The reliever landscape has faced some of the biggest changes in recent years as many teams have gone away from anointing a single guy to be their closer, instead embracing committees where they trust a number of relievers to close the game out in the 9th. The committee strategy often includes putting their best guy in a fireman role meaning he could come in for any sticky situation from about the 6th inning on. This is undoubtedly a smart way to run a bullpen from a “real life” standpoint, but it can be rough on us fantasy folks where Saves remain a prominent category.
Three nights before the first game of the 2025 MLB season in Tokyo, the Cubs played the Angels in a Spring Breakout game in Arizona. Those in attendance got to see Angels top pitching prospect Caden Dana struggle to make it out of the first inning, Cubs outfield hopeful Kevin Alcántara slug a home run, and 21-year-old catcher Moises Ballesteros leg out a double. Matt Shaw was not there.
Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP
You can find all of the information about the format and methodology in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.
Ranking starting pitching is an absolutely massive beast to tackle (seriously, I have no idea how Nick Pollack does it). And it feels like our understanding of what makes a good pitcher is constantly evolving as we continue to break new ground with all the publicly available data. That also means there are more breakouts to chase than ever before as so many pitchers are one or two tweaks away from really unlocking their pitch arsenal. That makes ranking pitchers particularly tricky because projection systems often have a very hard time picking up on those arsenal or stuff changes without a ton of data to back them up.
If you want to pay up for established, high-end options, there are plenty to choose from, just remember that pitchers break down more often than any other position. That means investing a large portion of your budget into your pitching staff will always carry some amount of risk. Luckily, if you choose to pass on the best pitchers on the market, there’s a large middle tier that you can build a perfectly productive pitching staff with. There’s probably 40-50 guys in this group that have good projections but won’t break the bank to roster. Once you’re past those top 60-70 pitchers, you’re getting into the lower tiers where all sorts of warts and question marks abound. Here, you’re simply searching for potential breakouts, bounce backs, or bulk innings.
Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss a few outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.
The biggest difference in my rankings is where I put Wheeler. He’s undoubtedly been the most valuable pitcher in Ottoneu over the last four years purely on the massive amount of points he’s generated, even if his per inning rate hasn’t been the highest. That longevity is incredibly valuable, though he’s getting up there in age presenting some risk to his profile. In addition, the projections for him in 2025 just aren’t that rosy, which was enough for me to drop him a tier.
I’ve got lower evaluations on Yamamoto, Valdez, Gibert, Burnes, and Kirby. Yamamoto still has workload concerns after he wasn’t able make through his first season in the States unscathed. Valdez doesn’t have a high enough ceiling for me to put him in a higher tier. I personally love Gilbert and Kirby, but the former has had issues maintaining his strikeout rate and the latter gives up a few too many home runs, which hampers him in this format. Burnes righted the ship after scuffling for a lot of the season last year, but I’m concerned that it wasn’t just a blimp but a portent for his eventual decline.
I’m higher on Gray and Steele because I believe in the former’s strikeout rate improvements and the latter has provided consistent home run suppression for three seasons now.
Chad thought he’d be the low man on Sasaki but here I am putting him a tier lower. I get the hype, but there are enough concerns about his fastball shape, his injury history, and the transition from Japan to the US that I’m pumping the brakes just a little bit. I’m also lower on Gallen, Lopez, and Imanaga and that’s mostly due to some lower projections capping their ceilings a bit.
I like Greene, Woo, Miller, Houck, and Sanchez a good deal more than Chad and in all of their cases, I’m a believer in the breakouts they all enjoyed in 2024 and think they’ve got even more room to grow.
We’re getting to the end of the middle tier with these two tiers and the end of the truly useful pitchers you can count on for consistent production.
I’m lower on Nola (read why), Williams, and Rodon but there are a ton of guys here that I’m higher on and it’s either because I believe in a skill change they showed last year or their projections paint a promising picture for 2025 or that they’ve put an injury behind them and I’m banking on a return to form.
For these lower tier guys, it’s nearly impossible to find any agreement between me and Chad and that can mostly be chalked up to differences in risk management and our preferences in how we fill out the back end of our rosters. Every one of these guys has a wart or two (or three or four), and you can nitpick about which wart is more important than another, but if you’re relying on any of these guys for significant innings in 2025, something has either gone very well for the individual pitcher or very poorly for the rest of your fantasy team.
This was exhausting. We have so much data we can analyze on pitchers and so many people are so good at doing that. And I find myself ranking pitchers and wondering what, exactly, I bring to the table. The biggest thing, to be honest, is my Ottoneu knowledge. There are a number of people out there who are great pitching analysts. There are great lists for re-draft. And for dynasty. But the combination of Ottoneu’s scoring systems, the keeper-but-not-dynasty nature, and the Ottoneu economics make this a bit of a unique list.
Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF
You can find all of the information about the format and methodology in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.
Here are few more notes about my process:
Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and the ZiPS25 projections that were posted last year, not the updated 2025 projections that Dan Szymborski is currently rolling out.
P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.
Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss the outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.
I understand Chad’s concerns about Devers’ shoulder, but his track record of production speaks for itself and justifies the premium you’ll pay over Riley. Devers managed to produce a 147 wRC+ through August with his balky shoulder and only really broke down in September. It’s possible the shoulder will continue to be an issue this year, but it’s just as likely that an offseason of rest might have allowed the joint to heal. I’m fine taking that risk based on his history.
I like Chisholm, but not as much as Chad does, and I think there’s some Yankees-fueled helium that’s inflating his perceived value. Yes, he increased his hard hit rate from 37.1% with the Marlins to 48.5% in New York but his barrel rate dropped by more than three points. Despite hitting fewer barrelled batted balls, nearly a quarter of the fly balls he hit as a Yankee left the park, an unsustainable home run rate that fueled a lot of his production in New York.
Lewis couldn’t replicate the scorching hot breakout he enjoyed in 2023 last year. Some of those struggles were out of his control — his BABIP fell by 100 points — but he also lost a bit of contact quality on his batted balls and his 21.1% home run rate was probably always a little unstable. I expect better things from him in 2025, but there’s always the looming injury concerns and I’m a bit worried about how his body is going to hold up if the Twins actually decide to move him to second base like they’ve talked about this offseason.
I originally had Suárez and Arenado a tier higher but they both have pretty big question marks surrounding them. For the former, it’s his streaky performance that gives me pause. Yes, Suárez was one of the best hitters in baseball during the second half of the season last year, but his first half was atrocious and it’s hard to tell which version of him you’re going to get. For Arenado, the questions about where he’ll eventually end up after the Cardinals inevitably trade him this offseason give me some pause.
If it feels like the balance between 1B and 3B is off this year, you can blame the Toronto Blue Jays. Giving Vlad Guerrero, Jr., 12 games at 3B was enough to give him eligibility for this year and move him off that list and onto this one. That doubled up the top tier here and pushed everyone else down a bit. And that, coupled with the degradation of the 1B position that I discussed yesterday, leaves 3B feeling deeper than 1B.
Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | OF
You can find all of the information about the format and methodology in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.
Here are few more notes about my process:
Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and the ZiPS25 projections that were posted last year, not the updated 2025 projections that Dan Szymborski is currently rolling out.
P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.
Despite some of the big names populating the top of this position group, offensive production from first basemen has hit a nadir over the last few years — collectively first basemen produced a 104 wRC+ in 2024, the worst mark for the position since 1963. If you miss out on one of the top options at the position, you’re probably stuck with a guy you might need to platoon or with some other flaw. It also means that Util-only players like Ohtani, Ozuna, or Pederson can reasonably take the place of a second 1B on your roster if you don’t mind the inflexibility they bring to your lineup.
Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss the outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.
Here’s the cliff. There’s a pretty dramatic step down in production from Olson to Alonso but I think I’m more willing to pay for one of these mid-tier 1Bs than Chad is. That’s why I’ve got Walker, Casas, and Naylor all a tier higher than he does.
Ozuna is a really tough one to rank. His positional limitations will obviously hamper your lineup, but his outstanding production is undeniable. Like Chad, I prefer to have my Util open to flex in whomever I want, but there are maybe 18-20 guys who are projected to post a higher P/G than Ozuna is.
I’ve got some real concerns about Díaz’s ability to continue to produce at a high level outside of Tropicana Field. He gets so much more production out of his high groundball rate than you’d expect thanks to the turf inside the Rays’ ruined ballpark, but I’m worried that he won’t enjoy the same success now that the team will have to play in an outdoor Single-A ballpark this year.
Given a full-time role with the Cubs last year, Busch had a breakout season where he posted the 10th best wOBA among first basemen with at least 400 PAs. Losing 2B and 3B eligibility definitely hurts his overall value, but he’s serviceable as a 1B-only and there are certainly worse options at the position.
I’m not sure what to expect from Encarnacion-Strand. A wrist injury derailed his season last year and he’s only really accumulated half a season’s worth of plate appearances in the big leagues across the last two years. And the Reds seem intent on accumulating as many infielders as they can, which raises some playing time questions for CES and the other corner infielders on their roster. I’m fine paying a bit for his power potential, but I wouldn’t pay a premium with so many questions still surrounding him.
I was looking forward to this list and it turned out to be pretty uninspiring. Even while merging in the utility-only bats like Shohei Ohtani and Marcell Ozuna, this group isn’t as exciting as 1B used to be. For years it felt like a necessity to have two 1B to fill 1B and Util, because those were the biggest boppers. It doesn’t feel as true today.
Chad and I tackled the two largest position groups to start off these rankings, so naturally, we’re starting off this week with the smallest and most straight forward: catcher.
Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | MI | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | MI | OF
You can find all of the information about the format and methodology in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.
Here are few more notes about my process:
Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and the ZiPS25 projections that were posted last year, not the updated 2025 projections that Dan Szymborski is currently rolling out.
P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.
Catcher is the awkward step-child of your fantasy roster — you have to invite them to the family reunion but no one is really excited to see them once they’re there. If you’re able to roster one of the top options, you’re probably pretty happy with their production; if you’re not willing to commit that much budget space to the position, there are plenty of cheap options to find if you wait.
Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss the outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.
With catcher being such a unique position where your catcher may only play in two-thirds of his team’s games in any given week, regular playing time is at a premium. So when a player is eligible at catcher in fantasy, but is regularly playing other positions like first base or designated hitter, and therefore getting more playing time than if he was stuck behind the plate, it’s a slight competitive advantage over other players at the position. That’s the main reason why I have Willson Contreras and Perez ranked a tier higher than Chad. I’m willing to pay that premium to get their level of production in my lineup without having to worry about a replacement level catcher to make up the ~30–40 games my primary catcher will miss.
In his first full season as the Cardinals backstop, Herrera impressed with a .351 wOBA and excellent batted ball peripherals to back up that performance. He’s projected to start the season in a timeshare with Pedro Pagés, but I’m willing to bet that his bat will quickly prove that he’s the superior option and will wind up the primary catcher by midseason.
After a promising rookie campaign in 2023, Alvarez followed it up with a weird season in ‘24. His wOBA was exactly the same but his power output fell pretty significantly and his BABIP increased by a nice 69 points. The root causes were a jump in his groundball rate by more than eight points and a barrel rate that was nearly cut in half. Even though his overall production stayed stable, the shape of it is a bit concerning and has me worried about his potential ceiling.
From the giant lists covering OF and MI to one of the shorter and least interesting lists – catcher. Last year, I was pretty excited about the catcher position and this year, I am not. In the intro to my rankings last year, I called out a number of young catchers that were emerging or ready to break out that left me feeling confident I could find catcher production. That didn’t so much work out.
