2019 Pod vs Steamer — SB Downside, A Review

Yesterday, I reviewed my pre-season stolen base upside guys, comparing my Pod Projections to Steamer. I didn’t fare too well, coming closer than Steamer on just one out of five. Today, I hope to perform better, as I review my stolen base downside guys, comparing my PA/SB forecast to Steamer’s. Let’s find out how I did.

Another loss over a small sample size. You would think that with the leaguewide slowdown in stolen bases, I would have swept the downside guys.

Gosh, I was super bearish on Jake Bauers‘ stolen base potential and he even made my projection look silly. Bauers isn’t particularly fast and he didn’t run a whole lot during his MLB debut with the Rays. So a bullish bet was really just banking on his willingness to run in the minor leagues, and mostly while at Triple-A, carrying over in his second season in the Majors. It’s the type of profile that usually leads to a disappointing steals total.

Ya know, I thought I was super smart for reducing Francisco Lindor’s stolen base projection after he suffered a strained calf during spring training. It’s an injury I assumed Steamer wasn’t aware of, which I figured gave the human an advantage. He did only attempt one steal in April, but that came over just 38 plate appearances. In May, he was back to normal, attempting six steals. So much for the calf affecting his willingness to steal! You just can’t win…unless of course you bought him at a discount during your draft/auction.

There wasn’t a whole lot of analysis behind the gap in Garrett Hampson’s stolen base projection, as he was a rookie with just 48 MLB plate appearances heading into the season. I’m typically conservative with rookies, because you never know how willing they are to run in the Majors. I’m especially conservative when that rookie is a Rockies hitter, as there’s not a whole lot of reason to run wild when you play in one of the league’s premier hitting venues. Turns out, Steamer almost nailed the projection. Given his strong finish, if he figures to head into the season with a starting job, he’ll once again be a heavily hyped sleeper, reducing his profit potential.

My feeling on Yasiel Puig was that as a power hitter who has dealt with his share of injuries, he would slow down the running game to ensure he remains healthy. Nope, not Yasiel! He beat both our projections en route to a career high stolen base total. He’s another hitter type that’s hard to count on to continue with the mid-to-high teen steal totals. One of these years, it’s going to plummet into single digits.

Javier Baez actually pulled what I thought Puig would pull too — continued home run power resulting in less desire to run. Obviously, Baez homered 34 times in a breakout 2018, but he had his fun, swiping 21 bags. He didn’t do it very efficiently though, as he needed 30 opportunities. He remained a poor base-stealer, only going 11 for 18 this year, and with an inflated BABIP, I see much more OBP downside than upside. I’m not optimistic about any major stole base rebound in 2020.