Today, I review my ERA upside guys, which included 13 names I was projecting for an ERA significantly better than Steamer. Let’s find out how these pitchers performed and which projection was closer.
Last week, I looked at the largest auction player bargains of 2019. These were the players who were highly profitable after considering their opportunity cost of acquisition. We defined the bargain amount as:
$Bargain = $Value – $AAV
We defined $Value as the accumulated 5×5 full season rotisserie value of each player, and $AAV as the average auction cost to purchase the player pre-season. We make use of the NFBC Average Auction Values which are readily available to us.
For the full methodology of how these player bargains are calculated, please refer to my introductory post.
Today’s attention will be directed to what I refer to as the value drainers. These are the largest “rip-offs” of 2019 – i.e., the players who earned the most negative profits for fantasy owners on a full season basis (net of their auction price). Read the rest of this entry »
Yesterday, I reviewed my pre-season stolen base upside guys, comparing my Pod Projections to Steamer. I didn’t fare too well, coming closer than Steamer on just one out of five. Today, I hope to perform better, as I review my stolen base downside guys, comparing my PA/SB forecast to Steamer’s. Let’s find out how I did.
Since I publish my own projections, I like to compare the completed set to Steamer to see which players and stat categories we disagree on the most. So in mid-March, I compared my stolen base projection over 650 plate appearances, using an implied PA/SB forecast, to Steamer’s and then discussed the five hitters I was most bullish on. Let’s find out how those hitters actually performed and which projection system was closer.
Winning Fantasy Baseball is All. About. Value.
Introduction:
Several years back, a friend of mine was preparing for his fantasy baseball auction. He asked me a simple question –
“How much is Lorenzo Cain worth according to your projections?”
That was a straightforward question for me to answer. I ran the ATC Projections through my valuation model. I set the league parameters to match his specific league settings, and I generated a value for Cain of $18.
A few days later, my friend came back to me and said,
“Ariel, I bought Lorenzo Cain at my auction for $18! Isn’t that awesome?!?!”
I responded “No, that’s awful. If Lorenzo Cain is worth $18, you need to only pay $14 or $15 or $16.”
Let’s review the first Pod Projection I posted for the 2019 season, Yusei Kikuchi, who was to make his MLB debut from Japan. It’s difficult enough to project players with no Major League experience, such as rookies coming up from the minor leagues. It’s even more challenging to try the forecast game when that player with no MLB experience is actually coming from a foreign league. Translating their foreign league performance is more art than science. Luckily, the DELTA website helped by supplying some of the season metrics, which I did my best to translate to a Major League equivalent to use as a guide. Let’s see how he performed versus my projections and the rest of the systems.
… but not by much for teams I just owned …
My 2019 fantasy season did not live up to my standards with most of the struggles being self-inflicted. Here are some overarching themes I spotted with each league plus some additional points at the end.
I ran out of money in almost every league and spent too much FAAB on worthless assets. Looking back over the leagues, the root cause was chasing week-only plays. From my work writing “The Process”, I found out how valuable it is to grind out each week. Additionally, I ran the weekly FAAB projections here so I knew around what it would take to get each. Initially, I got the players and but dropped them a week or two later for better options with little to show for the FAAB spent
I need to set a FAAB limit for chasing week-only plays and just accept it’s fine to miss out on a few players. A week’s advantage is worth the same in week 1 or the final week. The rest of my FAAB can be used for chasing long term improvements. Some players may straddle the long-term and weekly play so the FAAB may come from both the weekly and long term pools. I need to have a plan and stick to it.
Read the rest of this entry »
The 2019 MLB regular season has concluded. Two Astros may very well finish 1-2 in the AL Cy Young award. The Brewers went on an unbelievable Yelich-less run to make the playoffs – only to be eliminated in the wildcard game with their best pitcher on the mound. A new record was set for rookie homeruns in a single season. The Yankees hit 306 HRs as a team, and yet that did not set a record; the Twins hit 307! Baseball set a new collective HR record. It was the year of the longball, or as Jeff Zimmerman calls it, “Happy Fun Ball.”
It is now time to check back on how we fared this year in fantasy. Let’s start with a review of this season’s bold predictions.
As I often remind my readers – we will never succeed in getting the entirety of our bold predictions correct, or even realize a majority of them. If I wanted to achieve a high success rate, I could simply have filled up my list of predictions with easy ones such as “Justin Verlander will win 10+ games this season.” That class of prediction would have been too easy.
Rather, the point of the exercise is to highlight certain undervalued (or overvalued) players by choosing a few unlikely, yet achievable outcomes. The idea is to target somewhere between the 70th and 90th percentiles of possible outcomes – predictions which are 10-30% likely to occur.
I often use the ATC Projections as a guide for these bold predictions. I look at where the ATC projections generate an outcome which varies significantly from what the general public perceives will happen. Some other times – I just go with my gut and with my own intuition.
Let’s recap!
#1: Matt Barnes will finish as a top 5 saves leader in 2019
There are two elements that need to occur for a relief pitcher to accumulate saves. The pitcher needs to:
It’s time to go over a few more games from this past weekend and today. All the background information is available in this introductory article and I’m just going to continue grinding through games trying to find discrepancies and any useful fantasy information like the following.
Notes from the lines:
Compared to last week when nothing happened, a few interesting names popped up this week for those still with FAAB left to spend.
The projection guidelines:
| Name | Previous Ownership% | Current Ownership% | Change% | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cory Spangenberg 2B | MIL | 0% | 1% | 1% | $1 |
| Ryan McBroom 1B | KC | 0% | 1% | 1% | $1 |
| Cornelius Randolph LF | PHI | 0% | 1% | 1% | $1 |
| Tyler Wade 2B | NYY | 0% | 1% | 1% | $1 |
| Jose Trevino C | TEX | 1% | 2% | 1% | $1 |
| Reese McGuire C | TOR | 1% | 2% | 1% | $1 |
| Dylan Moore SS | SEA | 2% | 3% | 1% | $1 |
| Cedric Mullins CF | BAL | 2% | 3% | 1% | $1 |
| Austin Romine C | NYY | 4% | 6% | 2% | $1 |
| Martin Maldonado C | HOU | 4% | 5% | 1% | $1 |
| Kyle Lewis CF | SEA | 5% | 14% | 9% | $4 |
| Mauricio Dubon SS | SF | 6% | 8% | 2% | $1 |
| Nico Hoerner SS | CHC | 7% | 15% | 8% | $3 |
| Victor Reyes LF | DET | 8% | 11% | 3% | $1 |
| Aledmys Diaz SS | HOU | 8% | 9% | 1% | $1 |
| Sean Murphy C | OAK | 11% | 17% | 6% | $2 |
| Joey Wendle 2B | TB | 13% | 15% | 2% | $1 |
| Austin Nola SS | SEA | 17% | 21% | 4% | $2 |
| Christin Stewart LF | DET | 17% | 18% | 1% | $1 |
| Eric Thames RF | MIL | 18% | 21% | 3% | $2 |
| Nick Solak 2B | TEX | 19% | 26% | 7% | $7 |
| Trent Grisham RF | MIL | 19% | 23% | 4% | $3 |
| Garrett Cooper LF | MIA | 25% | 27% | 2% | $5 |
| Adam Frazier 2B | PIT | 26% | 33% | 7% | $12 |
| Tommy Edman SS | STL | 34% | 46% | 12% | $30 |
| Starlin Castro 2B | MIA | 38% | 48% | 10% | $29 |
| Robinson Cano 2B | NYM | 43% | 49% | 6% | $26 |
| Jorge Alfaro C | MIA | 43% | 44% | 1% | $18 |
| Wil Myers LF | SD | 48% | 66% | 18% | $68 |
| Mike Yastrzemski RF | SF | 49% | 52% | 3% | $28 |
| Name | Previous Ownership% | Current Ownership% | Change% | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Bolanos SP | SD | 0% | 2% | 2% | $1 |
| Seung-Hwan Oh RP | COL | 0% | 1% | 1% | $1 |
| James Karinchak RP | CLE | 1% | 3% | 2% | $1 |
| Jorge Lopez RP | KC | 2% | 5% | 3% | $1 |
| Jairo Diaz RP | COL | 3% | 7% | 4% | $1 |
| Nick Wittgren RP | CLE | 3% | 4% | 1% | $1 |
| Chad Green RP | NYY | 4% | 5% | 1% | $1 |
| Anthony Kay SP | TOR | 7% | 9% | 2% | $1 |
| Yusmeiro Petit RP | OAK | 7% | 8% | 1% | $1 |
| Will Harris RP | HOU | 8% | 9% | 1% | $1 |
| Trevor May RP | MIN | 9% | 10% | 1% | $1 |
| Arodys Vizcaino RP | SEA | 10% | 11% | 1% | $1 |
| Trent Thornton RP | TOR | 11% | 13% | 2% | $1 |
| Drew Smyly SP | PHI | 14% | 16% | 2% | $1 |
| Johnny Cueto SP | SF | 21% | 46% | 25% | $21 |
| Justus Sheffield RP | SEA | 27% | 35% | 8% | $1 |
| Dylan Bundy SP | BAL | 28% | 30% | 2% | $1 |
| Michael Wacha SP | STL | 33% | 37% | 4% | $1 |
| Gio Gonzalez SP | MIL | 34% | 38% | 4% | $1 |
| Ross Stripling SP | LAD | 38% | 40% | 2% | $1 |
| Seth Lugo RP | NYM | 42% | 45% | 3% | $1 |
| Zach Eflin SP | PHI | 43% | 45% | 2% | $1 |
| Alex Young SP | ARI | 45% | 56% | 11% | $6 |
| Nathan Eovaldi SP | BOS | 45% | 52% | 7% | $2 |
| Sandy Alcantara SP | MIA | 46% | 49% | 3% | $0 |
| Merrill Kelly SP | ARI | 47% | 54% | 7% | $3 |
| Chase Anderson SP | MIL | 47% | 50% | 3% | $0 |
| Reynaldo Lopez SP | CHW | 48% | 56% | 8% | $4 |
| Martin Perez SP | MIN | 50% | 55% | 5% | $2 |
Closer Rankings (Saves focused)
| Add | Avg Bid | Leagues (38) |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Lux | $11 | 35 |
| Kyle Gibson | $9 | 9 |
| Zach Eflin | $8 | 5 |
| Johnny Cueto | $8 | 5 |
| Robinson Cano | $7 | 9 |
| Rich Hill | $6 | 23 |
| Brandon Nimmo | $6 | 10 |
| Dylan Moore | $6 | 23 |
| Tyler Glasnow | $6 | 14 |
| Justus Sheffield | $5 | 17 |
| Patrick Sandoval | $5 | 6 |
| Raimel Tapia | $5 | 6 |
| Seth Brown | $5 | 6 |
| Adam Haseley | $4 | 5 |
| Ross Stripling | $4 | 8 |
| Brendan McKay | $4 | 14 |
| Jairo Diaz | $4 | 8 |
| Joey Wendle | $3 | 11 |
| Dawel Lugo | $3 | 9 |
| Josh James | $3 | 6 |
| Harold Castro | $3 | 5 |
| Drew Smyly | $3 | 5 |
| Josh Rojas | $2 | 17 |
| Mauricio Dubon | $2 | 10 |
| Robert Dugger | $2 | 13 |
| Austin Pruitt | $2 | 6 |
| Matt Beaty | $2 | 8 |
| Tyler Beede | $2 | 5 |
| Garrett Hampson | $2 | 5 |
| Tyler Mahle | $2 | 13 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | $2 | 10 |
| Phillip Ervin | $2 | 5 |
| Ben Zobrist | $2 | 10 |
| Anthony Kay | $1 | 7 |
| Austin Voth | $1 | 5 |
| Julio Urias | $1 | 6 |
| Austin Hedges | $1 | 6 |
| Add | Avg Bid | Leagues (34) |
|---|---|---|
| Yairo Munoz | $16 | 6 |
| Ross Stripling | $16 | 5 |
| Sandy Alcantara | $14 | 12 |
| Daniel Mengden | $14 | 7 |
| Brandon Lowe | $13 | 6 |
| Terrance Gore | $11 | 9 |
| Jose Fernandez | $10 | 11 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano | $10 | 21 |
| Ryan Borucki | $10 | 12 |
| Delino DeShields | $9 | 5 |
| Erick Fedde | $7 | 24 |
| Ty Buttrey | $7 | 20 |
| Jose Alvarado | $6 | 9 |
| Chris Stratton | $6 | 6 |
| Ji-Man Choi | $5 | 14 |
| Willians Astudillo | $5 | 19 |
| Sean Reid-Foley | $5 | 9 |
| Joe Ross | $5 | 10 |
| Steve Cishek | $4 | 10 |
| Cody Reed | $4 | 7 |
| Nate Jones | $4 | 6 |
| Jorge Bonifacio | $4 | 6 |
| Tyler Skaggs | $3 | 5 |
| Brett Anderson | $3 | 6 |
| Jason Vargas | $3 | 7 |
| Daniel Norris | $3 | 8 |
| Christin Stewart | $3 | 10 |
| Jake Bauers | $3 | 7 |
| Wilmer Difo | $3 | 6 |
| Jake Cave | $2 | 7 |
| Aaron Altherr | $2 | 5 |
| Joe Mauer | $1 | 5 |
| Robbie Erlin | $1 | 7 |
| Victor Caratini | $1 | 9 |