Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Injuries: Players who are being cut because of IL stints.
2. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Yasmani Grandal, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 7.06%

Grandal has just never gotten back to the 2021 season that made him so valuable to roster. In 2021, he walked 23.2% of the time while striking out only 21.9% of the time. He hit 20+ home runs in 5 consecutive seasons if you don’t count the 2020 season, hitting 23 in 2o21. Then in 2022, he hit only five home runs and right now, he has six. It might appear that Grandal’s power has been rebounding some, but it’s still a long way away from his 2021 and even 2019 marks and his current hard-hit rate of 33.5% is a career low. The 34-year-old catcher is at 3.33 points per game in Ottoneu points leagues and is being cut because of it.

Luis Matos, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 6.09%

Matos is 21 years old, has only 86 MLB plate appearances, and has a .263 batting average. He is the Giants’ 2023 number-one prospect. But, he’s only slugging .342, and perhaps people were expecting him to immediately be like he was (.398/.435/.685) in 116 AAA plate appearances before being called up to the bigs? Here’s a snippet from his prospect write-up by Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin:

He’s still chase-prone, but his high-end exit velos are up compared to 2022, and the beautiful, 180-degree finish Matos’ swing would show at peak has returned with greater frequency. Wielding one of the prettier righty swings in baseball, Matos is moving the barrel all over the zone and turning on up-and-in pitches with power again.

If he was dropped in your league, he should probably be picked up. Small of a sample as it is, he is striking out 12.1% of the time which is the third lowest among Rookies with at least 50 plate appearances in 2023 behind Alec Burleson at 10.7% and Masataka Yoshida at 10.9%. Matos has a bright future and should be held onto in Ottoneu leagues for the long run.

Nick Pratto, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 6.09%

Pratto’s player page Prospect TLDR reads, “A swing and approach change unlocked huge in-game power for Pratto, who also has a good idea of the zone…”, but his power has been disappointing in 2023. He is only slugging .389 (below the .411 MLB average) with six home runs. Pratto’s biggest knock so far is his 37.5% strikeout rate but even in AAA during 374 2022 at-bats, Pratto struck out 30.5% of the time. He hits the ball hard 45.3% of the time according to Statcast and that is greater than the 39.5% league average mark. His 9.5% Barrel% is also above the league average but only by a hair. No, the issue here seems to be that Pratto is pressing, trying to get back to the hot streak he went on in early June. Match that with the fact that he’s been benched for Matt Duffy as written by Jeff Zimmerman in a recent lineup analysis, and Pratto may just need to re-focus his swing approach.

If it were me, I wouldn’t be dropping a 24-year-old first-round pick like Pratto in any Ottoneu format. I would remain patient.

DL Hall, Add% (-) Change (7 days) –5.13%

A back injury over the winter has kept Hall down and it was recently reported that he has “…been at the Orioles’ spring training facility in Florida for the past four weeks”. Prior to that, he made 11 starts at AAA posting a 4.57 ERA with an 11.32 K/9, but a 5.66 BB/9. That’s Hall’s biggest challenge; control. His stuff is unreal but it comes with very shaky command. In his one major league relief appearance in 2023, he struck out seven in three innings, but he walked one and gave up a home run getting tagged with two earned runs. It is also apparent that Hall is destined for a relief role if and when he gets healthy this summer. His velocity needs to get back up to his 2022 mark (96.4 MPH vFA) and he needs to dial in his control issues if he wants to get back to the bigs. The O’s could certainly use another reliever who can appear between the starters and the All-Star back end of the bullpen.

Anthony Desclafani, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 5.13%

Desclafani is working his way back from a shoulder injury and perhaps some fantasy managers saw his rehab appearance stats and decided they were out. The 33-year-old righty threw four innings at the rookie-level Arizona Complex League and gave up a home run. He did record four strikeouts and did not give up a walk. He last appeared for the Giants on July 1st so it hasn’t been a long IL stint and he is lined up to start on Tuesday, July 18th. His 2023 ERA (4.44) is slightly different from his xERA (4.92), but he is walking fewer batters than his projections expected and he’s giving up fewer home runs than expected too. He’s begun using his slider and changeup more often while dropping his fastball and curveball usage and that’s good because the slider/changeup are his best pitches. I would keep an eye on Desclafani over his next few starts, perhaps benching him for his first start back from IL to see how he’s looking. He’s lined up to face the Reds.

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 30 days.

Tim Anderson,  0.65 P/G:

TA hit over .300 in his last four seasons (2019-2022) but he currently sits at .227. His power has been sapped:

Some might speculate TA is playing through injury, some might speculate he is in an early stage skills decline at age 30. But, he is still walking better than his career average, striking out less than his career average, and swinging outside of the zone less than his career average. What he isn’t doing is swinging in the zone as often as he usually does and he is getting punished by sliders this season with a Pitch Info pVal of -13.5 on the pitch. He had real difficulty with sliders earlier in his career and he is facing them again. But, that doesn’t isolate his troubles. TA does not have a positive pVal on any one individual pitch this season. Whatever the reason for this decline is, many are hoping it will turn around soon.

Daulton Varsho,  1.00 P/G:

Varsho has hit a wOBA season low, so he has nowhere to go but up:

Varsho’s power metrics are missing the projected marks systems expected before the season began, particularly his slugging (.365) and ISO (.150). He does have 11 stolen bases on the year and that is nothing to complain about. He is still hitting the ball hard and even put up his best MaxEV mark of 112.5 MPH this season. All of his Statcast expected marks are greater than his actuals:

AVG: .215 xAVG: .232

SLG: .365 xSLG: .391

wOBA: .282 xwOBA: .303

He’ll need to improve his timing and ability to hit the fastball as it has given him some trouble this season (-9.3 PitchInfo pVal) and he’s only hitting .205 against righties (.259 against lefties). RosterResource lists him as a left-handed hitter in a projected platoon vs RHP.

Martín Pérez,  0.84 P/IP:

Pérez was skipped in his rotation start after an awful outing against the Astros where he threw 1.1 innings, gave up two walks, three home runs, and was tagged with six earned runs. He did not bounce back in his next start, only going five innings against the Guardians, walking four, giving up a home run, and getting tagged with another three earned runs.  Between last season and this season, Pérez’s per nine ratios are all trending in the wrong direction:

He’s been able to somewhat stabilize the high BB/9 that started his 2023 season, but he’s still walking too many when it’s combined with a high home run rate.

Bobby Miller,  2.82 P/IP:

Miller had an incredible start to the season where he earned only two runs (no home runs) in his first four starting appearances (23 IP) but then hitters adjusted in his next four starts (21 IP) and he gave up 20 earned runs on four home runs. In his latest outing, he recovered nicely and put up five strikeouts, no home runs, and only one earned run in 4.2 innings, but left the game with an injury:

#Dodgers Bobby Miller said he felt a little discomfort on his right knee in the fourth inning, but is “all good.” He wanted to stay in the game in the 5th and get out of the jam, but added he understood the decision.

— Juan Toribio (@juanctoribio) July 17, 2023

Miller is a 24-year-old right-handed pitcher with insanely good stuff and should be expected to go through these types of highs and lows in his rookie season.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• With the All-Star break taking up the first half of this week, head-to-head matchups in most leagues will span July 14–23. In Ottoneu head-to-head leagues with a Games Started cap, players will need to wisely plan their matchups since the number of starts they have to cover is the same, only with three extra days in the matchup window.
• There are just a few teams who will start off the second half of the season with a string of easier matchups. Both the Twins and the Mariners are probably your best bet to set it and forget it with their entire rotations. Seattle has ten games at home following their All-Star hosting duties and two of their three opponents are particularly weak.
• On the other hand, there are a bunch of teams with a stretch of tough opponents following the midseason break. The Brewers, Cubs, Diamondbacks, and Reds all have particularly challenging matchups over the next ten days which makes it a bit of a risk to rely on any of their pitchers. Not only do Cincinnati’s opponents hit well, they’re also playing all three series at home in the most home run friendly ballpark in the majors.
• Keep an eye on how teams line up the back half of their starting rotations after this weekend. Most teams haven’t announced starters for games early next week, and the order they lineup their fourth and fifth starters could have an effect on their matchups next weekend.

Building for the future in Ottoneu leagues is both exciting and disheartening at the same time. On one hand, you’ve admitted defeat, and you’ve decided that there is no possible way you will climb the ranks to even a respectable, third-place, finish. On the other hand, you get to shed salary, auction young exciting players, and reimagine what your team could be in a few years. So, where do you start? The most logical way is to find a ranking list of prospects and start searching on your Ottoneu players page for the top players to see if they’re available. You’ll probably find that they are not, that the best prospects have been gobbled up by your league mates. So, how do you find good, available prospects in your league without clicking and searching forever? Follow these easy steps to simplify your process.

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Today, given we are in the midst of the All Star Break and not a ton has happened since last week’s Hot Right Now, you are getting an abbreviated version focused on the players up for auction in the most leagues right now.

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Last week, we celebrated the Ottoneu Surplus Value All-Stars! They’re the guys who are rostered with low salaries but are producing like superstars. This week, I’m back with a look at the Ottoneu Surplus Value Un-Stars — those high-priced stars who have been duds dragging your team down the standings so far this season.

Above are the 20 least valuable hitters this year. It’s populated with guys who are either seriously underperforming, have been injured, or both. It’s also an interesting mix of younger players who are suddenly struggling — Luis Urías, Jose Miranda, and Josh Rojas all fit this bill — and a few older veterans on the downswing of their careers.

The player with the highest average salary above is Jose Altuve. He’s actually been as good as he has been in the past when he’s on the field, but he’s missed so much time due to injury, his surplus value is in the negative. Jazz Chisholm is another guy who has been productive when on the field, but injuries have really ruined his season. Then there are the players who have been both injured and ineffective. Look no further than Giancarlo Stanton, Tim Anderson, and Jesse Winker. These big name players haven’t played enough to amass much value for your team and when they have played, they’ve stunk.

Alejandro Kirk and Jose Miranda are two surprising inclusions on this list. Both had breakout seasons last year but have struggled to follow up that success this year. Kirk’s issues seem to stem from a loss of contact quality; his hard hit and barrel rates are both down significantly and his BABIP has fallen by nearly 50 points. His expected wOBA is slightly higher than the results he’s put together so far, but it’s still significantly down from what he produced last year. Miranda is suffering from the same issues of contact quality. And again, his BABIP is abnormally low and his expected wOBA is higher than his actual results. Still, his expected stats don’t exactly paint a rosy picture and he’ll need to continue working things out in the minor leagues.

Like the list of hitters, this list of pitchers is filled with injured stars or ineffective youngsters. Some injury risk was obviously baked into Jacob deGrom’s average salary, but losing him for all of this season and next is a brutal blow for teams who were rostering him. Tyler Glasnow’s value is an interesting story. He returned from the IL in late-May so he hasn’t had as much time to generate points. But he’s also really struggled with a big home run problem this year which is exacerbated in a format like Ottoneu.

Then there are guys like Alek Manoah and Luis Severino who have so seriously underperformed their relatively high salaries. The former’s return from his whirlwind development program in the Blue Jays farm system looked promising — he allowed just a single run over six innings against the Tigers and didn’t walk a single batter. If he’s figured out his mechanical issues, there’s still plenty of time left in the season to produce some value for teams. Severino’s issues are a little tougher to decipher. Every pitch in his repertoire is producing poorer results this year than in years past despite no significant changes in their physical characteristics. And it’s not like he’s getting unlucky either — opposing batters are simply crushing everything they see from him.

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Injuries: Players who are being cut because of IL stints.
2. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Peter Strzelecki, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 12.17%

The Brewers righty was optioned to AAA at the end of June and though he had accumulated 14 holds in the 2023 season, he’ll work on a few things in the minors including his control. He walked at least one batter in his last eight appearances and while his season BB/9 (2.52) is less than the league average (3.30), he gave up home runs in addition to walks in important innings which is never a good combination. If you look at Strzelecki’s season ratios, you may not see much room for concern. It’s likely a logistical move combined with an attempt to get him right as Matt Bush was released on July 3rd and the Brewers will likely need bullpen depth again soon.

Drew Smyly, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 10.9%

The “throw lot’s of curveballs” approach has not been working for Smyly so far this season. A lot of that has to do with the fact that he doesn’t have something to throw besides the curveball. While his cutter has been a decent pitch with a -3 Statcast run value, he throws his sinker a lot more often. It isn’t fooling anyone after seeing the curve and both pitches, the sinker and the curve, have a +3 run value. The Yankees were the team that feasted off Smyly most recently, getting him for four earned runs on two home runs. But, the Brewers tagged him for three runs in his start before that and the Phillies earned seven runs on two home runs before that. In a points league where home runs hurt badly, Smyly is an easy drop. His HR/9 is now at 1.44 and he’s not doing anything to counterbalance that mark.

Matthew Liberatore, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 8.66%

The young Cardinals lefty was optioned to AAA last week after a handful of poor starts this season. In his last three starts, he faced 41 batters in only seven total innings. That’s 5.9 batters per inning. His ERA is at 6.75 and his xERA is 7.51. None of his pVals (Pitch Info) have a positive value in 2023 and only his sinker returned a positive value in 2022. He’ll need to work on his approach in the minors and it’s worth paying attention to. He’s only 23-years-old and probably shouldn’t be cut just yet unless his salary has jumped way up.

Ji Hwan Bae, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 8.65%

Bae has been a monster….base stealer. That’s about it. When he went on the IL with an ankle injury, many fantasy managers probably figured the injury will hurt his ability to continue stealing bags. He’s hitting .238, has two home runs, and has an OBP of .301. He doesn’t walk enough at 7.5% to make stolen bases worth the while. If you need steals and your average/on-base percentage is leading your league, Bae is not a bad player to roster. Otherwise, he’s a drain on all your other categories or points totals.

Luis Severino, Add% (-) Change (7 days) –8.01 %

Severino put up a real stinker against the Orioles only going 2.2 innings and giving up seven earned runs. He gave up seven earned runs in his start prior as well and his ERA now sits at 7.38. His velocity jumped to 98 MPH on his fastball in his second start and fantasy managers jumped on the hopefulness that such a jump provides. But it didn’t stay there and none of his pitches have performed well this season. Not one of his pVals (Pitch Info) has a positive value. If I were rostering Severino, I’m not sure I would be dropping but I would be benching. His salary obviously plays a big role in Ottonue formats, but he may be worth holding onto for another start or two to see if he can turn things around.

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Salvador Perez,  0.2 P/G:

Batting .143 in the second half of June with only one home run has brought Perez’s value way down. He’s not doing much better in July as he’s only hitting .167. His swinging-strike rate and O-Swing% are both up compared to his 2022 totals, but not by much. It’s something to keep an eye on, but it’s likely a rough patch from the Royals catcher. There isn’t much in his batted ball profile that is out of the ordinary and Statcast expected stats (xAVG/xSLG/xwOBA) are all higher than his actuals. His rolling wOBA chart would tell you that this is a low point and regression should be coming soon.

Keibert Ruiz,  2.5 P/G:

Look at these Statcast expected versus actuals:

AVG: .226 xAVG: .278

SLG: .360 xSLG: .456

wOBA: .281 xwOBA: .339

Things are going to turn around for the young Nationals catcher. In addition to these bad luck indicators, his BABIP is down to .223.

Cristian Javier,  -3.7 P/IP:

Javier has a home run problem. He’s given up two home runs in each of his last starts and went through a stretch where he gave up nine home runs in nine starts. It’s possible that he should just stop throwing either his curveball or changeup. Maybe that’s too aggressive, but his changeup has a -1.8 Pitch Info pVal and his curveball has a -2.1 pVal. However, his four-seamer (4.0) and his slider (2.3) have been performing decently well. He has 82 strikeouts so far this season but was projected to be above 200 by season’s end by most projection systems. Hopefully, the All-Star break will be a time for Javier to figure some things out.

Taj Bradley,  -2.98 P/IP:

The 22-year-old righty has given up seven home runs in his last four starts. It’s hard to tell what the Rays will do whether it be a send-back down to the minors or a “let him figure it out” approach. If you have him rostered, don’t drop him. He has a ton of talent and he just needs to work through a few things. His cutter is getting beat up but his four-seamer and curveball have both performed well.

With the All-Star break and a four day break from the regular season right around the corner, I’ve decided to skip the Ottoneu Starting Pitcher Planner this week. Many teams will take this opportunity to reorder their starting rotations as they head into the second half of the season, which means the probable pitchers listed on the Roster Resource Probables Grid will likely change between now and next Friday.

Instead, I’ll take this opportunity to celebrate some of the players who have made the biggest contributions to our Ottoneu teams during the first half of the season. The highest scoring player so far has been Shohei Ohtani — no surprise there since he’s scoring in both pitching and hitting categories. If you look past the two-way sensation, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Kevin Gausman are the highest scoring players behind him. But not everyone can afford to roster an Ohtani ($54 average salary), Acuña ($54), or Gausman ($17). (Okay, Gausman is a little more attainable, but bear with me). If you’re rostering any of these top scorers, you’re probably towards the top of the standings in your league.

Instead, I want to celebrate the guys with tons of surplus value — the players who are rostered with low salaries but who are producing big numbers for your team. After all, the key to winning in Ottoneu year-after-year is identifying those players who can produce like superstars but cost a fraction of an Ohtani or Acuña. I pulled surplus value data from the FanGraphs Auction Calculator and then calculated the surplus value per dollar of salary to get a list of players who have produced the most value for the lowest cost. Let’s celebrate the Ottoneu Surplus Value All-Stars!

Above are the 20 most valuable hitters plus two catchers. Corbin Carroll leads the way as the seventh highest scoring batter this year. Spencer Steer and Luis Arraez are right behind him at ninth and tenth overall and their multi-positional eligibility has been a boon for the teams who are rostering them. The biggest surprise on this list has to be Jeimer Candelario, who is still shockingly available in nearly a quarter of all Ottoneu leagues.

The majority of this list is players in the middle of breakout seasons or bounce back seasons. That’s pretty unsurprising since those kinds of players are able to be rostered for cheap in the hopes that they hit it big. But just because they show up on this list doesn’t necessarily make them a shoe-in to be a keeper next year. Guys like Justin Turner and Andrew McCutchen are veterans in the middle of fantastic seasons but there’s no guarantee they’ll keep up the production next year.

On the pitching side of things, the story is largely the same. Nathan Eovaldi is the second highest scoring pitcher behind Gausman and Marcus Stroman and Mitch Keller are sixth and seventh overall. For the relievers, it’s essentially a list of the top scoring relievers with Félix Bautista and Alexis Díaz leading the way and Yennier Cano, Tanner Scott, Tyler Rogers, and Scott McGough all sitting inside the top 10.

The surprise inclusion on this list is probably Nick Martinez. He’s bounced between the rotation and the bullpen but he’s been productive no matter where he’s pitched. There are a number of pitchers on the list who are also shockingly under-rostered. Rogers is the sixth highest scoring reliever this season and he’s available in more than a third of Ottoneu leagues. I’m sure that roster percentage is being pulled down by 5×5 leagues that only value saves, but he’s clearly been one of the best relievers in baseball this year.

On June 29th, as the clock neared midnight ET, Jake Mailhot and I completed a trade in League 32 that saw us swap a couple of big names.

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The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

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Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Luis Urías, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 20.51%

Urías went from underrated to overrated to disappointed to productive player to injured and has now gone back to the minors. After missing more than a month with an injury suffered on Opening Day, Urías simply has not produced for the Brewers, posting a .145/.299/236 slash line and just 2.05 P/G for his Ottoneu managers.

Some of the issue is certainly poor luck – his .179 BABIP and 12.5% line drive rate are both unsustainably low. But Urías just was not making strong contact in his limited time this year. Never a guy with elite contact quality, his brief (so far) 2023 has been a big step back and re-raised concerns from his prospect days that he simply won’t hit the ball hard enough to be an impact player. He showed in 2021 and 2022 that he can hit just hard enough to be a successful MLB hitter, but this year he just isn’t doing it.

You can see in that chart, his HH rate was stuck well below league average until 2021, and has been trending down so far this year. If you want to take something positive from this, his brutal June looks an awful lot like other slow patches for him in the middle of 2021, and a couple of times in 2022. Given still-strong plate discipline numbers, there is good reason to think Urías can play his way out of this.

I don’t mind cutting him now, especially if you are spending $10+ on him (median salary is $6), but watch his minor league performance. A hot week could be more than enough to get him back into the Brewers lineup and producing like he did in 2022.

Kris Bubic, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 16.35%

Just another round of Bubic being auctioned and cut to decrease his cap penalty. And still no other reason to be nominating or bidding on him.

Matthew Boyd, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 15.06%

Boyd has looked so good in flashes, but the performance hasn’t been consistent and now he is going to miss the rest of this year and maybe all of next after having Tommy John Surgery. No reason to stash him. He is still rostered in almost 16% of leagues and that should fade to 0 as the year goes on.

Josh Rojas, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 14.74%

Rojas was an exciting player a couple of years ago, with a decent amount of hype in fantasy circles, and he delivered two decent-ish seasons. But this year has been ugly.

The greater than 10% walk rate that helped give him a high floor has dropped t0 8.6% this year. Always a guy who hit a relatively high number of line drives, Rojas kept that rate up at 25% this year, but his exit velocity on line drives fell from 92.1 in 2021 and 93.4 last year to 90.7 this year. That lower quality of contact has brought down his BABIP and his HR/FB% (to zero, which isn’t ideal) and left him without much value.

There are only 12 qualified hitters with a LD% higher than 25% and none has an xwOBA lower than Ezequiel Tovar’s .292. Rojas had an xwOBA of .268. Hitting a lot of line drives is a good thing, but you still have to hit the ball hard for that to matter.

You’ll notice a lot of past tense in those paragraphs – that’s because Rojas has been sent down to Triple-A. And he really isn’t hitting any better there. There is no good reason not to move on from Rojas if you haven’t already.

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Bo Naylor, 2.1 P/G:

When Naylor got the call, I was quick to get him into my lineups and he has not really delivered. He has only had 40 PA since coming up and his P/G is hurt by PH appearances, but not enough to explain away 2.1 P/G. The strikeout rate is high and Naylor is clearly struggling to adjust.

But I want to urge patience on Naylor. His first couple of weeks of Triple-A in 2022 were not good, before he adjusted and took off. His first taste of Double-A in 2021 was not good, before he adjusted a took off.

Naylor has shown a good approach throughout his pro career, drawing a lot of walks and flashing big power. His first MLB HR was no cheapie – a 417-foot shot he hit out the other way in Kauffman Stadium, a notoriously bad power park. There are going to be growing pains, but if you can let him work through them, the prize could be big.

Jack Suwinski, 3.33 P/G:

This is all part of the Jack Suwinski show, as his high K-rate leaves him susceptible to cold streaks. The concern for managers, of course, is what if the league has just figured him out and the cold streak won’t be followed by another hot streak?

Here are some numbers for you:

• Suwinski’s average EV on the season: 91.6. Over the last two weeks: 93.4.
• Suwinski’s hard hit rate on the season: 48.6%. Over the last two weeks: 56.5%.
• Suwinski’s strikeout rate on the season: 31.7%. Over the last two weeks: 30.2%.
• Suwinski’s walk rate on the season: 15.5%. Over the last two weeks: 16.3%.

So what is driving this slump? His BABIP (.190) and HR/FB rate (13.3%) are both just extremely low, especially given the continued hard contact.

If you, like me, are getting frustrated, take a deep breath and wait for him to start mashing the ball again. It’s coming. And if you don’t enjoy the roller coaster, the next time he hits four homers over a four-game stretch (a feat he has accomplished twice so far this year), get him on the block and sell. I’m holding, enjoying the peaks, and accepting that the big picture is still very good, even if the valleys prevent it from being great.

Johan Oviedo, 2.89 P/IP:

This guy is maddening. He looked quite good to start the season before running into a tough start against the Dodgers. And he actually fared kind-of-okay, giving up 5 R (4 earned) over 5.1 IP against LA. And you had to feel good starting him against the Nats next time out and he got LIT UP. The he had another rough go against the Jays, before he settled back in.

After that run, from May 12 until June 25, he made 9 starts and posted 4.70 P/IP. Things looked good and if you are like me, you weren’t too worried about Milwaukee on July 1. But he threw another stinker, giving up 8 ER on 9 H and 3 BB over 5 IP, good for -5.70 points. Brutal.

The nice thing is things are easy on you for the moment. He gets the Dodgers next and there is no way I am risking that. Then he hits the All-Star break. But when he gets back, he should get either the Giants or Guardians at home in Pittsburgh and both of those are tempting.

For now, I am in wait-and-see mode with Oviedo. There are some really intriguing signs, but the season numbers are just a bit above replacement level. If you need pitching, he is an acceptable arm, but you have to play matchups and be okay with the risk that comes from a guy who has given up big games to the Nats (23rd in wRC+) and the Brewers (28th).