Archive for Ottoneu

Ottoneu Hot Right Now: April 26th, 2023

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

  1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
  2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
  3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: April 28–30

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

April 28–30
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
TOR 0.326 105 SEA 0.303
MIN 0.306 96 KCR 0.272
DET 0.268 93 BAL 0.331
MIA 0.299 93 CHC 0.350
WSN 0.294 104 PIT 0.334
BOS 0.333 100 CLE 0.292
NYM 0.326 97 ATL 0.345
CHW 0.299 108 TBR 0.385
TEX 0.343 101 NYY 0.308
HOU 0.319 102 PHI 0.344
MIL 0.324 103 LAA 0.326
COL 0.301 111 ARI 0.318
OAK 0.302 91 CIN 0.298
LAD 0.341 107 STL 0.338
SDP 0.301 98 SFG 0.321
Giants-Padres play in Mexico City

I’ve started pulling current season data for team offenses to assess matchups rather than continue utilizing the rest-of-season projections. That means there are a bunch of teams who were projected to be good who are currently underperforming and vice versa.

It’s a pretty rough slate of matchups this weekend. It doesn’t help that the Giants and Padres are playing in Mexico City which is at a higher altitude than Denver. The ball should be flying in that short two-game series.

Teams with easier schedules include the A’s, Cubs, Orioles, Twins, Red Sox, Reds, and Royals.

Teams with tougher schedules include the aforementioned Giants and Padres and also the Angels, Astros, Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Guardians, Mariners, Mets, Nationals, Rockies, White Sox. and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starting Pitchers
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB% HR/9
Kyle Muller 49.68% CIN 0.298 5.31 3.4% 1.14
Nick Pivetta 31.73% CLE 0.292 5.16 15.9% 1.83
Dean Kremer 9.30% DET 0.268 6.57 11.3% 2.55
Vince Velasquez 0.96% WSN 0.294 4.12 13.3% 1.03
Caleb Kilian? 0.32% MIA 0.299 4.17 11.1%
Kilian’s stats from FanGraphs Depth Charts projections

Despite all those poor matchups, there are a handful of starter’s I’m comfortable recommending. All three of the A’s starters scheduled to take the mound during their home series against the Reds fall below our 50% owned threshold. I’m recommending Kyle Muller again, but if you want to roll the dice with Ken Waldichuk or possibly even Drew Rucinski 루친스키, you could drip them into your lineups.

Nick Pivetta bounced back after a rough start against the Angels a few weeks ago. Last weekend, he held the Brewers to three runs in 5.2 innings, striking out seven and walking just one. He draws the Guardians at home this weekend and that should be a pretty easy matchup for him since Cleveland’s offense hasn’t really started clicking yet.

Dean Kremer followed up his gem of a start against the Nationals with a decent start against the Red Sox yesterday. He allowed four runs in 5.2 innings, striking out five. He did allow a pair of home runs which has been a huge issue for him. The Tigers simply aren’t hitting for power right now and the Orioles will be playing in cavernous Comerica Park. This is a matchup that should go the way his one against the Nationals did.

After two rough starts to open the season, Vince Velasquez has actually been pitching pretty well for the red-hot Pirates. He shut out the Cardinals and Reds and escaped Coors Field with just three runs allowed. Across his last three starts, he’s earned 6.7 points per inning pitched. He’s scheduled to start against the Nationals on Saturday.

The final recommendation is a little up in the air. The Cubs will need to call up a starter to take Jameson Taillon’s spot in the rotation this weekend but it’s a little unclear who it’ll be. Caleb Kilian or Adrian Sampson 샘슨 make the most sense with the former being listed on the Roster Resource Probables Grid. Whoever it ends up being, they’ll have a nice matchup against the Marlins in Miami.

Recap: April 21–23

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
Tyler Wells 7 51.0 7.29
Kyle Gibson 6.1 42.4 6.69
Zach Plesac 5 15.0 3.00
Hunter Gaddis N/A
Bailey Falter N/A
Total 18.1 108.4 5.91
Season Total 244.1 848.7 3.47

Two clear wins from the two Orioles starters make this a pretty good week. Hunter Gaddis ended up relegated to long relief and then to the minors and Bailey Falter’s start was pushed back to today.


Ottoneu Cold Right Now: April 24, 2023

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature, primarily written by either Chad Young or Lucas Kelly, with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

  1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
  2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Kris Bubic, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 70.83%

In last week’s Hot Right Now, I worried that I would be following up my entry on Kris Bubic with a Cold Right Now entry today. And here we are. With the news that Bubic is having Tommy John Surgery, he’s an easy drop. As intriguing as Bubic was a week ago, he’s still a guy with a rocky track record and a few decent innings. He was worth speculating on when you would learn quickly what he would be, but he’s not worth stashing for 18 months.

Jeffrey Springs, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 33.33%

Like Bubic, Springs is having Tommy John. Unlike Bubic, he is an established high-level performer. But I still think he is a drop when you need the cash. I have a lot more confidence that Springs will be useful when he gets back, but holding him all of this year and likely most or all of next without getting any production just isn’t worth it.

Alex Vesia, Leagues with a Cut – 25.00%

Vesia is a talented reliever who put up excellent rates and a nice big pile of strikeouts last year, finishing with 7.92 P/IP. So far this year he is at 0.06 P/IP. 7.92 is good. 0.06 is not. The Statcast sliders on Baseball Savant are not perfect, but the can sometimes tell a story and this is one of those times:

The velocity is fine, but no one is chasing and the contact is much, much harder. The pitches look the same in terms of movement and velocity, and the pitch mix hasn’t changed, but the results are just a mess. He isn’t an important enough fantasy RP to wait this out – drop him and replace him with someone performing. But keep him on your watchlist – he could easily turn things around quickly.

Cold Performers

Nick Gordon: 49 PA,  .104/.122/.146, -0.62 P/G

Gordon has been a roller coaster for me. The minor league track record didn’t really inspire me; but then he showed last year that he could hit the ball well. Plus, in Ottoneu he is listed as Nick Chad Gordon, and there just aren’t that many Chads readily available to me in Ottoneu.

Gordon is making a lot more contact and getting more pitches in the zone, resulting in a big drop in K-rate and in BB-rate. But the quality of contact is down and so the results have cratered. Now Gordon is barely playing, having made just one start in the last ten days.

Gordon is still on 39.74% of rosters, but that number should be coming down. I cut him off one of my rosters and I see no real reason to sit on him, as it doesn’t look like he’ll even play enough to get out of this funk.

Josh Naylor: 71 PA, .161/.239/.258, 1.88 P/G

Unlike Gordon, Naylor is rostered almost universally, and moving on from him will be much tougher for managers who were high on him pre-season. Managers like me.

But the story with Naylor is pretty straight-forward. His walk rate is up. His strikeout-rate is down. His barrel-rate is up. His .221 wOBA is the worst of his career; his .350 xwOBA is the best of his career. His BABIP is .189. There is no reason to think the results will continue to be that bad when the inputs are so strong. Sunday, even with a lefty on the mound, he was 2-3 with a walk. Maybe that is the start of things turning around?

Regardless, stay the course. If you want to leave him on your bench for a bit, that is fine, but he is going to be in my lineups against RHP.

Luis Robert: 47 PA, .111, .149, .244, 0.65 P/G over the last two weeks

Robert got off to such a strong start but has gone ice cold after that start. As of April 8, he had four HR and looked like an MVP candidate, but he has done nothing since then, hitting just one HR and posting the line above.  Over that time, his plate discipline has stayed the same, he’s been hitting the ball hard, but his BABIP has fallen.

The problem is that his plate discipline numbers have been steadily…not good. Coming up, the concern with Robert was the plate discipline and walking just 2.2% of the time and striking out 26.9% of the time won’t really work. Robert is never going to walk much, but he could easily double that rate while cutting back on the K’s to get back to where he was the last couple of years.

It goes without saying that Robert is not a cut, so the real question is if he is a buy-low or a sell-low, given the below-average line for the season so far. I think it’s more the former. His chase rate looks good and his overall underlying plate discipline numbers seem fine. His big drop-off so far is in contact on pitches outside the zone, which is not generally where he will do his most damage anyway. I think the strikeouts come down if he continues to make the swing/take decisions he is making.

Michael Kopech: 20.2 IP, 0.06 P/IP

Kopech has tantalizing talent, but the performance has not yet been there, and this year is the worst yet. In 2021, he was a decent reliever who got some looks as a starter. In 2022, he was a streamable SP, but not much more. This year? With 14 BB and 14 barrels in 96 batters faced, he’s either handing out free bases or getting crushed in almost 30% of plate appearances. The is not a recipe for success.

When debating whether a struggling performer is a buy-low, or a sell, or a cut, you need to answer two questions: How likely do I think it is that he bounces back; and if he does bounce back, what kind of performance will I get? With Robert, the strikeouts are ugly, which gives some risk to a rebound, but you’re dreaming of elite performance. With Naylor, the underlying numbers are good enough that I am pretty confident he’ll perform.

With Kopech, I don’t love the answer to either question. He isn’t just suffering through a rough stretch – his command has failed him and hitters are teeing off. It is going to take some work to fix that. And even if he does fix that, and he gets back to his 2022 level (4.25 P/IP), that just isn’t anything to get that excited about. So what are you doing waiting on him?

Kopech is rostered in 92.63% of leagues at a median salary of $10 – a price he has never been worth at any point in his career. If you want to suffer with him on your bench for $1-$2, maybe even $3, I get it. But I am cutting (or if someone will take him, trading) at basically any price. Especially if you are paying him $10, $12, $15 or more, you can do better playing the wire with that cash than you can tying it up in Kopech.


Six Picks Strategy

Yesterday, I introduced you to Six Picks and, based on a big jump in the number of entries, it seems like there is some interest in Ottoneu’s free, simple, and fun daily fantasy game. And that means that there is probably some interest in my thoughts on strategy for Six Picks. Plus, I might have mentioned yesterday that I would share thoughts on how I play, so I guess I should do that.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: April 24–27

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

April 24–27
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
PHI 0.340 106 SEA 0.302
CLE 0.296 101 COL 0.311
BAL 0.343 95 BOS 0.330
TBR 0.389 94 HOU 0.318
CIN 0.311 116 TEX 0.328
TOR 0.324 105 CHW 0.311
ATL 0.348 98 MIA 0.304
MIN 0.300 96 NYY 0.322
MIL 0.329 103 DET 0.277
LAA 0.316 107 OAK 0.292
ARI 0.318 94 KCR 0.264
SFG 0.328 90 STL 0.349
PIT 0.340 95 LAD 0.347
NYM 0.330 97 WSN 0.294
CHC 0.347 98 SDP 0.308

I’ve started pulling current season data for team offenses to assess matchups rather than continue utilizing the rest-of-season projections. That means there are a bunch of teams who were projected to be good who are currently underperforming and vice versa.

Teams with easier schedules include the Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Mets, Royals, and Yankees.

Teams with tougher schedules include the A’s, Mariners, Marlins, Rangers, Reds, Tigers, and White Sox.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starting Pitchers
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB% HR/9
Brad Keller 49.36% ARI 0.318 4.37 5.7% 0.43
Jhony Brito 40.06% MIN 0.300 4.12 6.3% 0.60
Kyle Gibson 33.01% DET 0.277 4.76 7.4% 1.14
José Suarez 29.49% OAK 0.292 6.15 0.0% 1.54
Zach Plesac 13.46% COL 0.311 4.55 10.0% 1.38
Griffin Canning 8.33% OAK 0.292 4.19 12.2% 0.87
Colin Rea 0.32% DET 0.277 4.16 11.9% 0.84

Brad Keller sits just below our 50% ownership cutoff and he’s been a common recommendation in these columns this year. He’s continued to struggle with his command early this season but he’s also only given up a single home run and just 14 hits in 21 innings. He gets a nice matchup against the Diamondbacks in their dinger suppressing ballpark next week.

Another common recommendation, Kyle Gibson lines up to face the Tigers two starts in a row, once this weekend and again on Thursday. His last start against the White Sox didn’t go super well — four runs on seven hits and two walks with just a single strikeout in 5.1 innings — but the other three starts he’s made this season have been solid. His two-step against Detroit is just too good to pass up.

Colin Rea is also lined up to face the Tigers next week. He’s been a serviceable starter for the Brewers after Brandon Woodruff went down with his shoulder injury. He had a pretty good season in Japan last year and has looked decent in his return to the States. He held the Padres to a single run across 5.2 innings in his first start but was knocked around by the Mariners in his second.

José Suarez and Griffin Canning are scheduled to face the A’s at home next week. That’s a pretty juicy matchup, but beware the high home run park factor of Angel Stadium. Suarez hasn’t been good this year, with a walk rate that matches his strikeout rate. A date against Oakland seems like a good candidate for a get-right start. Canning is a bit more interesting. Injuries derailed a very promising start to his career over the last few years. He’s healthy and has made a couple of solid starts so far this year.

Jhony Brito bounced back from his ugly start against the Twins by holding the Angels to just a single run across 4.1 innings on Wednesday. He’s scheduled to face Minnesota again next week and will be looking to improve on his seven-run disaster the last time he faced them.

Recap: April 17–20

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
Ken Waldichuk 5 25.0 5.00
Michael Wacha 4 6.6 1.65
Brad Keller 4 10.8 2.70
Dean Kremer 6.2 47.9 7.19
Matt Strahm 5.1 35.4 6.63
Hunter Gaddis 5 15.2 3.04
Peyton Battenfield 6 25.3 4.22
Total 36 166.2 4.62
Season Total 226 740.4 3.28

A really good week with four clear wins and no obvious losses. Keller’s start against the Rangers was dragged down by the five walks he allowed and Michael Wacha just hasn’t been able to replicate the magic he showed in his second start of the season against the Braves.


Your Invitation to Make Six Picks

Most of the Ottoneu coverage in this space is dedicated to your standard, 12-team leagues, whether they are head-to-head or season-long. We occasionally dabble in Ottoneu Prestige League, as well. But I don’t know that we have ever covered Ottoneu’s third baseball game – Six Picks. Today, that changes.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Hot Right Now: April 19th, 2023

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

  1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
  2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
  3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: April 21–23

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

April 21–23
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
SEA 0.307 99 STL 0.337
CHC 0.337 98 LAD 0.347
PIT 0.319 95 CIN 0.326
TBR 0.385 94 CHW 0.322
BAL 0.354 95 DET 0.269
PHI 0.354 106 COL 0.308
NYY 0.324 102 TOR 0.335
CLE 0.305 101 MIA 0.306
ATL 0.356 98 HOU 0.319
TEX 0.315 101 OAK 0.305
MIN 0.294 96 WSN 0.306
MIL 0.339 103 BOS 0.328
LAA 0.325 107 KCR 0.273
ARI 0.307 94 SDP 0.318
SFG 0.339 90 NYM 0.323

I’ve started pulling current season data for team offenses to assess matchups rather than continue utilizing the rest-of-season projections. That means there are a bunch of teams who were projected to be good who are currently underperforming and vice versa.

Teams with an easier weekend schedule include the Marlins, Nationals, Orioles, Padres, Phillies Rangers, Reds, and Twins. The Diamondbacks and Giants are both playing at home in their cavernous ballparks but they’re facing the Padres and Mets, respectively. On paper, it’s a decent matchup for Arizona and San Francisco because their opponents are underperforming a bit, but be weary.

Teams with tougher schedules include the Astros, Blue Jays, Brewers, Cubs, Mariners, Red Sox, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, White Sox, and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starting Pitchers
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB% HR/9
Tyler Wells 14.42% DET 0.269 4.55 16.4% 1.65
Kyle Gibson 31.09% DET 0.269 4.76 7.4% 1.14
Zach Plesac 13.78% MIA 0.306 4.56 10.0% 1.38
Hunter Gaddis 6.73% MIA 0.306 4.27 10.2% 0.71
Bailey Falter 11.22% COL 0.308 4.06 12.9% 1.20

I’ve only got a handful of recommendations this weekend. The Orioles are hosting the Tigers who currently have the worst offense in baseball by a wide margin. That means it’s a great opportunity to drip Tyler Wells and Kyle Gibson into your rosters. The former has had a decent start to the year, allowing just a single walk in three starts with an acceptable amount of strikeouts and hits allowed. Gibson has been a successful recommendation twice already this season and this matchup is his best yet.

The Guardians will host the hapless Marlins offense this weekend, giving you another opportunity to drip Zach Plesac and Hunter Gaddis into your rosters. Plesac has been fine after his implosion in his first start of the year against the A’s. The strikeouts aren’t there but he isn’t walking anyone either. Gaddis has only allowed a single home run this season, relying on weak contact in the air to get many of his outs. His xFIP is an unsightly 5.74, however, so start him at your own risk.

The Rockies will travel to Philadelphia this weekend and Bailey Falter might be lined up for a start on Saturday or Sunday. The Phillies have a double-header today and don’t have an off day this week so their rotation might need to be reconfigured over the weekend. Keep an eye on whether or not Falter is listed as a probable for that series against Colorado.

Recap: April 14–16

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
Dylan Dodd N/A
Seth Lugo 3.2 10.3 2.82
Nick Martinez 6 1.8 0.30
Matthew Boyd N/A
Anthony DeSclafani 6.2 31.4 4.72
Jhony Brito 0.2 -26.0 -38.95
Bryce Elder 5.1 20.7 3.87
Zach Plesac 5 20.8 4.16
Michael Grove 5.2 30.4 5.37
Jake Woodford 5.1 21.3 3.99
Total 38.1 110.8 2.89
Season Total 190 574.2 3.02

A couple of recommendations ended up missing starts last weekend — Dylan Dodd was sent back to Triple-A when Kyle Wright was activated from the IL and Matthew Boyd had his start delayed by rain two days in a row. I think we can call Anthony DeSclafani and Michael Grove’s starts wins with Jhony Brito and Nick Martinez’s clear losses. Seth Lugo also struggled through his start, but ended up earning enough points to call it a wash.


Ottoneu Cold Right Now: April 17, 2023

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature, primarily written by either Chad Young or Lucas Kelly, with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

  1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
  2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Ross Stripling, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 28.52%

With a report that Stripling will be working out of the bullpen for the foreseeable future, he loses much of his fantasy value. In his one start of the year, he gave up four earned runs and three home runs. His pitch mix is a little all over the place as he appears to be working on a splitter and is sticking with the sinker he started throwing last year. His velocity appears to be unchanged from last year except that he is throwing his changeup significantly harder. Whatever the issue is, Stripling needs to work through it as a reliever and will need some time to get right before he becomes fantasy relevant again.

Austin Meadows, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 28.2%

The left-handed DH/OF is struggling with anxiety and was placed on the 10-Day IL at the end of last week. He had a big season debut going three for four with a double but then fell into a mini-slump. Hopefully Meadows will be able to get back out on the field soon. He’s projected to slug in the .430 to .460 range, well above the 2022 MLB average of .395.

Taylor Rogers, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 22.44%

Rogers is expected to play a setup role to Camilo Doval (Roster Resource) and maybe some fantasy managers were hoping it would be the reverse. Rogers had a rough go to start the season in San Francisco. He’s given up an earned run in four out of his six appearances and in one of those appearances he gave up four earned runs. He also gave up a home run in each of his first two appearances. It could just be a rough start to the year and it could be the beginning of some skills decline but it’s too early to tell.

Seth Brown, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 20.83%

Another injury has managers cutting Brown as he is expected to be out in the four to six-week range with a Grade 2 left oblique strain. Fantasy managers know just how tricky oblique strains can be and are reacting accordingly.

Trevor May, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 19.55%

With an ERA creeping above 8.00, May has had one too many poor outings for fantasy managers to deal with. In one appearance against the Rays, May gave up four walks and two earned runs before recording a full inning pitched. The 33-year-old right-handed reliever has always maintained a higher-than-average K/9, but his BB% has bounced above and below league average in his career:

Trevor May BB% and K/9 Career

Click to enlarge

With both his fastball and sinker declining in velocity this season, May is an easy cut in fantasy leagues.

Cold Performers

Kolten Wong: 41 AB,  .098/.208/.098, -0.26 P/G

In Jeff Zimmerman’s latest lineup analysis, he wrote:

“Kolten Wong (vs RHP) and Sam Haggerty (vs LHP) are in a second base platoon.”

Wong has gone 0-3 against lefties and 5-48 against righties. I don’t think anyone drafted Wong for his batting average as no projection system has him over .250, but many were probably drawn to the 10+ stolen base projections and he has yet to swipe a bag. But, even with a sad batting line, his BB% is above average:

Kolten Wong BB%

Hopefully, Wong will continue to help in the OBP department and starts to run again, but if he doesn’t I would consider him an easy cut.

Willson Contreras: 46 AB, .174/.255/.196, 1.33 P/G

In his new home in St. Louis Contreras is struggling, but he is a streaky hitter. He opened the season with a four-game hitting streak, followed that up with a two for 34, then went 2-5 in yesterday’s game. There hasn’t been much change in his swing profile, he has hit a ball 115.1 MPH, very close to his career max, and all of his x-stats are higher than his actuals:

AVG: .200 xAVG: .229

SLG: .240 xSLG: .345

wOBA: .249 xwOBA: .292

Just wait it out, Contreras will very likely be the hitter projection systems expect him to be.

Michael Kopech: 15.2 IP, -0.88 P/IP

Kopech’s game logs are scary looking. In three outings this season he has given up 11 earned runs, seven home runs, and 1o walks. He needs to, at the very least, be benched until something is figured out. Each one of his pitches, except the curveball, which he utilizes the least, has an xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA higher than the actuals. His curveball, slider, and fastball have all given up home runs this season and his fastball has lost nearly 2 inches of vertical movement (BaseballSavant, vs. AVG measurement). Is it possible that Kopech is not a starter? Whatever the case may be, he is simply not worth starting in any fantasy format.

Tyler Anderson: 14.2 IP, -0.64 P/IP

Are people already saying, “Told ya so”, about Anderson coming back down to reality from his excellent 2022 season? I hope not. In his first outing, he only gave up four hits but tacked on two walks. He seems to be struggling with his command to open up the season as his BB% is higher than it’s ever been and his K% is lower than it’s ever been:

Tyler Anderson BB%/K%

He’s not getting hit harder, his velocity isn’t down enough to raise any red flags and his BABIP is currently .318. I predict a rebound after a few more outings. How about his stuff? Here’s a comparison between this season and last season:

Tyler Anderson Stuff+ Season Comparisons
Season Stf+ FA Stf+ SI Stf+ FC Stf+ CU Stf+ CH
2022 95 86 95 93 81
2023 95 86 95 93 81

I’m not exactly sure if 14.2 innings are enough to get a good Stuff+ metric (I still have some learning to do in that department) but if it is enough to explain how Anderson’s pitches are performing, they are unchanged from last season as of now.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: April 17–20

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

April 17–20
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
SEA 0.318 99 MIL 0.322
BOS 0.331 100 MIN 0.317
DET 0.307 93 CLE 0.322
CIN 0.317 116 TBR 0.320
MIA 0.317 93 SFG 0.321
CHW 0.321 108 PHI 0.324
KCR 0.317 93 TEX 0.320
STL 0.329 94 ARI 0.321
HOU 0.335 102 TOR 0.335
COL 0.310 111 PIT 0.317
OAK 0.299 91 CHC 0.318
SDP 0.334 98 ATL 0.338
LAD 0.333 107 NYM 0.327
WSN 0.311 104 BAL 0.321
NYY 0.327 102 LAA 0.334
Team wOBA projected via FG Depth Charts

Its feast or famine this week. Easy schedules include the A’s, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Guardians, Marlins, Rangers, Royals, and Tigers.

A bunch of squads have a tough matchup to start the week including the Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Pirates, Phillies, Reds, Twins, White Sox, and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starting Pitchers
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB%
Ken Waldichuk 47.76% CHC 0.318 4.24 14.2%
Michael Wacha 46.80% ARI 0.321 4.44 13.4%
Brad Keller 13.46% TEX 0.320 4.32 8.8%
Dean Kremer 11.86% WSN 0.311 4.28 11.5%
Matt Strahm 9.94% COL 0.330 3.92 18.3%
Hunter Gaddis 8.65% DET 0.307 4.68 14.1%
Peyton Battenfield 0.00% DET 0.307 4.55 11.0%
Stats projected via FG Depth Charts

There aren’t a ton of great matchups to recommend this week with a bunch of riskier plays if you’re desperate for innings or need to hit your games started cap. Michael Wacha has been a little overlooked in these columns in favor of his rotation-mates Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo, but Wacha’s actually been pretty decent in his two starts this year. Impressively, he held the Braves scoreless over six innings in his last outing with ten strikeouts. He’s lined up to start against the Diamondbacks in Arizona on Thursday.

Brad Keller continues to impress with his revamped breaking balls; Stuff+ loves both his slider (137 Stuff+) and curveball (114 Stuff+). The only knock against him has been his lack of control of those two pitches early on. Everyone has scrambled to pick up his teammate Kris Bubic, but Keller deserves some attention too. He just held the Rangers to a single run in 6.2 innings while striking out seven on Wednesday and he’ll get to face them again at home on Tuesday.

Matt Strahm has yet to allow a run in three appearances and two starts this year and as long as he’s getting a chance to contribute in the rotation, he’s worth considering dripping into your rotation. I didn’t recommend him for his start against the Reds in the bandbox in Cincinnati but he gets a really nice matchup against the Rockies at home on Thursday.

Ken Waldichuk has had a really rough start to the season, allowing 17 runs in 15 innings. To be fair, he ran into the Angels and the Rays for his first two starts and looked a bit better against the Orioles in his last outing. His ownership rate has dropped below 50% in Ottoneu as frustrated players have cut him loose. Still, he was ranked 86th on the 2023 Top Prospects list and looked promising during his cup of coffee last year. If you want to take a chance on him, he has a nice matchup against the Cubs at home on the docket.

There are a couple of Guardians starters worth mentioning for their matchup against the Tigers in Detroit. Hunter Gaddis looked great against the A’s a week ago but got crushed by the Yankees in his last start. Peyton Battenfield made his major league debut this week against those same Bronx Bombers and held them to just two runs in 4.2 innings. He was ranked 40th on Cleveland’s prospect list and fits their archetype of pitchers who have a deep repertoire with a strong breaking ball, but struggle with their fastball. Both would be pretty significant risks, but the matchup and venue are pretty favorable.

Recap: April 10–13

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
José Suarez 4 4.6 1.15
Kyle Gibson 6.1 32.9 5.19
Dean Kremer 4.1 -12.5 -2.89
Bryce Elder 6.1 42.3 6.67
Chris Flexen 플렉센 2.1 -37.3 -16.00
JP Sears 5 6.6 1.32
Matt Strahm 5 35.6 7.12
Wade Miley 5 8.7 1.74
Total 38.1 80.8 2.11
Season Total 151.2 463.4 3.06

Three wins and two losses last week and a bunch of meh. Strahm continues to be a solid recommendation and Bryce Elder impressed again. The Chris Flexen recommendation was an ugly affair but he had been such a consistent, if unexciting, starter last year I thought it would work out against the Cubs. It didn’t. Despite struggling against the A’s in his start on Wednesday, I’m recommending another Kremer start as you can see above. Maybe he’ll be able to handle the Nationals this time around.