Sep 24, 2025; West Sacramento, California, USA; Athletics shortstop Jacob Wilson (5) jogs towards the dugout before the start of the game against the Houston Astros at Sutter Health Park. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images
Changelog
12/22/2024 – First Release
Ranking Methodology
ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
$ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net.
Shortstop Overview
The shortstop position is once again the deepest position in fantasy from top to bottom. There is a great mix of talent from old, reliable vets to young up and comers. However, a lot of the position has eligibility at other spots and there are big drop offs through out.
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Today’s Discussion
This is the initial set of rankings and they will change as more information becomes available and as I update my projections throughout the offseason and draft season. Players and writeups will be added and changed as we move through the weeks leading up to Spring Training, but please jump into the comments to discuss who I might have whiffed on!
12/31/2025 – Updated ADPs, more capsules, and some reranking.
12/24/2025 – Updated ADPs — rerank and more capsules coming between Christmas and New Year’s!
12/16/2025 – First Release
Ranking Methodology
ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
$ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net.
Hello, and welcome to the 2026 3B rankings! Third base has been a weird position for a while, one that fits a bunch of different types of players; there’s no one archetype that works above all the others. That makes ranking them a little tough, but hey, at least Nos. 1 and 2 were layups (that’s a basketball term). For now, we’ve just got write-ups on the top quartet of third basemen, with plenty more to follow.
One quick note regarding the bottom tier, those in Free Agent Limbo: I don’t actually think those are the least-valuable fantasy third basemen. What I do think is that their value is dependent on where they sign. Will they sign as a regular? A platoon bat? Will they even maintain 3B eligibility? That’s all up in the air for the free agents not named Bregman or Suárez.
See you next week with more write-ups and maybe some shuffling!
There’s little that Ramírez is yet to accomplish in MLB, though winning MVP might forever be his white whale. (He’d also love to go 40/40 at least once, I’m sure.) His counting stats at the plate took a little bit of a step back as he had even more wear and tear than usual in 2025, but he’s showing no long-term signs of slowing down and continues to command the zone while not striking out as well as anyone.
At the onset of the 2025 season it looked like Caminero would be missing some valuable plate appearances as he was frequently replaced for defense, but he improved enough at third to actually play full games with the Rays leading as the season went on. The massive homer power is Caminero’s calling card and considering his precocious youth combined with a lack of big swing-and-miss, the sky is the limit. He was weirdly average away from Steinbrenner Field but I don’t have much concern there since his BABIP was a ridiculously low .197 on the road.
Enjoy the 3B eligibility while you can! Jazz won’t be sniffing the hot corner any time soon after couping DJ LeMahieu out of a roster spot so he could move back to second base, and he responded with a career year despite missing time with an oblique strain. Coming off back-to-back almost-fully-healthy seasons in which he proved he’s got star output to go with his star-level skills, here’s hoping we can finally see what 150 games of Jazz looks like.
Are Garcia’s gains at the plate legit? The Royals sure think so, rewarding his breakout with a five-year, $57.5 million extension. He’s got almost three years of service time but is still just 25 years old, so it’s entirely possible we haven’t seen the best of him yet. He’s more of a “jack of all trades, master of none” than a guy who will give you insane production in a particular category, but there’s .300/20/40 potential in there.
The very definition of borderline between the top tier and second tier, Machado continues to perform like a metronome. The only thing that concerns me is Father Time’s undefeated record, and Machado is entering his age-33 season. His bat speed is still excellent but it has been going down each year for the three years it’s been tracked by Statcast, so it’s not as if he’s completely ageless.
I want Riley to go back to being great, and I’ll concede that it’s entirely possible if not likely that injuries are part of the explanation for his wRC+ declining each year since his career-high in 2022. But we can’t just ignore that in 2025 he walked less and whiffed and struck out more. This is about as high as I’m comfortable putting him.
Paredes would be higher on this list if I was fully confident that he’s (a) fully healthy after rushing back from a horrible hamstring strain and (b) definitely an Astro in 2026. So much of Paredes’ value comes from his elite ability to pull the ball in the air, and there’s nowhere better to do that than Daikin Park. But with the Astros probably needing to offload an infielder to open up DH for Yordan Alvarez and Paredes’ name being the most-often mentioned, I’m just wary enough to ding him a bit.
Bregman could move up or down this tier depending on where he signs, because like Paredes, ballpark is pretty important for him, though not as crucially so. He had a horrible end to his season after rushing back from a quad injury, and I don’t expect that to continue after a normal offseason, even if he’s not quite as good as he was to start the season with Boston. The shape of Bregman’s career will be interesting to follow, because he’s already been so many different types of hitters.
Muncy has been as good as ever on a rate basis in the last two seasons, but I’m conscious of his age (35) and the fact that he’s only played 173 games in the last two seasons. Plus, he had his worst showing ever against lefties, albeit in only 80 plate appearances, and he could continue to be shielded from them by Miguel Rojas and Alex Call.
Paredes, Bregman, Suárez: the Three Horsemen (look, there’s not a fourth, okay?) of “I really hope they’re playing in a ballpark good for them.” Suárez’s second act in Seattle went even worse than his first one after absolutely mashing in Arizona, and it’s pretty clear to me that he needs a ballpark where the ball will carry well and give his dead-pull swing some extra juice.
This is a pretty aggressive placement for a guy who’s yet to be fully healthy for a season, I’ll admit. But he’s been rock solid when he’s been able to play in 2024 and 2025, and his expected metrics in 2024 — slugging especially — were so good that I think there’s another level in there.
2025 Breakouts
If they continue in 2026, they'll be fantasy stars.
ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
$ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net.
Catcher Overview
The catcher position is about as deep as it’s been after an influx of young talent to the position over the last few seasons. The additions of young studs to the crop of older, aging veterans give the position some beef, but also add to it’s volatility as we have seen with a number of the players who entered the Majors over previous seasons have shown us.
The biggest issue with the position is dependent on the format you are drafting for. In shallower one catcher leagues, it’s often best to wait as long as possible unless a player you covet drops. In deeper two catcher formats, the back end the pool offers negative value giving you more reasons to draft one or both of your catchers early. Knowing how your format and league values the position is crucial to your draft strategy.
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Today’s Discussion
This is the initial set of rankings and they will change as more information becomes available and as I update my projections throughout the offseason and draft season. Players and writeups will be added and changed as we move through the weeks leading up to Spring Training, but please jump into the comments to discuss who I might have whiffed on!
Cal Raleigh is coming off of an historic season where he hit the most home runs ever by a catcher and was the #2 player on the player rater. There is no where to go but down but even with regression, he should be the first catcher off the board. He is a great bet for power and counting categories, but the contact skills gives him an average floor is much lower than what we saw in 2025.
A year after his breakout season, William Contreras took a step back, hitting just .260/.355/.399 with 17 home runs and six stolen bases. Some of that regression was likely injury related as he played through a finger fracture that is now been fixed through surgery. He should rebound now that he is healthy and return to being an elite option.
Shea Langeliers has made massive gains in each of the last two seasons in contact skills going from 78% to 83% to 85% while not sacrificing power or his approach. Hitting in Sacramento is a dream location for him and the A’s should continue to improve.
You can make the argument that Ben Rice should be the #2 catcher in fantasy since he isn’t actually catching this season. He could have the most plate appearances for a cathereligible player if the Yankees do not bring in anyone to compete with him. His combination of power and contact skills along with the home park could make for a massive season.
Drake Baldwin is coming off of winning Rookie of the Year in the National League and there is more upside in the bat. He showcased his great approach and contact skills, but with a launch angle tweak, he could have a massive breakout. His bat speed, average exit velocity, and hard hit percentage were all in the top 85 percentile so if he could elevate some, he could push his homers in the mid twenties which would be some nice upside for a high floor catcher.
Agustin Ramirez showed a better hit tool than expected and the power was as advertised. We can’t sleep on the speed, either, as he went a very solid 16-for-19 on the basepaths. He is not a very good catcher defensively and likely will lose eligibility there at some point, but that is a problem for future seasons. He will get extra PAs at DH which will allow him to rack up plate appearances, but the Marlins supporting cast is meager which will hurt the runs and RBIs.
Hunter Goodman has elite power but the approach and swing and miss can be a problem for him. Hitting in Colorado will help because of the BABIP inflation and the lack of competition for the role, but the batting average downside is real and he will regress there in 2026.
Being the old man of the group isn’t a bad thing. Salvador Perez is about as consistent as can be. He has back-to-back healthy season with at least 27 home runs and 100 RBIs. The ceiling may not be as high as the rest of the tier, but you don’t get much safer than Sal.
Last Year’s Favorites
Last year’s draft favorites that could jump up a tier!
When Yainer Diaz hit 23 home runs in just 377 plate appearances in 2023, people thought a full season breakout was coming, but in the last two seasons he has shown that power output was likely an outlier. He still has a high floor because of his fantastic contact ability, but the ceiling dropping a bit is why he is no longer in higher tiers.
Adley Rutschman lost a lot of time last year to injury and really struggled when he was on the field. If healthy, then he is likely to rebound to the levels we saw in 2023 and 2024 at least. There is still upside in the bat from his prospect pedigree and initial call up, but we can no longer project he will automatically get there.
Will Smith is about as safe as they come. You can can bank on high teens/low 20s home runs with a good average and great counting stats hitting in the top half of the Dodgers lineup. He actually had the second best barrel rate and hard hit percentages of his career, but it didn’t translate into more power. The downside is that he will never accumulate like other catchers because Ohtani blocks off the designated hitter spot.
Safe Backstops
Guys that do not have a ton of upside, but aren’t going to hurt you
Alejandro Kirk makes a lot of contact and there is some power in the bat, but that makes it a high floor profile rather than one that is super enticing for shallower one catcher formats.
Ivan Herrera won’t even be catcher eligible in most formats because he missed so much time with an elbow injury. He is expected to catch some, but will likely reside mostly at DH. The lack of pop limits his ceiling, but there is nice floor as long as he is healthy and he should be able to accumulate a lot of plate appearances at DH.
When Gabriel Moreno hit four home runs in the 2023 postseason people got really excited that a massive breakout was coming. That was a mistake, but he is a great defensive catcher with a very good hit tool. He did show a bit more pop with a career-high .433 SLG and 9 HRs, but his .281 AVG points to his high floor as even his career-low .266 from 2023 was tied for 5th-highest at Catcher (min. 350 PA).
Samuel Basallo is a top tier prospect that made his debut in 2025. There is a ton of power in the bat and the question is whether he will make enough contact to unlock at the Major League level. the minor league numbers say he should, but there may be some growing pains, but the upside is tremendous. With the addition of Pete Alonso, he will need to hit to keep his spot, but I believe he will.
Francisco Alvarez has been great when he is on the field, but he has struggled with that since 2023. If he can stay healthy, there is 25-30 homer power. There are few catchers that have his power profile at the position, but he is best served for shallower formats where there is replacement value on the wire.
Austin Wells is built for Yankees Stadium where he can pull the ball in the air to the short porch. He makes better in-zone contact than his average suggests, so there is a chance that he could begin to make gains there, but I wouldn’t project that.
Deep League Intrigue
Most useful for 2-Catcher leagues but have the talent to jump up a tier or two
I love J.T. Realmuto, but the skills have been degrading for a while and unless he ends up back in Philly, the park and lineup are likely going to be worse than it was for him in 2025. There is still a safe floor up the ceiling is lowering quickly.
If Tyler Stephenson had not missed so much time with injury, his line would have looked a lot more similar to his good 2024 season as opposed to his paltry 2023 one. However, his contact skills took a hit with his swinging strike rate rising and his Z-Contact dropping to its lowest mark of his career. He should bounceback some if healthy, but there are red flags here.
Sean Murphy has fallen off since coming to Atlanta and he likely isn’t regaining his pre-Braves form, but maybe if he gets a change of scenery via trade, he could become closer to the guy we saw in Oakland.
Carter Jensen is a top 50 prospect that debuted in 2025 and looked the part in a very small sample. The problem is playing time. With Sal Perez locked in behind the plate and a number of players that will be rotating at DH in Kansas City, it’s hard to find 400 plate appearance for the rookie. If he can find those plate appearances, then there is some upside for a guy that went 20/10 with a .290/.377/.501 line at AAA last season.
Kyle Teel is a former top prospect, but he is more of a real life asset that a fantasy one. His power profile projects him to be more of a teens homer guy and there isn’t a great hit tool in the profile either. He will accumulate some, but he will also be sharing the position.
Harry Ford is a top 50 prospect who debuted in 2025, but was only given eight plate appearances in a small cup of coffee in the Majors. The 22-year-old was fantastic in AAA in 2025, hitting .283/.408/.460 with 16 home runs and seven stolen bases in 458 plate appearances. He was moved this offseason to Washington where he could find himself on the opening day roster, sharing duties with Ruiz. There is some decent upside, but his power is still developing some.
There isn’t a lot of upside in Freddy Fermin’s bat, but he has shown he can be a high floor accumulator when given playing time and now that he has escaped Sal Perez’s shadow and moved onto sunny San Diego, he should just get that.
Injuries derailed Keibert Ruiz’s season in 2025 and now there is competition for the role with Ford being acquired via trade this offseason. There wasn’t a ton of upside before and now there is a lower floor if he cannot accumulate as easily.
Edgar Quero is a former top 100 prospect, but he shares the role with Teel and is not as good of a defender. There isn’t much of a carrying tool for fantasy in the profile so he needs to get a lot of plate appearances in order to accumulate.
I understand why some people love Bo Naylor. While a good pop-good approach-no hit tool profile is not usually a problem in fantasy, but when you are on a team that loves Austin Hedges for his defense so much that you get stuck under 415 plate appearances, then the low ceiling/low floor combo isn’t as enticing.
Patrick Bailey is a premium defender behind the plate, but the offensive skills have never caught up to the defense. However, he will accumulate because he does not miss any games.
Jonah Heim’s value will be dependent on where he signs.
Dalton Rushing has talent, but he needs a trade more than anyone in baseball. He will never supplant Will Smith and with Ohtani on the team, he won’t get PAs at DH.
Danny Jansen has never lived up to the early career hype, but he will play and can accumulate for deeper formats as long as he’s healthy.
Joe Mack is a top 50 prospect that has power and is fantastic behind the plate. However, he really struggles with contact. His defense should prevent him from becoming a AAAA player, but there is a chance he spends the entire season in AAA trying to improve his hit tool.
Jeferson Quero is one of the Brewers top prospects and will be ready for the Majors at some point this season, but with Contreras in tow, I don’t know if there will be enough plate appearances to matter in 2026.
José Ramírez is the only third baseman so far in 2025 to post positive value in each traditional roto category. That’s incredible, and it’s the reason J-Ram is in the mix as the best third baseman in the league every single season. Manny Machado isn’t a base-stealer, but he’s returned positive value in every other category. Junior Caminero, Rafael Devers, Eugenio Suárez, and Isaac Paredes are the third basemen with three positive value categories:
Third Basemen With Highest Positive Category Value Count
Name
mAVG
mRBI
mR
mSB
mHR
Current Dollar Value
Positive Category Count
José Ramírez
$5.03
$0.45
$1.98
$12.87
$2.50
$37.35
5
Manny Machado
$4.66
$2.61
$3.20
-$0.26
$1.78
$26.49
4
Junior Caminero
-$3.45
$4.04
$2.39
-$2.13
$6.11
$21.47
3
Rafael Devers
-$2.92
$6.91
$2.39
-$4.63
$1.78
$18.03
3
Eugenio Suárez
-$3.77
$10.50
$3.60
-$4.63
$11.90
$32.10
3
Isaac Paredes
-$2.34
$0.10
$0.77
-$5.26
$3.22
$11.00
3
According to the FanGraphs Auction Calculator
Each of these players had a great first half and has probably made the fantasy managers’ rostering them have great first halves as well. Swap Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in for Isaac Paredes, and you’re looking at the top six third basemen at the half. Which of these, if any, surprises you? In this article, I compare my third base preseason rank predictions with mid-year actuals.
NOTE: data reflects games played through Sunday, July 20th.
I posted a preview of this in today’s SP Chart, but even that Top 75 has since changed so please use this as the reference going forward. Please feel free to post your questions & comments below, I’ll be in there responding all weekend. These aren’t meant o be ironclad through the rest of the season, any rankings update is a 4-6 week outlook for me so I’m not yet concerned about potential workload shutdowns and things of that nature. Additionally, this ranking specifically might have more of a 1-3 week shelf life with the Trade Deadline looming so I will run another update shortly after that if there are substantive changes across the league. I say “if” just because the deadline could be a dud if too many teams think they’re in it and no one really sells, but I don’t expect that as there should be enough true sellers already identified to facilitate some real movement.
Injured guys aren’t ranked outside a couple who are close to returning if I recall correctly. You can ask about someone, but if they’re not due back in the next week or two, I won’t really have much insight as it’ll be dependent on their health & return. There may be a few 6th-starter types ranked here as opposed to making sure I got 5 guys per team in the Top 150 as we don’t really need every Rockie on the list.
The reliever landscape has faced some of the biggest changes in recent years as many teams have gone away from anointing a single guy to be their closer, instead embracing committees where they trust a number of relievers to close the game out in the 9th. The committee strategy often includes putting their best guy in a fireman role meaning he could come in for any sticky situation from about the 6th inning on. This is undoubtedly a smart way to run a bullpen from a “real life” standpoint, but it can be rough on us fantasy folks where Saves remain a prominent category.
Three nights before the first game of the 2025 MLB season in Tokyo, the Cubs played the Angels in a Spring Breakout game in Arizona. Those in attendance got to see Angels top pitching prospect Caden Dana struggle to make it out of the first inning, Cubs outfield hopeful Kevin Alcántara slug a home run, and 21-year-old catcher Moises Ballesteros leg out a double. Matt Shaw was not there.
Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP
You can find all of the information about the format and methodology in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.
Ranking starting pitching is an absolutely massive beast to tackle (seriously, I have no idea how Nick Pollack does it). And it feels like our understanding of what makes a good pitcher is constantly evolving as we continue to break new ground with all the publicly available data. That also means there are more breakouts to chase than ever before as so many pitchers are one or two tweaks away from really unlocking their pitch arsenal. That makes ranking pitchers particularly tricky because projection systems often have a very hard time picking up on those arsenal or stuff changes without a ton of data to back them up.
If you want to pay up for established, high-end options, there are plenty to choose from, just remember that pitchers break down more often than any other position. That means investing a large portion of your budget into your pitching staff will always carry some amount of risk. Luckily, if you choose to pass on the best pitchers on the market, there’s a large middle tier that you can build a perfectly productive pitching staff with. There’s probably 40-50 guys in this group that have good projections but won’t break the bank to roster. Once you’re past those top 60-70 pitchers, you’re getting into the lower tiers where all sorts of warts and question marks abound. Here, you’re simply searching for potential breakouts, bounce backs, or bulk innings.
Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss a few outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.
The biggest difference in my rankings is where I put Wheeler. He’s undoubtedly been the most valuable pitcher in Ottoneu over the last four years purely on the massive amount of points he’s generated, even if his per inning rate hasn’t been the highest. That longevity is incredibly valuable, though he’s getting up there in age presenting some risk to his profile. In addition, the projections for him in 2025 just aren’t that rosy, which was enough for me to drop him a tier.
I’ve got lower evaluations on Yamamoto, Valdez, Gibert, Burnes, and Kirby. Yamamoto still has workload concerns after he wasn’t able make through his first season in the States unscathed. Valdez doesn’t have a high enough ceiling for me to put him in a higher tier. I personally love Gilbert and Kirby, but the former has had issues maintaining his strikeout rate and the latter gives up a few too many home runs, which hampers him in this format. Burnes righted the ship after scuffling for a lot of the season last year, but I’m concerned that it wasn’t just a blimp but a portent for his eventual decline.
I’m higher on Gray and Steele because I believe in the former’s strikeout rate improvements and the latter has provided consistent home run suppression for three seasons now.
Chad thought he’d be the low man on Sasaki but here I am putting him a tier lower. I get the hype, but there are enough concerns about his fastball shape, his injury history, and the transition from Japan to the US that I’m pumping the brakes just a little bit. I’m also lower on Gallen, Lopez, and Imanaga and that’s mostly due to some lower projections capping their ceilings a bit.
I like Greene, Woo, Miller, Houck, and Sanchez a good deal more than Chad and in all of their cases, I’m a believer in the breakouts they all enjoyed in 2024 and think they’ve got even more room to grow.
We’re getting to the end of the middle tier with these two tiers and the end of the truly useful pitchers you can count on for consistent production.
I’m lower on Nola (read why), Williams, and Rodon but there are a ton of guys here that I’m higher on and it’s either because I believe in a skill change they showed last year or their projections paint a promising picture for 2025 or that they’ve put an injury behind them and I’m banking on a return to form.
For these lower tier guys, it’s nearly impossible to find any agreement between me and Chad and that can mostly be chalked up to differences in risk management and our preferences in how we fill out the back end of our rosters. Every one of these guys has a wart or two (or three or four), and you can nitpick about which wart is more important than another, but if you’re relying on any of these guys for significant innings in 2025, something has either gone very well for the individual pitcher or very poorly for the rest of your fantasy team.
This was exhausting. We have so much data we can analyze on pitchers and so many people are so good at doing that. And I find myself ranking pitchers and wondering what, exactly, I bring to the table. The biggest thing, to be honest, is my Ottoneu knowledge. There are a number of people out there who are great pitching analysts. There are great lists for re-draft. And for dynasty. But the combination of Ottoneu’s scoring systems, the keeper-but-not-dynasty nature, and the Ottoneu economics make this a bit of a unique list.
Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF
You can find all of the information about the format and methodology in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.
Here are few more notes about my process:
Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and the ZiPS25 projections that were posted last year, not the updated 2025 projections that Dan Szymborski is currently rolling out.
P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.
Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss the outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.
I understand Chad’s concerns about Devers’ shoulder, but his track record of production speaks for itself and justifies the premium you’ll pay over Riley. Devers managed to produce a 147 wRC+ through August with his balky shoulder and only really broke down in September. It’s possible the shoulder will continue to be an issue this year, but it’s just as likely that an offseason of rest might have allowed the joint to heal. I’m fine taking that risk based on his history.
I like Chisholm, but not as much as Chad does, and I think there’s some Yankees-fueled helium that’s inflating his perceived value. Yes, he increased his hard hit rate from 37.1% with the Marlins to 48.5% in New York but his barrel rate dropped by more than three points. Despite hitting fewer barrelled batted balls, nearly a quarter of the fly balls he hit as a Yankee left the park, an unsustainable home run rate that fueled a lot of his production in New York.
Lewis couldn’t replicate the scorching hot breakout he enjoyed in 2023 last year. Some of those struggles were out of his control — his BABIP fell by 100 points — but he also lost a bit of contact quality on his batted balls and his 21.1% home run rate was probably always a little unstable. I expect better things from him in 2025, but there’s always the looming injury concerns and I’m a bit worried about how his body is going to hold up if the Twins actually decide to move him to second base like they’ve talked about this offseason.
I originally had Suárez and Arenado a tier higher but they both have pretty big question marks surrounding them. For the former, it’s his streaky performance that gives me pause. Yes, Suárez was one of the best hitters in baseball during the second half of the season last year, but his first half was atrocious and it’s hard to tell which version of him you’re going to get. For Arenado, the questions about where he’ll eventually end up after the Cardinals inevitably trade him this offseason give me some pause.
