Chad Young’s 2025 Tiered Ottoneu Rankings: Starting Pitchers

Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images

This was exhausting. We have so much data we can analyze on pitchers and so many people are so good at doing that. And I find myself ranking pitchers and wondering what, exactly, I bring to the table. The biggest thing, to be honest, is my Ottoneu knowledge. There are a number of people out there who are great pitching analysts. There are great lists for re-draft. And for dynasty. But the combination of Ottoneu’s scoring systems, the keeper-but-not-dynasty nature, and the Ottoneu economics make this a bit of a unique list.

To make sure this was out in time for you to see it before the keeper deadline (and because of what I said above about all the other sources out there on pitching), I only ranked 180 SP, listing another chunk as “NR” or “not ranked.” Basically, I ranked everyone who was at least in my $0-$1 tier, but the $0 tier I left as a clump. I also made comments only on the pitchers who were in the $1-$2 tier or above.

Also, one important note – there is one pitcher missing from this list: Shohei Ohtani. There are two primary reasons why I left him off. First, I included him on the 1B/Util list so you have a value for him there. Second, I don’t really have a good sense for when he’ll be back. The only updates we have gotten have been kind of vague. Realistically, I would have put Shohei the Pitcher somewhere between his teammates Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki – at the very end of the $28-$35 tier or in the $21-$27 tier. Given the uncertainty today, he would probably be just above Sasaki, if I had to rank him.

And so, without further ado, a list of like 2x more pitchers than you should ever need to think about.

Chad Young’s Tiered Ottoneu SP Rankings
Rank Name Ottoneu Positions Tier Note
1 Tarik Skubal SP $36-$44 Parsing the top three is deciding which nit to pick; do you want the guy with the riskiest injury history?
2 Zack Wheeler SP $36-$44 Or old guy?
3 Paul Skenes SP $36-$44 Or the guy with the shortest track record? But they are all great choices.
4 Logan Gilbert SP $28-$35 He compiled the second most points among SP last year, but was 13th in P/IP, which keeps him out of that top tier.
5 Corbin Burnes SP $28-$35 Reliable, took some steps forward late last year, and seems to be able to limit hits on balls in play.
6 George Kirby SP $28-$35 This feels too high, but I am finding more and more I want reliability and innings and he provides both.
7 Garrett Crochet SP $28-$35 Which is why Crochet is down here instead of solidly top 5 – I just don’t know how much we can trust him to throw the innings I want from my ace.
8 Cole Ragans SP $28-$35 We’re getting deep into a “what risk do you want to take” game – Ragans lost a ton of velo down the stretch last year, but finished healthy.
9 Blake Snell SP $28-$35 Between the 6 man rotation and his track record, you can’t bank more than 130ish innings, but you know those innings will be elite.
10 Framber Valdez SP $28-$35 He lacks the upside of many of his peers, but he’s safe both in terms of high-level production and volume.
11 Tyler Glasnow SP $28-$35 I don’t trust any of the Dodgers to throw many innings, but he is the best of them on a per inning basis.
12 Yoshinobu Yamamoto SP $28-$35 I wrestled with him vs. Strider, but he is healthy today, at least.
13 Michael King SP $21-$27 Did everything we could have asked for last year and then some.
14 Logan Webb SP $21-$27 He isn’t the most exciting pitcher, but limiting HR and throwing a lot of innings is a really valuable combination of skills for Ottoneu points leagues.
15 Shane McClanahan RP $21-$27 When healthy, he has been absolutely elite and there’s no reason to think he won’t be healthy this year.
16 Gerrit Cole SP $21-$27 Last year wasn’t prime Cole, but he was working through/around injury and was still productive.
17 Max Fried SP $21-$27 I don’t love the new home park, but he’s still a very good pitcher.
18 Spencer Strider SP/RP $21-$27 Looking at ADP and other rankings, I am a clear outlier on Strider, but even if he misses a month or two, he will provide elite per inning production for most of the season; the problem is we don’t know if he is healthy or when he is pitching.
19 Chris Sale SP $21-$27 I had him higher earlier in the off-season but the reminder that he was hurt at the end of the year was enough to push him down quite a bit.
20 Jacob DeGrom RP $21-$27 I get that he is the best pitcher on the planet, but I just can’t see assuming more than 75 innings.
21 Dylan Cease SP $21-$27 You will get a lot of strikeouts and should get plenty of innings, but the overall results have been so inconsistent.
22 Pablo Lopez SP $21-$27 Career-high FB velo and he relied on it more in ’24 than the past; not sure that actually helped him though.
23 Zac Gallen SP $21-$27 Having 5 pitches, including three with above 100 Stuff+, feels like a recipe for continuing success.
24 Shota Imanaga SP $21-$27 His start was so good that it kind of overshadowed the fact that he was, overall, good-but-not-elite and had relatively low K-rates, which impacts Ottoneu points value quite a bit.
25 Roki Sasaki SP $21-$27 I am sure I will be the low man on him, but the transition is hard and he’s got some legit injury concerns to keep in mind.
26 Grayson Rodriguez SP $15-$20 I am not sure we have seen Grayson Rodrgiuez’s final form and I am tempted to push him up a tier to buy into the additional upside.
27 Sonny Gray SP $15-$20 I am a little dubious about his ability to repeat a 10+ K/9, but maybe the increased usage of the cutter and decreased four-seamer made the difference?
28 Justin Steele SP $15-$20 High floor, thanks to limited walks and limited HR, and enough K to provide real value.
29 Joe Ryan SP $15-$20 More homers than Steele, more K potential than Steele; probably more upside but less floor?
30 Spencer Schwellenbach SP $15-$20 Six pitches including three with strong Stuff+ ratings and the ability to locate? Yes please.
31 Tanner Bibee SP $15-$20 Four-seamer is his most-used pitch, but slider/curve are his best by Stuff+ and I wonder if fewer FB, more breakers might be a recipe for a secondary breakout.
32 Luis Castillo SP $15-$20 There are pretty clear signs of decline but he is still a very good pitcher and should be plenty reliable.
33 Aaron Nola SP $15-$20 Same, but his home park makes me more nervous.
34 Freddy Peralta SP $15-$20 If he gets a year of good HR/FB rate luck, he could produce $30 in value.
35 Bailey Ober SP $15-$20 The jump from 4.5 PPI arm to 4.9 PPI arm was mostly BABIP-fueled.
36 Hunter Brown SP $15-$20 Does it just feel like Brown is about to put it all together?
37 Kodai Senga RP $15-$20 I think people forget how good he was when he was healthy.
38 Bryce Miller SP $10-$14 I am sure someone will tell me I am crazy to be this low on Miller, but have you looked at the H/R splits, cause I am not totally sure I want to use him on the road.
39 Bryan Woo SP $10-$14 He has the same issues as Miller.
40 Hunter Greene SP $10-$14 He was great last year, but the HR/FB rate and BABIP look primed for some massive regression of the very bad kind.
41 Jared Jones SP $10-$14 His command came and went and this ranking, I think, reflects a guy whose command comes and goes, which makes his ceiling (and his floor) very far from this.
42 Seth Lugo SP $10-$14 Lower upside than many others in this tier, but bankable in a way they are not.
43 Yusei Kikuchi SP $10-$14 Watch the homers; they have been an issue and Angel Stadium is power-friendly.
44 Gavin Williams SP $10-$14 I honestly want to rank him higher but I can’t possibly justify a $15 price so he has to stay in this tier.
45 Reynaldo Lopez SP $10-$14 He’s really a two-pitch pitcher unless he can find a way to make the curve more useful, and that puts a lot of risk in his ability to repeat what might have been an outlier season.
46 Luis Gil SP $10-$14 The underlying skills don’t really look like they back up the ROY performance.
47 Ryan Pepiot SP $10-$14 Stuff+ says he has five pitches at or above 100 and he mixes four of them pretty well; that is intriguing.
48 Cristopher Sanchez SP $10-$14 A little Lugo-like but I don’t know how he keeps the HR-rate so low again even with all the grounders.
49 Carlos Rodon SP $10-$14 He had 6 terrific starts from August 3 to September 3 and wasn’t very good before or after, but that does flash some intriguing upside if he’s more settled and healthy this year.
50 Sandy Alcantara RP $10-$14 It’s not a profile super-well-suited to Ottoneu points leagues and we still have to see if he is back to peak form.
51 Zach Eflin SP $10-$14 I like Eflin, but his profile isn’t an ideal fit for Ottoneu points.
52 Tanner Houck SP $6-$9 You’d like more K, but all those GB go a long way to avoiding point-killing HR.
53 Kumar Rocker SP/RP $6-$9 Consider this a bet on Rocker getting a job out of camp, because otherwise he is probably 20 spots lower.
54 Shane Baz SP $6-$9 I had him higher up but the more I look the more I wonder if I am dreaming on a prospect that no longer exists.
55 Reese Olson SP $6-$9 He could probably use an improved fastball, but he has a deep arsenal and he can make it work.
56 Kevin Gausman SP $6-$9 Things mostly spiraled down last year, so how much do you want to bet on him arresting that fall and turning it back around?
57 Jackson Jobe SP/RP $6-$9 The Tigers say he may not make the rotation, but I don’t see 5 better options.
58 Clarke Schmidt SP $6-$9 He was better than I realized last year and really should be a lock for the rotation this year.
59 Spencer Arrighetti SP $6-$9 He was so hot and cold last year, but I want to take a shot on him and see if he can find consistency and success.
60 Sean Manaea SP $6-$9 There wasn’t an obvious big skills change that led to the shiny ERA in 2024, so when BABIP regresses, he’s probably the same pitcher he was before.
61 Jack Flaherty SP $6-$9 He hasn’t been reliable at all, he lost a ton of velocity down the stretch, and MLB teams seem hesitant to give him a contract.
62 Bowden Francis SP/RP $6-$9 He throws a bunch of pitches, but none look great by the numbers – yet I can’t just ignore how brilliant he was for a stretch last year.
63 Brandon Pfaadt SP $6-$9 He might still be a work in progress, and I wouldn’t expect smooth sailing, but I still like the upside.
64 Drew Rasmussen RP $6-$9 If you have to pay $6-$9 for him, there is RP risk you have to account for; if you get him for less than that, he can be valuable in either role.
65 Jeffrey Springs SP $6-$9 The best version of Springs fills up the zone and gets a lot of whiffs and I am curious if that version returns with a normal off-season.
66 Andrew Painter Util $6-$9 It sounds like you are going to get half a season from him, max, but the talent is there to make that a special half season.
67 Noah Schultz SP $3-$5 There is no reason he can’t be up this year – except maybe the White Sox slow play him in a lost year.
68 Bubba Chandler SP $3-$5 Why is he behind Schultz? I just like Schultz a little more, I guess.
69 Nick Lodolo SP $3-$5 I wish he were in a different park.
70 Taj Bradley SP $3-$5 He’s a HR machine and fixing that might require doing a better job locating his fastball, which is, of course, easier said than done. But not impossible.
71 MacKenzie Gore SP $3-$5 He was surprisingly weak in FGPTs leagues last year, but a lot of that was BABIP.
72 Shane Bieber RP $3-$5 I went back and forth on him and Eury and decided Bieber’s track record has to mean something.
73 Eury Perez RP $3-$5 I want to rank him higher on the talent, but let’s see how healthy he is and when he is actually back before getting ahead of ourselves.
74 Tobias Myers SP/RP $3-$5 I don’t really buy his 2024, but if the price is low enough, he’s worth a look, because I could be wrong.
75 Clay Holmes RP $3-$5 I believe in his arm, but this isn’t always an easy transition and expectations should be tempered.
76 Nathan Eovaldi SP $3-$5 The decline has been very slow, hardly noticable, and I suspect we have at least one more useful season before someone gets stuck holding the bag.
77 Ranger Suarez SP $3-$5 His second half collapse was about walks, BABIP and HR, and I am inclined to believe the 2nd half more than the first.
78 Yu Darvish SP $3-$5 What looks like a solid bounceback on the surface featured his lowest velo since 2016, his lowst K% of his career, the highest LA and HH% of his career…and a career low BABIP.
79 Ryne Nelson SP $3-$5 He showed real gains late last year but right now he looks like the 7th starter.
80 Ronel Blanco SP $3-$5 After the no-no and the near no-no, he was a bit homer-prone and survived on BABIP.
81 Nick Pivetta SP $3-$5 The lack of a job really hurts not only because we don’t know where he will be, but because we have seen what a shortened (or lost) Spring Training can do to an arm.
82 Rhett Lowder SP $3-$5 I won’t say that 36 AAA/MLB IP writes the book on Lowder, but his AA swinging strike rate foreshadowed a decrease in K%.
83 Walker Buehler SP $3-$5 I have health concerns and I have performance concerns and I get the upside, but I just can’t see paying up for him.
84 Michael Wacha SP $3-$5 He’s fairly useful, especially in his power-suppressing home park.
85 Nick Martinez SP/RP $3-$5 He was so good down the stretch, but it’s really hard to see how he maintains that success with his stuff.
86 Brandon Woodruff RP $3-$5 The history on this type of injury isn’t good and we aren’t entirely sure when he’ll be back.
87 Bobby Miller SP $3-$5 I know he is promising, but he was a mess last year and might be like the 9th or 10th starter this year?
88 Jesus Luzardo SP $3-$5 Perhaps the injury that ended his season was also responsible for his poor performance?
89 Luis Severino SP $1-$2 He stepped up in the second half and I think it is worth a gamble that he found something.
90 Luis L. Ortiz SP/RP $1-$2 He has talent and the Guardians know how to unlock talent, and that makes him a worthy end-of-roster type.
91 Matthew Boyd SP $1-$2 He was really good with Cleveland in limited time last year and especially early in the year, Chicago will be more forgiving to a fly ball pitcher.
92 Kyle Bradish SP $1-$2 Bradish has a shot to return in the second half, but I would expect it to be rough – I’ll be looking to buy low next off-season though.
93 Brayan Bello SP $1-$2 He gets grounders but he needs to find a way to limit HR/FB rate somehow.
94 Zebby Matthews SP $1-$2 I know the HR were ugly, but the K and BB are something to build from.
95 David Peterson SP $1-$2 Even with a decent track record, I am not sure we know what he is yet.
96 Tylor Megill SP $1-$2 He was excellent down the stretch at least in part thanks to a changed release point which gives me hope it can stick; I just don’t know when he gets a shot.
97 Dustin May RP $1-$2 Bump him up a tier if he gets a rotation spot.
98 Robbie Ray SP $1-$2 Man, that one season looks like an outlier, huh?
99 Nestor Cortes SP $1-$2 This has nothing to do with his fantasy value, but am I the only baseball fan who just hates his shtick on the mound?
100 Cody Bradford SP $1-$2 There are guys who come after him who are more exciting, but his path is clearer.
101 Edward Cabrera SP $1-$2 We should probably give up on him at some point, right?
102 Sean Burke SP/RP $1-$2 The K are legit intriguing if he can avoid walking everyone.
103 Kutter Crawford SP $1-$2 He’s probably not going to find another gear, but he can be useful in matchups.
104 Travis Sykora SP $1-$2 He could shoot up this list with strong performances in the high minors.
105 Brandon Sproat SP $1-$2 He’s pretty buried but maybe he can force the issue?
106 Quinn Mathews SP $1-$2 Both scouting reports and his performance in AAA seem like a guy who isn’t ready to help just yet.
107 Jacob Misiorowski SP/RP $1-$2 Milwaukee builds pitchers even if sometimes it takes time,
108 Caden Dana SP/RP $1-$2 He had a really impressive minor league season.
109 David Festa SP $1-$2 He looks so unfinished to me and the Twins may not have time for unifinished at the moment.
110 Mitch Keller SP $1-$2 Someone will try to sell me “Mitch Keller has turned a corner and put it together” this year and I would like you all to remind me to say no thank you.
111 Max Scherzer SP $1-$2 He wasn’t completely washed last year so if he gets a job, maybe he can help you out a bit.
112 Chase Burns Util $1-$2 I am always going to be cautious about a guy who hasn’t faced pro opposition yet, but he’s intriguing enough to put on a roster.
113 Joe Musgrove SP $1-$2 Worth a cheap stash.
114 Ben Brown SP/RP $1-$2 He’s already shown he can pile up K’s in MLB and that’s a good start
115 Justin Verlander SP $1-$2 He was bad last year and he is probably not going to be good this year, but I can understand wanting to see the spring velo.
116 Erick Fedde 페디 SP $1-$2 He wasn’t good with STL but he wasn’t below replacement level either.
117 DJ Herz SP $1-$2 Did enough last year to earn a look this year.
118 Brady Singer SP $1-$2 He didn’t have great homer luck in KC…
119 Kyle Harrison SP $1-$2 There is still upside in the arm.
120 Chris Bassitt SP $1-$2 His P/IP have declined drastically the last few years and that isn’t a trend that usually turns around at 36.
121 Jameson Taillon SP $1-$2 The lack of strikeouts really caps his value.
122 DL Hall SP/RP $1-$2 I am willing to give him one more shot.
123 Triston Mckenzie SP $1-$2 I think he is worth rostering until he reports to camp and we see what’s what.
124 Trevor Williams SP $1-$2 Look, I have no faith in what he did last year repeating, but it might, right?
125 Frankie Montas SP $0-$1
126 Jose Soriano SP $0-$1
127 Hagen Smith SP $0-$1
128 Jarlin Susana SP $0-$1
129 Aaron Ashby SP/RP $0-$1
130 Hayden Wesneski SP/RP $0-$1
131 Cade Horton SP $0-$1
132 Braxton Garrett SP $0-$1
133 Hurston Waldrep SP/RP $0-$1
134 Cristian Javier SP $0-$1
135 Cade Povich SP $0-$1
136 Joe Boyle SP $0-$1
137 AJ Smith-Shawver SP/RP $0-$1
138 Reid Detmers SP $0-$1
139 Christian Scott SP $0-$1
140 Tink Hence SP $0-$1
141 Gavin Stone SP $0-$1
142 Noble Meyer SP $0-$1
143 Max Meyer SP $0-$1
144 Zack Littell SP $0-$1
145 Joey Cantillo SP $0-$1
146 Albert Suarez SP/RP $0-$1
147 Chase Dollander SP $0-$1
148 Jordan Hicks SP/RP $0-$1
149 Grant Holmes SP/RP $0-$1
150 Hayden Birdsong SP $0-$1
151 Merrill Kelly 켈리 SP $0-$1
152 JP Sears SP $0-$1
153 Casey Mize SP $0-$1
154 Eduardo Rodriguez SP $0-$1
155 Simeon Woods Richardson SP $0-$1
156 Will Warren SP $0-$1
157 Emerson Hancock SP $0-$1
158 Yariel Rodriguez SP $0-$1
159 River Ryan SP/RP $0-$1
160 Mick Abel SP $0-$1
161 Alejandro Rosario SP $0-$1
162 Louie Varland SP/RP $0-$1
163 Andre Pallante SP/RP $0-$1
164 Garrett Whitlock SP/RP $0-$1
165 Josiah Gray SP/RP $0-$1
166 Mitchell Parker SP $0-$1
167 Chris Paddack SP $0-$1
168 Ryan Weathers SP $0-$1
169 Alex Cobb SP/RP $0-$1
170 Griffin Canning SP $0-$1
171 Jose Berrios SP $0-$1
172 Clayton Kershaw SP $0-$1
173 Jordan Montgomery SP $0-$1
174 Landen Roupp SP/RP $0-$1
175 Andrew Heaney SP $0-$1
176 Charlie Morton SP $0-$1
177 Jake Irvin SP $0-$1
178 Osvaldo Bido SP/RP $0-$1
179 Javier Assad SP $0-$1
180 Andrew Abbott SP $0-$1
NR Landon Knack SP $0
NR Mitch Spence SP/RP $0
NR Bailey Falter SP $0
NR Graham Ashcraft SP $0
NR Jose Butto SP/RP $0
NR Kris Bubic SP/RP $0
NR Jose Quintana SP $0
NR Gary Gill Hill SP $0
NR Jack Leiter SP/RP $0
NR Tyler Anderson SP $0
NR Tyler Mahle SP/RP $0
NR Chase Silseth SP/RP $0
NR Dean Kremer SP $0
NR Aaron Civale SP $0
NR Jordan Wicks SP $0
NR Jonathan Cannon SP $0
NR Marcus Stroman SP $0
NR Matt Manning SP $0
NR Trevor Rogers SP $0
NR Ben Lively 라이블리 SP $0
NR Jon Gray SP $0
NR Joey Estes SP $0
NR Spencer Turnbull SP/RP $0
NR Kyle Hendricks SP/RP $0
NR Quinn Priester SP $0
NR J.P. France SP $0
NR John Means SP/RP $0
NR Steven Matz SP/RP $0
NR Michael Lorenzen SP $0
NR Miles Mikolas SP $0
NR Alec Marsh SP $0
NR Lance Lynn SP $0
NR Matt Waldron SP $0
NR Paul Blackburn SP $0
NR Ian Anderson SP/RP $0
NR Colin Rea SP/RP $0
NR Keider Montero SP $0
NR Kyle Gibson SP $0
NR Logan Allen SP $0
NR Bryce Elder SP $0
NR Dane Dunning SP/RP $0
NR Drew Thorpe SP $0
NR Jonah Tong SP $0
NR Brandyn Garcia SP $0
NR Brant Hurter SP/RP $0
NR Ricky Tiedemann SP $0
NR Keaton Winn SP $0
NR Robert Gasser SP $0
NR Patrick Sandoval SP $0
NR Michael McGreevy SP/RP $0
NR Robby Snelling SP $0
NR Alek Manoah SP $0
NR Yilber Diaz SP/RP $0
NR Edgardo Henriquez SP/RP $0
NR Carson Whisenhunt SP $0
NR Ty Madden SP/RP $0
NR Kenta Maeda SP/RP $0
NR Taijuan Walker SP $0
NR Chayce McDermott SP/RP $0
NR Thomas Harrington SP $0
NR Martin Perez SP $0
NR Jairo Iriarte SP/RP $0
NR Jake Bloss SP/RP $0
NR Sixto Sanchez SP/RP $0
NR Matthew Liberatore SP/RP $0
NR Matt Wilkinson SP $0
NR Cole Irvin SP/RP $0
NR Braxton Ashcraft SP/RP $0
NR Ian Seymour SP $0
NR Jose Urquidy SP/RP $0
NR Michael Soroka SP/RP $0
NR Drew Smyly SP/RP $0
NR Dakota Hudson SP $0
NR Daniel Espino Util $0





A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's writes for RotoGraphs and PitcherList, and can be heard on the ottobot podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @chadyoung.

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EonADSMember since 2024
10 days ago

Bibee’s arsenal is a bit weird. His 4-seam isn’t a great pitch, his Slider is categorized as a slider or a cutter variably, and his curveball seems to blend in with the other two in a Kluber-like way. His Changeup, which is his 3rd most used pitch, is a solid weapon as well, with minimal platoon splits though he uses it much more against lefties. Almost wonder if he’d be better if he went the Kluber route of ditching the 4-seam for a sinker/2-seam. Seems like a good SP2 option.