Alas, it’s Pod Projections time, as the 2019 forecasts are now available! As usual, I’ll dive into my projection methodology (detailed in Projecting X 2.0) by sharing my process on several hitters and pitchers.
I’ll begin with the newest starting pitcher coming over from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. The Mariners signed 27-year-old southpaw Yusei Kikuchi to a four-year deal, so we’ll have to first translate his Japanese stats to MLB equivalents and then make a projection on those. It’s not an easy task.
My process for Kikuchi, and all foreign players if the data is available, is to collect his underlying metrics, index them to his league’s average, then translate those indexed metrics to MLB to yield an equivalent mark. From there, perhaps make some minor adjustments to account for uncertainty of a perfect conversion.
The DELTA website (check the English box on the right side above the stat table) is the go-to for Japanese league stats, as it displays FanGraphs stats for Japanese players. Rather than have to somehow convert an ERA, I can now project the underlying skills and use the same process for current Major Leaguers. The stat categories should look familiar, and they even include batted ball type distribution (LD%, GB%, FB%), as well as BABIP (labeled as DER, it’s 1 minus DER for BABIP) and HR/FB rate all under the Batted Ball tab. There are also pitch type and outcome tabs so we could learn about a pitcher’s repertoire.
Even with all this data, there is still much more that should be accounted for, but I don’t have the data for. This includes park factors and the quality of the defense.
So let’s get to it. As a reminder, I do not forecast ERA or WHIP manually, but rather the underlying skills that drive the results like K%, BB%, GB%. Excel then throws those inputs into my various formulas and an ERA, WHIP, HR/9, W-L record, etc, are calculated.
Games Started | IP: 28 | 160
If you do the math, this projection results in about 5.7 innings per start. When the Mariners signed Kikuchi, they also shared a plan to give him 30 starts, but limit his innings every couple of times out. That should keep his games started total near 30, but reduce his IP/GS well below what he had typically posted in Japan. Though the team planned to give him 30-plus starts, I couldn’t actually bring myself to project that high a tally.
Kikuchi isn’t a hard thrower, but daaaaamn, he throws his slider frequently. Based solely on pitch selection, his closest comps appear to be Patrick Corbin and Jakob Junis, with Jon Gray also matching Kikuchi’s repertoire closely, albeit at a higher velocity. The strikeout rates of all three pitchers finished above 21%, getting all the way above 30% for Corbin. Similarly, the SwStk% marks ran the gamut from a low of 9.5% (Junis) to 15.6% from Corbin. Gray serves as the middle, and coincidentally, his 2018 strikeout rate stood pretty close to my Kikuchi projection.
|Year||Kikuchi K%||Japan Lg Avg K%||K%+||K% Indexed to 21.3% AL SP Lg Avg|
Although Japanese league strikeout rates have risen over the last two seasons, they still pale in comparison to Major League Baseball. That’s why outside of 2017, Kikuchi’s strikeout rates look rather mediocre. However, a look over to the K%+ column confirms that he has performed significantly above the league average, striking out batters 24% more often since 2014. That K% index translates to a mid-20% strikeout rate in MLB.
Of course, the talent in MLB is the greatest in the world and one cannot simply perform a conversion like this and call it a day. So to account for the unknown in how Kikuchi’s stuff will play in the U.S., I played it safe and took down his strikeout rate projection marginally.
|Year||Kikuchi BB%||Japan Lg Avg BB%||BB%+||BB% Indexed to 7.8% AL SP Lg Avg|
Earlier in Kikuchi’s career, he struggled a bit with his control. But it has improved significantly since, as he has thrown more first pitch strikes and pitches inside the zone. My projection gives him credit for the reduced walk rate over the past two seasons, but also acknowledges his previous three years at elevated marks. Overall, my forecast is for a bit lower than his average over the past five seasons.
GB%/LD%/FB%: 45% / 20.5% / 34.5%
|Year||Kikuchi GB%||Japan Lg Avg GB%||GB%+||GB% Indexed to 42.1% AL SP Lg Avg|
We typically pay far less attention to a pitcher’s ability to induce grounders. However, it’s important to factor in batted ball type distribution, as home runs and BABIP are greatly impacted by the type of batted ball a pitcher allows.
Kikuchi has posted a ground ball rate slightly higher than the Japan league average in the past three seasons, with his mark rising each season. There are more ground balls in the Pacific League of NPB, so Kikuchi’s MLB translated GB% is chopped. My 45% ground ball rate forecast essentially matches his average in the past three seasons.
|Year||Kikuchi HR/FB||Japan Lg Avg HR/FB||HR/FB+||HR/FB Indexed to 13.2% AL SP Lg Avg|
As we are all well aware, there are significantly fewer homers in NPB. In the last three seasons, the Pacific League average HR/FB rate failed to get into the double digits. That has only happened four times in MLB since 2002, as far back as our FanGraphs data goes.
But perhaps surprisingly for one of the betters pitchers in the league, Kikuchi has allowed homers on his flies at an above average clip the last two seasons. That translates to a nearly 14% HR/FB rate average during that time period. Safeco Field is about neutral for homers, and I figure a somewhat improved ability to suppress homers, so my forecast calls for a 13.5% rate, which is still above the 2018 AL average.
|Year||Kikuchi BABIP||Japan Lg Avg BABIP||BABIP+||BABIP Indexed to 0.293 AL SP Lg Avg|
BABIP is a function of a pitcher’s pitch selection and repertoire, the batted ball types he allows, and his defensive support, among other lesser factors. Luck plays a bigger role than most would like to admit. It’s hard enough projecting a veteran pitcher’s BABIP, so trying to predict a rookie pitcher, and one coming over from across the world, is extremely difficult.
Kikuchi has done a fabulous job at suppressing hits on balls in play. He has consistently done so better than the league average, which translates to marks usually reserved for extreme fly ball pitchers or those blessed with the best of fortune. Kikuchi doesn’t project to have any sort of extreme batted ball tendency, plus the Mariners defense is projected to be pretty terrible.
That said, hitters are likely going to have to adjust to Kikuchi’s delivery and pitching style, and we shouldn’t completely ignore his skills at limiting hits in Japan. So my .290 BABIP forecast is a conservative way to acknowledge the possibility of above average hit prevention skills, while reflecting the possibly the Mariners provide some poor defensive support.
Below is my final projected pitching line. Typically, I would compare it with the other systems for comparison, but those don’t seem to be published yet.
Overall, this is a respectable, albeit unremarkable, projection. In a 12-team mixed league, it represents between the high tier of the low end and the low end of the mid tier. He might need to be managed for those games he only goes a couple of innings, since he won’t qualify for a win and would essentially just contribute reliever stats for the week without the possibility of a save.
Since the day after he signed, his NFBC ADP stands at 174 as the 65th pitcher off the board. His pick range, though, is all over the place, with a minimum of 96 and maximum of 300. At his current ADP and rank among pitchers, he’s very reasonably priced. It’ll be interesting to see how he performs during spring training, as you know his results have the potential to dramatically affect his cost. Don’t overreact the way fantasy owners did for Shohei Ohtani!
Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.