a chance to earn a job out of spring training. We should be encouraged by the fact that Boston has already paid him, as it shows their confidence in the 23-year-old and also incentivizes them to play him. He’s not a specific target outside of deep formats, but there is a world where he breaks camp with the team and hits his way into the lineup on a regular basis.

Jonathan India was a total disaster last season. He failed to reach double digit homers and did not successfully steal one base. I’m encouraged by the fact that much of his profile remained the same from his time in Cincinnati and he will still have a regular role for the Royals in 2026. With an ADP of 370 and eligibility at 2B/3B/OF, India is a solid bounceback candidate on what should be an improved team.

At this stage of his career, we know exactly who Jake Cronenworth is. He’s going to hit 10-15 HRs, steal a handful of bases,and hit somewhere in the .230/.240 range. Considering he does after pick 400 in most drafts, that production is fine, but he doesn’t stand out in any category and will likely be hitting in the bottom third of the Padres’ order which will limit his counting stats.

Christian Moore struggled during his first cup of major league coffee in 2025, slashing .198/.284/.370 in 53 games. However, I find it encouraging that even with his struggles, he hit seven home runs in just 184 plate appearances. He has a very long way to go as a hitter but the Angels should give him a lot of rope as an everyday player considering the state of their team. Another player who is best suited for deep mixed/AL Only leagues.

Andres Gimenez has been steadily declining offensively ever since his breakout 2022 season. He hasn’t even been a league average bat in any year since and in 2026, he will be transitioning from second base to shortstop. I can see him stealing ~20 bases but that’s about it when it comes to his fantasy value. No power from a bottom of the order bat who can’t hit for avagere either is a recipe for fantasy disaster without drastic changes to his hitting profile.

An offseason trade has landed Gavin Lux with the Rays, where we are currently projecting him as the leadoff hitter on the strong side of the second base platoon. He was a serviceable bat in 2025, hitting .269 with a 102 wRC+ as a member of the Reds. While he’s not a massive target for me, getting a leadoff hitter (even a part-time one) behind pick 450 feels like a very safe investment to make

Hyeseong Kim didn’t really have the role many were expecting he would entering the 2025 season. He ended up with just 171 plate appearances and while he did hit three home runs and steal 13 bases while hitting .280, there wasn’t much fantasy managers could do besides hope he would get in the lineup more. The Tommy Edman injury has opened an opportunity for Kim to start the season as the everyday second baseman and potentially earn himself a full time role. His recent ADP is 486 and even with concerns about his plate skills and playing time, that’s more than a fair price to pay for a player who could wind up as a regular contributor to the best lineup in baseball.


Full Rankings Without Tiers

No tiers. Just the rankings.
Full Rankings Without Tiers
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
1 Ketel Marte ARI 2B 33 $18
2 Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY 2B/3B 22 $16
3 Brice Turang MIL 2B 56 $11
4 Nico Hoerner CHC 2B/SS 112 $11
5 Jose Altuve HOU 2B/OF 122 $11
6 Maikel Garcia KCR 2B/3B/SS/OF 72 $14
7 Ozzie Albies ATL 2B 162 $6
8 Jordan Westburg BAL 2B/3B 124 $13
9 Ceddanne Rafaela BOS 2B/OF 138 $11
10 Brandon Lowe PIT 2B 193 $1
11 Luke Keaschall MIN 2B 136 $5
12 Matt McLain CIN 2B/SS 186 $5
13 Jackson Holliday BAL 2B 140 $2
14 Jorge Polanco NYM 2B/3B 227 $4
15 Xavier Edwards MIA 2B/SS 188 $6
16 Marcus Semien NYM 2B 261 $5
17 Gleyber Torres DET 2B 254 $7
18 Brendan Donovan SEA 1B/2B/3B/OF 323 $0
19 Bryson Stott PHI 2B 186 $7
20 Luis García Jr. WAS 2B 231 $4
21 Brett Baty NYM 2B/3B 286 -$5
22 José Caballero NYY 2B/3B/SS 211 -$12
23 Lenyn Sosa CWS 1B/2B 429 -$11
24 Colt Keith DET 2B 487 -$4
25 Ernie Clement TOR 1B/2B/3B/SS 322 $6
26 Luis Arraez SF 1B/2B 290 $7
27 Otto Lopez MIA 2B/3B/SS 237 $5
28 Kody Clemens MIN 1B/2B/OF 731 -$22
29 Jeff McNeil ATH 2B/OF 690 $2
30 Chase Meidroth CWS 2B/SS 595 -$4
31 Willi Castro COL 2B/3B/SS/OF 295 $1
32 Brooks Lee MIN 2B/3B/SS 528 -$1
33 Tommy Edman LAD 2B/3B/OF 406 $1
34 Kristian Campbell BOS 2B/OF -$31
35 Jonathan India KCR 2B 673 -$7
36 Jake Cronenworth SDP 1B/2B/SS -$3
37 Christian Moore LAA 2B -$10
38 Andrés Giménez TOR 2B 467 $5
39 Gavin Lux TB 2B -$12
40 Hyesong Kim LAD 2B/SS/OF -$25

Chad Young’s RP Tiered Rankings for 4×4 Ottoneu

Cleveland Guardians pitcher Cade Smith (36) throws in the ninth inning against the Detroit Tigers during game three of the Wildcard round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Progressive Field.
Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

We flipped the script this week, with Jake Mailhot posting his FanGraphs Points reliever ranks before I posted my 4×4 ranks, but I still wanted to provide my ranks. I am also going to make this article – the last of the ranks before the keeper deadline this weekend! – pull double duty. In addition to my 4×4 tiers, I am going to share my thoughts on Points and 5×5 leagues, as well as head-to-head, rather than doing a full follow-up article. All the same great taste now packed into a single bite.

Read the rest of this entry »


Third Base 2026 Fantasy Rankings

Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Changelog

  • 2/9/2026 – Light reranking, a couple more capsules, some team changes
  • 2/2/2026 – Some reranking based on Suárez signing with the Reds, a few more capsules
  • 1/23/2026 – Moved Arenado to a tier now that we know where he’s playing, some team changes, updated ADPs
  • 1/13/2026 – Updated ADPs, more capsules, reranking with Alex Bregman signing (and some other minor FA deals)
  • 12/31/2025 – Updated ADPs, more capsules, and some reranking.
  • 12/24/2025 – Updated ADPs — rerank and more capsules coming between Christmas and New Year’s!
  • 12/16/2025 – First Release

Ranking Methodology

  • ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
  • $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
  • ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
  • 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net.

Hello, and welcome to the 2026 3B rankings! Third base has been a weird position for a while, one that fits a bunch of different types of players; there’s no one archetype that works above all the others. That makes ranking them a little tough, but hey, at least Nos. 1 and 2 were layups (that’s a basketball term). For now, we’ve just got write-ups on the top quartet of third basemen, with plenty more to follow.

One quick note regarding the bottom tier, those in Free Agent Limbo: I don’t actually think those are the least-valuable fantasy third basemen. What I do think is that their value is dependent on where they sign. Will they sign as a regular? A platoon bat? Will they even maintain 3B eligibility?

Hot Ones at the Hot Corner

The best of the best.
Hot Ones at the Hot Corner
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
1 José Ramírez CLE 3B 6 $30
2 Junior Caminero TBR 3B 15 $30
3 Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY 2B/3B 21 $15
4 Maikel Garcia KCR 2B/3B/SS/OF 78 $15

There’s little that Ramírez is yet to accomplish in MLB, though winning MVP might forever be his white whale. (He’d also love to go 40/40 at least once, I’m sure.) His counting stats at the plate took a little bit of a step back as he had even more wear and tear than usual in 2025, but he’s showing no long-term signs of slowing down and continues to command the zone while not striking out as well as anyone.

At the onset of the 2025 season it looked like Caminero would be missing some valuable plate appearances as he was frequently replaced for defense, but he improved enough at third to actually play full games with the Rays leading as the season went on. The massive homer power is Caminero’s calling card and considering his precocious youth combined with a lack of big swing-and-miss, the sky is the limit. He was weirdly average away from Steinbrenner Field but I don’t have much concern there since his BABIP was a ridiculously low .197 on the road.

Enjoy the 3B eligibility while you can! Jazz won’t be sniffing the hot corner any time soon after couping DJ LeMahieu out of a roster spot so he could move back to second base, and he responded with a career year despite missing time with an oblique strain. Coming off back-to-back almost-fully-healthy seasons in which he proved he’s got star output to go with his star-level skills, here’s hoping we can finally see what 150 games of Jazz looks like.

Are Garcia’s gains at the plate legit? The Royals sure think so, rewarding his breakout with a five-year, $57.5 million extension. He’s got almost three years of service time but is still just 25 years old, so it’s entirely possible we haven’t seen the best of him yet. He’s more of a “jack of all trades, master of none” than a guy who will give you insane production in a particular category, but there’s .300/20/40 potential in there.

Slightly Less Hot

Great players who just missed.
Slightly Less Hot
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
5 Manny Machado SDP 3B 44 $16
6 Austin Riley ATL 3B 78 $17
7 Eugenio Suárez CIN 3B 136 $13
8 Isaac Paredes HOU 3B 221 -$4
9 Max Muncy LAD 3B 272 -$4
10 Alex Bregman CHC 3B 125 $9
11 Jordan Westburg BAL 2B/3B 128 $11

The very definition of borderline between the top tier and second tier, Machado continues to perform like a metronome. The only thing that concerns me is Father Time’s undefeated record, and Machado is entering his age-33 season. His bat speed is still excellent but it has been going down each year for the three years it’s been tracked by Statcast, so it’s not as if he’s completely ageless.

I want Riley to go back to being great, and I’ll concede that it’s entirely possible if not likely that injuries are part of the explanation for his wRC+ declining each year since his career-high in 2022. But we can’t just ignore that in 2025 he walked less and whiffed and struck out more. This is about as high as I’m comfortable putting him.

Suárez could not have signed with a better team. He’s familiar with the Reds, he’ll need fewer days off as a DH, and most importantly for fantasy, he’ll absolutely mash at GABP. He couldn’t figure out the Park Formerly Known As Safeco across his two stints in Seattle, and there was a worry in the back of my mind that he’d end up back there anyway. He’ll feature prominently in a Reds lineup that was starved for power all last year with Elly De La Cruz battling a quad injury throughout the second half.

Paredes would be higher on this list if I was fully confident that he’s (a) fully healthy after rushing back from a horrible hamstring strain and (b) definitely an Astro in 2026. So much of Paredes’ value comes from his elite ability to pull the ball in the air, and there’s nowhere better to do that than Daikin Park. But with the Astros probably needing to offload an infielder to open up DH for Yordan Alvarez and Paredes’ name being the most-often mentioned, I’m just wary enough to ding him a bit.

Muncy has been as good as ever on a rate basis in the last two seasons, but I’m conscious of his age (35) and the fact that he’s only played 173 games in the last two seasons. Plus, he had his worst showing ever against lefties, albeit in only 80 plate appearances, and he could continue to be shielded from them by Miguel Rojas and Alex Call.

I moved Bregman down just a tad because Wrigley isn’t an amazing ballpark fit for him. He’s not as dead-pull as Paredes (nobody is) but he still relies on pulling the ball in the air. Wrigley’s dimensions themselves aren’t a huge needle-mover for me; yes, left field is deep, but Bregman has the pop to hit homers there. The bigger concern is the wind, which will knock down would-be homers for even the most prolific of power hitters — something Bregman isn’t.

This is a pretty aggressive placement for a guy who’s yet to be fully healthy for a season, I’ll admit. But he’s been rock solid when he’s been able to play in 2024 and 2025, and his expected metrics in 2024 — slugging especially — were so good that I think there’s another level in there.

2025 Breakouts

If they continue in 2026, they’ll be fantasy stars.
2025 Breakouts
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
12 Addison Barger TOR 3B/OF 217 -$1
13 Colson Montgomery CHW 3B/SS 238 $2

With Kazuma Okamoto in the fold, Barger’s going to be spending more time in right field than at third base, so enjoy that 3B eligibility while you can in 2026! The power has always been real, but getting to it in MLB games was a problem in 2024. No longer was that the case in 2025: Barger mashed 21 homers in 135 games followed by another three in 17 postseason games. With a fantastic hard-hit rate above 50%, I’m taking the over on 24 homers if he can get into 152 games this year. The biggest impediment to that will be solving lefties, against whom he had a wRC+ of 69 in 89 plate appearances.

Montgomery burst onto the scene in his rookie half-season last year, with 21 homers and 55 RBI in just 71 games. If you’re a fan of extrapolating stats out to 162 games and dreaming from there, that’s 48 homers and 125 RBI. No, I don’t think he’ll reach those heights in 2026, as his HR/FB was a ridiculous 26% and his hard-hit rate was a very good but not elite 44%. But he’ll be playing every single day at short (again, enjoy that 3B eligibility while it’s there!), and unimpeded playing time is important.

Steady Vets

You basically know what you’re getting here.
Steady Vets
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
14 Matt Chapman SFG 3B 167 $12
15 Alec Bohm PHI 1B/3B 269 $7
16 Carlos Correa HOU 3B/SS 272 $1

He’s streaky within seasons, but you ultimately know what you’re gonna get at the end of the year from Chapman: solidly above-average output and 20+ homers. His hand injury led to a career-low in games but he still got into 128 of them, and it didn’t seem to impact his hitting ability upon his return, unlike many hand injuries. In his age-33 season, we’ve got to be careful when considering the aging curve for Chapman, but he actually cut down the strikeouts in 2025 while continuing to walk a ton. I don’t see big concern here yet, the guy’s a grinder.

Well, Bohm is certainly a Steady Vet, just steady at a lower output than you’d like. But the ballpark he plays in and the lineup around him means he’ll rack up RBI in all likelihood, and his 2025 hard hit rate was his best since 2021. Does that portend better power output or just more frustration?

He’s in this tier because I wanted to rank him right about here, not because he’s actually particularly steady. Correa hasn’t been both healthy and very good at the plate since 2022. 2023 was healthy but below-average, 2024 was excellent over 86 games, and 2025 was 144 games of a 106 wRC+. Maybe a full season at third will keep him a little healthier, and Houston is certainly a better place to hit than Minnesota, but you just don’t know what you’re going to get from him. His mere presence on the roster also means Isaac Paredes may be playing elsewhere this year.

NPB “Rookies”

How they convert to MLB remains to be seen, but there’s plenty of upside here.
NPB “Rookies”
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
17 Munetaka Murakami CHW 1B/3B $8
18 Kazuma Okamoto TOR 1B/3B $6

Murakami could hit 40 homers; he could hit 15. He could strike out a manageable 30% of the time; he could strike out an untenable 40%. There’s no player in the league, at any position, with as much boom-or-bust potential, and I think I’ve ranked him accordingly. Whatever you get from him — good or bad — don’t be surprised.

Okamoto doesn’t posess the upside that Murakami has (almost nobody on the planet does!) but he’s a much safer bet to produce for the Jays than Murakami is for the White Sox. That’s why he signed for $60 million with a contender and Murakami got just $34 million from the White Sox. Okamoto may have to earn time against tough righties but is widely expected to mash lefties, and his versaility — he should get some time at first base and maybe left field, too — will keep him in the lineup along with the bat.

You Should Be Better Than This!

A guy who hits the ball hard but haven’t put it all together yet.
You Should Be Better Than This!
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
19 Royce Lewis MIN 3B 191 $6

Multipositional Studs

Good performance, better multipositional flex.
Multipositional Studs
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
20 Caleb Durbin BOS 2B/3B 232 $7
21 Ernie Clement TOR 1B/2B/3B/SS ▲1 288 $5
22 Tommy Edman LAD 2B/3B/OF ▼1 310 $1
23 Brett Baty NYM 2B/3B 277 -$7
24 Zach McKinstry DET 2B/3B/SS/OF 343 -$10
25 Colt Keith DET 1B/2B/3B 313 -$5
26 Josh Smith TEX 1B/3B/SS/OF 341 -$8
27 Gavin Lux TBR 2B/3B/OF 477 -$14
28 José Caballero NYY 2B/3B/SS/OF 225 -$12
29 Miguel Andujar SDP 3B/OF ▲46 498 -$2

What Even Are You?

These guys have shown flashes, maybe even lots of them, in recent years, but they’re all so inconsistent.
What Even Are You?
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
30 Nolan Arenado ARI 3B ▼1 393 $1
31 Connor Norby MIA 3B ▼1 360 -$3
32 Josh Jung TEX 3B ▼1 335 -$1
33 Nolan Gorman STL 1B/2B/3B ▼1 428 -$4
34 Mark Vientos NYM 3B ▼1 322 -$4
35 Luis Rengifo FA 2B/3B/OF ▼1 458 -$15
36 Miguel Vargas CHW 1B/3B ▼1 274 $1
37 Yoán Moncada LAA 3B ▼1 512 -$11
38 Ryan McMahon NYY 3B ▼1 413 -$11
39 Noelvi Marte CIN 3B/OF ▼1 142 $5
40 Willi Castro COL 2B/3B/SS/OF ▼1 289 $1
41 Ke’Bryan Hayes CIN 3B ▼1 473 -$7
42 Javier Báez DET 2B/3B/SS/OF ▼1 478 -$15
43 Jonathan India KCR 2B/3B/OF ▼1 371 -$9

Moved him down a ton because his playing time is almost completely blocked as long as he’s a Met

Unproven Youngsters

This collection has shown a little bit in relatively limited MLB time.
Unproven Youngsters
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
44 Marcelo Mayer BOS 2B/3B ▼1 362 -$7
45 Blaze Alexander ARI 2B/3B/OF ▼1 541 -$22
46 Gabriel Arias CLE 2B/3B/SS ▼1 473 -$11
47 Casey Schmitt SFG 1B/2B/3B ▼1 498 -$25
48 Matt Shaw CHC 3B ▼1 260 -$22
50 Alex Freeland LAD 2B/3B ▼2 700 -$27
51 Ben Williamson TBR 3B ▼2 713 -$25

Will They Even Be on the Roster?

There’s potential here, but also potential to start in Triple-A.
Will They Even Be on the Roster?
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
60 Kyle Karros COL 3B ▼2 649 -$23
61 Nacho Alvarez Jr. ATL 3B ▼2 728 -$35
62 Brooks Lee MIN 2B/3B/SS ▼2 325 -$1
63 Ronny Mauricio NYM 2B/3B/SS ▼2 566 -$26
64 Brady House WSN 3B ▼2 479 -$5

Less Interesting Bench Guys

Versatility here, but not a whole lot else.
Less Interesting Bench Guys
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
65 Jared Triolo PIT 1B/2B/3B/SS ▲2 406 -$3
66 Daniel Schneemann CLE 2B/3B/SS/OF ▼3 649 -$25
67 Max Muncy ATH 3B ▼3 489 -$16
68 Graham Pauley MIA 1B/2B/3B ▼3 580 -$22
69 Curtis Mead CHW 1B/2B/3B ▼3 683 -$35
70 Andy Ibáñez ATH 2B/3B ▼2 748 -$23

How Deep Is Your League?

How Deep Is Your League?
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
71 Oswald Peraza LAA 1B/2B/3B/SS ▼2 721 -$23
72 Jace Jung DET 3B ▼2 -$33
73 José Tena WSN 2B/3B ▼2 751 -$22
74 Josh Rojas KCR 2B/3B/OF ▼2 -$37
75 Darell Hernaiz ATH 2B/3B/SS ▼2 676 -$27
76 Paul DeJong NYY 2B/3B/SS ▼2 745 -$32

Good Bench Guys

They won’t play too much, but production will be good when they do.
Good Bench Guys
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
49 Jordan Lawlar ARI 2B/3B ▲7 377 -$16
52 Mauricio Dubón ATL 2B/3B/SS/OF ▼2 453 -$16
53 Edmundo Sosa PHI 2B/3B/SS ▼2 575 -$22
54 Amed Rosario NYY 2B/3B/OF ▼2 666 -$24
55 Otto Kemp PHI 1B/3B/OF ▼2 641 -$22
56 Miguel Rojas LAD 2B/3B/SS ▼2 643 -$22
57 Oswaldo Cabrera NYY 3B ▼2 751 -$27
58 Javier Sanoja MIA 2B/3B/SS/OF ▼1 524 -$22
59 Isiah Kiner-Falefa BOS 2B/3B/SS ▲17 590 -$22

Free Agent Limbo

Where these players will rank depends on where they sign and what playing time is available to them.
Free Agent Limbo
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
77 Ramón Urías FA 2B/3B 726 -$22
78 Santiago Espinal FA 2B/3B/OF -$29
79 Jon Berti FA 2B/3B -$25
80 Gio Urshela FA 3B -$28
81 Enrique Hernández FA 1B/2B/3B/OF 741 -$22

Full Rankings Without Tiers

No tiers. Just the rankings.
Full Rankings Without Tiers
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
1 José Ramírez CLE 3B 6 $30
2 Junior Caminero TBR 3B 15 $30
3 Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY 2B/3B 21 $15
4 Maikel Garcia KCR 2B/3B/SS/OF 78 $15
5 Manny Machado SDP 3B 44 $16
6 Austin Riley ATL 3B 78 $17
7 Eugenio Suárez CIN 3B 136 $13
8 Isaac Paredes HOU 3B 221 -$4
9 Max Muncy LAD 3B 272 -$4
10 Alex Bregman CHC 3B 125 $9
11 Jordan Westburg BAL 2B/3B 128 $11
12 Addison Barger TOR 3B/OF 217 -$1
13 Colson Montgomery CHW 3B/SS 238 $2
14 Matt Chapman SFG 3B 167 $12
15 Alec Bohm PHI 1B/3B 269 $7
16 Carlos Correa HOU 3B/SS 272 $1
17 Munetaka Murakami CHW 1B/3B $8
18 Kazuma Okamoto TOR 1B/3B $6
19 Royce Lewis MIN 3B 191 $6
20 Caleb Durbin BOS 2B/3B 232 $7
21 Ernie Clement TOR 1B/2B/3B/SS ▲1 288 $5
22 Tommy Edman LAD 2B/3B/OF ▼1 310 $1
23 Brett Baty NYM 2B/3B 277 -$7
24 Zach McKinstry DET 2B/3B/SS/OF 343 -$10
25 Colt Keith DET 1B/2B/3B 313 -$5
26 Josh Smith TEX 1B/3B/SS/OF 341 -$8
27 Gavin Lux TBR 2B/3B/OF 477 -$14
28 José Caballero NYY 2B/3B/SS/OF 225 -$12
29 Miguel Andujar SDP 3B/OF ▲46 498 -$2
30 Nolan Arenado ARI 3B ▼1 393 $1
31 Connor Norby MIA 3B ▼1 360 -$3
32 Josh Jung TEX 3B ▼1 335 -$1
33 Nolan Gorman STL 1B/2B/3B ▼1 428 -$4
34 Mark Vientos NYM 3B ▼1 322 -$4
35 Luis Rengifo FA 2B/3B/OF ▼1 458 -$15
36 Miguel Vargas CHW 1B/3B ▼1 274 $1
37 Yoán Moncada LAA 3B ▼1 512 -$11
38 Ryan McMahon NYY 3B ▼1 413 -$11
39 Noelvi Marte CIN 3B/OF ▼1 142 $5
40 Willi Castro COL 2B/3B/SS/OF ▼1 289 $1
41 Ke’Bryan Hayes CIN 3B ▼1 473 -$7
42 Javier Báez DET 2B/3B/SS/OF ▼1 478 -$15
43 Jonathan India KCR 2B/3B/OF ▼1 371 -$9
44 Marcelo Mayer BOS 2B/3B ▼1 362 -$7
45 Blaze Alexander ARI 2B/3B/OF ▼1 541 -$22
46 Gabriel Arias CLE 2B/3B/SS ▼1 473 -$11
47 Casey Schmitt SFG 1B/2B/3B ▼1 498 -$25
48 Matt Shaw CHC 3B ▼1 260 -$22
49 Jordan Lawlar ARI 2B/3B ▲7 377 -$16
50 Alex Freeland LAD 2B/3B ▼2 700 -$27
51 Ben Williamson TBR 3B ▼2 713 -$25
52 Mauricio Dubón ATL 2B/3B/SS/OF ▼2 453 -$16
53 Edmundo Sosa PHI 2B/3B/SS ▼2 575 -$22
54 Amed Rosario NYY 2B/3B/OF ▼2 666 -$24
55 Otto Kemp PHI 1B/3B/OF ▼2 641 -$22
56 Miguel Rojas LAD 2B/3B/SS ▼2 643 -$22
57 Oswaldo Cabrera NYY 3B ▼2 751 -$27
58 Javier Sanoja MIA 2B/3B/SS/OF ▼1 524 -$22
59 Isiah Kiner-Falefa BOS 2B/3B/SS ▲17 590 -$22
60 Kyle Karros COL 3B ▼2 649 -$23
61 Nacho Alvarez Jr. ATL 3B ▼2 728 -$35
62 Brooks Lee MIN 2B/3B/SS ▼2 325 -$1
63 Ronny Mauricio NYM 2B/3B/SS ▼2 566 -$26
64 Brady House WSN 3B ▼2 479 -$5
65 Jared Triolo PIT 1B/2B/3B/SS ▲2 406 -$3
66 Daniel Schneemann CLE 2B/3B/SS/OF ▼3 649 -$25
67 Max Muncy ATH 3B ▼3 489 -$16
68 Graham Pauley MIA 1B/2B/3B ▼3 580 -$22
69 Curtis Mead CHW 1B/2B/3B ▼3 683 -$35
70 Andy Ibáñez ATH 2B/3B ▼2 748 -$23
71 Oswald Peraza LAA 1B/2B/3B/SS ▼2 721 -$23
72 Jace Jung DET 3B ▼2 -$33
73 José Tena WSN 2B/3B ▼2 751 -$22
74 Josh Rojas KCR 2B/3B/OF ▼2 -$37
75 Darell Hernaiz ATH 2B/3B/SS ▼2 676 -$27
76 Paul DeJong NYY 2B/3B/SS ▼2 745 -$32
77 Ramón Urías FA 2B/3B 726 -$22
78 Santiago Espinal FA 2B/3B/OF -$29
79 Jon Berti FA 2B/3B -$25
80 Gio Urshela FA 3B -$28
81 Enrique Hernández FA 1B/2B/3B/OF 741 -$22

Catcher 2026 Fantasy Rankings

Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Changelog

  • 12/15/2025 – First Release
  • 1/8/2026 – Dalton Rushing and Sean Murphy updates
  • 1/26/2026 – J.T Realmuto and Victor Caratini signings.
  • 2/2/2026 – Projections and ADP update.
  • 2/10/2026 – ADP update.

Ranking Methodology

  • ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
  • $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
  • ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
  • 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net.

Catcher Overview

The catcher position is about as deep as it’s been after an influx of young talent to the position over the last few seasons. The additions of young studs to the crop of older, aging veterans give the position some beef, but also add to it’s volatility as we have seen with a number of the players who entered the Majors over previous seasons have shown us.

The biggest issue with the position is dependent on the format you are drafting for. In shallower one catcher leagues, it’s often best to wait as long as possible unless a player you covet drops. In deeper two catcher formats, the back end the pool offers negative value giving you more reasons to draft one or both of your catchers early. Knowing how your format and league values the position is crucial to your draft strategy.

Today’s Discussion

No news is good news, but we update the projections and ADP anyhow. Pitchers and catcher report soon, so we should get bigger updates coming soon!

The Franchise

The top guy at the position stands alone
The Franchise
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
1 Cal Raleigh SEA C/DH 19 $31

Cal Raleigh is coming off of an historic season where he hit the most home runs ever by a catcher and was the #2 player on the player rater. There is no where to go but down but even with regression, he should be the first catcher off the board. He is a great bet for power and counting categories, but the contact skills gives him an average floor is much lower than what we saw in 2025.

Cornerstone Backstops

A ton of high upside talent and Sal Perez!
Cornerstone Backstops
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
2 William Contreras MIL C/DH 55 $22
3 Shea Langeliers OAK C 57 $21
4 Ben Rice NYY C/1B/DH 51 $19
5 Agustin Ramirez MIA C 82 $11
6 Drake Baldwin ATL C 93 $16
7 Hunter Goodman COL C/DH 67 $23
8 Salvador Perez KC C/1B/DH 94 $19

A year after his breakout season, William Contreras took a step back, hitting just .260/.355/.399 with 17 home runs and six stolen bases. Some of that regression was likely injury related as he played through a finger fracture that is now been fixed through surgery. He should rebound now that he is healthy and return to being an elite option.

Shea Langeliers has made massive gains in each of the last two seasons in contact skills going from 78% to 83% to 85% while not sacrificing power or his approach. Hitting in Sacramento is a dream location for him and the A’s should continue to improve.

You can make the argument that Ben Rice should be the #2 catcher in fantasy since he isn’t actually catching this season. He could have the most plate appearances for a cather-eligible player if the Yankees do not bring in anyone to compete with him. His combination of power and contact skills along with the home park could make for a massive season.

Agustin Ramirez showed a better hit tool than expected and the power was as advertised. We can’t sleep on the speed, either, as he went a very solid 16-for-19 on the basepaths. He is not a very good catcher defensively and likely will lose eligibility there at some point, but that is a problem for future seasons. He will get extra PAs at DH which will allow him to rack up plate appearances, but the Marlins supporting cast is meager which will hurt the runs and RBIs.

Drake Baldwin is coming off of winning Rookie of the Year in the National League and there is more upside in the bat. He showcased his great approach and contact skills, but with a launch angle tweak, he could have a massive breakout. His bat speed, average exit velocity, and hard hit percentage were all in the top 85 percentile so if he could elevate some, he could push his homers in the mid twenties which would be some nice upside for a high floor catcher.

Hunter Goodman has elite power but the approach and swing and miss can be a problem for him. Hitting in Colorado will help because of the BABIP inflation and the lack of competition for the role, but the batting average downside is real and he will regress there in 2026.

Being the old man of the group isn’t a bad thing. Salvador Perez is about as consistent as can be. He has back-to-back healthy season with at least 27 home runs and 100 RBIs. The ceiling may not be as high as the rest of the tier, but you don’t get much safer than Sal.

Last Year’s Favorites

Last year’s draft favorites that could jump up a tier!
Last Year’s Favorites
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
9 Yainer Diaz HOU C/1B/DH 113 $14
10 Adley Rutschman BAL C/DH 159 $13
11 Will Smith LAD C 108 $13

When Yainer Diaz hit 23 home runs in just 377 plate appearances in 2023, people thought a full season breakout was coming, but in the last two seasons he has shown that power output was likely an outlier. He still has a high floor because of his fantastic contact ability, but the ceiling dropping a bit is why he is no longer in higher tiers.

Adley Rutschman lost a lot of time last year to injury and really struggled when he was on the field. If healthy, then he is likely to rebound to the levels we saw in 2023 and 2024 at least. There is still upside in the bat from his prospect pedigree and initial call up, but we can no longer project he will automatically get there.

Will Smith is about as safe as they come. You can can bank on high teens/low 20s home runs with a good average and great counting stats hitting in the top half of the Dodgers lineup. He actually had the second best barrel rate and hard hit percentages of his career, but it didn’t translate into more power. The downside is that he will never accumulate like other catchers because Ohtani blocks off the designated hitter spot.

Safe Backstops

Guys that do not have a ton of upside, but arent going to hurt you
Safe Backstops
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
12 Ivan Herrera STL C/DH 171 $21
13 Alejandro Kirk TOR C 154 $9
14 Gabriel Moreno ARI C 170 $8

Ivan Herrera won’t even be catcher eligible in most formats because he missed so much time with an elbow injury. He is expected to catch some, but will likely reside mostly at DH. The lack of pop limits his ceiling, but there is nice floor as long as he is healthy and he should be able to accumulate a lot of plate appearances at DH.

Alejandro Kirk makes a lot of contact and there is some power in the bat, but that makes it a high floor profile rather than one that is super enticing for shallower one catcher formats.

When Gabriel Moreno hit four home runs in the 2023 postseason people got really excited that a massive breakout was coming. That was a mistake, but he is a great defensive catcher with a very good hit tool. He did show a bit more pop with a career-high .433 SLG and 9 HRs, but his .281 AVG points to his high floor as even his career-low .266 from 2023 was tied for 5th-highest at Catcher (min. 350 PA).

Why Is This Position Like This?

Talent with red flags
Why Is This Position Like This?
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
15 Samuel Basallo BAL C/DH 178 $8
16 Francisco Alvarez NYM C 173 $8
17 Austin Wells NYY C 228 $6
18 J.T. Realmuto PHI C 208 $8
19 Ryan Jeffers MIN C/DH 249 $7

Samuel Basallo is a top tier prospect that made his debut in 2025. There is a ton of power in the bat and the question is whether he will make enough contact to unlock at the Major League level. the minor league numbers say he should, but there may be some growing pains, but the upside is tremendous. With the addition of Pete Alonso, he will need to hit to keep his spot, but I believe he will.

Francisco Alvarez has been great when he is on the field, but he has struggled with that since 2023. If he can stay healthy, there is 25-30 homer power. There are few catchers that have his power profile at the position, but he is best served for shallower formats where there is replacement value on the wire.

Austin Wells is built for Yankees Stadium where he can pull the ball in the air to the short porch. He makes better in-zone contact than his average suggests, so there is a chance that he could begin to make gains there, but I wouldn’t project that.

I love J.T. Realmuto, but the skills have been degrading for a while. That being said, ending back in Philly was the best case scenario for him. There is still a safe floor up the ceiling is lowering quickly.

Deep League Intrigue

Most useful for 2-Catcher leagues but have the talent to jump up a tier or two
Deep League Intrigue
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
20 Tyler Stephenson CIN C/DH 248 $1
21 Logan O’Hoppe LAA C 241 $3
22 Carter Jensen KC C $1
23 Dillion Dingler DET C 223 $2
24 Kyle Teel CHW C 183 $4
25 Carson Kelly CHC C 328 -$3
26 Sean Murphy ATL C 406 -$3
27 Harry Ford WAS C 405 -$11

If Tyler Stephenson had not missed so much time with injury, his line would have looked a lot more similar to his good 2024 season as opposed to his paltry 2023 one. However, his contact skills took a hit with his swinging strike rate rising and his Z-Contact dropping to its lowest mark of his career. He should bounceback some if healthy, but there are red flags here.

Carter Jensen is a top 50 prospect that debuted in 2025 and looked the part in a very small sample. The problem is playing time. With Sal Perez locked in behind the plate and a number of players that will be rotating at DH in Kansas City, it’s hard to find 400 plate appearance for the rookie. If he can find those plate appearances, then there is some upside for a guy that went 20/10 with a .290/.377/.501 line at AAA last season.

Kyle Teel is a former top prospect, but he is more of a real life asset that a fantasy one. His power profile projects him to be more of a teens homer guy and there isn’t a great hit tool in the profile either. He will accumulate some, but he will also be sharing the position.

Sean Murphy has fallen off since coming to Atlanta and he likely isn’t regaining his pre-Braves form, but maybe if he gets a change of scenery via trade, he could become closer to the guy we saw in Oakland. There is a chance he misses time at the beginning of the season due to offseason hip surgery which is the reason for the drop. If we get a better timeline, he could move further down or back up.

Harry Ford is a top 50 prospect who debuted in 2025, but was only given eight plate appearances in a small cup of coffee in the Majors. The 22-year-old was fantastic in AAA in 2025, hitting .283/.408/.460 with 16 home runs and seven stolen bases in 458 plate appearances. He was moved this offseason to Washington where he could find himself on the opening day roster, sharing duties with Ruiz. There is some decent upside, but his power is still developing some.

Passed Balls

Probably best served for the deepest of leagues.
Passed Balls
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
28 Freddy Fermin SD C/DH 394 $0
29 Keibert Ruiz WAS C/DH 401 -$7
30 Edgar Quero CHW C 318 -$1
31 Bo Naylor CLE C 323 $2
32 Victor Caratini MIN C/1B 366 -$2
33 Carlos Narvaez BOS C 291 -$3
34 Patrick Bailey SF C 439 $0

There isn’t a lot of upside in Freddy Fermin’s bat, but he has shown he can be a high floor accumulator when given playing time and now that he has escaped Sal Perez’s shadow and moved onto sunny San Diego, he should just get that.

Injuries derailed Keibert Ruiz’s season in 2025 and now there is competition for the role with Ford being acquired via trade this offseason. There wasn’t a ton of upside before and now there is a lower floor if he cannot accumulate as easily.

Edgar Quero is a former top 100 prospect, but he shares the role with Teel and is not as good of a defender. There isn’t much of a carrying tool for fantasy in the profile so he needs to get a lot of plate appearances in order to accumulate.

I understand why some people love Bo Naylor. While a good pop-good approach-no hit tool profile is not usually a problem in fantasy, but when you are on a team that loves Austin Hedges for his defense so much that you get stuck under 415 plate appearances, then the low ceiling/low floor combo isn’t as enticing.

Victor Caratini signed a deal to be the backup catcher in Minnesota. He will pick up added plate appearances at DH as well making him an interesting deep league third catcher or even a low end C2.

Patrick Bailey is a premium defender behind the plate, but the offensive skills have never caught up to the defense. However, he will accumulate because he does not miss any games.

Emergency Catchers

Useful in draft and hold formats
Emergency Catchers
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
35 Dalton Rushing LAD C 442 -$12
36 Nick Fortes TBR C 589 -$8
37 Jonah Heim FA C/DH 567 -$15
38 Miguel Amaya CHC C 446 -$8
39 Joey Bart PIT C/DH 467 -$6
40 Danny Jansen TEX C 441 -$5

Dalton Rushing has talent, but he needs a trade more than anyone in baseball and recent rumors are that the Dodgers could move him. If he does get moved, he would shoot up the ranks further.

Jonah Heim’s value will be dependent on where he signs.

Danny Jansen has never lived up to the early career hype, but he will play and can accumulate for deeper formats as long as he’s healthy.

Bullpen Catchers

The Rest
Bullpen Catchers
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
41 Pedro Pages STL C 513 -$7
42 Rafael Marchan PHI C 745 -$18
43 Liam Hicks MIA C/1B 502 -$10
44 Connor Wong BOS C/1B/DH 641 -$12
45 Joe Mack MIA C -$10
46 Mitch Garver SEA C/DH 715 -$14
47 Kyle Higashioka TEX C 461 -$8
48 Henry Davis PIT C 564 -$11
49 Jeferson Quero MIL C 570 -$22
50 Korey Lee CHW C -$19

Joe Mack is a top 50 prospect that has power and is fantastic behind the plate. However, he really struggles with contact. His defense should prevent him from becoming a AAAA player, but there is a chance he spends the entire season in AAA trying to improve his hit tool.

Jeferson Quero is one of the Brewers top prospects and will be ready for the Majors at some point this season, but with Contreras in tow, I don’t know if there will be enough plate appearances to matter in 2026.


Full Rankings Without Tiers

No tiers. Just the rankings.
Full Rankings Without Tiers
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
1 Cal Raleigh SEA C/DH 19 $31
2 William Contreras MIL C/DH 55 $22
3 Shea Langeliers OAK C 57 $21
4 Ben Rice NYY C/1B/DH 51 $19
5 Agustin Ramirez MIA C 82 $11
6 Drake Baldwin ATL C 93 $16
7 Hunter Goodman COL C/DH 67 $23
8 Salvador Perez KC C/1B/DH 94 $19
9 Yainer Diaz HOU C/1B/DH 113 $14
10 Adley Rutschman BAL C/DH 159 $13
11 Will Smith LAD C 108 $13
12 Ivan Herrera STL C/DH 171 $21
13 Alejandro Kirk TOR C 154 $9
14 Gabriel Moreno ARI C 170 $8
15 Samuel Basallo BAL C/DH 178 $8
16 Francisco Alvarez NYM C 173 $8
17 Austin Wells NYY C 228 $6
18 J.T. Realmuto PHI C 208 $8
19 Ryan Jeffers MIN C/DH 249 $7
20 Tyler Stephenson CIN C/DH 248 $1
21 Logan O’Hoppe LAA C 241 $3
22 Carter Jensen KC C $1
23 Dillion Dingler DET C 223 $2
24 Kyle Teel CHW C 183 $4
25 Carson Kelly CHC C 328 -$3
26 Sean Murphy ATL C 406 -$3
27 Harry Ford WAS C 405 -$11
28 Freddy Fermin SD C/DH 394 $0
29 Keibert Ruiz WAS C/DH 401 -$7
30 Edgar Quero CHW C 318 -$1
31 Bo Naylor CLE C 323 $2
32 Victor Caratini MIN C/1B 366 -$2
33 Carlos Narvaez BOS C 291 -$3
34 Patrick Bailey SF C 439 $0
35 Dalton Rushing LAD C 442 -$12
36 Nick Fortes TBR C 589 -$8
37 Jonah Heim FA C/DH 567 -$15
38 Miguel Amaya CHC C 446 -$8
39 Joey Bart PIT C/DH 467 -$6
40 Danny Jansen TEX C 441 -$5
41 Pedro Pages STL C 513 -$7
42 Rafael Marchan PHI C 745 -$18
43 Liam Hicks MIA C/1B 502 -$10
44 Connor Wong BOS C/1B/DH 641 -$12
45 Joe Mack MIA C -$10
46 Mitch Garver SEA C/DH 715 -$14
47 Kyle Higashioka TEX C 461 -$8
48 Henry Davis PIT C 564 -$11
49 Jeferson Quero MIL C 570 -$22
50 Korey Lee CHW C -$19

Shortstop 2026 Fantasy Rankings

Sep 24, 2025; West Sacramento, California, USA; Athletics shortstop Jacob Wilson (5) jogs towards the dugout before the start of the game against the Houston Astros at Sutter Health Park. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

Changelog

  • 12/22/2025 – First Release
  • 1/12/2026 – Projections update
  • 1/26/2026 – Bo Bichette signing
  • 2/1/2025 – Ha-Seong Kim injury, Projections update

Ranking Methodology

  • ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
  • $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
  • ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
  • 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net.

Shortstop Overview

The shortstop position is once again the deepest position in fantasy from top to bottom. There is a great mix of talent from old, reliable vets to young up and comers. However, a lot of the position has eligibility at other spots and there are big drop offs through out.

Today’s Discussion

Ha-Seong Kim gets hurt again.

Short(stop) King

The top guy at the position stands alone
Short(stop) King
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
1 Bobby Witt Jr. KC SS 3 $35

Bobby Witt Jr. was fantastic, but just didn’t hit for quite the power he did in 2024 and 2023. However, some of that can be chalked up to the injuries he played through. In spite of that, he still got to 687 plate appearances and stole 38 bases. If he is back to being full healthy, there is no reason to think that he cannot only be the top SS but challenge for the top player in fantasy not named Shohei.

Five Category Wizards

Top tier talent worth reaching for at shortstop.
Five Category Wizards
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
2 Elly De La Cruz CIN SS 10 $28
3 Gunnar Henderson BAL SS 14 $27
4 Francisco Lindor NYM SS 17 $24
5 Zach Neto LAA SS 33 $22

There is an argument that Elly De La Cruz should be in the first tier with Witt, but there is just a bit more risk to his profile. He is making small improvements in the contact skills which is encouraging, but he definitely struggled in the second half, only hitting four home runs and stealing 12 bases. Manager Terry Francona stated that he would likely be giving him more days off after the break next year which could help but would lower his plate appearance upside a little. There upside is immense and at some point he could easily be the top player in fantasy, but the floor keeps him from challenging Witt for now.

Gunnar Henderson started the year on the IL and never really had the hot streak from a power perspective that one would have expected after his 2024 breakout. The more concerning part is the struggles versus lefties that plagued him in his rookie season returned. I do believe the power returns and he is better in 2025, but it may not be back to the 2024 levels and may look more like his 2023 season.

Francisco Lindor has gone 31/31 in two of the last three seasons and the one time he didn’t, he missed it by just two stolen bases in 2024. His profile is about as consistent as they come and the only thing that could change his rank is the talk that he could be traded this offseason.

In spite of starting the year on the IL due to offseason injury, Zach Neto still posted a 26/26 season and has made improvements on the underlying contact skills and power metrics. If not for starting the year on the IL and then ending it on the IL with a hand strain, he would have likely had a 30/30 season. The only issue for Neto is the lineup around him as the Angels have traded away Ward and it doesn’t seem like they will add much to support Neto and Trout.

Speed Demons With A Bit Of Power

These guys can change the makeup of your team in multiple categories without making you sacrifice the other ones.
Speed Demons With A Bit Of Power
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
6 Trea Turner PHI SS 27 $21
7 Maikel Garcia KCR 2B/3B/SS/OF 82 $14
10 CJ Abrams WAS SS 57 $15

Trea Turner still is a premium talent, but the power decline has been noticeable as he has had a dip in two straight seasons in homers and fly balls. He has also missed more time than he used to over his last two seasons, but still offers quality production in runs, stolen bases, and average.

Maikel Garcia has elite contact skills, but the addition of some power was the nice surprise. he improved his is barrel rate, his hard hit percentage and his exit velocities. Now, he is never going to be a massive homer or RBI threat, but to go from someone who hurt you in two categories to a contributor in five is massive. If the young offense behind him can continue to grow, Garcia could find himself pushing up into the next tier.

In spite of a terrible approach and questionable defense, CJ Abrams has turned into a pretty good fantasy option as a player who makes enough contact and then uses his speed to rack base hits and stolen bases. He likely won’t take another step forward until he improves his approach, but there isn’t a reason to believe he will until we see or hear something different.

Up The Middle Menaces

Great shortstop options or elite MIs
Up The Middle Menaces
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
8 Mookie Betts LAD SS/OF 63 $19
9 Nico Hoerner CHC 2B/SS 104 $10
11 Geraldo Perdomo ARI SS 85 $15
12 Jeremy Pena HOU SS 95 $14

Remember when Mookie Betts got sick during the Tokyo Series and lost 20 lbs because he vomited up every time he ate? We have to wonder if that was responsible for a lot of his struggles in the first half of the season. Obviously, it may just be natural regression as he ages into his 30s, but there are reasons to be concerned at this point. This will be the cheapest you will have been able to draft him ever and there isn’t much risk of him completely falling off, but the upside certainly seems limited. I agonized over where to rank him because this does feel low, so he could find himself moving up as the offseason rolls on.

Nico Hoerner was an afterthought in drafts last season due to concerns he could start the year on the IL since he was recovering from offseason surgery. However, he ended up being ready for the start of the actual season (missing the Tokyo Series) and being the guy he has been his entire career which is be a good asset in runs, stolen bases and batting average. He can actively hurt you in home runs and RBI which holds him back from moving up with Turner and Garcia, but he is a safe bet for a 30+ stolen bases and a good average and there is a range of outcomes where he competes for a batting title.

Death, taxes, and Justin Mason giving up on a player a year before his breakout are the most guaranteed things in this world. Geraldo Perdomo was unreal in 2025, hitting .290/.389/.462 with 20 home runs and 27 stolen bases. The power is likely to regress with his 6.2% barrel rate and a 32% hard hit percentage. However, the stolen bases can definitely stick around and he is a very good in-zone hitter which I always love. The most important thing is the health. This was Perdomo’s first season in which he was able to stay on the field and get over the 500 plate appearance mark. If he can stay on the field, he can accumulate and be very valuable.

Set It and Forget It(ish)

There’s talent here, but it comes with some risk.
Set It and Forget It(ish)
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
13 Trevor Story BOS SS 112 $16
14 Corey Seager TEX SS/DH 108 $11
15 Willy Adames SF SS 132 $12
16 Dansby Swanson CHC SS 148 $10
17 Xavier Edwards MIA SS ▲2 175 $6
18 Jacob Wilson OAK SS ▼1 180 $11
19 Bryson Stott PHI 2B/SS ▲1 183 $6
19 Jackson Holliday BAL 2B/SS ▲3 142 $5
21 Bo Bichette NYM SS ▼3 110 $17
21 Brendon Donovan STL 2B/SS/OF 284 $2

Prior to 2025, Trevor Story had not been able to stay on the field since arriving in Boston. It all came together in 2025 when he put together his best season since 2019. He is 33 and has a long injury history at this point, so there is a ton of risk that he doesn’t get back to 600 plate appearances, but especially in shallower formats where there is plenty of replacement value, he is well worth the risk.

Corey Seager is a stud on a per plate appearance basis, but he struggles to stay on the field. In shallow leagues, that’s fine because of the replacement value at the position, but it becomes harder to roster him the deeper the league gets. The skills are immaculate and there is talk he could be moved this offseason which would likely be a park upgrade, but that is a discussion for a different day.

Willy Adames really struggled in the his first few months with the Giants, but once July hit, he was a different player, hitting .242/.341/.512 with 21 home runs and eight stolen bases in 328 plate appearances. The park and team do not do him many favors and while it’s hard to know for sure how new manager Tony Vitello will approach things, Vitello did not push things on the basepaths in Tennessee in 2025 so a bump in stolen bases may not be on the horizon. He did become the first Giant to hit 30 homers since Barry Bonds left so you should get power and good counting stats at worst.

Jacob Wilson was on pace for a Rookie of the Year caliber season before he broke his forearm and missed a month of the season. Wilson has one of the best hit tools in all of baseball, but there isn’t a lot else in the profile. He did hit 13 home runs which was surprising especially because half of those happened on the road. The problem with one category guys is if they get hurt or slump, they can really make it hard to replace their value on the wire, but the price is fair and if you need average, he will definitely give you plenty.

Jackson Holliday was decent in his first full season in the Majors and while there wasn’t a ton to do backflips over, he just turned 22 and the underlying skills are pretty well set for the future. We know there is good underlying power in Jackson’s bat and when it finally shows, he could be a stud, but it’s hard to know when that will happen. For now, he is a high floor guy that should continue to get better as he matures, but if people start paying for the breakout, that might be premature for 2026.

Bichette has signed a multi-year deal with the Mets to play third base. He is moving to a worse park for his power and will be seeing pitchers he is much less familar with. He could get a boost in stolen bases as the Mets did run much more than the Blue Jays, but this isn’t the best overall fit for him. Picking up third base will be nice, but he does drop a little bit in the ranks.

Donovan is a high floor, low ceiling glue guy that could be a runs/average play in a lot of leagues if he can stay healthy. Unfortunately, he has struggled with that in all, but one of his seasons in the Majors. He is reportedly a trade candidate which could massive change his value depending on where he ends up.

Shortstops With Red Flags

These guys have the talent to jump up and be more but also have a red flag or two or three that add on risk
Shortstops With Red Flags
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
23 Ezequiel Tovar COL SS 194 $11
25 Xander Bogaerts SD 2B/SS 223 $5
26 Ernie Clement TOR 1B/2B/3B/SS 287 $5
27 Matt McLain CIN 2B/SS 226 $4
28 Masyn Winn STL SS ▲1 263 $5
29 Otto Lopez MIA 2B/SS ▲1 212 $5
30 Joey Ortiz MIL 3B/SS ▼2 398 $1
31 Andrew Gimenez TOR 2B/SS 314 $5
32 Carlos Correa HOU SS 271 $1
33 Chase Meidroth CHW 2B/SS 339 -$4
34 Colson Montgomery CHW SS 236 $3
35 Brooks Lee MIN 2B/3B/SS 320 $0
35 Nasim Nunez WAS 2B/SS ▲1 399 -$15
36 Anthony Volpe NYY SS ▲1 350 -$4

Ezequiel Tovar lost over 60 games in 2025 to injuries and when he returned in the second half, he struggled to get going completely. He still has terrible plate discipline and is not a great in-zone hitter and while there is pop and Coors helps, the underlying skills are a problem.

Ernie Clement had an unreal postseason run, hitting .411/.416/.562. Add that into his fantastic positional eligibility and there is going to be some hype on him heading into drafts. He makes a ton of in-zone contact, which I love but he also struggled with swinging too much outside the zone and his lack of punch paints a mediocre picture. Right now, he has a full time role, but if the Blue Jays bring back Bichette or someone else, that would like disappear back to being a utility guy.

It’s hard to know what to make of Matt McLain at this point. He broke out of nowhere in 2023, missed all of 2024, and then was extremely uneven in his return to the field in 2025. A lot of the skills we saw in 2023 were still intact in 2025, but he was unable to maintain the high BABIP rate and he lifted the ball too much which caused his line drive rate to drop from 24% (9th best in baseball) to 17% (14th worst in baseball.) The question is whether his 2026 will look more like his 2025 season than his 2023 debut which I tend to believe it will unless we get more of a reason to think otherwise before drafts are in full force.

Colson Montgomery has power and a pretty good approach, but he struggles with consistent contact. That won’t be a problem on a rebuilding team in Chicago, but he could hurt your batting average in a ton of formats. If he can make just a bit more contact, he could jump up a few tiers and at 24 years old, there is still room for skills growth.

Nasim Nuñez has speed and is good defensively, but not a ton else in the profile. He does walk some, so if he can make league average contact, there could be some upside here on a guy that is penciled into a regular role right now in Washington.

Anthony Volpe has all the talent in the world, but has struggled over the course of his first few seasons. A lot of people in and out of New York seem ready to give up on him, but he still has power and speed along with a better hit tool than he gets credit for. He is low on these ranks because he is likely to begin the season on the IL and there is a chance the Yankees move on from him, but I am not ready to completely disregard him at 25 years old.

Deep League MIs

Shallow leagues are not drafting these guys, but still should keep them on your radar
Deep League MIs
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
37 Jose Caballero NYY 2B/3B/SS ▲1 227 -$12
39 Willi Castro MIN 2B/3B/SS/OF 346 $1
40 Jared Triolo PIT 1B/2B/3B/SS 403 -$3
41 Brayan Rocchio CLE SS 409 -$5
42 Jake Cronenworth SD 1B/2B/SS 407 -$3
43 J.P. Crawford SEA SS 386 -$4
43 Konnor Griffin PIT SS ▲1 -$1
44 Nick Gonzales PIT 2B/SS ▲1 521 -$9
45 Mauricio Dubon ATL 2B/3B/SS/OF ▲2 480 -$16

Jose Caballero has a ton of speed and he puts it to good use when he gets playing time. Unless the Yankees bring in someone else, he will get that shot to begin the year with Volpe being on the IL. Even if you get nothing else from him in 2026, he could steal 50-60 bases this year.

Konnor Griffin is the top prospect in baseball for a reason. Recent reports say the Pirates will give him a shot to break camp camp with the team. I am still dubious that they actually start his clock, but there is amazing upside if they do. He could shoot up this list into the top 20 if it seems like he will be on the Opening Day roster.

With Kim out for the first half of the season, Mauricio Dubon is expected to get most of plate appearances at shortstop for the Braves. There isnt a ton of upside here but he will get plate appearances.

The Rest

Really deep league guys at best
The Rest
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
46 Brooks Baldwin CHW 2B/3B/SS/OF 439 -$8
47 Josh Smith TEX 3B/SS/DH ▲1 351 -$8
48 Gabriel Arias CLE 2B/3B/SS ▲1 466 -$11
49 Max Muncy OAK 2B/3B/SS ▲1 492 -$10
50 Zach McKinstry DET 2B/3B/SS/OF ▲1 340 -$10
51 Hyeseong Kim LAD 2B/SS/OF ▲1 491 -$26
52 Ryan Ritter COL 2B/SS ▲1 623 -$21
53 Isiah Kiner-Falefa PIT 2B/3B/SS ▲1 597 -$18
54 Taylor Walls TB 2B/SS ▲1 625 -$16
55 Ezequiel Duran TEX 1B/2B/3B/SS/OF ▲1 665 -$17
56 Javier Baéz DET 2B/3B/SS/OF ▲1 474 -$15
57 Oswald Peraza LAA 1B/2B/3B/SS ▲1 709 -$22
58 Ha-Seong Kim ATL SS ▼34 280 -$11
58 Ronny Mauricio NYM 2B/3B/SS/DH ▲1 522 -$26
59 David Hamilton BOS 2B/SS ▲1 722 -$25
60 Thomas Saggese STL 2B/3B/SS ▲1 525 -$15

Find someone who loves you as much as the Rays love Taylor Walls. Just don’t draft them or Walls for your fantasy team.

Ha-Seong Kim is going to be missing 4-5 months with another injury. He is not draftable in most formats.

Thomas Saggese will jump up this ranks if Donovan is traded.

Prospects That Could Debut This Year

The future may be here sooner rather than later for some of these guys.
Prospects That Could Debut This Year
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
61 Kevin McGonigle DET SS ▲1 -$18
62 Carson Williams TB SS ▲1 445 -$8
63 JJ Wetherholt STL SS ▲1 -$11
65 Colt Emerson SEA SS -$18
66 Sebastian Walcott TEX SS -$31

Kevin McGonigle doesn’t have a ton of power or speed, but what he does do is rake. His highest strikeout rate at any level was 12.6% and does a bit of everything. He won’t have to stay in the minors for long once the Tigers realize he is better than Baez and McKinstry already.

Carson Williams struggled in his debut in 2025 and while he has a shot to make the team as the everyday shortstop, the lack of hit tool is a huge problem. With the Rays shedding salary, he probably will get a good amount of PAs, so chances are that he is further up this list next update.


Full Rankings Without Tiers

No tiers. Just the rankings.
Full Rankings Without Tiers
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
1 Bobby Witt Jr. KC SS 3 $35
2 Elly De La Cruz CIN SS 10 $28
3 Gunnar Henderson BAL SS 14 $27
4 Francisco Lindor NYM SS 17 $24
5 Zach Neto LAA SS 33 $22
6 Trea Turner PHI SS 27 $21
7 Maikel Garcia KCR 2B/3B/SS/OF 82 $14
8 Mookie Betts LAD SS/OF 63 $19
9 Nico Hoerner CHC 2B/SS 104 $10
10 CJ Abrams WAS SS 57 $15
11 Geraldo Perdomo ARI SS 85 $15
12 Jeremy Pena HOU SS 95 $14
13 Trevor Story BOS SS 112 $16
14 Corey Seager TEX SS/DH 108 $11
15 Willy Adames SF SS 132 $12
16 Dansby Swanson CHC SS 148 $10
17 Xavier Edwards MIA SS ▲2 175 $6
18 Jacob Wilson OAK SS ▼1 180 $11
19 Bryson Stott PHI 2B/SS ▲1 183 $6
19 Jackson Holliday BAL 2B/SS ▲3 142 $5
21 Bo Bichette NYM SS ▼3 110 $17
21 Brendon Donovan STL 2B/SS/OF 284 $2
23 Ezequiel Tovar COL SS 194 $11
25 Xander Bogaerts SD 2B/SS 223 $5
26 Ernie Clement TOR 1B/2B/3B/SS 287 $5
27 Matt McLain CIN 2B/SS 226 $4
28 Masyn Winn STL SS ▲1 263 $5
29 Otto Lopez MIA 2B/SS ▲1 212 $5
30 Joey Ortiz MIL 3B/SS ▼2 398 $1
31 Andrew Gimenez TOR 2B/SS 314 $5
32 Carlos Correa HOU SS 271 $1
33 Chase Meidroth CHW 2B/SS 339 -$4
34 Colson Montgomery CHW SS 236 $3
35 Brooks Lee MIN 2B/3B/SS 320 $0
35 Nasim Nunez WAS 2B/SS ▲1 399 -$15
36 Anthony Volpe NYY SS ▲1 350 -$4
37 Jose Caballero NYY 2B/3B/SS ▲1 227 -$12
39 Willi Castro MIN 2B/3B/SS/OF 346 $1
40 Jared Triolo PIT 1B/2B/3B/SS 403 -$3
41 Brayan Rocchio CLE SS 409 -$5
42 Jake Cronenworth SD 1B/2B/SS 407 -$3
43 J.P. Crawford SEA SS 386 -$4
43 Konnor Griffin PIT SS ▲1 -$1
44 Nick Gonzales PIT 2B/SS ▲1 521 -$9
45 Mauricio Dubon ATL 2B/3B/SS/OF ▲2 480 -$16
46 Brooks Baldwin CHW 2B/3B/SS/OF 439 -$8
47 Josh Smith TEX 3B/SS/DH ▲1 351 -$8
48 Gabriel Arias CLE 2B/3B/SS ▲1 466 -$11
49 Max Muncy OAK 2B/3B/SS ▲1 492 -$10
50 Zach McKinstry DET 2B/3B/SS/OF ▲1 340 -$10
51 Hyeseong Kim LAD 2B/SS/OF ▲1 491 -$26
52 Ryan Ritter COL 2B/SS ▲1 623 -$21
53 Isiah Kiner-Falefa PIT 2B/3B/SS ▲1 597 -$18
54 Taylor Walls TB 2B/SS ▲1 625 -$16
55 Ezequiel Duran TEX 1B/2B/3B/SS/OF ▲1 665 -$17
56 Javier Baéz DET 2B/3B/SS/OF ▲1 474 -$15
57 Oswald Peraza LAA 1B/2B/3B/SS ▲1 709 -$22
58 Ha-Seong Kim ATL SS ▼34 280 -$11
58 Ronny Mauricio NYM 2B/3B/SS/DH ▲1 522 -$26
59 David Hamilton BOS 2B/SS ▲1 722 -$25
60 Thomas Saggese STL 2B/3B/SS ▲1 525 -$15
61 Kevin McGonigle DET SS ▲1 -$18
62 Carson Williams TB SS ▲1 445 -$8
63 JJ Wetherholt STL SS ▲1 -$11
65 Colt Emerson SEA SS -$18
66 Sebastian Walcott TEX SS -$31

Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered SP Rankings Follow Up

Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Freddy Peralta throws during the first inning of their game against the Los Angeles Angels Tuesday, September 16, 2025 at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

After a series of these follow-up articles on hitters, we turn our attention to pitchers and all that stuff I said about how the various formats differ from each other gets thrown out the window. Kind of. The formats are still different but they are different in different ways. And so if you have been reading along this month, forget what you think you know, because we are basically starting over.

Read the rest of this entry »


Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: Starting Pitchers

Atlanta Braves pitcher Chris Sale (51) pitches the ball against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the third inning at Truist Park.
Credit: Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images

The Ottoneu rankings push shifts to the mound with a look at starting pitchers. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP

Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/IP. Points per innings pitched is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating pitchers in Ottoneu but there are plenty of factors that will affect a player’s ranking outside of their raw projection. Injury risk, projected playing time and role, age, and future value are all things that need to be taken into account when evaluating pitchers.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected P/IP but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier.

Ottoneu Points SP Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Projected Pts Pts/IP Notes
$45-$54 1 Tarik Skubal 1181.2 6.12 Arguably the best pitcher in baseball right now. Dominant fastball and three swing-and-miss secondary pitches.
$45-$54 2 Paul Skenes 1120.5 6.09 Arguably better than Skubal and definitely younger. Strikeout rate took a tiny step backwards in 2025 and his fastball isn’t as dominant.
$36-$44 3 Garrett Crochet 1094.7 5.71 Proved health concerns were a thing of the past in 2025. Best slider in baseball but can be a little home run prone.
$28-$35 4 Chris Sale 914.3 5.78 Projected to be #3 pitcher by P/IP but there are injury and workload concerns.
$28-$35 5 Yoshinobu Yamamoto 869.5 5.49 Fantastic underlying skills, despite small bump in walk rate. Overall value hampered by volume concerns.
$28-$35 6 Shohei Ohtani 605.5 5.42 If Ohtani was only a pitcher, this is where he’d rank based on his P/IP ceiling. Of course, the question is how many innings he’ll actually pitch in 2026.
$28-$35 7 Cristopher Sánchez 1024.4 5.33 Followed up breakout 2024 with an ever better season in ’25. Pretty ideal profile for Ottoneu: high strikeouts, low walks, high groundball rate.
$28-$35 8 Blake Snell 760.2 5.32 Strikeout rate dipped below 30% for the first time since 2017 but was still excellent in limited innings. Like every Dodgers starter, the question is volume.
$28-$35 9 Logan Gilbert 888.2 5.28 Big spike in strikeout rate came with a bunch more home runs. His splitter is an incredible pitch, but the slider and fastball can get hit hard at times.
$28-$35 10 Tyler Glasnow 697.6 5.23 Another Dodgers starter with workload concerns, but more importantly, his walk rate spiked and strikeout rate fell in 2025. His slider took a significant step backwards.
$28-$35 11 Logan Webb 1058.2 5.20 A metronome who got even better in 2025. Improved his strikeout rate while keeping his walk rate low and groundball rate high.
$28-$35 12 Hunter Greene 831.9 5.18 A groin injury derailed what was looking like a breakout season. Figured out how to locate his slider and his strikeout-to-walk ratio improved significantly.
$21-$27 13 Zack Wheeler 859.5 5.62 Thoracic outlet surgery throws his entire future up in the air — and he was already entering his age-36 season. Monitor his health reports in the spring.
$21-$27 14 Cole Ragans 881.4 5.55 Might have been the hardest pitcher to rank. Major shoulder injury last year throws his health into question. Big improvements in his underlying skills — career-high strikeout-to-walk ratio — but BABIP ballooned over .350.
$21-$27 15 Jacob deGrom 898.3 5.12 Finally healthy for an entire season but skills deteriorated a bit. Still very good, but not elite anymore.
$21-$27 16 Chase Burns 592.3 5.12 Massive ceiling we got a glimpse of in 2025. Is the repertoire deep enough to be successful as a frontline starter?
$21-$27 17 Max Fried 949.0 5.11 Had an excellent debut season in New York. Almost as metronomic as Webb.
$21-$27 18 Kyle Bradish 694.5 5.11 Returned from Tommy John surgery to make 6 promising starts in 2025. All his skills looked intact.
$21-$27 19 Hunter Brown 919.5 5.10 Followed up breakout 2024 with an ever better season in ’25. Strikeout rate increase wasn’t supported by enough additional whiffs.
$21-$27 20 Bryan Woo 917.8 5.10 Two fantastic fastballs and a developing repertoire of secondary weapons. Consistently good every week.
$21-$27 21 Nathan Eovaldi 811.7 5.02 Health is a big question but he put together his best season of his career in 2025 before getting sidelined.
$21-$27 22 Spencer Schwellenbach 731.6 5.02 Should be healthy to start 2026 after elbow fracture. Showed fantastic skills across two half seasons in ’24 and ’25.
$21-$27 23 Dylan Cease 909.8 4.99 Can be extremely inconsistent from start to start, but the strikeouts give him a solid foundation.
$21-$27 24 Framber Valdez 934.5 4.98 Elite groundball rate means fewer home runs — good in Ottoneu — but his strikeout-to-walk ratio slipped a bit in 2025.
$21-$27 25 Jesús Luzardo 866.9 4.96 Healthy in 2025 and put up a season very similar to his breakout in 2023.
$21-$27 26 George Kirby 842.0 4.94 Returned from shoulder injury with skills mostly intact. Signature command slipped a little bit but he might have found a breaking ball that works for him.
$21-$27 27 Brandon Woodruff 682.4 4.92 Returned from shoulder injury with skills mostly intact. Strikeout-to-walk ratio was fantastic despite a dip in overall Stuff+.
$21-$27 28 Joe Ryan 828.2 4.86 Really struggled with a home run problem during the final two months of 2025 (12 HRs in 10 starts, 5.01 FIP). Fastball and secondaries all looked good, so it could have been just bad luck.
$15-$20 29 Kris Bubic 655.7 4.88 Breakout season interrupted by a shoulder injury in July. If he’s healthy, his underlying skills look solid.
$15-$20 30 Freddy Peralta 860.7 4.86 Solid skills across the board but high fly ball rate leads to a few too many home runs.
$15-$20 31 Eury Pérez 661.5 4.84 Up-and-down ceiling after returning from Tommy John surgery. Huge Stuff+ darling with a massive ceiling.
$15-$20 32 Sonny Gray 852.4 4.84 Veteran who has been able to stay effective as he ages. Fastball dipped below 92 mph in 2025 and new home park in Boston won’t do him any favors.
$15-$20 33 Nolan McLean 678.6 4.75 Brilliant debut at the end of the season in 2025. Managed to improve command in the big leagues to go along with high strikeout and groundball rates.
$15-$20 34 Drew Rasmussen 732.5 4.74 Despite workload limits, still pitched 150 innings in 2025 with solid underlying skills. Wore down towards the end of the season.
$15-$20 35 Jacob Misiorowski 603.2 4.73 The raw stuff is undeniable but the lack of command is holding him back. Strikeout rate is high enough to offset the free passes but there are volume concerns too.
$15-$20 36 Ranger Suárez 763.3 4.72 Command improved in 2025 to go along with decent strikeout rate and good groundball rate.
$15-$20 37 Pablo López 787.8 4.72 Elbow injury in 2025 turned out to be minor, returned to make 3 starts in September. Career best P/IP was likely driven by good home run luck, not any skill improvements.
$15-$20 38 Nick Pivetta 844.5 4.69 Enjoyed a career-best season in 2025 thanks to a big drop in home runs allowed. Fly ball heavy batted ball profile is always dangerous.
$15-$20 39 Gerrit Cole 623.5 4.67 Coming off Tommy John surgery and will probably miss the first few months of the season. Track record speaks for itself but still questions about his skills returning after injury.
$15-$20 40 Michael King 735.5 4.65 Shoulder injury derailed his season in 2025 but stikeout-to-walk ratio wasn’t too affected. Health still a question.
$15-$20 41 Kevin Gausman 853.8 4.59 Bounced back a bit in 2025 with improved strikeout-to-walk ratio. BABIP allowed dropped to .262 which is likely to regress upwards.
$10-$14 42 Emmet Sheehan 518.4 5.02 Like every other Dodgers starter, he has workload concerns. Took a huge step forward in 2025 with a pair of fantastic secondary pitches.
$10-$14 43 Justin Steele 496.2 4.84 Coming off Tommy John surgery and will probably miss the first few months of the season. He was great for three years with his weird fastball but needs to prove he’s healthy.
$10-$14 44 Trey Yesavage 644.4 4.61 Incredible debut in September and through the playoffs. Super weird release point didn’t help his fastball but his splitted was a monster. Will the Blue Jays manage his workload in ’26?
$10-$14 45 Edward Cabrera 609.9 4.57 Finally figured out his command issues, dropped his walk rate by 4 points. Health is still a big question.
$10-$14 46 Spencer Strider 696.5 4.57 Didn’t regain his fastball after Tommy John surgery and his whole arsenal suffered. If the velocity is back, he could be a steal. If not, he might not even rise to this level of value.
$10-$14 47 Jack Flaherty 744.1 4.56 Strikeout-to-walk ratio slipped a bit in 2025 after resurgent season in ’24. Great breaking balls but can be a bit erratic.
$10-$14 48 Carlos Rodón 781.9 4.53 Coming off offseason elbow surgery and will probably miss the first few months of the season. Decent skills across the board when healthy.
$10-$14 49 Nick Lodolo 667.6 4.52 Just had the best season of his career in 2025. Improved command and solid strikeout rate but needs to stay healthy.
$10-$14 50 MacKenzie Gore 762.8 4.49 Huge strikeout ceiling thanks to elite secondary pitches but wore down during the second half of 2025 (2.96 FIP in 1H, 5.49 in 2H).
$6-$9 51 Corbin Burnes 612.7 4.85 Will be returning from Tommy John surgery sometime midseason. Was struggling with his command in 2025 before the injury.
$6-$9 52 DJ Herz 281.2 4.72 Will be returning from Tommy John surgery sometime midseason. Had an encouraging debut in 2024 before the injury but his spot in the rotation isn’t guaranteed until he’s healthy.
$6-$9 53 Reese Olson 560.3 4.68 Will be returning from a shoulder injury but should be healthy for spring training. Solid skills across the board when healthy.
$6-$9 54 Grayson Rodriguez 583.5 4.64 Missed the entire 2025 season with multiple arm issues. Had shown some promising skills a few years ago but health throws it all into question. New home in Angels Stadium won’t help either.
$6-$9 55 Connelly Early 256.9 4.62 Top prospect who had a very exciting debut in September. Currently buried on the Red Sox depth chart but should force his way into an opportunity sooner rather than later.
$6-$9 56 Braxton Ashcraft 582.8 4.61 Top prospect who finally got a shot to start in August. His fastball is merely okay but his secondaries look great. Will he get a chance in the rotation out of spring training?
$6-$9 57 Shane McClanahan 634.3 4.58 Hasn’t pitched since August 2023 thanks to Tommy John surgery and a triceps injury. I have no idea what to expect from him if he’s healthy (which isn’t a guarantee).
$6-$9 58 Jonah Tong 199.5 4.56 Top prospect who had a bit of a rough debut in September. Currently buried on the Mets depth chart and needs a third pitch to raise his ceiling.
$6-$9 59 Jared Jones 448.4 4.53 Will be returning from Tommy John surgery sometime midseason. Had an encouraging debut in 2024 before the injury but his spot in the rotation isn’t guaranteed until he’s healthy.
$6-$9 60 José Soriano 748.4 4.51 Four swing-and-miss secondary pitches but can’t generate strikeouts because his pitch mix is too sinker heavy. Elite groundball rate provides a solid floor.
$6-$9 61 Joey Cantillo 567.1 4.50 Looked great once he earned a chance to start in July. Command is a little shaky but has a legit weapon in his changeup.
$6-$9 62 Matthew Boyd 732.5 4.47 Finally healthy for the first time since 2019. Strikeout-to-walk ratio was excellent despite a lower strikeout rate.
$6-$9 63 Bubba Chandler 637.9 4.46 Top prospect who had a very exciting debut in September. His fastball looks elite, he’s got excellent command, but his secondaries need to develop a bit more. Will he get a chance in the rotation out of spring training?
$6-$9 64 Cam Schlittler 582.1 4.46 Excellent debut in 2025. Solid three pitch mix but lack of command hurts his ceiling a bit.
$6-$9 65 Sean Manaea 649.9 4.45 Cut his pitch mix to just his fastball and slider. A career-high strikeout-to-walk ratio was great to see but he also suffered from a massive home run spike.
$6-$9 66 Joe Musgrove 632.1 4.43 Will be returning from Tommy John surgery but should be healthy for spring training. Solid skills across the board when healthy.
$6-$9 67 Kodai Senga 532.6 4.40 Hamstring injury derailed his season and couldn’t get his mechanics right after returning. We’ve seen the ceiling, but I’m not sure he’ll bounce back.
$6-$9 68 Luis Castillo 792.9 4.38 Velocity dropped in 2025 and strikeout rate dropped 3 points for the second season in a row. Decent skills otherwise, but probably won’t reach his ceiling again.
$6-$9 69 Cade Horton 552.3 4.37 Excellent debut in 2025 but a lot of his success seemed to be BABIP driven. Solid command, deep repertoire, great secondaries give him a decent floor and potential for high ceiling.
$6-$9 70 David Peterson 734.2 4.37 Decent skills across the board. High groundball rate keeps the ball in the park, but command isn’t good enough to raise his ceiling too high.
$6-$9 71 Trevor Rogers 660.3 4.37 Had an absolutely incredible run to finish 2025. Health will always be a question but showed off the same skills from his 2021 breakout.
$6-$9 72 Tanner Bibee 778.0 4.35 Despite strong Stuff+ grades, he never seemed to be able to put it all together in 2025. Strikeout rate dropped 5 points and he allowed a bunch more home runs.
$6-$9 73 Gavin Williams 716.8 4.34 Second half success was largely BABIP driven. Command is still lacking but his deep repertoire gives him something to build on.
$6-$9 74 Ian Seymour 410.2 4.33 Looked great once he earned a chance to start in August. Has an excellent changeup but might get squeezed out of the rotation to start the season.
$6-$9 75 Ryan Pepiot 709.4 4.31 Went through some big ups and downs in 2025 and was hurt by Steinbrenner Field. Decent skills across the board and should be better back in Tropicana Field.
$6-$9 76 Robbie Ray 760.3 4.30 Finally healthy after Tommy John surgery in 2023. Didn’t have the same strikeout ceiling we’ve been used to and his command was a little shaky.
$6-$9 77 Shane Bieber 584.3 4.30 Returned from Tommy John surgery to make 7 promising starts in 2025. All his skills looked intact but suffered from a home run problem.
$6-$9 78 Clay Holmes 695.8 4.26 The transition to the rotation worked out but he wore down as the season went on. High groundball rate keeps the ball in the park, but strikeout-to-walk ratio is merely okay.
$6-$9 79 Zac Gallen 792.9 4.21 Suffered through the worst season of his career in 2025. Strikeout rate dropped 4 points, but still could bounce back if he can figure out the whiff rate issues.
$6-$9 80 Sandy Alcantara 757.8 4.16 Got stronger as the season wore on. Strikeout rate ticked up and walk rate ticked down. We know what his ceiling looks like.
$3-$5 81 Reynaldo López 601.2 4.71
$3-$5 82 Logan Henderson 385.6 4.55
$3-$5 83 Robert Gasser 245.2 4.44
$3-$5 84 Braxton Garrett 573.5 4.44
$3-$5 85 Reid Detmers 545.0 4.39
$3-$5 86 Brandon Sproat 211.4 4.38
$3-$5 87 Cody Ponce 폰세 683.5 4.35
$3-$5 88 Grant Holmes 401.2 4.30
$3-$5 89 Michael Soroka 528.4 4.28
$3-$5 90 Merrill Kelly 켈리 741.9 4.27
$3-$5 91 Janson Junk 378.7 4.25
$3-$5 92 Chad Patrick 566.8 4.22
$3-$5 93 Hurston Waldrep 541.8 4.22
$3-$5 94 Mike Burrows 529.7 4.22
$3-$5 95 Landen Roupp 485.2 4.21
$3-$5 96 Tyler Mahle 548.7 4.20
$3-$5 97 Shane Baz 662.2 4.18
$3-$5 98 Ryne Nelson 661.5 4.18
$3-$5 99 Mitch Keller 735.1 4.13
$3-$5 100 Michael Wacha 686.9 4.13
$3-$5 101 Aaron Nola 706.7 4.13
$3-$5 102 Shane Smith 650.9 4.12
$3-$5 103 Bryce Miller 574.1 4.10
$3-$5 104 Noah Cameron 586.3 4.08
$3-$5 105 Yusei Kikuchi 717.0 4.05
$3-$5 106 Will Warren 578.0 4.04
$3-$5 107 Luis Gil 507.3 4.03
$3-$5 108 Casey Mize 603.7 4.03
$3-$5 109 Shota Imanaga 614.7 4.03
$3-$5 110 Andrew Abbott 632.1 3.94
$3-$5 111 Tatsuya Imai 602.7 3.94
$3-$5 112 Roki Sasaki 462.7 3.92
$1-$2 113 Ricky Tiedemann 186.0 4.62
$1-$2 114 Kai-Wei Teng 139.6 4.42
$1-$2 115 Sean Newcomb 432.6 4.36
$1-$2 116 Payton Tolle 326.2 4.35
$1-$2 117 Christian Scott 209.9 4.29
$1-$2 118 Joe Boyle 371.9 4.27
$1-$2 119 David Festa 227.4 4.27
$1-$2 120 Kyle Leahy 478.0 4.25
$1-$2 121 Thomas White 116.8 4.23
$1-$2 122 AJ Blubaugh 215.7 4.22
$1-$2 123 Stephen Kolek 368.2 4.19
$1-$2 124 Foster Griffin 589.1 4.16
$1-$2 125 Parker Messick 469.7 4.15
$1-$2 126 Taj Bradley 530.3 4.12
$1-$2 127 Ryan Weathers 503.8 4.11
$1-$2 128 Brady Singer 709.8 4.09
$1-$2 129 Chris Bassitt 696.9 4.09
$1-$2 130 Jacob Lopez 510.0 4.09
$1-$2 131 Johan Oviedo 437.3 4.08
$1-$2 132 Quinn Priester 627.9 4.07
$1-$2 133 Ryan Weiss 와이스 367.4 4.07
$1-$2 134 Andrew Painter 526.2 4.05
$1-$2 135 Kutter Crawford 528.7 4.03
$1-$2 136 Brayan Bello 667.5 4.03
$1-$2 137 Cade Cavalli 527.3 4.02
$1-$2 138 Jack Leiter 617.3 4.02
$1-$2 139 Troy Melton 444.8 3.99
$1-$2 140 Zebby Matthews 433.2 3.99
$1-$2 141 Nick Martinez 612.0 3.97
$1-$2 142 Robby Snelling 359.6 3.96
$1-$2 143 Seth Lugo 653.4 3.94
$1-$2 144 Brandon Pfaadt 684.0 3.93
$1-$2 145 Kumar Rocker 446.0 3.86
$1-$2 146 Bailey Ober 565.1 3.86
$1-$2 147 Spencer Arrighetti 368.8 3.84
$1-$2 148 Matthew Liberatore 551.6 3.84
$1-$2 149 Lucas Giolito 604.0 3.72
$1-$2 150 Zach Eflin 509.8 3.65
$0-$1 151 Seth Hernandez N/A N/A
$0-$1 152 Kade Anderson N/A N/A
$0-$1 153 Liam Doyle N/A N/A
$0-$1 154 Jamie Arnold N/A N/A
$0-$1 155 Gage Jump N/A N/A
$0-$1 156 Jarlin Susana N/A N/A
$0-$1 157 Tyler Bremner N/A N/A
$0-$1 158 Tylor Megill 386.1 4.71
$0-$1 159 Clarke Schmidt 363.7 4.64
$0-$1 160 Ben Brown 339.8 4.50
$0-$1 161 Jakob Junis 300.4 4.44
$0-$1 162 Ronel Blanco 464.3 4.43
$0-$1 163 DL Hall 191.4 4.29
$0-$1 164 AJ Smith-Shawver 148.6 4.17
$0-$1 165 Tanner Houck 563.2 4.16
$0-$1 166 Chris Murphy 154.4 4.16
$0-$1 167 Kyle Harrison 325.7 4.12
$0-$1 168 Tobias Myers 342.6 4.11
$0-$1 169 Patrick Sandoval 472.1 4.11
$0-$1 170 Eric Lauer 라우어 320.4 4.10
$0-$1 171 Trevor McDonald 236.7 4.09
$0-$1 172 Quinn Mathews 182.2 4.08
$0-$1 173 Keaton Winn 155.1 4.08
$0-$1 174 Gavin Stone 383.1 4.02
$0-$1 175 Cody Bradford 379.8 4.02
$0-$1 176 Jacob Latz 442.7 4.02
$0-$1 177 Steven Matz 454.9 4.01
$0-$1 178 J.T. Ginn 349.2 3.99
$0-$1 179 Ryan Bergert 274.2 3.92
$0-$1 180 Javier Assad 352.0 3.91
$0-$1 181 Dustin May 552.5 3.90
$0-$1 182 Michael McGreevy 495.1 3.90
$0-$1 183 Simeon Woods Richardson 475.9 3.86
$0-$1 184 Dean Kremer 609.8 3.86
$0-$1 185 Adrian Houser 510.1 3.86
$0-$1 186 Hunter Dobbins 348.1 3.84
$0-$1 187 Hayden Birdsong 243.3 3.82
$0-$1 188 Max Meyer 439.1 3.81
$0-$1 189 Blade Tidwell 111.5 3.80
$0-$1 190 Colin Rea 494.8 3.78
$0-$1 191 Sawyer Gipson-Long 185.2 3.78
$0-$1 192 Brad Lord 541.5 3.77
$0-$1 193 Rhett Lowder 306.5 3.77
$0-$1 194 Tyler Wells 352.6 3.76
$0-$1 195 Luis Severino 653.3 3.76
$0-$1 196 Jameson Taillon 575.3 3.76
$0-$1 197 José Berríos 572.9 3.75
$0-$1 198 Aaron Civale 509.2 3.75
$0-$1 199 Max Scherzer 443.4 3.74
$0-$1 200 Noah Schultz 69.9 3.73
$0-$1 201 Andre Pallante 544.1 3.72
$0-$1 202 Cade Povich 302.5 3.69
$0-$1 203 Mick Abel 359.1 3.69
$0-$1 204 Luis Morales 373.7 3.62
$0-$1 205 Yilber Díaz 126.0 3.61
$0-$1 206 Eduardo Rodriguez 508.7 3.57
$0-$1 207 Cristian Javier 479.6 3.55
$0-$1 208 Jackson Jobe 153.9 3.14
$0 209 Hagen Smith N/A N/A
$0 210 John Means 110.0 5.12
$0 211 Yu Darvish 359.8 4.13
$0 212 Alex Cobb 328.2 4.06
$0 213 Jhony Brito 168.0 3.93
$0 214 Ty Madden 102.4 3.93
$0 215 Hayden Wesneski 189.2 3.92
$0 216 Justin Verlander 554.9 3.88
$0 217 Cooper Criswell 291.3 3.87
$0 218 Jordan Wicks 177.6 3.86
$0 219 Ryan Yarbrough 298.5 3.76
$0 220 Charlie Morton 480.6 3.76
$0 221 Matt Waldron 369.9 3.75
$0 222 Jon Gray 462.3 3.74
$0 223 Spencer Turnbull 245.1 3.72
$0 224 Kyle Wright 328.9 3.69
$0 225 Joey Wentz 282.9 3.65
$0 226 Ben Lively 라이블리 410.3 3.64
$0 227 Paul Blackburn 242.5 3.62
$0 228 Griffin Canning 476.3 3.61
$0 229 Zack Littell 623.5 3.60
$0 230 Joe Ross 204.4 3.60
$0 231 Jordan Montgomery 393.2 3.59
$0 232 Erick Fedde 페디 559.2 3.57
$0 233 Yoendrys Gómez 276.8 3.55
$0 234 Bryce Elder 408.9 3.55
$0 235 Lance McCullers Jr. 382.8 3.55
$0 236 Ryan Gusto 264.7 3.55
$0 237 Slade Cecconi 494.7 3.53
$0 238 Richard Fitts 332.1 3.52
$0 239 Kyle Hart 하트 210.4 3.52
$0 240 Luis Medina 363.7 3.49
$0 241 Jose Quintana 505.4 3.48
$0 242 Jeffrey Springs 581.6 3.48
$0 243 Mason Barnett 163.2 3.47
$0 244 Logan Evans 238.2 3.46
$0 245 Davis Martin 499.7 3.46
$0 246 Bailey Falter 367.7 3.44
$0 247 Mitch Spence 326.9 3.43
$0 248 Chayce McDermott 65.0 3.43
$0 249 Nestor Cortes 455.4 3.42
$0 250 Anthony Kay 465.6 3.41
$0 251 Mitchell Parker 439.0 3.40
$0 252 Sean Burke 490.2 3.39
$0 253 Ryan Feltner 395.0 3.38
$0 254 Logan Allen로건 436.9 3.37
$0 255 Patrick Corbin 519.0 3.37
$0 256 Martín Pérez 420.6 3.37
$0 257 Marcus Stroman 455.6 3.36
$0 258 JP Sears 478.6 3.34
$0 259 Emerson Hancock 235.8 3.34
$0 260 Alek Manoah 330.6 3.34
$0 261 Michael Lorenzen 472.9 3.34
$0 262 Keider Montero 296.9 3.33
$0 263 Mitch Farris 85.9 3.32
$0 264 Osvaldo Bido 206.5 3.30
$0 265 Bowden Francis 215.3 3.29
$0 266 Landon Knack 148.7 3.29
$0 267 Chris Paddack 430.0 3.27
$0 268 J.P. France 189.8 3.26
$0 269 Jason Alexander 204.0 3.25
$0 270 Frankie Montas 378.5 3.23
$0 271 Drew Thorpe 213.9 3.21
$0 272 Miles Mikolas 505.1 3.21
$0 273 Randy Vasquez 429.5 3.20
$0 274 Mason Black 138.6 3.20
$0 275 Carson Whisenhunt 87.9 3.20
$0 276 Josiah Gray 389.3 3.18
$0 277 Bobby Miller 184.6 3.17
$0 278 Jonathan Cannon 345.3 3.16
$0 279 José Urquidy 355.5 3.16
$0 280 Carson Seymour 85.0 3.12
$0 281 Colton Gordon 198.2 3.11
$0 282 Tyler Anderson 460.9 3.09
$0 283 Jake Irvin 450.2 3.07
$0 284 Brandon Young 138.6 3.05
$0 285 Kyle Freeland 498.6 3.01
$0 286 Caden Dana 241.9 3.00
$0 287 Chase Dollander 359.2 2.99
$0 288 Cal Quantrill 323.1 2.95
$0 289 Walker Buehler 365.6 2.93
$0 290 Tomoyuki Sugano 426.0 2.89
$0 291 Taijuan Walker 329.1 2.74
$0 292 McCade Brown 184.9 2.70
$0 293 Germán Márquez 356.3 2.66
$0 294 Austin Gomber 334.0 2.59
$0 295 Gunnar Hoglund 115.2 2.53
$0 296 Tanner Gordon 276.2 2.45
$0 297 Antonio Senzatela 192.2 2.00

Chad Young’s SP Tiered Rankings for 4×4 Ottoneu

Ranking starting pitchers is probably harder than any other position. There are so many names to rank and there is so much to rank them on. Do you trust projections? Was that second half surge because of that new pitch? Or should we remember that correlation does not imply causation? And so I always struggle with this list. This year, I found the top of the list relatively straightforward, but really struggled with a huge swath of names from about 20-70.

Read the rest of this entry »


Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered 1B/Util Rankings Follow Up

Seattle Mariners first baseman Josh Naylor (12) hits an RBI single against the Toronto Blue Jays in the first inning during game seven of the ALCS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Rogers Centre.
Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

We are winding down towards the end of this series and we have landed on (in my opinion) one of the least interesting of these “follow up” articles. The cross-format comparisons are most interesting at positions where variations in player values are the greatest. Shortstop or outfield, for example, are full of guys who run, guys who mash, guys who do a bit of both. There are players at a lot of positions who stay on the field thanks to their defense, creating an opportunity for volume-based value that their bat doesn’t carry alone. But at first base and util? Not so much.

Read the rest of this entry »