Building on the bat speed piece from last week, I wanted to explore some deep-cut young finds based on swing length, blast contact rates, and all the rest. It turns out that if you swing fast, swing fast often, and make consistent contact, you are already highly valued, not just in fantasy but in baseball. Sorting these different metrics gives you a pretty similar list of names at the top of a chart.
For the first piece, I intentionally stuck to bat tracking metrics as much as possible, rather than outcomes, to compare the mechanical profiles of young hitters and to see whether we can use that on its own to predict future success. The problem is that the swing data on its own cannot tell the difference between an MVP candidate and a prospect who has been overmatched. Pete Crow-Armstrong sits in the same neighborhood as Marcelo Mayer, and no amount of bat speed or blast rate separates them.
Having now identified the three hitters who may have suffered the most bad luck so far this season, while still holding real fantasy value and possibly being available in your leagues, it’s time to dig into why.
These three names provide a wide scope of ways a hitter can underperform their expected output, giving not only three potential additions to your fantasy roster, but a wider methodology to consider when looking at why some hitters don’t perform to their expected offensive output.
1/7/2026 – Update with summaries for Harris, Pages, Anthony, Lile, Burleson, Trout, Wood, Rooker, Langford, and Chourio.
1/22/2026 – Update with summaries for Schwarber, Alvarez, Buxton, Yelich, Arozarena, Duran, Garcia, Bellinger, Altuve, and Hernandez.
2/02/2026 – Update and summaries for Cowser, Steer, Frelick, Carter, Soderstrom, Garcia, Friedl, and Laureano
2/10/2026 – Small update
2/12/2026 – Several items
Summaries for Abreu, Varsho, Springer, and Lowe
Updated ADP data from NFBC Draft Champions to NFBC Online Championships.
Changed the threshold for the amount a player moved in the rankings to 5 spots.
2/24/2026 – Small update, no real changes.
3/12/2026 – Small update with more injury information
3/19/2026 – Not much movement at the top, but some at the bottom.
Ranking Methodology
ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Online Championship Leagues.
$ Values are based on a standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net.
Five-Category Studs
These hitters provide value in every aspect of the game with speed, power, and batting average. There are no flaws in their game.
Pete Crow-Armstrong is going to be a divisive player in drafts. First, he’s way better in Roto using batting average with the extra emphasis on stolen bases and no downgrade for a sub-300 OBP. He has the potential to be a platoon bat(career .769 OPS vs RHP, .591 OPS vs LHP), but his elite defense will keep him on the field. Running some comps, they point to a career similar to Javier Báez and Rougned Odor.
Brent Rooker is no longer an enigma; he’s a steady source of 30 HR or more with 180 Runs+RBI. This past season, he seems to have traded off a hit of power (91.9 avgEV to 90.7) for more contact (68% Contact% to 72%). He even throws in a half dozen stolen bases.
Which James Wood will show up this season? The one who hit 24 HR with a .915 OPS in the first half or the one with just 7 HR and a .690 OPS (39% K%) in the second half. I dug and could not find why his Contact% dropped from 72% to 65%. Think of the hype if the halves were switched. Wood’s bat speed and the subsequent batted balls are comparable to the league’s best hitters. Depending on his Contact%, his range of outcomes could be a 50 HR hitter or a frustration who will dominate for a few weeks but be a drag for the rest of the season (see Oneil Cruz).
After three straight seasons of 30+ home runs, Yordan Alvarez’s injured ankle caused him to miss most of last season. I’m worried it’s not 100% healthy, since the team says he will be the primary DH. Besides the injury, his home run per flyball rate has dropped in each of the last three seasons (25% to 21% to 16% to 10%). High risk play. Note: Could be Util-only in league with a 20-game minimum.
Five-Category Pillars
These hitters are good across the board, but don’t match up to those in the first tier.
Jackson Chourio has almost the exact same stats over the last two seasons, down to the seven caught stealings, four triples, and three hit-by-pitches. Some growth should be expected from the 21-year-old, but how much and when are the keys. One issue is that he might be slowing down with a 0.5 ft/s loss in Sprint Speed and only six stolen base attempts in the second half compared to 22 in the first half. In 2024, he was the 40th overall player and 59th last year, according to our player rater. That’s a nice floor. The key will be if he can improve on the 20 HR power AND continue to steal bases.
The arrows are heading in all directions with Wyatt Langford. He improved his power (43% HardHit% to 48%), but his contact rate got worse (80% Contact% to 76%). He stole more bases (19 SB to 22) with a slower Sprint Speed (29.8 ft/s to 28.9). Additionally, he missed time twice for oblique injuries while playing through them before taking time off. He quit running as much in the second half (15 SB vs 7), and maybe he didn’t want to re-injure the oblique. It’s tough to evaluate him with so many moving parts. The 24-year-old will be useful, but the way and amount are still up in the air.
Byron Buxton finally stayed “healthy” (126 games, highest since 2017) and posted the season everyone hoped he could (35 HR, 24 SB, .264 AVG). Besides health, there was no real skill improvement or degradation.
Jarren Duran regressed a bit after a career year in 2024, but still hit 24 HR with 24 SB. I’m not sure there is another gear for the 29-year-old. He seemed to sell out for power, with his average exit velocity up 1 mph and his average launch angle up 2.5 degrees. At the same time, his Contact% dropped over 4% points.
The projections love Michael Harris II as a 20/20 talent with a positive batting average. Those projections are of no help to the fantasy managers who started the 24-year-old when he hit .210/.234/.317 with 6 HR in the first half last season. Around the All-Star game, he changed his swing and hit .299/.315/.530 in the second half. One factor keeping his fantasy value down is that he’ll be hitting at the bottom of the Braves lineup, thereby suppressing his plate appearances.
Christian Yelich hit over 20 HR (29) for the first time since 2019. At 34-years-old, no one seems to be buying a breakout with a full season, career high 26% K%, and career-low 90.2 mph Average Exit Velocity. Besides not hitting the ball as hard, his 2 degree Launch Angle was the lowest since his rookie season. Note: He might only be Utility-only in leagues that require 20 games for a position.
Elite Power Bat, Nothing Else
These bats have 40+ home run power with a ton of counting stats. They provide very little in speed and batting average.
Kyle Schwarber knocks the crap out of the ball. Since the shift was banned, he’s been posting better batting averages, removing his one weakness.
Balanced 2nd Division Bat (Pick Your Poison Tiers)
This tier and the next six tiers comprise the point in the draft where the talent starts to level off, and fantasy managers can focus on category specialists. Some of the unbalanced bats may provide some other category juice, but most of their value is wrapped up in a single category. This is another balanced tier, but in these instances, their trait is not being a drag in any category. They won’t allow a manager to catch up in any category.
Balanced 2nd Division Bat (Pick Your Poison Tiers)
Cody Bellinger raised his launch angle and hit for more power, leading to a six-year high of 29 HR. The problem is that he’s had similar power strokes, and they’ve quickly disappeared. Additionally, last season was the first time he accumulated over 600 PA since 2019. With such variance, pay for the projection, knowing the results are hopefully better but could be way worse.
After a career-best season, George Springer is hoping for a repeat, and if so, it would be a historic first.
Usually, top prospects get all the love, but that doesn’t seem to be the case with Roman Anthony going after pick 50. While he only hit 8 HR in just over 300 PA, signs point to elite power. He led the league with a 60% HardHit%. He was fifth in the league with a 94.5% avgEV. He hit 27 Barrels, but only 8 of them went for HR (normally 1 HR for every two Barrels). The 21-year-old’s only weakness was a 28% K%.Upside of 30 HR.
After being a speed-only option in his first two seasons, Maikel Garcia hit 16 HR in 2025. He didn’t hit the ball harder, but he started elevating (6 deg to 10 deg LA, 49% GB% to 43% GB%) and pulling (33% Pull% to 39% Pull%) the ball more. Hopefully, he keeps or improves on those gains. In most leagues, he will only qualify at third base.
The last memory of Andy Pages is of his post-season struggles (.078 AVG) and benching. I examined similar players and found that a horrible postseason doesn’t affect the hitter’s next season’s production (article coming later this week). The market disagrees on his projection (.255 AVG, 25 HR, 10 SB), so take the discount and roster away.
Steven Kwan is a consistent source of batting average and steals with at least double-digit home runs.
After a breakout 2024 campaign, Lawrence Butler took a step back, likely because of a couple of knee injuries, one chronic. Additionally, he started getting platooned to end the season. Mute expectations because his talent and playing time could be at risk.
Seiya Suzuki’s power took a step forward with 35 HR being a possible outcome if he can stay on the field. The rest of his profile shows no signs of aging.
Jose Altuve posted a career-low (excluding 2020) batting average (.262 AVG) along with his lowest stolen base total in four years (10 SB). He posted nearly the same line in three of the past four seasons. I expect the same or worse results as he ages.
While his surface stats don’t show it, Ceddanne Rafaela took a major step forward in 2025.
Boring, old Brandon Nimmo has shown no signs of slowing down, and the change in home park could boost his production.
While Ian Happ’s hitting skills should repeat, his stolen base skills are deteriorating, and 5 SB might be his upside.
Heliot Ramos has settled into 20 HR to 25 HR with a half dozen stolen bases and a .260 AVG. He was able to post a career-low 23% K% to help keep his batting average up. Otherwise, he hasn’t changed, and he become a consistent productive player.
The 2025 season was a turbulent season for Brenton Doyle on and off the field. I’m going to give him a mulligan and rewind to his 2025 projections.
Daylen Lile may not have one standout trait, but he doesn’t seem to have a weakness besides being on the Nationals. Projections have him around a 15/15 guy with a .270 AVG (Jeremy Pena/Otto Lopez production, but 100 picks later). He ended the season hitting cleanup and sat against just one of the last seven lefties the team faced. Nice sleeper.
Over his first three seasons, Noelvi Marte showed several different versions of himself, with any narrative having an explanation. His value is tough to set beyond a basic projection.
If Ramón Laureano can keep the contact and power gains he made in 2025 while playing a full season, he becomes a solid sleeper
TJ Friedl is a high-variance play in home runs and stolen bases. When looking at his projections, I would take the over in home runs and the under in stolen bases.
Jasson Domínguez has struggled to live up to the hype surrounding him. In 2025, he was better than an average hitter (103 wRC+), but wasn’t good enough to crack a healthy Yankees outfield. With Bellinger gone, he is back in the outfield mix even after being the fifth-worst fielding outfielder according to Baseball Savant’s Out-Above-Average. (Note: As of December 18th, he is just hitting .184/.304/.263 in the Dominican Winter League).
Power and Average but zero Speed (Pick Your Poison Tiers)
The major contributions from these hitters are home runs and batting average, but no stolen bases.
Power and Average but zero Speed (Pick Your Poison Tiers)
I was fully invested in Jackson Merrill last season, and that idea did not go as planned. After being a five-category contributor in 2024 (24 HR, 16 SB, .292 AVG), he was barely replacement-level in 2025 (16 HR, 1 SB, .264 AVG). He ranked as the 59th outfielder, just ahead of Gavin Sheets. Before a June concussion, he was batting .304/.349/.474 with 5 HR and 1 SB (2 CS) in 186 PA. After returning from the concussion and until an ankle injury, he hit just .219/.286/.354. And when he returned from the ankle injury, he hit .275/.320/.626 with 7 HR in September. I’m not sure the steals will return, so pay or a .280 AVG with 25 HR. A Yandy Díaz or Corey Seager clone.
With the trade of Willson Contreras to the Red Sox, Alec Burleson takes over first base duties for the Cardinals. The 27-year-old improved both his Contact% (83% to 84%) and Hardhit% (41% to 43%) last year. The increase in hard contact led to a career-high .290 AVG and .169 ISO. While he didn’t get platooned to end last season, it is a possibility (career .606 OPS vs LHP, .775 OPS vs RHP).
If Bryan Reynolds’s shoulder heals, I could see him return to 25 HR and double-digit steals instead of the projected 20 HR/6 SB. I want to see him playing in the field and attempting steals in Spring Training to show that his shoulder is no longer an issue.
A shoulder injury ruined the first two months of Spencer Steer’s season, but he turned it around. With his current projections, I might expect a higher batting average and home runs but fewer stolen bases.
Power Focused (Pick Your Poison Tiers)
The major contribution from these hitters is home runs. The major contribution from these hitters is stolen bases.
Riley Greene has transitioned into a solid power option against righties (32 HR vs RHP, 4 HR vs LHP). Even as the 25-year-old struggled against lefties (career .680 OPS vs LHP, .825 OPS vs RHP), the Tigers started him in 157 games. The 30 HR power is legit, but he has a couple of flaws. He struckout 31% of the time last year as he struggled with fastballs (12% SwStr%). Additionally, I don’t expect him to start stealing bases with his Sprint Speed dropping from 28.1 ft/s (71st percentile) to 27.7 ft/s (59th percentile) to 26.7 ft/s (31st percentile) over the past three seasons.
Teoscar Hernandez is more well-rounded than just a power bat by chipping in a few stolen bases and ~.250 AVG. The 33-year-old’s power has been on a steady five-year decline. If the decline continues, he could be closer to 20 HR than his projected mid-to-high 20 HR totals.
Jo Adell may have improved his plate discipline enough to be a consistent home run threat.
Taylor Ward is projected for ~25 HR, 5 SB, and a .245 AVG. I could see bumping the home run number up to 30, but not any more.
Kyle Stowers turned his career around with career bests in power and contact metrics. He should be good for 25 HR to 35 HR. His batting average could dip as his BABIP regresses downward, but at least the average isn’t a major drain like in his first two seasons.
After coming off shoulder surgery, Daulton Varsho traded off contact for more power. He could be a source of 30+ HR and dozen or so stolen bases but a drain in batting average.
Over the past three seasons, Mike Trout has averaged 18 HR, 3 SB, and a .232 AVG. Those results are similar to those of Max Kepler and Kody Clemens. And I’m not sure of Trout’s upside at this point. He’s not running. A ballooning strikeout rate (32% last season) limits his batting average. Maybe managers will latch onto his late-season swing changes to make him more than a bench streamer.
Trent Grisham improved in two ways to help him the most: make more contact (80% Contact%, 2nd highest of his career) and hit the ball harder (career-high Barrel% and HardHit%). The 34 HR were double his previous high in 2022, and now all signs point to some downward regression. His 51 Barrels would normally produce 27 HR. Projections tag him with ~25 HR. Baseball Savant has him with 27.9 xHR, and had him with 29 HR if all his batted balls were in Yankee Stadium. Also, I would not expect any stolen bases after he stole a total of four over the past two seasons. I see him around a .230 AVG, 25 HR, and 2 SB.
Fantasy managers need to have a reality check when it comes to Jac Caglianone. Since he’s only shown the ability to hit for power in the majors, he’s just an accumulator. There is no hope for more than 1 or 2 SB, but he could be a positive contributor in batting average. Or he could repeat 2025 and be nearly unplayable. Gamble away.
Speed Focused (Pick Your Poison Tiers)
The major contribution from these hitters is stolen bases.
Jakob Marsee should be amongst the league leaders in stolen bases with double-digit home runs if given a full-time role. The biggest disagreement will be with his batting average. Will it be closer to the projections, .200 AVG to .220 AVG, or the nearly .300 AVG hitter he was in 2025.
Average Focused (Pick Your Poison Tiers)
The major contribution of these hitters is batting average.
Jung Hoo Lee: Before the season began, Lee dealt with a back issue that flared up in mid-June. His back could have bothered him for a while but after resting at the All-Star break, he hit .293/.345/.414 from then on. While he should post a great batting average, all signs point to 10 HR and 10 SB. Also, he could end up getting platooned with a career .610 OPS against lefties and .756 OPS against righties.
Speed and Power but Average Sink (Pick Your Poison Tiers)
These hitters provide a combination of home runs and stolen bases, but are a major drag on batting average.
Speed and Power but Average Sink (Pick Your Poison Tiers)
During his age-30 season, Randy Arozarena may have posted his career year with highs in plate appearances (709 PA) and home runs (27 HR). At the same time, his .238 AVG was a drag. Besides the $7 he earned in 2024, he’s earned at least $17 in every season since 2021. Steady add.
While Luis Robert has been a 30/30 “full-time” player over his career, he doesn’t play enough to reach that level. Roster only if getting an extreme discount.
The 32-year-old Adolis Garcia has struggled for two straight seasons while dealing with several injuries. He’s going to need to stop and reverse several negative trends as he ages into his mid-30’s.
As Dylan Crews enters in age-24 season, he needs to show improvement with his power and/or contact skills to take a step forward to be at least a league-average hitter (77 wRC+ in ’15). His steals can be valuable as long as he’s not a drain in other categories. If he were on a better team, there would be a risk of a demotion, but the Nationals will have nothing to play for and will keep sending him out.
Oneil Cruz needs to improve in several areas (health, platoon issues, strikeout rate) while not backtracking in any other area. He is a solid source of power and speed. Just make sure to have a solid batting average in place before adding him.
It’ll be tough to target Colton Cowser since he’s a platoon bat with major contact issues. If a fantasy team is set on batting average, he could be an option for his home run and stolen bases.
Speed and Average (Pick Your Poison Tiers)
These hitters provide a combination of speed and batting average.
Sal Frelick took a positive step forward in both his contact and hard hit rates last season. The key for him going forward is maintaining or improving on them … and not regressing backwards.
Only a narrow roto build will fully utilize Chandler Simpson’s skills. He does feel like a corrective action if a team misses on steals and needs to catch up.
Platoon Bats
These guys are strong-side platoon bats who will max out around 400 to 500 plate appearances.
While a strong-side platoon bat, the consistent Kerry Carpenter is a solid bet to hit around a .265 AVG with 25 HR.
Wilyer Abreu is a solid platoon bat whose upside is limited until he can prove that he can hit lefties.
A significant platoon disadvantage and checkered injury history limits Evan Carter’s upside.
Hopefully, Josh Lowe improves from his 2025 season, where he struggled in all aspects of his game, but I have little hope the Angels can help him rebound.
Mickey Moniak has turned into a solid platoon bat (career .497 OPS vs LHP, .760 OPS vs RHP) with some decent road numbers (career .745 OPS at home, .701 on the road, 92 wRC+ for both). He took a step forward in 2025 with a 74% Contact% and 45% HardHit%, both career highs. With more and harder contact, he hit 24 HR with a .270 AVG. I could see a repeat of the 25 HR with a solid .260 AVG with six to 12 stolen bases.
Parker Meadows is heading in the wrong direction. His HardHit% and Contact% have dropped every season. Prorating his 213 PA (missed time due to arm and quad injuries) to 639 PA, he is at 12 HR and 12 SB with a .215 AVG. The team has sat him against lefties (.502 OPS in ’25), but he’s not been good against righties (.653 OPS in ’25). I’d prefer to add him late and use him as a bench streaming option.
Time Shares
These hitters don’t have a set role just yet, but have the skills to be positive fantasy contributors.
Combining his minor league and major league numbers, Dylan Beavers accrued 22 HR and 25 SB. Steamer600 puts him at 17 HR and 16 SB with a .243 AVG, which seems reasonable. Accruing full-time at-bats will be the biggest issue for him since the Orioles have four regular outfielders and several options at the DH spot. His 26% K% could be a drag on his batting average, like in September when he hit .167 AVG.
“Don’t it always seem to go, you don’t know what you got ‘til it’s gone.”
Joni Mitchell may not be a roto savant, but even she might agree that the best part of the fantasy baseball season is research-and-draft season. Every day, from February until Opening Day, is so incredibly thrilling – nonstop spring training news, draft rankings adjustments, and player pool deep-dives – there’s always some rabbit hole of research to go down. As we continue studying and gaining confidence in the fresh player pool and a new year’s ADP, more questions arise, and the more work there is to be done.
Whether in NFBC or best ball contests, high-volume early drafters subconsciously form bad habits in draft rooms. We get too comfortable targeting and drafting the same players over and over. Conversely, we avoid players who have burned us in previous seasons and those we have some subjective bias against. Rarely do we deep dive and reassess those players because we’ve already made up our minds. That’s why it’s crucial to explore every nook and cranny of a positional tier. We have all fallen victim to draft room paralysis, where a decision between several similarly ranked shortstops or starting pitchers becomes gut-wrenching when we’re on the clock. This preseason column aims to help with those tough calls. We will explore some of the most confusing ADP clusters, by position, beyond the simple “I need to boost my batting average, so I’m taking this guy.”
Let’s dive into these ADP pockets logically and systematically, reviewing four analytical components of the players within each cluster.
Playing Time (and Role)
Health/Durability
Skills/Categorical Contributions
Context of Team Offense
ADP Cluster: Post-300 Outfielders
ADP from 17 NFBC 12-team Online Championships (OC) drafts over the last five days (March 12 – March 16)
These outfielders are drafted in the Rounds 25-26 of OCs, typically as an OF5. For shallower 12-teamers with 23-25 rounds, some of these hitters may be early-season waiver targets. Carson Benge is the only one here without major league experience. Jasson Dominguez is rumored to start the season in the minors. Cam Smith, Matt Wallner, Cedric Mullins and Jung Hoo Lee are projected as everyday starters in their respective lineups. Domínguez, Smith, Wallner, and Mullins were all utilized as part of a platoon for parts of the 2025 season.
Playing Time (and Role)
For Jasson Domínguez, it’s a matter of when, not if. The former heralded prospect and top 150 ADP selection from 2025 has seen his 2026 draft stock fall over the last couple of months with expectations of starting the season in Triple-A. After all, the Yankees re-signed Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham, Giancarlo Stanton (the DH) is healthy (for now) and the great Aaron Judge mans right field. Manager Aaron Boone wants Domínguez to be playing every day, but that opportunity doesn’t yet present itself in the majors. Boone’s problem though is that Domínguez has been forcing his hand with exceptional production in spring training – .371/.395/.686, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 3 SB, 170 wRC+ in 38 plate appearances. Domínguez had a decent rookie season (.257/.331/.388, 58 R, 23-of-27 SB in 429 PA), but his playing time was reduced down the stretch and he essentially didn’t play in the playoffs.
For the last couple of months, RosterResource projected Cam Smith as a short side platoon outfielder. That designation has been shifted to full-time right fielder batting eighth on Opening Day. His RosterResource batting order projection will certainly influence his market price these next couple of weeks. What is more important for drafters is to solidify whether they’re buying or fading based on his profile, not projected playing time, because the latter could fluctuate all season like it did in his rookie year. Smith hit lefties better (130 wRC+, .191 ISO) than he did righties (75, .098), but the sample is a small one and not predictive. Jake Myers will be play centerfield, and the other two spots will be split between Smith and lefty bats Joey Loperfido (welcome back to Houston!) and Zach Cole. Smith played 132 games in right field last season.
Matt Wallner can absolutely mash and he may earn the opportunity for full-time at-bats in the context of a weaker lineup that needs him. In 97 plate appearances against lefties last season, Wallner actually had a higher wRC+ (118) than he did against righties (113 in 295 PA) as well as a similar ISO (.247 vs. RHP, .267 vs. LHP). So far this spring, he is hitting .294 with two homers, a stolen base, and a 14.6% walk rate, through 41 plate appearances.
Cedric Mullins signed with the Rays in December in what will the first Opening Day in his career that he doesn’t don an Orioles uniform. A left-handed hitter, Mullins has avoided being platooned for most of his career, but experienced a little bit of it the last two seasons. We expect the Rays to include him in their lineup against both lefties and righties, though if he struggles, this outfield room is loaded with alternatives, including recently acquired rookie prospect, Jacob Melton. Mullins is 31 and has never been an elite defender in center, posting negative UZR’s in all but one season. Mullins dealt with a back flare-up a couple of weeks ago, but appears healthy now. Through his first nine spring games, Mullins has two homers and a swipe.
Carson Benge is the sweet-swinging, lefty-batting, first-round selection of the Mets in the 2024 draft. He is having a strong camp (.367/.406/.433) and is projected to crack the Opening Day roster. Though he will likely begin the year on the strong side of a right field platoon with slick defender, Tyrone Taylor.
Jung Hoo Lee was a KBO star who signed a 6-year ($18.8M AAV) deal with the Giants two years ago, missed most of the 2024 season with injury, and produced mediocre results in 2025. Lee played 147 of 149 games in centerfield last season, but is being moved back to his original position from his KBO days (right field), primarily because of the offseason acquisition of Harrison Bader. Lee was a better hitter against righties (118 wRC+) than lefties (77) last season, though new manager Tony Vitello will likely start him every game. If Lee happens to stumble against lefties around a time when Luis Matos or Jerar Encarnacion heat up, it’s possible for Lee to fall into a platoon, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Health/Durability
None of the outfielders in this cluster have current injuries to worry about, but most of them have had their fair share of injuries over the years.
Cedric Mullins – The oldest of this group (31), Mullins has had a few lower-body related injury stints over the last few seasons. He missed time with a right hamstring strain last spring and missed over a month with a right groin strain in May of 2023.
Jasson Domínguez – He tore his UCL at the end of the 2023 minor-league season and had Tommy John surgery. He suffered a left oblique strain in the summer of 2024 and missed a couple of games (no IL stint) in June of 2025 with a left thumb contusion.
Jung Hoo Lee – He remained relatively health in his South Korea days, though he broke his ankle and missed half the 2023 season. The following year, his first in the Majors, he dislocated his shoulder crashing into an outfield wall in mid-May and underwent season-ending surgery. He tweaked his ankle in the WBC last week, but it turned out to be a minor issue.
Matt Wallner – He missed five weeks early last season after suffering a left hamstring strain. He also dealt with oblique strains in each of the past two seasons. Not surprising considering the big dude swings hard and carries a big stick.
Carson Benge missed his first season of college at Oklahoma State after an elbow injury caused him to undergo Tommy John surgery. His injury was pitching-related, and the two-way player shifted his focus to hitting and playing the outfield.
Cam Smith does not have an injury history other than minor nicks and bruises.
The two who I’d slightly ding fantasy value for their health and durability are Mullins and Wallner.
Skills/Categorical Contributions
Matt Wallner is in a class of his own here because of his prolific power. Some slight data manipulation here, but Wallner’s 16.1% barrel rate is tied with Mike Trout’s for seventh in the majors among hitters with at least 900 plate appearances since 2023. The guys ahead of him: Aaron Judge (26.2%), Shohei Ohtani (21.5%), Giancarlo Stanton (19.1%), Kyle Schwarber (17.7%), Juan Soto (17%), and Oneil Cruz (16.2%) – elite company, indeed. Wallner hit 22 home runs in 104 games (392 PA) last season, and has 30+ HR upside if he can stay off the IL. His batting average won’t be helpful, but he may throw in a few stolen bases and is one of the rare late-round boons for fantasy squads that might be power deficient.
Cedric Mullins had that magical 30-30 (HR-SB) season in 2021. In his past four seasons, he has swiped at least 30 bags twice, and has averaged 16.5 home runs. He has been a batting average killer though – .228 since 2023. A fair expectation for Mullins in his first season with the Rays would be 12-15 homers, 25 stolen bases, 100-130 R/RBI (combined) and another season with a sub-.240 average.
Jung Hoo Lee has the highest batting average upside of the cluster. He hit .319 in his first 30 games of 2025, went through a rough three-month stretch from May through July (.218), then hit .306 from August 1 until the end of the season. He is capable of hitting .290+ over a full season. His only positive roto category contribution was runs scored (73 in 150 games). He is a solid floor contributor, but you won’t see many projection models bless him with anything more than 10 HR and 10 SB. His allure lies within his potential batting average contributions.
Jasson Domínguez, Cam Smith, and Carson Benge are the three young, upside guys. All would project for double-digit homers and swipes with 500+ plate appearances. Dominguez’s distribution would lie higher on the SBs, though he is capable of 20-plus homers if he earns consistent playing time. Domínguez sported a 49.6% hard-hit rate and stole 23 bases on 28 attempts in 429 plate appearances last season. Smith and Benge have 20-HR, 15-SB potential though neither is likely to get there in 2026. Benge is certainly intriguing as a toolsy prospect with the eventual possibility of being a five-category contributor. Note that he only has 103 plate appearances at Triple-A and he struggled there (.178/.272/.311) after crushing it with a .300+ AVG and .400+ OBP in 92 games at High-A and Double-A.
Context of Team Offense
The best team context here is Domínguez’s with the Yankees, but that is if he is able to earn consistent playing time. Wallner’s team context is sneaky as a middle of the order power hitter, though his counting category contributions hinge on Byron Buxton, Luke Keaschall and Royce Lewis staying healthy, which may be asking a lot. Based on home parks, divisions and other hitters in the lineup, the other four from this cluster have a neutral context.
Verdict (with value grades, A-F)
Jasson Domínguez (A-) may have been overpriced in the 125-150 ADP range last season, but he is being greatly undervalued this draft season, at half the cost, because of lack of role clarity. Dominguez is pushing to crack the Opening Day roster and deserves it, but it would be better if he got the reps in Triple-A. Make the low-cost investment in Dominguez late in your drafts if your roster doesn’t have a bench stash already, and you believe that his everyday role with the Yankees is simply a matter of when.
Jung Hoo Lee (B+) won’t wow us in any category other than potentially batting average. He has a high floor and could easily outproduce his draft cost with another 600+ plate appearances. Perhaps he surprises us with a bit more than what models are projecting.
Matt Wallner (B+) is the ideal power-boost option towards the end of drafts, specifically for folks whose roster construction feel light on power after 20 rounds. I’m less worried about a platoon split than oblique issues or other ailments resurfacing.
Cam Smith (B) and Carson Benge (B-) have the widest range of potential outcomes. Spending a chunk of the season isn’t off the table for either of them, but less so for Smith. Benge rocked a 81% contact rate, and despite last season’s struggles with consistency at the plate in Triple-A, he is less likely than Smith to tank us in the batting average category. Smith could fall into a platoon with Loperfido or Cole, but this is unlikely to happen for a prolonged time period.
Cedric Mullins (C+) may seem like a sneaky and savvy late-round option due to his HR-SB upside, but Tropicana Field is a downgrade from Oriole Park and his projected batting average is a massive detractor to his overall projected value.
After starting with the second largest position group last week, the Ottoneu rankings push continues with the largest position group this week. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.
Changelog
2/20/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Added player notes for all players in tier $1-$2 and above. Updated tier placement for 21 players (green = moved up, red = moved down).
3/18/2026: Updated tier placement for 16 players based on 2026 draft results.
Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Here are few more notes about my process:
Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.
Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 75-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. Let’s get into it.
Unquestionably productive when healthy, but has never played in more than 150 games in a single season and has averaged just 118 games per season over the last five years.
Plate discipline continued to improve in 2025, and contact quality was still excellent, but wOBA still fell by nearly 50 points. I’m looking for a bounce back in ’26.
Produces like a top 10 OF by Pts/PA but the question is always how many games will he play. 2025 was the first time he had more than 500 PAs since 2017.
Still having trouble turing raw skills into a complete package. Strikeout issues a huge red flag. Ceiling is still high if he can figure out plate approach.
Huge finish to the season looks like it was BABIP fueled (.380 BABIP in 2H). Excellent contact skills, little power, no walks — reminds me of Steven Kwan.
Might have path to full-time at-bats without Bellinger in the picture. Projections see a step forward for him in 2026, and he’s still only 23 years old.
Injuries have stunted his development and lowered his ceiling. Made real plate discipline changes last year but still isn’t hitting the ball with authority.
Had a solid first full season in the big leagues in 2025. Decent power but BABIP was a bit high and relied on Coors Field for a lot of his success (71 point wOBA home/away split).
Top prospect who could make his debut sometime in 2026. Injuries have really stunted his development, but could have an enticing power/patience profile if he’s healthy.
Top prospect who could make his debut sometime in 2026. Injuries have really stunted his development, but good approach and contact rate give him a high floor.
As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.You can read all the Market Reports here.Read the rest of this entry »
