Archive for Outfielders

Outfield 2026 Fantasy Rankings

by
March 19, 2026


David Banks-Imagn Images

Changelog

  • 12/19/2025 – First Release
  • 1/7/2026 – Update with summaries for Harris, Pages, Anthony, Lile, Burleson, Trout, Wood, Rooker, Langford, and Chourio.
  • 1/22/2026 – Update with summaries for Schwarber, Alvarez, Buxton, Yelich, Arozarena, Duran, Garcia, Bellinger, Altuve, and Hernandez.
  • 2/02/2026 – Update and summaries for Cowser, Steer, Frelick, Carter, Soderstrom, Garcia, Friedl, and Laureano
  • 2/10/2026 – Small update
  • 2/12/2026 – Several items
    • Summaries for Abreu, Varsho, Springer, and Lowe
    • Updated ADP data from NFBC Draft Champions to NFBC Online Championships.
    • Changed the threshold for the amount a player moved in the rankings to 5 spots.
  • 2/24/2026 – Small update, no real changes.
  • 3/12/2026 – Small update with more injury information
  • 3/19/2026 – Not much movement at the top, but some at the bottom.

Ranking Methodology

  • ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Online Championship Leagues.
  • $ Values are based on a standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
  • ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
  • 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net.

Five-Category Studs

These hitters provide value in every aspect of the game with speed, power, and batting average. There are no flaws in their game.
Five-Category Studs
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
1 Aaron Judge NYY OF – 2 $37
2 Juan Soto NYM OF – 5 $36
3 Julio Rodriguez SEA OF – 10 $30
4 Kyle Tucker LAD OF – 13 $30
5 Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP OF – 14 $28
6 Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL OF – 5 $33
10 Corbin Carroll ARI OF – 15 $27

Four-Category Studs

Some of these hitters may be better real-life players than those in the above tier, but lack in one roto category, usually steals.
Four-Category Studs
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
9 Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC OF – 32 $23
11 Brent Rooker ATH OF – 44 $24
12 James Wood WSN OF – 35 $19
14 Yordan Alvarez HOU OF – 33 $20

Pete Crow-Armstrong is going to be a divisive player in drafts. First, he’s way better in Roto using batting average with the extra emphasis on stolen bases and no downgrade for a sub-300 OBP. He has the potential to be a platoon bat(career .769 OPS vs RHP, .591 OPS vs LHP), but his elite defense will keep him on the field. Running some comps, they point to a career similar to Javier Báez and Rougned Odor.

Brent Rooker is no longer an enigma; he’s a steady source of 30 HR or more with 180 Runs+RBI. This past season, he seems to have traded off a hit of power (91.9 avgEV to 90.7) for more contact (68% Contact% to 72%). He even throws in a half dozen stolen bases.

Which James Wood will show up this season? The one who hit 24 HR with a .915 OPS in the first half or the one with just 7 HR and a .690 OPS (39% K%) in the second half. I dug and could not find why his Contact% dropped from 72% to 65%. Think of the hype if the halves were switched. Wood’s bat speed and the subsequent batted balls are comparable to the league’s best hitters. Depending on his Contact%, his range of outcomes could be a 50 HR hitter or a frustration who will dominate for a few weeks but be a drag for the rest of the season (see Oneil Cruz).

After three straight seasons of 30+ home runs, Yordan Alvarez’s injured ankle caused him to miss most of last season. I’m worried it’s not 100% healthy, since the team says he will be the primary DH. Besides the injury, his home run per flyball rate has dropped in each of the last three seasons (25% to 21% to 16% to 10%). High risk play. Note: Could be Util-only in league with a 20-game minimum.

Five-Category Pillars

These hitters are good across the board, but don’t match up to those in the first tier.
Five-Category Pillars
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
7 Jackson Chourio MIL OF – 19 $24
13 Wyatt Langford TEX OF – 41 $18
15 Byron Buxton MIN OF – 72 $15
17 Jarren Duran BOS OF – 67 $10
20 Michael Harris II ATL OF – 100 $15
26 Christian Yelich MIL OF – 126 $12

Jackson Chourio has almost the exact same stats over the last two seasons, down to the seven caught stealings, four triples, and three hit-by-pitches. Some growth should be expected from the 21-year-old, but how much and when are the keys. One issue is that he might be slowing down with a 0.5 ft/s loss in Sprint Speed and only six stolen base attempts in the second half compared to 22 in the first half. In 2024, he was the 40th overall player and 59th last year, according to our player rater. That’s a nice floor. The key will be if he can improve on the 20 HR power AND continue to steal bases.

The arrows are heading in all directions with Wyatt Langford. He improved his power (43% HardHit% to 48%), but his contact rate got worse (80% Contact% to 76%). He stole more bases (19 SB to 22) with a slower Sprint Speed (29.8 ft/s to 28.9). Additionally, he missed time twice for oblique injuries while playing through them before taking time off. He quit running as much in the second half (15 SB vs 7), and maybe he didn’t want to re-injure the oblique. It’s tough to evaluate him with so many moving parts. The 24-year-old will be useful, but the way and amount are still up in the air.

Byron Buxton finally stayed “healthy” (126 games, highest since 2017) and posted the season everyone hoped he could (35 HR, 24 SB, .264 AVG). Besides health, there was no real skill improvement or degradation.

Jarren Duran regressed a bit after a career year in 2024, but still hit 24 HR with 24 SB. I’m not sure there is another gear for the 29-year-old. He seemed to sell out for power, with his average exit velocity up 1 mph and his average launch angle up 2.5 degrees. At the same time, his Contact% dropped over 4% points.

The projections love Michael Harris II as a 20/20 talent with a positive batting average. Those projections are of no help to the fantasy managers who started the 24-year-old when he hit .210/.234/.317 with 6 HR in the first half last season. Around the All-Star game, he changed his swing and hit .299/.315/.530 in the second half. One factor keeping his fantasy value down is that he’ll be hitting at the bottom of the Braves lineup, thereby suppressing his plate appearances.

Christian Yelich hit over 20 HR (29) for the first time since 2019. At 34-years-old, no one seems to be buying a breakout with a full season, career high 26% K%, and career-low 90.2 mph Average Exit Velocity. Besides not hitting the ball as hard, his 2 degree Launch Angle was the lowest since his rookie season. Note: He might only be Utility-only in leagues that require 20 games for a position.

Elite Power Bat, Nothing Else

These bats have 40+ home run power with a ton of counting stats. They provide very little in speed and batting average.
Elite Power Bat, Nothing Else
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
8 Kyle Schwarber PHI OF – 24 $23

Kyle Schwarber knocks the crap out of the ball. Since the shift was banned, he’s been posting better batting averages, removing his one weakness.

Balanced 2nd Division Bat (Pick Your Poison Tiers)

This tier and the next six tiers comprise the point in the draft where the talent starts to level off, and fantasy managers can focus on category specialists. Some of the unbalanced bats may provide some other category juice, but most of their value is wrapped up in a single category. This is another balanced tier, but in these instances, their trait is not being a drag in any category. They won’t allow a manager to catch up in any category.
Balanced 2nd Division Bat (Pick Your Poison Tiers)
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
18 Cody Bellinger NYY 1B/OF – 80 $16
19 George Springer TOR OF – 93 $13
21 Roman Anthony BOS OF – 52 $12
22 Maikel Garcia KCR 2B/3B/SS/OF – 66 $15
27 Andy Pages LAD OF – 134 $13
28 Steven Kwan CLE OF – 169 $11
29 Lawrence Butler ATH OF – 158 $10
30 Seiya Suzuki CHC OF – 99 $11
31 Jose Altuve HOU 2B/OF – 115 $10
33 Ceddanne Rafaela BOS 2B/OF – 129 $11
34 Brandon Nimmo TEX OF – 143 $7
39 Ian Happ CHC OF – 183 $9
42 Heliot Ramos SFG OF – 218 $9
45 Brenton Doyle COL OF – 168 $7
49 Daylen Lile WSN OF – 206 $5
50 Noelvi Marte CIN 3B/OF – 142 $0
55 Ramon Laureano SDP OF – 223 $3
56 TJ Friedl CIN OF – 263 $3
68 Harrison Bader SFG OF – 504 $1
72 Austin Hays CHW OF – 630 -$3
84 Josh Smith TEX 1B/3B/SS/OF – 481 -$7
85 Cam Smith HOU OF ▲11 381 -$5
87 Lars Nootbaar STL OF – 736 -$4
94 Jonathan India KCR 2B/3B/OF ▼5 604 -$10
96 Luis Rengifo MIL 2B/3B/OF – 620 -$11
103 Alek Thomas ARI OF – -$11
105 Kyle Isbel KCR OF – -$7
110 Jasson Dominguez NYY OF – 323 -$27

Cody Bellinger raised his launch angle and hit for more power, leading to a six-year high of 29 HR. The problem is that he’s had similar power strokes, and they’ve quickly disappeared. Additionally, last season was the first time he accumulated over 600 PA since 2019. With such variance, pay for the projection, knowing the results are hopefully better but could be way worse.

After a career-best season, George Springer is hoping for a repeat, and if so, it would be a historic first.

Usually, top prospects get all the love, but that doesn’t seem to be the case with Roman Anthony going after pick 50. While he only hit 8 HR in just over 300 PA, signs point to elite power. He led the league with a 60% HardHit%. He was fifth in the league with a 94.5% avgEV. He hit 27 Barrels, but only 8 of them went for HR (normally 1 HR for every two Barrels). The 21-year-old’s only weakness was a 28% K%.Upside of 30 HR.

After being a speed-only option in his first two seasons, Maikel Garcia hit 16 HR in 2025. He didn’t hit the ball harder, but he started elevating (6 deg to 10 deg LA, 49% GB% to 43% GB%) and pulling (33% Pull% to 39% Pull%) the ball more. Hopefully, he keeps or improves on those gains. In most leagues, he will only qualify at third base.

The last memory of Andy Pages is of his post-season struggles (.078 AVG) and benching. I examined similar players and found that a horrible postseason doesn’t affect the hitter’s next season’s production (article coming later this week). The market disagrees on his projection (.255 AVG, 25 HR, 10 SB), so take the discount and roster away.

Steven Kwan is a consistent source of batting average and steals with at least double-digit home runs.

After a breakout 2024 campaign, Lawrence Butler took a step back, likely because of a couple of knee injuries, one chronic. Additionally, he started getting platooned to end the season. Mute expectations because his talent and playing time could be at risk.

Seiya Suzuki’s power took a step forward with 35 HR being a possible outcome if he can stay on the field. The rest of his profile shows no signs of aging.

Jose Altuve posted a career-low (excluding 2020) batting average (.262 AVG) along with his lowest stolen base total in four years (10 SB). He posted nearly the same line in three of the past four seasons. I expect the same or worse results as he ages.

While his surface stats don’t show it, Ceddanne Rafaela took a major step forward in 2025.

Boring, old Brandon Nimmo has shown no signs of slowing down, and the change in home park could boost his production.

While Ian Happ’s hitting skills should repeat, his stolen base skills are deteriorating, and 5 SB might be his upside.

Heliot Ramos has settled into 20 HR to 25 HR with a half dozen stolen bases and a .260 AVG. He was able to post a career-low 23% K% to help keep his batting average up. Otherwise, he hasn’t changed, and he become a consistent productive player.

The 2025 season was a turbulent season for Brenton Doyle on and off the field. I’m going to give him a mulligan and rewind to his 2025 projections.

Daylen Lile may not have one standout trait, but he doesn’t seem to have a weakness besides being on the Nationals. Projections have him around a 15/15 guy with a .270 AVG (Jeremy Pena/Otto Lopez production, but 100 picks later). He ended the season hitting cleanup and sat against just one of the last seven lefties the team faced. Nice sleeper.

Over his first three seasons, Noelvi Marte showed several different versions of himself, with any narrative having an explanation. His value is tough to set beyond a basic projection.

If Ramón Laureano can keep the contact and power gains he made in 2025 while playing a full season, he becomes a solid sleeper

TJ Friedl is a high-variance play in home runs and stolen bases. When looking at his projections, I would take the over in home runs and the under in stolen bases.

Jasson Domínguez has struggled to live up to the hype surrounding him. In 2025, he was better than an average hitter (103 wRC+), but wasn’t good enough to crack a healthy Yankees outfield. With Bellinger gone, he is back in the outfield mix even after being the fifth-worst fielding outfielder according to Baseball Savant’s Out-Above-Average. (Note: As of December 18th, he is just hitting .184/.304/.263 in the Dominican Winter League).

Power and Average but zero Speed (Pick Your Poison Tiers)

The major contributions from these hitters are home runs and batting average, but no stolen bases.
Power and Average but zero Speed (Pick Your Poison Tiers)
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
25 Jackson Merrill SDP OF – 70 $15
40 Alec Burleson STL 1B/OF – 177 $11
46 Bryan Reynolds PIT OF – 204 $5
60 Jordan Beck COL OF – 231 $4
76 Spencer Steer CIN 1B/OF – 328 -$10
79 Jeff McNeil ATH 2B/OF – 485 $2
91 Andrew Benintendi CHW OF – 743 -$3
112 Miguel Andujar SDP 3B/OF – 736 -$11

I was fully invested in Jackson Merrill last season, and that idea did not go as planned. After being a five-category contributor in 2024 (24 HR, 16 SB, .292 AVG), he was barely replacement-level in 2025 (16 HR, 1 SB, .264 AVG). He ranked as the 59th outfielder, just ahead of Gavin Sheets. Before a June concussion, he was batting .304/.349/.474 with 5 HR and 1 SB (2 CS) in 186 PA. After returning from the concussion and until an ankle injury, he hit just .219/.286/.354. And when he returned from the ankle injury, he hit .275/.320/.626 with 7 HR in September. I’m not sure the steals will return, so pay or a .280 AVG with 25 HR. A Yandy Díaz or Corey Seager clone.

With the trade of Willson Contreras to the Red Sox, Alec Burleson takes over first base duties for the Cardinals. The 27-year-old improved both his Contact% (83% to 84%) and Hardhit% (41% to 43%) last year. The increase in hard contact led to a career-high .290 AVG and .169 ISO. While he didn’t get platooned to end last season, it is a possibility (career .606 OPS vs LHP, .775 OPS vs RHP).

If Bryan Reynolds’s shoulder heals, I could see him return to 25 HR and double-digit steals instead of the projected 20 HR/6 SB. I want to see him playing in the field and attempting steals in Spring Training to show that his shoulder is no longer an issue.

A shoulder injury ruined the first two months of Spencer Steer’s season, but he turned it around. With his current projections, I might expect a higher batting average and home runs but fewer stolen bases.

Power Focused (Pick Your Poison Tiers)

The major contribution from these hitters is home runs. The major contribution from these hitters is stolen bases.
Power Focused (Pick Your Poison Tiers)
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
23 Riley Greene DET OF – 78 $18
24 Teoscar Hernandez LAD OF – 129 $15
36 Jo Adell LAA OF – 119 $12
38 Taylor Ward BAL OF – 150 $12
44 Kyle Stowers MIA OF – 133 $8
47 Addison Barger TOR 3B/OF – 196 $2
51 Daulton Varsho TOR OF – 199 $9
63 Mike Trout LAA OF – 179 $4
67 Giancarlo Stanton NYY OF – 257 -$5
70 Trent Grisham NYY OF – 251 $0
71 Jac Caglianone KCR 1B/OF – 180 -$1
74 Kody Clemens MIN 1B/2B/OF – 703 -$20
92 Jorge Soler LAA OF – 668 -$4
98 Tyler O’Neill BAL OF – 521 -$3
104 Owen Caissie MIA OF – 592 -$9

Riley Greene has transitioned into a solid power option against righties (32 HR vs RHP, 4 HR vs LHP). Even as the 25-year-old struggled against lefties (career .680 OPS vs LHP, .825 OPS vs RHP), the Tigers started him in 157 games. The 30 HR power is legit, but he has a couple of flaws. He struckout 31% of the time last year as he struggled with fastballs (12% SwStr%). Additionally, I don’t expect him to start stealing bases with his Sprint Speed dropping from 28.1 ft/s (71st percentile) to 27.7 ft/s (59th percentile) to 26.7 ft/s (31st percentile) over the past three seasons.

Teoscar Hernandez is more well-rounded than just a power bat by chipping in a few stolen bases and ~.250 AVG. The 33-year-old’s power has been on a steady five-year decline. If the decline continues, he could be closer to 20 HR than his projected mid-to-high 20 HR totals.

Jo Adell may have improved his plate discipline enough to be a consistent home run threat.

Taylor Ward is projected for ~25 HR, 5 SB, and a .245 AVG. I could see bumping the home run number up to 30, but not any more.

Kyle Stowers turned his career around with career bests in power and contact metrics. He should be good for 25 HR to 35 HR. His batting average could dip as his BABIP regresses downward, but at least the average isn’t a major drain like in his first two seasons.

After coming off shoulder surgery, Daulton Varsho traded off contact for more power. He could be a source of 30+ HR and dozen or so stolen bases but a drain in batting average.

Over the past three seasons, Mike Trout has averaged 18 HR, 3 SB, and a .232 AVG. Those results are similar to those of Max Kepler and Kody Clemens. And I’m not sure of Trout’s upside at this point. He’s not running. A ballooning strikeout rate (32% last season) limits his batting average. Maybe managers will latch onto his late-season swing changes to make him more than a bench streamer.

Trent Grisham improved in two ways to help him the most: make more contact (80% Contact%, 2nd highest of his career) and hit the ball harder (career-high Barrel% and HardHit%). The 34 HR were double his previous high in 2022, and now all signs point to some downward regression. His 51 Barrels would normally produce 27 HR. Projections tag him with ~25 HR. Baseball Savant has him with 27.9 xHR, and had him with 29 HR if all his batted balls were in Yankee Stadium. Also, I would not expect any stolen bases after he stole a total of four over the past two seasons. I see him around a .230 AVG, 25 HR, and 2 SB.

Fantasy managers need to have a reality check when it comes to Jac Caglianone. Since he’s only shown the ability to hit for power in the majors, he’s just an accumulator. There is no hope for more than 1 or 2 SB, but he could be a positive contributor in batting average. Or he could repeat 2025 and be nearly unplayable. Gamble away.

Speed Focused (Pick Your Poison Tiers)

The major contribution from these hitters is stolen bases.
Speed Focused (Pick Your Poison Tiers)
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
35 Jakob Marsee MIA OF – 138 $5
57 Victor Scott II STL OF – 367 -$1
89 Jake Meyers HOU OF – 744 -$6
106 Victor Robles SEA OF – 705 -$15

Jakob Marsee should be amongst the league leaders in stolen bases with double-digit home runs if given a full-time role. The biggest disagreement will be with his batting average. Will it be closer to the projections, .200 AVG to .220 AVG, or the nearly .300 AVG hitter he was in 2025.

Average Focused (Pick Your Poison Tiers)

The major contribution of these hitters is batting average.
Average Focused (Pick Your Poison Tiers)
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
65 Jung Hoo Lee SFG OF – 349 $3
69 Brendan Donovan SEA 2B/SS/OF – 269 $1
99 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ARI OF – 691 $0

Jung Hoo Lee: Before the season began, Lee dealt with a back issue that flared up in mid-June. His back could have bothered him for a while but after resting at the All-Star break, he hit .293/.345/.414 from then on. While he should post a great batting average, all signs point to 10 HR and 10 SB. Also, he could end up getting platooned with a career .610 OPS against lefties and .756 OPS against righties.

Speed and Power but Average Sink (Pick Your Poison Tiers)

These hitters provide a combination of home runs and stolen bases, but are a major drag on batting average.
Speed and Power but Average Sink (Pick Your Poison Tiers)
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
16 Randy Arozarena SEA OF – 90 $12
32 Luis Robert Jr. NYM OF – 106 $10
37 Adolis Garcia PHI OF – 217 $12
41 Dylan Crews WSN OF – 173 $7
43 Oneil Cruz PIT OF – 95 $9
48 Colton Cowser BAL OF – 254 $1
73 Willi Castro COL 2B/3B/SS/OF – 259 $1
88 Isaac Collins KCR OF – 664 -$7
95 Jordan Walker STL OF – 427 -$5
100 Christopher Morel MIA OF – -$11
101 Wenceel Perez DET OF ▼7 747 -$11

During his age-30 season, Randy Arozarena may have posted his career year with highs in plate appearances (709 PA) and home runs (27 HR). At the same time, his .238 AVG was a drag. Besides the $7 he earned in 2024, he’s earned at least $17 in every season since 2021. Steady add.

While Luis Robert has been a 30/30 “full-time” player over his career, he doesn’t play enough to reach that level. Roster only if getting an extreme discount.

The 32-year-old Adolis Garcia has struggled for two straight seasons while dealing with several injuries. He’s going to need to stop and reverse several negative trends as he ages into his mid-30’s.

As Dylan Crews enters in age-24 season, he needs to show improvement with his power and/or contact skills to take a step forward to be at least a league-average hitter (77 wRC+ in ’15). His steals can be valuable as long as he’s not a drain in other categories. If he were on a better team, there would be a risk of a demotion, but the Nationals will have nothing to play for and will keep sending him out.

Oneil Cruz needs to improve in several areas (health, platoon issues, strikeout rate) while not backtracking in any other area. He is a solid source of power and speed. Just make sure to have a solid batting average in place before adding him.

It’ll be tough to target Colton Cowser since he’s a platoon bat with major contact issues. If a fantasy team is set on batting average, he could be an option for his home run and stolen bases.

Speed and Average (Pick Your Poison Tiers)

These hitters provide a combination of speed and batting average.
Speed and Average (Pick Your Poison Tiers)
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
58 Sal Frelick MIL OF – 217 $0
59 Chandler Simpson TBR OF – 184 $3
117 Jake Mangum PIT OF – 650 -$10

Sal Frelick took a positive step forward in both his contact and hard hit rates last season. The key for him going forward is maintaining or improving on them … and not regressing backwards.

Only a narrow roto build will fully utilize Chandler Simpson’s skills. He does feel like a corrective action if a team misses on steals and needs to catch up.

Platoon Bats

These guys are strong-side platoon bats who will max out around 400 to 500 plate appearances.
Platoon Bats
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
52 Kerry Carpenter DET OF – 235 $6
53 Wilyer Abreu BOS OF – 206 $4
54 Evan Carter TEX OF – 279 -$3
61 Josh Lowe LAA OF – 305 $2
62 Mickey Moniak COL OF – 246 $6
64 Brandon Marsh PHI OF – 646 -$1
66 Ryan O’Hearn PIT 1B/OF – 281 $1
75 Cedric Mullins TBR OF – 324 -$4
77 Matt Wallner MIN OF – 364 -$1
80 Dominic Canzone SEA OF – 479 -$7
81 Jesus Sanchez TOR OF – 585 -$5
82 Trevor Larnach MIN OF ▲5 747 -$9
83 Tommy Edman LAD 2B/3B/OF – 727 -$2
90 Nick Castellanos SDP OF – 605 -$11
93 Mike Yastrzemski ATL OF ▲6 656 -$6
97 Parker Meadows DET OF ▼17 -$9
102 Gavin Sheets SDP 1B/OF – 725 -$7
113 Javier Baez DET 2B/3B/SS/OF – 743 -$10
115 Jake Fraley TBR OF – -$9
119 Nathan Lukes TOR OF – -$15
120 Luke Raley SEA 1B/OF – -$14

While a strong-side platoon bat, the consistent Kerry Carpenter is a solid bet to hit around a .265 AVG with 25 HR.

Wilyer Abreu is a solid platoon bat whose upside is limited until he can prove that he can hit lefties.

A significant platoon disadvantage and checkered injury history limits Evan Carter’s upside.

Hopefully, Josh Lowe improves from his 2025 season, where he struggled in all aspects of his game, but I have little hope the Angels can help him rebound.

Mickey Moniak has turned into a solid platoon bat (career .497 OPS vs LHP, .760 OPS vs RHP) with some decent road numbers (career .745 OPS at home, .701 on the road, 92 wRC+ for both). He took a step forward in 2025 with a 74% Contact% and 45% HardHit%, both career highs. With more and harder contact, he hit 24 HR with a .270 AVG. I could see a repeat of the 25 HR with a solid .260 AVG with six to 12 stolen bases.

Parker Meadows is heading in the wrong direction. His HardHit% and Contact% have dropped every season. Prorating his 213 PA (missed time due to arm and quad injuries) to 639 PA, he is at 12 HR and 12 SB with a .215 AVG. The team has sat him against lefties (.502 OPS in ’25), but he’s not been good against righties (.653 OPS in ’25). I’d prefer to add him late and use him as a bench streaming option.

Time Shares

These hitters don’t have a set role just yet, but have the skills to be positive fantasy contributors.
Time Shares
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
78 Jose Caballero NYY 2B/3B/SS/OF – 205 -$11
86 Dylan Beavers BAL OF – 431 -$8
107 Zach McKinstry DET 2B/3B/SS/OF – 493 -$11
108 Gavin Lux TBR 2B/3B/OF – 747 -$13
109 Tyler Freeman COL 2B/OF – 747 -$14
111 Jake McCarthy COL OF – 608 -$9
114 Brooks Baldwin CHW 2B/3B/SS/OF – 747 -$10
116 Garrett Mitchell MIL OF – 691 -$9
118 Mauricio Dubon ATL 2B/3B/SS/OF – 747 -$11

Combining his minor league and major league numbers, Dylan Beavers accrued 22 HR and 25 SB. Steamer600 puts him at 17 HR and 16 SB with a .243 AVG, which seems reasonable. Accruing full-time at-bats will be the biggest issue for him since the Orioles have four regular outfielders and several options at the DH spot. His 26% K% could be a drag on his batting average, like in September when he hit .167 AVG.

Full Rankings Without Tiers

No tiers. Just the rankings.
Full Rankings Without Tiers
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
1 Aaron Judge NYY OF – 2 $37
2 Juan Soto NYM OF – 5 $36
3 Julio Rodriguez SEA OF – 10 $30
4 Kyle Tucker LAD OF – 13 $30
5 Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP OF – 14 $28
6 Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL OF – 5 $33
7 Jackson Chourio MIL OF – 19 $24
8 Kyle Schwarber PHI OF – 24 $23
9 Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC OF – 32 $23
10 Corbin Carroll ARI OF – 15 $27
11 Brent Rooker ATH OF – 44 $24
12 James Wood WSN OF – 35 $19
13 Wyatt Langford TEX OF – 41 $18
14 Yordan Alvarez HOU OF – 33 $20
15 Byron Buxton MIN OF – 72 $15
16 Randy Arozarena SEA OF – 90 $12
17 Jarren Duran BOS OF – 67 $10
18 Cody Bellinger NYY 1B/OF – 80 $16
19 George Springer TOR OF – 93 $13
20 Michael Harris II ATL OF – 100 $15
21 Roman Anthony BOS OF – 52 $12
22 Maikel Garcia KCR 2B/3B/SS/OF – 66 $15
23 Riley Greene DET OF – 78 $18
24 Teoscar Hernandez LAD OF – 129 $15
25 Jackson Merrill SDP OF – 70 $15
26 Christian Yelich MIL OF – 126 $12
27 Andy Pages LAD OF – 134 $13
28 Steven Kwan CLE OF – 169 $11
29 Lawrence Butler ATH OF – 158 $10
30 Seiya Suzuki CHC OF – 99 $11
31 Jose Altuve HOU 2B/OF – 115 $10
32 Luis Robert Jr. NYM OF – 106 $10
33 Ceddanne Rafaela BOS 2B/OF – 129 $11
34 Brandon Nimmo TEX OF – 143 $7
35 Jakob Marsee MIA OF – 138 $5
36 Jo Adell LAA OF – 119 $12
37 Adolis Garcia PHI OF – 217 $12
38 Taylor Ward BAL OF – 150 $12
39 Ian Happ CHC OF – 183 $9
40 Alec Burleson STL 1B/OF – 177 $11
41 Dylan Crews WSN OF – 173 $7
42 Heliot Ramos SFG OF – 218 $9
43 Oneil Cruz PIT OF – 95 $9
44 Kyle Stowers MIA OF – 133 $8
45 Brenton Doyle COL OF – 168 $7
46 Bryan Reynolds PIT OF – 204 $5
47 Addison Barger TOR 3B/OF – 196 $2
48 Colton Cowser BAL OF – 254 $1
49 Daylen Lile WSN OF – 206 $5
50 Noelvi Marte CIN 3B/OF – 142 $0
51 Daulton Varsho TOR OF – 199 $9
52 Kerry Carpenter DET OF – 235 $6
53 Wilyer Abreu BOS OF – 206 $4
54 Evan Carter TEX OF – 279 -$3
55 Ramon Laureano SDP OF – 223 $3
56 TJ Friedl CIN OF – 263 $3
57 Victor Scott II STL OF – 367 -$1
58 Sal Frelick MIL OF – 217 $0
59 Chandler Simpson TBR OF – 184 $3
60 Jordan Beck COL OF – 231 $4
61 Josh Lowe LAA OF – 305 $2
62 Mickey Moniak COL OF – 246 $6
63 Mike Trout LAA OF – 179 $4
64 Brandon Marsh PHI OF – 646 -$1
65 Jung Hoo Lee SFG OF – 349 $3
66 Ryan O’Hearn PIT 1B/OF – 281 $1
67 Giancarlo Stanton NYY OF – 257 -$5
68 Harrison Bader SFG OF – 504 $1
69 Brendan Donovan SEA 2B/SS/OF – 269 $1
70 Trent Grisham NYY OF – 251 $0
71 Jac Caglianone KCR 1B/OF – 180 -$1
72 Austin Hays CHW OF – 630 -$3
73 Willi Castro COL 2B/3B/SS/OF – 259 $1
74 Kody Clemens MIN 1B/2B/OF – 703 -$20
75 Cedric Mullins TBR OF – 324 -$4
76 Spencer Steer CIN 1B/OF – 328 -$10
77 Matt Wallner MIN OF – 364 -$1
78 Jose Caballero NYY 2B/3B/SS/OF – 205 -$11
79 Jeff McNeil ATH 2B/OF – 485 $2
80 Dominic Canzone SEA OF – 479 -$7
81 Jesus Sanchez TOR OF – 585 -$5
82 Trevor Larnach MIN OF ▲5 747 -$9
83 Tommy Edman LAD 2B/3B/OF – 727 -$2
84 Josh Smith TEX 1B/3B/SS/OF – 481 -$7
85 Cam Smith HOU OF ▲11 381 -$5
86 Dylan Beavers BAL OF – 431 -$8
87 Lars Nootbaar STL OF – 736 -$4
88 Isaac Collins KCR OF – 664 -$7
89 Jake Meyers HOU OF – 744 -$6
90 Nick Castellanos SDP OF – 605 -$11
91 Andrew Benintendi CHW OF – 743 -$3
92 Jorge Soler LAA OF – 668 -$4
93 Mike Yastrzemski ATL OF ▲6 656 -$6
94 Jonathan India KCR 2B/3B/OF ▼5 604 -$10
95 Jordan Walker STL OF – 427 -$5
96 Luis Rengifo MIL 2B/3B/OF – 620 -$11
97 Parker Meadows DET OF ▼17 -$9
98 Tyler O’Neill BAL OF – 521 -$3
99 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ARI OF – 691 $0
100 Christopher Morel MIA OF – -$11
101 Wenceel Perez DET OF ▼7 747 -$11
102 Gavin Sheets SDP 1B/OF – 725 -$7
103 Alek Thomas ARI OF – -$11
104 Owen Caissie MIA OF – 592 -$9
105 Kyle Isbel KCR OF – -$7
106 Victor Robles SEA OF – 705 -$15
107 Zach McKinstry DET 2B/3B/SS/OF – 493 -$11
108 Gavin Lux TBR 2B/3B/OF – 747 -$13
109 Tyler Freeman COL 2B/OF – 747 -$14
110 Jasson Dominguez NYY OF – 323 -$27
111 Jake McCarthy COL OF – 608 -$9
112 Miguel Andujar SDP 3B/OF – 736 -$11
113 Javier Baez DET 2B/3B/SS/OF – 743 -$10
114 Brooks Baldwin CHW 2B/3B/SS/OF – 747 -$10
115 Jake Fraley TBR OF – -$9
116 Garrett Mitchell MIL OF – 691 -$9
117 Jake Mangum PIT OF – 650 -$10
118 Mauricio Dubon ATL 2B/3B/SS/OF – 747 -$11
119 Nathan Lukes TOR OF – -$15
120 Luke Raley SEA 1B/OF – -$14

Optimal ADP Clusters: End Game Outfielders

by
March 17, 2026
New York Yankees left fielder Jasson Dominguez (24) hits a one run single against the St. Louis Cardinals during the fourth inning at Busch Stadium.
Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

“Don’t it always seem to go, you don’t know what you got ‘til it’s gone.”

Joni Mitchell may not be a roto savant, but even she might agree that the best part of the fantasy baseball season is research-and-draft season. Every day, from February until Opening Day, is so incredibly thrilling – nonstop spring training news, draft rankings adjustments, and player pool deep-dives – there’s always some rabbit hole of research to go down. As we continue studying and gaining confidence in the fresh player pool and a new year’s ADP, more questions arise, and the more work there is to be done.

Whether in NFBC or best ball contests, high-volume early drafters subconsciously form bad habits in draft rooms. We get too comfortable targeting and drafting the same players over and over. Conversely, we avoid players who have burned us in previous seasons and those we have some subjective bias against. Rarely do we deep dive and reassess those players because we’ve already made up our minds. That’s why it’s crucial to explore every nook and cranny of a positional tier. We have all fallen victim to draft room paralysis, where a decision between several similarly ranked shortstops or starting pitchers becomes gut-wrenching when we’re on the clock. This preseason column aims to help with those tough calls. We will explore some of the most confusing ADP clusters, by position, beyond the simple “I need to boost my batting average, so I’m taking this guy.”

Let’s dive into these ADP pockets logically and systematically, reviewing four analytical components of the players within each cluster.

  • Playing Time (and Role)
  • Health/Durability
  • Skills/Categorical Contributions
  • Context of Team Offense

ADP Cluster: Post-300 Outfielders

ADP from 17 NFBC 12-team Online Championships (OC) drafts over the last five days (March 12 – March 16)

These outfielders are drafted in the Rounds 25-26 of OCs, typically as an OF5. For shallower 12-teamers with 23-25 rounds, some of these hitters may be early-season waiver targets. Carson Benge is the only one here without major league experience. Jasson Dominguez is rumored to start the season in the minors. Cam Smith, Matt Wallner, Cedric Mullins and Jung Hoo Lee are projected as everyday starters in their respective lineups. Domínguez, Smith, Wallner, and Mullins were all utilized as part of a platoon for parts of the 2025 season.

Playing Time (and Role)

For Jasson Domínguez, it’s a matter of when, not if. The former heralded prospect and top 150 ADP selection from 2025 has seen his 2026 draft stock fall over the last couple of months with expectations of starting the season in Triple-A. After all, the Yankees re-signed Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham, Giancarlo Stanton (the DH) is healthy (for now) and the great Aaron Judge mans right field. Manager Aaron Boone wants Domínguez to be playing every day, but that opportunity doesn’t yet present itself in the majors. Boone’s problem though is that Domínguez has been forcing his hand with exceptional production in spring training – .371/.395/.686, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 3 SB, 170 wRC+ in 38 plate appearances. Domínguez had a decent rookie season (.257/.331/.388, 58 R, 23-of-27 SB in 429 PA), but his playing time was reduced down the stretch and he essentially didn’t play in the playoffs.

For the last couple of months, RosterResource projected Cam Smith as a short side platoon outfielder. That designation has been shifted to full-time right fielder batting eighth on Opening Day. His RosterResource batting order projection will certainly influence his market price these next couple of weeks. What is more important for drafters is to solidify whether they’re buying or fading based on his profile, not projected playing time, because the latter could fluctuate all season like it did in his rookie year. Smith hit lefties better (130 wRC+, .191 ISO) than he did righties (75, .098), but the sample is a small one and not predictive. Jake Myers will be play centerfield, and the other two spots will be split between Smith and lefty bats Joey Loperfido (welcome back to Houston!) and Zach Cole. Smith played 132 games in right field last season.

Matt Wallner can absolutely mash and he may earn the opportunity for full-time at-bats in the context of a weaker lineup that needs him. In 97 plate appearances against lefties last season, Wallner actually had a higher wRC+ (118) than he did against righties (113 in 295 PA) as well as a similar ISO (.247 vs. RHP, .267 vs. LHP). So far this spring, he is hitting .294 with two homers, a stolen base, and a 14.6% walk rate, through 41 plate appearances.

Cedric Mullins signed with the Rays in December in what will the first Opening Day in his career that he doesn’t don an Orioles uniform. A left-handed hitter, Mullins has avoided being platooned for most of his career, but experienced a little bit of it the last two seasons. We expect the Rays to include him in their lineup against both lefties and righties, though if he struggles, this outfield room is loaded with alternatives, including recently acquired rookie prospect, Jacob Melton. Mullins is 31 and has never been an elite defender in center,  posting negative UZR’s in all but one season. Mullins dealt with a back flare-up a couple of weeks ago, but appears healthy now. Through his first nine spring games, Mullins has two homers and a swipe.

Carson Benge is the sweet-swinging, lefty-batting, first-round selection of the Mets in the 2024 draft. He is having a strong camp (.367/.406/.433) and is projected to crack the Opening Day roster. Though he will likely begin the year on the strong side of a right field platoon with slick defender, Tyrone Taylor.

Jung Hoo Lee was a KBO star who signed a 6-year ($18.8M AAV) deal with the Giants two years ago, missed most of the 2024 season with injury, and produced mediocre results in 2025. Lee played 147 of 149 games in centerfield last season, but is being moved back to his original position from his KBO days (right field), primarily because of the offseason acquisition of Harrison Bader. Lee was a better hitter against righties (118 wRC+) than lefties (77) last season, though new manager Tony Vitello will likely start him every game. If Lee happens to stumble against lefties around a time when Luis Matos or Jerar Encarnacion heat up, it’s possible for Lee to fall into a platoon, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Health/Durability

None of the outfielders in this cluster have current injuries to worry about, but most of them have had their fair share of injuries over the years.

Cedric Mullins – The oldest of this group (31), Mullins has had a few lower-body related injury stints over the last few seasons. He missed time with a right hamstring strain last spring and missed over a month with a right groin strain in May of 2023.

Jasson Domínguez – He tore his UCL at the end of the 2023 minor-league season and had Tommy John surgery. He suffered a left oblique strain in the summer of 2024 and missed a couple of games (no IL stint) in June of 2025 with a left thumb contusion.

Jung Hoo Lee – He remained relatively health in his South Korea days, though he broke his ankle and missed half the 2023 season. The following year, his first in the Majors, he dislocated his shoulder crashing into an outfield wall in mid-May and underwent season-ending surgery. He tweaked his ankle in the WBC last week, but it turned out to be a minor issue.

Matt Wallner – He missed five weeks early last season after suffering a left hamstring strain. He also dealt with oblique strains in each of the past two seasons. Not surprising considering the big dude swings hard and carries a big stick.

Carson Benge missed his first season of college at Oklahoma State after an elbow injury caused him to undergo Tommy John surgery. His injury was pitching-related, and the two-way player shifted his focus to hitting and playing the outfield.

Cam Smith does not have an injury history other than minor nicks and bruises.

The two who I’d slightly ding fantasy value for their health and durability are Mullins and Wallner.

Skills/Categorical Contributions

Matt Wallner is in a class of his own here because of his prolific power. Some slight data manipulation here, but Wallner’s 16.1% barrel rate is tied with Mike Trout’s for seventh in the majors among hitters with at least 900 plate appearances since 2023. The guys ahead of him: Aaron Judge (26.2%), Shohei Ohtani (21.5%), Giancarlo Stanton (19.1%), Kyle Schwarber (17.7%), Juan Soto (17%), and Oneil Cruz (16.2%) – elite company, indeed. Wallner hit 22 home runs in 104 games (392 PA) last season, and has 30+ HR upside if he can stay off the IL. His batting average won’t be helpful, but he may throw in a few stolen bases and is one of the rare late-round boons for fantasy squads that might be power deficient.

Cedric Mullins had that magical 30-30 (HR-SB) season in 2021. In his past four seasons, he has swiped at least 30 bags twice, and has averaged 16.5 home runs. He has been a batting average killer though – .228 since 2023. A fair expectation for Mullins in his first season with the Rays would be 12-15 homers, 25 stolen bases, 100-130 R/RBI (combined) and another season with a sub-.240 average.

Jung Hoo Lee has the highest batting average upside of the cluster. He hit .319 in his first 30 games of 2025, went through a rough three-month stretch from May through July (.218), then hit .306 from August 1 until the end of the season. He is capable of hitting .290+ over a full season. His only positive roto category contribution was runs scored (73 in 150 games). He is a solid floor contributor, but you won’t see many projection models bless him with anything more than 10 HR and 10 SB. His allure lies within his potential batting average contributions.

Jasson Domínguez, Cam Smith, and Carson Benge are the three young, upside guys. All would project for double-digit homers and swipes with 500+ plate appearances. Dominguez’s distribution would lie higher on the SBs, though he is capable of 20-plus homers if he earns consistent playing time. Domínguez sported a 49.6% hard-hit rate and stole 23 bases on 28 attempts in 429 plate appearances last season. Smith and Benge have 20-HR, 15-SB potential though neither is likely to get there in 2026. Benge is certainly intriguing as a toolsy prospect with the eventual possibility of being a five-category contributor. Note that he only has 103 plate appearances at Triple-A and he struggled there (.178/.272/.311) after crushing it with a .300+ AVG and .400+ OBP in 92 games at High-A and Double-A.

Context of Team Offense

The best team context here is Domínguez’s with the Yankees, but that is if he is able to earn consistent playing time. Wallner’s team context is sneaky as a middle of the order power hitter, though his counting category contributions hinge on Byron Buxton, Luke Keaschall and Royce Lewis staying healthy, which may be asking a lot. Based on home parks, divisions and other hitters in the lineup, the other four from this cluster have a neutral context.

Verdict (with value grades, A-F)

Jasson Domínguez (A-) may have been overpriced in the 125-150 ADP range last season, but he is being greatly undervalued this draft season, at half the cost, because of lack of role clarity. Dominguez is pushing to crack the Opening Day roster and deserves it, but it would be better if he got the reps in Triple-A. Make the low-cost investment in Dominguez late in your drafts if your roster doesn’t have a bench stash already, and you believe that his everyday role with the Yankees is simply a matter of when.

Jung Hoo Lee (B+) won’t wow us in any category other than potentially batting average. He has a high floor and could easily outproduce his draft cost with another 600+ plate appearances. Perhaps he surprises us with a bit more than what models are projecting.

Matt Wallner (B+) is the ideal power-boost option towards the end of drafts, specifically for folks whose roster construction feel light on power after 20 rounds. I’m less worried about a platoon split than oblique issues or other ailments resurfacing.

Cam Smith (B) and Carson Benge (B-) have the widest range of potential outcomes. Spending a chunk of the season isn’t off the table for either of them, but less so for Smith. Benge rocked a 81% contact rate, and despite last season’s struggles with consistency at the plate in Triple-A, he is less likely than Smith to tank us in the batting average category. Smith could fall into a platoon with Loperfido or Cole, but this is unlikely to happen for a prolonged time period.

Cedric Mullins (C+) may seem like a sneaky and savvy late-round option due to his HR-SB upside, but Tropicana Field is a downgrade from Oriole Park and his projected batting average is a massive detractor to his overall projected value.


Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: Outfield

by
February 20, 2026
Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

After starting with the second largest position group last week, the Ottoneu rankings push continues with the largest position group this week. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Changelog

  • 2/20/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Added player notes for all players in tier $1-$2 and above. Updated tier placement for 21 players (green = moved up, red = moved down).
  • 3/18/2026: Updated tier placement for 16 players based on 2026 draft results.

 

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP

Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 75-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. Let’s get into it.

Ottoneu Points OF Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Position Projected Pts Pts/PA Notes
$66-$77 1 Aaron Judge OF 1325.5 2.03 The best hitter in baseball and showing no signs of slowing down.
$55-$65 2 Juan Soto OF 1160.9 1.70 Despite the slow start in his first season in New York, still finished the season as the third most valuable player in Ottoneu.
$45-$54 3 Yordan Alvarez OF 857.2 1.68 Unquestionably productive when healthy, but has never played in more than 150 games in a single season and has averaged just 118 games per season over the last five years.
$45-$54 4 Ronald Acuña Jr. OF 915.8 1.64 Skills all looked intact after he returned from his second major knee injury in late May. Lack of SB shouldn’t be an issue in FGpts.
$36-$44 5 Kyle Tucker OF 868.7 1.51 Should be healthy in 2026 after a finger injury derailed his 2H in ’25. Only question is where he’ll sign — he’ll produce wherever he lands.
$36-$44 6 Kyle Schwarber OF 1011.6 1.48 Even though he re-signed with the Phillies, it’s hard to imagine him repeating his career year from 2025.
$36-$44 7 Corbin Carroll OF 935.2 1.45 Contact quality dramatically improved last year. Could he take another step forward?
$28-$35 8 Brent Rooker OF 911.8 1.42 Plate discipline continued to improve in 2025, and contact quality was still excellent, but wOBA still fell by nearly 50 points. I’m looking for a bounce back in ’26.
$28-$35 9 Fernando Tatis Jr. OF 886.1 1.41 Probably won’t return to the .400 wOBAs he posted early in his career, still very productive with .350 wOBAs.
$28-$35 10 James Wood OF 817.6 1.35 Despite second half slump (150 wRC+ in 1H, 93 in 2H), ceiling is extremely high.
$28-$35 11 Julio Rodríguez OF 885.6 1.33 Still hits too many groundballs, but improved his strikeout rate in 2025. Batted ball quality is still there, just needs to elevate more.
$28-$35 12 Roman Anthony OF 684.3 1.32 Extremely impressive big league debut cut short by injury. Could have highest ceiling of any player in this tier.
$21-$27 13 Byron Buxton OF 714.2 1.45 Produces like a top 10 OF by Pts/PA but the question is always how many games will he play. 2025 was the first time he had more than 500 PAs since 2017.
$21-$27 14 George Springer OF 791.0 1.34 How much do you trust his rebound? Significant skill changes drove improvements, but he’s entering his age-36 season.
$21-$27 15 Riley Greene OF 813.7 1.33 Broke out wiht 36 HR in 2025, but strikeout rate climbed over 30%. Still starts against LHP, but very unproductive.
$21-$27 16 Seiya Suzuki OF 805.1 1.32 Contact quality still excellent despite second half slump. Plus he stayed healthy all season long.
$21-$27 17 Mike Trout OF 641.5 1.31 How the mighty have fallen. Power output significantly dropped but managed to play more than 130 games for the first time since 2019.
$21-$27 18 Wyatt Langford OF 748.3 1.28 Prospect hype placed too high expectations on him. Slower to develop but still very good player and getting better.
$21-$27 19 Jackson Chourio OF 763.2 1.27 One of the youngest players in baseball with two good seasons to start his career. Still waiting for a big step forward.
$15-$20 20 Kyle Stowers OF 632.1 1.32 Breakout season in 2025 cut short by injury. All the underlying metrics look solid, needs to prove it in ’26.
$15-$20 21 Jarren Duran OF 829.5 1.29 Issues against LHP keep his ceiling lower than you’d think. Hard to pay more than $20 for what is essentially a part-time player.
$15-$20 22 Tyler Soderstrom 1B/OF 686.2 1.27 Big breakout wasn’t a Sacramento mirage (-9 point wOBA home/road split). Adding OF eligibility definitely helps his value.
$15-$20 23 Christian Yelich OF 716.5 1.26 Good all around player. Completely healthy season after serious back injury cut 2024 short.
$15-$20 24 Cody Bellinger OF 765.6 1.26 Could be ranked a tier lower depending on where he signs. Big beneficiary of Yankee Stadium’s short porch (76 point wOBA home/away split)
$15-$20 25 Jackson Merrill OF 701.1 1.26 Five point increase in strikeout rate led to 20 point drop in wOBA. Contact quality remained solid.
$15-$20 26 Teoscar Hernández OF 727.3 1.25 Barrell rate down. Walk rate down. Feels like 2024 was the outlier between two disappointing seasons.
$10-$14 27 Matt Wallner OF 539.8 1.29 No platoon issues last year despite reputation. BABIP dropped 161 points last year, should be better in ’26.
$10-$14 28 Kerry Carpenter OF 569.7 1.29 Crushes RHP. Nearly unplayable against LHP. Probably won’t repeat the highs of 2024.
$10-$14 29 Wilyer Abreu OF 552.9 1.24 Big gains in contact rate while improving barrel rate. Top line results didn’t follow underlying metrics, but could take step forward in ’26.
$10-$14 30 Pete Crow-Armstrong OF 712.7 1.24 131 wRC+ in 1H, 72 in 2H. Which is the real Pete? Underlying skills stayed stable throughout the year — maybe 2H slump was just bad luck?
$10-$14 31 Taylor Ward OF 760.1 1.22 Traded away from home run friendly Angels Stadium to unfriendly Camden Yards. Solid hitter but a little worried about new outlook.
$10-$14 32 Jo Adell OF 641.5 1.21 Big breakout fueled by big contact quality gains. Plate approach still poor which limits his ceiling.
$10-$14 33 Oneil Cruz OF 657.3 1.21 Still having trouble turing raw skills into a complete package. Strikeout issues a huge red flag. Ceiling is still high if he can figure out plate approach.
$10-$14 34 Ian Happ OF 783.9 1.21 A useful accumulator with decent skills across the board.
$10-$14 35 Ryan O’Hearn 1B/OF 606.5 1.21 Eliminated platoon splits in 2025, though he struggled in San Diego after trade.
$10-$14 36 Alec Burleson 1B/OF 665.0 1.20 Small improvements in plate discipline and contact quality led to big improvements in results.
$10-$14 37 Trent Grisham OF 624.5 1.20 Resurrected his career in New York, set career high in HR in 2025. Real change in plate approach from patient to selectively aggressive.
$10-$14 38 Andy Pages OF 671.7 1.19 Crushed the ball at home but couldn’t produce away from Dodger Stadium.
$10-$14 39 Randy Arozarena OF 780.6 1.18 A useful accumulator with decent skills across the board. Contact quality improved in ’25.
$10-$14 40 Brandon Nimmo OF 749.4 1.18 A useful accumulator with decent skills across the board. Will plate discipline rebound?
$10-$14 41 Bryan Reynolds OF 733.5 1.14 Strikeouts up even though chase rate fell. Contact quality stayed steady. Could bounce back if he can get the K’s back in line.
$6-$9 42 Mickey Moniak OF 540.5 1.25 Made real strides forward in Colorado. Strikeouts down, contact quality up, home park is a nice bonus.
$6-$9 43 Ramón Laureano OF 566.9 1.23 Resurrected his career in Baltimore, continued pounding the ball in San Diego. Biggest difference was 4 point improvement in contact rate.
$6-$9 44 Brandon Marsh OF 541.4 1.21 Much more aggressive at the plate in 2025 led to improved contact rate, lower walk rate.
$6-$9 45 Lawrence Butler OF 644.9 1.16 2024 showed us his ceiling if everything goes right. 2025 showed us his floor if his plate discipline continues to slide.
$6-$9 46 Daylen Lile OF 552.5 1.16 Huge finish to the season looks like it was BABIP fueled (.380 BABIP in 2H). Excellent contact skills, little power, no walks — reminds me of Steven Kwan.
$6-$9 47 Heliot Ramos OF 705.6 1.14 Barrel rate way down but contact rate way up. Feels like he tried to trade power for contact but the result was a big step backwards.
$6-$9 48 Michael Harris II OF 644.2 1.14 2H surge salvaged his season (47 wRC+ in 1H, 130 in 2H). Projections still really like him, but I’m weary after ’24 and 1H ’25.
$6-$9 49 Jac Caglianone 1B/OF 500.0 1.14 Rough debut in 2025 but the massive power is enticing. Should get a chance to prove he can stick in the big leagues with a full-time role in ’26.
$6-$9 50 Spencer Steer 1B/OF 663.6 1.13 Slowly worked his way back from shoulder injury (113 wRC+ in Aug/Sept). Still feels like 2023 was his high water mark.
$6-$9 51 Steven Kwan OF 710.1 1.11 Even if his BABIP rebounds, it seems like his 2024 power spike was a one-year blip.
$6-$9 52 Luis Robert Jr. OF 533.4 1.11 Improved his plate discipline significantly in 2025. Power still hasn’t returned and healthy will always be a question.
$6-$9 53 TJ Friedl OF 644.4 1.11 Solid plate approach gives him a nice floor. Tries to make the most of his pulled contact with weak contact quality.
$6-$9 54 Daulton Varsho OF 530.5 1.11 Big power spike after returning from shoulder injury. Too many strikeouts put a cap on his ceiling.
$3-$5 55 Giancarlo Stanton OF 499.0 1.28 Can still crush the ball when healthy. Enjoyed his best offensive season in 2025 since ’17, but only played in 77 games.
$3-$5 56 Tyler O’Neill OF 449.5 1.26 Is he healthy? Can he still hit for power in Camden Yards? Contact quality fell in ’25 but plate discipline bounced back.
$3-$5 57 Masataka Yoshida OF 394.1 1.17 Does he have a regular spot in Boston’s lineup? Injuries derailed his 2025 season but underlying metrics looked normal-ish.
$3-$5 58 Dylan Beavers OF 473.0 1.16 Top prospect who should have a path to everyday at-bats in Baltimore. Extremely patient with decent power.
$3-$5 59 Jorge Soler OF 536.1 1.16 Bat speed and power output fell significantly in 2025. Doesn’t have the plate approach to rebound if power is gone.
$3-$5 60 Colton Cowser OF 541.3 1.15 Strikeout rate jumped through the roof in 2025. Untenable at 35%, could make it work at 30%, but the margin is razor thin.
$3-$5 61 Isaac Collins OF 469.9 1.14 Excellent contact skills, little power, can take walks. I actually like his move to KC with it’s huge BABIP boosting park effects.
$3-$5 62 Jasson Domínguez OF 417.8 1.14 Might have path to full-time at-bats without Bellinger in the picture. Projections see a step forward for him in 2026, and he’s still only 23 years old.
$3-$5 63 Austin Hays OF 494.2 1.14 Nearly a 4 point jump in barrel rate in 2025 was really nice to see, but too many strikeouts caps his ceiling.
$3-$5 64 Jesús Sánchez OF 531.3 1.13 Contact quality took a steep dive after being traded to Houston. If it rebounds, could have a much higher ceiling than this ranking assumes.
$3-$5 65 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. OF 551.4 1.12 ACL injury means he’ll miss first few months of 2026 season.
$3-$5 66 Evan Carter OF 392.5 1.11 Injuries have stunted his development and lowered his ceiling. Made real plate discipline changes last year but still isn’t hitting the ball with authority.
$3-$5 67 Mike Yastrzemski OF 527.7 1.11 Dropped his strikeout rate below 20% in 2025 and still has pretty good contact quality metrics.
$3-$5 68 Trevor Larnach OF 520.5 1.11 Barrel rate dipped in 2025 but maintained plate discipline improvements from ’24. Might be just a platoon player.
$3-$5 69 Jakob Marsee OF 578.6 1.11 Exciting debut might have been BABIP fueled. Even if he doesn’t return to those heights, the skills are decent enough to return some value.
$3-$5 70 JJ Bleday OF 496.3 1.11 Big step backwards in 2025. Cincinnati should be a nice place to hit but he’s probably a platoon player in that lineup.
$3-$5 71 Josh Lowe OF 484.9 1.10 Got his strikeout rate under control in 2025 but contact quality cratered. Can he put it all together in ’26? Might be just a platoon player anyway.
$3-$5 72 Jung Hoo Lee 이정후 OF 603.6 1.10 Up-and-down season wound up being just average by the end. Projections see room for growth but I’m not sure from where.
$3-$5 73 Lars Nootbaar OF 573.1 1.10 Contact quality remained excellent but wasn’t pulling the ball as much in 2025. Solid floor thanks to good plate approach.
$3-$5 74 Jordan Beck OF 569.1 1.09 Had a solid first full season in the big leagues in 2025. Decent power but BABIP was a bit high and relied on Coors Field for a lot of his success (71 point wOBA home/away split).
$3-$5 75 Brenton Doyle OF 569.1 1.06 Really struggled in 2025 but underlying skills looked intact. Be prepared to sit him on the road.
$3-$5 76 Dylan Crews OF 475.0 1.04 Still waiting for him to acclimate to the big leagues. Ceiling might not be as high as his prospect reports thought.
$1-$2 77 Jahmai Jones OF 311.7 1.30 Contact quality and plate approach improved significantly in 2025 but still only a lefty masher on the short side of a platoon.
$1-$2 78 Rob Refsnyder OF 293.3 1.19 Contact quality improved significantly in 2025 but still only a lefty masher on the short side of a platoon.
$1-$2 79 Troy Johnston 1B/OF 385.2 1.16 Decent debut in Miami in 2025 and now gets to call Coors Field home.
$1-$2 80 Luke Raley 1B/OF 360.2 1.13 Injuries took a toll on him in 2025 and might be squeezed out of a roster spot in Seattle. Only a platoon hitter if he gets an opportunity somewhere.
$1-$2 81 Jake McCarthy OF 421.7 1.13 Speedster showed a little more pop in 2025 but his BABIP dropped by nearly 100 points. Now gets to call Coors Field home.
$1-$2 82 Dominic Canzone OF 406.5 1.13 Had the quietest 141 wRC+ season in 2025. Fantastic contact quality, decent plate approach, might not be able to hit lefties.
$1-$2 83 Garrett Mitchell OF 324.8 1.12 Injuries have prevented him from establishing himself in the big leagues. Still has plenty of tools but contact issues could be a problem.
$1-$2 84 Colby Thomas OF 388.8 1.11 Huge power, huge strikeouts. If he can figure out his contact rate, watch out.
$1-$2 85 CJ Kayfus 1B/OF 418.9 1.10 Decent power but contact issues could prevent him from hitting his ceiling.
$1-$2 86 Chase DeLauter OF 493.4 1.10 Top prospect who should have a path to everyday at-bats in Cleveland. Decent tools across the board without a standout skill.
$1-$2 87 Owen Caissie OF 470.4 1.09 Top prospect who should have a path to everyday at-bats in Miami. Power should play if he can get his strikeout rate under control.
$1-$2 88 Justin Crawford OF 472.0 1.09 Top prospect who should have a path to everyday at-bats in Philadelphia. Speedster like his dad and needs high BABIP to maintain production.
$1-$2 89 Sal Frelick OF 573.4 1.09 Improved his contact quality from poor to below average in 2025. Also improved contact rate and pull rate.
$1-$2 90 Emmanuel Rodriguez OF 287.2 1.08 Top prospect who could make his debut sometime in 2026. Injuries have really stunted his development, but could have an enticing power/patience profile if he’s healthy.
$1-$2 91 Heriberto Hernández OF 383.9 1.08 Decent debut in Miami in 2025. Got his strikeout rate sorted out in the big leagues but might only be the short side of a platoon.
$1-$2 92 Harrison Bader OF 501.5 1.08 Contact quality improved in 2025 but strikeout rate shot up too. Won’t have as nice a home ballpark in San Francisco.
$1-$2 93 Adolis García OF 606.8 1.08 Contact quality still looks good and his contact rate improved by 4 points in 2025. Power has slowly dried up anyway.
$1-$2 94 Nathan Lukes OF 382.9 1.08 Solid contact hitter with a bit of power. Might be squeezed out of a platoon role in a crowded Toronto outfield.
$1-$2 95 Carson Benge OF 452.3 1.07 Top prospect who should have a path to everyday at-bats in New York. Solid skills across the board, but doesn’t have an elite carrying tool
$1-$2 96 Nick Castellanos OF 575.2 1.07 Cast out of Philadelphia and landed in San Diego. He’s probably a part time player at this point, but still has some pop left in his bat.
$1-$2 97 Victor Robles OF 310.4 1.07 Up-and-down rookie season in 2025. He might have been pushed too quickly but had some spurts of success early in the year.
$1-$2 98 Andrew Benintendi OF 517.8 1.05 Started pulling the ball in the air a bunch and barrel rate improved by nearly 5 points in 2025.
$1-$2 99 Zac Veen OF 335.0 1.05
$1-$2 100 Cedric Mullins OF 489.5 1.05 Contact quality and plate discipline have been slowly eroding over the last few years. Breakout year in 2021 was a long time ago.
$1-$2 101 Gavin Sheets 1B/OF 519.2 1.03 Improved contact quality with full-time at-bats in San Diego but is probably on the strong side of a platoon now.
$1-$2 102 Parker Meadows OF 415.7 1.03 After promising season in 2024, injuries cost him most of ’25. Probably on the strong side of a platoon.
$1-$2 103 Walker Jenkins OF 291.1 0.99 Top prospect who could make his debut sometime in 2026. Injuries have really stunted his development, but good approach and contact rate give him a high floor.
$1-$2 104 Cam Smith OF 444.9 0.99 Up-and-down rookie season in 2025 but still only 23 years old. Needs to bring down strikeout rate but contact quality was pretty good.
$0-$1 105 Max Clark OF #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 106 Josue De Paula OF #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 107 Zyhir Hope OF #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 108 Lazaro Montes OF #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 109 Mike Sirota OF #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 110 Eduardo Quintero OF #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 111 Anthony Santander OF 635.0 1.18 Shoulder injury cost him nearly all of 2025. (Update: and now most of ’26 too.)
$0-$1 112 Justyn-Henry Malloy 1B/OF 344.7 1.11
$0-$1 113 Jake Bauers 1B/OF 319.6 1.10
$0-$1 114 Alex Call OF 320.7 1.10
$0-$1 115 Randal Grichuk OF 328.3 1.09
$0-$1 116 Will Benson OF 343.5 1.08
$0-$1 117 Jack Suwinski OF 346.7 1.08
$0-$1 118 Starling Marte OF 342.9 1.07
$0-$1 119 Lane Thomas OF 468.5 1.07
$0-$1 120 Mike Tauchman OF 391.9 1.06
$0-$1 121 James Outman OF 357.1 1.06
$0-$1 122 Jake Fraley OF 355.7 1.05
$0-$1 123 Matt Vierling OF 422.1 1.05
$0-$1 124 Carlos Cortes OF 270.4 1.05
$0-$1 125 Wenceel Pérez OF 454.4 1.04
$0-$1 126 Jerar Encarnacion OF 228.0 1.04
$0-$1 127 Zach Cole OF 382.5 1.04
$0-$1 128 Michael Conforto OF 436.5 1.02
$0-$1 129 Jake Mangum OF 399.7 1.02
$0-$1 130 Alan Roden OF 285.9 1.02
$0-$1 131 Austin Martin OF 285.6 1.01
$0-$1 132 Jake Meyers OF 431.5 1.01
$0-$1 133 George Valera OF 357.1 1.01
$0-$1 134 Denzel Clarke OF 320.4 1.01
$0-$1 135 Luis Matos OF 277.8 1.00
$0-$1 136 Chandler Simpson OF 447.7 1.00
$0-$1 137 Tommy Pham OF 412.2 0.99
$0-$1 138 Christopher Morel OF 414.7 0.99
$0-$1 139 Ryan Waldschmidt OF 423.9 0.97
$0-$1 140 Jordan Walker OF 432.7 0.96
$0-$1 141 Jhostynxon Garcia OF 381.8 0.94
$0 142 Jurickson Profar OF 672.3 1.21 Carried skills over from 2024 breakout after returning from his PED suspension.
$0 143 Max Kepler OF 423.5 1.06
$0 144 Andrew McCutchen OF 483.5 1.03
$0 145 Zach Dezenzo OF 179.2 1.03
$0 146 Joey Loperfido OF 332.8 1.03
$0 147 LaMonte Wade Jr. 1B/OF 336.9 1.02
$0 148 Tyler Black 1B/OF 381.6 1.01
$0 149 Mark Canha OF 321.6 1.00
$0 150 Sam Haggerty OF 229.9 1.00
$0 151 Griffin Conine OF 328.0 1.00
$0 152 Eli White OF 244.3 0.99
$0 153 Chas McCormick OF 245.6 0.99
$0 154 Eric Wagaman 1B/OF 415.3 0.98
$0 155 Heston Kjerstad OF 254.9 0.98
$0 156 Nolan Jones OF 344.6 0.97
$0 157 Jarred Kelenic OF 341.8 0.96
$0 158 MJ Melendez OF 392.8 0.96
$0 159 Will Brennan OF 352.5 0.96
$0 160 Connor Joe OF 338.2 0.95
$0 161 John Rave OF 292.3 0.95
$0 162 Hunter Renfroe OF 350.5 0.94
$0 163 Jonny DeLuca OF 270.6 0.94
$0 164 Drew Gilbert OF 299.5 0.94
$0 165 Jhonkensy Noel 1B/OF 296.9 0.94
$0 166 Dane Myers OF 271.6 0.93
$0 167 Kevin Alcántara OF 375.8 0.93
$0 168 Tirso Ornelas OF 324.5 0.93
$0 169 Alex Verdugo OF 390.3 0.93
$0 170 Alejandro Osuna OF 259.8 0.93
$0 171 Alek Thomas OF 377.9 0.92
$0 172 Blake Perkins OF 267.7 0.92
$0 173 Kameron Misner OF 285.7 0.92
$0 174 Tyrone Taylor OF 279.4 0.90
$0 175 Jose Siri OF 342.9 0.90
$0 176 Kyle Isbel OF 368.7 0.90
$0 177 Bryce Johnson OF 194.1 0.89
$0 178 Drew Waters OF 302.5 0.89
$0 179 Marco Luciano OF 364.2 0.88
$0 180 Myles Straw OF 277.0 0.87
$0 181 Victor Scott II OF 398.7 0.87
$0 182 Johan Rojas OF 250.1 0.86
$0 183 Dylan Carlson OF 230.4 0.85
$0 184 Jacob Young OF 340.1 0.84
$0 185 Robert Hassell III OF 279.1 0.83

Beat the Shift Podcast – Outfield Episode w/ Justin Mason

by
February 17, 2026

The Outfield episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Justin Mason

Strategy Section

  • Diversification
    • Should you diversify your player shares?
      • At the top? In the middle? At the bottom?
  • Kentucky Derby Selection (KDS)
    • What is KDS?
    • How should you set your KDS in 2026?
  • Outfielders
    • General player pool observations
    • Which statistics should you look to draft from the OF position?
    • Differences between 3 OF leagues and 5 OF leagues

ATC Undervalued Outfielders

Injury Update

 

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Outfield ADP Market Report: 1/31/2026

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February 11, 2026

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here. Read the rest of this entry »


Four Outfielders: Springer, Varsho, Abreu, & Lowe

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February 6, 2026


William Purnell-Imagn Images

Previous Outfield Reviews

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Four Outfielders: Cowser, Steer, Frelick, & Carter

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February 2, 2026


Jim Cowsert-Imagn Images

Previous Outfield Reviews

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Four Outfielders: Soderstrom, Garcia, Friedl, & Laureano

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January 27, 2026


Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

Previous Outfield Reviews

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Four Outfielders: Suzuki, Robert, Reynolds, & Cruz

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January 14, 2026


Syndication: The Enquirer

Previous Outfield Reviews

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Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered OF Rankings Follow Up

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January 13, 2026
Atlanta Braves right fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. celebrates after hitting a solo home run against the Washington Nationals during the ninth inning at Nationals Park.
Credit: Brad Mills-Imagn Images

The rankings beat marches on. Yesterday, you saw my 4×4 rankings for outfield and today I’ll share my FanGraphs Points rankings, as well as thoughts on the other formats.

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