Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• The Cubs and Cardinals play in the MLB London Series next weekend which means they’re both off on Friday for travel. The last time teams played in England, the Yankees and Red Sox combined for 50 total runs across two games. The dimensions of London Stadium are particularly small — it would be the shortest center field fence in the majors — so avoiding the four pitchers scheduled to start this series would be prudent.
• They aren’t the only team with a weird travel schedule next week. The Nationals and Diamondbacks are scheduled to play a make-up game on Thursday. That means Arizona will play in Milwaukee to start the week, head to Washington for a single game, and then fly all the way across the country to San Francisco for their weekend series.
• Teams with more traditionally tough schedules include the Angels, Braves, and Dodgers. Shohei Ohtani manages to avoid pitching in Coors Field but he still has to face the Dodgers offense in his start next week. Based on his struggles recently, you’re probably better off sitting Spencer Strider in both of his starts next week. Atlanta plays in a couple of hitter friendly venues against teams who are playing particularly well recently.
• I’ve only been calculating these matchup scores for a few weeks now, but the Reds somehow managed to pull a zero in their series against the Braves. That’s pretty incredible. Just for reference, that means they’re facing the best road offense and the best offense over the last two weeks in the worst venue for home runs in the majors.
• Teams with easier schedules include the Pirates, Tigers, and Twins. All of Minnesota’s rotation has been a must-start for practically the entire season, but they’ve all got pretty cushy matchups next week. Detroit’s and Pittsburgh’s rotations are a little hit-or-miss, but there are some key contributors who should be easy starts next week.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Tyler Glasnow
• Gerrit Cole
• Pablo López
• George Kirby
• José Berríos
• Garrett Whitlock
• Merrill Kelly
• Michael Wacha
• Alex Cobb
• Framber Valdez
• Max Scherzer
• Corbin Burnes
• Clayton Kershaw
• Bailey Ober
• Johan Oviedo
• Ranger Suárez
• Aaron Civale
• Michael Lorenzen

This article was inspired by Ezequiel Tovar. I was excited about Tovar before the season started. I wasn’t alone in that. But he started cold, his value tanks, and now I can’t get anything useful for him off my trade block in Ottoneu League 1.

But Tovar has quietly put up a strong first half. I am getting excited again! But if no one wants to acquire him from me, maybe his value is low and I should be buying. Which got me wondering if there were others like him – players whose overall lines look pretty bad, but have actually been quite good for most of the year. So I set out to find out.

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The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »

Keeping track of the machinations of 30 major league bullpens is pretty tricky. In standard leagues, it’s hard enough trying to discern which relievers are earning save opportunities, especially since more and more teams are using a committee approach in the ninth inning. In Ottoneu, with both saves and holds earning points, that search for high leverage relievers becomes even more of a challenge. There are plenty of resources out there — the Roster Resource Closer Depth Chart is one of my favorites — but even the most vigilant fantasy player can’t keep track of everything going on across the majors.

Here are a few relievers who have been seeing high leverage usage over the last two weeks, who are also rostered in less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues:

Chris Martin is currently the primary setup guy ahead of Kenley Jansen in the Red Sox ‘pen. His strikeout rate isn’t as high as it was last year with the Cubs and Dodgers but his walk rate is still a tidy 2.6%. Nothing has really changed in his profile; his swinging strike rate is right in line with where it was last year and his CSW% is up to a career high 30.7%. I’d expect his strikeout rate to bounce back towards where it was, giving him a bit more ceiling than his surface-level stats would indicate.

I wrote up Josh Sborz the last time I looked at under-rostered relievers and his roster rate barely ticked up from 0.3% to 1.9%! He’s definitely taken hold of the eighth inning duties in the Rangers bullpen ahead of closer Will Smith and his FIP is currently the lowest among this group. He currently has a career-high strikeout rate at 36.8% and his walk rate has come down two points from his career norm. More importantly, he’s only allowed a single home run this year, something that had plagued him in the past. Grant Anderson was called up by the Rangers at the end of May and has already inserted himself into the late inning picture. He dazzled in his debut, throwing 2.2 innings and striking out seven.

Justin Lawrence has taken over closing duties for the Rockies. He’s using his big sweeping slider to earn swings and misses, though his overall strikeout rate is held back by a sinker that’s used to get weak contact on the ground. Still, that’s a benefit for a reliever pitching in Coors Field and he’s only allowed a single home run this year and a 95th percentile barrel rate.

Sam Hentges missed more than a month of the season with a spring shoulder injury but has come back strong and has converted a number of high leverage opportunities for the excellent Guardians bullpen. He’s collected seven holds and has been used for multiple innings a handful of times as well. His command has been uncharacteristically off, though that might just be him still shaking off the rust after his injury. He’s throwing in the zone as often as he was last year, but his chase rate has fallen by nearly eight points.

Lucas Sims missed most of last year and some of this year with a back injury, but he returned in late-April and has taken his place as the primary setup guy in Cincinnati. He really struggled with his command after being activated off the IL, though he’s only walked two batters over his last six outings. Back in 2020, it looked like he had taken a big step forward as a lockdown reliever and the slider that drove that success is still intact. Opposing batters are whiffing 45.7% of the time they offer at his breaking ball, right in line with the whiff rates he ran in 2020 and ‘21.

After bouncing around three different organizations over the last three years, it looks like Chris Devenski has finally rediscovered the changeup that made him one of the best relievers in baseball all the way back in his debut season in 2016. His FIP across the last six seasons has been an ugly 4.27 with a decent 3.71 strikeout-to-walk ratio. This year, he’s throwing his changeup more often than ever, it’s returning a whiff rate close to 40%, and he only walked the first two batters of his season yesterday. He’s taken hold of the eighth inning role in the Angels bullpen.

With Ben Joyce sidelined with an elbow injury, another young relief arm for the Angels has stepped into high leverage opportunities in his place. José Soriano was called up in early-June and has picked up holds in three of his first four appearances in the big leagues. The flamethrowing righty had been a starting prospect in the past but command issues forced him into the bullpen for Los Angeles. He’s currently unrostered in Ottoneu.

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Roansy Contreras, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 19.23%

Yet to appear after being moved to the bullpen, some managers are not willing to wait around to see if Contreras can work his way back into the rotation. In 11 starts in 2023, his 6.87 K/9 is below all his projected marks, and his BB/9 is above his projected marks. His velocity continues to trend down slightly since his MLB debut and the batting average against his fastball in 2023 is an astounding .415. On the flip side, his slider has performed impressively well, being hit for an average of only .194. Contreras has a good curveball to go along with the slider, it currently holds a 41.9% whiff rate, but good secondaries are difficult to rely on without a solid fastball and that’s what Contreras will need to work on out of the pen. If I had been rostering Contreras for a good price, I would still be holding, not dropping. He’s only 23 and still has a lot of potential.

Graham Ashcraft, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 15.71%

After taking a come-backer off the calf, Ashcraft will spend some time on the IL. His 2023 game logs are not pretty. In four of his last seven starts, he has given up seven or more runs. In all of his last seven starts, he has given up at least three runs. Amongst pitchers with at least 60 innings this season, Ashcraft has the third-worst ERA, the eighth-worst FIP, and the fourth-worst K-BB%. While there is a lot to like about Ashcraft from a “Stuff” perspective as was pointed out earlier in the year by our own Nicklaus Gaut, his stuff is getting hit. Some research on pitchers with great stuff who get hit would help give some understanding as to what is going on.

Nick Senzel, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 13.15%

With a slash line of .258/.332/.380 and more time spent on the IL, it’s not surprising to see Senzel’s drop rate increase. The now 27-year-old has played in over 100 games only twice in his career and has never hit above .260. His 2023 OBP (.332) is above league average (.319), but he is not stealing bases. He has never had a wRC+ over 100 and his slugging percentage has been far from the league average in his last three seasons. With the arrival of Elly De La Cruz and the success of Spencer Steer, Senzel will almost certainly have to find playing time in the outfield this season and his defensive marks on the year don’t lead you to believe he is a shoo-in at any one defensive position the rest of the season.

Chris Sale, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 11.85%

It is simply sad to see Sale back on the IL with a “stress reaction in his left scapula”, but such is life. It’s difficult to hold on to Sale at this point as his estimated return is sometime in August. He showed a real return to form after a shaky start to the season, going eight innings in mid-May against the Cardinals while striking out nine and only walking one. If you have the IL spot available, it can’t hurt to hold on to Sale, but otherwise, he should be dropped.

Brandon Lowe, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 10.90%

Rotowire expects that Lowe will return from a herniated disc injury in mid-July, but back injuries are so nagging and difficult to fully return from. Either way, Lowe finds himself on the 10-day IL after hitting nine home runs and slugging .398 in 2023. His batting average sits at a worrisome .205 and he continues to struggle against left-handed pitchers. But, his average against right-handed pitchers is not that much better. Lowe has power, no doubt, but the sacrifice you make to your OBP/AVG categories when you roster him is out of balance with the power he supplies. Before his injury, his 31.3% K% was a near career-high and though his BB% (11.9%) was career-high, it was not enough to get his OBP above .300.

Jeremiah Estrada, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 10.89%

An imminent big leaguer in Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin’s mid-May Cubs assessment, Estrada has appeared in 12 games and lasted 10.2 innings as a right-handed middle reliever. In that time he has put up an impressive 10.97 K/9, but a scary 10.13 BB/9. His ERA sits at 6.75 and his FIP at 9.08. These are not good numbers. Let our prospect experts, Longenhagen and Taruskin, tell you what you need to know:

His stuff isn’t so nasty that you can comfortably project him in a middle-inning role; instead, he’s forecast here as an optionable depth piece.

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Anthony Rizzo, -2.25 P/G:

It seems obvious that Rizzo’s Hard% decline is related to his HR/FB rate and wOBA decline. But, his K% has gone up due to an increased O-Swing% (~+5%), decreased O-Contact% (~-6%) and an increased CSW% (~+4%) when compared to his career marks:

He is probably still working through neck and back issues that had him out earlier in the year and swinging hard when you have those types of injuries is very difficult. Keep an eye on his playing status as more off days could be telling of a more serious issue. But, Rizzo is a tough hitter and a good hitter and he should soon get back to his average marks if he can start to feel a little better physically.

Cal Raleigh, -1.22 P/G:

Raleigh only hit one home run in the second half of May and he has not yet hit a home run in the month of June. He is really struggling against right-handed pitchers, batting only .204 and slugging .395. What is interesting however is that Raleigh’s plate discipline metrics are trending, mostly, in the right direction. He is making more contact, swinging outside of the zone less often, and swinging and missing overall less often.

His troubles can be pinpointed to when he does make contact as he’s not hitting the ball as hard as he used to on a consistent basis and that’s where Raleigh has done damage in the past:

Luis Severino, -4.67 P/IP:

Severino’s fastball velocity dipped back down to 95.6 MPH after reaching 98.0 MPH in a start at the end of May. He has only had four starts so far this year and in his last two starts, he has given up three home runs. His fastballs (cutter and four-seamer) are getting hit with batting averages above .300. His slider has been his best pitch so far this year from a swing-and-miss measurement, but he is throwing it slightly less often. It may take another couple of starts to work through a better gameplan/pitch-mix, so keep an eye on Severino in hopes that his velo will go back up and he will start limiting hard contact once again.

Bryce Miller, -4.86 P/IP:

After an excellent start to the season, Miller’s last two appearances were rough. He gave up eight earned runs and two home runs on May 29th and he gave up seven earned runs and one home run on June 4th. He still only has 5 walks in 38.1 innings, but hitters are catching on to the fact that he puts the ball in the zone with regularity and have begun hitting the ball hard:

Miller will have to find a balance between being a pitcher with an impressive 18.4% K-BB%, compared to the league average among starters of 13.8%, and a pitcher who gives up hard contact. While his fastballs are performing well from a pVal standpoint, all being positive, his secondary pitches, the slider, and the curveball are collecting negative values. His changeup is a good offering, but he doesn’t seem to be fooling anyone with the slider and curveball as each has a below-average SwStr%. This is the kind of up-and-down performance we should see from a pitcher who is only 24 years old.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• After working through a tough schedule this week, the Twins have a couple of easier matchups next week at home; the Brewers are much weaker on the road and have been really struggling recently and the Tigers have one of the worst offenses in the league no matter where they’re playing. The Braves also have a pretty nice schedule next week, with three in Detroit and then four games at home against the Rockies.
• The Astros and Rangers both have a pretty tough pair of home series next week. Houston will host the Nationals and Reds, both of which might seem like easy matchups, but both teams have been hitting pretty well recently. Texas hosts the high powered Angels and Blue Jays offenses and trying to avoid matchups against those two teams seems more justifiable. Still, with the way they’ve been pitching recently, you’re probably not going to sit Nathan Eovaldi or Jon Gray right now.
• The Rockies head out on the road next week but they’ve got two really bad matchups lined up which means you’re probably sitting their starters if you happen to be rostering any of them.
• Good luck trying to figure out which starters to start in that Dodgers-Giants series next weekend. Both teams have extremely low matchup ratings, a confluence of the home run friendly ballpark, the strength of San Francisco’s lineup on the road, and the always dangerous Los Angeles offense.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Pablo López
• Zack Wheeler
• Zach Eflin
• Logan Gilbert
• Charlie Morton
• Jesús Luzardo
• James Paxton
• Tanner Bibee
• Jon Gray
• Hunter Brown
• Chris Bassitt
• Joe Musgrove
• Tony Gonsolin
• Logan Webb

A couple of weeks ago, I went through my league 1 roster and outlined who I might use to try to buy as I make a run for the top of the standings. Today, we’ll go the other direction, using my Keep or Kut Listener League team as inspiration for a deep dive into who you should sell, should you need to sell.

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The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »

After rethinking what my Friday column looks like a few weeks ago, I wrote up some under-rostered relievers as the first step in reimagining this Tuesday column. This week, I’ll be looking at a few under-rostered starters who have been performing particularly well the past few weeks. I’ve split the article into pitchers rostered in more than and less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues to give a good spread of shallow and deep options.

Roster > 60%

You’ve probably heard that Michael Kopech has finally figured things out after really struggling to start off the year. Through his first eight outings, he had a 5.74 ERA that paled in comparison to his ghastly 7.30 FIP. He had allowed a whopping 12 home runs during that stretch, though his xFIP wasn’t much better at 5.78. His strikeout and walk rates were trending the wrong direction and he looked thoroughly cooked. Then, on May 19, he held the Royals scoreless across eight innings, striking out 10 and walking no one. Granted, it doesn’t take an ace to keep Kansas City off the scoreboard but Kopech has proven that it wasn’t just a fluke against a weak opponent. Across his last four starts, including the one against the Royals, he’s posted a 2.05 ERA backed by a 2.56 FIP and it looks like all his command woes have been put behind him; he’s running an outstanding 9.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this hot stretch. This stretch of success seemingly stems from a mechanical adjustment to reassert his talent.

Miles Mikolas has also put a rough start to the season behind him. Through his first five starts, his ERA and FIP stood at 7.46 and 5.49, respectively. Since then, they’re down to 1.82 and 2.98 in eight starts and he’s been particularly effective over his last three outings. I don’t think there’s any one thing driving his recent success, it’s simply a return to his ultra-efficient profile after a rough five start stretch in April.

Over his last four starts, Jack Flaherty has posted a 1.88 ERA and a 2.45 FIP with a decent 3.13 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That’s an improvement over his early season work that suffered from far too many free passes. The biggest difference has been a greater reliance on his fastball; he threw his heater around 37% of the time through the first eight starts of the season and that’s jumped up ten points over the last four. Tangibly, that’s resulted in a nearly five point increase in his zone rate and just eight walks during this stretch.

Clarke Schmidt just tossed his best start of the season against the Mariners last week, holding them scoreless over 5.2 innings with seven strikeouts. Across his last three starts, he holds a 2.07 FIP with a 3.40 strikeout-to-walk ratio. To me, the perception of Schmidt’s struggles this year are out of step with his peripherals — his strikeout and walk rates during this streak of strong starts are right in line with his seasonal averages — but two ugly starts against the Rays and Rangers where he allowed 12 runs marr his overall line. I think his improvement is linked to how he’s using his sweeper. In his first nine starts of the year, he located his big breaking ball in the zone a little over 50% of the time. That rate has fallen three points over his last three starts and his whiff rate with the pitch has seen a five point increase up to 32.5%.

Roster < 60%

Kyle Gibson has been a solid, if unexciting contributor for years. This season, his strikeout rate is down a bit, though it’s been offset by a drop in home runs allowed. A weird seven inning shutout against the Yankees a few weeks ago where he allowed two hits and four walks to go along with three strikeouts is throwing off his strikeout-minus-walk rate you see above. He’s actually been pretty good over his last four outings, with a 2.92 ERA and a 3.20 FIP.

Gibson’s teammate Dean Kremer has also been on a hot streak and it stretches all the way back to the beginning of May. Across his last six starts, he’s posted a 2.55 ERA and a 3.60 FIP with a pretty good 2.90 strikeout-to-walk ratio to back it up. He’s also done this against some of the best offenses in the league — the Braves, Rays, Angels, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Giants — which is a great sign for when he starts facing some weaker teams. His improvement likely stems from his fastball velocity which has now reached a career high of 94.9 mph on average.

A journeyman who has pitched in Korea in two separate stints, Ben Lively is making the most of his time in the majors with the Reds this year. Across four starts, he’s posted a 3.38 strikeout-to-walk ratio with a 3.33 ERA. The problem has been the home runs, particularly at home in the bandbox in Cincinnati; he’s allowed all five of his home runs at home which has caused his FIP to spike to 4.72. He’s a kitchen-sink righty with a fantastic slider fueling his high strikeout rate right now.

I had planned on writing up Alex Faedo in this space, but the Tigers just placed him on the Injured List with a finger injury. He suffers from the same problem as Lively: a fantastic strikeout-to-walk ratio is marred by far too many home runs allowed. Instead, I’ll highlight the prospect Detroit called up in Faedo’s place: Reese Olson. Command issues capped the potential ceiling of Olson despite possessing a wipeout slider. He threw that pitch a third of the time in his first major league start and it returned a 33.3% whiff rate. The thing to monitor for him will be his ability to locate his fastball. If he’s able to figure out his command issues, he’s got the deep repertoire to be able to produce in the Tigers rotation.

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature, primarily written by either Chad Young or Lucas Kelly, with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Read the rest of this entry »